Dow 14,000 or 12,000?
Who gives a $hit at this point. I think the market is infested with morons. Mostly because they don't know which way the market is going either.
I'm reading a few headlines regarding M& A activity. Wow. I must have taken the last years worth of M&A fueled rallies for granted being that I was so caught off guard. US Steel, Gateway, Chicago Bridge & Iron all inking deals this morning. Despite all the supply getting taken out of the market, we're still heading lower.
While all this madness has been going on around me, I am just now noticing China stocks hitting new highs. Unreal. That was pretty quick, don't you think? I'm okay with shorting the US and going long China at the moment, but let's see how I feel after lunch. Take a look at the FXI today.I also like the triangle setting up in KLAC. I can't imagine this one taking much longer to break out.
It looks like my game plan will stay the same this week. I am keeping an eye on materials, water transports, China, Bob Pasani, high volume breakouts and Monster Java. For those that haven't tried this drink yet, I can't explain how amazing it is. Experience it for yourself.
It's been fun, but it's time for me to go back to my equity research department and make some noise. We'll get a watchlist out there soon enough.
Recommendation: It's going to be a great week, I can tell.
Long: Profits
Short: Losses
I got a feeling the Bears are going to finally come out of the woods this week. What's the best way to short stocks with higher Volatility?
Do you focus on buying Puts or doing vertical spreads? I can't sell naked calls in my account.
Thanks,
Dr. Tony
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 08:58:00 AM
I'm expecting a down week as well.
Got into shorts on ATI, ICE, and KLAC
Still holding shorts on C, GGP
Holding longs on ROG, CAM, JEC
Tough week last week. Looking forward to lots of volatility this week!
thanks
strat
Posted by Strat | 8/27/2007 09:28:00 AM
Jeff - love the video. That's a turn it up and sing it loud in the car kind of song! I'm gonna go get my ten gallon hat now....
Strat - are you really shorting KLAC? Just wondering why you're going against such a strong long term trend. Respectfully asked, of course.
Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 8/27/2007 09:36:00 AM
Doji Girl and Lori,
Thanks, I have been trying to explain it with "cup and Handle" charting on the indexes. Made no sense at all.
Diana
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 09:50:00 AM
I forgot LOL
Diana
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 09:51:00 AM
Jeff,
Love Bon Jovi. It's nice to see you get frustrated with what the market is gonna do, too.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 10:20:00 AM
Jeff,
ONXX, unless I'm measuring it wrong, it looks like it is projected to move 6.5 points. It is up almost $4 now. Hasn't it made most of its move? What say you?
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 10:23:00 AM
LFC - anyone in this one? Congrats!
kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 8/27/2007 10:23:00 AM
DRYS
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 10:29:00 AM
Lori you have mail.
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 10:38:00 AM
Dr. Tony,
If you have good directional plays, ones that you think will make larger price moves, continue to buy puts, just be selective with the options you choose.
If you don't expect any large price moves, sell bear call spreads.
Michelle,
At the time of the post, ONXX was up only $2. At anytime you feel a stock has moved too much, apply your discretion.
Posted by Option Addict | 8/27/2007 11:00:00 AM
Keep an eye on BIDU, better late than never...
Posted by Option Addict | 8/27/2007 11:09:00 AM
Jeff-
I've been looking at this one all morning. How are you looking at this one? To break above previous high or as a bounce?
Thanks.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 8/27/2007 11:16:00 AM
Jeff-
I was looking at this one as a break above previous high....
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 8/27/2007 11:17:00 AM
Jeff,
Yeah, it is too late for me to get in. I think what I was checking with you is if I measured it correctly. If a stock is targeted to move 6.5 and has already moved 4, I won't enter. But if I have measured the cup and handle target incorrectly, then it could change. I have only attended your price patterns class once, so don't have it down yet, and am still planning on buying the price patterns book Brett recommended once August ends and our budget numbers change. Thanks for the input.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 11:24:00 AM
Kim,,
Yes yes yes...
been in LFC, PTR and ACH for a while now....love China....
Posted by Raimo | 8/27/2007 11:31:00 AM
Anybody concerned that the $RUT can't seem to break through 800?
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 11:33:00 AM
Michelle,
Yes, your measurement is pretty close, 6-7ish.
Liz, Grant,
BIDU has some nice resistance over head, and China is being bought across the board today. Most China stocks broke out today.
