Counter Fed Day

One of the worst counter fed days in quite a long time! Ouch.

There have been some crushing retracements in a lot of my long positions, but thankfully offset by a couple strong shorts. What's important is to not get emotional at times like these, but to plan for them and react in an unemotional manner. Easier said than done, right?

Well, I wanted to organize the rest of the days comments here. I will be back later this afternoon with some things to talk about.

Catch me in a few...

Crushing is the word I would use. I have stops, position sizing and a few PUT plays to offset but seeing all profits that I finally built up from 2/27 gone and then some is really tough and even more so not to get emotional about it. So what do I find myself doing waiting...I trade end of day but what would I trade at this point as trend is still up but appears we have not hit bottom yet.
I also find it interesting that protective PUTS never offset the crushing loss of the CALLS on days like this and it takes months to recover (note the positive attitude as I have not done that yet from 2/27). Jeff, thanks for the calming comments.

You have to be able to trade any market at any time there are put plays and call plays at any daily fluctuation.
Those companies that are breaking support will stay down in a sideways and up market. So what do we say we start looking for bounces and breaks?

DE could be bouncing of the lows VIP
How about Tap? Anybody like to comment?
DNA is looking good although these companies come up with news and your trend is over.

Also do not forget that those virtual profits may come back unless, they broke support decisively then oh well that is the name of the game.

Lets get to work put up some suggestions

While all of my long positions (except for PENN today) are in the shitter, none have broken my support levels....they got close, and have even intra-day dipped below, but I will not exit on any of them unless I get a CLOSE below my line in the sand.

Because of the pullback, I have few stocks now setting at support again. They might make a good entry. BNI and TSO. Since I missed the DE move yesterday, today looks like a good time to buy. Thanks for TAP, David.

I bailed out of my AKAM puts with a small profit. On a day when the markets are down so much and this stock is up, that can't be good.

Still liking AVB & PSA puts.

But it hurt to give back all of profit in ATI. Will wait til the end of the day to decide if I'm closing that trade or not.

I'm thinking of changing my login name to Doji Girl. I can't seem to make up my mind...
Karen R
aka Good Witch
aka Doji Girl

I like that virtual profits, does that make my losses virtual too? Not based on that account balance that I am not supposed to be watching (sorry I could not help myself). I want to see what happens at the end of the day as the shadow trader calls 2pm the reversal hour which so far is spot on. My $0.02 is that we will find this to be a great entry to many strong stocks for the next leg up. Hey, I did learn something from Jeff and all of you as a result of 2/27 and that is I used the ATR and support for larger stop loss targets so am still in most of my trades even VIP as the ATR was so large. Many are close to support breaks but none broke so far. If I had done this with my trades back 2/27 I would have done fine with the bounce back assuming I had enough time left. Also this way I have better position sizing so some improvement is showing here thanks to all your help. I really want to get better at trading the market as I see it moving instead of waiting until the end of the day. Does that come with experience and confidence?

I have TAP right at diagonal support, with possibly horizontal support at about $92.00

GOOG

I see it at a good diagonal support level, and a re-test of the sym triangle breakout on 4/3. A good risk/reward here??

What say anyone??

It is not a profit until you cash in, it is a loss when you take the loss.

how about NGPS garmin dropped after earnings, could take a chance

Bob (and Pam),
Excellent comments on waiting for a break in support. Like you, my trades have taken a dip, but are still holding support. Normally, I would have taken the loss already. I am staying in until trend or support tell me to do otherwise. Wow! Today, I am disciplined.

KAREN,

NO NO NO!!

The stock is dropping and our target is $35! Never sell just because your stock isn't following the market. The stock is still following its PATTERN!

X has a nice pullback. is it a nice entry for today or tomorrow?

Bob and Pam,
Yep, I hate giving up the profits. And I know they all teach to not get out unless it breaks support. However, I have seen many profits eek away and the stock never recovers and I give back thousands of dollars. I (am not recommending this for everyone)
made the decision to take a lot of my profits on X, RIMM, RS and wait to re-enter if they recover when the market heads back up. Hey, it's $10 close-out fee. In one of the Market Wizard books, they say if you can't control your emotions, get out with your profit, pay the commission and get back in. My take is, better to walk away with a few thousand dollars gain and not be stressed out and then get back in if the play still looks good to me. Just a suggestion.

Michelle

Wow, CMG is sure showing life today. Flag break, up big with a volume spike. MikeH

Bob and Pam,
Also another thought. One of the market wizards also talked about Relative Strength stocks (stocks that hold up well in a pull-back and recover fast. I have been watching a lot of stocks today. TSO, BUCY, DE, and lots of others held up well today. VIP looks like a great place to get back in if the market heads up in the next few days. Hope some of these thoughts help. We all have to trade the way that works for us, and this is what I have found works for me. On days like this, I used to be upset and unhappy and down in my account. I decided to change my strategy and this works for me.

