The Goldman Trade

Disclaimer: Before reading this post, realize that I am not attacking anyone, discrediting opinions, or creating controversy. I am strictly providing my personal opinion based on a decade of experience. If you happen to disagree with this opinion, you are wrong.

I am intrigued by this debate. The Goldman Trade.

Let's scan a few charts. Starting long term, and zooming in.

GS 10 Year Log Scale
All price treated equal, a clear break of support. Broken in a vicious fashion compared to most retracements in this stock price. Nasty volume too.

GS 10 Year Chart Log Arithmetic Scale

Ahhh.... price has settled at support. It hasn't gone up a lot, but it has temporarily stopped going down. In a bullish environment, this is a low risk set up, meaning a break below should be treated as an exit.
GS 5 Year Chart Log Scale

Log scale shows a clear break below support, but also illustrates some clear lower highs and lower lows. That recent sell off is looking a bit worse!

GS 5 Year Chart Log Arithmetic Scale

Log Arithmetic shows another trade at a potential trendline. Which is great, but can you look past the last several months? If not, I am going to make you...

GS 1 Year Chart Log Scale

Both charts (Log & Log Arithmetic) show the same thing broken support after a vicious sell off.

BTW- on the topic of Log vs Log Arithmetic, my opinion is that all price action should be treated equal. For short term traders using a 1 year chart or less... you'll see the changes are less than insignificant. However, if you are a longer term trader or use charts beyond 1 year, this is a critical detail. Log it. Accept nothing less.

Back to the trade. Technicians always give more weight to recent price action and this sell off has me concerned for those looking to take significant positions here. I am not debating that the stock could rise or fall, but in terms of looking for the "cream of the crop" trades out there... this would be more of a gamble in my eyes. I don't discredit gambling. Plenty of trades I take are flat out gambles.
For those looking to build that consistent repeatable approach to trading, or even developing trading rules, this might appear confusing to take short term trades based on long term signals.

Bottom line, if you feel you know what you are doing, and you understand your risk and feel comfortable with the probabilities, fire away. There is a lot of bad news surrounding the group and market right now, and frankly, there are much better trades out there. Like Heelys. Down about 60% since the reco.

Recommendation: GS is trading higher this morning...better watch

Long: Log scale charts

Short: HLYS

Pulled forward from the last posting.....

I see your ALEX and raise you DRYS an extra $1.50 today.

I'd just like to take a moment (quiet please, everyone) to thank Brett, Jeff, and Rambo for their guidance these past few days (in particular.) I know there have been lots of other great idea givers, too, but these three are all at a level above us in that they're doing it for a living. They have all given a tremendous amount of time and guidance to us all over the bumpy past days, and I, for one, owe them a huge debt of gratitude. The only way I can pay them back is to follow their sterling examples when I'm trading full time.

If we ever get the "OA get together" under way, I want to buy them all dinner. Yes... I said dinner. Not just drinks. What the heck... burgers AND fries. OK... time to get off my pedistal.

Thank you for your attention

PS. Jeff this is HUGE!!! Thank you for doing this. I think this GS controversy has had us all digging in our books and trying to figure it out. Your opinion means a lot to us and this has allowed me to update my rules and form yet another opinion to create what will become the Perfect Trading Rules... which I will write a book about and become insanely rich!!

Jeff, thank you for your analysis. I appreciate it.

For those of you too scared to take the GS trade, there will be other opportunities to grab the best broker on the planet at a good level of support. It just may not be until 2008.

just kidding. This blog is so much fun sometimes.


I am with you 100%


Hit my diagonal support yesterday. I was down to 1 contract in it due to my confidence melt-down and doubled up, it was such a great entry point. The stock is up $5 today. If it pulls back a bit intra day, I'd say get in.

I better only have two portions of GS.

Thanks for taking time to give us your opinion we appreciate it. Oh and as usual it is going to be right.

Like HLYS this morning. Although I did not take the original entry I did walk with a blistering 715% today!


Short HLYS



Love you guys!!



Thank you for a STELLAR opinion on GS. It yet again opens the eyes of all traders.

This GS debate shows that we are individuals that see different things, have different rules and trading styles, in fact, different crystal balls.

Sometimes my balls are right, sometimes they are not, LOL.

(i fear that is ammo for the PP)

But what is important for all to learn from this is how to manage your trade, limit your risk, and think on your own...

THANKS!! JEFF, you are the MAN!! my OA gear today!!!

