Thursday

I am going to be locked away today creating a presentation for tonight's basic options open house with Tom. It's been a crazy week, but things will get back to normal soon.

I have some photos that were sent in by some readers... take a look!

Here is John Logan sporting a nice shirt, and listen to this...

"This is the Logan family in front of our new lot where we will be breaking ground in three weeks. The house will be an upgrade and option trading will be a big reason why. We still have a long way to go but this blog is proof that the possibilities are endless!"

Nice work John!

Tony Sciarrino's got a nice hat!

Now you know why he's called "The Bottom Feeder"- Nice hat!

Cinda and the Marketcast

I continue to love this volatility. If you haven't day traded before, these are the types of conditions you want to trade in. I would avoid day trading options, but if you are interested start looking at intra day charts of the Q's rather than the e-mini. Unless you know what you are doing, of course. At some point I will write more posts on the topic.


BTW- I love GRMN

Recommendation: You should love them too.

Long: GRMN

Short: Working

Nice gear everybody!

liz

Tim-

As per the other page... I wasn't able to close out the spread so I tried to close out one leg at a time and now I'm stuck with one leg. And TOS said there's not much I can do at this point.

liz

Great pics! Jeff, I would love to know more about day trading. I've been tempted but I am askeered.

Hey Liz. What was the underlying you were trading? If you said it before, I missed it. I would just like to see the setup so I can learn from what caused you to not be able to close out the trade.

Nice fish bottom feeder!!!

Tim-

60/65 Bear Call Spread on MCK. I thought since it was only one contract and not so big it was a good one to start off with but, I believe that I forgot one important factor--- liquidity! And now I'm stuck!

liz

liz. ah, ok. so you closed out the 60? i guess you can just hold the 65 and hope the rally continues like crazy. Thanks for the info.

I forgot about earnings on LVS and this morning checked and see "profits fall" and think "OH CRAP"....but then look at the stock...up almost $6....go figure. I lucked out this time!

Debbie L

Well, I sold LEN and now am in all cash. It feels wierd but I am taking a little time with the family and the computer gets in the way. Len was a great trade but all the homebuilders and the XHB were up today so I had to let her go. NO matter where she goes, we always had July.

BEWARE THE RISE OF THE PHOENIX!!!!

(BPHX).

Tim-

Yes. I am once again putting myself on the "VIP" list. Now I have to cross my fingers and hope MCK gets past 60 before too long so I can sell it.

Well, I wanted to learn how to trade spreads. Guess I'm learning. ;-)

liz

John Logan... SELL THAT PROPERTY!!!! I zoomed in on the picture and there's a GREAT BIG elephant terd sitting on the ground in front of your lovely family. These animals are vicious and can become The Rogue.

Ha, ha, ha. Sometimes I crack myself up. Actually John, I'm seriously jealous. We're looking for a ranch up here and I'd love to do what you guys are doing. One day....

Great OA gear and snaps, folks. Jeff, thanks for posting them all.

Bought into PCP yesterday as it seemed to be a good support level. It's up big time today. I took a larger position than usual on it as it was at that "sweet" entry point that I could get out quickly if it failed the 1% rule. Instead, the options are up 50% today.

Tim SLB is my TSL. I'm getting a bit grumpy with it but it's flagging really nicely here. I think it's worth a look for those who are not in it.

Can't remember who was talking about OXM back there but I see it as a good bear play... in a couple of weeks. $100 was pretty strong support a while back and to me, it looks to be at the bottom of it's downward channel. I see it sitting at, or above the $100 mark for a while before it resumes it's downward march.

Brett, thanks for AMGN. I needed a good put and that has been unbelieveable the last couple of days. Thanks, man.

GRMN... I took out a single contract to hold over earnings. Wish I'd done a few more (sort of like those nasty drugs... one is never enough.) But it is on fire!! Hope some people out there had the courage to have a bigger holding of it.

Liz, I'm not getting why the 60/65 bc spread was a bad trade. It hasn't even hit 60 yet and I don't think it will unless Raimo does some serious bear hunting. Was this an August trade or Sept?

Brett - Was just looking at that. Not in it ...but looking.

LVS
I see an inverted H&S which has confirmed today. Half of its expected $12 move has happened today. Watch for a re-test over the next few days. Entry target... back at $86. Exit target $98.

Doji Girl-

You right. It hasn't hit 60 yet. Maybe I was jumping the gun a bit but I didn't like that it closed above 58 yesterday (which was above horizontal support/resistance) and I didn't like it's price action today which is above a trendline I have drawn. So, I might have been a bit preemptive but it's my first "real" credit spread. I'm much better at directional trading. I'm trying to "adapt". And I'm still learning. ;-)

liz

STR

This stock crashed through very strong support at $52.50, then bounced off it's next support of $50, only to bump it's head on $52.50 and head down again. If it breaks through $50 on good volume this time I see this as the beginning of an excellent (or "egg salad" as my girls would say) bear play.

This comment has been removed by the author.

Regarding OXM I see support at around 40. I also see diagonal downtrend.

