BBOX. has news of CEO resigning but is breaking down out of symm triangle
Ladd

Did anyone take the ITW trade look at today's candle wow!!
That is called patience and not panicking

I took the trade when it broke out of the channel and then it went back inside without asking me. I said I am staying because it is still in the channel. I did not think it was going to come out so abruptly.

OXM low risk entry for a bear play
right now

Brett,
Thanks so much! I am pretty frustrated right now on a couple of fronts not just trading so need to step back and re-evaluate as stops are still killing me today and I have been moving to contingent based on stock but did not have time to convert them all and now am paying the price. Your wisdom is right on as I think I do wait a bit too long to get in and then try to be patience and in the cases of my PUTs was in too long. As I watched those virtual profits become real losses today. PLCE and ASEI were good trades and I did not intend to hold over earnings but could not get to my computer yesterday (feel stupid about this.) I need to spend some time with the coaches today. Thanks for the comments I need them today and all are welcome.

nice bounce on fslr lets see if it holds!

OXM, I am going to wait for a good break below $45 with good volume
Ladd

Bob and Pam,

Commenting on the last post of 5/21. Coming back at you with support. I feel the pain too. I can relate where you are coming from. My LVS Put did the same thing to me this morning. I was up 90% on closing yesterday and upon opening down 22%. All in a moment and the stock is still going up. All my puts are up and 1/2 my calls are down. FSLR went bad for me also. Bought it on 5/4 when it broke out with volume. Giving it room to move I stayed in until it broke it's channel yesterday. I just recently changed all my channel lines using a line graph instead of drawing the channel off a candle graph. This was per Jeff's suggestion. Took me all day Sunday to change all my charts. I truly believe this is a better system and gives you a more accurate picture of whats going on. Lived by my rules and waited until the end of the day to get out of FSLR when it broke the channel. Took a 3% loss which is triple my 1% rule. Now today it is up $1.50 and touching the channel again. If I would of drawn the channel off the candles I would still be in the trade. To date this is the story of my trading life. I go ahead two small steps and feel good and then take one big step back. I have decided to change my rules as a result of this. If I buy in on a breakout in mid channel, I will be getting out if it breaks horizontal support instead of waiting for it to test the channel support to limit my loss. Taking a $200.00 loss is much better than the $1,106.00 loss I took. Bought ARW yesterday instead of WNR due to greater % volume increase. I felt both had the same reward/risk. ARW had 111% volume increase to WRS's of 48%. Today ARW down 1.55% and WNR up 1.35%. Story of my trading life. Had 2 good trades and I chose the wrong one.

The bright side is that I am learning a whole bunch and go forth with confidence knowing that my profitable trading days will come as I put in the effort necessary to learn. When I have reached out to Jeff he is there and ALWAYS willing to take his valuable time to assist and teach me. I will continue to grow, learn and know I will always receive support and strength from this site.

May all our trading days be better each day as we grow and progress.

Bruce Staggs

Bob (and Pam) and Bruce,

I believe I win the "stupid" trader award today. I decided yesterday to hold ASEI over earnings. I first reduced my postion by 60% and then studied the company and thought risking the remaing 20% was worth the risk.

Well, I forgot to follow one of my own rules, to check the short interest on a downtrending stock. ASEI's short interest was very high. Arghh! stupid me. However, live and learn at least I stayed within my acceptable loss %.

Glenn

Bruce:
Do not cut ARW out. I think your problem is the same as I used to have. Stocks do not move only in one direction. No one knows when the exact time to get in or out. You get that with experience and trial and error. There are millions of traders that bought a particular stock in different time tables so they will take profits and losses at different times. Just because your stock goes down early in the day does not mean it is over, the trend is still there.

FSLR I do not know why you got out as support held, maybe it broke it intraday, but it is till there.

You have to take the trade as a probable gain, there are no systems or ways to predict a market, with patterns you put odds in your favor.
Look at ITW trade would you have gotten out?

Give trades time, play puts and calls on different stocks. Do not be afraid to let your virtual profit go up in smoke It may come back.

You will be surprised of how many trades go the way the chart told you it would go if you just let them play out.

You can't predict daily fluctuations.

Last month I had three losing trades that by expiration magically became winners, I was ok with losing the premium, because i was only getting back 20c out of 1.20, therefore I asked myself, is there a chance for it to come back, yes a small chance, stock is still trending the right way and it is within support.

Hope that helps, use mistakes as learning experience.

