What Rally?

The emergency discount rate cut has played out beautifully. As I said yesterday, the Fed's hand was forced to do this. What is hilarious is that the Dow panics higher by about 300 points, remembers that this rate cut solves nothing, and in all likelihood the market heads back lower sooner than later.

Last time the Fed stepped in to service the market with an emergency rate cut, the Dow responded a lot better (temporarily) but the end result was a continued trend lower. I can't imagine we see anything but the same scenario. Remember, downtrends will have rallies too. Sharp ones!

If you dare step into a bullish stance here, reevaluate your stance at the end of each trading day. Keep your time frames short term, be quick to take profits, and trade small. Yes, I know this is the same regurgitated BS I say every single day. Listen, because I still mean it.

CONFERENCE UPDATE: Since the recent poll reflected more individuals wanting to meet at the Conference Center instead of a Piano Bar, I am making a change. After the welcome reception, I say we meet in the "lobby." I haven't been to this establishment yet, and I imagine that the "lobby" will be a good place to meet until we get a better feel for the conference center. Once everyone has at least gotten together, they can plan future rendezvous accordingly. Afterwards, I am still going to check out the Piano Bar, and those interested are welcome to attend. For all those that won't be making the trip, I hope we will cross paths at some point.

It's been a long week, and early next week will be some light blogging. I'll do my best to get a new thread opened each day, but I won't have time to deliver much content. Wednesday I should be back on track.

I'll see you on the other side....

Recommendation: Have a great weekend.

Long: Chicago

Short: Packing

AFTERNOON UPDATE:

Karen (aka. Doji Girl) typed up this piece about trading parallels that she wanted to share with the group. Karen, thank you for your efforts, job well done.

Since becoming immersed in the world of trading I am constantly finding parallels between other aspects of my life to the trading world. I have often thought that dancing is a lot like trading. So is art. Real estate….the list goes on.

In the dojo where I learn and practice Taiko drumming, hang four framed Japanese characters with a sentence in English below each one. Although I look at these every week, I never related it to trading but for some reason last week something clicked in my mind. I realized that the way the dojo is run reminds me a lot of this wonderful blog community that many of us have come to call Home.

Here is what the four plaques say:

Manners, Harmony, Commitment,
Language and Unity of Spirit

How we conduct ourselves in the dojo and online on our blog is basically the same. We are all here for the same reason. We are all committed to becoming the best traders (drummers) we can be. Respect for the dojo (blog); respect for each other.

Discipline of Body Strength,
Power & Stamina

If we do not take care of ourselves physically we will not have the mental energy and psychological fortitude necessary to be successful. Drumming is hard work. So is trading.

Musical skills, Artistic Expression & Rhythm

You’ve heard it said many times that technical analysis is an art. Creating the perfect trade is an expression of that art. Being in tune with the rhythm of the markets will allow that art to flourish and become the masterpiece you envision.

Discipline of Mind, Self Control and Spirit

This last one is for me the most important. Without the discipline and self control to plan your trades and trade your plan, you will not be successful. The spirit of the Taiko drummer is a warrior’s spirit. The spirit of a trader is much the same. Attitude is everything.

Jeff,
Have a great trip! I SO wish I was going even if it was just to party with the OAs.

Brett,
I'm in HNT and have been for a week. It is sitting almost exactly where I bought it and I think that it lacks the strength to get through resistance, hence a good candidate to fall.

ITW - nice retest but I see a lot of support at around 51 so I'm wondering what is your target on this?

COF looks good to me right now..haven't check the prices yet though.

DNA looks really good.

Stay homer unite!

Who is going to be around to to keep the torch burning bright while the rest of the group is out in Chi Town blasting Kid Rock and guzzling beer funnels of Yuengling?

I for one can not go two trading days without you all.

We shall blog on in your absence.

Cheers,
ARTY

I hate missing a great party, we'll hold up the fort while you're away. Break a leg.

Sarah

P.S. I got my answer on GMCR

For those of you going to Chicago... I hope you have a wonderful time. Wish I was going. Orlando was fun but tiring so don't be surprised if your brain starts to melt half way through day two. And take lots of pictures.

I think the next OA get together should be at Raimo's (didn't you invite everybody at one time?) or when Chris gets that 50 acres, we'll have plenty of space up there.

liz

BLUD seems to be breaking out of a bull flag (?) that could take it to $37.50, but it would have to pass through 2 prior highs from Jan. & April.

Cool! Thanks Jeff! I wanted to hit the piano bar myself and wasn’t sure anyone would want to go after a get together at the conference center.

Who out there will be arriving in Chicago on Saturday night? I will probably be in the hotel bar by nine if anyone would like to talk shop over a few (maybe more) brews.

I have tried to buy protective calls this week only to have them bite me hard much like a stretch back in April and May when I was buying protective puts. I know, the insurance is necessary. I am not talking a lot of money here, I am only about 30% invested. A large amount of cash is King until some trend is confirmed. Let’s hope it is soon.

JEFF,
EMAIL SENT.

Brett,
Found 2 other bearish contenders:
DDR
TCO

Both seem to be at REE.

Everything is quiet. The market is just kind of holding where it is. Not moving up or down. FXY is down a little, but it is mid-day.

Sometimes it's better when it's moving. It is kind of like the quiet before the storm.

Michelle

DG - DDR looks like a double-bottom candidate.

TCO? I'm eating a burrito!

just kidding.

I agree Michelle, given this
past week, this quiet feels eerie.

BIIB - relative strength personified!

Beth Ann

Logan and other attendees,

I'll be arriving in Chicago this evening. If anyone wants to get together e-mail me joel at dbconcepts.net. Hopping on a plane in Long Beach CA. I love my IPhone.