LZ does anyone see a double top?

WTI

Just keeps going down for me... love that.

liz

Loving the 'pheonix' -- thanks Brett. I'm in it with you!

C&C - STR. I see what you see. I'm not buying any puts. Here is why: In short, my rules. I took a call a few months back that are now sitting on a worthless position. Everytime in the past I attempted to leg into a spread trade (jump to the other side of a bad trade), I ALWAYS LOST MORE MONEY. So, because of that I'm sitting out. On the other hand, I like the setup and if I didn't have this postion and history, I may have jumped in.

thanks
strat

Brett,

I almost pulled the trigger on BPHX this morning but decided to wait for confirmation of the bounce. We have confirmation and I missed it. It is a stock play with no volatility worked into the pricing which makes it rather easy to limit risk. I should have known better… Next.

Once again, I looks like BEAR Stearns is living up (or is it down?) to its name.

Just wanted to say thanks for the forex discussion this morning. I think I'll hold off on the forex until I'm more successful in the markets. I've got to at least make it up to class dummy before trying the forex.
At least I've made it to village idiot; I'm making progress!


:-) Pat

Logan - Congrats on the property. Don't sell it! elephant turds are great fertilizer!

Flag forming on AMLN.

Debbie L

Brett,
Another great call on the phoenix. I am on the sidelines today watching and sad for it.

Question: If NOV bounces here good entry?

Cheers,
ARTY

FAIR WARNING

I will be bear hunting later today...

RIMMMMmmmmMMMMmmm....

Arty-

Why are you watching? Isn't today a confirmed breakout?

"Anyone looking for a honey POT?" asked Pooh, as he wandered through John's new property. For those who can't get enough... this is the entry you've been looking for.

Arty, I sold a put vertical on NOV this morning when it bounced off of 112.50, which I see as support.

Liz, when I trade verticals, I trade them directionally, just like I do with buying options, which it sounds like you did as well. That means I always have a support/resistance level I'm watching and I try to sell stuff that's beyond that support level. I think your exit was good on MCK if this was your strategy.

I need to ask this question anonysmously as I hang my head in ignorant shame. When it came to the worn out question of "Do I hold my options over earnings?" I would answer if you don't have any inside information as to what the stock will do, you're taking a 50-50 chance on it going up or down. If it goes down, have your position size so that it won't hurt too bad. With all of this high volatility many of my uptrending stocks gave me a bloody beating- GOOG, JOYG, CRS, MTW and many others not only went down they gapped well down below my stops landing me in a painful thicket of losses. So I need to ask you all your advice on the old question of holding over earnings, does it change your mind any during these periods of high volatility?
Anon.

Yikes, the only thing I do vertically is my job. One day when I graduate from Idiot school, I'll try that.

Arty, I love the look of NOV. I'm tempted to get in at close today, as it's right at it's support. Easy out tomorrow if it doesn't work out. I'm in the air all day so I might stoop to a (sharp intake of breath)... mechanical stop but I think it's an excellent R/R trade.

PCU... I'm being a bad boy on this one (I hear the chicks dig Bad Boys.) Actually I'm regressing to moron on this one. The good thing is... like any addiction the first step is admitting you have a problem. I got into PCU on Tuesday. It looked like a confirmation of a bounce and I have a secret passion for PCU. I am now down 2% of my account on it but it has pulled back to what was really, TRULY it's support level. I am not getting out, even though I should. My name is Chris and I am a part-time moron. Unfortunately there is still room for it to come back a bit more before it triggers a sell on pattern alone. I will let the loss go a bit more. Why? Because I'm the Captain, and the Captain's always right. He might be "right" to the tune of -$1,200 bucks... but he's the Captain. I have broken my rules and I know it. We will see if this is the exception that works, or if it's the reason we have friggin' rules in the first place.

Stay tuned

Hi, my name is CTRP and i obviously have good earnings coming out Monday. Nice bounce off the sym triangle apex.

Will someone be kind and deliver some No-Doz to the traders in the GOOG pit? They must be very thrilled today.

Now if you're excuse me, I need to pay heed to the rise of the PHOENIX!

Anon,

I held SNDK over earnings but I did so with much fear and trepidation. Although the cat jumped my way and it had good earnings the volatility was against me. The stock jumped up in after hours trading and remained high but it closed low and I ended up giving back some profits. I hate that!

It's against my rules to hold over earnings and I won't do it again. If we don't have discipline, we have nothing. I work really hard to be a good trader and make money and because of that I am no longer willing to gamble with my money.

Someone here, Brett I think, said "We don't gamble, we manage risk." Words fitly spoken. For me personally, I would rather risk not making money than risk losing money.

Follow your rules. Be disciplined. Im sorry that you lost money, I know that frustration.

Laney

Raimo,

While hunting bear, stay away from my BearSC!

Anon,
Volatility or not, I've given up holding over earnings intentionally. I sometimes miss the fact that earnings are coming up, and hold them by mistake. This causes considerable stress in the C2 household and usually results in bruising to my milky white skin, but a marriage without some sort of husband abuse is generally a pretty boring place.

