wow....I think this is the first time I am the first comment on a thread...I...I feel honored.

RTI....whooosh.

so nervous I forgot to sign...

Jamie

CAT broke neckline on H&S. That is pretty significant since DE had good earnings and is up, like, $8.

M

RTI

I have it looking a long way day down before it finds any support.

a) Agree
b) Disagree

Cheers,
ARTY

Thanks Jeff for the new bullish ideas. My puts are overflowing and do not want to be soley in one direction( although doing very well in them!) I wish I were also going to Chicago with you all, hopefully soon I will have enough profit to join you at some other conference!
Everyone be safe, learn lots and have FUN!
KELLY

The IPO of the year is on its way to 100.

VW Ware - VWM

ARTY

Arty-


RTI

You have to go to a 2yr chart to find anything that resembles support (around 60 and 55). But I don't know what kind of memory traders have that far back and if it has any bearing today.

Glad I got the RSS Feed....I see your post closer to the time you post it...MOST of all I click over to your feed as I find it MUCH easier on the eyes than your black backround. Sign of my age, I guess.

I had the volume turned on briefly this morning on CNBC and one of the commentators made an interesting point.

A lot of the carry trade in the Yen is invested in materials stocks, such as RTI, PCU, FCX, X, etc. As the yen continues higher (up again big today) and those investors are forced to liquidate and pay back their loans, these stocks (regardless of fundamentals) are likely to continue lower.

Then CNBC returned to their usual dribble and I was forced to mute them.

In other words, I like the RTI set up.

Thanks Arty.

Joel R.

I like RTI also.
I also respectfully offer up CBEY as an "at the exit" (tm-raimo)bulish entry. I see 35 as solid support and it has decent fundamentals.

Welcome Victoria!

SFLY - at support
VMC - breaking 5 yr support
FAST - at support

Check em.

MikeH

Anybody looking at IACI? Struggling to get above long term resistance at 28? Sitting at the exit. Volume dying off on the recent moves upward. Thoughts?

CROX is still at a good REE.

(Raimo Entry Exit)

PG...looks like a low risk and entry. Bouncing off support and cheap options.

Jamie

Jamie,

I like PG..thanks..had it on my list, but somtimes they are easy to lose!!

Nice entry here...

anyone have a bullish hurricane trade?

My tattered and torn account has very few bullish plays remaining in it but as far as new ones, ATW could be promising if it gets a push to the upside. I was looking for a support bounce yesterday or today but it's not cooperating. Bearish plays are saving my rear!
Stan

Hi Addicts,

I have a thought for looking to build confidence on calling how price patterns react. Look for formations on 1 day/1min charts. for me it lets me calculate and "predict"/ form and opinon as to what will happen without having to wait days on the outcome. If anyone tries this or is doing this let me know how it is working out for you.

Happy trading to all,

Dan

BOOM offering good REE

Raimo,

I liked your multiple choice test for Arty..I think it was for Arty who exited GOO?!?! anyway...
I applied the test to a position I am in. What are your thoughts if the answer is C---my entry was bad.
I entered KIM on 8/3 where I found short term resistance. After evaluating longer term charts (via your suggestion), I realized it was a terrible entry. I allowed the stock to retest resistance near the 42.50 area and it has now come back down to breakeven. If I were to have entered this trade correctly the first time, I would not be questioning myself. I think part of me is just happy that it recovered its loss. So, back to the original question, what say you if I answer C?

CROX is stepping all over my exit...
Amy

Wow anybody watching FLR this afternoon. I will be closing at the end of the day if under 121 or if it breaks $117.25 again. Just got off of a plane and saw the big hit it took.... WOW

Tom D

CROX

I had REE at 50.30 .. and it has gone under that at this writing .. It's of interest here but I need to see bullish volume to confirm - not bearish as it is right now at 2:30P central ....

CROX has about 10 minutes to get its butt back over 49.50 or its toast.

I know this is off subject but for those of you looking to buy books on trading, you should look at "half.com" which is an ebay store. I order my kids textbooks through this website and noticed you can get many of the suggested readings on trading for a fraction of the cost.

I just returned from a shopping trip at WMT and the store was compleatly deserted, is that really weird or telling us something.

