Hey look everyone, it's a runaway freight train!!! The Dow and S&P are tanking as the day ends. Interesting. Why are all my puts going up today?

TMX is risking being booted, it's a shame, as it looked like such a good setup. I'll give it some latitude today but tomorrow I won't be so magnanimous.

Jeff, thanks for the new thread, we almost broke the 200 mark on the last one. I really like FFH.

Bob R,

No luck on X huh. It's below my support...looks like I'm out.

Just bailed on PAY and KOMG too.

I bailed on X, went short CEG..

I also took my really nice profits from DO off the table, along with PCU earlier today..

Protect your profits...

Only had 3 puts, two went up today...go figure. The other SBUX is doing okay, but not great down.

Other positions still above their support, so will hold. Unlike many others, didn't have big winners to take profits, except JCOM, still making money in this market, although will continue to hold that for the time being.

Looks like a fun day tomorrow, probably down would be my guess! Be ready!!!

Hey Chris, I just entered TMX today. Still looks good to me and super low risk at this point. The volume on this sell off toward the close isn't convincing me. I may regret that statement tomorrow! But I'm with you -- it's do or die for TMX tomorrow. Ok, actually, do or hold or die.

Also got in HMIN. Exited KMX today but still sticking with everything else.

PAY "magically" closed right at 37, my line in the sand. I'm also still in KOMG.

PFCB is still going down. I'm still holding one contract after selling off the others. KIM also doing nicely.

SPX Looks like a double top if it breaks below 1500.

Any Thoughts ?

I bailed on several positions as well for a profit earlier today. But this afternoon I needed tourniquet!! Periods of losses usually preceded periods of good trading!(a quote from the "Way of the Turtle")

Hey Jeff-

Thanks for the list. Always much appreciated. They all look pretty textbook to me. Bought some HURN this afternoon.

TMX got away from me late it the day. Probably should have bailed, but I didn't catch the move. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Still hanging onto X that I re-entered on 6/14 thinking it was my old buddy. Another one that might get closed down depending on how tomorrow goes.

Cheers!

Peter V

GOOG

I hope no one committed hairy carey and jumped ship. GOOG went right down to where I expected it to on a day like this..support..

I may add to my position tomorrow......

My X left me...oh well...win some, lose some, but I did get out with a profit!!

Chris, hope it is not too hot for you and one good thing about SoCal is that when the market is closed you still have all afternoon.
For those of you that watch futures I have found lately it has not seemed to mean much. Like today at market open A/D = 8/5 Cap was $618,000/$58,000 so looked like a great Bull day - wrong! Look where we are now 2/10 and $1,079,000/$78,363,000.
I held everything but some are very very close. Mostly when I sell off on days like today I regret it the next day or two. I think X, BA and KOMG may get the axe tomorrow though.

I exited my TMX calls and bought puts on it. Like Jeff always says, a symmetrical triangle can break either way. I tried to jump the upside breakout using the current trend. It didn't work, so i took the loss and i'll try and ride the breakout the other way. It's a 6 point move which coincides nicely with the long term trendline below. Hopefully the whipsaw stays in the shed.

Brett ... you might review AMX ... I've had great success with that one in the same sector ... been in it for quite a while and it hasn't busted support yet.... started trend line at 41.46 ... on 3/5 ... I got in on 3/28 ..

It was down today ... if it goes below 61.50.. I'm out ..

Just a thought!

Brett, I'm still in TMX to the upside, I realize you have to move fast with a symmetrical triangle being it can move either way. After hrs. its up $1.00 w/ 66,000. vol. maybe I will get a pass early tomorrow?

Optionfanatic, congrats if you're right for hanging on!

Those after hours prices are just evidence of a rape. The current ask is below the day's closing price, so use that as your guide.

Brett Thanks for the input. I will be diligent for the first few minutes of trading.

Brett...

As usual, your humor got me again..RAPE...now cheescake all over my keyboard...

Optionfanatic...

I'm right there with you on TMX...I held my calls also..

X, TMX, AMZN, VIP....all down today but the volume was average to low....

Holy crap what did you guys do;)!

Nice lunch at Islands with the kids, watch them run around in the fountain, beautiful pasadena day. Come back.....!Lucy you got some splaining to do.

Still feel okay, X right at my line see tomorrow. POT typical pull back, STR same thing. NYX had me scared, but I'll take it.PCU okay

Tomorrow will tell.

Grant

A nice thing about this blog is that we have a great support group for days like today. We all took some hits.