Joel R.

CPLA - also could care less
about market direction.

Beth Ann

Biib Just came out of my morning searches a one of by best bullish picks.

Very weird.

Brett what would be the antithesis of a burrito? Maybe you could eat an egg roll today?

I don't know.

Arty

Brett,
DDR - I saw double bottom but then I decided it could be a desc. tri. in the making. In any case, a downtrending stock with poor fundamentals in a really crappy industry sitting at resistance.

Beth Ann-

BIIB looks great.

CPLA looks pretty decent too. I like the set up on BIIB better.

AMLN is doing okay despite the market craziness. That was one on the watchlist.

liz

I don't think this is a quiet day at all. There is a lot going on..

$SOX looks like H&S to me with 490 as entry/exit point. Didn't play it because the market was so wild this morning. Just one to watch.

NYX is at resistance. I got out yesterday at its lowest and am getting back in at the end of the day.

JP from OC

FXY is going up again.


M

I did'nt know my comment about NYX would be a blog stopper. I'll try not to let that happen again...LOL

JP from OC

JP,

You are not the blog stopper.

Arty,

Brett and I will man the fort and keep you entertained. Neither of us is going.

This morning Cramer jubilently predicted today would be the single highest point gain in the Dow ever.

Boo yah skee daddy.

Wow, what a rough week.

I have moved mostly to cash and my account is basically flat for the week. I guess I should consider myself lucky for that.

Dumb things I did this week:

Got long the Q's mid day on Wed (thought they would rally back at end of day, but didn't and closed further down, sold for loss).

Yesterday thought about going long but since it didn't on Wed, I didn't and missed what could have been a great trade.

I guess I will stick to swing and trend trading and leave the day trading to the professionals!

Currently (small positions):
Long - ROG, JEC, CAM
Short - C, GGP

Jeff, what happened to the addicts conference calls? Failed after a few or just too busy?

I'm off to golf for 5 solid days, so I will see you next Wed!

thanks
strat

Brett,

Thanks for that. I laughed out loud. I am afraid to go to the store before the market closes. I don't want to get stopped out and then the market move the other way.

Michelle

JP,

I still hold the official title of blog stopper.

Strat,

You are a hard one to please! I could never commit to a scheduled call, so I try to offer them on the fly. That's as good as it gets for now, but I'll keep you posted.

We'll try towards the end of next week. Sound good?

PS (Everyone that is still here)-

I updated todays post with some material that DG sent my way. Give her some feedback when you have a minute.

I thought it was great, well done!

Jeff,
I have to agree, it is definitely an art.
Nobody is a blog stopper. When the market is crazy like this, everybody freaks out trying to cover and buy and sell and wish and hope.

I actually think today was tougher to trade than yesterday. This morning was a fake-out that happened before the market opened, so the only people that really got the benefit of the Fed action was the big boys. By the time the rest of us got to trading, it was all done and we got into trades that were overdone that moved down.
Then puts are not moving much because the market is in a status quo mode right now. Who knows if it will hold, shoot up or shoot down.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents' worth.

Michelle

Doji Girl,

Your article was beautifully done. A keeper! Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts with us.

--Patti

Jeff - Yeah, I have heard that before (I'm hard to please). End of next week would be great! Love you, the blog, other addicts, watchlist, and the videos! No negativity here.

DG - Very deep. I will need to study it more to fully get the message. I know there are lessons in there that I can use!

thanks
strat

Jeff - Yeah, I have heard that before (I'm hard to please). End of next week would be great! Love you, the blog, other addicts, watchlist, and the videos! No negativity here.

DG - Very deep. I will need to study it more to fully get the message. I know there are lessons in there that I can use!

thanks
strat

DG-

That was really beautifully written. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and insight with us.

liz

Doji.

AWESOME! I totally get those and so glad you shared it (and for Jeff posting it) ... Excellent stuff! THANKS!

Michelle,

You should never freak out, wish or hope.

I've got two puts and two stock plays. I'm tired of watching the market. Calling it a day.
See you guys next week.


Michelle

Doji Gril...NICE!

Jeff...steering the ship as always

Michelle..speak for yourself. I don't freak out, wish or hope.

Brett,
That was a joke. I'm sure there are those out there doing that.
Not wanting to cut loose a loser and hoping and wishing. I've done that many times and regretted it.

Michelle

DG
I couldn't agree more!

Whoa,
Lighten up, guys.


Michelle

Thanks, guys! Glad you like it. I read those plaques at the end of a tough week a couple of weeks ago and it was like I was seeing them for the first time. It just reminded me of how I feel about this space here and trading.

Thank you, Jeff, for posting it.

If you're not watching, you might consider and research - PCP and RIMM ... they woke up today! PCP is at an old entry point....

*sigh* DJ, that was awesome.. Reminds me of the time I had 4 pictures on the walls above my Grande Lit (hehe which is bed in French)! Patience, hope, strength, and the rhythm method (which I am probably a product of- hell I know alcohol was involved!). Those were the days, you had to have patience waiting for the right girl, hope she walked past, strength to drag her back to my my place, and the rhythm method to demonstrate that timing is all you need for a contraceptive. Or apple seeds, I heard they were effective in the 18th century too!

Heheh only kidding, its funny how a lot of stuff can be related to trading – it seems that a majority of trading keys along to your personality!

P.S: I think next week is going to be more and more fun! Im not going long anything atm!

P.s.S this post was a joke! :P ... and so am i. :(

Benton,

Yeah, been watching them myself. Just can't get excited over them right now after there recen price actions and volume...