Happy Trading and let's see what tomorrow brings,

Randall and Michelle

Chris and Catherine,
Bonjour, I am the spawn of Canadians and grew up in the Pennsylvania countryside. I moved to Manhattan a few years ago to get my music on. Where are you from?
Long: the sweet apartment I just bought
Short: tomorrow's open

Michelle,

I totally agree with you. I did get out from X, RIMM, AAPL, SPY. Now I am hunting for bargains.

CMG looks like a great play. Flag and then up on volume on a down day. Makes me want some Mexican food. Thanks, Mike, for pointing that one out.

Randall and Michelle

A profit is only a profit if you take it. Be careful playing close to a potential market top.

Tony

Brett,

You might be right and perhaps I left a lot on the table. But I wasn't just going by the price action against market today. I was also looking at the 3 days of dojis. Also, my target wasn't 35 (isn't that rather optimistic?) but 40.

Anyway, it's done. On to the next...

K.
Doji Girl (I really like that name)

Tony,
I agree with ya that a profit is only a profit when you take it. But who are you responding to?
There are so many comments and topics, that I wasn't sure.

Michelle

I don't know why you guys are getting out of stocks like X, RIMM and AAPL. They aren't really showing weakness if you ask me, none of them are even at support yet. Maybe it's easier for me to say since I don't own calls on any of them, but I wouldn't be selling them if I did.

Geoff,
The reason is that I have watched my untaken profits slip from thousands to break-even on great stocks like these and sweating and worrying, when it's okay just to take some of the profits and get back in if it continues on. You may incur a few commissions fees, but it is better than kicking yourself and walking away with an account that is down. That is just one strategy that helps me to stay in the game and not let days like this get me down. Just a different trading perspective. Hey, nobody is right or wrong, we just all want to end up with some money in our pockets at the end of the day.

Michelle

Guys: Let me clear something. I did not say not to take profits, what I was trying to explain is that a virtual profit that smokes up in the air does not mean that it may not come back. It is all about psycology, people panic and sell, but the institutional buyers buy on dips and at resistance, if that does not break you have a chance that the virtual profit that you did not cash in on may come back.
That is why it is good to wait until de end of the day and see if these lines are broken, on the way up and down

Geoff,
We are on the overbought side of the market. Any time the market can come down. So it's a good strategy, just like what Michelle said, to get the profits out. If the market bounced off from a support level then this strategy would not be suitable. At that point we want to run our profit to the max. That is only my opinion and one of my trading strategies.

Geoff, I'm with you. I am in AAPL and X and both are still within their patterns. One of the hardest things for me to do was stay focused with the pattern and not watch my account. Talk about letting emotions make decisions for you! It never failed...I was watching my account slowing, sometimes quickly disappear. This is just one of the huge pieces of information we have learned from Jeff's blog. Not only Jeff, but everyone else who contributes. Thanks...Debbie

Man, I'm itching to pull the trigger on ESS. Beautiful setup. Thought there would have been a break by now but still waiting...

Rd

The White Mocha Trade of the Day:

Since I can't take credit for my favorite restaurant (that i've been blabbing about for weeks here), i'll offer another trade of the day. I'm sure many of you aren't having too much trouble finding bearish setups, but i doubt you've seen one so clean and pretty.

AIV.

Be gentle with it.

LFG. Has been very strong for past few months....looking for entry point
Ladd

Ladd,
Yeah, it looks good. Yesterday would have been a time, but who knew?? It may be one you just have to jump on and hope it doesn't go sideways on ya. Good up day today, too, with a down market!!

Michelle

AIV and ESS look remarkably similar, are in the same industry except that ESS hasn't broken down yet. My .02 says AIV has some serious support at the 52.50 level whereas ESS, once it clears 125, is good until 118 or so.

Just sayin'...

Doji Girl

Been watching MIR as well. Likes to go up.
Asc. triangle. Earnings today however. Watching for break.
Ladd

DavidS, I knew what you meant on that virtual profits was my feable attempt at humor. Well at the end of the day as I was off on other business VIP stopped out anyway for a loss. Not a big one but about half of what I was up yesterday. Will be very interesting to see what tomorrow brings with the market still moving down up to the bell. After market is moving up a bit though.

I hope everyone:

1) has some good bearish plays that kept their portfolios afloat today, and:

2) has some tight stops on their bullish ones.

Perhaps this is just a counter-fed rally, or maybe the start of just another correction within the context of the bull market. However, there's a long way to fall here and option traders can get hurt very badly merely trying to buy the dips.