Briefing.com had this to say about the end of day sell off:

'There isn't a definitive answer, but a plausible explanation relates to reports that Bear Stearns may be shutting two mortgage hedge funds due to losses suffered in the wake of the subprime fallout.

A whiff of this possibility sparked spillover concerns that hit the broader market in a sell-first-ask-questions-later move ...'

All of us have learned to practice good risk management so we'll be okay.

--Patti

Wow...got back this afternoon from NY and 5 days of (almost)no trading just in time to see the market take a poop. The good news is I had unloaded everything except PCU on the bullish side, leaving me with HNI, AMAG, NYX (jury is still out on that one), QID and SDS.

It's hard to catch up with all the activity around here! I think I'll start fresh and try to find one or two bullish plays to balance things out. I keep seeing great bearish possibilities though, like ESS, which looks like it's ready for another leg down.

Patti,

Good post. Coincidentally, BSC is this weeks Trade of the Week!

Hey Jeff, here's an idea for mastertalk if it's not too late. If it is too late, maybe a future topic:

How about an in depth study on how to analyze the markets. Perhaps looking at some specific periods of history on the indexes and how to "react" as you go along. And maybe a discussion of some strategies to employ in different market conditions.

Hey Brett-

I respect your ability to quickly and decisively switch sides on TMX. No hemming and hawing. If I'm rewarded for staying bullish, it will me more luck than skill. Look forward to tracking this one.

Peter V

What a crappy day in the market.
Is that what that toilet picture is all about? Or maybe it's time to buy POT. It's getting close to a support line.

I took some profits, got stopped out of some things, then went and watched a movie.

Grant and Liz,
Thanks for the picks. Watched "Iron Will" with my kids. I love movies that are clean that I enjoy too that I can watch with the kids. Your kids will probably love the movie "Balto," too.

Well, what will tomorrow bring us?
KIM puts looking good, but PAY is gone away. Good riddance, I say. Okay, Bob. Maybe that will work in your next poem.
Yes, Bob, I have hung onto my GOOG as well as some POT and MLM. Still got my GS. Took my profits on BEN. Was just too tempting. Glad I did, because they all disappeared at the end of the day and it would have been cash out of my pocket. I think X is right at support, so I'm still in (stock play, though.)

Okay. You guys have a great evening. Gonna grill some burgers and get ready for a new day tomorrow.

Michelle

"See" you all at Jeff's MT tonight.

Boy days like today it is great to have the option addict family. I have begun to move out of all of my positions as I am going out of the country soon. I was short IFN because and because it was showing weakness I bought it back.

I am holding on to GRMN because it just doesn't seem to have any reasonable support. My stop is still quite a ways down.


I am going to follow my rules but maybe a confirmation of my support line would help ease my pain.

Any ideas?

Chin up, head high all!

Cheers

Not that I am trying to know why but what is up with that 12:16pm (my time) candle on DBV today? Bad entry?

anybody else having trouble listening to today's marketcast?


Michelle

Michelle,

This happened one day last week or week before, it was corrected within a couple of hours, hopefully the same here. We can listen to it after Mastertalk or tomorrow if you have to go "night, night" before it's fixed!

Hang in there!

Can't get the Cast to work here either. Only yesterday's plays...after the MT for me too me thinks.

Hi Arty,

I was just wondering if you have any sort of trailing stop to protect your profits. Do you mind if I ask when you got into GRMN and what your initial target was? If you got in at the beginning of the last move up, I think your target should have been reached. Right now it is sitting at the 62% retracement and I am currently waiting to get back in on confirmation of the next bounce higher. The last move up with nearly $10 and it had to take a breath at some point. The volume is definately lower on the past 2 down days so it is likey to assume that it will bounce again in the same manner as the past 3 flags it has made. Maybe just a trailing stop is all you need. I hope this helps a little. Take care man.

Stephen

Arty-

It looks like it's come down and hit its trendline today. Since the middle of May it's been using the 10 day moving average more or less as support.

liz

Hey Traders--Marketcast is working fine for me so far.

LisaG

Seriously... what happened? I left for a few hours today to run some errands and blah, blah, blah and I come back and the market finally decided to make a break down.

Jeff-

I like the charts. Think the stocks look good. Big fan!

Couple of music titles for today...

Don't Panic-Cold Play

Where Is My Mind-The Pixies

Bottom of a Barrel-Amos Lee

Boys Don't Cry-The Cure

Break on Through (To the Other Side)-The Doors

I've Got You Under My Skin-Michael Buble version

Cast is working now. It is strange to me that Jeff is on the left and Eric on the right now.