I am gonna wait them out, they just dont meet my criteria, but those are stocks I do like to trade.

Keeping them on my list though. Good luck if you trade them!

DG, I really liked it but keep in mind I am the guy that saw trading in building cabinets!

Today was weird as I am involved in the construction world went to an association meeting this morning and found out that a lender I have been working with went under today. Ok, now this is getting close to home. I had no time to trade anything today but was "fun" to watch LEN go up and down, postive and negative.

I see more puts in my future.

Raimo....

The truth is: I SCREWED UP ... they got away from me ... and plummeted ... I remained in them ... ABSOLUTELY STUPID .. So I needed this gift from the Trading Gods to redeem losses ... I may have just learned one of my most expensive and best lessons on paper and didn't have to take the several thousand in losses I would have taken had they not been historically successful plays ... I'm now back to my rules and stops on these two bad boys ...

I am an addict - confessing MAJOR MAJOR transgressions here! I jumped OFF of the wagon here folks but I am recovering ... :) SHEW! Confession is good for the soul!

Please folks - don't be stupid like me ... STOP at your STOPS ...

Thanks for your post Raimo ... appreciate all of you posts ...

Thanks DG very insightful.

Bob and Brett I am looking forward to some quality entertaining.

Talk about entertainment Chris should be opening his laptop any minute.

I don;t think he even knows about the Fed metaling in our business.

Michelle,
I have deleted hope and wish and have added Praying into my rules. HAAAAAAAAA Just kidding.

Thank goodness my MSTR august paper expired worthless today. My bad entry of the year!

Cheers,
ARTY

Thanks, Doji Girl!

That is just what we need to hear.
I really appreciate you taking the time to share it with all of us.

We'll miss you in Chicago - I wish you were going!

:-) Pat

Bob-
You comparing trading and building cabinets is not so different then what Doji Girl sees. I think that most of us find parallels in other passions that we may have. I think when we can correlate between those things we can become better at whatever those passions are. It makes it seem more solid. At least that's my $.02 for the day.

Well, I'm only in 1 position now as I got knocked out of the few I had left. The only reason I'm in that one is because it hasn't broken any of my rules yet but it is looking a little weak. I'll be getting ready for next week Sunday night.

liz

Thanks Pat,
I wish I was going too. I'm still hoping for an OA meeting in Florida this winter.

Anyway, I'm going to bang those drums tonight and figure out why I lost more money today when I had almost no positions going than when I was fully loaded last week.

******************WHOA!!!*************

So can someone tell me how, when I have $5,100 invested right now I can lose $6,600?!?!?!?!?! Excuse me Mister Cotter, I think I missed a math class. Honest... I opened my computer, turned it on, waited 1 minute, and opened my eyes. Imagine my horror when I saw red stuff everywhere (and believe me I checked... I wasn't leaking blood from anywhere I shouldn't be) and a big -6,600 in the P/L column. "Hmmm" says I. "Something's amiss here, methinks." Well it turned out to be some sort of glitch and it turns out that I was only down a "smidge." I'm suing for the loss of a year on my life though. That'll be $1.2 million, please.

DG that was awesome stuff that you posted up there. It actually brought a small tear to my eye (but don't tell Raimo) as it resonates perfectly with my flying mantra. Not quite so well with my drinking mantra, but that's not too surprising.

Logan, I looked at your house plans and am envious. It will look gorgeous on your lot. Please take photos and have Jeff post them as construction starts. I wish Catherine and I were going to be in ORD (Chicago) tonight, as we'd love to meet up with you.

Anyone interested in put plays that have re-traced and are in a market that I think still has a huge downside, MER, BXP and MAC are all at pretty good entry points to the next downward ride. I'm infinitely grateful that I wasn't around at the opening bell. I have MAC and it opened the day up $10 (13%) before settling down quickly to a small .93% gain.

It's taken quite a while to catch up, and I think I've missed making some comments on some brilliant stuff that's been said on the blog today. Have a great time in Chicago everyone. I'll be working right through until Monday night, so probably won't be around much. Next week should be fun.

Ladd,

Shot you an e-mail.....

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

C2,

I know what's amiss buddy......

LOL...

Raimo,
Checked my shorts, and you're right. I'm all squared away now. Thanks for the heads up.

Doji Girl, This saying reminds me of your efforts with the blog. This applies to you also Jeff.
"We make a living by what we get,but we make a life by what we give.


Winston Churchill

OF - great quote!

DG - I love that! I would love to know more about your drumming - that sounds sooooo right up my alley. I loved what you wrote.

Everyone else have a great time in Chicago - I can't believe your planning a party and I can't come - that sucks.... so have one for me!

Have a fabulous weekend all!

Jodi
Canuck

Then I, in effect, made a nice living yesterday, but I made a small life today.

Brett,
I am laffing so hard my face hurts (LSHMFH)!!

Thanks for the best laugh of the day. No, week. I needed that.

OF, nice quote!

Brett,
Don't sell yourself short, man. If we make a life by what we give, then you make quite a life every day. Your input here is invaluable, and we're all the richer for it.

Some richer than others.

Thank you Chris, sincerely. I appreciate that.

I was merely making a joke about my trading results.

Brett, I didn't mean to dis you. Your presence is invaluable to the blog and I appreciate your trading wisdom and helpfulness. Have a Great Weekend!

I somehow just deleted my post so here goes again.

