Exiting a Profitable Trade

A couple requests came in for me to talk about the topic of exiting profitable trades. Uhhh....Ok. I guess if you want to exit a profitable trade, let's discuss it.

Let's travel back in time to a post I wrote up a few weeks ago...

http://optionaddict.blogspot.com/2007/06/monday.html

Take a look at the two trades I highlighted back then. SLB and GMCR. A great stock trade and a great option trade (so far). Enough time has passed to where you should be looking at some great profits on these and must be so tired of making money on them that the only reasonable action would be to sell them.

So to make it simple, here is what you do...

Push that button. Anytime you are fed up with the gains, or that money could be spent better elsewhere, just hit that button. Anytime the stock hesitates, punch that button. Whenever the stock has a lower open, kick the button. Whenever you need to set your mind at ease, jump on the button and sell.

Hopefully you got the point.

I was just having some fun...I'll produce a quick video on the topic later.

Recommendation:

Long: SLB and GMCR :)

Short: CMG?

I'd like to see the DOW bounce off 13,400.....

Yeah, Jeff. I am long a little stock in CMG but today is looking a bit like a head and shoulders breakout to me. Anyone else see that? Maybe Brett's burrito will help but this thing has to cover a lot of ground between now and the end of today to convince me.

Me too, Michelle. Hang in there. Everyone, don't panic, just follow those rules.

Liz, STR would have to break down quite a bit more for me to throw in the towel. It's pulling back right to the point where I thought it might. I just wish I would have waited to the end of the day like I have done on every single other trade ever before jumping in. My first experiment with jumping in intraday didn't pan out so well, but I'm still pretty confident it will work out. It's got a strong trend and I'm in until that really breaks.

We shall see...

Today, so far, is a perfect day. All my trades doing EXACTLY what I owuld like them too....

Gonna be a Yuengling weekend for sure..Of coures I owe C2 some coronas..

On my last post, I said that Interactive Brokers charges .75 per trade - I meant .75 per contract. Has anyone used them before? Also, it looks like I will be exiting RL at the close if it closes below 98.14. I bought a call yesterday. Any comments will be appreciated.

Okay, Bob,
I am going to turn my account over to you. At least everything is holding while the market is still heading down. The market has culled my account except two trades that are hanging on by the skin of their teeth (PVH call and MHS.) I am glad somebody is getting this stuff. I am about half and half.
Brett,
You'd better get a midday coffee with that burrito. Whew!!
I am going to go to do some editing work on my computer and pu the market out of sight and hopefully out of mind.

Michelle

Judy,

I use them!

If we're in a bull market, somebody better wake up the bulls.
Maybe they stepped out to get a burritto, too.


Michelle

The bulls had the burrito last night, quite a few of them, that is the problem.

Oh ... Mr. Kohler .. what IBrokers would have paid you for those 3 words .... :)))) "I use them!" I'll visit that site later today!

FYI gang: OptionsExpress offers pattern searches under CHARTS / Advanced .. no extra charge.

Something I have learned from you guys and Jeff ... stay out of watching this market right now ... it's summer .. volume isn't exceptional. Go have a nice lunch .. come back during the last hour and see what's up ... Then make Chart/Rules based decisions. Seems like I read emotion around here today more than usual for a bunch of great traders that are teaching me ... :)))))

Judy,

RL, I bought into yesterday too, I have diagonal support at ~$95.50 today and horizontal support at ~$96.50. RL has been hitting the diag support and bouncing off of it on very well in the past.

In my 'opinion', it looks like it's going to retest diag support.

Having said that, use 'your' rules to manage this. Don't get freaked out and panic...been there, done that. If you're not comfortable with the support and you exit, understand why you are exiting.

Several of my positions are doing similar things and I'm holding unless they break support.

As Raimo said in the last string, getting out early can be very costly. Evaluate and leave emotion out of it...as much as possible. I've gotten much better over time and the 'family' support makes it easier too!

Emotion is affected by charts.
Charts are unaffected by your emotion.
Follow the charts, or follow your emotion....

That is the question....

Liz

i think it was you that was looking for good movies,,,one that we saw recently was Click,,,i taught it had a great message,,not for little ones though,,

sue

Raimo-

Moving away from Yeats and heading towards Shakespeare?

Benton-

I'm putting my "emotions" here on the blog so I don't put them in my trading! Days like these last few tend to bring out the whiner in us (or just me).

Jeff-

Thanks for the SELL button. Now whenever I'm tempted to do something foolish I'll just bang my head on the computer and hope it hits the sell button. The headache will be enough to make me re-evaluate my charts and double check my rules.

liz

Bob,
Your wish is my command. Dow bounced at 13,480. Look out here come the Bulls.

Speaking of Bulls you Elk hunting this year?
Cheers

Patti--Investools quoted me $1,500 per year for Mastertalk. I think that is a little unreasonable. Especially because I would only listen when Jeff teaches, which isn't every week. Oh well, what can you do.

I will second Bob Raimo by saying that my account is also holding up pretty well in this market. A few little bumps, but nothing major.

Long: GRMN, PCU, GTRC and POT
Short: KIM, PFCB, KMX, ADM and LCC

Still paper trading though... But I have to say, I've been diligent with it. Sometimes I have to remind myself that the trades aren't real!

Hi Sue-

It was actually Michelle that was looking for good movies. I was just trying to remember good movies. But thanks for thinking of one. I liked the movie 'Click'.

liz

Yeah Liz!

