Welcome Back

Chicago Midway Airport, Gate A13, Wednesday, August 22, 2007 5:43 p.m. Central

Here I sit in the stench of a crowded airport, hungry and tired, awaiting a 3 hour flight back to the good life.


Chicago has come and gone and I must admit, I had a great time. For all those who took the time to come up and introduce themselves, for those who took the time to meet with myself and the group (both on campus and off), for those who reluctantly decided to attend my presentations, I want to say… "thanks." There was quite a group of addicts that showed up to meet with the group after the opening reception on Sunday night, but only a few addicts showed up at the piano bar on Monday night (what’s up with that?).

Regardless of attendance we had a great time. Here are a few photos…

The Addict Family

Angela, Tonya, and Papa Addict

In Action...

The Marketcast Live!

Howling at the Moon

Having a blast

First, a few items of business…

I finally got to try the Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). The illustrious "burrito" that had always been talked about in the comments is going to receive a new nickname. "The bullet." Don’t ask me to elaborate any further. Although the market did finish up well over a hundred points upon consumption, I couldn’t imagine adding that do my daily repertoire. Giordano’s however, was a different story. Whoever offered the reco, I owe you one.

Returning back to the market after a vacation is always a complicated task (read: pain in the ass). It’s nice when you have multiple trades already in play to help absorb new trades you are looking to get into. But establishing a new inventory is going to cause some serious sensitivity between my account and the market movement.

For the last several days the only contact I have had with the market is through word of mouth, a couple glances from CNBC, and Fidelity’s ticker tape across from my hotel. I haven’t bothered opening my accounts to check positions or tally up my triggered stops, because I am not in the mood. In fact, it’s likely when I check things out in the morning; I might be totally in cash. Wouldn’t that be fun?

I plan to spend the rest of the week establishing a decent watchlist and surfing the comments for reco’s. Speaking of comments, I haven’t had the time to read them all, but upon browsing through them quickly I see a few things going on that I plan on addressing soon. I know it’s been tough to trade in this market, but keep your heads up.

In the process of meeting all of you, I appreciate the nice words and encouragement that you all had to offer. The insight has helped me to realize how important this community really is. Thank you for the perspective.

Well, I am officially back to business. I’m going to sleep. See you all in the morning.

Okay, I should be sleeping. It's nice to have you back Jeff. Glad you had a good time in Chicago. Hopefully next time the OA meets more of us will be able to join you.


same here Jeff. I'm glad you had a great time!! And glad you're back!!

Hopefully, will be able to join the group in near future.

Thanks, Meena


glad you liked the pizza. I have it overnighted here once in awhile (in dry ice) for special occasions. A little taste of home.

Welcome back Jeff!!

WELCOME BACK!!! You were missed. Plus, it's about time we had clean cups around here! That other tea party was getting stale.

Add me to the list as a menber of the Cedar Rapids group.

Barbara & Dan 1 hr sw of Cedar Rapids, did you metion pheasant hunting, we need to talk.

Lori I used to live in the Okoboji/Spencer area for many years, we had a cabin on west Okoboji (WHY DID i SELL IT) we'll be in Okoboji 3rd week in Sept. for the pearch run, a yearly tradation for 30 years running now. I know right where Silver lake is located as I've fished it a time or two. Also been to Winna Vegas more than once.

Ladd I listed a property you might be interested in last night. I will be emailing pictures to you. Stocked pond with house and small cabin, deer, coyoties, ect. 23 minutes from Cedar Rapids.

What a great group of people here.

GNK......nuff said

Hi everyone. I'm back in the market again. Bought a put on IYR right at the exit. My exit is a close above 75.50.

Welcome home, Jeff. You were missed.


Jeff, welcome back. We're all tragically sorry that you had a good time without us. Piano bars are so cool. I always do the duelling pianos when I go to Vegas. There's nothing like a bunch of fingers wailing away on the ivories. Can't wait to see the snaps.

Raimo I hadn't noticed GNK. I've been watching DRYS for a while and didn't really like the way it was forming. GNK has a much better set-up. I guess I am truly an addict because I want to jump in on it. I probably shouldn't though. But I like it.

PCU has also bounced back nicely. As have most copper stocks. Like so many other things, though, it's just not a good entry right now.

I know you said you like to see a stock touch several times to call it support. I am studying the AAPL chart. Where do you see support? I see maybe 125 and 130 as support. I used candles, so it may not be what you see. I have got to get better at identifying my support and resistance. Your help would be appreciated.