Don't forget that the marketcast is also available as a podcast and downloadable now. That's always an option if the streaming version has issues.

Bob(and Pam)-

What am I missing? Where do you see Jeff and Eric together on the cast?

Tim-
Thanks for the reminder.

liz

Bob(and Pam)-

Okay, now that I'm listening to the cast I know now what you're talking about.

liz

Seriously, why cant Jeff get a little love on the main Investools page? I see a picture with an Utley, but no Kohler. I give it 1 more day before I take to the streets in protest. Whos with me?

Anyone on MT right now? This new search is SICK. If it works the way it’s supposed to, I may not even have to think about my trades anymore…which would actually work in my favor.

Cheers,
Dave

I wouldn't worry about the picture protest. I don't think Jeff cares. I don't care whose picture is up there. I am just glad that Barba guy doesn't come up anymore when I load up Investools.



Michelle

Unfortunately, I never get to listen to the Master Talks until much later. Wish I could listen to them in real time. I've missed so many because of "technical problems" with Investools. Oh, well.

liz

Dave,

Please expand on this new sick search.

Brett,
Apparently the search has been available from Prophet.net for a while, but it’s new to the INVESTools’ site. It searches out nearly all price patterns in the market(s) of your choice…those that are forming or those that have completed…plots the s/r lines, highlights the target areas, calculates the time-to-complete, the ROI, etc. I think it can even auto-add them to a watch list.

Anyway, Jeff effectively tempered my enthusiasm when he admitted that he doesn’t really use it because he doesn’t believe a computer can find these patterns as well as a human could. It might be time to fire Deep Blue back up…I smell a showdown.

He makes a good point, but it might be a useful tool for people having trouble seeking out these patterns without pre-existing watch lists.

Dave

The IT coaches have had this tool as Dave said through Prophet for sometime now. In fact it was an upgrade sales pitch to me once at an Adv Opt class. Some think it is great and others are more in line with Jeff. Once it is available to the masses, like us, I plan to give it a go and see for myself.
Good class though, thanks Jeff!
You guys see the futures A/D? Looks Bullish again...

I am still in KOMG but I was frustrated as to why it continues to NOT breakdown. I dug a little tonight and it seems that there have been rumors of a hedge fund/private equity buy out over the past few weeks. But, on top of that....it looks as if late last week there was some Insider Buying of several thousand shares. If I am reading that correctly....along with the recent technical action....the next day or two will be very interesting. Perhaps someone out there knows something and is quietly buying the stock. I don't like the feeling I am getting on this one. Not sure if I am being impatient or paranoid....but something seems wrong. No obvious reason why it has continued to go up on decent volume....unless...

Chuck from Orlando

I am in KOMG too and Chuck with your research it just adds to my planning to exit if it starts to fill that gap tomorrow. Unfortunately, I have to make up my mind within first two hours of trading as I am out the rest of the day. Thanks for sharing what you found.

Chuck-

Thanks for the added info. I too am out tomorrow (like Bob) depending on what KOMG does. But technically it doesn't look bad. It just looks like it's testing previous resistance. At least, that's what it looks like to me. I have a horizontal line around where it closed today and a trendline right there as well. So if it passes both of those exit lines for me, I'm out. The volume was less than average today but... I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings. On the marketcast Jeff made a comment about watching it closely. And since I'm in it, I am.

liz

Chris-

How's that sunburn? Do you think Catherine will be bringing out the bag of hammers for a different reason this time? Does she know you wear socks with sandals? Hey, Bob and I warned you. I'll be bringing up a pair of socks for you when we get to Edmonton to replace the ones you wore in the sand.

Bob-

Should I say have fun tomorrow? Is it a having fun sort of thing? We'll keep an eye on the market for you while you're away. Maybe Brett will suck down some WMs and eat a bunch of burritos for us and Bob will carry us away with his poetry and maybe Tim can do some technical wizardry to make the markets look better. And of course Jeff (The Dude) will grace us with his presence and everything will be good. How does that sound? But hey, whatever the markets bring we'll be ready, right?

Good night people! I'm super tired and if I don't get some sleep soon I won't be able to make it the rest of this week. Yes, I know there's only two more days but I'm super tired.