Conditions are never "just right". People who delay action until all factors are favorable do nothing.
-William Feather

Just what I needed to hear.

John,
hope the Fathers day trip was nice for you, mine was in Missouri and Kansas, 'nuff said.

Brett,

CEO's, strippers, etc.... Tell me more about your dream job.

GBHARDCORE

Hello Everyone,

Take a look at XHB (homebuilder ETF). Breaking through some key support today with volume.

My day job is getting in the way of analyzing indivdual builder stocks for good bearish picks in the group.

As long as the 10 Year keeps going up we should see this group continue down. Interesting article today on Bear Stearns bailing out one of its hedge funds that has a lot of exposure to risky mortgages:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070622/bear_stearns_bailout.html?.v=3

Joel R.
California

Sorry i posted this on the last post, here it is again:

Ok, so I've shared my experience today on entering bounce trades intra-day on STR. It's recovering pretty nicely today and all is well.

But, my timing was a bit off as I bought it when it was at about 54.75 and it traded down all the way to 53.32 and now is back up around 54ish. I'm not worried about the trade long term, but wondering how I can improve this entry method.

Anywho -- I'm looking for a little input from those of you experienced with this. What do you look for to take the trade? I would like to keep working on this technique and your input is appreciated.

Chip, Thanks for the info. My support lines are higher than yours. I have hor. support at 98.14, which has been broken today, and diag. support at 96.21. I like your levels better. I sometimes draw my lines too high, esp diag. I need to draw more with a crayon rather than a pencil.

Judy,
The "family" here will help you hold fast to your rules. If you have to go sit on Grampa Brimely's lap he will tell you the same thing. They have been there for me when I was starting to get edgy.

Remain calm, follow your rules, and if you have to get out, celebrate following your rules.

Cheers,

Liz,

Heading towards Shaekspeare, no, Yuungling, YES!

Arty,,thanks for the DOW bounce buddy..I appreciate it. ELK, never did hunt those but someday I will, need to find a place I suppose. I am addicited to Whitetails..and I have a great place here in PA with a PHENOMINAL gene pool...only a few months away baby....

One of there days maybe host an option addicts weekend getaway..

Tim..

Are you day trading STR???

I am in Boise so that is quite a trip. Whitetail are tough and that fills me with intrigue. What is your weapon. And for the love of the almighty, what is Yuengleng?

Cheers

Tim,

I'm certainly no expert on entries as I usually buy something 20 minutes before it tanks, however, one thing that help me is to look at the 3 minute charts before I pull the trigger. They follow the same chart patterns that we use on the long term charts. If I see an uptrending stock flagging on the 3 minute, I might use that as an entry.

Another idea is to pick a (stock) price at which you are comfortable entering the trade and enter an order to buy the option when the stock trades at whatever.

Keep in mind there are no perfect entries and if you are following your buy rules and your chart analysis is good, it shouldn't matter if it goes against you a few ticks after you enter.

Bob, no, not day trading, just entering during the day rather than waiting to the end of the day (which has been what I have done up to this point).

I have noticed that often stocks will trade down to an area of support during the day and then (sometimes) climb back up. I've heard a lot of folks on this blog talk about taking entries on these "retests" during the day.

So, that was what I was trying to do. I'll stay in the trade as long as the trend continues, just refining the entry.

Arty you crack me up.

Yuengling AMERICAS oldest beer brewerey right here in good ole PA.

I love hunting whitetail, what a bueatiful animal, and WOW are they smart. But DUMB (the males) during the rut! Love the bow season.

I hunt Bow season with a Hoyt Tricon, but looking at the new Vectrix. Rifle season I prefer my Remington Model 700 .270 WSM, but have others as well (30-06, .44 carbine, 8mm mag). For handgun season, I sport a Ruger Alaskan .454 casull for bear, and either a ruger (scoped) .44mag or a Coly Python .357 for whitetail.

Arty, Yuengling is a lager beer from one of ( maybe the oldest)America's oldest brewerys. Made in PA.

Jamie

Short CMG? Heresy! (Actually I dumped my CMG this morning but not ready to short it)

Michelle,

If you want a good wholesome family movie... Star Wars 1, 2 & 3. It's a sappy love story about young boy who meets an older woman, falls in love, loses her to politics, finds her again, saves her life, get's her pregnant but eventually marry's her. He is ultimately betrayed by his best friend who cuts off his legs and arm. His wife dies in child birth. Okay nevermind... that ends badly.

How about Star Wars 4,5,6? This is a story about 2 twin children separated at birth (in a galaxy far, far, away). One is raised as a princess, the other a poor dirt farmer. They discover each other years later as fate casts them together in an epic struggle to save their friends and galaxy (far, far away). After some interesting adventures where they are separated again, find each other and separated again, they find each other once more on a planet of cute cuddly teddy bears where everyone lives happily everafter. Oh, and there are muppets and robot sidekicks. And did I mention, muppets?

Bob,
Awesome! I passed on a little whitetail last year when I was chasing Bulls. (Kinda like today) I am a Matthews man myself, don't use lead much.

BTW, I can only hold this support 13,380 for so long before I will need a couple of those Yuenglengs

Do not under any circumstance let the smooth taste fool ya!

Cheers

Tim, gotcha..