I am taking SLB as it sets up nicely for me (no log).


Great post Jeff!

Great debate yesterday sparking the post everyone.

Long: Debates

Short: Time



What do you think about 756 today? That ball came awfully close to my family members last night...

If I wanted to play the S&P the symbol is spy for the dow is DIA does anybody know the symbol for the russell 2000??

thank you for your help


It's IWM.

for Russell 2000 the symbol is IWM


Jeff - watchlist?

GS - hmm, what to decide. It maybe too much information now. On that options call Tom said something like "traders trade and do less analysis" or something like that. I just don't want to be kicking myself in a few weeks about GS like I am now about BSC and GRMN.

I have been swing trading the price action on AMG. It look like it will soon break the nice triangle it is building and my plan is to be in it when it does.


Michelle, I think you got a much better answer than I could have given you. Brett I think your advice is spot on and I am not confident enough nor experienced enough to be as nimble as you, Jeff and Ramio so I am mostly on the side watching. Based on my limited experience this rally looks like a jump in point but I am waiting to see what happens later in the day.

Wish I was skilled enough to play in this market but I am watching at this time.



Believe it or not I am in some heat over my "watchlists." A few people have had some trades turn bad and they've made some phone calls to complain about it/me.

I'll do watchlists again soon after I vent. Beware, I am going to have to change the format a little bit.



I changed my mind

Long: Watchlists
Short: Stupid People that complain


I can't believe someone would complain .... nobody put a gun to their head to take a trade. Iguess some people are just such losers that they have to blame someone.

I guess I had to vent because i love your work Jeff.


I wish AAPL would participate in this up day

Thats terrible that people call up and complain about trades they took that didn't work out. People have to own their own trades, and stop crying and blaming others for their losses.

love the watch lists, and the ideas you throw out there, it gets me thinking for my own trades. hopefully they don't have to change too much.

long island, NY

Someone tell me what to do with GMCR... should I sell?!?!??!?!?!??!

That has to drive you crazy--people that want everything (trades) handed to them, then have the nerve to call and complain when the trade doesn't work out because they can't acknowledge the fact that they need to accept responsibilty for their own trades. These are obviously the kind of people that shouldn't even be trading. Ridiculous. I give you credit for keeping your cool..

That sucks for you and us. You offer a tremendous amount of support and wisdom to us. Take it, leave it, trade your strategy!

Jodi, well said...

Long: Jeff Kohler
Short: Ignorance

Jeff, thanks for your answer. I think it's BS, but I understand the unfortunate position these "few people" have put you in. I don't know how many disclaimers you can put it...

Long: Jeff's watchlists

Short: "Few People"


Great post Jeff!!and to Brett and Raimo. Love the debate, keep it coming. Anyone long SLB and don't get me started on FSLR exiting Monday( atthe bottom) only to rally back 10 pts. Still learning to trust my technicals and only trade at the end of day!! Jeff how long does it take to brand this lesson in ...... Am I a case for turning off the computer until the last hour of the day? Hard to do since it's so much fun to watch!


Wanted to say thanks for your comments yesterday on using longer term charts to find support and resistance. I have a few trades working against me and after analyzing them last night, I see I made the same mistake as I did on LEN. I am so glad I can now see what is going wrong. Mistake made...mistake to not be repeated again.

People actually called and complained about YOU. What's their number I want to talk to them NOW!!! Just let us know what we can do to help. Your blog is gold. Please don't let some party poopers blow it for all us who have the sense to take responsibility for our own trades!!

P.S. did you notice I'm not as busy at work today:)

1st time poster. Just got out of a long call on GS this morning. I'm in a double calendar on it right now with a bearish bias. I entered the long call on the run up yesterday. (Horrible entry) I keep hearing all of the doomsday scenarios but when I look at the chart and what the underlying is doing, I see strength.

At any rate, I took profits on the long calls I bought yesterday. 25% gain. Not bad. Looking to get back into Sep calls if the SPX closes above 1491 today. Still in calendars.

95omega (Chuck)

Ohh nothing like a bit of debate... hehe.

I also wanted to ask the question -

How do you guys play a stock that has gapped - Do you see the gap up/down as an entry point (as the base of the gap starts a new support line) or do you not trade this as volitility will be too high, or fear of reversal is too great?

You should have sold two days ago, you idiot!!! Now you should hold it and hope that it recovers. I told you, and I told you... sell a winner AS SOON as you show a profit. If it starts to lose... just hold, and hold, and hold. It'll come back.

