Post feedPCAR Update
I thought this example on PCAR would be a good exercise. I think overall this trade would be determined by taste, style, and preference. PCAR is a channeling stock obviously and it didn't quite retrace all the way down to support before bouncing. So what! Does this change the trend or the fact that the price continues to rise? If you look at this as a support bounce and are tyring to determine how much it will move, notice how much it has moved on the last three bounces. Measuring from top to bottom each bounce was $8 in value. Pretty strong for a $60 stock. If it normally moves $8 points, wouldn't that put our target at $71? After all, as technicians we endorse the fact that trends tend to persist and history repeats itself.
Getting back to preference, some might not the look of this trade, or might see something the matter with it. For example I have received a ton of e-mails about CROX lately. Even though it looks very similar, I didn't like the "look" of the trade and didn't take it. This is our "preferential bias" I wrote about a month or two ago. We all see things differently based on our preferences. Nothing wrong with this, but my preference was to take this trade yesterday. Jan 60's. The last trade I took on this in early Nov left me warm and fuzzy and now I am grooming this horse for another race. Hopefully it works out well. If not, a close below about $63.5 will take me out. As soon as it breaks it's prior high around $67 I will tighten the stop.
Thoughts? Let your preferences shine! As for Jeff and his "Charitable Trust," it owns PCAR.
Ahhhh..
so you DO watch Mad Money!
Posted by
Brett |
11/30/2006 02:46:00 PM
That was pretty funny!!!!
Posted by
Anonymous |
11/30/2006 04:02:00 PM
Brett...
Occasionally I watch, but I never listen.
Posted by
Option Addict |
11/30/2006 04:20:00 PM
Booyah there Skeedaddy Jeff !!!!
Posted by
Anonymous |
11/30/2006 10:03:00 PM
glad you're not from Philadephia
Posted by
Anonymous |
12/01/2006 04:26:00 AM
Why?
What if I was from Philadelphia? Now I am curious.
Jeff
Posted by
Option Addict |
12/01/2006 08:19:00 AM
don't think you'd be the kind of fan they are, the worst in sports. you seem to care about leading us.
Posted by
Anonymous |
12/01/2006 08:41:00 AM
Jeff,
Is it fair to say we're on the verge of a major trend change on ALL indices? Markets all made lower highs and are on the cusp of making lower lows. Doesn't look pretty to me.
Posted by
Brett |
12/01/2006 09:12:00 AM