While I am not a huge Churchill fan I love some of his quotes and speeches. We visited his boyhood home (http://www.blenheimpalace.com/)and a new war museum last year. The war rooms were just opened last year I believe and they recreated the war rooms as the were when Churchill took shelter there and used them as his offices. Many of the speeches he wrote and notes were on display. The history was very interesting. Here is a bit - the Queen gave the Churchill family Blenheim for success in the battle by the same name and Winston was born there. If you are interested click the link to see the kind of employment bonuses they gave back then. Bad side is if you fell out of favor it was off to the Tower of London! Blenheim to me is one of the best.

Brett,

I am dissing you.

As a matter of fact, I am pissed at you.

You got some set of large tightly wound gonads getting some better pricing than me on some recent trades. Next week I will kick your A$$ and beat you to the trade.


Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Liz,

Hope you're checking the blog this weekend. Dan and I are heading to Salt Lake on Tuesday. What hotel did you stay at? Did you like it? Do you recommend any restaurants/hangouts or places that you liked?

If anyone else has any suggestions I'm up for it. We're going a couple of days early to be tourists.

Thanks, Kim

Doji girl...nicely put (love it)

Tom....these computer repair guys just don't understand....

ps. if being without is really cramping your style, i found out that walmart has a 14 day return policy on laptops.......hint, hint

well jim and i leave for chicago tomorrow morning at 6:15 am....in the meantime, i've got stuff to do and a sweet baby to play with (i think i may go crazy without him).....for all of you staying home, hold down the fort...

Scoot....glad to hear your family is ok, when i got home from work today, the first thing i did was log on to see if you answered....mother nature can be a serious beeatch when she gets a bad case of PMS (and this is PMS season!!)

Tonya-
I've never heard it called PMS season before. That's great. LOL. It seems fitting.

liz

Scoot-
I read a little while ago that another one might be on the way. Hang in there.

liz

Tonya, Good Idea about Walmart. Best Buy didn'thave the DVD recorder player I wanted once. I bought one at Walmart and as luck would have it the one at Best Buy came in just about the time I decided I didn't like the one I got from Walmart. Didn't think about the laptop.....

Kim-
My kids are finishing up dinner and so I have a few more moments before chaos ensues. We just stayed at the Best Western Cottontree Inn. They have a decent continental breakfast in the morning and the shuttle picks you up around 6:30/6:40 every am to take you to the IT building. IT sent me a list of hotels to stay at. Did they not send one to you guys? Anyway, there's a mall across the street so there are some restaurants over there like a TGIF and a Texas Roadhouse style restaurant and over by the bank (can't remember the name) there's a sports bar called Iggy's. And that's about all I can tell you because we didn't really do very much except go to "school" all day and then eat and then it was bed... A lot of the hotels have an IT rate. Let me know if you need some more info. I know you guys will have a great time.

liz

Step_Investments (Stephen)-
I've been reading about all the stuff happening in Peru because of the quakes. Keep yourself safe until things calm down. We want you back on the blog.

liz

This comment has been removed by the author.

DG,

Your email was beautiful. You have caught the essence of trading spot on. Trading is truly about self mastery isn't it. And it is the expression of that self mastery in the trades we take and how we handle them. As I have gone deeper into this I realize that really the only person / thing any of us are trying to master is our self. The words on your DOJO wall like teh ones taught by the great masters guide us on this path.

What is so nice here is also to have a community where self growth is valued and not ridiculed. Your words and insight just reminded me about waht all this is really about.

Brett,

I am working on finding some bearish plays. I am sorry I did nto have the time today as I was a teh pediatricains with my children.
I will work hard on it this weekend.

Brett,

Bearish picks all over. The ones that are standing out to me this morning though are:

ACE - Really like to see this baby turn over again

ETN - Did the Fed give us a great bear entry here with Friday's action?

I should have more later in the day.

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

l

Brett

You give good advice many times but you really should temper your comments with a little humility and kindness because more often than not, you sound like a pompous jerk.

Good morning Vietnam.

Can you feel the love?

Anon, talk about tough love. Brett is the King of tough love which you may or may not have guessed are appreciated by most. I don’t always agree with his approach, but, then again, most people don’t agree with mine. Such is life. If you are insulted by something he said, maybe you should talk a long look in the mirror and see if it is true. If it is, let it go and learn. If it is not, I suggest emailing him with your reasoning rather than inciting a riot around here. I would much rather listen to Brett’s tough love and learn and disagree if I have to than listen to people covering his back all weekend. You may or may not have noticed that people stick up for people around here.

Good luck dude or dudette.

Anonymous,

Thank you for the advice. In the future, I will make sure to be cognizant of how my comments may be interpreted.

I apologize if this sentiment is shared by others.

The picture pans out, Arty once again standing on soap box, looking into the crowd for Raimo to ensure perimeter is secure, megaphone in hand..........

I think if a person is going to criticize anyone they should
identify themselves at the very least. That way retorts can be addressed to someone other than ANON.

Now on the subject of pompousness, arrogance, or for sakes of this discussion lets say......... "really confident and decisive". The worlds best traders consider this a must have in their personality traits. (See any or all of the Market Wizards books.) I consider it tantamount to being a trader as a matter of fact.

On the subject of humility I consider it to be one of my almost uncountable great qualities.

And if you don't think Brett is kind, just go back and read this blog and see how many more times Brett has taken time to help somebody (including me more than once), than he has to celebrate success with a little clever wit!

There will be time for even more kindness after the fortunes are secured. Read the chapter in the first Market Wizards on Ed Seykota. He comes off a little tough at first but as his story unfolds you can't help but love him. And that dude could trade! And so can Brett

So my take is.......

Brett - "Stay the same wonderful person you are today".

Cheers,
ARTY

Anon-Leave your name or get a thicker skin, chicken.