Man, I'm calling and complaining that you NEVER LISTEN TO ME!!!

Oh Jeff, don't be silly. Did you not read how you started today's thread?

" I am strictly providing my personal opinion based on a decade of experience. If you happen to disagree with this opinion, you are wrong."

We can't tell you what to do with GMCR. If we disagree with you - we would be wrong ;o)



It is a gift. Take down the profits, I did.

But please don't call me complaining, because unlike you, I would tell people to go f@#$ themselves.

Your advice, you demeanor, YOUR GENOROSITY, is unreal. I THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU OFFER HERE.

And I will be the first one here to tell anyone, if you take a trade based on anyones advice here, YOU ARE A MAKING A MISTAKE AND ARE DOING SO AT YOUR OWN RISK .

Advice is offered to help you learn to trade, not to help you trade.

Watchlists that Jeff psots, as we all know, are just that , WATCHLISTS.

You all just witnessed a big debate on GS...Jeff on one side, myself and Brett on another. That is PROOF that we all see things differently, and trade differently. Jeff offers ideas, watchlists, opinions to jhlep you LEARN, not as a wizard for you to place trades from.

Piss off to all of you here that lurk and complain and balme others for your own trading mistakes. If you take a trade based on someones advice, not your own analysis, I hope your account tanks into the pits of hell.

Trade at your own peril.



Raimo--that was awesome!! Nothing left to be said.

You know I was all over your pre-call on 756 like a hobo on a ham sandwich! I had the family all nestled around the TV looking for "You think you can Dance" baseball fans wearing OA gear in the outfield.

As a matter of fact we were sipping on some GMCR while clutching our HLYS August paper (knowing we would be selling both today!). It was glorious.

The family looked at me with awe as Bacsik served up that meat to Barry and he subsequently went yard in a big way. 3 nd 2 no less. The family was perplexed.

"Arty, how did you know tonight would be the night?" They inquired.

I exclaimed with confidence, "The Oracle atop the MarketCast told me it would be so!". "That Option Addict is always right!" (Except maybe in his choice of lifelong basketball teams to follow)

Next, I loaded up on $RUT puts this morning knowing they would be headed down to 756 today?????

Of course I didn' was your night last night all yours (and a little Barry too)at least in the halls of the Boise Chateau Relaxo.

Thanks for all you do!


I’m sick!

Why can’t people take responsibility for their own actions?!?!??!?! SICK!!!!

I’d take responsibility for putting HLYS on my watchlist, but, I didn’t find it. Thank you Jeff for putting it on my radar! How I made the trade my own… I bought two November 25’s on 7/13 right at resistance. I sold my ITM options yesterday before earnings at an 80% profit which could have been much higher if it didn’t go up $2 yesterday. At close yesterday, I bought two September 20’s to hold over earnings. This kept my risk in check, $290 instead of $1,000. Today I sold one contract at a 490% profit and have a real tight lease on the remaining contract.

Jeff, I can’t thank you enough! I will buy you beer in Chicago though!

I’d take your GMCR if I didn’t have some of my own. Thanks again!

Tell us how you really feel, Raimo. :-)

Unbelievable that someone would complain about your watchlists.

I'm going to call and complain that it is your fault I didn't take more of your watchlist trades and thus have missed out on great winners.

Keep up the great job.


*AHem!* heheh also all those using this to base you trades on without doing your own analysis and forming your own opinions...

Please read Item number 6!


Short: Being 1.45 in the morning and having to work tommorow

Long: Jeff's help! :) "thanks!"

"Like a Hobo on a ham sandwich?" I LOVE it!! Another favourite line from one of my favourite movies... to those who call and complain (muttering under your breath is allowed)... Your mother is a hampster and your fater smells of elderberry. I fart in your general direction!

Surely no one with IT training would complain about a trade going against them. We all know to place trades based on our own analysis.

Must be those who see the Watchlists on YouTube.


I cannot believe people complain about your watch list. Those watch list were money making machines for me when I incorporated my own trading rule with it.

Thanks for all your help.

Long : Upcoming football season
Short: time


Actually this is great. I broke every trading rule I own and bought a very few $1.95 OTMs on VRTX yesterday, based soley on Brett's insistance that it'll be bought out. Right now it's up about 15%. If it goes down I'll call 1-800-328-7448. First one to figure it out gets to help me buy the three wise men dinner and drinks.