Attwood

Dan

That is a great way to test out a lot of price patterns and what you think will happen. The 1 minute chart allows you to do so much more charting/building confidence in your ability to read charts etc. I have been doing the same and slowly building my confidence. You then carry it over to the longer term chart and your skills will carry you though. Good luck and best of trading.

Hurricane thoughts: COP, NOV, SLB

Jeff, no matter where we have the meeting I still think we should get together for a little howling in the big city of Chicago!

Christine

I pulled out of GOOG during this final hour ... my line at purchase on 7/30 was $502 and I'm out ... I left it with a loss at $501.90 ....

I see a H&S there .. don't want to but I do and that target down on my screen shows a 48 point drop. Not a risk I am willing to take in this way up then way down market ..

Anyone else having problems with Prophet charts lagging a couple of minutes?

CROX - gee, we hardly knew ya....buhbye!

Good riddance to GRMN (stupid entry) and CAM. How do we stopped getting burned on our call plays without leaving our necks out with only put plays?

Kim

Raimo please don't shoot.

Nice entry on GOOG for some puts!

Cheers,
ARTY

I just got into some CROX, using the 7/10-7/12 candles as my entry/exit point.

Kim

Thank GOD for the bell...

Arty, i hear ya on GOOG...

I too exited CROX. I see Kim's entry as possibly being another great opportunity. It fell through my exit, so I will have to reenter later.

ARTY
I'm with you and your earlier settement, I've been crushed the last2 weeks, I must re-evaluate. my puts hardly moved,all my calls killed me, I'm out man down and out.

xle,sndk,nov,jec,crox all bite me hard today

Kim
The thing that has worked for me is to reduce my market exposure - smaller size and number of positions as well as owning each position less time. I have also started going a couple of strikes ITM and adding more time so that my positions are less volatile. I just can't find that many bullish entries so I am down to 3 puts and 1 call.

Hope that helps.

Boy GS stinks. Can't believe it was killed again today. What I lost on FLR

I made on GS... Whew

Tom D

I looked to add a Russel Put as bounced off of resistance at 775 as it headed down.

Those puts are like real estate on 5th ave. Are you kidding me?

Cheers,
ARTY

I agree with you Scoot on the smaller position size. I did definitely overtrade yesterday on things that I wasn't 100% convinced of which is not only eating at me from a money perspective but also from a trader mindset perspective. I knew better but I traded anyway.

Anyone want to beat your head against the wall along with me? You can join me as I knock some sense into myself.

Kim

Kim

Amen to that "Thank GOD for the bell". It really couldn't come quickly enough for me. What a horrible week. I fought back from 26% down 2 weeks ago and was up 16% at the start of this week. I was thrilled for like a day.

I cannot even begin to tell you how much I wanted to yank all money from the market and sit out for a month or so until all this craziness stopped.

I cannot tell you why I did the opposite and plunged in with both feet. Greed? Overconfidence? Whatever the reason, it didn't take long - 3 days later and ... All gains gone, losses greater than before. UGLY week. Oh well back to the drawing board.

Lets hope 12750ish is the magic number the hungry market is looking for. I've had all the beating I need for awhile. I've been down and up so much over the past month or so, the only encouraging thing is that I actually have come back from every loss so far. The scariest part is, every time seems to be a bigger loss I am coming back from. Either I'm getting braver, or something, but I definitely need to get better with entries and especially exits because these huge swings are killing me. I know I'm not supposed to watch my day to day account balance but when its down almost 35-40% in less than a week sheesh, its hard not to eyeball that number a bit.

I've used more puts than usual for me (which still isn't enough) but I've even thought about going straight puts a couple times, but as soon as I did...

So, I'll reconsider positions, recheck support/resistance, and realize that it was a pretty ugly week all the way around. What an ugly chart on the DJX, with too many call options even with good options which I was pretty sure I had, I was likely to have a bad week. Here's to next week ... cheers.

James H.

Anybody looked at the $VIX? Up $2.99 today to 30.67 .. March 30, 2003 was the last time it was there ...

And the CAST favorite - FXY - 85.61 .. within a buck of the high back on March 5 ... Eric and Jeff have been RIGHT ON with that as an indicator ... Thanks guys!

Please pass the Village Idiot sign.

I was in an APPL spread and doing very badly. I got out of one leg and was down $135. I wasn't terribly upset because it has been trending down.

Went to the store.

Came home from the store.