Jeff,

I like JCP as a put play turning down from diagnal support. It does not look like a pattern trade to me but rather a bounce off resistance.

Bob and Pam, Bruce... remember you are going to make thousands of trades to get to where you want to be. The LVS trade was a good trade. You can't help an event driven spike up (MGM news).

Jamie

Check out the flag pole on AH!

RIMM looks to be breaking out of its flag today. Mike M

Everyone,
Take a look at a potential double bottom forming on INFY.

Needs confirmation but I think looks promising.

Rd

JCP

I've been watching this trade also, but I haev a support line at $78, where the stock opened on crazy volume 5/17...So for me, a bit too risky unless I got in right at resistance ($80, or get break of support at $78.....at least that is my take on it...

Jenifer,

I take it you missed the AH trade I discussed here on the blog. We took down a trade prior to the rumors of a buyout. However, the stock has been bought out, so it's best to leave this one alone. Big spikes in price like that are not always considered flagpoles. If they occur for reasons like this, then this negates the promise of any pattern. Hope that helps...

Jeff

Bruce, WOW - It sounds so similar just different tickers. I have thought that so many times that between the two the stocks I was looking at the one I selected looked better and then I buy and it tanks and the other one rockets to the moon. Well ok not always but like you it happens enough to notice. I thought I was learning and getting this and now am not sure. I have never given up on anything and will not this either, just feel like it. Thanks for the support. Strange that it means so much from people that I have never met! I have not wanted to bug Jeff (other than through CAST and the blog) but I think that is about to change as I have to change and learn to achieve better success. Thanks again.

Stop losses...

I took the PENN trade on 5/2, with a stop loss (mental) of $48.50 as opposed to a an actual stop loss order. Had I had a stop loss on my trade I would have been stopped out of the trade with a loss on 5/8.

Stuck to my rules, and letting this winner run...it took time and patience, but it is paying off...

Thanks for the post on RIMM.
Great volume and definitely a breakout.

Jennifer,
AH is being acquired. Not a good trade (my opinion)

jeff...im watching HLT short. big chart has been going south and i think the hotels will suffer just like the casino's were until todays buyout news. also look at MAR. both have gone sideways to down in this market
brendan
ca

REDF

Sitting right at support ($18.50)Someone told me that this company is a potential takeover target by google. Has anyone heard this in the past? I heard it earlier in the year and have been watching it but have yet to take a trade....

Any thoughts, comments??

Anyone know what's going with this squirrely market?! >:-O

I just about hopped out of a couple of trades initially busting support levels, although was waiting as long as possible, now things are turning around for the 'calls'

Long: AMG, DECK, GS, SUN, TSO,

Short: AVB, DDR, HNI

Anyone else having issues with there prophet charts? Mne working like molassis, and daily charts load like the Yankess have been playing baseball.

Don't have access to Prophet Charts, but the Investool charts are slloooooowww too...

Bob R,
That is just what happened to me with my stop on PENN. One reason I have to relook at what I am doing as it is not working. Thanks for the perfect example.
I have noticed a trend, on the worst days in my trading the Prophet Charts are down or having problems...scary.
Chris, I am in big need of some hammers here in Calif.

Bob and Pam

I hear ya on the invest tools charts. I will be looking at other options when my subscription is over, they have proven to me to be unreliable, way too often.

Anyone else use other services??

Bob, Bruce, and all,
TSO and MSM are my recent "shot myself in the foot trades." I thought I was being patient, but as the stocks broke out of their diagonal support lines, I exited the trades. I followed my rules, but that is probably where I went wrong. The next day both stocks bounced off what seemed to be horizontal support. Now, my rules suggest that I define horizontal support first, then diagonal. Horizontal support seems to be more reliable and less subjective. I also use line charts (thanks to Jeff and Tim).
I too feel like I can take one step forward and two steps back. I believe that using our available resources...Jeff, Blog, Market Cast, and our unwillingness to throw in the towel will make us take more steps forward.
With that in mind, let's keep our chins up, learn from our mistakes and find another profitable trade.

With all that said...I refuse to shoot myself in the foot. So, I am asking for help on BNI. I entered the trade at the end of April. Since then, it has made higher lows, higher highs. I normally would have exited this trade two weeks ago, but patience has paid off. Now, I feel like I am giving back my paper profits. After learning so much from all of you, my thought is to stay in the trade to see if it bounces off the 30 day MA or around its old high.
Thoughts please!!

David S,

Thanks for the comments. Still in ARW and don't plan on getting out until it breaks support. Yes I agree, even though it is in an up trend, it doesn't mean it's going to go up every day.