For the record: I'm now on the short side of GS. Let's see how it plays out.

I can NOT believe you are all meeting in my city and I'm going to miss it! Have a great time...


And quite frankly the rest of you freaky lovable weirdos on this Blog, I could not do this without you.

I am probably one of the most unstable and likely to blindly take someone's advise......but I don't. I still do my own research before I enter anything.

This is a tremendous forum where people DISCUSS ideas, methodologies, rules, ups, down, happiness, sadness.

Anyway I would like a few moments alone on the ice, in the corner, where I could show a little hockey style Old Testament living to these misdirected dumbasses!

Someone needs to slap the piss of these fools - I volunteer!

(ARTY off soap box)

Raimo and Brett,
You guys already back into GOOG?
Looks good to me!



I, for one, think that's a very solid trading strategy.

For the record, I dialed the number.

You kill me. CLASSIC - Don't I have anything better to do?

And what movie was "like a hobo on hammy" from. I have been saying that for like 20 years.



Yes, I am googling....

gh from Long Island,

Don't make the mistake of comparing your stock to the market. The market is not your stock. Look at AAPL and see what has happened numerous times in the past. A run up, then consolidation, then a $40 runnup, then consolidation, then a $30 runnup, now consolidation. This is a good thing. Batten down the hatches and close up the shutters, it's going to be a wild ride in a short while. My target is $175 in a month (let's say Sept 15th.) I'll mark it on my calendar and write a post on the 15th declaring myself the undefeated champeen of the world, or another bozo who thinks he knows more than he really does. Normally I live by the credo "Close mouth. Engage brain. Open mouth." but not today.


I would have chimed in before Arty on the 800 number, but I wound up spending all my GS profits on the just getting back to you now...

Actually it was the whole "mother, father, and flatulance" thing that was from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. I hadn't heard the hobo one before. It is the best. or second best at least.


I too, find it hard to believe that people would call and complain about you and your watch lists. It just shows their ignorance and what your blog is about. Maybe in their ignorance they thought they were BUY lists (LOL) rather than watch lists. Maybe they should use a full service broker or follow Cramer. I appreciate the time you devote to this blog, along with your insight. Thanks for all your work.


Jeff, Brett, and Raimo, thanks for the debate on GS (and congrats on your GS profits). I join with everything said about the watch list.

OK .... had to step in and comment on this issue ......

First of all, Chris .. no wonder Catherine has hammers ... Her finding out about a call like that and you'll be sidelined for trading for days ... that is the long and short of it :)))

And my gosh, idiots that exist in this world. I won't trade one stock unless I run it through my rules and quality steps first ... What idiot would blindly trade any pick from anyone here just because he/she said so. They are smart to review them because there are a lot of winners around here. But probably the idiot didn't know when to enter and when to exit ... As we all know, it's a whole lot more than 'a stock pick' ....

Relax Jeff ... we've missed your lists but I consider them a gift .. not a necessity and I am surely not going to base my trading week on them but grateful for the 'gift' just the same.

OK ... I'm back on the sideline - continuing to read and input when I have something important to add to the great comments around here.

SLB, POT and CAM have been great the last couple of days.. and I am viewing entry into DECK and possible PUT with AZO in the next couple of days ... For what it's worth!

Thanks to all of you for walking with me through the trading days!

I know I don't have the high profile that the Three Amigos do, but did anyone pay attention to my call on PCP the other day? It's the only thing that I have more than just a minimum of right now and it's just doing what it does best. As the Volatility has gone up so has it's daily volatility. It used to be a slow steady climber. Now it's got a bit more of the "Wild Child" look to the chart but it's still a conservative entry on a stock that just keeps on going up.

Of course I just mention this in passing... under my breath, as it were. If you choose to take this trade I will deny I ever said anything.

Jeff, Catherine and I have talked about coming out to Chicago if the timing is right, just for the get together. We really want to meet everyone and have a chance to gab with you again. If we do and OA get together, Catherine's a really, really good organizer (maybe she and Amber could work on it together.) She was the VP of marketing for The Second Cup for five years and put on some unbelieveable productions for their annual meetings. Delorean cars, dry ice... you name it. Let us know when you decide on for Chicago... we'd really like to make it out for that.

And by the way, GOOG just hit the $520 mark we have been waiting on!

OMG!!! Don't tell me I have to put a disclaimer on the 800 number I posted. It's what the 328-7448 SPELLS that I was getting at. I have no idea what would happen if you actually phone the number.