Okay, I've said a lot but I just have to add... good ole steady VOLV.

liz

Stephen and Liz,
Thanks for the ideas. Here we go, I have the July 60's and I added around 63 on the bounce off of the flag. I have a stop set at 67.50 because that is the only place I could find support.

I have profits to take but my big concern is not letting the winner run.

Do the after hours figures mean anytjhing by the way?

If anyone has Oakley (OO), they are being taken out by Luxotica (LUX) for $29.30/share. So if you had the foresight, congrats! :-)

To all,

Just want to share my frustration when Jeff's master talk on webex doesn't get recorded. Usually, listen Thursday mornings and it looks like it didn't get recorded
:(

Ron

Good Morning Arty,

If I understand correctly, you purchased your July 60's when the stock price was at $63? That is a great entry price and the stock followed through beautifully. Can you tell me what your intial target was? Have you had a chance to read through the Advanced Technical material? If so, youll read that you can set a target for a flag break by measuring the distance of the flagpole. The pole here was formed from 5/29 to 5/31. The measure would be 66.39-59.50=$6.89. If you take the 6.89 and add it to the breakout area of 64.50 - then you will get a target of 71.39. It closed at 71.89 on 6/18. I have been taught that it is not resonable to expect it to go much further beyond your target - but you can lock in a certain percentage of your profits and see if it will still run once your target is hit. In this case, the stock exceeded the target and you maybe would have moved your trailing stop to give it a little room to move. If it had not been hit on the 19th, there is no reason it should not have been hit on the 20th. If it did not trigger on the 20th, then the stop was too loose.

Arty, this is obviously just my observation and you may trade completely different than me. Hopefully this help a little. Take care man.

Stephen

Wow,
Are you guys night owls?


Michelle

Goodmorning, Everything is flat, record highs overseas! What is the word on Energy? Any guesses!

Good morning
The pattern search that Dave was referring to from ProphetCharts is available at OptionsXpress if anyone still has an account there.

Toni

Top of the muffin to everyone

I was wondering if anyone can give me their opinion concerning something I was wondering about. I've been looking at a lot of beautiful bearish setups on stocks that look great on the Big Chart. For instance, SCHN: nice bear flag, bearish engulfing candle at resistance, but the Iron and Steel Industry is ranked #96 and has been in the 'green' zone for over 2 months. Do you guys stay away from this and move on to another chart? I know there are always better setups out there, I am just curious. I have tons more examples if anyone wants to check 'em out.

Thanks in advance

Stephen

Liz, thanks and hope you got some sleep. I will be in business meetings so not just fun but since it is my business if the meetings are successful that would be real fun. I have been watching the futures this morning and at 9:10am it looked Bullish and then a couple minutes later Bearish and then big bearish. Now appears to be headed stronger in that direction, if it holds after open.
On my list of at the edge are BA, KOMG, TEX and X.

Check out ROST. Broke a channel of 31.50 - 35.00. And now it is retesting the bottom of it. I think a nice play is the August 35 puts. I just got filled at 4.00 - that is paying .05 for time value.

Stephen

Bob,
Yeah, I got into BSC. Moving nicely as are all my other PUTS. Got stopped out of BA, X, GS. They were right there and couldn't hang onto any more down movement.

We'll see what today holds. I had a weird dream the night before last. I killed a bear with one shot from a shotgun. I hope that means that one bear day is all we'll have. Or it could have been something I ate. (laughter.)

Michelle

Good Morning everyone!

Just had an interesting experience when attempting to get BSC this AM.

I had a Limit Order in for Oct 135 Put at $6, which was ~$0.40 above yesterday's ask price. This AM the stock opened slightly down and this option was below $6, although it didn't fill.

I called TOS, they called the exchange and TOS was told that the contract was filled although there is a problem on the floor and "the pipes are slow". I now see that I was filled at 0835, although it didn't show up for another 10 minutes or so.

If you don't get an expected fill, don't hesitate to call your broker to confirm what happened or not. They are there to serve and assist you in the market!

Best of Luck today!!!

My husband bought GLBL calls a while back and they are just steady eddie. Still holding strong. Looks like a great entry point if anyone else is interested. Hasn't had any bad movement even with the market being all over the board lately.
DE is holding at support today and BHI is heading up as are all the oil plays.
KIM is moving down as is ESS.

Michelle

Kill that bear! Speaking of bears I had a bear of a time getting into BSC and finally just placed a market order and was filled at what appears to be the high price of the day so within a few minutes already have a little loss. Sounds like that guy on the MT last night that said whatever he buys goes the other way.