The one exception was GRMN. I bought one contract and was willing to lose it all. But I had a hunch I wouldn't. Can't tell you why. It wasn't any of Catherine's mystical voodooism or anything like that (I'll have to tell you our story about Sept 11 sometime. Talk about spooky) I just had this gut that it's earnings were not already built into the stock. It's worked out well. But more often than not it doesn't.

I avoid earnings like the plague. Locusts, lemmings, bubonic. Any plague. Bad.

Tim-

Thanks for the vote of confidence. That was my strategy. But I think I'll be sticking to ETFs from now on. More people playing spreads.


Chris-If you're part moron and I'm part moron, if we sit together will we become a whole moron?

liz

Anon -
Earnings. What Chris said. Ditto.
NYX - Just noticed a symmetrical triangle. I'll be watching it...
Gotta go check out NOV & CTRP - Thanx, guys!
(too late for the phoenix. bummer, dude.)
Pat

liz,
I'll have to check with the Doli Lama. It's either that or we'd be complete morons, which in my case is closer to the truth. Either way... you'd have to ACTUALLY SHOW UP to find out. Just kidding, you know that, right? Where does Grant fit in to that scenario? Morons usually need supervision, so he could supervise. It might give him time to heal from the kickboxing side effects.

Yeah, I am mostly on extremely liquid ETFs when I do spreads. With stocks I usually want them to be over $100/share and the options to have at least 1000 open interest each. NOV met those criteria.

Rambo, get out yer guns, dude. The bears are rolling into town!!

Tim-
Thanks for the insight. It's been a learning process. I'll keep that info in mind for future spreads.


Chris-
Speaking of kickboxing, I'm off to class. Grant is in charge for the rest of the trading day. I can't let too much time pass before he gets another round.

liz

I see. And i just got in a supply of ammo from ATK..

unpacking now..

Don't shoot ALL the bears, dude.
I'm kinda likin' BZH, MER & FRE...

yesterday, my first post in awhile was IBM bouncing off support.

OCT 115 calls at 2.50...trading 4.80 today....boring name I guess but nice.

Jamie

Tim,
I like the bull put spread on NOV idea. Are you doing Aug or Sept?

Pay attention, class.
Yesterday I got askeerd when SGR pulled back. It dropped below the support line I had drawn so at 3:15 I sold it. By close it was right on support. Today the stock is up 6%. The call that I sold is up 50%.

Wait for close.

Doji, I'm in August 110/105.

Our internet has been down for almost two days, so I had to rely on stops. With the market movement what it is, well, it sucks watching a stock stop out and then do what you thought it would.

Michelle

P.S. Some put plays I'm in or watching are: KIM, BRY, OVEN, VCP, ENER, PSA, CNL

CTRP Nice Volume - Making a Move

Chris,
I got stopped out of SLB and PCU and (darn it) RIMM. Couldn't be helped. You probably know how it is when you are away from the computer. You have to put stops in and do what you do.

Michelle

Nice bull put play on CTRP. 15 days and look at that IV. Pretty good support around the 37.5 strike.

C2,

Check out my fav FWLT. Do those last couple of days look like a mirror image of POT or what.

FWLT earnings 8/8

LCC

MIGHT, I SAY MIGHT, be completing the right shoulder of what would be a perfect setup for an inverse H & S.

Obviously too early to know...but throw this in your watch list.

IP

nuff said

This new ammo supply from ATK....LOOK OUT BEARS

Bulls are KING

MORN a shot of viagra today??

Silly Suckers.

Your naivete is predictable.

The Rogue does not identify Himself with four legged beasts. The Rogue is neither bullish nor bearish.

The Rogue is forever.

Suckers.

Well, I tried to get into selling a put on CTRP but it never filled, ditto for a spread trade on NOV. I placed the orders at the mid point but sometimes you win and sometimes you don't. Tom S said don't chase them so I didn't. Tomorrow is another day.

Doji Girl,
I have chased too many trades only to see the market move down and I took a loss because of getting a stock at the wrong time. There will be other good trades tomorrow. I hate when I miss a trade, too. RIMM, got stopped out yesterday when my internet was down, and look at it today. Hey, maybe our bear plays will do well tomorrow.

Michelle

Only time for a quick hello and then I disappear again. Thanks for the congrats!

My account was up nice again today. I am wondering if this "new" market that Eric and Jeff are taking about is my thing, even Pam commented on it today. Sure which I had time to do some intraday trading but that other job I have is keeping me busy.

I am really having a difficult time keeping up with the posts here.

Hey, Jeff did you get those pictures of the cabinets that people wanted to see or did I need to put people in them to get it on the blog? For some reason no one would take my picture next to them. Maybe I needed a shower...

As our famous Gov said once, I'll be back - later tonight.

CTRP, love to see follow-thru tomorrow.

FWLT...keep going higher.

Also, took a counter-trend trade on GS today towards the lows. My stop will be just below the low on yesterdays hammer.