I'd like to register my complaint as well. You're a moron, an idiot. You know nothing about the markets. You force people to take trades that they shouldn't take. They say, "Please Jeff, but I don't like the setup." And you say, "Tough loser. This is my site and you'll do as I say." You should be fired from INVESTools for not devoting enough time to those of us here who pay you nothing. I think your articles are lame. The bookstore particularly useless. And links to past articles? Do you really think we care? I think you should close this site right now you dork.

There, I've said my peace.

Arty, prepare for the flight of THE PHOENIX.


I called. I spent $$. I enjoyed.


Hey this is interesting. Have a look at PCP and DECK on the prophet charts. As the volatility index has risen these stocks have gone from trading in very small ranges every day, to pretty wild gyrations daily. I guess that's what defines volatility, but I find it fascinating. I feel like a have some kind of new power, but don't know how to use it.

I shall prepare at once!


Just out of curiosity, what are you expecting VRTX to do? This is new to me.

You all are too funny, well all but those of you that called to complain about Jeff's watchlist. How can IT have a problem with something that is not connected to them like this blog? In my corporate CEO days I got this BS all the time and it drove me nuts. My view is that around 10% of us blame the world for everything and just want to complain. If you handed them a gold brick they would complain that it was too heavy. My strong believe then and even stronger now is ignore them and if the IT leadership does not see that let me at them. I am not upset at the ones that called in as they will always be there it is what the IT leadership does in reply that is most telling. I know I have been there!

Jeff, who do I call?

Chris for he record I did notice PCP and had it on my watchlist to pull the trigger and just did not as this market confuses me right now. All the trades I exited (stopped out mostly) PCP, POT, GMCR, PCU, etc. are doing great as I sit here and watch you all make money with them. I am afraid I will not get an entry once I am confident to trade more...oh well.

Dear Mr. Kohler,

Given that you are heir to the great Kohler Plumbing fortune, it is clear that you have provided this blog out of the goodness of your heart. Those who refuse to learn to trade and only want a hand out should subscribe to pay sites that provide such service.

I have only one complaint:

As a member of the AHDL ( Anti Hobo Defamation League) I ask you to kindly refrain from allowing the portrayal of Hobo's as jumping onto anything with the exception of freight trains.


Dr Hugh Jass

My dear friend Brett and trader as well
Please express your opinion, please do tell

Your blast of the master, the man with the gun
Did I read that right, was that a shun?

Perhaps you have dug a very big hole
I took EQIX, pole after pole

But I suspect the master, the king of this blog
May take you out back, and beat you by flog

Fear not Mr Brett, your post was with humor
But close this blog, that is a rumor

Now back to your balls
I hear they are crystal
The profits on GS
are far from abysmall

Took some time to take care of the kids and do lunch and the post is up to 50. Debates on GS, complaints on Jeff. What is this world coming to?

If somebody is taking the time to complain, you must be doing something right. Most people get no attention (positive or negative.)

You are moving up in the world, my friend. Have no doubt, you have a large community of support here and probably even more from Market Cast that you don't hear from. Keep doing what you do. We appreciate you.


Long time listener, first time Googler.

I might have to have to become a Yuenglinger?



your talking dirty to me baby..

Yuengling...yeah baby..

And GOOG too!


I think prior highs of $45 are a reasonable target, if it's not bought out by then.

Did anyone else take KO the other day? I have an OTM call - so far, so good.

Jeff, I agree with the others about your watchlists. They have been so helpful. I hope that you will be able to continue with them. Thanks for all that you do to help us.

Dr. Huge... er Hugh,
I have to confess that hobo jokes are low, mean-spirited, and mindless. Your complaint has been duly noted. Phone 328-7448.

Besides, blame Arty. He used to be one.

I am well on my way to the best day I have had all time. Jeff did not tell me to buy one of my positions.

Should I complain?

Brett did, BPHX (only one green arrow can't jump in just yet, but I am ready).


Oh yeah I am Goongling over here!

Two days till the back country excursion too!

This is big country living here. Big options, big beers, big bulls, and big blinds! I am just hoping Ned Beatty doesn't jump out from behind a tree!



Can anyone tell me what's happening with BSC, KIM, and XFB. I am losing big time - I don't see how they can continue to go up but I'm getting nervous.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant what will happen if it gets bought out, that's what's new to me.

Sorry-I meant XHB.