The volume was huge today, the breadth was overwhelmingly negative (3 1/2 to 1 on both exchanges, and the volumes were over 6 to 1 negative on both). Plus, look at the charts:

Nasdaq broke its trend since the first time in early march. Be aware of the 2525 level. If that doesn't hold i'd be VERY nervous.

The Dow can fall over 300 points before it touches a trendline.

The S&P touched near its 2000 all-time high then today knifed through its trendline for the first time since early March. There's 31 pts of downside until it hits support.

The Russell is stalling at the 830 level yet again.

I could go on with charts, but here's my macro minute: The Fed is worried about inflation and the economy is slowing. Cutting rates speeds up the economy but raises inflation. Raising rates lowers inflation but slows down the economy. Not to mention we're entering the worst period of the year historically for stocks.

1 day does not make a trend, and tomorrow we could soar to new highs. However, every one of you needs to be aware that the rally could be over, or if not, it could be a long way down before climbing to new highs.

Be prepared for whatever comes next.

The term "Macro Minute" is copyrighted.

Brett - I had a scary thought...are you really Eric Utley??? LOL.

Well I guess I was a bit lucky today. My long positions in EEP and AVT were only down $10 total. (I'm still a one lot wonder) AAPL, which has been awesome, was actually up a bit. I'm also short in GM - so far so good. I was looking for more bear trades yesterday and today but didn't really have a chance to pull the trigger. I'm watching a few of the ones discussed here - AIV looks good.

A down market to intraday tommorow, then reload the Guns! Hopefully!
Long: Rimm, SLE, AV check out volatility & vol. on Jun 15 calls
Short: THQI

Check out CME guys. it was already in a down ward move now it has broken down a support level tody at 508. my traget is about 400 in 4 months.

Mahmood

Brett I can see what you outline. On TOS today they gave their $0.02 which I heard as - continue to fall until late in the day Friday and then the bulls re-enter. They also said DO NOT SHORT strong stocks like RIMM as this is just a re-entry point. I do not now but want to be ready for anything. Now I just need to work my schedule so I can be at the computer. Unfortunately, this market dip was the one of the least stressful issues of the day - emotion who has emotion?

Mahmood,

thanks for the scoop on CME! just kidding.

my target is $465 or so from the triangle, though low $400's seems feasible (i don't think my junes will keep me in that long). The stock looks like it kept hitting resistance at $510 and today sliced $500. i'd like to see a solid follow through tomorrow.

Where have you been? Aren't you im Omaha? email me: bdatlas@yahoo.com.

No, no, no...thank you both for the scoop on CME.

Brett,

I think I'll check out CME. Maybe I can play it without letting that old emotion stuff get me. (laughter.)

Michelle

Just a question for everyone.

On a day like to day, where we all suffer. In an attempt to stop the bleeding, does anyone late in the day, switch over to the lets say 60 minute or less charts? To kind of gauge where things might pickup tomorrow? I only mean this for positions very close to support.

Or is that technically flawed logic, if all your analysis is based on the daily chart?

I guess what I'm thinking is, if all the daily indicators are now heading down - but not to my point of exit. If the sub-daily indicators are all also pointing down, there would seem little reason not to exit early? I know this goes against the end of day close discipline.

Any comments? I'm still suffering with cutting the losers short.

Thanks
Jeff

Jeff,

If you decide to do this, it seems almost like searching for reasons to exit the trade. If you want out, get out. But if your analysis is right, stick to your rules and wait for that signal that will prove all else wrong and that will communicate to you that you should get out of the trade.

I think switching charts to look for exits is a unhealthy practice.

Jeff,
What say you on CME? I think another down day breaks that 500 mark and looks like down, down. However, aren't they supposed to wrap all the controversy stuff up in June?

Randall and Michelle

Dear fellow Option Addicts,

I am a new investor and have just started this year with Investools. To date have lost money but that is changing with the assistance of this blog. I really appreciate Jeff for
his vision and professionalism. Even though I lost money again today it was greatly balanced due to the puts that I had bought to balance my portfolio. Thank you once again Jeff for your teaching regarding having both Calls and Puts in the account. I appreciate all the stocks that are disseminated by everyone when they are approaching
support, resistance and when patterns are breaking out. Due to the big correction today I have gone through my watch list and it appears that there are many opportunities if the present market continues. I have picked out the following stocks that are at support or resistance and haven’t broken the channels that I have drawn, as a result of today’s correction. These all have potential $4.00 and above moves. I do
this to give back to every one for all you have given me. Again thank you all for your assistance. Bruce Staggs

Bearish: ASEI, CME, DHI, GCI, HOV, LEN, MGM, & RWT.