Not only was I up the $135, but an additional $15. Now, $15 is small potatoes but I have been down for so long that the $15 seemed huge.

I go in the shower.

I get out of the shower.

Now. Now. NOW I am down the $15 AND the $135 and I was only in the shower for 10 minutes. ARGH!!!

I panicked and I sold it for $6.50. Right now the September 125 put is $8.90!!

I.Am.So.Stoopid!

I am more aggrevated that I broke my own rule of trading at the close.

ARTY, can you lead *my* group hug now?

Anyone heard if Jeff is doing MasterTalk tonight?

James H.

Well,

The markets are at about a 10% pullback.

This is going to an intersting time the next few days...

Just go with the flow baby....

Laney,
That is why I rarely shower. It just causes problems.

Consider the group hug stared.

I am in a position today to give rather than receive.

I hope many of you are holding KBH puts. I saw the CEO's Mug on CNBC explaining things. You know what that means. Is is headed for zero.

Cheers,
ARTY

Wow,

I got back from vacation on Monday and I had put myself in all cash prior to leaving. I have been sitting on the sidelines very bored and not diving in because I am golfing twice this week and can not monitor any new trades well. After reading the last 20 posts, I think I will stay in cash for the rest of the week and maybe paper trade until the dust settles. Not nearly as exciting but I can still learn and catch up on some reading.
Good luck to all. To those going to Chicago, have a great time and I wish I could be there.
Jeff, again, thanks!

Arty,
Instead of Russell expensive puts, try IWM. Very manageable. I'm still in mine from last week and its the best thing in my portfolio now.

Second best thing is the KBH puts.

Re VIX being so high...if it stays anywhere near this high tomorrow I will look to sell Sept. spreads now rather than wait until next week after August expires as I usually do.

Hmmmm PX has been an interesting trade - I liked the entry point yesterday, jumped in before close - last night (or trading day for you guys) I went fishing - drank a few becks, didnt bother to check my stocks last night. This morning wake up to see the bastard has TANKED $4, destroyed that trendline and now im in a trade that has 60% of the value gone in 1 day! Yeeeehaw! hehehe.. no my question to you is - usually i'd cut it here - however usually i wouldnt let the trade get to this value if a line is breached!!!

So what would you do?

Options are Oct 80 calls (now far out of the money)

a) Close out the trade, good riddence!

B) Turn into a calender spread to eat back some loss until this puppy wakes up again

c) see if it retraces and act accordingly

d) Go long baby! Lots and lots of time this should crawl back (as long as it doesnt keep tanking hahaha)

So yeh, interested in everyones answers!

(my own action is going to be to see what happens tonight - if it retraces i'll hold, if not probably calander for 1 month then re-assess)

******Village becomes City, Idiot still missing**********

I was out today at my daughter's riding competition. She did really well... thanks for asking. My account was up $35. My RRSP down big time, considering I only have 2 stocks on the go. AAPL and POT. Big losers.

liz... WMT spread was 45/50 and this guy had made a bajillion dollars off it over the last year. I have to call him and see where he's at now.

ARTY... sorry to hear about the showering issue. You're not married, are you?

Laney, welcome to the Village. We've all done it but the good news is that the Exit door is always open. It's really easy to get out. Even easier to get back in.

DRYS, CROX and FXI... I should be out of all of these, but I didn't have stops on them because they always get taken out in this volatility. Tomorrow I'm off to Newfoundland and I will have to get out... unless they rebound. All puts did well today. Glad I couldn't even see the rollercoaster all day.

Must get the dirt out from my teeth before I take Catherine to dinner. Hmmmm hot dogs, or hamburgers?

big lesson to be learned here:

Jeff's been saying this for days. Don't fight the market. The only reason I lost money Monday and Tuesday is because I stupidly tried to buy a few dips.

Is it a correction or a bear market? Does it matter? Think of the money lost the last week by not following the market tide. It's okay to close positions and get back in. Paper losses can always get bigger. Take the easy pitches. Be the ball, danny.

If you lost money today it's because you ignored everything the market was telling you and probably listened to what bubblevision was saying about this just being temporary and no big deal.

I was guilty of it too, but yesterday I had enough.

I am really torn whether I should post this or not but if it helps just one person, then it will be worth it.