Keep an eye on BIDU, creeping back up to resistance around $212. Nice little ascending triangle setting up over the last 6-8 weeks.

Joel R.

I will post this and hope it is taken in the spirit it is offered.

I started trading in Dec 2006. Things went well, then not so well, then well, then ARMAGEDON!!, then well, then a little bit not so well. What has changed over the course of those 8 months is that this blog has allowed me to create my rules, improve my entries and portfolio diversification to the point that I have had almost no losing trades lately. My problem has been (and continues to be) exiting at the right moment. The past two weeks I've lost about 20% of my portfolio value and it's almost all been not-realized gains. I'm still up very nearly 100% from 2/27. The last couple of days I pared my account down to 6 stocks of mostly 1 or 2 contracts. Even at that, the 6 that I own are up 20% today.

The entries are going great. Someone teach me how to get out!!! I can't thank Jeff enough for having created this forum. I will shout to the heavens if need be, that if it weren't for this group I'd probably be a quivering mass under some shoebox, in some gutter, in some desolate city. With a gun to my head. Shouting "Nobody move, or the old guy gets it!"

Jeff, if it would help for us to call someone, give us the name. We love you, man.

Someone hand me a tissue. I'm getting all weepy.

Hi All, long time no comment. Been on vacation and then been sitting mostly in cash as I haven't had the time to properly analyze the recent market craziness. I'm ready to get back into it and had a question for Jeff or any other addicts that may have some insight. My approach has always been to use the chart that corresponds to the time frame of my investment objectives. For example, on my 401k funds, I usually use a 5 year chart with weekly candles and review them weekly. If I was daytrading, I would be using 1-3 day charts with 5-15 minute candles. For my options trading, I start with a 1 year and usually zoom in to a 6 month or even a 3 month view to fine tune entries, exits and stops. Is that what most of you do or is it advisable to look at longer term charts even on a short term trade?

Thanks -

It's hard to say, but MER, BSC, GS are all bouncing this last few days. If you look at their patterns it was pretty much inevitable. They have a long way to go up before they hit any kind of resistance, I think. I got out of KIM on Friday because it looked like it was heading back up to resistance. Wish I'd been in BSC but in this market I'm tending to take profits once they're on the board and the stock starts to roll over. Just too much volatility for my liking. Mind you I did the same with GRMN and missed out on some gains. Right now I'm just looking at capital conservation (do I get extra marks for that, Jeff?)

I have a question. I am only playing small stock plays. Partly because I didn't know if the market was going to recover or not. I know on options, if you want to take some profits off the table, you sell half. I expect a bounce in the next day or so. What do I do with stocks like POT and PCP and GRMN that are making great gains? Just leave my stops in place and hold? I got in a little higher than support on some, too. Any suggestions?



If VRTX gets bought out, you take the money and run. In other words, you get to your computer that morning, you log on, you watch the bid ask, and you sell as soon as you can.


I suggest you develop a plan for your trades BEFORE you get into them, not after.

Also, remember, the market is made up of stocks, don't trade stocks (or options) based on the market.

Base it on the trade itself.

Consider this tough love advice, I want you to succeed

In the spirit of complaining about Jeff's watch list, I would like to complain that I closed my HLYS puts with a 985% profit early this morning and I could have booked a 1100% profit if i sold now. Thanks for nothing Jeff.


I usually only buy stocks for the long term (like in my RRSP) so I'm not so picky about support, and where they're going to bounce and all that stuff. I've owned for a few months now and it's up 36%. I'm just going to hang on to it until it proves to me that it's no longer worthy of me. I tend to be more concerned with the fundamentals of the stocks because I want a company that's sound. If the industry starts to drop dramatically I tighten my stops. Otherwise they're on a pretty long rope.

HLYS... yet another reason not to hold over earnings. The trailer for their conference call is "Heelys, Inc. (NASDAQ: HLYS) today reported the following record financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2007" So it's down 45% today. Jeff why didn't you phone me yesterday and MAKE me take this trade?



Your crystal balls are obviously bigger than mine.

Nice call on IWM...


Thank you so much for putting a gun to my head and forcing me to short HLYS.

What number do I call to complain to?

would somebody shoot BRY in the leg so it stops going up



Some call them brass balls. Either way, it worked out.

Some beautiful calls working yourself. I just want to point out something to everyone here:

You might remember I was down in the dumps at the end of July. I had just begun trading full-time, and made many people's annual salary in the first half of the month, only to give most of it back at the end and finish with a small profit for the month. That was demoralizing. But I stood firm, I examined what I did wrong and I focused on finding better trades. Raimo can attest to this.