P.S. I am not in this stock, just studying it.

GNK - I have no idea what you see there. Could you elaborate please?

On my radar this morning for possible bullish entries (though I'm not really bullish but if you can't beat 'em...etc)I offer:

HMSY - Flag (or pennant) waiting for breakout?

FTI - flirting with diag. support

Jeff, welcome back and thanks for the clean cups!

As I am mostly in cash here this next week I will probably be looking for new trades myself so will be on the same path. My one put is moving up a bit the past couple of days as all homebuilders are doing (LEN) but still looks ok to me.

I have to run so will catch up a bit later in the day. Chris that horse rescue sounds like a great idea and something my daughter would love. Land around here is just too expensive.

DG- Okay, I'm not Raimo but... I'll give GNK a shot.

It's near REE. It would be a bit of dip today but back up to previous high at least.



Bounced off a diag trendline, formed a flagpole from $40 to $60, now getting ready to continue its trend and break out of the flag...hopefully, and in a good strong group..


I have some level of support at about $128..

Thanks, Raimo.


Yeah. you're back missed you. I'm back home as well. as much fun as it is to go away,always better be back home.

BTW I played w/ an iPhone over the weekend and am ready to toss my treo in trash,besides the thinkanywhere pda software doesn't work very well. For me at least.

I like ATI so much, I took it down about a half hour ago. The relative strength is sloping downward, lower highs and lower lows, low volume on the latest leg up, stalling right at a resistance area for a low risk entry. What isn’t there to like about it?

Chicago, was fun, educational, got to meet a few addicts outside of the gatherings (I missed the organized ones), got to meet Mr. Tall, I think I learned something.

Life is good!

I like AHR for a put play. Bounced up recently and stalled at resistence ... in mortgage business ... any thoughts.

GNK, I see stitting at diagnal support. I also see a lot of reisistance at 57-57 1/4 area.


First post, but I've been lurking for the past few weeks. I've been long Garmin in paper for a few months (unfortunately/fortunately I put in a limit stop instead of a stop and shot muyself in the foot ... but better to learn in paper) and I've been watching it very closely after the correction.

I see very strong resistance at $102-$103. What do I need to see to know if this is going to break to the upside? Higher highs and higher lows right? The support I've identified is around $86.5 ... am I on the right track? If not could one of you kind souls point me in the right direction?



Dan and I are in Salt Lake thru Sat. for the 3 day course. We'd love to hook up if you have the chance. (In the clean sense, of course)


I like to share something on the Investools site. Go to the (trading tools) tab click on it. Then go to the (portfolio tab) click on that. On the left side bar you will see (MarketMatrix ) open that up. Place your symbol in the symbol box, it will show up below in the symbol column, to the left you will see a square that reads (TS) click on it. A Time & Sales window will drop down showing the time, price , volume & exchange. The red volume is Neg. the green vol. is Pos. and black is equal. If you are looking for entry points or day trading you may find this useful.


ATI looks very good.


Logan, Where in the hotel lobby were you waiting Sunday night? 'John from OC', my husband and I were standing in the lobby for probably and hour waiting for other Addicts and Jeff to show up. We finally went back up and found Jeff and Amber outside the dining room after the Addicts had already met. Sorry we missed the meeting.

Everyone, the conference was a impressive. IT knows how to provide a great experience. I learned alot from the instructors in the break out sessions that will really add to my trading skills.


John L.
I like ATI a lot. That's two trades that my fingers are just itching to take down today. One up, one down. That would be good, wouldn't it? Huh? Please oh puhleeeeaaazzzzeee??

Jay. I've like GRMN for a while now, too but I don't like what I'm seeing on it right now. It seems to be bumping it's head on $105 and I see either an ascending triangle forming (if it bounces off it's diagonal support around $90-92) or worse... the dreaded double top. Either way it looks like 105 could be substantial resistance and I wouldn't play this until I see it break above 105 on volume.

VA Girl. Man I've been trying to figure out if I'm a swinger or not, but you and Dan are HOOKERS? I never would have guessed. You seem so articulate.


I still think CROX is a double top moving down and today is confirming. of course the initial target is 44.2

Lets see how it goes.

