Most know that I am not much of a Cramer fan, but listen to his take on the fixed income market. While you are at it, don't let these short covering rallies influence your opinion. If you do, you'll never survive. Also, if you are not short Bear Sterns, I hope you have an excellent excuse, like you had other easy money trades that were generating too much money for you to worry about little old BSC.

I took the day off first of the year. Yeah, I know... slacker.

Later today I will post a poll about Chicago. I need to get some plans in place.

Recommendation: Fade the rallies...

Long: Diet Coke and Ephedrine

Short: Bear Sterns

Don't even get me started on BSC. I'm sick to my stomach that I missed this trade. kept waiting for the pullback that never came UGH!! Hope to make it up w/ NYX breaking support. I was too busy being a bull to really see what was happening. Lessoned learned!

To answer your AVB from before the 'clean cups', I see a demented yo-yo. But whatever it is, it is at resistance. If it weren't for the fed tomorrow I'd be all over it.

Yeah, it doesn't fit my buy rules, plus I don't see suppor until much further down, but, hey, if they can make profits on it, go, go, go.
I am glad somebody is getting this market. I just have some puts that are holding okay. Like I said, I don't see a lot of the stocks that I watch that are rallying. So I'm not buying.


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GS and to some extent BSC are rallying today with the market. Do you think there is still room to the downside for these? Should we use this opportunity to get short or wait til it starts to reverse again?

Would someone please look at the CAT chart and tell me if you think today's candle is a hanging man? My eyes are playing tricks on me.



With all due respect to Jeff, if you short GS here you're crazier than the old guy in the video.

I remember a discussion a few weeks ago about overtrading...sitting in front of the computer screen and looking for a setup. Looking at the same tickers and "hoping" to see something to buy or sell. I have a few stocks on my watchlist that are right at support or resistance and would make great candidates for trades. However, the trades I am currently in are going against me...puts up, calls down. I am not sure how the market can be up almost 200 points and my calls are in the red. With the Fed meeting tomorrow, I am hestitant to pull the trigger on anything. News changes everything. I learned that a few weeks ago during earnings.
So, I may miss the "perfect" entry, but I believe the market will give us more of a direction to trade in the next few days.
I sure like MDC, TCO, RYL, OFC, ALEX and CAM...


I let my wife know about my feelings for BSC this weekend… She's excited for me/us/everyone involved!

My feeling for ZOLT is anger.

Given the context of the short rallies, I find the general investor behavior humorous. Panic to the upside, panic to the downside…


Cramer is certifiable. And I think if you read between the lines he indicates that some of his recommendations are put out there to help the "people" that he knows.

DG, I would not short BSC right now. Once again it doesn't fit my rule of buying at what would be a good exit point, if it rallies. It could rally a ton before it gets back to support. OK... I may lose out on a great trade (I know Sarah. I'm kicking myself too) but that's a rule that I just can't bring myself to bend. Yet. I'll just sit here and wish I'd noticed it a month ago.

I also wish I'd noticed that ZOLT's earnings were out today. Double crap.

No hanging man on CAT today. It looks like a spt bounce and it is heatting its head off of minor resistance at about 80.15ish.


I'm not going to do it (short GS here) but I do see 190 as strong resistance and I also think today's pop is short covering ahead of Fed. Today's big rally looks like panic buying, or short covering. I notice the major favorites aren't participating (POT, PCP, DRYS, etc.) because there isn't enough short interest in those to warrant quick covering.


buying at your exit!!

I like when people learn....

I think if anybody made any profits from stock or call plays, might be a good idea to take some profits. Tomorrow when people try to unload after they've pumped the market up, those gains may disappear. My .02 worth. Is that why they call it two cents because it's not worth anything?

Yeah, I see stocks that I would like to enter and hold onto, but don't think it's wise if the market falls hard in the next few days. So I am almost all in cash except a few put plays. I'll wait patiently.