Brett-Blog on, buddy.

Liz- Thanks for the info. We did get a hotel list from IT but wanted advice because the known is always better than the unknown, if I can help it. I'm sure we'll be soaking our head in more than one glass of something alcoholic at those restaurants after these classes.

The doctor asked me how many drinks I have a week on my physical form. Is it bad if you get past counting on your fingers and your toes and you're still going? Just kidding, but boy does that make me evaluate how many glasses of wine I shove down my throat.

Kim

Kim,
What has worked for me on my recent trips to the doctor.

An abacus.

Cheers,
ARTY

Anony-mouse,

Brett is one of the original long time bloggers here. You may not like his approach or his demeanor, but that is what make us individuals.

Brett has:

1) demonstrated a willingness to help others
2)taken time to interact on this blog in addition to NUMEROUS private e-mails from bloggers here seeking to learn
3)given more on this blog then he receives.


Brett, Annony-mouse may call you a pompoues Jerk, I call you my friend. You owe no apologies. And if annony-mouse had even the slightest set of moth size little balls, he would e-mail you privately as opposed to showing his true arrogance lack of testosterone here publily.

I'll take pompous over coward any day of the week.

sorry for the bad spelling...on last post...jeeeesh!

sorry for the bad spelling...on last post...jeeeesh!

I hate getting pulled into this type of discussion so just this one commment.

I have had many people in my life that have been tough (some really tough) in their education to make me better as some task or even a better person. My thought has always been that I want the direct approach, the fastest approach and the best education. I have found many of the best have very limited time and therefore may come across impatient or worse to some. In my book anyone that is willing to consistently answer dumb newbie questions like the ones I have asked in the past has a heart of gold.

Brett, for my money please keep it up. As I told you before no sugar coating needed just the education.

Thanks

Brett,,,we love you man and all you do

Arty,,,you crack me up,,,email me and maybe we could meet live in utah,,,SPGRLG@yahoo.com


Sue

Tonya and Liz,
Thanks - All is well here as we start to dry out. Dean is forecast to possibly become a Cat5 hurricane by the time it hits land in the middle of the week. Right now, it looks like he will hit way down in Mexico so we will wait and see.

Arty,

My husband is cracking up behind me. That was very funny!

Kim

Thank you Dojiwankanobe. You wisdom and words were excellent.

My Option Addict shirt arrived in the mail Friday. Being black it should go with everything...so I'm all set for Chicago. Looking forward to meeting those attending.
Cheers,

Anything that makes me laugh before I write I always include. Glad you enjoyed the humor.

Sue I will e mail you later, trying to squeeze chores and recreation in at a clip that should be not humanly possible.

Raimo nice as always!

Cheers,
ARTY

It sure is going to be quiet around here with so many of us in Chicago. I can hear an echo in here...HELLO..hellohellohello..

I hope they get some good photos of the OA group in full dress mode.

OK,

So where exactly did Brett hurt someone's feelings? On the no place for hope or fear comment? Michelle was joking and Brett was expressing what we are all striving for. Planning how you will exit if things go bad, or if things go well.

If you jump into the ocean from a boat and don't have a plan on where you are swimming and are just hoping for rescue, People will find your body washed up on sure if you are lucky. Same in the markets. No plan and the market will kill you just like the ocean.

Boys and girls we have a heavy sea right now. If we are not strong swimmers, don't go above your knees in the water.

I am impressed that Anon can spell pompous. Must have listened to some teacher somewhere.


Tom D (flying_pro)


PS Setting up the Google account was painless this morning

Brett,
As I'm heading in to the dreaded two day simulator session, I've been busy but just read through the stuff that's been posted. I won't address Al Anon... but I will address you.

We are all who we are in this blog. Raimo is our pet Redneck without whom our days would not be complete. Brett is our bottomless well of advice and information, some of which is candy coated, some of which is not. Without him our day would not be complete. Jeff is our leader and the tallest person on the face of the earth. We do what he says because we fear him. Without him our day would not be complete. They are the three longest running, most helpful, most insightful people I have ever had the pleasure of not meeting. No one has a gun to my head forcing me to stay on this blog. I choose to stay because I love the people, the education the cameraderie, and most of all, the friendship that this community brings.

Some people will stick their heads in here and fire comments off and then head off to play in other sandboxes. They are not part of this great community (or should I say Village) because they have not spent the time to get to know us. If they did... they'd probably run for the hills. Or... they might find that they, like the rest of us, really enjoy the time they spend here.

I must now go and cram my head full of useless information that will allow me to survive 12 hours of torture.

To infinity... and behond!!!

er... that's "beyond!!!"

Guys,

Thank you VERY much for the kind words. I truly appreciate it. It means a lot that, though I've yet to meet any of you, I feel like you are all my friends. What a great and special community we have here.

I hope that we continue to learn from each other as we all mature into better and better traders. I promise to continue to try to be funny (I don't feel like a pompous jerk when I do, so hopefully I don't come off that way), continue to give tough love, and continue to challenge your ideas. I hope that you will continue to challenge mine too.

Thanks again. This is going to be a very tough week and we're going to have a lot to talk about. Hope you guys in Chicago can get on at some point too.

You guys rule.

I think we should change the subject. Yeesh. I got on the blog, and, well, I think we need one of Chris's stories or something.

Michelle

Is anybody going to be watching the oil-related plays with the storms coming through? I know oil has been down a bit as of lately. Just wanting to get others' take on it.

Scoot,
Are you on the coast? Just from the posts, it looks like you may be in that area.

