I was tempted to short oil at $55, and now trading at $51.88. So much for discipline. Oil ought to be breaking $50 shortly...can you believe it? Just 4 months ago analysts predicted 100-120$ per barrel.

Stocks still continue to be resilient. Today's gains were mostly driven by large caps rather than small caps. Look at the Dow components for example. Early today 29 of 30 were posting gains on the day.

A few of my favorites were moving higer... ICE, AZO, LAMR, LVS, PSA, BIDU, GLDN, etc.

Anyhow, I am busy as hell today (again) let's take another stock to analyze.


Todays price action was interesting. Many stocks advanced...but CROX on an intra-day basis reached resistance and turned down from it. I still think the outcome could be bullish, depending on this next retracement.

If this next retracement doesn't reach support back at $41.50ish, yet turns back up towards resistance, you are likely to see a cup and handle out of this stock. There are still plenty of buyers in this stock, according to the rise in volume on the way up to resistance. Definitely wait for a break of resistance in the $48 range to take this trade. Price target would be at least $6 over a 2 month period. Once it breaks I would go one strike out, and probably two months until expiration.

I love patterns with no ambiguity, and CROX looks like it could be a great cup and handle - one of my favorite patterns - if (big if) it breaks resistance after a short retracement in the next couple weeks.

Those of you in the SHLD trade with a cup and handle over a very long time frame had a great retest of support this week.

And how about that breakout on the NASDAQ! If you're using it as a leading indicator, you have to continue to be bullish.



When you say you were tempted to short oil at $55, can you tell me what vehicle you were planning on using? I'm familiar with puts on OIH, OIX and even USO, but are you referring to actual futures trading? I find myself trading the energy sector more and more and i'm curious about all available options.



Crude futures, Feb delivery. Plenty of leverage there. Although the stock you mentioned would have worked very well also.


I assume the NASDAQ you are referring to is the index indicator, however, somehow I pull out the chart on NDAQ and I see a similar scenario that Jeff was explaining earlier on CROX - potential cup and handle?? What do you think? Jeff?


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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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