Scoot, I see it. Thanks. :)

BSC is actually up today. With the Awful news, that's gotta be short covering.


Would you please elaborate on or tell me where to find more information on the buying at the exit strategy?


One more question.

Is CAT forming the third shoulder of a H&S or have I looked at that chart too long? Is it too soon to tell?


Today's rally will be short-lived. I doubt the fed will cut rates tomorrow, and even if they do, a quarter point rate drop will only create a short term rally.

There is still plenty of downside room for the financials. If GS and BSC are too rich for you, take a look at Countrywide (CFC), Washinton Mutual (WM), Indymac (IMB). Take a look at some of the homebuilders, when was the last time they had 2 up days in a row (KBH, CTX, LEN, DHI, BZH).

Manage your position size and risk on these. I mentioned WAMU last week when they were around $38. The October puts are not too expensive. Take a longer term stance on some of these trades and go a strike out of the money.

The company I work for deals with the financial companies in the secondary mortgage market. One of our competitors is publicly traded Clayton (CLAY) (I wish I had shorted them).

We have yet to learn the full extent of the crisis in the mortgage industry and while Cramer is crazy, he is right when he sees bigger problems coming down the road.

I see $190 as a potential resistance for GS. If the fed doesn't hand out some good news tomorrow, it will be a good PUT entry. Just draw a line at $190 for the last 12 months.

But that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Joel R.

Yeh... I learn, but I don't always learn fast. I'm ticked at myself for letting my account fall 20% these past two weeks, but I've learned a lot (again) and I'm way better off than 2/27.

I've taken a bunch of stuff off the table today. With being away tomorrow, I'm nervous... so I am leaving one or two positions of all the stuff I was in except for a couple of things that had made pretty decent jumps (AMGN and GRMN) which I just sold out-right.

Michelle, I think the financials will be a good short at some point, but right now they have dropped such astronomical amounts that I worry about the bounce factor. I'll wait for now. MER BSC and GS are all up today and the Dynamic Duo seems to think that GS is going to make a go of it.

I had a pack of "Dazed and Confused Corn Chips" on the airplane last night and it describes my state of mind perfectly. I think I will adopt it as my motto.

At least my RRSP is doing well today.

NOV - quite the rally. At support. Might have to do something with this....maybe tomorrow.


It could be.



CAT could be forming a H & S. However, we won't know until support is violated with some conviction.

One thing I remember Jeff telling me when I was playing GS a few months back "GS bleeds when the market is down." I would not play it long more than a day except in a real bull market. But they seem to know something we don't. We still have jobs (laughter.)


The market is up almost 300 points. This is bizarre.


You and I see GS the same. Ditto for the more-to-come problems from mortgages. The housing problem now is nothing compared to what will happen once the rest of the sub-prime and Alt-a loans reset. The bulk of them are resetting in January and February. At that time look for a huge spike in foreclosures.

"We've only just begun"..(tm-Karen Carpenter)

AAPL and CME ...rock n roll...

PAYX..happy to see you too..

Post after Clean Cups. Yes I will be at the last 3 day in August.


OK What do the banks and mortgage lenders know that we do not? RAS, CMN, ABD, GBE, BSC, and Fannie Mae?

Is the market just speculating?

I had my first down day in a long time today, it was pre rally mostly, but this smells funny?

Insight anyone?


re: GS

The last 2 weeks are a blowoff bottom on high volume. Has anyone bothered to check the put/call ratio on this stock??? Last week i identified the major support trendline. Today was a beautiful bullish engulfing candle on strong volume right at the trendline. Call it short-covering, call it at resistance. I call it a perfect entry this morning into the best financial stock on the market.

Best-case scenario, i ride this puppy back to old highs.

Worst-case I take a small loss.

Sometimes it's better to not roam with the rest of the herd.


Good poem. Keep trying to flush me out buddy.

Chris, loved the Angry Trader.

Won't be around much this week but will check in occasionally to see if a rhyme is in order.



