Over-Reaction?

I am curious on how many are interpreting today's market action. An excuse to take profits? A total change in market direction? Not sure, too early to tell! What is on your mind?

Personally, I am not totally sold on the fact that the market has up and changed direction. Yes, today's price has violated a trendline or two, but as I am trying to figure out what will happen tomorrow, I'm not entirely sure that this is going to continue. I figure if we are going to have some type of year-end rally, this had to occur before we can make an advance. Anyone agree? How about disagree?

Earlier today I let loose a few bearish trades to look at for short term moves. A few breakdowns versus breakouts. If the bears persist, then there are a few winners in there to make the most out of it.

I will try to get the remainder of my price patterns list out right after the open. This week might be the longest list yet. You can see a lot of hesitation in trends recently. Perhaps that served as a warning?

See you in the morning.

Yikes what a day! All of my last two weeks profits officially vanished today, and I've got to be on an airplane from 6:00 AM until two tomorrow. I'd sure love to be around for the opening bell! I'm not convinced that the market's turning at this time of year. As we all know corrections are a requirement in an uptrending market... and stocks like UPS and AAPL have broken well above their channels. Probably a good time to take those profits and if they head back up... get into some Jan calls instead of the Dec I'm in now. Jeff, if you read this... when's a good time to start getting out of a call? A week before it's date? two? I'm starting to wonder how much of my time's going to start to disappear on my Dec Calls.

Chris and Catherine.

Jeff,

This is how it all began in May. One huge red candle and that was that. If today really was just profit taking or a pullback, it shouldn't have knifed through those important trendlines. Also, this was a broad-based decline with breadth overwhelmingly negative.

Also, there seemed to be no explanation for the rally since July, so everyone kept saying, "trade what you see, not what you think." The market seemed to know something else from everyone else. Well, what is the market telling us now? I think we're going to try and retest those trendlines and then we'll know where we're going. The Nasdaq is also just above its trendline. Tomorrow should be very interesting.

This may not be the end of the rally, but I certainly got kicked out of a lot of trades today and my account got killed.

Thank goodness for Stops!!! I had tighened my stops up at the mornings opening on all my Calls as well as selling half of all my contracts on all trades in order to protect some profits as part of my risk management plan. The day's downward spiral took out all my stops. I am thankful for the half-plus profits and not losses. I will consider a re-enter on any of these trades once I see what the market is going to do and what the individual patterns look like.

Can not wait to hear your thoughts on this action today?

I agree with you Brett that the width and depth of today's move is certainly a reason to be cautious. I am going to sit out tomorrow until I see the direction we are heading.

Jeff, Great information of late!!! Always enjoy reading your posts!!!

Randy

I am in about 3 bear trades and about 15 bullish. Got stopped out on 2 bulls today. Looks like another 1 or 2 have gone past mental stops and will need to be closed tomorrow morning. LVS is still kicking *** and taking names. Without Jeff and Investools I would have closed out the bearish plays today and taken my little profits and hoped for the bull plays to come back.

Now I will close the 1 or two bulls that went past my mental stops, let the bears run if they are going to. Heck I am thinking of waiting until morning and adding to some Bull winners.

Just a guess, but my instincts say we will have a few down days before we bounce back. Enough that the big boys shake out the little guys and rebuy cheap. Short term the trend may be down, long term I am sticking with up. This is an emotional post, but Jeff asked for our predictions. I may sit out a few days and wait for the market to tell me which way it is going.

Stopped out of 1 today and still holding 2 winning bulls. Placed an insurnace policy hedge last week on the SPX that is just slightly up. I think we'll rebound although it may not come tomorrow.

Mark Fisk (Tplus1)

Wow...what a wild day. Dow broke through an important support level today of 12200 while the Nasdaq is close to its support level of 2400.
With weeks of an uptrending market, a pullback was expected on the first day of bad news...and we certainly had that today....the dollar dropped...problems in the middle east sent oil prices up again....
What will be interesting will be to see what happens tomorrow. I don't believe we have started a new trend, although Dow's break through support makes me very cautious. I think we are still in an uptrend but experiencing a much needed correction... although if we have poor economic news this week, that might be enough to unravel the nice uptrend we've been enjoying and turn the market south. This is definitely a wait and see week. In the meantime, stops are tightened....this should be really interesting tomorrow. Sure beats having a flat market.
Danuta

Jeff, I believe Monday was a profit taking day. I can't wait to see what tommorrow brings. I hope my gut is right.
Karen O

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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