Hi everyone......chicago was great, it was really nice to put faces with names and everybody is so nice, it was well worth the trip, but i was glad to get home to my 2 favorite boys....

anyways, i am scanning my watchlist and don't see too many good entries, but i did notice that BW has rallied back up to a level of resistance.....looks like a good put play to me...

well i hope everyone has a good day.....it is good to be home (and warm)

Have I mentioned lately how useless I feel the hotline is? After waiting on hold for 15 minutes I got someone who didn't know enough about spreads to even answer my question. Sheeesh!!

I didn't want to burden the group with this one but I need another set of eyes and opinion here...so thanks in advance...

MTL - about 3 weeks ago I bought slightly OTM (Sept 45) calls thinking the stock was at support and ready to rise. It did for about 3 days but then went sideways for nearly 2 weeks before plummeting with the market. Position size I was ok with losing the whole premium which is kinda where I'm at now with it. Here is my question: In re-evaluating the chart I now see lower lows and highs and that today it hit smack into the downward diag. So first I was thinking to roll the trade to October for .80 more giving me more time. But now I'm thinking maybe I should sell the 40 call for about $1.20 and get back my whole premium that I paid. This would turn this into a bear call spread. Does this make sense?

Anybody think this is a good idea?

X is looking good for a put play. it is bouncing from 200 MA. Any feedback?

CAT, re-testing the neckline of the H&S. Keep an eye on it for a put entry.


Disclaimer: If it fits your rules.

So close yet so far... My plane was delayed several hours on the tarmac in Dallas. Thankfully I used points to fly business class so they kept us liquored up while we waited. I made use of the time watching the Orlando conference DVDs on my laptop but by the time we finally made it to the conference reception I was at the tail end and didn't know where to go. Then I found my coffee cup was really a dribble cup and my new Option Addict white golf shirt was a mess. Had to change and attend the conference incognito, missing out on all the extra curricular fun. I did manage to make it on my own to Giordano's as well for some terrific deep dish pizza. I also introduced myself to Jeff and Eric before the market cast and they were both gracious to chat a bit to me and many others that wanted to meet them.

I tentatively entered one new trade during the trip, a bull put spread on GRMN. Still a little nervous after the hammering I've endured the last 3 weeks.

I highly recommend going to the next one for all that can plan ahead. According to Lee Barba, the CEO, the next will be in October of 2008, location to be announced. Maybe I'll show up on time and actually get to meet some of you.
Stan Lake

DG, I see what you are saying. There is resistance at 40 so you could enter a bear call spread. But is this what you are trading ? I use to do that a lot. I seem to re-call Jeff not liking repair strategies. I've kind of gone that direction myself.

If I held to long I broke a rule. Clean it out and start over. If not, then will this become a distraction on your trading between now and Sept Expiration. I mean, it goes against you and now your repairing the repair strategy ? For me I don't want to get distracted like that anymore.

I know you work and are out sometimes. So the question you have to ask yourself is : Will it be a distraction to the rest of my system ?(which I think is directional trading).


To Wahly: feel free to e-mail us at dhull@zumatel.net. We have a spam filter, but I will try to watch for it.

To OptionFanatic: Thanks for the tip on time & sales tab.

To all OA's regarding BW: It does look like a nice set up, I'm just really leary anymore about what side of the fence I'm on, bull or bear. Both my calls and puts are going against me! I think I need to go back to Basic Options 101. I canned 14 quart of tomato juice last night. Maybe that's why my brain feels like juice! LOL

Just keep our sense of humor, manage risk, and the market will show it's direction one of these days.

Thank you. I am mostly a directional trader but lately have done my fair share of spreads. I don't see having a spread even if it is a repaired trade as a distraction. I'm already watching the stock anyway. I see 40 as a double resistance now because I initially had 40 as a horiz. support when I entered the trade.

Am I correct in that if I do sell the Sep 40s for say $1.20 I am now risking $3.80 per contract? (I have 3 of them).


My thoughts. It does look bearish but is already only a $9 stock.


I'm such a newbie when it comes to spread trading so I can't help you there. I wish I could because then that would mean I understood more than I do now. But there's really good support at 40 both horizontally and its bumping trendline support right there as well.


PFCB-dropping back inside its channel and staying underneath that 35ish/36tish support/resistance line.


MTL - another choice is to roll it at a cost of .80 to October and then sell the Sept. against it for a calendar or diagonal.

Does this look like a Double Top to anyone?

I am by no means an expert on patterns, but I think it needs more time to form before you can call it anything.