Long UA, CTRP, EGLE, FWLT, GS, IBM, POT

Short AMGN, RTI, and ready to pull the trigger on the SDS (2X Inverse the S&P 500).

When the VIX is high let these fly:

All ETF's

DDM 2X short the DOW
SJF 2X short Russell 1000 Value
SDS 2X short S&P 500
QID 2X short QQQ
SFK 2X short Russell 1000 Growth
MZZ 2X short Midcap

There are also 2X long ones also if you are interested.

Bottom Feader what is on those other two lines ? those poles look pretty bent.


Jamie

MDC PUT

What do you guys think about MDC PUTs. M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC) is a homebuilding company. The Company operates through two segments: homebuilding, and financial services. I am bearish on homebuilders, and with this stock I had a strong support/Resistance at 47.5. It broke resistance today. Would you guys still be in this one? Or would you give it a little more room to run?

Jamie, the two poles you can see are on downriggers. I'm holding a 14 pound Lake Michigan salmon that my 11 year old son Tyler caught.

The fishing has been fantastic this year. If I could trade options as well as I catch fish, I would be a happy, happy guy.

MikeH

Mr. Rogue

When you look in your account and see that it is down, it was me who took your money.

Hey, Raimo,
Did you take mine, too? (Laughter)

P.S. That would be one way I could explain the account losses to my husband "Raimo took it, my dog ate it, Options Express has made a terrible mistake."


Michelle

Did anybody notice that when you click on the "scrapbook" pictures that the OA gear seems to glow? Especially, the shirt that John Logan is wearing. Oooooh.... It could just be my monitor. I'm so excited! We'll be getting our OA gear tomorrow. Just in time for our 3 day in Utah this coming Monday.


I am officially a dork! Or (IAOAD)to be entered into the OA acronym dictionary. So, during kickboxing today... I was doing a spinning back kick and my leg decided to turn and my foot didn't. You know what that means... sprained ankle. It hurt but when I fell I started laughing from embarrassment. Oh, well. Now I'm icing my ankle and trying to relax while still chasing 3 boys and trying to get caught up on the blog. Hmmmm...

liz

Liz, sounds like my son's karate lessons. Sorry to hear of your sprained ankle.

Well 20 minutes to the Jeff and Tom show so thought I would check in before the session.

I was not here much and my account did pretty good. Yesterday and today have been good days for us. Chris you may relate to this as it shocked Pam. Ok, maybe surprise was more like it. Maybe I have moved up from nit to half WIT. Hope I can still be part of the village.

looks like Bob beat me to it.....Jeff and Tom's option class tonight at 7pm

for the record....i am "short" circuit city's computer repair dept...they said 10 days to fix the laptop, it has been 16 and today when i called they said not to expect it til mid next week !!!
they stink !!!

liz,
I've always said that Grant was an abused man. This is what happens to the abusers. The great thing is that you can continue to trade no matter how badly your ankle hurts.

Rambo, thanks for taking out the bears this afternoon. I had to go out early as it's Halifax, and it's 4 hours ahead of the California gang. And we have to drink and eat out here on the east coast, you know. You took out the Bears, and you made life good. My RRSP (which the Rogue has no idea what it is) is up 2% and my options are up 3%. This is all The Rogues money. He is the sucker. This site is for positive purposes, and those who choose to ignore that fact, do so at their own peril. Except when it comes to damning those incompetent companies who don't play by the rules. Then off you go to the sandbox in the sky.... You and the Rogue. The elephant terd of the 2007s.
OK so I may have had a couple of extra beers at dinner. Rambo would approve, I'm sure. And from the man who took out those nast bears today... things could be worse.

I'm putting in a bid for NOV tomorrow morning.

Bob (and Pam),
Have you had a look at WIT? (or 1/2 WIT?) I have no idea who they are or what they do, but it could be a good bear play. Just goes to show that anything goes in this game. So far it's me 2... The Rogue 0.

Blake,
I like MDC as a bearish play for a few reasons. For one, it has awful fundamentals and it is bumping up again resistance. I'd wait to make sure it stops going up before I jump into it. But if the market heads south, this one should follow. Just wondering why it was up so much today.

Chris,

If the those on the space shuttle can drink and fly, you should be able to also.

Jeff,

I like Tom Sosnoff's BSC short put but I see stronger support at 110 so I'm thinking if it drops down to 110 I will take it. What say you?

I have used Red Option and been to a few TOS seminars. I have found it exceedingly difficult to put there strategies and philosophies together with what I have learned through IT Basic Options.

One thing I have learned is that TOS has a very different way of looking at things and do not look at charts so much, how crazy is that? I am trying to learn some of there processes and integrate them with what I have learned through IT. Surely, their is a middle ground. I would love to learn adv. Options through IT I just can't afford it quite yet so I have been determined to try to teach myself.

Sorry, just rambling at this point but I would love to be a fly on the wall when the TOS and IT groups get together. Gotta be interesting!
Rene

The Rogue, he claims, is not bearish or bullish
we all know his rants are childish and foolish,

I am sure he is also unsure of his gender
and at the end of each weekender,

he is alone with nothing but his only
part of his body that fights off the lonely,

so let's make a pact and refuse to tolerate
his words designed to only berate,

those on this blog who are much too mature
to deal with one who abuses his computer,

so to you Rogue, fine a new arena
to promote your verbal diarrhea!!!