Michelle

Michelle,

i was thinking the same thing about the storms,,if i haven't been so busy with work and my dad's illness i would have looked on thursday,,,but i am 99% cash lately since mentally i am not in a safe place to trade right now,,,i have heeded the advise on this blog to not trade unless you can be there 100% mentally

I think you have the right idea

sue

Sue,
I am sorry to hear that. I hope the situation gets better for you.

Michelle

With the Fed changing the rate on option experation Fiday, What are your guys thoughts? Did we get a bigger pop because people were forced to have securities Put to them??

Chris, Did you survive engines falling off, computers and hyd. failures and the like.....

Here is an interesting thought. Being that many of us are technical traders, how should we be using news to influence our decisions? With storms out there in the Gulf, or even with storms at the Fed

(Rabbit trail) - The rate decrease notwithstanding, it is my opinion that Mr. Poole has made some fairly irresponsible statements as of late.

(Back to the main path) or even with lawsuits by American Airlines against Google. etc

Do you use news to find good setups? Do you act on set ups based on news? Do you not pay attention to the news at all?

Just a discussion point.

ARTY

Arty,

You bring up a great point, and Jeff commented in response to a previous post of mine that sometimes technical analysis plays a back seat to the bigger picture. Sometimes news trumps all as in earnings releases or even the current economic conditions. I think that's excellent advice.

I have a somewhat limited knowledge of economic turmoil throughout the years and its effect on market conditions, so that is something i'm working on improving.

Because of that, I'm still (perhaps naively) trading with the trends but making sure i'm relatively balanced bearish and bullish. I have definitely pared back the number of my positions due to this uncertainty in the markets, but if something's working for you you have to keep doing it. If you are struggling in this market, it's probably wise to back off and take a break to preserve capital. In the past, I preferred to fight through it (again, perhaps naively) and gain a more firm grasp on how to trade different market conditions so that when they present themselves again, I may be better prepared to profit from them.

My successes recently when they've come have been in taking profits on sharp moves one way or the other and in cutting losses quickly as soon as a pattern has failed. I am taking a lot of small losses, which probably won't sit well with many people's strategies, but i'm okay with it.

Arty,
I don't have enough experience in a volatile market to say either.
But I do remember from the Investools training that news trumps all. So I am going to study oil-related plays and watch the next few days and see if the news affects them. As far as the Fed, who knows? Well, I'm sure somebody does (laughter.)

Brett,
Good advice. The only success I've had also is by taking Eric's advice and taking profits quickly and taking losses quickly. Sometimes waiting til the end of the day is too late. I only have a few positions open because I don't want to lose capital and the market is all over the board.

As far as GOOG, I have a put play on it, not because of news but because of how I see the chart. I played it down one day, took profits and got back in again when it didn't move above where I saw resistance. I don't know how the news or the Fed will affect that play, I am just going to watch and see.

Thanks for opening the discussion, Arty.

See you all tomorrow,
Michelle

I just got done reading all of the comments and I know that we are supposed to be changing the subject but I just want to say to Brett that you proved anonymous wrong with your gracious post to him/her with an apology that was not needed IMO. Good for you.

Arty,and all bloggers...

GOOG....

For discussion, here is my take on GOOG, different from Jeffs and/or others. This is to show how different people see things differently. I am going to show GOOG from the bullish point of view.

GOOG is sitting on its 200MA, a 1 year diag trendline, a horizontal support line. GOOG did not put in a 10 % retracment when the markets did (it put it in prior on earnings before the market tanked, then when the markets tanked, GOOG held). GOOG also has successfully re-tested it's 5/30 breakout of $490ish.

When GOOG breaks and closes on heavy volume below that support area, I'll go short. Till then, I favor being bullish, not bearish on GOOG.

This does not mean that I am right, wrong ot whatever. This is just what I see, and that may differ from others.

I know eveyone sees a H & S on GOOG...but patterns dont always work out, do they? Mine may not either.

As far as GOOG being sued, so what...no the first, not the last.

Okay, I'd be intersted to hear everyone elses take on GOOG, even if you are not in a trade on it.

This is how we learn.....

Raimo,
I see what you see on GOOG as it sits on top of a long term diagonal that I had drawn in ages ago. BUT,I see Thursday's action as a big red flag where the stock broke below all those trend lines and with big volume. I also see Friday's action as not quite getting back above that line though it ran right into it as resistance.

I am more bearish on the market in general and would not trade this from either side at this point. The fact that a case could be made for either side is enough to make me seek other opportunities.

Brett,

Please don't let teh sporadic rantings of the disgruntled esatblishment get to you. The uncensonered candor of your comments and the sincerity in which you take the time to answer our questions has been invaluable to those of us who want to learn and get better. Trading like living life fully is not for the faint of heart. But having guidance from people like you Jeff, and the others on this site have made the victories sweeter and truly helped turned loosses into a platform to learn. Please for all of our sakes don't change a thing. You are so wonderful and helpful becasue you are not afraid to say what you see and not afraid to give your honest assessment of a situation. I value thatmore than you know. Please know how much you have helped me. Thanks for just being you and being willing to put your self on the line to help others.

I am still working on the puts. Although my intital screen doesn't show alot in the way of classic price pattern or resistnace bouce plays that have not moved too far already.

Anu

Arty,
Back to how news can affect a stock:
I am looking at oil-related stocks and a lot of them are downtrending, overextended, not at support, blah, blah, blah. What is kind of funny is XOM, which I played to the downside Thursday, and am watching, could be at support if news moves it up. So that also goes to Bob's discussion on how a play could look bullish to some and bearish to others.