Regarding FSLR I agree it didn't break the channel if you had drawn your channel off candle chart. As I explained I drew mine off a line chart. This it clearly broke. This coupled with the fact that I was down 3%, when I have a rule of limiting my losses to 1%, is why I got out. If I had gotten out with a 1% loss it would of been less painful. If it would of dropped again it would of been more painful. Easy to know which way to go in hind sight. If I had gotten out at 1% by getting in today, I would of only had to make up a 1% loss, plus additional commissions, instead of 3%.

My thoughts and following my rules, late but following them.

Again thanks for the comments

Bruce

Jamie,

Yes I believe the LVS trade was a good one. Have no feelings about it being a bad one. The stock just reacted to news.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Bruce

BNI

I entered BNI on 5/16. It is retesting support (and holding) at $92. Depending on your rules, when you entered, how long your time frame is...etc..that will tell you what to do. Patience.......let the trade pass of fail. I am out of it on a close (not intra day) below $91.50, ( my target is $98 as a minimum) .....if that helps...

Bob,
BNI
My target was 97.50 and my exit was 91.45...very close to your's. I am proud that I actually saw it like someone else. I do not have a time frame exit...I have done that in the past to see the stock bounce a day or two later. I guess that is me trying to kill myself with patience. Do you mind sharing your rule for exiting a trade when it doesn't do what you want in a specific time?

can anyone name some casino, or oil, or transport stocks??? i have a difficult time when, for instance, someone says that casino stocks are rising, but i dont know what are the symbols for those stocks. Thank you for your help.

DE

For each, pull up one using the Investools charts, then below the chart click on the Big Chart 'name', which will list many in that industry.

Casino: LVS, WYNN, PENN, and others

Oil: SUN, VLO, TSO, XOM, and others

Water Transport: OSG, DRYS, ONAV and others

In oil, there are actually many different/separate industry groups, so you can look at different ones to pull up different aspects of the overarching industry... Make sense?

Amy,

I have lost a lot of profits, and in some cases taken uneccesary losses, because my options ran out of time. Had I had more time, almost every one of those trades was a winner. My biggest losers are due to being impatient and exiting before they close below a support line or becuase I simply did not buy enough time.

Now I buy the right amount of time (based on Jeff's pattern classes), or more. I exit the trade if it closes below my mental stop. That is the easy exit.

If the trade reaches my target price before my time frame, I look for support areas and exit the trade if the price closes below a support area, and I do look at candles and volume for clues as well.


PATIENCE has been the big winner for me.

Also, and I think the biggest reason folks lose money on trades, is because they enter a trade without having the entire trade planned out on paper first, and poor position sizing. If you have your entry, exit and target all planned out first, and follow your rules, then emotion should have nothing to do with your trades. You look at the chart, and act based on facts, what you see, not emotion.

Of course, easier said then done...

This is why I am hot for Jeff to get a live chat feature here..that would be a great tool. Lot's of people want immediate access to questions and answers....I am one of them!! LOL...

Hope this helped!!!!

Patience is over-rated. I get much more satisfaction from screaming, cursing and waving my arms about wildly while I wait for things to work out.

REITS are trying my patience right now. (Slow, deep breaths...)

Interesting candle on PLCE today. After rampaging higher on the earnings it has fallen back below the resistance at the apex of the previous sym triangle. If you check KSS, JCP, COH and the retail segment all are showing weakness after popping on their earnings. I smell more downside for PLCE.

MikeH

Mike,

You caught me on the patience thing. I am on my third computer monitor this month. You name it, I've thrown it.... Everything except the yuengling...

Fellow Addicts,

I couldn't respond earlier because I've been in class all day. Now that my brain is completely fried I probably won't be coherent. Just wanted to say that not only did I have dinner with Jeff last night but also got to meet the lovely Amber who is stunningly beautiful as well as SMART. What a handsome couple they make! And a truly delightful evening.

Doji Girl

I have been reading on the sidelines and have actually tried several times to post, but with no success. Is anyone taking the support trade for X givin the downgrade from Goldman today? Dare to venture?

Christine Lumia

Karen,

Thanks again for dinner last night. It was fun for me to meet some of the "addicts" Jeff talks to everyday. I am still in negotiations with Jeff to make it down to the beachs of FL this year. Lets make plans to go dancing....I will get Jeff on the dance floor if its the last thing I do!

Hope you enjoyed your visit to Utah, including the Dewers on the rocks with salt!

Amber K