I only make intra-day entries on bounce plays, those are most successful for me. After a stock has pulled back near a trendline, I will watch it and jump in usually on the first bounce if it gets real close to my trendline. If it does not get close to the trendline, I watch it and take a bounce off a second test of an intraday support area. Does not always work, but since the trade is long term, I am still getting in at a realtively (that spelled right?) good price. Then I follow my normal rules for my bounce trades.

Art,

Your doing good. Held 13,380 three times so far.

I miss Brett. We need him to forget about the hookers and pick up some burittos...

I'd like GOOG to close above $520 today..

CLF, just kind of flat lining along today but making a higher low than yestereday on a weak day. Low risk entry with horizontal support about $1.80 below.

GOOG follow thru on Monday would be perfect.
DVN right back down to diagnal support.
Jamie

Gentleman, could we not talk about the hunting sport here? It can be a sensitive subject for some in a mixed audience and would hate to see someone offended. (I'm a hunter too.) It borders too closely to politics as a subject to get folks emotionally charged.

:-)

Sigh...I exited BSC yesterday when it
closed above resistance at 144.5. Sure enough, it's back down today. Some traders use the "2nd day rule", including IV instructor, Jason Money.
If the price closes below support or above resistance, they give it one more day. Others, like Jeff, do not.I suspect it's six of one and
half-a-dozen of the other. In the same vein, some people, like Alan Keate, seldom exit before earnings. He feels it evens out in the end. Any thoughts?

I agree with you Bottom Feeder...I'll put my guns back in the safe..

BSC bought puts yesterday a.m. Was questioning an exit, but had a crayon mark for an exit. It stayed within the limits and now I am in the positive again!! Hold on to the end!

KELLY

Holy crap maybe CNBC has an idea. I guy said sell DLB. Take a look.
Des Tri break with volume. A re-test today on light volume.

Thoughts ?

Jamie

Judy,

Everyone can draw their lines in different places. I've struggled with placement for a long time and am getting better. Problem is, my lines are not yours, are not anyone elses...

I look for multiple points of contact and also look at what a stock has done historically, which can help guide you into making a determination as to whether you have them where you need.

One other suggestion, which has been stated over and over here, is that 'generally' it's better to wait until near close to exit. I've seen so many stocks intraday be down only to rally at the end of the day. I've seen the opposite on fewer occasions, you just need to evaluate for you risk tolerance and go from there.

Otherwise, exiting, for me it's based on what the chart is showing, I'm getting better at exiting when support/resistance is broken. I've held and usually get burned worse. I entered and exited BSC yesterday too. I held PAY longer than I should have and exited right before it dropped, had I exited when I should have, I would have saved more of my capital...all risk tolerance.

The master of words
a man named Raimo
Wish I could trade like him
So I could play mo'
But beware for he is loaded
for beer, for bear and for bucks
although his trades keep him on edge
but what he really needs is SBUX

Point well taken.....back to the $vix

Cheers,

what was the relationship to the FXE to the market? because it kind of broke out

TNX is going lower

SBUX puts? especially if the market continues?

Looks like a downtrend to me?

This comment has been removed by the author.

Arty,

SBUX puts, yes, pull out to a 2 year chart, see a double top, it broke significant resistance yesterday and is likely headed down on the next leg to 23 - 24.

AMG is approaching and kissed support at 125.3, good entry if it holds.

The chipster....

Very good.

SBUX..not a good trade for me to take now, but it was when it broke $30. For me, now the R/R not worth it as it is approaching support...

Arty,

The FXE tracks the EURO/Dollar as the FXE goes up the EURO is strengthening and the dollar is weakening. Lately a weaker dollar has been good for the market.

Bo R, Ok, once again I am learning from this blog.

So if I go to PA, I need to drink beer and hunt whitetail.

Hmm, being originally from the Chicago land metro area, when we drank beer we hunted something else.

Trade on,

Glenn

GOOG gonna make an end of day run up??

Time to go Bullish on KOMG?

Glenn...

I hear ya!! Done that too!! Got a great wife out of that deal!!! Married 20 yrs this year...ready for another 20..

So much for 13,480......Here come da Bears!!!!

Kurt

Bob,

I am there too, I have an awesome wife who surely does not want me chasing any whitetail or drinking beer while carrying a gun.

I saw Yuengling in the movie "Invincible," Marky Mark was carrying a case of it to the bar he was working in.

GOOG, I have not traded it for many months as it does not have the same "feel" it had a year or so ago. It used to be just about a sure thing on a bounce.

Glenn

Raimo,

More for the rhyme than action.

Appreciate your trading wisdom and verse!

Anyone have any good entries? I've got a little cash burnin' a hole in my account.

I was looking for 13,400 to hold, which it has..so far...well, 13,380 ish...

Ok, I confess, I/we’ve been lurking for a couple of weeks and I have to come out of the shadows to say that this place is amazing! I'm learning bunches and can't wait to get to know you all better.

Stephen, I’m a little behind, but wanted to thank you for sharing your recent trade info and to tell you that we lived in Brazil for 3 ½ years. We had the chance to travel quite a bit in that country and also went to Lima and the Amazon in Peru and Buenos Aires and northern Argentina. I would be happy to pass along any info you'd like; just let me know.
Lori (& Sam)

HON is at the bottom of a 3 point channel, low risk entry and quick escape if it fails.

RESP has come back to re-test the top of the ascending triangle it brokeout of, low risk entry.

Glenn

KOMG

nice bounce on the 5yr, but still a counter trend trade for me, and I don't like that diag. resistance line it is approaching....