The Phantom Poet

PP,

YEAH!! What you said PP. Rogue... Runawaaaaaaay!

Kim

Rene,

Market makers (ToS) look at trades from the mathematical and probability perspective. Charts don't offer them anything. It's all about the numbers. On the other hand, we look at things from a technical perspective. When we are able to combine forces, it will be an amazing product.

Please leave any feedback about the event, if you have it. Be brutally honest, and remember the purpose of the event; basic options. I'd love to hear opinions.

BTW- Who is the Rogue? Someones alter ego? I'd hate to have to get involved...

Jeff,

Was the webinar with you and Tom recorded? I signed up, but couldn't make it live.

Jeff,
I don't know who the Rogue is but I am sure he is not someone on this blog. If you have ever wandered over to Tim Knight"s blog you can see that there are many blogsters with alternative agendas that do not contribute to the community as a whole. This blog is unique. Intervene all you want, the guy is a blow hard/jerk/loser....but not a village idiot because Chris and I relish that title.

I have attended two live TOS workshops and I have listened to just about every one of their audio chats which are freely available on their website.

They teach an approach that is very different. More of a market neutral, positive time decay approach. I'm sure the Rogue would like it.

They also do address directional trading and I have found the knowledge that they provide to be extremely valuable in analyzing even directional trades. In fact, I feel comfortable trading directional spreads based on what I've learned from them (and from Jeff). I've never been through advanced options with IT.

When the market changed a few weeks ago, I decided to give the TOS approach a try, so I set aside a small part of an account to do that strategy and in my main account I am still trading directionally. I find I have to really keep them separate as they are two separate approaches. One major difference is that TOS pretty much teaches you not to have lines in the sand or stops to take you out of trades. Again, as Jeff said, it's all probabilities and if you have stops, you are making the probabilities lower.

Anyway, we'll see how it goes. At the very least, I am learning a lot of stuff, like the fact that short spreads are only positive theta when you are on the right side of them :)

Hey Jeff, I couldn't make the open house. Is it recorded anywhere? I'd like to hear it.

Hey Chris,

When you "put in a bid" for something like NOV, where do you put it? This is something I've been working on in my recent entries and it's been helping a lot. But looking at NOV, can you walk me through your process of determining where to put that limit order?

Ok, my last comment for the night. Every so often, I think it's good to take a step back and admire PCP. Look at that trend. February 27th didn't hurt it. The last two weeks haven't hurt it.

I bought stock around 100 and three months later, I'm up 40%. In stock!

This one trade is a reminder to me that this stuff can work. Despite all of the ins and outs of trades I've been in there are the "winners" out there that just keep running. Unbelievable.

Brett,
This goes way back to your question,

"Why are you watching? Isn't today a confirmed breakout?"

Yes.

I was watching because I had to actually set mechanical stops this morning and I was away from my computer 95% of the day.

Cheers,
ARTY

Somebody alert the media. We have OA gear in Boise!

This is a test

jeff
i thought the options class tonight was pretty good, it would have been more valuable to me ~8 months ago, but that is only b/c you and this blog have brought me far past the "basic" level.
i would be intersest in episode 2, if there is going to be one.

chuck (o-town) where have you been??

Chris-

I looked at WIT. Very funny that it fits. Oh, and Chris, just because Sean M. reminded you that astronauts drink and fly, I'd rather you didn't on the flights I'm on.

For those that want to listen to the open house from tonight... I believe (if I'm remembering correctly) that if you follow the link that was sent to you in your email it will take you to the recording (you may have to wait until tomorrow). They've recorded the open houses in the past. I'm sure they recorded this one as well. At least, that's what I was banking on as I couldn't listen to the live event either. 4 o'clock (my time) with small children is considered the witching hour and extremely difficult to do anything except try to get them to calm down.

liz

Okay, I lied. You can't connect to a recorded version of the open house from the link. At least not tonight. I just tried it. I'm going to ask IT tomorrow.

liz

I have to look at NOV as Pam has held that forever and made good money (paper though). Tim, I am in PCP too and have bought at the dips for the last few months - great! I could not find the Open House recording either. Jeff, I think it was a good basic overview as it was said to be. Was a bit basic for us but we have done the IT Adv Opts so I would hope it would be. I look forward to future events.

Jeff,
I think your presentation was great for a Basic Option intro. as it was advertised. Tom may have talked a little over head for newbies with the derivative talk but I liked the platform presentation myself. I have done a few of his virtual trader sessions. The main reason I had to listen in was just to see how the two of you could come up with one cohesive presentation knowing each of you individually and how differently you trade.

Personally, I've been with IT for 2 years and trading options for 1 so it was a bit basic although I do need to learn more about the ToS platform.