Bullish: ATI, BTU, BUCY, CAM, COG, CRS, CWTR, DST, DVH, ENR, GRMN, GMR,
HOT, HWCC, ISRG, MM, PCP, TAP, UMR, MSM, MEN, NE, PCLN, PEG, RL, STR,
SYK, TDW, TSO, VF & VMC

Bruce,
That was a really nice post. Yeah, I have either plays or looked at a few of those. BUCY looks good. Am in TSO. I think CME might be a good put play.

I, too, am pretty new to this. Have been doing much better since MarketCast, this blog and reading Market Wizards and just trading and trying to learn on each trade, whether it is a win or loss.

Have a great trading day tomorrow.

Randall and Michelle

Hey all, I am kind of new to the blog but I do like the discussion generated. This and the cast have been bringing me along at a quick pace.

I hate that I can't get on during the day during the day. Anyway, BUCY showed strength today and insiders are buying, a little. I think it has 10 points left in it.

I like the 500 break on CME, looks like 25 point intervals between support levels from here to 400. 25 points at a time may work out huh?

I know DE is something on here today but is there a bit too much profit taking? Not real sure how much it matters.

Brett, AIV looks sweet but those spreads are tough. I guess the bottom will come out eventually. Personally, I am salivating for WYNN to bust 90, we'll see what tomorrow brings.

I really felt for you last night Jeff, I hope for your sake the Jazz loses. You must be the Charle Barkeley of investools Utah.

Jason

I'm looking at CME options and can't figure out which one to buy. They all look extremely expensive. In a case like this is it better to go OTM if you're expecting a big move?

Karen,

Yes to the out of the money on the big moves but you're buying all time value so if it goes the wrong way you stand to lose more premium. I like out of the money for CME buying 2-3 months of time.But, not sure if the whole BOT debacle being settled will change anything.

Jason

I played an earnings strangle on WFMI and it made a nice move downward today. Hoowa!

I tried to play it like Jeff has described, entering a few weeks before earnings and one strike OTM. I was in a quandary on the expiration and decided to go with the cheaper May options. The down-side is I only have 1 week to unload 'em.

Long: OptionAddicts, earnings strangles and "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"

Account is basically unchanged over the past two days (still holding profits taken last week). Luck? No, just actually listened to Jeff and Eric and Brett about diversification and position size.

Long: DE, IIG, MUR, PCP (all down but not broken my support yet)

Short: DNA, RYL, PLCE, TOL (why didn't this drop more off of the bad new in this bad market?)

Scary thought: Could I actually be getting this?

Jeff, Eric, Brett and all other active posters...THANKS!

After a couple of months I kind of feel like a regular so I will congratulate all those that are new to posting on the blog welcome and it is great to hear from you. I know you will find it as valuable as I do, otherwise why would I be here at 10p?

Love the elephant man! Is that how you were feeling today? Just kidding! ;-)

I'm happy that you and Eric have pounded diversification & position size into our brains. Even though I had to exit one of my trades, and a few of my trades are down more than I like (trying not to think about it too much-like ISRG) because I was diversified, my portfolio is actually up. So, maybe I'm a little bit closer to getting this whole thing. YEAH! I guess we'll have to wait and see what tomorrow brings.

liz
pasadena, ca

HELP

OKAY..so how does one handle the upcoming day? With yesterdays pullback, lots of my stocks are close to or at a support line. Do you watch your stocks fall below those lines intra-day, and wait to see what happens in the last couple of hours, or do you cut out intra-day if your line in the sand is breached?? I hate cutting out early only to see stocks rally back above or belwo your line in the sand at the end of the day, ruining a good trade...

What say you all??

CME CME CME

The CME just increased it's bid for the CBOT and it was accepted, CBOT rejecting the ICE offer....

CME up its offer trading higher 8:05 AM EST 5/11

Pre-Market, CME up $33.00

I just hung up from the trade desk and there is no confirmation on a done deal with the CBOT 8:45 est

From the CBOT website:

“After a thorough review of ICE and careful consideration of its proposal and the revised proposal from CME, the Boards of CBOT Holdings and the CBOT concluded that the revised merger agreement with CME offered greater overall benefits for our shareholders and members,” said CBOT Chairman Charlie Carey. “Our Boards and advisors carefully reviewed both the short-term and long-term value of both transactions. A combination with the CME will create the most extensive and diverse global derivatives exchange, transforming global derivatives markets and creating efficiencies for customers and members while delivering significant benefits to shareholders. In addition, given our common clearing arrangement with CME and the CME Globex electronic platform, we believe a combination with CME presents significantly less integration risk than a combination with ICE. We look forward to the July 9th vote and to completing the transaction as soon as possible after the vote.”