TMX: Adios Amigo
X: Better be good or you're neXt.

Peter V

Stephen,
Did you get SCHN from the Shadow? That one's on my radar as well, although I'm looking for today's action to confirm yesterday’s move. I don't worry about the Big Charts for such short-term moves and this one looks like it could drop to about 44.75 before it finds decent support. From there, it could fill the gap from April 9th if it weakens even further. If you're into Moving Averages, it's below the 13, 20 and 50-day and the 200 is below that 44.75 support. Thoughts?

Dave

Hi Dave,

Yes, I saw SCHN on the email this morning as well. It looked good until I saw the Big Chart. Thanks for you input. I suppose you are right about the short term move. Ill probably miss a lot of moves if I'm trying to mix the fundamentals in with the technicals. Thanks man.

Stephen

Did you see FXI this morning? Wow!

liz

GOOG

I added to my position this morning..I see GOOG right at a support area..for me, a low risk entry here..with a tight mental stop...

Well, between Michelle shooting the bear in her dream and me selling off some of my bullish trades we are getting a bit more bullish action. Where is Brett with the WM and then we will be in good shape.

Keep an eye on LVS and WYNN. They were discussed yesterday.
WYNN I had breaking a Desc Tri from 5/2 with a 12 point target over 6 weeks. The issue is major support at 89-90 area. If it breaks this it could be a nice trade to the downside.

Jamie

anyone know what is up with pvtb,,,huge gap down,,not complaining,,giving me 80% profit,,wish i had bought more,,,just cant find any news.

sue

Some good long entries here:

DECK - perfect trendline bounce. last time it bounced $10.

BAM - i know Cramer touted it last night, but a great trendline bounce for a 10%+ bounce.

BYI - looking to break up from this flag with good news last night.

WTS - great retest of sym triangle breakout

BID - another great sym tri retest.

CMG - coiling up for another move higher.

ATW - nice retest of ascending triangle breakout. support holding.

ONT - for you stock speculators this is a great long-term and short term pattern. It's coiling up in a sym triangle and may spring up.

Bearish:

PAY looks like it might be turning down.

TMX is holding the breakdown from yesterday.

This can all change very quickly as the volatility is insane today.

SBUX is finally breaking down, might be a time to get in if not already, heavy volume.

Keep an eye on PLL (call), this can be considered along the lines of the Water plays that Eric Utley spoke of a couple of days ago. Great trend and they serve industries across the market. I expect a 9 - 10 point move in as many weeks.

Anybody want to look at RTI. Can you call that a H&S break with the left shoulder back in May ?. That could be 12 point move over the next 7 weeks.

Jamie

Jamie-

Looks like they both might do that today.

liz

PAY, uhh. That trade bit us in the butt. It was my husband's trade, so I didn't touch it, but it stopped out yesterday. If it turns down, well, won't that just be par. We get a 150 point down day and it's up. The Market is all over the board today and it decides to turn down. I am not touching that thing with a ten-foot pole. Sorry. Just needed to vent. I'm done. (Laughter.) Gonna go enjoy some time with my kids and let the market do what it will.

Michelle

GOOG and CME actually in green numbers today (not my account numbers.) Added to MLM today. That thing just won't quit. When everybody else is flat or in red numbers, it just keeps on going. Those are the kinds of stocks I like. AAPL looks like it is turning up for another push. I am watching AMZN too. It is at support. So is DE.


Randall and Michelle

GS reccomended buying calls on AAPL I heard this morning on bloomberg new..

Thanks Brett, been waiting for another bounce in DECK...I can't see cr*p at work on these IT charts as far as a trendline, that helps!

By the way, thanks to Chris (C&C) for SBUX last week.

VLO has been trying my patience, although today is doing fine!

JCOM has been down this AM and seems to be making a comeback...it seems to do that a lot and by the end of the day is typically up.

Bob R, heard the same. Don't you think that's already been figured in? I think they said to do so before the release of the iPhone, so very short term.

Anyone still in MRVL? Haven't heard much talk about it. I stuck with it even though that action two days ago was disappointing. Yesterday looked a little promising, but today might be the day I exit. My line was 17.50ish so I have already been pretty lenient with it. I'm in until the end of the day, then we'll see.

Bob, I have the article on AAPL in front of me. Goldman is recommending bull call spreads anticipating a modest move higher.
Good entry on GOOG.
Jamie

New post from Jeff... MT overview since it didn't record last night...

Actually Goldman recommended a call spread on AAPL.