So Much For a Counter-Fed Rally!

It is a little early to write it off, but I got a lot of questions about this over e-mail. After a Fed announcement sparks a big trend intra-day like we saw yesterday, it is common to see profits bleed off through the next trading day. The market is posting slight gains thus far which means... so much for history repeating itself.

Speaking of history repeating itself, I have a busy day today and need your help to get things rolling today. I have a deadline for an article that needs to be met by this afternoon. I am going to be occupied until I get that finished. In the meantime, let's get some use out of the comments feature below this article. Click on it and leave a comment, joke, personal story, picture, donation, personal attack, death threat, etc. Hopefully we can get some open dialogue here until I have a moment to offer a post. Thanks for your help.... (CRM), just broke thru strong resistance at $44 on good volume for a new all time high.
Andy Thomas

Hi Folks

CA has formed a cup and handle and is due to report earnings this evening at 5:00pm. If the report is good and it breaks the 25.50 mark tmw to could go to 29. Thoughts?


AMAG is bouncing off support with a lovely
amount of volume. I think it is is in the process of forming an ascending triangle. I'd prefer to enter here at the support bounce and ride it up to, and with any luck through, the breakout.

Valerie W


Be careful. I agree AMAG looks very tempting but the earnings announcement in today after market close. I will follow it tonight but I am too cautious to enter today.

Sean M.


AMAG posted results on January 25th, its CA that's reporting tonight.


Thanks Ken, you are right. Are you or anyone else looking at MLM? It looks like a very long and deep cup and handle with a recent breakout. Any thoughts?

Sean M.


I see the cup but not the handle. Either way, solid breakout.

AMAG looks great Valerie, but how did you play it? I had to go with a May $60 call. Everything's expensive and with length of the pattern i couldn't go just march. Jeff, this might be a good topic on how to play something like this.

I really like KYPH today on its retest.

Anyone in RIMM puts? Is it going to go down again here from resistance?

RTI has just broken out of a both a mini cup and handle (3 month chart) and a giant cup and handle (1 year). I hopped on the trade yesterday, sorry I missed posting it then. It ran again today, but the target is a $10 move on the small pattern.

Other interesting moves JCP, VIP, BOL, HANS, FLML. MA is sitting right at resistance, may break on earnings in a couple of days. Thanks to jeff, again, as many of those were on this weeks watch.


Hi Sean

I agree with Brett on MLM, I see the cup but not the handle, I like to see a good retracement before the breakout. (I like investopedias definition:

Nonetheless it is a nice break out and if you consider it as a flag pattern from January 10 at 100, to January 16th at 100, then this recent run should be good to 120.

NKE.. Breakout and just over the magic $100 ----

Thanks Ken,

Just in an effort to redeem myself, how about CROX for a nice cup and handle. It is at support and is up in after hours trading. I am already in this one so I have my fingers crossed.
I tried to get into KYPH at the market close but it did not fill. There is always the morning.

Sean M.


I didn't like the spread on the options, so I bought the stock on AMAG.

I also bought the stock on X yesterday because after lamenting about not getting in on Tuesday afternoon, can you believe that I sat there and watched it take off Wednesday morning without getting in right away?!! It had given me the perfect opportunity to jump in but because I never really planned out what exactly I was going to do the next day, I missed it. What am amateur!!!! Anyway that was a good learning experience. My mind knew I wanted in but failed to follow through with PLANNING exactly what it was I was going to do the next day. I am happy with myself that I didn't chase the trade and get in at 83 or 84 in the morning but instead took an entry after it pulled back to 82 in the afternoon. Now my stock funds are pretty much used up so if i want in anything else, options it will be!

I was in RIMM puts and got out already. I was in on the 18th and got out on the 24th and then watched it drop the next 4 days! (That's always fun) Good luck on that one!


Thanks Sean

Crox looks like a great play, I'm looking at it two ways -the short term move ( c 4 dollars over two weeks) based on the ascending triangle over the last 10 days price action or a more intermediate play based on the cup and handle - (c 9 dollars over two months)



I don't think Crox is a great play. I see the cup and handle, but the breakout has not fully materialized (no volume to confirm). Consider on 2 strong days in the market, the stock is stalled at this $52 resistance level, and has hit its head on it 5 times now in the last 2 weeks. Perhaps I am wrong, but I got out yesterday.


Also take a look at EQIX, another cup and handle with a limp breakout.

The best thing you have going for you is 1) i dumped Crox and 2) I said it isn't going higher. Those 2 points alone should be good for $6 of upside at least. If I take Crox off my watchlist, i could EASILY get you a $10 move up.


