Anticipating the Bounce Follow Up
Bullish
KSS- Nov 70's @ $1.70 today at $2.75 UP 61.8%
WCG- Nov 60's @ $2.50...exited on Friday on broken support LOSS
STA- Nov 50's @ $0.45 today at $0.85 UP 88.9%
SHLD- Nov 170's @ $7.10 today at $7.95 UP 12%
YUM- Nov 55's @ $1.70 today at $3.30 (Yes I held over earnings, I liked the risk) UP 94%
C- Nov 52.50's @ $0.25 today at $0.20 DOWN 20%
JBX- Nov 55's @ $2.60 today at $2.85 UP 10%
OMG- Nov 50's @ $1.10 today at $8.85 (Sweet) UP 704%
Bearish
UPL- Nov 45's exited on 10/10 with loss on higher high LOSS
EOG- Nov 60's exited on 10/12 when my trendline broke LOSS
RTP- Nov 180's exited with loss, broke resistance on 10/12 LOSS
Breakouts
USNA- Nov 50's @ $1.25 today at $1.75 UP 40%
FAST- Nov 40's @ $2.30 today at $3.50 UP 52%
HITT- Nov 50's @ $1.80 today at $4.20 UP 133%
VLO- Nov 59's @ $3.20 today at $4.65 UP 45%
For Matt
CTSH- Oct 75's @1.80 $ today at $2.75 UP 52.8%
Jeff,
When buying calls or puts, do you tend to trade the ATM option or one OTM? How do you account for delta? Your returns are awesome, and the loss can't be much because your options start out with a small value. I am interested to hear your strategy.
Thanks,
Amy Myers
Posted by Amy | 10/16/2006 12:45:00 PM
Jeff usually goes for OTM options.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/16/2006 02:25:00 PM
Jeff,
I also have the SHLD call option once it broke out of the cup and handle.. it was a profitable trade and then it turned today. Do you risk all the profit for the target? Does anyone have any good rule to protect profit? I usually only want to risk 20% of my profit to the up-sides.. obviously got stopped out a lot and then I re-enter when it shows strength again. Please advice.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/16/2006 08:54:00 PM
I'll answer for Jeff since i've heard the answer so much it haunts me...
The pattern has only failed when the stock reenters the breakout point. In fact, in most cases you should EXPECT a retest of old resistance as new support. Until the stock breaks new support, the pattern is still working for you.
If you're going to trade breakouts, you need to be willing to watch your gains evaporate and have patience. You were obviously expecting a much larger move in SHLD over a much longer time period. The stock will not hit its target in one quick move. there will be a series of ups and downs.
See CTSH for more on being patient with breakouts.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/16/2006 09:02:00 PM
Speaking of CTSH, why isn't that on the list?
In following the first post, I know that Jeff tends to buy OTM options, but I'm still wondering what more criteria there is than that.
The approach is not simply to buy one or two strikes OTM. Or is it?
I understand the IV smile with higher IV impact on pricing at ATM. But I still don't feel like I comfortably understand when and why to go OTM and when not.
Any help much appreciated.
matt
Posted by Anonymous | 10/16/2006 09:19:00 PM
Hey Matt,
The reason I didn't include it, was I was trying to follow up on the Anticipating the bounce trades, and the price pattern trades. For your convenience, I added it to the list. The list of stocks is not all my trades, just the ones I specifically mentioned I was following up on.
Brett, thanks for your post.
Jeff
Posted by Option Addict | 10/17/2006 08:34:00 AM
I was just online with one of my coaches and he recommended the "Anticipating The Bounce" search. Is there a difference between this search and "Anticipating The Bounce II", is one bullish and the other bearish??
Today was my first day on your blog and I'm looking forward to refering to it each and every day. Like most of us "Education is Key" and you are a true teacher. Thanks for asking for our input, I hope you can see that we are not just looking for your advice but your knowledge.
Thanks again.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/19/2006 07:16:00 PM