I'm not sure if it's feet or miles but the Phoenix can't seem to fly higher then 14.
Maybe it's still learning to fly...



re: CROX-on a good double top the 2nd top will rise above the 1st double top. If you were going to say that this is a double top your confirmation (I believe) should be a lot lower. There's strong support around 49.50ish but the lowest candle with volume in this formation is around 47.50. I personally don't think this is a good double top because your volume on the 2nd top is slightly lacking and you need this to run down a lot more before you have confirmation.

Again, my opinion.


For those interested in a great looking double top... check out CME. There's support at around 539/540. The 2nd top is slightly higher than the first and where you would mark your confirmation point there's a volume spike. This one failed shortly after confirmation but it's a good example.


Today's WTF .

I am in some GS OCT 185 puts. Underlying down over a dollar. And the Put option has lost $0.50 too. Stupid Volitility


Sam and Mahmood,

Remember, nothing can be called a pattern until it confirms and both DE and CROX are still a long way from confirming. Copy and paste this link to your browser to get a good explanation of the pattern.


It is also fun to go on www.thepatternsite.com for pattern discussions.

Michelle & Sean:
Thanks. I guess I have a case of over zealous bearish sentiment. Everything is looking bearish today. Thank goodness for this blog.


I think that SNDK is a double top. Today, according to my fibs, would be the breakout to the down side looking to go to $50 first and then $47.75 roughly.

Somebody double check and correct me if I am wrong.


Its funny - this market is bouncing around like crazy and currently i find myself sitting in cash - Every time i find myself deciding a direction of a stock from my analysis, a day or two later it goes heavily the opposite direction (once because of the fed)

Vix is still very high, im currently just watching till a predictable trend appears.

just my 2c - volitility is fun to play in, when your winning...

DG, in such a situation considering trying to "repair" a trade, I always ask myself, would I enter that spread if I had no position on right now.

Because the truth is, when you sell that call, you are not repairing a trade, you are entering a new position with new probabilities and new risk/reward.

Most of the time, my answer to that is no because I don't sell spreads very often.

The only way to repair a bad trade is to put on another trade that is successful. You could do this by converting your trade into a spread and that might be successful. Or you could just as easily go out and find any other trade that might be successful as well.

I just try not to let the fact that I have this nearly worthless option out there influence me to take on new risk.

DG -- you are correct that your new risk is $3.80 per contract if you sell for $1.20.

A question to the group,

can you do calender spreads on the VIX?

Options xpress wont let me do the following:

BUY VIX NOV 2007 20 Call
SELL VIX OCT 2007 20 Call

i love volitility skews - im just unsure why options xpress wont let me do this - maybe margin requirements?

Those of you who ignored my ELON recommendation at $19 might want to rexamine the chart today. Wouldn't we all love a second chance at something?


Thanks for the input on the Market Matrix. That is a funtion I had not seen but think will be very useful. That's why I love this blog.


We're not just "hookers", we also work for Velvet Jones aka Eddie Murphy. We've been reading the book on how to be a "high dolla ho". HaHa!

Okay, back to class now....

Be careful with ELON. My husband used to work for them. They just got absorbed by another company.
May not affect the stock at all, but just be aware.


Thanks for your input. I'm going to wait til the end of today (MTL is typically a late day mover) and probably sell just 1 call into a spread. I would not be comfortable with 3 of them but one is okay and I'd like to see how it plays out.


I was sitting in one of the four chairs by the elevators from 8:55 ish until 9:20 ish when Joel and his girlfriend got back from dinner. Then the three of us were sitting at in the circular seating area across from the front desk until I went to the bar to watch a baseball game and talk to someone who tried to tell me I was lucky on my BSC trade (that more than paid for my trip) and I that should have done a spread to minimize my risk (which would have paid for the registration fee). I tried to explain to him that there were different ways to doing things. He basically told me I was crazy.

I don’t think that there were too many people waiting in the lobby at any one time because of the timing of Ditka’s talk. Joel was told to meet around 8:30. I can see where the confusion could have been. I sign would have worked well since none of us know what each other look like. In retrospect, we should have just gone to the Howl.

Are you from Oregon? I know Jon from OC is.

Sorry Patti. I explained Monday night.

Sunday, Joel and I sat in the chairs on the other side of the elevators form main lobby.


I love the chart on ELON, nice pick. on my list. thanks

Go figure, there is another company by a similar name. Ticker symbol ESCH Eschelon. Sorry.
The chart looks good. Sorry about the mix-up.