Today as well as this week has been good to me. Last week sucked but I stopped, looked at what I was doing wrong (there were a few things) and then I made some adjustments. I have really tightened up on my entries (think REE), gotten really picky about what I am buying (specifically, I look for small spreads, good OI, low IV and lots of intrinsic value) and I am thinking defense, defense. These trades are fairly hard to find and most of them don't move very fast but some do. It is boring but it is making money - for now.

I am also reading Options as a Strategic Investment (On Jeff's reading list) and it has made me think of buying and selling options differently. I highly recommend it.

Aussie Pete,

I vote for a) close out the trade and good riddance.
You will feel better having a loser off your books and will not fall in the trap of chasing a bad trade. You can always buy back in if it rebounds.

Brett,

as always- sage like words!

Its funny how i forgot what at overall market has been doing when assessing PX, aww well - the market teaches lessons hard and fast!

tonight i scrap and look elsewhere!

Sean - cheers! Prehaps the best course of action!

Aussie Pete,

No worries mate!......SORRY, I couldn't help myself.

I apologize to anyone long FSLR. I know it is my fault that it has dropped so fast, so far, I am the cause since I sold 1 put, 1 stinkin put. I didn't realize I had so much clout! Anyway, to buy back or buy the shares come Friday, that is the qusetion.

Blog on!

You guys never told me that the Phantom was a golfer?

Did he used to work in a lumber yard?

Cheers,
Anonymous

DJ,
As always you are reading my mind. I have IWM and KBH as well. Believe it or not they are not the best thing in my portfolio right now. CFC and MTH which is setting up to break through 5 Year support.

I just like day trading the $RUT because of the swings. It is kinda like winning a no limit game when I am on.

Thanks ARTY

He-he, you're funny Arty! Wasn't it you who posted about wearing Coach shoes? For all us fashionistas, it's an abomination to not shower and wear Coach!:-)

Chris, Like I said, breaking my own rule is what really made me angry. I know better! It's that darn ShadowTrader with all of his "HEADS UP!" yells. I love him and I loathe him at the same time.

P.S. CROX strikes again, it got me. But, I got KBH, LEN, BTU and CAT! MWhahahaha

VMI, CVD, POT, BOOM are bullish plays with the REE (Raimo entry/exit).

Jeff's price pattern class had two head and shoulders that made a move and still have lots to go: GOOG, ICE, XOM (not broken neck yet.)

Just some ideas for bullish and bearish because it's anybody's guess what the market does tomorrow.

M

hi...did a 460/480 credit vertical spread on goog last friday...invested $500.00..return will $1150..not bad for a weeks work

desmond

And CAT.

I like you Betty,

You gave me those unbelievable words of encouragement while you were getting killed yourself? I appreciate it.

So Betty, I mean Brett, I'm going to give you a little advice.

There's a force in the universe that makes things happen. And all you have to do is get in touch with it, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

How many times do I have to tell you.

Short KFN

Cheers,
Ty Webb

I mostly shower before I dress in Coach.

I rarely shower before before I wear my Crocs. I can't find a purse to match.

I never shower before I wear my Birkenstocks because I do not think I am supposed to.

By the way, Cramer is in the other room on the TV yelling about how GRMN is the best buy in the history of the market. I think he is gong to blow a blood vessel.

$20 bucks says it goes up tomorrow.

Any takers?

Cheers,
ARTY

arty-

I don't remember saying I got killed.

Arty,

I am not taking that bet. I am sure GRMN will get at least a short lived pop.

As for your sartorial comments, you may not want to go rattlesnake hunting with Raimo in crocks and a matching purse! I think the birkenstocks and no shower will be enough to ward off the snakes and hopefully, Raimo.

Brett,
I apologize for a slight overstating adjective "killed". It was part of my sub referencing humor that sometimes gets lost by virtue of my own attention deficit. I really was thankful you were helping me while you were managing your risk.

Sean, I am only thinking the Cramer effect for GRMN. Also I noticed you commented on my footwear and not to my subtle identification as you being the Phantom?

Please do tell.

Cheers,
ARTY

Arty,

I did see the reference to the Phantom being a golfer, which I am, but did not understand the comment about the lumber yard.

By the way, C2 is a golfer also, although I think he hits balls off the luggage deck while in flight.

Arty, I would be interested in how you are day trading the $RUT. I may have some time tomorrow and Friday to paper trade it. I have been doing it on the SPY. Do you use options or the stock?