VIP is sitting right at the retest/support of last week's breakout. Looks like a low risk entry to me. Down today on very low volume. I'm in.

Doji Girl..

Nicely done...

Chip,

If you want to buy something take a look at MED.
Breaking out of a flag pattern on a BDD (big down day)!

Rd

It looks like the burrito magic has worn off, and it's starting to show on the stock price of CMG as well. However, it appears to be holding this $80 area of support despite the bear raid today.

Chip,

VIP is at horizontal and trendline support.

This comment has been removed by the author.

Thanks Chip and Arty for your help.
One last question on S/R...if a position is closing below diag. support but is still above hor. support, does anyone stay in? Someone once asked Jeff at the end of a TR which was the stronger support, hor. or diag. I think that he answered, diag. Any thoughts? I am looking at EXM, which is below my diag but above hor. support. Thanks.

I don't see a flag breakout on MED.

Hey Glenn,

You might want to look at HON again, it looks like it 'could' be forming a little triple top and 'could' continue down, currently it's broken support... You might be right with a channel, although looks a little if'y to me.

RESP looks like it might have a few more days to go on this. I like CEG, which Raimo got into recently, although I'll wait on this one too, nice little dec tri. (correction to the triangle)

Looks like CROX is probably a low risk entry.

DG I used to like VIP, but got burned too badly on it after making boatloads, wish I had a better 'emotion' about it, you're right looks good. I think it will need to convince me that it's going to continue its uptrend, before I jump back on-board.

Brett, thanks, I'll see if I can muster the strength for another shot at VIP! This is another form of emotional test (internal)!

Lori/Sam
I had planned on renting an apartment in Bueons Aires for at least a month. Did you enjoy it there? Can you give me a small list of your favorite places to visit in S. America? Im trying to widdle down to the must-see countries and then spend a large amount of time in each. Thanks a lot

Stephen

Chip,

I am with you on RESP and HON. Both are near breaking points so if I am wrong I can exit quick.

HON - I'll split if it closes below 55 ish.

RESP- is at Horizontal support and near the tip of the triangle I will leave if it closes below 43 ish.

Keep an eye on HON in any case this could be a good put play also.

Glenn

Hello fellow lurker, Lori and Sam, glad to hear from you! I am at "home" here will my community of options addicts. I too continue to learn much from this wonderful group of people.
KELLY

Brett/Raimo/Anyone,

Can you look at DISCA and give me your opinion please? I see a beautiful flag with a hammer sitting on top of the 30DMA, but if you look at the MACD I see the biggest divergence I have ever seen. Any thoughts on this? Thanks dudes.

Stephen

Doji Girl.
I have been in on VIP since its original break out on 5.2.07. It has retested that break out several times. Once it even gapped down well below support but did not close down there (hows that for patience, this blog really works).
Still loving VIP. And as JK once said "everyone should get long some VIP" (or something like that)

Judy in Ft. Ladida,

I'm in EXM also and it is exactly at my entry point now so I am not bailing. I just redrew my lines because since entering about 3 weeks ago, it is now coiling into a sym. triangle and is sitting on the support. So until it breaks out of this to the downside, I'm in.

Karen in Delray Beach

Thanks for the welcome, Kelly.

Stephen,
we loved Buenos Aires but only spent a few days there. I will work on a list of my favorite places. Not sure what you're looking for - cities/museums/restaurants? beaches/beaches/beaches? getting to know people in their day-to-day lives?
If you'd like to send me an email (umaperegrina@yahoo.com) with what you're looking for, I'll tell you what I know.
Lori

DISCA

All I see is a slowely trending stock. I do not see any flags at all. I see an inverted hammer sitting on the 30DMA, yes. I also see a stock that has been trading within the $1 range for the last 2 months....Nothing to get me excited.

I don't use oscillators at all.

There are better trades our there in my opinion...

DISCA,
I see a stock making higher highs and higher lows bouncing today

Bob,

I probably am anticipating the breakout. The price action and volume look good though given the down market today.

I see this as a double bottom from 6 confirmed at 8 and ready to break out of this flag.

You agree?

Rd

Hey guys ... bearish play .... Jeff's list this week ....

ATI - resistance at 115 .. No bearish trade yet … if it goes to 107 and breaks it .. 10 point reversal possible.. Looking weak … at 107 right now (last hour Friday) 1.6 mill sell volume today ... High alert on your radar ....

Just FYI ....

Lori, I am just looking to go anywhere where the women worship short pale skinny white guys. Did you run across anything like that?

Karen, Thanks for the input. I think that you posted recently info about a group that meets in Delray. I am in a group that meets each month in Boynton Beach, led by Victoria. Are you familiar with it? I like the new name for Lauderdale.

Stephen,
As a matter of fact, I do. Brazilians are wonderful, the women are gorgeous, and they like Americans. Worship? Is worship really all it's cracked up to be?
Lori

And, as is painfully evident . . . I am slow at figuring out new blog sites . . almost as slow as I am at mastering market strategies (and rules, and emotionless trading, etc. etc)
Lori

Brett or Raimo:
FPL Now a good entry point?

Sam_H (one of the Blog lurkers)

CRM: Breaking support around 41 on heavy volume the last few days.