As it stands now, that's a long, distant memory. I'm not going to talk numbers with you, but I want you all to remember this story when you're having a bad week. Regroup, cut the bad trades, and focus on the FUTURE. Forget what you lost and focus on what's ahead. If I can erase a bad month in ONE WEEK, so can you. Never give up, but never stop learnings from your mistakes. Set yourself up for the gifts this market can offer you, but protect against the storms.

Thanks for the words of encouragement Brett! I've been convinced that Mr Market knows exactly what position I take and He promptly goes opposite only to reverse once I get stopped out! I can't tell you how many times this has happened. So know I'm on the sidelines licking my wounds hoping to pick up some bits o' wisdom to help turn my string of bad trades around.

Jeff, keep it up. This blog has been a major eye-opener to me and I think has potential!......Duh! :)


The financials/brokers, CFC, BSC, FNM, etc. are rallying but on relatively low volume compared to the last few days.

Are they being set up for another fall?


Now that I am out of the trade with a HUGE gain the following is a story on why shorting HLYS was so natural for me.

The date: 1/14/07
The place: City Bistro, Hoboken, NJ
The event: Paul Carola’s 40th birthday (college friend)
The time: 8 PM about eight hours after the party started

A different college friend’s son had been rolling around on these shoes all day long. He is eleven years old and has the same size foot as I. I decided to give them a try. He walked me across the room for a few minutes in order for me to get a feel of the roller action. I ask “how long did it take you to figure these things out?” He answers “about a day”… I said “let go of my arm”… I took a step back and a few toes forward…. Hit the floor on my back in about a half a second. Then I started drinking more. It was obviously the shoes because I hadn’t had a problem walking until that point.

Today, I have redemption!

Thank you for forcing the trade Jeff!

RD, that would be my guess on CFC, BSC and FNM. After all, they did go down, off a cliff down, for almost two straight weeks.


I am responding from your post from earlier this morning about the Chicago Investor Conference. I am leaving Portland, OR on Saturday afternoon and coming back on Wednesday evening. Hope to see you and all the other OA there.

SPWR is breaking out today with good volume. Also, HNT turned down from resistance and is heading lower.

JP from OC

Does anyone see GOOG going to $550 ? - Looks like it is breaking the $525 Resistance - Anyone see the same ?

JP, I'm JP too! Not that you or anyone care...

I leave PDX at 1:20 on United and get into Chicago at 7 something. Are you staying at the McCormick Hyatt?

Can't add anything to the pile-on that hasn't already been said, except something that is not fit for a family-friendly space. Suffice it to say you are adored, admired and esteemed by all of us.

Searching for bearish plays I found FDS on my watchlist which is headed down nicely today. Also like HNT.

Brett - Thanks for the words of encouragement. I have only been trading full time for about three months and July was very good for me. Then, between this past Monday and Tuesday I lost about 75% of my profits from last month. 8 losing trades (calls and puts) in a row. Ouch. Profits and confidence went into the crapper. Your example of bouncing back is inspiring to me. Thank you.


Yes Brett, great post.

Doji Girl love HNT(bear) entered early this morning, got lucky on that.

enjoying the moves on RIMM, SLB.

the account is bouncing back!!

Hey if anyone likes AAPL now's the time to jump in the pool!! Surf's up.

The only thing I managed to jump on this morning was FCX which is doing great. Tried ATW when it opened down this morning but I stupidly tried to finesse a better price and it just went up and I lost it. It do feel like the best of this market is getting away from me and I am being overly cautious as I watch my faves run away...VIP, POT, etc... I guess I need to get over that.


I am leaving PDX on Frontier at 10:40 AM and have a three hour layover in Denver, and then arrive in Chicago at 9:00 PM. It is going to be a long day, guess that is what you get when trying to save a couple of bucks.

I am also staying at the Hyatt McCormick Place. The place looks first class. I am spending mucho dinero on accommodations and trying to save on air fair. Go figure. Anyway, it should be an exciting and educational esperience.

JP from OC

Doji Girl,

I'm with you my fav's running away. POT,PCP,NOV,FSLR,TSL on and on. but as much as I want to trade these, I'm buckling down and waiting for the lower risk entries, chasing always kicks me in the a$$.