The biggest problem I have as a trader/student is time management. I have done Mastertalk, trade rooms, live ToS and IT events and ToS's Virtual Trader (which is over my head) I find they are not always a wise use of my time when everyone in the room is on such different levels.
I went to my first ToS event last Dec and it blew my mind. I've tried a few Virtual Trader sessions and used Red Option a little to try to learn a few of the strategies but came back to straight calls and puts because of the market conditions. I did really well with the Red Option strategies (Iron Condors and calendar spreads) until May and then I lost everything I had gained in a month! Sucks when you look at the charts and you go why didn't they get out when it broke resistance, of course it kept going up!!
Anyway, seems like there is valuable information to be learned from them too, its figuring out what is important and incorporating it that is difficult.

My question to IT as a student is this:
Has there been any thought put into breaking down students into groups based on education/trade style/...?
It just seems there should be a few events/functions that cater to those students that have been actively using the site for a few years and assume a basic knowledge of options trading.

Anyway, that's my story and my 2Cents.
Rene

My wife ditched me tonight (she thought sleep was important for some reason) and I had to drink wine by myself as I read the past couple of day’s blog comments in their entirety. Since it took almost a whole bottle, I am sure to have an overhang when I wake up in five hours… I usually don’t do this on school nights, but, it just felt right.

Thank you for the congrats on the new home. We are excited.

I didn’t understand all this Rogue talk until now… This is too easy, like taking candy from a baby. Listening to the baby crying is no sweat to overlook considering the source. A special OA cheers goes out to Rogue. I assure you, your money will be well spent.

vHey there Roguemeister,



So no legs of a beast
perhpas you fly like a bird
But one thing is for sure
You smell like a turd

You think you're immortal
call us addicts all suckers
But I bet face to face
Your A _ _ H _ L _ puckers

Not afraid of your tone
and don't appreciate your post
bring it on if you can
I guarantee you'll be toast

This blog is for purpose
To help all bloggers trade better
If you have a good purpose
let us know in a letter

But if your here to offend
and cannot contribute
Then the Phantom Poet
I will have to recruit

And I'll go one step further
I'll get a real smarty
Yeah, you know him
That's right I'll get Arty

We will run you outta here
you'll run like a gazelle
Get hit with C'2s hammers
by Liz and Michelle


Ps..thanks again for your money!

So get with our program
We are all here to learn
If you cannot be constructive
I'll kick your stern

Jeff, I too thought your part of the Basic Options presentation was spot on but too brief. I am past basic options but always want to hear your presentations so I tuned in. I am not a TOS user so Tom's part was not very helpful, especially since he went way past basic options or basic trade information. I am interested in learning about the TOS platform so I will try to tune in for such presentations in the future.
Thank you for your time as always.

Ramio,

You are up early. In reference to the Rogue your prose said it all.

I don't think guys like this really have a clue about what sites like this are for.

I appreciate all that you share, man

Thanks.

Anu

Hi Jeff,

Dan and I listened in last night. As always it was worth our time overall. We feel like we actually listened to 2 presentations, one on basic options and the other of the TOS platform. We use TOS so we liked seeing some of the enhancements we didn't yet know about. To me though it felt like you and Tom had conflicting goals. Awesome though to listen to two guys who know their product so well...options and TOS that is.

Kim

Anu,

True option addicts check the blog first thing in the am before they check their e-mail. It's sick, isn't it?

Anyway, good morning.

Kim

Did I forget to mention that being option sick is a good thing?

Kim

Any idea why the oil stocks are taking such a beating lately? I got stopped out of OIH, NOV, NE and SLB. I guess I need to search the web for some news.

Michelle

Kim,

I just had to laugh when I read your post. It seems we are all on the same wavelength. Its good to have company.

Anu

Michelle here is a link For Oil http//online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader

Jeff,

I agree with Kim on last night's open house. Two different sessions would have probably been more helpful. I always enjoy your teaching style and your comments give me lots to think about. I realized that I need to diversify with more stocks in my portfolio.

I had to leave the presentation early, so I will look for the recording.

Happy Friday, Everyone!

My market news says that stocks are set to open lower on jobs reports.


Michelle

Today could be interesting. If we get some big downward movement, the 200 day SMA for the SPX is just above 1450. Institutions love to buy bounces off of this average - this may well be what happened on Wednesday.

Buckle up!

Scoot

Jeff,
I thought the Open House last night was great the first half, then I completely lost interest the second half. It was a little basic at first but was getting interesting during your presentation. I am not a TOS user so Tom's presentation did nothing for me right now. I think it would have been much better if the classes were given seperate. My .02.

AMLN

Debbie L

I’m feeling like the chant from The Bad News Bears, “Who’s going to win, THE BEARS! Who’s going to win, THE BEARS! Who’s going to win, THE BEARS!”

If this week has taught us anything, it is much too early to tell.

I'd like to nominate today as "F-bomb Friday". They are dropping like paris hiltons panties over here in my office. I loathe TSL. I sold so I am sure it should bounce right about here.

What does Eric always say:
FXY up = stocks down
FXE up = stocks up

What about when they are both up?