Oh and I was wondering what that smell was with the last group hug, no showers huh?

Hi fellow addicts,

Would any of you consider CME to be a double top if it closes decidedly below ~$531 even though the 2 tops are not equal?

I'm not sure I have the stomach for it, but just wondering how you all see it.

Thanks!

Bob and Pam,
First of all I have learned that day trading the $RUT you absolutely can not leave the screen. It will make huge moves in literal seconds.

I am also not qualified in any way to be giving anybody advice on what to do. As I have told Jeff. I am the Kurt Rambis of trading. I can get around but I am not going to get the big shoe deal.

That being said, this is what I have done. This may or may not be the way day traders do it, I just don't know.

I draw support and resistance lines on the daily charts and extend them into the next and previous days. Instead of breakouts or bounces occurring in hours or days they occur in minutes. I set tight stops as soon as I trade and hang on.

I have been trading the options but that was when they were semi-affordable. I needed the leverage. I couldn't do it otherwise.

I was going to make an attempt today 3 times but I would have been stopped out on all occasions.

My opinion is paper trade it for a while till you find you rhythm.

.02 ARTY

Anybody want to venture a guess as to what happens tomorrow? Looks like the NASDAQ and the S&P are close to a support level, but not the DOW. Is it time to bounce before heading down again?


Michelle

My guess is this: Based on the fact the selling was nasty at the end of the day and the futures are down as I type this, it will start off down. At some point, when we least expect it, maybe tomorrow, maybe not til next week after expiration, the fed will come in with a surprise rate cut at which point all the shorts will be scrambling to cover. The nimblest and quickest to the doors will win. When the buying begins to slow down, that will be the time to get back in to all the short plays for the next ride down.

At least that's my plan.

OK Michelle I've nailed it down. I don't know. But I have been really good at guessing the opposite several times in the last week or so. Maybe I should see what my gut tells me and guess the other way. Nope no guess here.

One thing of which I am pretty certain. The Phantom Poet in evading my questioning.

Cheers,
ARTY

Hi everyone…. I work during the day. I can catch the action but not too often without getting into trouble. With all this volatility, I haven’t been trading. Just too fearful to take the risk since I’m not able to keep a close eye on things. Can anyone recommend a strategy for this market when you can’t stay close to the screen… or is it best to just stay in cash?
I feel discouraged that I was getting “it” at the end of the bull market and then the market went into the wash cycle.

Calvin

Raimo, I see you have enlisted Arty
In the "Discover the Phantom Party",


I am upset you have accused Sean M.
of being the witty, handsome Phant-M,

I am my own man, I don't wear Crox
I like to wear sandals with big white socks,

and my glasses, they have a white patch
between the lenses, I am quite a catch,

but I can not hold a Harami
to the guy with the big salami,

his name is Arty, Raimo likes his bulges
but neither of them ever truly divulges,

their desire to expose one so poetic
who is the one who is truly prophetic,

Soooooo, I rest my body that is so weary
to rise once again as........PP.

OK, I am not even playing this game, but I could not help myself this time. If memory serves me correctly, it was Chris who was lingering with his white body on the beach armored with white socks, sandals, and his speedo... or wait... was it his OA thong?? Could Chris be the PP after all?
Hmmmmmmmmmm....

Debbie-
In my opinion: I would say yes to a double top on CME but I would say if it breaks below 539/538. Pretty much right where it is at the end of today (8/15). Your low happened 7/27 at around 539. You'll see a little spike in volume right there. So, wait for confirmation of a break below with volume. Hope this helps.

liz

Calvin-
How about trying some spread trades during this wild ride?

liz

Anon-
Chris did come to California and decided to wear white socks with his sandals. And I do believe he told us that he made it worse by wearing a speedo. Bob and I warned him that it wasn't the best thing to do here in southern California but he didn't listen. So, maybe you're on the right track...

liz

liz, thanks for the confirmation.