Hey Brett-

thanks for the ELON tip. It seems to have about a 3:1 reward/risk using a stop at 22 and conservative target of 32. I think I'll dip my toe in the water and take a stock position- been getting too hosed lately with options and decreasing volatility.

Peter V

Jamie, thanks for the tip on CAT. I was in and out of it a while back, but it's a classic re-test of the neckline of a 10 point H&S. $66 target. For the rest of August I'm paper trading these few trades that are RIGHT SMACK DAB on the REE (tm Redneck.) I will make a small paper fortune and return in September convinced that my 150' paper yacht is just around the paper river bend.

Brett, ELON looks like the perfect entry too. Thnx.

CVD has held well during the last few weeks. It is just following its trend line. Close to a good entry point.


GMCR, is that a flag?
Jeff had this on the watchlist a while back. I remember I traded it and it moved well. Just looking at watchlists and stocks for entries.

Yeah, I think ELON looks like a great entry point, with little risk to the downside.


Second thought, does the shooting star on ELON concern anybody?

Peter V

I saw that, too, Peter. My book says that although it is a bearish candle, it's not a stand alone signal. Clear as mud? :-)

Everything else looks good.

Hey you all look great in the pictures! Especially Angela & Tonya with Papa Addict. ;-)


Maybe ELON just likes to rev it's engine a bit before it dumps the clutch (see 7/30 and 8/1).

Peter V


Great entry on ELON.


ATW looks very pretty today (especially on a down day and a dropping oil price).

That is, if you're into that whole price pattern thing.

ATW looks awesome. Breaking through and bouncing off of a support line. I like when there are multiple signals.


GS and ICE could be getting ready to turn down IF, IF the market heads down. I am not recommending a trade here, just something to watch. Plus, we have the Fed to deal with. They could step in at anytime in this game and send us all the way back around the board.


ATW - Did a nice swing trade on that 2 weeks ago. Love the stock but I see it as too far from REE for an entry today.

JEFF - Great pictures! Makes me wish I was there to party with allayouze.

Well, that was a nice rally off the lows from last Thursday. Get ready to visit them again.

Am I detecting a bearish sentiment there?


Look at the Russell, do you see a support line around 800 that it failed to pull up above (5 year chart) or am I just seeing what I want to see here?


$800 is a clear area of resistance which it failed to break through again today.
The Dow H & S breakout on 8/14 is retesting as well, and resistance is holding nicely, some puts on the DIA perhaps

I've got IWM puts with 80.10 as my get-em-out (if the rut breaks 800). So far so good. I'm concerned that if it does break the resistance it will be a powerful explosion to the upside.

I looked at the market matrix (thanks OF!) and found something equally interesting. If you click on the CH (in the same area as the TS) it not only pops up a prophet chart but it is blazingly fast and you can have multiple profit charts at the same time. That is WAY cool.

A few bearish thoughts of mine...

Dave B

Some of those look real good if we hit resistance and head down tomorrow.



You were probably sitting right under our noses! The three of us were standing near the door to the parking garage elevators in the room between the front desk and main elevators. If I remember right, John and I were wearing red and my husband, David, had a beige jacket.


I also see the failed ascending triangle on FNM. Taking a longer term view FNM is also at the upper edge of a channel up.

Dave B

I just tried that TS and CH too and wow is right. That CH is so much faster, I wonder why?

Here I am sitting on my hands and not trading but boy am I wanting too.

Is that really a H&S on FAST? If so where do you see the support?With the gap up on 7/12 I'm confused.Of course it doesn't take much to confuse me.



I see the set up on FAST but the H&S has not confirmed as yet. It would have to break below about 45 with volume to confirm. Of course, that line is thick and not as finite as we all would wish.

I never thought of myself as a bear, but my bear watch list is almost longer than my bulls.


Hey! I tried the chart button on the matrix. That is going to be nice. Thanks.

All my put plays are doing just that, putting around. They don't make my target, but they don't meet my exit. Frustrating. Really frustrating if it pops to the upside with some force.


I just ran through my watchlist and one bull and five bears. Michelle I have never really understood being bull or bear as why be either just trade the market or the stock. I guess everyone has they bias but I think once I see a trend makes no difference to me which way it goes. Well, that is not true in my 401K as I can only play bull trades there right now. So I guess I am bull with most of my money but hoping to change that with more success and more education.

Bob (and Pam), I think I just used to feel more comfortable playing the bull side of things. It seems more natural to want a stock to go up instead of down. That's the best way I can explain it. It also seems easier for some reason.