Randall & Michelle,

Thank you for your kind comment regarding my post.

May you make great trades today and be very profitable

Bruce

From the CME website:
News Releases

<< [Back to News Releases]

CME and CBOT Revise Terms of Merger Agreement
- CBOT Shareholders to Receive Improved Exchange Ratio and Increased Ownership of Combined Company


CHICAGO, May 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CME)(NASDAQ: CME) and CBOT Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BOT) today announced that they have revised the terms of their definitive merger agreement. In addition, the CBOT Holdings Board of Directors and its special transaction committee have unanimously reaffirmed their recommendation that CBOT Holdings shareholders vote in favor of the merger agreement with CME. The CBOT Holdings Board also concluded that the unsolicited proposal submitted by IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE) was not superior to the revised CME transaction

Bruce..

Glad to have you, welcome aboard!

Tjanks Bob, Bruce and everybody else. I was just looking at CME and notice it is premarket 30 dollars up. Was coming to post to those thinking put. Now might be thinking call. Thanks for all you guys do to help everybody.

Today is going to be a great trading day. Let's look for those great deals and see where the market takes us.

I am thinking of trading CME. What say you, guys?

Good morning and God bless,

Randall and Michelle

Hello everyone!

MNST looks like a nice bullflag entry today.

I haven't been following the blog, so perhaps it's been mentioned.

By the way, I should have warned y'all that I was about to start trading again after being crushed again & again so that you would have been prepared for the imminent market drop! :)

Valerie W

WOW, I didn't have to type in any silly letters!

Cool!

Valerie W

I really feel sorry for all of you with PUTS on CME. You all made a great trade and who would have seen this coming.

My heart goes out to you.

CME

For me, I will not trade the CME today, The pre-market has it trading right at a prior support level (the $530 ish area)that it broke through...Will it break up through that level, or bounce off it and retrace lower throug put the day or days to come??

I have no idea...

Anyone??

Hey, yeah, no letters to type.

THANK YOU JEFF!

Yes, the black swan showed itself this morning on CME. with support broken at $500, and resistance formed at $510, this was looking like a home run yesterday, but i knew this whole merger could create problems. I figured the rest of the world was smart enough to realize that CME was going to raise the bid. Hell, I knew they would, and figured it was priced in.

Either way, i won't be making a decision until the end of the day. This is not a done deal, and some news sources are speculating that ICE isn't out of the picture yet (you would think their stock would get crushed this morning on this news, but it's up). Also, there's judicial rulings that would need to be straightened out before this deal gets done.

The bottom line: This morning sucks obviously, but i don't make knee-jerk reactions so i'll see how this thing trades today before I decide to exit my puts. It looks to still be a winning trade, but not the colossal one it appeared to be yesterday.

CME...now it is only up $28.66 pre market. my puts are hurting for sure. In the words of the elephant man "I AM NOT AN ANIMAL"
Ladd

AAARRRRGGHGHH!!!!
And my CME put was doing so well!
My stop is at 533, so it'll stop me out or not. I'll just wait & see.

:-( Pat

The last time CME made an announcement, it bolted higher, but much of the gain evaported by the end of the day (October 17, 2006). It may be risky in this market, but I'm going to hold my puts until the end of the day at least.
Debbie Davis
Antioch, IL

I am not in CME, although if they just raised the offer that means they are going to have to spend more money in order to make the deal. I am not sure how this will affect the price, just be careful as it could all be hype. Usually a stock sells after they spend money for an acquisition.
Price is king so wait to see how the market reacts.

I did my evaluation of CME last night and had a limit order in that I somehow caught (and canceled) as it did not fill quickly as it normally does with TOS, whew! Brett, Bob and others your research is amazing and sharing it with us...I can only say thanks!

Anybody know what is going on with AVB? My calls are up today, but stock prices on my puts are up even more.

I got in CME and hope it goes to 560



Randall and Michelle

AVB, ESS, AIV and all the home builder stocks are up crazy this morning. I don't get it. The news from the housing industry keeps getting worse yet these stocks are soaring today. And believe me, as a real estate professional, the housing situation has a long way to go to the bottom for a number of reasons.

The only possible reason I can think of (and I'm no economist) is perhaps the industry is figuring a rate cut will boost activity. Just a guess. It makes no sense.

My AVB puts gave back all the gains and then some but it seems to have stopped almost exactly where I've drawn my resistance so I am not freaking out. Yet.

Sitting on my hands.....
Doji Girl

Good morning addicts.
Sorry I missed all the excitement yesterday, I was travelling from Las Vegas to Newfoundland (talk about a change of pace.) I ended the day up a little, despite getting stopped out of a couple of stocks... thank goodness for the beatings on keeping diversified. Today's starting out OK too. time to jump in on a couple of those retracements.