Michelle

Have you ever experienced a cell phone running out of power just at the critical time when you need it? Would you not love a cell phone that runs 6 months straight without needing recharge? Or a laptop computer that works a month at a time?

You will LOVE it! The technology is finally here! They spent billions of dollars on this thing for years and it's finally ready for mass marketing later this year. It's called DMFC, Direct Methane Fuel Cell.

Fuel cells, like DMFC, MUST utilize precious metals palladium and platinum. Supply of PGM is very limited. The whole world produces only 7 million ounces of palladium per year, and consumes more even without fuel cell. There will be a huge shortage, driving the price of PGM metals, especially palladium, to the stratosphere!!!!

That brings a huge opportunity buying the SWC stock, near 52 week low now. SWC is the one of the only few PGM metal producers in the world, the ONLY one in the USA. The stock is cheap because it has NOT been making money yet. But with huge demand of PGM kicking in as DMFC goes to mass market soon, you bet you can make money in SWC beyond your wildest dream!!!

SWC has a price/sales ratio as low as 1.2. What kind of P/E will it have if PGM metal price just increase 4 or 5 times? Click on my name to read more on my blog.

Doji Girl,


GOOG

I cannot disagree with you.

However, one thing to keep in mind regarding volume on Thursday. Just about EVERY stock on Thursday had above average volume because of the market turmoil (run youroguh your watchlists and look at Thursdays volume). So if just about every stock had above average volume due to a global selloff, then wasn't Thursdays stock volume average relative to the market?

Where is Jeff when you need him??

Raimo,

It wasn't a rattler but I have a snake story for you....

In a flower bed in my front yard was a medium sized black snake cornered by a squirrel. Yes, a SQUIRREL….. He was dancing around the snake giving it the tail. The snake would strike and the squirrel would jump. The squirrel would jump from tree truck to tree truck to get a better angle. It was amazing. I then thought to shot some video to share but as I walked out the squirrel let the snake slither away. Darn!! It would have been great on u Tube.

With a 4-1/2 year old and a 8 week old, I am re-thinking my dislike of so many squirrel around my house.

Calvin
Greenville, SC

I not sure it's quite time for a PTR entry... but look at the 2 year chart. We are nearing the bottom of a pretty long pattern. Does anyone else see this as a good pure stock trade with a $170-180 target price?

Calvin
Greenville, SC

JJ-

SWC looks fantastic!! In fact, the head and shoulders reversal only cut the stock in half! It's still $8.50! However, I think I'll wait until the stock loses another 25%, hits its target, and then decide if the company is going out of business or not. Sound good, JJ? JJ, are you there?

Hey, why aren't Bush's people behind THIS stock?
(that's an inside joke for those of you familiar with JJ's past work)

Hey JJ, where did you go? Are you preparing another spam blast on a stock you lost your a$$ on??? I hear that LEND is about to secure a deal to provide mortgages to third world countries at prime + 10%. That means no subprime worries!! Hurry, get in now!!

Brett,

Love it. Also I did have some LEND a couple of weeks ago. Played it like an option and took 23% in 2 days. Of course I could because I rode the basta@$ into the ground and made a ton of cash after Market Cast put it on our radar. Hopefully 6 months from now JJ will recommend PHM to us as the best housing stock under $2.00

Raimo,

Ok, another good snake story. I had 30+ people over, mostly neighbors and soccer parents, for my 50th birthday on Friday for a BBQ. I was cooking chicken souvlaiki kabobs (Greek) for everyone starting about 8 PM. About 15 minutes in, I hear this really loud hissing noise from under the barbeque. I asked some of the other male BBQ officionadoes what that sound was. They felt it was grease from the chicken hitting the cooking tiles. I let them know that I did not think that was the case and I was worried there was a gas leak under the built in BBQ. So I opened the doors under the BBQ and promptly saw a rather large rattlesnake, coiled and very pissed off. Mind you, I had already put my hand under there twice to get the BBQ brush out and put it back. I yelled, RATTLESNAKE, and quickly closed the door. At this point, it is dark and I needed a flashlight to see underneath. It looked to be about 3.5 feet long and crawled under the Kegerator (yes, I have one) and could no longer be seen. I tried to flush him out repeatedly but he just kept rattling and scaring the guests. So, being the man that I am, I continued to BBQ but I had to slam the lower door every time the snake stopped rattling so I knew where he was, otherwise he could be at my feet. He could have slithered out underneath the Kegerator or the refrigerator on the other side. I continued to cook for about 90 minutes and then I got serious. I had a neighbor flush the snake away for the Kegerator with a flexible stick and as he finally came out, I chopped at his head and killed him. I then picked him up and posed for pictures!! Steve Irwin has nothing on me!!

So, I used to say that "Real men cook with fire". NOW I say that "Real men cook with fire with a rattlesnake at their feet while wearing sandals".

I did not have a gun so was not able to get the "Raimo picture" with his prize with the jeep in the background.

Brett,

Loved your post on JJ the spammer!

PTR - I see a downtrending stock.

Michelle

JJ Spamer!

What a crock! If you have to at all, place your spam elsewhere - at least not here where we are too smart to even visit your junk!

Now on to more positive money-making items!

(Brett ... I agree with all of those above ... To do what you do, you have to HAVE that spunk and 'cut to chase dynamic' ... Grow it! Don't decrease it....)

WOW Sean. That was quite the story. No way I would have stuck around there.

Hi Michelle... I agree - PTR is downtrending stock in the short term. I just wanted to present it to the group to watch. Looking at the 5year chart, this has gone from $15 to $160. It seems to form these long cycles of which it is probably not at the bottom of the current one.
I played this one after last Feb's drop and had a nice gain. It may not be a normal play for the OA's...