I am still enjoying my Utah Liveworkshop experience from January. I haven't posted here in a while but thought I would post my take on MLM. I have been following it for quite sometime playing different strategies as it makes it's moves. I have to say that it is a Cup & Handle with solid confirmation which includes the Bull Flag formation for the Handle. This is a great clue to what the pattern really is and how it should respond. It has "followed" the rules so to speak for both the Cup & Handle and the Bull Flag. It has a good basis to move in a fairly predictable/manageable path. BTW: I entered back when it broke out of the Bull Flag with April $115 Calls. I have also included a couple of my charts for your review and comments. I hope that helps regarding the MLM question of a Cup & Handle or not?


Randy B.

Overall Cup & Handle Formation:

Bull Flag (Handle) Formation:


Great post. Can you please explain your images. I loved them and it must be a great way to log your trades and follow them.

Sean M.


Thanks for the kind words. I stumbled across this method a while back and have been using it as a way to capture my charts and store the files in my Trading log.

I use Screenprint32 for the screen capture. It is a Free download at:

I use imageshack to create a weblink if I want to post a link for others to see. You can daccess it at:

I hope that helps? I also hope the MLM charts will help you and others to see a really good example of a live Cup & Handle with a classic Bull Flag for the Handle (the best kind).


Randy B.

How about another discussion on technical indicators. I saw Kelly Allman use the Chaiken Money Flow indicator on Master Talk last night. How does it complement other technical indicators?


Thanks, it helps alot and I am excited about capturing the charts with my studies on them as a means to more closely monitor their progress. I don't know about you, but if I have a number of positions open at one time I feel I don't do as good a job of tracking them and this info. will certainly help.
I certainly enjoy this blog and the people on it.

Sean M.

Thanks Brett

Good points on CROX. It would need a break above $52 before I get in. If it does not do that in the next 2-3 trading days then I will pass as the ascending triangle will have failed by that point also.

Yep, happens me about twice a month still, take it off your watchlist and go back and look at it a few days later and the thing has sky rocketed - go figure !

Hey Randy

That is really nifty software, thanks for the links. I am still not seeing the handle of the cup on MLM though, are you calling the flag part of the bull flag pattern the handle? Does the retracement not have to deeper than this to call it a handle? Would be great to get clarification from the man himself, how about it Jeff?

I bought the March 65 call on MGM breakout on Tues 1/23 for 6.6. Got stopped out on 1/30 with a close below 67.5. Stock has been up about 2.5 per day each of the past 2 days. Today the stock at 72.48 and the March 65 call is at 8.8.
Enough to drive you crazy sometimes.
Thanks for letting me vent.
Mark P

Glad you liked the links. Hope they help. As for the Handle? Here is a link to a great pattern site. This is where I have learned the best information for patterns. He is a very dedicated trader who writes some great stuff.



In regards to Bretts comments about
how his actions seem to make stocks
move one way or another, I know you
are joking, but that way of thinking lost me $5,000.00. I have
realized that anytime I thought I
could predict the future and had expectations or hope I would get let down, that would keep me in bad trades and got me into them in the first place.What I am doing now
is trading flags and cup&handles there is no hope or expectations involved,I get in based on rules and I get out based on rules. I am
never wrong or right, I am just following a map.There is nothing personal about it.There is no excitment either way it goes. I have a wife and kids to provide me
with the emotional rollercoaster ride. sincerely, STEVE


just look at CROX today and tell me if i was only joking!

Brett's Trade Of The Day:

NYX sold off hard this morning after earnings and has now rallied back to the century mark showing lots of strength If it can hold this level, the ascending triangle is still in place. A trendline bounce up to $110 resistance with a shot at a breakout is great risk/reward for me on a great stock in a hot sector. Plus, plenty of time until the next earnings report.


Brett thought AMAG looked good! :)



I held NYX over earning after getting in on the bounce on 1-24.

just kidding Brett!

Valerie W

NYX indicated stiff competition hurt their earnings. Notice ICE is up $5 on the news. They announce on Monday.

Joel R.

Gol, darn it I missed the moved on CROX today. Brett the next time you dump something from your watch list, email me.

By the way, I just dumped XOM from my bearish watch list.


X- Im getting rich off of it!

Hey Randy

Thanks for the pattern site link, there seems to be lots of different definitions for cup and handles out there. But I like the one on the pattern site which calls for a one week retracement. Up to this I would have looked for a deeper retracement. Thanks, this blog is great for my education.

I'm calling a couple of down days for the Dow, looks like its hitting resistance and is about to retrace a few points. DIA puts could be a decent play?

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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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