A warning to liz and grant and Strat... just when you think you're getting this you get broadsided (or your wife runs you over with the car) with something new. I'm kind of feeling the same way, although my 401k didn't do so well yesterday.

The bizarre thing is that my Puts didn't do so well yesterday and today AVB is SOARING!!!

Brett, nobody wants CNS, buddy. I'm thinking of getting out if anyone will take them (the story of my life... no one wants me. Sniff...)

Doji Boy... no, no... Doji Man (but then I'd have to make a costume... never mind)

Susan from Manhattan,
You bought an apartment... in Manhattan. Oooooo you must be rich AND famous!!! Good on ya.

We're up here in Oakville Ontario, smog capital of southern Ontario. We're a happy family, and into burittos, Mochas (we can't find the white ones), and running each other over with the car (inside joke... you don't want to know)

Hope you find this site as helpful as we have.

Lois,

AVB has a strong past support level at the 125 area, maybe it is priced into the options that it will become resistance for the not so hot sector. I wonder if support and resistance levels are part of the factoring in premium prices?

Jason

PCP

Looks like a good risk reward entry today...

Good morning everyone. Just want to say thanks to everyone for the help on this blog. For the first time, I feel like I'm learning about how to have patience.

In my previous trading style, yesterday would have freaked me out and I would have exited most every trade. But this time, I actually had a plan and my plan kept me in. The patience is paying off today (so far, at least). But even better, I had a plan on what to do if today would have continued down, and I had some PUTS in there to help offset the losses.

Thanks to Jeff and Brett and Amy for helping me through some email exchanges. And thanks to everyone for the continual comments. I read them all and it is so helpful to get to learn from each other. I appreciate this community.

I still feel like I've got a long way to go, but yesterday and today have been a pretty big step in the right direction, I feel. Onward to learn some more.

And sorry I've been posting less frequently lately. It's been crazy busy here at my three regular jobs.

Chris & Catherine,

Does your wife run over you with a car a lot? My husband has yet to run me over, though I'm sure sometimes he'd like to. ;-)

My account looked phenomenal this morning and then it plummeted and now it's leveled off. This is why I usually ignore the first hour of the market.

I'm holding my breath on ISRG. Don't go below support! Don't go below support! I want that 20 point move.

All my calls & puts are mixed up today. So much indecision. Puts are suppose to stay down. Calls are suppose to go up. ;-)

liz
pasadena, ca

I am going to wait until the last hour for AVB. I looks to be up on the Interest rate cut talks/rumors and the KB Homes potential spin off of its French unit.

Both of these reasons do not seem to carry a lot of multi day momentum.

Glenn

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's doji boy! I mean man!

What kind of costume would that look like?

liz

Liz,
No my wife only runs me over when she can't find the bag of hammers to hit me with. Although, thanks to this blog, there are fewer and fewer days that the dreaded "Hammer Bag" is pulled out. The fact that we're pretty much neutral on yesterday (as opposed to being "Carbon Neautral" which we're definatley NOT (yet)) is proof that physical violence in the household may, in fact, have some value. The picture Jeff has posted of himself is actually me after the Hammer Bag incident. I'll have to speak to him about copywright infringement laws and their possible ramifications.

Did I mention PCU? Hope some of you got on board. And DRYS is back to it's old ways.

SNP.
Break out of Asc. Triangle nearing $100 mark
Ladd

HOG

waiting for it to bust out....

Bob,

CME is moving up. Hey, look at POT.


Randall and Michelle

Addicts,

How many times has jeff talked about RETESTS in his price patterns classes? If you haven't taken his class you really need to.

AVB hasn't failed until the neckline is broken. Same with AKAM. Retests are very common and you should always expect them. If you're expecting a $25 move, then you shouldn't get faked out after a $5 move and then a retest. In fact, do yourself a favor and add to the position if the retest is successful.

Glenn,
Don't know what option you have on AVB but I've got the June 125 and it hasn't traded today. Tells me that a lot of people are feeling the same way... wait until the end of the day.

Randall and Michelle, POT is a "Go getter" that I've had in my 401k for a while. I think it's more of an investment than a "trade" as it's quite volatile, but if you look at the long-term trade... it's a dandy.

By the way, we have a Doji Dog, too.

Brett,
you posted while I was posting but I couldn't agree more. I was thinking about adding to AVB. We'll see.

WNR is bouncing nicely

NGPS is ripping

Im picking up some LFC ...

Go, POT, go!
No wonder it's the #1 local cash crop...

:-) Pat
from N. California (aka the emerald triangle)

AVB

I am not in the trade, but had I taken it, I'd still be in it. It is approaching pretty good resistance and doing what it should do. I will be looking to get in on the retest..