I guess we'll see.

Michelle

Good put plays:
KIM
TTEC
BRY
CNL
VCP
PSA (if it hits support and heads down today)
CME


TAP has been holding up well in this market. I bought some stock last week and it is up. A little resistance at 93.50, but a good solid play as of late.

Michelle

I read an article last night about self service and how that's becoming very popular but slowly (like at fast food restaurants and they're starting in the health industry). Anyway, they highlighted a company and they seem pretty decent. I have an obsession with technology. The company is in the Computer Services Industry.

NCR - It's right on a trendline. They just had earnings. And if you're into fundamentals... They've got a good Phase 1 score and They have a price pattern of 4. The rest of the Phase 2 score is about a B.

Michelle,
Thanks for that list. I like a couple of them a lot. One thing I noticed on BRY - it has some support at 36.50 that it having a tough time breaking (formed starting in late may). Thank you.

Frustrating....I wanted to buy puts on GS a couple o'days ago but the ivol was so high I opted instead for a bc spread. So instead of making ooogobs of money today I am making a paltry $50.

Had I bought the puts, hi ivol and all, I could have been out by the end of today with a nice profit.

I'm starting to think that selling premium is good if you're an intermediate or long term trader but for a swing trade where you can sell back the same vega you bought, it is not cost effective.

Comments?

SLB looks to be flagging
NOV is at a level of support as is the OIH (if it holds.)

Chris, Your PCU is almost at a diaganol support. Hope it holds for ya.

CMG still strong. I'd give it two or three more points since it busted through 100.

Good trading day, all.

Michelle

You're welcome, step.

Thanks, Liz. I'll check that one out later. Gonna take the kids for a walk before it gets stiffling hot outside.

Michelle

Wheres Raimo, Brett and C&C? I could use some comic relief.

WM has been my current short of choice.

James H.

Okay this is going to be a long list. I spent lots of time with my nose to the monitor last night.

Here we go... all Put plays...

AVB-better entry yesterday but looking for the stock to go back to previous low at 106.

BPO-moved up to resistance and is moving back down.

EGP-consolidating around 40/41

ESS-on radar

FCE.A-consolidating around 54.20

FPO-consolidating around 19.43

FRT-is retracing-keep on watch list
for when it heads back down

PNFP-consolidating

PSA-retracing-keep on watch list again.

JSDA-dropped to gap on earnings release.

OFC-retracing

OEH-at support

PSB-50 is a significant for this stock

REG-retracing

RGLD-just retraced to trendline as of this morning.

SPG-consolidating around 85-87

T.BPO-right at trendline

TCO-at trendline going down

TSU-messy triple top with no confirmed breakout. Trading between 34 & 39

I believe a lot are in the same industry so watch out for that.

liz

Wow, Liz,
You've been busy. I have more put plays in my portfolio than ever.
I think I am now diversified.
Have puts, couple of calls, some strong stock plays and half in cash. Who knows what today will bring.

Michelle

Somebody made a post yesterday or the day before about market manipulation being the reason for the bull push at the end of the day, also Jeff and Eric said it looked like short selling. Anyway, I studied the indices again last night. Anybody notice the $RUT? It is make up of a larger group of stocks. Look at that drop in the last few weeks.
Don't know what that means, but just thought I'd point it out.

Michelle

Michelle-

Today will bring... upward movement... no downward movement... no up... no down...

liz

Brett,
What industries are the strongest in a bear market? I would like to study those industries and see what I can see. I'll bet you know off the top of your head.

Michelle

As I said, I had my nose to the monitor last night. There was an article on IT under the Industry Groups tab that talked about Computer Storage. I don't remember the Industry symbol.

Anyway, even during this craziness it hasn't seemed to have affected these stocks very much. There are a few that are $5 and under that might make some very good stock plays for those that don't have a lot of capital to work with. Here's the list...

WDC
SNDK
IOM
QBAK
RMTR

These were the ones listed in the article. Some of them are right at support.

Okay, I think I'm done with ideas for the moment.

liz

Nice work Liz.

Michelle I am glad to see you are diversified.

This market is about as stable as Crispin Glover on Dexatrim!

Not that this means anything but the daily chart on the indexes seem to be setting up like those big early down days with the Bulls wearing down the Bears till they just throw up paws before the close and the market goes up!

Cheers,
ARTY

JEC seems llike a low risk entry right now.

FOMC meeting is next week.
Here's an article on it, with some guesses from the talking heads: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates/us-fedwatch/2007-08-02.html
Thanks for the list, Liz! I've been looking at AVB & will be getting in today. You've got some excellent picks, in both directions.
Happy Friday all!
:-) Pat

Regarding the homebuilders and real estate industries, I'm using some caution with them the next couple days. They've had a great run down, but I've noticed some heavy, surging buying the last couple days with significant hammer tails on many individual stocks in the industry (FRT, OFC, REG, TCO, CTX, BPO, LEN, KBH).

Again, I'd never presume to call a bottom, just thought I'd mention what I saw. I'm going to let that group maybe cool off and regroup for a few days and then re-evaluate.