I posted a while back that I try to make my entrys on trades right at my exit...if I can. I have have the luxury of trading full time so I can watch closely and try to get in as close to my exit as possible, like I did this morning on GS. If GS breaks my 5 yr trendline and my Fibb retracement, be it tomorrow or the next day, I am out with a very minimal loss. Since I got in right at my exit, it was a low risk entry.


Re BSC...

You were SMART!

Never chase a trade...always get in according to your rules. And I alwyas try to get in a a trendline or a dont feel sick, you were smart!

All the financial were up. I'm with Doji Girl on this. Shorts were covering ahead of the fed announcement. A suprise rate cut will lift them all. More hawkish comments will send the short back in.

I'll short GS at a turn down from 190.


thanks for the reminder. that's why I didn't enter felt I was chasing.

Thanks for taking the time to post your logic on your GS trade...I'm sure many appreciated you eyes on that as much as I did! Beth Ann

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Beth Ann,

I don't get em all right, but I'm glad that we have a community here that can voice their own opinions.


I see green, you see red. LOL...

Today was a perfect entry on GS, no matter what this stock does. If it goes up, great, perfect, textbook "at your exit" entry. If it goes down, great, perfect textbook exit.

If there were no differing opinions, there would be no stock market.

-John Cocktostoy

If I had a nickel for everyone of Alan's fly boy buddies that had an opinion on this Blog, I would be a rich woman.


You never disappoint!

Ditto Brett.


I'm badk and not sure what to make of what I see...short covering? I got stopped out of my long positions this morning and my short positions this afternoon. Down just a bit today but mostly took profits off the table.

Oh and soften the blow by a intraday trade on the SPY. Should have made more but still testing. In fact would not have taken this real trade but opened the wrong TOS account to play in. The oops corrected 25% of my small loss today.

Can I still be an Option Addict if I only have one contract now? Only three trades working at the moment and it seems strange.

Ok, I never watch Cramer or CNBC even with the sound turned off. Since Jeff had it on the blog I watched him and wow, his blood pressure has to be throught the roof!

Bob -
once an addict, always an addict.
There is no cure.

:-) Pat

I see NOV with a hammer pattern today. Any thoughts?

Pat, that was the response I was hoping for. I just need to watch the market a bit to see how to play it and get wisdom from Jeff and Eric.

Hey, I just looked and the paper intraday trading was up twice my small loss in real money trades. I guess that points me to what I should have been doing. Just no guts yet to do it.

Sure would like Jeff to walk through trading e-minis. I have been using SPY options.

I agree about NOV and posted about it up there ^ someplace. 110 looks like solid support/resistance or like Rambo says, an entry at your exit.

I would like to see NOV rocket up tomorrow and like the hammer. I have a Aug 110/105 Bull put spread that made me sweat this morning but is looking better at the close.

I had support at 112 and secondary support @ 108 which also happens to be my breakeven point.


According to Eric, tomorrow could be another wild day. Brett, you may have placed the smart money. You and Raimo seem to be right a lot, so let's see what the Fed does to affect the market.


Beanie's Guru Contrarian Trend Theory hits 8 for 8!

Read how Jim Cramer brilliantly caused a bottom on friday.


what do you mean?

Sorry I'm just answering you. Turned in early last night.
Market Cast was just Eric. He was talking about the Fed speaking today. The stocks could rise if the statments are dovish. Or that may have been the big move today in anticipation of the Fed being dovish.


In case some didn't listen to Market Cast, Eric says again, watch the FXY. If it goes down, stocks go up and vice versa. He said if we had been watching it intraday yesterday, we would have had an idea about the market rally yesterday.


Funny how CIT answered Cramers request......

Later for the Fed....stick to support and resistance and your rules.

The market in general CANNOT just keep going up, it has to refresh, take a rest, a pullback, then continue. And that is exactly what is happening.

We all KNEW the market was due for a pullback. We got it. Now, we all KNOW it is due to head higher. Funny how "Things" or "News" or "Statements" just happen to occur when the market needs a change in direction or a correction.