Patience: A term that keeps coming up, but I really need to learn some. I highlight all my entries in green, and exits in red- pretty high tech, huh? When I close a trade, I put it in a file called "previously owned". Wow, incredible Peter. Looking back at this file, I'd say the vast majority of my exits have been premature over the last year. Not sure if it's impatience, fear, lack of experience, greed, or all of the above. I've learned that I need to do myself a favor and mellow out, slow it down, and believe in the trend. Realizing this has really helped me on days like today. I love solutions that require removing something (over trading) rather than adding something. That plus focusing a little more on trading stocks than options (say it isn't so). Still have a lot of learning to do with both.

Anybody else have this experience?

LONG: AMG, X, TRLG, HURN, MMM, SCEY
SHORT: ADM
(Yes, a heavy Jeff and Brett influence here, but what can I say?)

Have a great weekend!

Peter V

Judy,

Yes, I am group leader for that group and we are meeting tomorrow morning if you'd like to join us. We are called Ocean Traders on the Investools community site (but we don't post there....ssshhhh...we use yahoo). I know Victoria. Her group was already started when we joined Investools a year ago and we were encouraged to start our own group. We are all PHDs. If you'd like to join us, email me at KaRose@bellsouth.net. Tomorrow we're viewing a webinar on trading psychology...great stuff!

FPL..

Not for me, already moved down off resistance too far and close to a possible support area at 57...

I have to go to a baseball game . have a great weekend Option addicts...

Thanks Raimo

Sam_H

Can someone here who is tech oriented tell me if it is possible to have these blog comments appear as they are written rather than me having to hit my refresh button to see the new posts? I believe this can be done but I am clueless.

TIA

Have a good weekend everyone. Good blogging this week.

Jamie

Some end of day ideas:

CMG blows. Short it.

OTTR - head and shoulders. Great big target

VIP - nice bounce opportunity.

Tia, the best way to work with comments is to subscribe to the comments feed. I have found the best browser for this to be Internet Explorer 7, though it works in other browsers as well.

Look up at the upper right sidebar and find the "subscribe to comments," click that and it will take you to the comments feed.

If you are in IE7, you will want to click on "subscribe to this feed." Then, you can set the time interval to check the feed every 15 minutes and it will automatically tell you if there are new comments. 15 minutes is the quickest time interval possible on any browser I have tried.

On this blog, though, 15 minutes is an eternity so you still end up having to refresh.

No way around that, unfortunately.

No doubt on CMG, Brett. I was in this with some stock. I think the lesson for me is what Jeff has been saying a lot recently about how after a huge move on earnings or whatever, it's probably done for a while. I have no doubt this thing will eventually head back up but I don't want to wait that one out.

Still, I couldn't get in to short it because risk seemed too big all the way back up to 82 or so. What do you see as your exit and target there?

Brett, DG,

I bit the bullet and got into my nemesis of late...VIP.

Did this for several reasons, 1) it was a great opportunity, 2) got in to prove that even if I lose I won't lose big as I've made those mistakes in the past and 3) got in with small position size to help with the emotions.

Thanks for the encouragement!

Bailed on MMM today, as it broke my diag trend.

Otherwise, good non-emotional week, okay except for getting into VIP! >:-O Good Job everyone!

Well,
I just read all the VIP entry comments. Frankly, I am VIP'd out. It can't seem to stay above 102/105. It (along GS) I have been playing fot 2 months and have gotten nowhere.

Now, GOOG and SLB are boosting my account. What another bear day.

Michelle

Judy,
We use Interactive Brokers. Sorry it's taken so long to respond, just got up from my Rumplestiltskin sleep after an all-nighter. What they say is true. $0.75 per contract... nothing else. Their reports are very good... I print mine off at the end of each month and just hand them to my accountant. I think Think or Swim is a petter platform... a lot more info, but they're twice the price. For plain ol' options, I don't think you can beat IB.

I took my profits on STR at the beginning of the week, as I expected a pull back. Looks like it's happening. Another few days and it should be re-testing support. Like VIP.

Well, it's a gorgeous day out here in San Fran, so I'm going for a walk. It's been a great week for learning and trading. Thank you all for the great posts... I've got a Japanese Arch to finish this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Chris and Catherine.

Go Chip .. congrats.... One fights those often ... Glad YOU won!

Best blog comment of the week for me .. from Brett: (6.21.07 on PAY)

**************

"By the way, since you didn't ask, here's my $.02 on PAY:

Hitting diagonal resistance and curling down. doji at the top with massive volume followed by a shooting star and a confirmation today. MACD overbought and heading down. Stochastics overbought and heading down.

I really can't think of any more confirmation you would need unless the CEO came out and said he just snorted up the company's cash reserves with 2 hookers and a minor league lacrosse team."

****************

I still laugh at that one .... Good weekend everyone .. another super week around here .... GREAT STUFF! Thanks for all of you help!

Tim,

I'll probably use the high from today's candle. Normally i'd use the neckline but it's going to wind up being $84 or so if it retests, so i won't let it get back there. Plus that gap should hold. I took a small entry position, figuring if it climbs back above $80 and holds the bear trade is probably dead money. If it drops and retests the gap and it holds i'll probably add to my position.

Chip, No worries on VIP. This appears to be a clear, definable level we're sitting on here. If it breaks, it shouldn't be a big loss.

Thanks for all the comments on brokers. How much do they charge for a trade when you buy stock?

I am going to be able to save between 200 and 500 a month.

This is incredible.
We thought TD Waterhouse was high and they were taking us to the cleaners on commissions.
This blog is great. I will call Interactive Brokers and Think or Swim and see about changing my accounts.

Have a great weekend, all.