Posted by Option Addict | 8/27/2007 11:37:00 AM
CEDC....sym triangle
DRS....may start to turn back down
EQR...turning dwn
GAP....sym triangle
GMCR .....sym triangle
KRC...turning dwn
looks like alot of things are rallied back up to resistance.....the do or die point...wonder what will happen....
Posted by Tonya W | 8/27/2007 11:38:00 AM
oh one more before this cheap A$$ battery dies in this lap top !!
SII....sym triangle
i am short patience with laptops !!!
Posted by Tonya W | 8/27/2007 11:43:00 AM
Jeff-
Thanks for the feedback!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 8/27/2007 11:52:00 AM
Thanks, Jeff.
I planning on listening to your class tomorrow (after hours).
I'll get there.
Wish this market would decide one way or the other. I feel like I'm playing dodge ball trying to figure out which way it's going to hit.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 12:02:00 PM
GMCR has now turned into a symm triangle with a 13 point move - no?
Posted by Jodi | 8/27/2007 12:19:00 PM
Oh, Tonya already said.... here I was thinking I was sooo smart. Silly blonde girl I am!
Posted by Jodi | 8/27/2007 12:24:00 PM
GMCR looks like it is ready to perculate...
Posted by Raimo | 8/27/2007 12:27:00 PM
Still trying to catch up with the posts as this weekend and half of Friday took off with the family. The last weekend before school and first kid in high school...yes, I old now!
Mostly in cash still but looking for trades to get back in the game, thanks Jeff for your posts and watch list.
Oh and I like that GMCR too (perculate!).
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 8/27/2007 12:29:00 PM
GMCR
I see the triangle pattern. But which way? Up or down?
Matt
Posted by Matt | 8/27/2007 12:39:00 PM
Matt
On a symm triangle you don't know which way it will go until it confirms (breaks out of the pattern with more than average volume) so long as it confirms, it will move in whichever direction it breaks. I myself, am predicting a move to the upside because of the previous flag pattern - but you don't know for sure until it makes it's move :o)
Posted by Jodi | 8/27/2007 12:43:00 PM
Has anyone else noticed that volume across the board in the last week or so has been steadily declining and way below average? Is this an indication of more traders sitting on the sidelines and if so, what are the implications? Is this a good/bad sign? How has this affected your trading decisions since many are based on volume?
Thoughts?
Matt
Posted by Matt | 8/27/2007 12:48:00 PM
It looks as though GMCR is wound up tighter than Joan Rivers before the Academy Awards. But the spreads?? What about the spreads?
ARTY
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 8/27/2007 12:53:00 PM
TNH sitting at diagonal and horizontal resistance. Target 70, exit on close above 95?
Peter V
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 12:55:00 PM
Arty.... that was poetic!! Speaking of poems.....where have they gone? I could use a giggle today.
Posted by Jodi | 8/27/2007 12:58:00 PM
Low volume = scared traders.
The market is waiting....
Arty,
You gotta go with stock on this one. The original reco on this was before it was optionable, and the newly formed options here suck.
Posted by Option Addict | 8/27/2007 01:02:00 PM
Financial seems like they are ready to keel over. Look at GS, LEH etc
Posted by mahmood | 8/27/2007 01:05:00 PM
DRYS is breaking out with volume. However, I can't determine a target. The average 1 yr bounce above the 30 dma is 5.06, but the current price is already above this. This means that I cannot buy OTM but what about ITM? Any thoughts?
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 01:17:00 PM
DRYS - Imo, the time to buy that was last week. Too far from REE for my rules.
Posted by Doji Girl | 8/27/2007 01:25:00 PM
Judy, for DRYS you can draw a channel from about 50 to 64 and hence have a price target of 14 i-e 78
The stop should be just below the breakout point (or whatever you feel comfortable with)
Posted by mahmood | 8/27/2007 01:25:00 PM
Thanks for the input on DRYS. I called the hotline after I posted and they suggested using the range that you mentioned, Mahmood, for a target.
As for REE, I use the resistance that the break out went through for my new support and exit, so I am now sitting right on it.
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 01:41:00 PM
Clean cups
Posted by Ladd | 8/27/2007 01:45:00 PM
There are a lot of positions bullish and bearish sitting at REE.
Which way to go? Decisions, decisions.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 8/27/2007 01:47:00 PM
Please define "REE". That's a new acronym for me.
Posted by Matt | 8/27/2007 01:56:00 PM