It is incredible how these patterns and support lines work. Take a look at LVS had a put on it and right at resistance it bounced.

last chance for APD bounce

Not that I'm an authority by any means .... but I'm just sitting here ... leaning back ... taking a calm breath and waiting until end of day to make any sense of these last two days ... I'm in AVB/AMR/AIV/ and they're all trying to figure out 'which end is up or down' .....

We'll know later ... and we'll come up with good answers! My rules say to do nothing on this action today. Welcome to trading! :)

Jeff,

I hope you can figure out a way to show a volume chart on this blog. I think the ADV is up to around 85 posts per thread now.

Benton,
Days like today and yesterday are opportunities (as I see it) to make some great money.
Check out CME, POT, TSO, GS, just to name a few. There are some good stocks out there and some good entry points after yesterday's pull-back.

Randall and Michelle

Doji Girl...nice name. The first time I saw it the Bowie song, "China Girl" popped in my head. Now everytime I see it I hear that song...interesting.

C&C
Unfortanately I think I ate a Doji dog at about midnight last night at it ain't makin music this A.M.

China stocks are exploding today.

Jamie

R&M ... Thanks ... They are on a pretty nice pickin' list that I'm looking to deal with a little later today ... There are some 'jewels' out there right now for sure ... both up and down! Some are holding VERY steady even in the middle of this 're-test' .....

Thanks again!

Like several others have said I stuck to my plan and rules yesterday and then today again entering several trades at the retest and for the first time in awhile my trades are actually doing what I thought they would. Ok I have a PUT or two of the reservation a bit but nothing that is breaking. I see entry points all over many already listed here.
C&C - It must be some great northern terrority thing as the only other person that I know who had his wife hit him with the car (twice) is from the northern parts of the US. Ran over his foot the first time and hit him the second. What that must do to a marriage...

Jeff, Question on a topic I am not sure you covered. You always here pros averaging up. I had a great entry on FWLT OTM Aug 75's.
I like everything about this one and am going to stay with this stock.
Do I just leave those options alone. Add to those, so I have one position ? Start from this point and make a new analysis on entry, or which options to buy ? If I leave the Aug 75's on and enter a new position am I postion sized wrong ? There are lots of ways to go on this.

Any ideas are appreciated.

Jamie

Chart toppers is showing a number of china stocks doing well today. Not sure what's going on there but a lot of buying.

LFC, CN, ACH, GSH, YZC

Bob and Pam,
It's just that we're enjoying the scenery so much that we don't bother to look where we're going. Bags of hammers are far more efficient, anyway.

Jamie, sorry to hear about the 'dog. Doji's are unpredictable at the best of times and will sometimes come back on you (if you get my drift.) If you go to China, avoid the Doji Cats.

Karen (aka Doji Girl) I feel like I've stolen your Doji thunder. I appologize and relinquish the Doji franchise to your South Florida self. Stay out of the fires.

Add, SNP, PTR to the china stocks doing well. A number of these are breakouts from flags, resistance or cup n handle.

This comment has been removed by the author.

Jamie,
Just a thought from a "hammer head" here. The time to add to your position is when a stock re-traces back to a support line and is ready to head back up (or down, depending on the trend.) FWLT is at an all-time high and as far away from it's support line as it has ever been. The chances are pretty good that it'll consolidate here before heading back up. Could even pull back some. But until it breaks it's trend, don't you dare let go of those Aug 75s. Any time you're adding to a position it has to come at a time you'd buy into it if you weren't already in it.

Just my opinion

Jeff,

If you do want to measure the blog traffic you can sign up for the blog tracker from icerocket.com (for free) at this link:


I've never used it but it looks alright (and quick and easy).

Just to prove there are always two sides to every story.

ON CME I was taking a counter trend trade looking at support holding at 502 and trying to catch a bounce toward 518-522. I bought June 530 Calls, wanted to ride the bounce then enter puts. Guess what ? I closed the positon last night on the break down...and lost money on the calls.

I know some of you are hurting with CME Puts. I managed to lose money on owning Calls. I shrug it off. I've traded my plan this week and really enjoyed the ride. Hope you all have a great weekend enjoying your home life. Everybody was great on the blog this week...thank you all

Jamie

Has anyone else noticed that there's very little buying in the options today? I've got half of my portfolio that hasn't traded today. Seems bizarre on such a great day on the markets. And they're some good names too (except for CNS, the little bugger)
PENN,PCP, HOV, CNS, AVB, ATI, and AKS.

Hmmmmm

Chris,

I think everyone is still a little nervous about yesterday remembering the days following Feb 27.