But right now I actually hope the market turns down some so I can take advantage of the setups I'm watching. That was my meaning behind the comment.


Bob and Pam,
You can certainly short the market in your 401K. Look to QID, SDS, DXD, etc. Check with your financial planner, if that is not you, and verify this.

There is one bull play that me and my better two thirds Teresa made about 2 weeks ago. It is called Cash. Me moved truck loads of 401K into Money Markets, and Wheel Barrow loads into SHV. That may be a sensitive subject for some, but not us.

As for my Option accounts I am up on the Phoenix and BNVI (stocks) and trapped short on everything else (all winners today except KBH). I am not saying cash is the answer for you but we were able to move into it before our 401K's started free diving.


Hey OA's I watched the Videos and Pictures from the conference and I do not think I saw and Option Addict logo. What is up? Please correct me if I am wrong.


Thanks everyone! Sean, I tried that but the managed account I have means I have to select one of their options like aggressive, less aggressive, bonds... The self managed is not an option until I move it and that will cost me about $30,000 due to a signing bonus three years ago. Does just what they designed it to, makes you think twice about pulling it.

My options account is nearly all cash but a bit of SHV and one lot of LEN which for the first time lost me money today.

Arty and Friends,

I am like Bob. Stuck in a Fidelity run 401(k). I even have signed a bunch of junk to say that I am willing to take control of my investing. Even with all that I am stuck trading Mutual Funds in the account. I called them and no ETF's, No stock and certainly no playing the down side of the market.

Like Arty said, to me parking money in cash is better than losing it. I may miss the bounce from where we are today that is fine with me. If this is a correction than missing 5-8% is still better than watching as we possibly go into a bear market. I will start stepping back in possibly if we break higher.

Also they are so nice they sent me a special card letting me know that I went in and out of a fund in less than 90 days. If I do it again I won't be able to play in that fund for a year. If I do it twice I won't be able to add to ANY positions for a year.

Sorry I haven't been able to respond until now.
I agree, this group is amazing.

Hey - if you find yourself with a little free time in September in Okoboji, let us know. It would be fun to meet.
You can email me at lsutecht@yahoo.com

Okay, now that all the mid westerners are getting together I think it's time we got together. We'll have to make some plans.

liz ;-)

Flying P,
To give you an example of cash being bullish we were in DODGX and managed to get out around 160ish. The fund told us if we took more than 90% out we couldn't get back in, so 90% was it. Those mutual funds get so testy when you try to manage risk. I told Teresa, if it is a correction no big deal we get back in, if it is a bull market we pick a new fund when it is over.


For those of you paying attention please replace BULL with BEAR in my last post.

Does anybody see a weird shaped H&S in the $INDU with a retest at 13,235ish and headed down?


That was the bet I put on Thursday afternoon.


You're just noticing that? So the Dow is failing at resistance.

So is...

The S&P
The Nasdaq
The Small Caps
The Mid Caps
The Semis
The Transports
The Utilities
The Broker/Dealers
The Banks

You are too funny. The $SOX is on my watchlist, too. It could be interesting today or next week.


Arty and Brett:

I am not a Bull or a Bear, but if you take a look at $indu, $spx, $rut, you can argue that there is a reverse head and shoulder forming. Right now we are on the neck line and it has not bounced or failed. My personal opinion is that it will re test the lows, but honestly I am not sure. It has been hard to play this market for me and I have been in cash dabbling here and there.

A lot of stocks have bounced off the lows and are showing some bear flags, but a lot of them are at resistance as well. I guess we have to wait and see where we go from here.

Any opinions?

Basically the market it as resistence hence we are seeing reverse head and shoulder which is nothing but retest of resistence. Higher probabilty is for the market to go down but if it breaks resistance with volume then there should be a good move to the up side.

This is an amazing time for learning and each day that goes by makes me better.

I am finding that I need to keep reminding that I need to play what the chart says not what i think the chart says.

Just as part of my expereince, I am slow at reacting and hence seem to miss the down move because it normally fast and furious. To me taking a bearish position at reistance now (at first sign of weakness) means I can play the down side while risking little that is why I have take a bearish position on CROX (Please not Raimo)
I have a tight stop above resistance and hencing risking little to make a lot.

Sorry for being long winded, but I thought i should share my thought patterns

Off the subject of stocks, do you know when Lost starts back up?