Will the market head up and make a higher high again? Or will it find resistance and bounce lower?
Will Bernankes statement today make a difference?

I don't know, and I don't care. I only care about one thing...recognizing what the market IS doing, and trading accordingly, and smartly.

Support and resistance, smart low risk entry's, and listening to the crystal ball.....

Well said Raimo - I couldn't agree with your more!


Wow, Raimo! I needed to hear that this morning. Thanks

Now...about that crystal ball. Anything about Goog going to 520?:)

Thanks for the good advice at the start of the day.



never doubt it....

It will take out 525 soon enough...

It is time...


For those that did not get in yesterday....this is still a low risk entry....i say AAPL to $150..

I hope some of you were in a postion to nail down CME when I reccomended this two weeks ago..

Did anyone grab some ALEX yesterday??


cmg just rocketed

I found one of these on Long Island over the weekend. If I had eaten there before earnings, I probably would have held over earnings

long island, NY


You NAILED GS.....yesterdays entry was impeccable....impecable, impe..ah I cant spell for beans.

It was good....or should I say, SPOT ON..

We are mainly on the sidelines today in our trading account. We even have SHV now! Looking for some good plays that meet our rules for end of day to get back in a bit. Mostly we are watching to not let winners turn to losers as I have been really good at that in past months.

Bob/ Pam,

What method have you been using to not let winners turn into losers?

I am still working on this one.


Hey everyone. Today, I love CMG even more than I already did. Trading over 105 right now. Still holding Sept. 95s that I took before earnings.

CROX is also recovering a bit. If it keeps this up, I might forgive it for yesterday.


What did you see in ALEX that made you want to get in yesterday?


Oh no Anu you do not want to learn from us as we are just learning here too. We are just not allowing as much retest as in the past and if we see a change in trend watching candles, volume etc. we take at least half of the table. It always helps if you use Ramios buy at the exit strategy too.

Hey, Tim congrats on staying in CMG I am out and happy with the gain, although I would be even happier if I were still in it.

I entered LEN at diagonal resistance. Today the stock has shot through that. I don't see any news on it. My exit was a close outside of this resistance level. It continues to climb and is now outside of my risk level. Is this where I should have a plan to exit intraday? Maybe the noon hour will shed a little more light on this stocks movement. Any help would be appreciated.


I am in LEN as well and have seen the spike up. I am wondering if this is not a lot of short cover buying goin on? Brett, Rambo - what say you?

Jeff - can you fix the clock on postings - it is harder to follow the blog when you don't know the true posting time. Thanks


Homebuilders are dangerous ground, especially if the one you're in doesn't go bankrupt. If I were in LEN, I would probably use $35 as my exit area. If this is just short covering, I would expect the stock to get beaten back down soon if it's going to be.

My take on Len and all stocks that are influenced on the rate outlook from the FED dovish or hawkish stance are going to be volatile today.

Those who think a rate cut is in the forecast will want to buy those stocks and those that don't will sell.

So be careful as technical analysis on those stocks will be gone out the window as news will change everything.

That is my view point

Christine- No, I can't.

I agree. I sold all my homebuilder associated puts except one that was still below resistance.


P.S. I expect a market rally today.

Today is hard for me to sit on the sidelines and watch (now at least) all my fave stocks moving up while I wait for the fed to say nothing. At least my GME is participating nicely. I realize now, too late, that I could have bought the NOV and DRYS that I was ogling yesterday and sold them by now for a nice profit and still be out before The Announcement.

For those of you looking for a stock, DNB might present a good bull entry.


clean cups!

GPRO - thoughts on this for a bull entry with support at $64? They just reported good earnings, raised outlook for year, good fundies, their industry group just went green on the big chart last week.



DNB? I don't know. I see it breaking support at 100 to the downside and now it's retesting 100 as resistance. One could call this a good bearish entry too.


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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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