Thanks Raimo and Chris. That was good advice from both of you. I am playing them long term, so I should probably give them some slack. I should determine my exit before I enter a play (even if it's a good one.)



Sorry about the BOZO's that made calls to complain about your watchlist activities.

I personally have taken you watchlists and thrown out the trades that didn't fit my rules and have taken the ones that have fit my rules. I could list all of the trades that I made money on, all of the trades that I have lost money on and don't forget the trades that din't fit my rules that would have made me gobs of money.

The bottom line is this: If BOZO's are calling to complain, Please e-mail me at and let me know who to talk to. I want someone to know that I bought the MASTER level and told my wife I wanted to see it work before investing any more money. Through MT, MarketCast and your blog I have made enough money to justify buying the live 3 day course and some other things from Investools. If it wasn't for your watchlists I would have made money, but I would not have been confident enough to spend another $7000- with investools.


Tom D (flying-pro)


No position in GS. Took my profits and ran.


Thought that was you running past me....


Yeah how about that reversal? Is that a hanging man, inverted hammer, hanging chad, or whatever candlestick that is a bearish indicator? That is a nice bounce off resistance regardless. May be a good entry again for the bears.

I was just coming in to say I hope you guys took your profits on GS. I see you did. Good job!! I still want to buy puts but they are so crazy expensive, even the OTMs.

So I abought IWM puts instead just now.

Check out SHOO, APOL, and TRID on 5 year charts.

Thanks DG!

Nice to see you checking on us. I also took my profits in the IWM. Maybe it was just a quick counter-trend trade. Whatever it was, this was a big selloff late today. Could continue.

Doji Girl,

Thanks, we did bank our profits on GS...

Now we wait,look for the right opportunity, either way it goes.

Hi Everyone

I just wanted to point out some things I think are setting up really nicely - all flags today - also, if anyone has any flags for me, please post 'em. I apologize if any of these have previously been mentioned. Enjoy....





Are you kidding me. I can't walk away from my moniter for half an hour without a bing swing occuring. What a day.

Joel R.

Is anyone listening to the Shadow right now? Great chatter on people wanting to know "why" the market / stocks are behaving the way they are.

Curiosity is hard to let go of, but he's dead on.


tx for the list, Step -

Wanna add BSC to the downside?

:-) Pat

GME - yeah baby! Thinking about taking profits and running.

Anybody else in this one?

Holy Smokes, 30 min ago I thought the $SPX was gonna finish well above 1490. This is insane. I'm going to cash on all but a few positions.

BSC, thats gorgeous Mend - thanks.

This is why you don't chase those trades. I bet you can get in on the ones you missed out on this morning... and probably at a better price!!

This market is schitzophrenic!! Take yesterday's graph on the DOW, S&P... you name it... flip it upside down, and you've got today's graph. What a wack job!!!

Welp, spoke too soon on GME. I guess I just jinxed myself here. Just gave back most of it and I don't like the looks of this candle though I still think this stock has legs.

Wowzers!!! I went out to a department lunch meeting thinking I was going to exit a bunch of profitable bearish trades and much to my surprise� The bottom falls out!

This really is a wonderful day. My apologies to all the people leaning to the bull side right now.


Trade of the week.

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride indeed! Don't know who said that in here but it sure fits. Please pass the Dramamine.

ROG on the short side Brett?

Bulls! No Bears!, Bulls! Bears! Bulls! Aaaaaaah! OMG my head's spinning!

I am GOOGling and CMEing and BOOMing and ALEXing and BlOGing and hope you all are too...

Any like Tootsie rolls? (TR)

ROG has officially broken its trend! I hope the shorts got out yesterday or before earnings.

I am GOOGling, BOOMing, GRMNing, SLMbergeing, and as you might imagine, heading to do a little Yuengling.

I do have to ask the market, "What are you doin some kind of stunt flyin' up there?"


Good for you Arty!

Have a yuengling for me !!

Brett, nice call on ROG, glad I got on board with you on that one..

Hey where is Chip, and the busted Phantom Poet...??

ROG...using a long term chart, I can the trade. Amazing!
Lots of learning today, thanks!


I hope you continue with your "Watchlists" as they have been very useful to me along with the Investools education I have purchased.

This blog provides a lot of information that is helpful. Take a look at the BOTTOM of the page.

Thank You Jeff and all who participate here.

clean cups!


What do you mean by clean cups?

Clean cups (for the newbies) means Jeff has started a new thread, everybody slide over to the next place setting and....clean cups!

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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