I have no idea. Perhaps we should ask Desmond?

David, those patterns you're seeing are only on the short-term minute charts. I think the bigger picture looks far more ominous.

Thanks for the laugh.


I was wondering if anybody has any experience with constructing positions based on vega. If so, what are your thoughts on it?

Look at it, low volume, "It is just hanging around, hanging around. That kid (13,250) has alligator blood. I can't get rid of him"

They all look ready to go. One way or the other.

Teddy KGB

This one is probably way out there but how bout SNA as a intermediate to long term play?

Is that a Cup and Handle forming on the Phoenix? If so I see 19 soon!



You can't lose what you don't put in the middle...

But you can't win much either.


I like that. I think I will post that on my mirror when I feel like giving up. Still playing very small positions, but still playing.

Thanks for the ideas and input.


P.S. What happened to Desmond?
Maybe he found Penny and they are living happily ever after.

Boy the $SOX looks good to me, but I will wait and see if the market heads down. Waiting, a big part of this game.


Yo Brett-

I'm feeling rather ELONgated this morning.


Peter V

Looks like XOM and VLO are breaking out of their down channel.

BIIB is breaking out today. Looks like volume is coming as well.

AIV & IYR - going down
down !

Price pattern stuff....
TSO is going to confirm a double bottom.


CTSH might be heading down again

Just a heads up everybody. If there is something bigger out there that could blow up I would advise taking a look at the money market fund you are using to park your cash.

Last week the 1 mo and 3 mo t-bills were trading at a 1.87 and 2.87 intra-day. That is major fear. The credit markets really weren't moving. The fear I think is in the Commercial Paper market. A LOT of money markets have exposure to commercial paper. Your money market may not be fail-safe. If your broker has a Treasury money market I would switch to that. Or a Muni Money market. Both will be lower yields. Treasury ETF's work also.

I had traded bonds for a long time I've seen a money market fund "break the buck". (NAV go under $1). It isn't pretty if your in it.

Disclaimer: I am not that bearish or saying this going to happen. But there seems to be some worry out there about something bigger going on. Hope this was useful.


Say goodnight to DECK. Those shoes are ugly, they smell, and my wife owns too many of them. Like I'm sure most people do. Which is why they aren't selling any more. Which is why this stock is breaking down, and when this one falls, it's going to fall HARD.

"here comes the fastball, Charlie. And when you speak of me, speak well."

My account is like watching paint dry today.


I put out a comic curve ball yesterday from Saturday Night Live and you didn't bite. What's up with that? Where are ya buddy?


P.S. Dan made me write it...I had no idea what it meant.

I hear you Flying-Pro - the underlying for five of my six option positions are +/- $0.08 from their open today. What are the odds of that?

"Okay, Nuke."

My husband knew it.


Yep, Flying Pro.

The paint is dried here.

Like my five-year-old says, "Maybe tomorrow." Or Monday, in our case.



You know where I am. This will more than likely be my only post till sunday or monday as internet access for me is limited.

Brett you are hereby deemed my spokesperson and have power of attorny. Keep GOOG, AAPL and CME running higher. Tell Mahmood that if my bullish play on CROX fails, I will hold him responsible and hunt him down.

GS back to 230ish too.

Enough of these stinking bears..i am in the mountains bear hunitng as i type....


Mr. Davis,
"I shall speak of you well!"



I always wanted to do that.

I had BIIB in at $2.00 for Sept 60 calls on the open and didn't get a fill. Just would something good happen to me here. Yes it looks good


POT is breaking out from its down trend line


So from what I reading, the market fundamentals are bad but when those fundamental hit the market is any body's guess. But in the mean time the Technical chart is pointing upward for now. off course this all can change come Monday based on news etc.

Each trade also needs to be looked at its own merit and based on its own technicals. Most broad based indices were at resistance and hence it is higher probability form them to come down but if they break out we need to be ready for that. But the main question for me is that this movement has no volumen behind it. so could this be a fakeout and not a breakout?

Wow ... I see why Brett gets all the props. Long ELON in paper :)


C2 or anyone else. How should one read Garmin now. Still the hard resistance at 105 but a nice steady climb today. MACD and STO both positive today too but volume was below average (just like the last 2 days).

Another one I'm paper trading is CMI. I show resistance at 105. Volume has been below average the past 4 days, and there looks to be some new support at 111. Resistance is around 125.7 and MACD is green with a phantom on STO.

Appreciate the insights.


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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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