As always, make your own conclusions. I'm a young trader and may be way off.

Any other opinions on this?

Hans

Michelle... Like you, I got stopped out of RIMM the other day around 211.~... Ouch - what a mistake. In retro spec, I was riding a lower IV option down and sold at the bottom. I'm kicking myself now!!
Please someone slap me.

I almost bought in again today when it tested 222 but options were expensive, so I passed.

GRMN had an OK entry point 96.25 but now I think it is going to bust through Par with a vengeance. I think it is going to catch RIMM soon.

Cheers,
ARTY

Michelle,

I was the one who brought up the topic of the price being driven by someone with a lot of money. The idea came from the large sell-off we had which had to have been done by institutions for it to have been that big. That lead me to think that they then had a lot of cash and when the S&P 500 got below its 200 SMA on Wednesday, they started buying. If this is true, then the big selling should be over. Only the charts will tell us if this is true or not. The one thing I see on pretty much all of the indices is a "rounding" at the bottom and now they are channeling sideways. I am watching for a breakout before really investing anything other than small, short-term positions.

Scoot

Step, I like the setup and entry point on BBD. Just don't like earnings in tomorrow. I've got strict rules I have to follow about that. I'll look at it again after.

Arty, really wish I was in GRMN. I've missed it every time. Dang I wish I had a piece of that.

Now for my first ever public stock "picks"....

CHD and FIC.

Found them using an insider buying search I built and both are forming promising patterns. Opinions?

Hans

Another lesson I learned - look at the SPX on the prophet charts and select "All" for your time frame. You will notice that the candle for May is where we hit the resistance from back in 2000. The candles in June and July were not able to break through this area either. Then if you look at a 1 year chart, you see the uptrend was fine through May. Then in June and July look at how it struggled. I for one will be keeping my eyes on the bigger picture from now on. I would bet the institutional guys do.

I am also watching to see if we break above that resistance or out of that beautiful channel on the "All" chart.

Scoot

Thanks for everyone blogging. I am trying to keep up, but with so many it is hard.

Just on CNBC they announced many of the mortgage companies are raising their rates for home buyers, some as much as 8%. Thinking out loud - this is only going cause homes to stay on the market longer and prolong the houseing problem. People can't afford these rates, not to mention before, so my question is what are the best put plays to go into.

Thanks to liz for the put list. I am looking over that now, but I notice many of these are property management companies. I think they will get hit by this problem, but I am also looking to expand on what other companies will get hit and would like to play on it. Any suggesttions as I am researching what to play?

Thanks
Christine NY

Hans-

CHD- it looks like it's been trading inside a $2 range since about May. It needs to go above 50.37ish/50.40 (a very strong resistance line) with pretty significant volume to go above the gap that it's been staying below.

FIC-Hmmm. I personally don't like the set up of the chart. I think that there are easier set ups.

But hey, these are just my opinions.

liz

BNI, look out below.

DRYS is rumbling. I hear the ground shaking.

SRE, find me a better retest.

And with that, I'm off to get a burrito.

Hans,
FIC looks like a big 'ole triangle which right at resistance which could go either way but my guess is down before up.

Here's a whacky idea: How about some METH to go with the PCP and POT? (hope there are no fed lurkers around) Seriously, it's sitting at support and is cheap, optionable and has decent fundamentals.

Liz - good list. I like AVB now. On your other idea, WDC is a great company with a good story, earnings behind them and reasonable options. Thanks for reminding me about it!

logan...whatever you do...don't quit your day job

Anonymous,
That was kinda mean.


Michelle

Anon-

We all love to poke at each other but it's always a good time. No one tries to be mean on purpose. We're here to learn.

Go away energy vampires. You're not needed here.

liz

Hello all,

I am bear hunting up at stone mountain right now and only have intermittent sattelite connection for my PC here.

But I am out bear hunting....

And Rogue hunting too....

Did anyone catch Cramers plug on CME last night?

Is anyone paying attention to CME today!!

$560 is my new support area...$600 to be taken out....

Brett, can you send me a Philly Cheese via messenger please..

Have a great weekend after a GREAT week of trading (not sure I'll be able to get back on later)..

Oh, and whack a Rogue...new game at your local arcade!

Raimo,
It's good to hear from you. As long as you don't shoot my bears, that's okay. And if CME would just dip down for a few minutes, I'll take my profits on my put and move on. Hey, isn't he the one that was telling everyone to buy GOOG? I think he is trying to unload some of his stock (laughter.)
We'll see ya soon.

Michelle

I meant Cramer on the GOOG comment.

Does anyone else see a C&H on STX? $5 target (20%)?

Scoot

Maybe lighten up on CTRP at the close. Earnings Monday.

Maybe CTRP should lighten up on the viagra.

Raimo must have shot a bear or two....

Scoot

Google needs a stick of dynamite up its butt! It's just sitting there.Up 2. Down 2. Up 2. Down 2.

clean cups

sue

Where is CTRP going on Viagra ?

new thread...

aka clean cups

as sue stated.

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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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