Randall and Michelle
(Randall stuck at airport and missed flight andwill be home who knows when.)

Just another day.

And the Bears are seeing how far down they can push the market before close. Can they make 200 on the DOW?


Michelle

Tim,
When I click on "subscribe to this feed" I get taken to Feedburner but then I don't know what to do. Sorry to be so dense...can you email me so we don't bother everyone else with this?
KaRose@bellsouth.net

TIA = Thanks in Advance

Need help reading HOG chart.

This is one of my stupid mistakes. I ended up buying it at 62.50 about a month ago.

I see it as a long term descending triangle or a double bottom. It broke thru the diag.line I have drawn to the upside (barely). It also had huge volume today. I don't know why?

Do you think this is a reversal of trend? or is that wishful thinking and my emotions getting the better of me?

what say you?

Judy,

You made the comment that you thought Jeff said diagonal support was stronger than horizontal...

From a recent Master Talk or Price Pattern Trading Room, I remember that he said horizontal is stronger.

--Patti

Chip and Bob,
I like and don't like SBUX for the reasons you both mentioned. It looks like is is headed on a midnight train south but it also just went flying down the last two sessions.

Please note: I am down with Destiny's Child I will not be chasing any waterfalls.

that being said I shall just watch from the sidelines now.

This comment has been removed by the author.

How bout CTV breaking out end of day today....remember that is my new US Steel from a previous post you know.

I like to get out early on the good ones.

At least I kept one contract of US Steel.

I feel shame!

Any way onward and upward!

Cheers

Tim:
I thought I was set up on this Blog, but could not easily post a comment. After reading your explanation to Doji Girl I was able to set myself up on Google.

Thanks to you, as of now I am Anonymous no more!

Doji Girl:
I wrote the book on dense.

Bob,
Had a typo so I had to resubmit.

Bob,
Sorry about the 13,480 looks like attempts 4 and 5 are a charm.

One thing I can tell you for sure is; the market is not going down tomorrow.

It will most likely be waiting till Monday.

Arty,

SBUX will retest in the future, if you're interested in an entry and following it down to 23 - 24, assuming it goes there. I got in during the past retest and am pleased to see it follow the pattern.

benton,
would you mind sharing your thoughts on the price pattern tools on optionexpress
thx
brendan

Bob....

Here is a news item that came out today around 1 PM regarding KOMG. Match it against today's chart. I think we have lost this battle...

NEW YORK, June 22 (newratings.com) - Analysts at AG Edwards initiate coverage of Komag Inc (KOMG.NAS) with a "hold" rating.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company’s share price is likely to remain range bound going ahead due to execution-related risks and a longer-term reduction in disks/drive ratios. There is limited visibility into a recovery in Komag’s revenue and EPS growth and the company continues to face margin pressures, the analysts say.

Chuck from Orlando

Hi Denise,

since it looks like everyone left for the weekend i'll give you my $0.02,,if it's even worth that....i also see a descending triangle,,,where i have my resistance drawn it closed below it....the vol was huge,,,but it closed well off of the highs,,,,if all that vol was bullish it would have closed higher,,,,big money uses ultra high vol to their advantage. if you are long,,,,i would use an extremely tight stop,,,fundamentally there are so many other better companies to put your money into,,

sue

Chuck,,


that sounds bearish to me,,,what am i missing?

sue

Denise-

I'm leaving a couple more cents along with Sue's in regards to HOG. I have not only a diagonal line drawn right around there but also a horizontal line right around where it closed today. I would watch this one closely on Monday to see what it does next. This will be a pretty clear exit if it goes too much further outside those two lines. At least, those are my thoughts on this stock.

Have a good weekend.

liz

What did you people do! I leave for a few hours to see some banker types and this is what you do with the market! Yes, I am late and apparantly the last one left at the party. All but $50 of yesterday's lift is now gone. BSC and SIRF did not help in the regard. What a week, I like Michelle had my account pounded.
Sure is nice to see all the new posters here other than I have to read so much to catch up.
Great weekend to you all.

Brendan,

Called OExpress today to double check on a couple of things:

1. There is an Itools student pricing which I already get. $9.95 per stock trade and $12.95 per option trade - not per contract. That IS their best pricing and won't go any lower. That works OK for me for now based on the number of contracts I average trading ... leaving wouldn't save me much money - a little but not enough to move.
2. I had seen earlier today in a post here that OE offers to all subscribers an Advanced Charting of patterns similar to the ITools new product that I have seen. The good news, costs no more money for traders with an account with them. I briefly reviewed it today but was too busy with the mkt. to go into depth. I intend to check it out more thoroughly this weekend but initially, I can see that it will help spotlight and pick pattern behavior of stocks and should give all OE traders who trade patterns an additional outlet for search. You can find it by going to: Quotes/Charts/ - then right corner - next to About Snap Charts - Chart Patterns / then UNDER Chart Patterns heading - two choices .. Basic and Advanced ... Click Advanced and there you have it. Then pick your patterns / filter as you wish and there you have some key ones to choose from.

Options Express has been good for me since ITools left them to endorse Think or Swim .. I am sure TOS is great .. and I see some discussion about Interactive Brokers today .. they look great also .. but it is a hassle to move from one to the other and for the money difference for me, OE is fine for now.

Hope this helps ... Let me know if you need anytyhing else.

Doji Girl,

Don't call yourself dense when I am the one who called you TIA! Ha! Funny thing is I looked up and saw your name there but in my haste to write the message I quickly addressed you as "thanks in advance". LOL.