Long: AMG, ATI, DE, EEP, GS, SUN, VIP

Short: AVB (yes, I'm still hangin' in there)

Thanks for the good feedback everyone!

C&C - I can understand that! I have relatives in BC and knew the Chief Building Official in Oakville so have visited many times.
Anyone eyeing VIP for a re-entry today? It is back over $100

Bob,
VIP looks like a great trade, too.
Moving up well today off of a support line.

Randall and Michelle

Who left the VIP trade?

Is anyone on the KNOT trade, I would have thought there would have been follow through on the selling and someone keeps on buying all the shares at 19. I read something about getting bough out or something. I hate to jump ship,with all that room to drop... but I have May options.

Anyone like to comment?

WOW! The traffic of this blog lately! The only shortfall is my job productivity. If you are away for even a half a day it takes a long time to catch up.

Thoughts: So many good looking trades right now! I’m thinking about getting out of some sidewinders and replacing them with some movers that like vertical movement as of late. Is anyone in BBY & MSM and extremely bored with their side-winding movements? MSM could be real easy by breaking the trendline for good today. For some reason ISIL’s sideways movement isn’t bothering me. I guess I will use Jeff’s Marketcast thoughts about is the timevalue melting to the point that it makes the probability of the trade less likely based on the month of the option expiration.

Did anyone play the FPL bounce two days ago? I’m looking at riding this one through the summer with all the air-conditioning used in Florida as well as what it seems to do during the summer, go up.

Yesterday I pulled a cardinal sin and bought VIP where it stopped me out because in the past six months, big VIP down days are usually recovered within a few days of the big down day. I also reasoned this with the fact that is was around the longer term trendline with I was going to use as my out. Today it may look like a brilliant move, but I am feeling a bit uneasy about the fact that it was an emotional move and we can justify moves in our minds in order to get our desired entry and exit points. I still have a way to go…

David S,

I guess you won big time yesterday. I've given up trying to figure out earnings... so until I sort it out I'm not holding over them (on purpose, anyway.) I held PCP over earnings because of it's strong trend... and it was a non-event.

With May options on KNOT I'd be getting out now. Your time decay's going to be enormous this week and you'll have to get a nice break in the stock for it to offset it. Take your money and run, and throw it into VIP or AMR or something that's got some room to go.

John,
Don't beat yourself up, buddy. Your sin was in using the stop, not getting back in. Yesterday was a perfect entry point, and if you'd just been looking at it with no other pre-conceived ideas, you would have said "Self... now is a great time to get into this stock."
I, too, am getting tired of waiting for BBY to break out of it's triangle. It's getting close, but that money is sitting idle. I think I'm going to bail today and put that money into play elsewhere. But keep an eye on it. once it breaks through 45.50 I think it'll keep going.

Thanks Chis, I'm over it now. That was easy.

I feel that airing my dirty laundry on this blog is therapeutic.

Geoff,

I do track the stats. This is why I made the claim on Wednesday that the traffic here rivals that of so many other blogs. Here are a few stats if you are curious...

On average 3000 to 4000 daily hits
Over 30,000 so far this month
Over 500,000 total since I started tracking them last year.

Unreal. Too bad we don't get everyone to leave comments!

John,

I thougt I smelled something...

Jeff,

That is unreal. Maybe you can post a chart showing support and resistance....

Jeff,

I'd have to quit my job if everyone left comments.

Has anyone noticed the CEG break out above the $93.50 resistance and poised for a run at $100?

Bob,

You can smell me in Pennsylvania?!?!?! My wife would believe you! It couldn’t be the trail I left behind from college, I graduated in 1990.

David S.,
Yeah, got stopped out of VIP and got back in today.

What a day. Anyone else trading the up side of CME?

Randall and Michelle

Not sure...my wife blaming me!!!

Have an opinion/perspective question...

In SKS, today there is above average volume and the price has traded in a .29 cent range, currently at -0.10 cents.

Can you only make the assumption that the sellers are about the same as the buyers, so the price doesn't move much or can you presume that the Bears are not strong enough to pull the Bears down further?

I guess what I'm asking is...can I read this in any particular way to have an idea of where this is going or do I/we need to wait and see where it goes, not withstanding the fact that it may be losing momentum?

I think I've just confused myself!

I'm sure one reason SKS is doing this today is the lackluster Retail Sales report out today.

Chip,

The volume is probably the bears trying to tug down the momentum SKS has had because of the retail numbers while the bulls won’t have it. For how this has been moving I would expect it to cool a little before it takes off again. The target timeframe puts us beyond earnings so all of us involved have a decision to make by then and only then unless it breaks support.

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...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT... ...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...I'M AN OPTION ADDICT...

About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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