Ok, it seems that I should have a stop in place for my puts in case the market decides it wants to snatch away some new profits. I am usually near the computer, so I have only used mental stops. How do you use mechanical stops using TOS? Thanks for you "techies" that have all this figured out!
Kelly

Sorry, the kids are watching a chick flick and I am bored so here it goes again:

Arty, your voice it is so muffled
like Edith when Archie got her ruffled,

but I am not here to silence your voice
I just want you to have a good choice,

between who you and Raimo think is the PP
because we are not so different, you and me,

except I don't wear Birkenstock's and flowers
and, oh yea, I take frequent showers,

I do try to follow the creedo
when in So. Cal., don't wear a speedo,

I think you wear one and pose for a picture
of yourself, alone in the mirror,

with your purse in one hand that matches your crocks
and an itty bitty thong with stripes like your socks,

and when you're convinced you look quite stunning
along comes Raimo and he is running,

to bring you a tiara that is an exact match
to your crocks and, oh yea, he thinks you're a catch,

your tiara, it glimmers, oh what a sheen
Raimo is yours tonight, he is your Queen!!

PP

Michelle,

I respectfully disagree with you. The DOW is very close to a support area.

We are down on the DOW 8%. A 10% correction is 12,600. We may or may not get there. There is some level of support at 12,750 both horizontally and diag. We are about 100 pts away from it. We may hit that today then run back up. We may not. Sending you a chart.

For the record, I am bullish on the market, but playing it both ways. Short term yes I have running with the bears and taking there money, but I am in disguise and soon the bear costume comes off and the bull will run once again...

And if not, I'll just keep playing with the bears.

Okay PP,

I see you are back in full force.

Though you came to my defense (thanks pal), it is time...yes, you will be poemed in the next 24 hours.

Brett,

Enough of this. It is time that me and you put our balls together (our crystal ones buddy), and crank this market. $$ is what it is all about regardless if it is with the bulls or the bears.

Get a burrito today pal, I'll get a philly cheesesteak.

Hey guys,
I need to leave about 10 minutes after the opening this morning and I want to put a trailing stop in my IWM puts in case something whacky happens before I can get back at about noon. Any advice on how to do that on TOS? I see the trailing stop feature on the trade screen but I don't know how to set it nor what to set it to so I don't get kicked out by mistake.

On the other hand, how much damage could the anemic bulls cause in 2 hours?

Any ideas or advice?

Any consensus on GOOG since it broke $500 it's going down to $450 ?

Kelly--

To set your stop order on TOS:

After you have put your buy order up on the screen, click on the 'advanced order' drop down, hit '1st triggers all'. Go to bid price and click on it, put in 'Market' and click on 'Day' to open the box. Do GTC, click the symbol box and it will fill in the ticker. Under method click 'trades twice'( so you don't get knocked out by one buyer picking you off) and under trigger set 'at or below' or 'at or above'. Then put in your stop amount at the stock price. Then you're ready to click 'okay'.

This is how I do it so
you will probably want to go to the help tab and get the narrated walk through.

--Patti

Raimo,
I don't think you are disagreeing at all. I didn't clarify. I see support coming up at 12,750, but that is still down some. I think the market may head down and bounce either today or tomorrow.
Like Eric said, we have to all be aware that whent he Fed steps in, which I think they will, the market is going to shoot higher and we had better be ready to exit our bear trades fast. Thanks all for your opinions.
DG,
Yep, I see that, too.

Debbie,
I saw the double top on CME yesterday, but haven't studied double tops enough to know if that truly is one. Brett and Raimo or Jeff will have to give analysis.

Michelle

Patti,
Thanks, I am going to go and try to set it up now. I called TOS last week for help and unfortunately they weren't helpful. Thanks for your time!

Kelly

Market Watch headlines says:
"Fed's Poole says no need for emergency rate cut." So I guess it won't happen today. Maybe they need another tanker day in the market before they take action.



Michelle

Eric also said that if they do step in with an emergency rate cut, that the rally may be very short lived. Referred us back to Jan. 3, 2001 when it last happened. Had a huge rally for a day, but then the Dow ended up dropping a few thousand points.....

Could I ask a favor?

Everyone please buy NOV and push it up above 110 by tomorrow. My spread thanks you in advance.

Sincerely,

Rd

Patti,
Thanks but that's not the info I was seeking. I know how to place the trades twice orders. I want to place a trailing stop which seems to default to .10 . I don't think that is what I want and I'm not sure what is realistic, especially for the first half hour. Also, I'm not sure if the .10 refers to the option or the underlying.

Patti, sorry. Thought you were talking to me, not Kelly.