Sorry about that. Be sure you are clicking on the "subscribe to comments" and not the posts. Posts run through feedburner but comments don't and we don't want them to because feedburner delays things a bit.

I'll send you an email so you can email me if you have questions.

Thanks,
Tim

Sue....

My thoughts exactly. At first I had to re-read the news snippet a few times but about the same time it hit the wires, KOMG recovered and went up on pretty strong volume. So...if it is bad news....then the market took it as a bullish signal and ran the stock up. Go figure...

I mean....come on....bad news....the market is down big....and my Put option is up on strong volume. I am just fixated on trying to figure out why this trade is NOT going my way so I don't make the same mistakes again on future trades. I am no expert....just trying to put the puzzle together.

Chuck from Orlando

Regarding KOMG.....am I reading the after hours data correctly??? Down 0.15 on 1,042,311 volume? Can that be right??? I have never seen an individual stock trade so much in after-hours. That is almost it's average volume. How weird...a million shares....

Chuck from Orlando

Benton,

You mention not wanting to move to TOS brokerage because it is a hassel. If you want to do it, don't let that stop you. This is not a sales pitch, just the facts of how it worked for me-- I moved 5 accounts in about a week by converting each one into cash to save time. You would need to ask how much longer it takes to move other assets. TOS even reimbursed the fees OptionsXpress charged to move me, which was high -$100 each for 4 of the accounts. Trading fees are lower for Investools students - basic rates are $1.50 for options and $5 for stocks. IRA accounts get 3 free mutual fund trades a month plus there are some other perks. For me it was about saving money on trades and the fact that Investools went over to TOS but I just love all the added features of TOS, the sophistication of tools, desktop trading platform, the recorded tutorials, live classes, and the fact that free trading help of any kind is a phone call away, etc.

--Patti

MED

A fellow addict had mentioed a flag breakout on this stock during the trading day friday. At the time, it had not broken out. I checked on it this morning (sat), and by end of day Friday it did breakout out.

Good call to the addict that pointed this trade out!

Thanks Patti .... I'll relook at TOS over the weekend .... Thanks for taking the time to give me the great information .. I appreciate it....

Raimo, RD,

Yes, RD posted the comment on MED, which was a good call. It really made a big move at the very end of the trading day, another $0.20!

This looks like a double bottom and heading on its way back up. I'd like to see it break above 9.25, which it probably will on Monday. Cheap call options or buy the stock instead, as Eric and Jeff say in these situations.

Hey, how can you go wrong when this company hired as its new spokesperson, Genie Francis, "Laura" from General Hospital?! Okay, forget her, this looks like it has potential for a low priced stock, probably a ~$3.00 target initially.

SLB went up ~$2.00 in the last minute of trading on Friday, huge volume, very nice breakout...wow! Must be institutional buying...

BNVI (Bionovo) a Trade of the Week (TOTW) pick in March, has recently slipped down, although had some big volume buying at the end of Friday too. Stock only and may be worth keeping your eye on.

BNVI is poised to hear from the FDA about their review of "BZL101 is in Phase 1/2 for the treatment of advanced breast cancer."

At the time of the TOTW, it was specultated that if this drug receives FDA approval, the stock could go up to ~$20.00 from its current $4.25. The timeframe for the company to hear from the FDA was sometime this Summer. If interested at what happens in similar situations, you can look back at DNDN on 30 March 2007.

For DNDN in the long-term, the FDA required 'additional information', which is why their stock dropped down. Their stock could also rebound if the FDA approves of the additional info, etc.

Pharmaceutical stocks can be extremely volatile, so caution should be weighed when considering. - Chip's disclaimer!

morning addicts...

GOOG pre-market (not that this means anything), but up another $5....

Good morning all...

DECK has come back to its trendline and ready for a bounce. Also CTV is at a good entry point and poised to go higher.

Jon P.
OC, Oregon

Denise

it would appear that the action on HOG must have been some insider buying on a rumor that they would be bought by someone,,,that was denied this morning,,interesting..

sue

TRLG

Rock on.

Nice gap down on ALB and PAY...Glad I got in last week...

SLV just broke to the down side of its symmetrical triangle. 20 or so pts in about 3 1/2 months.

liz

SLV looks really good....Thanks !

just glad to contribute!

liz

ZOLT appears to be a very nice add point/entry.

Bob,

I don't see a real entry in SLV here. I see a descending triangle setting up with support just over $125.

just my opinion, for what it's worth (nothing).

Brett-

This is where we need the whole chart thing. I don't see the descending triangle. Maybe that's because I drew the symmetrical triangle awhile ago and I refuse to see anything else, but... where's your top line starting from and your bottom line?

liz

Brett...

I'm with you....I did not take a trade, but am watching it (SLV). I don't see an entry yet either, but I like the setup..

I went long AAPL on 6/21...keep an eye on it today..I feel a breakout coming...

I also went short PAY on 6/21 as well..how are the hookers today?? LOL...

Gotta love the GOOG baby....

I hope some of you grabbed some TRMB too....another one making me some cash...

APH could be coming out to play. No real movements on those down days so I think it its a great anticipatory entry or you could wait until it break out.

ALso EWZ bounce?

also keep an eye on MICC low risk right now and if it breaks it will be a bounce

any comments?