Anyway... I am learning so much from you all. I hope to be a long time member of the community.

Calvin

Calvin,
On a five-year chart, I can see it as uptrending, also.


Michelle

Calvin,
How are you and your wife doing sleep-wise with the new baby?

Michelle

I will try to keep this short...

Brett, thank you for always taking the time to teach. You, along with many others, are real examples of what it takes to be a successful trader. Thank you.

Scoot and Stephen...take care of yourselves and be careful.

DG, well said and thank you for your thoughts.

All travelers going to the three day live or Chicago...have a great time, learn lots, and drink one for the blog.

I will be away from trading for the rest of the week. My husband's grandmother past away, so I will not be able to devote the proper amount of time for trading. She lived in Sharon Springs, KS, about 11 hours from where we live...ugh!!

I will try to keep up with the blog and the markets. Happy Trading everyone and have a great week!

Amy

Michelle,
I live about 40 or 50 miles from the coast as a bird flies. Generally when hurricanes come this way, they dump a ton of rain and sometimes cause wind damage. The biggest concern would be no electricity for several days in 100 degree heat but I have my parents and sister who live another 20 miles or so inland if a retreat is needed.

Amy - will do and you have a safe trip!

guy,
I have been reading much more activey this blog for last 2 weeks and I love the knowledge being shared here. You guy have all grown much stronger at your trading because of this medium of communication. I am working on getting a permenant login as well find a way to more actively participate in this with you guys.

but in the mean time I just love being able to read and learn from you guys.

brett we should do lunch again sometime (i will buy just so i can spend some time with the great one ;-) )

Mahmood

guys,

what is a good blog tool that I can use to read and post message quickly. Something that keep me updated as new comments are posted and then I can quickly post replys and updates.

This would be for Windows PC.

Thanks for you help

Mahmood

Brett,
Love your spam-the-man tirade! Thank you!

PTR - Calvin I agree with your assessment but I don't like this entry. Either we missed the opportunity on Thursday or, more likely, we will have another one when the market drops again.

Raimo - I see your point about volume in general on Thursday. I am too confused about direction now to think about trading GOOG. I see the indices on or near long term support yet I see no reason for them to bounce off it and every reason to crash through. If the market were to start off strong tomorrow (which so far the futures aren't showing that but it's only 10:30 PM) I would want to sell into it. Do I have the guts and the timing skills to do this? I don't know. We'll see.

Mahmood,

Anytime you want. I'm still right next door. Let me know what works for you.

Thanks again, addicts ;)

Hi Michelle,

That's so sweet of you to ask. I do look forward to knowing you all better.

I'm just getting back to the computer after having my 8 week old sleep on my chest for an hour before the last feeding. That is just a wonderful feeling. She is a wonderful child of God. She came to us knowing a Love and Security beyond this world. We actually had to wake her up the first few weeks to get the feedings in. Now, as long as the daytime schedule works out well… she will sleep from 10:00pm till 6:00am. With the family responsibilities, I don’t get enough computer time in during the day… so I cut sleep short. My wife sometimes feels like the computer is “the other woman”… but it’s all about finding balance. I am finding it difficult to participate in this market between working during the day and family responsibility at home.

My goal is to trade for a living… or is that live to trade… I don’t know. Just not sure how to get there what now in these conditions and I don’t what to force it.

Calvin in SC

Karen “Doji Girl” Rose! I think I remember that being your name…

You made the big screen at the opening reception. It must have been a testimonial you gave at the Orlando Conference.

I / we (Joel Richman and I) missed the addict get together. At least we think we did. We were on the hotel lobby not the conference hall lobby. Such is life. We had a good time!

If there was in an addict gathering, I’d like to hear about it.

How about an informal one tomorrow night after dinner in the bar?

Calvin,
Welcome to the blog community.


Scoot,
Good to know you have a safe haven you can go to if necessary.

Amy,
I am sorry to hear that. Don't know if you-all were close, but that is never a good situation. We look forward to seeing you back in a week or so.

Brett,
Okay. We are ready to start off the week. What do we need to beware of this week in the market? You usually have a pretty good handle on what's going on and help to lead us through these choppy waters. Aye-aye, Captain.
(Laughter.)

Michelle

Logan,
Happy to hear that even though I'm not in Chicago I at least made it to the reception in some form! Yes, that was a testimonial from the Orlando event in February.

clean cups, clean cups

Anybody out there keeping an eye on the VIX? I am noticing intraday that it is trending lower while the SPX is channeling sideways. I think this is unusual - any other opinions?

Scoot,
looking very interesting. It seems to indicate the we might have reached a stability point. VIX should be heading higher with market going down but the divergance indicates the fear is going down so the bottom is near. I am keeping a close eye on this.

Mahmood

Mahmood
That's the same way I am thinking. In any event, the market is telling us that something is different.

Agreed. this has been a very good learning experience so far. Every day is a new thing to learn from :-)

Now that is interesting - the SPX broke support even though the VIX has been downtrending. I wonder if this means that even with fear falling, the bulls can't push the market higher and is really an indicator of weakness overall?

Scoot,
this might indicate that we might go sideways for now. THe bulls do not have the power to go up but at the same time vix indicates that we are oversold.

Scoot,

I think there is a new post by jeff and we need to start posting comments in the new post. I am going to switch to that.

Post a Comment
...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT... ...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...

About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
My profile

Prescriptions Here!

Other stuff

Blogarama - 
The Blog Directory
Directory of 
Finance/Business Blogs Finance 
blogs Top Blogs Finance Blogs - BlogCatalog Blog Directory