Ode to the GOOG
It is starting the week
with a nice little rise
go ahead take a peek

It's candles so big
impressive and tall
It's price keeps on rising
the charts off the wall

Give me a big one
A candle I mean
What were you thinking?
Please do not be obscene!

Ode to the GOOG
let it rise run and grow
how high will it go?
I really don't know..

Bob,
I'm loving GOOG. It is keeping my account up. My KIM put looks nice.
I got into LCC again last week and it looks like a great entry point for any interested.
I am hoping for a CME rally.



Randall and Michelle

liz and Bob

I see Brett beat me to the punch. I was going to say the same thing on SLV. I think the asc triangle is very drawn out and I don't have confidence that it'll go anywhere when it breaks. It tried to break down a bit this morning but it's bouncing back up.

I got out of DO, EMC, and SLB this morning as they all seem to be curling back and I expect they'll do the same thing that STR did last week, when I got out. They'll head back to support and then turn back up. I'm still long on all three.

Today I'm getting back into STR DECK, and CTV. CROX is also getting to what I think is a good entry point. I love these ones that just creep along a line of resistance until they hit a diagonal support line and then up they go!

liz and grant... I'll be getting into Edmonton late on the 11th and then have most of the 12th in town, before heading out on the red-eye that night. Any chance we could meet for brunch? I'll have to figure out a place... please stand by.

ONT is ready to bust this symmetrical triangle. It's right at the apex. a $1.50 move on a $3 stock is pretty good, wouldn't you say?

Chris-

That sounds cool. I don't think I have your email. I'll send you the telephone number where we will be staying. I was getting so nervous with the whole passport thing but the US government has given a temporary reprieve until September because they are so overwhelmed with applications. So now I just have to bring stacks and stacks of paper.

liz

AAPL......I'm adding...

ONT...

Where did U find this gem..??

Nice, thanks...

Bob-

Tim Knight put it on my radar a few weeks ago, but he gave up on it Thursday. Interestingly enough, it's a perfect triangle, volume confirming beautifully, yet on his site devoted to CHART PATTERNS, he refused to acknowledge the triangle!!! I pointed it out to him privately, and also on his blog this am.

I hope he didn't sell it.

liz
email me at chris200@cogeco.ca

The grade 8 grad is on Wednesday and my Japanese Arch, and apple blossom forest, and everything else will be done and I will have my life back. Does anyone else remember this much effort going in to THEIR Grade 8 grad? Sheesh.

Bob, I need a poem to pick up my lagging spirits. The GOOG one was great. Do you have a grade 8 grad one? Nothing like...

There once was a man from Nantucket
his chickens were bald 'cause he plucked-it
He worked on the grad,
so much work made him sad,
When complete, he sipped beer and said "F@#&-it"

Whatever you do... don't do one like that.

Good morning everyone.

How about that KOMG. It goes up on down days and down on up days. So far, I'm glad I stayed in.

Brett & Chris-

Okay, I finally see what you guys are talking about. I just erased "my triangle" and took a step back and re-drew it. It's still on my radar for future reference.

Bob-

Love the poem. I think it's helping this morning.

Chris-

DECK looks good.
CROX-I swear it seems like everybody I know has these shoes, especially little kids.

Check out GAP (not the store) today.

Don't just get excited about the sym triangle. Back out and see the big picture.

Brett,

Well, I like the setup, and many thanks to you for sharing it...

I am going out to get some coffee..be back later....

I hope you are in GOOG too....

I am holding on to TOL, CEG, PAY and ALB....(bearish of course)

Brett,

I've been in ONT since Time first mentioned it. Got in at $1.50. My original target on that was $4 and when it briefly touched there a few weeks ago, I did not have an order in. Have been patiently waiting for it to get there again.

Thinking of getting back into PAY. Seems like good entry.

GOOG just outta control...RELEASE THE HOUNDS!!!

I'll work on a poem for you (C2) when I get back later. Gotta run out..

8th grade graduation?? Any names, details, comments you would like mentioned? E-mail me privately I'll see what I can put together...

GOOG looks nice. I am still wathing my CME to get a move on UP.



Michelle

GOOG looks nice. I am still wathing my CME to get a move on UP.



Michelle

possible bear flag on BAC ? look at the buy volume today compared to the sell volume on FRI.

Also cvx has some interesting movements on the ascending triangle.

bob,
Don't sweat it, man. I was just kidding. We need you working your magic on the market. I'm having a tuff time getting on the blog these days and even tuffer time answering emails... just looking forward to Thursday morning... the morning after the night before.

liz, I know what you mean about CROX. I got a pair for father's day... in Orlando I wanted to ask 'da boys from 'da Cast about the stock... it's still doing a good thing.

My ZOLT and DECK entries sucked today... but I like them long-term. Who said you don't need to wait until day's end for bounce entries? Hmmmm.

CBE looks good.

OK, so my timing sucks but OSG is doing really well. I'm contemplating getting out as it's peaking, and putting it on my "Hit List" for a re-entry.

And I won't beat up on this for too long... but PCU is just continuing it's upward trail. It's not even going up and down... it just goes up. You could still get in on this puppy as it's still at a good entry (I think.)

Chris-

OSG looks like it has a pretty decent level of support around 80.

PCU-did the strike happen?

liz

AMG finally decided to go insane today.

VIP...down...up...as usual still holding my breath! >:-O

What a squirrely day...and yes, that's the technical term!

testing

Test Successful

new thread!

liz

benton,

thanks for the info on OE. i appreciate it

all the best
brendan

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  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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