RD, I'm with you on that. I've got a 105/100 spread going which 2 days ago seemed like a sure thing. I could have bought it back for .05 and been done with it but I figured it could never fall 13 points in 3 days. Ooops!

DG,
There is a narrated walk through under the help tab for trailing stops. That will probably help you. The default is .10, but you can change it. Also, I do believe it is set with the price of the option if that is what you are trading. I've never used them so I hesitate to give you any specifics....

FED just threw more money into the system ... Financials are rebounding - albeit maybe briefly ...

Just FYI ....

Oh chartists of the Blog. Can the head of the head and shoulders be be smaller than the shoulders.

DRYS??????

ARTY

Take a look at the FXY. It has the biggest GAP I have seen yet.

Does this mean big down moves if this is a true leading indicator?

ARTY

Thanks Arty, sounds like what I have been doing (paper) with the SPY. The commissions kill the profits on small 1 minute chart moves with options. Yes, that FXY gap is huge and as Eric said last night it is actionable so big down day?

Benton, where to you find news on the Fed putting more money into the system?

Only bull plays that have not stopped out are BOOM and CVD.

The FXY --- whoa.



Michelle

Bob -

I have a TV on my desk ... turned MUTE to CNBC ... I read headlines and market indices all day long ... but it is in MUTE mode ..... If I listened, the way they do things on CNBC, emotion would rocket like the VIX ... I stay away from it ...

Word is the new FOX Business Channel is setting up programming to do the complete opposite of CNBC .. it debuts within about 60 days ... we'll see!

Arty -
No, although DRYS is looking bearish with the break below 52.60; but it is also sitting at some weak spt right now.

Bob Raimo or anybody,
How do you measure target for a double top?


Michelle

Scoot,
Thanks for the input.

Anybody Selling calls?

ARTY

3 mo t-bill trading at a 3.40 yield. Now that is fear. This thing is gapping up 50 basis points a day.

BAC and C are up, Reits doing OK. Be careful with your shorts in here.

We are going to close in the green.
(disclaimer: it could go down also).

Jamie

Michelle,

Go to www.thepatternsite.com and click on chart patterns, then scroll down to the D's and pick double top. It gives a good discussion of how to measure these and probabilities of reaching its proce target.

Sean,
It didn't find that website, and gave me sites for sewing.

M

Russell 2000 is in the green

Jamie

Michelle,

I just tried it again and it worked fine. Try this link:

http://www.thepatternsite.com/

M,

Here is another good explanation:

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_top.htm

Well, closed my IWM puts before I left this morning and it looks like that was wise at least for the moment. It it keeps going up I may get back in by the end of the day.

Meanwhile in other news, my NOV spread which was a slam dunk sure thing 2 days ago is now deep ITM. NOV better stop falling or I will be facing a nasty loss by expiry. Feh.

Sean,
Oops, forgot the http part. I'll try it again after I do lunch for my kids.

Thanks,
Michelle

Jeff mentioned XOM the other day. It's down through the neckline... looking pretty good. Anybody take this trade yet?

Lisa,

I would have if I had seen the close yesterday.

FXY

Scoot,
Assuming you saw yesterday as the break in the neckline? I actually had it drawn around the 81 - 81.50 area. So I was looking for a break around that area. However, given the target, there is still potential for a big move. And I would use the $81 area as my risk level. Still considering it.. It's good to get other feedback. Thanks.

XOM-

I agree that this setup looks good. H&S break of neckline at about 81.50 I'd say confirmed today. Given the height of the head at around 12.00, that puts the target of 67. Plenty of downside still.
The only hesitation might be that it's on below average volume and todays move may be nothing more than carried by the broader market.

Matt

Lisa,
Sorry, I should have been more clear. The close yesterday would have been a signal for me to pay attention to it this morning. I see the neckline at 81.50 which clearly showed itself to be new resistance this morning. So I would have tried to enter the trade this morning as soon as it broke that level although the re-test was a safer entry. It's too far from where I would exit now so I will just let this one go - there will be other trades. I did play the H&S back in Dec on this guy and it behaved perfectly. I don't know it it will this time or not but a re-test up to the 81.50 area might be a good entry.

Hope that helps.

You know it's a bad day in the market when the FXY makes the list of NYSE chart toppers.

I think this is officially a correction, major indexes down 10% from the 12 month high.

Hope everyone is put heavy.

Joel R.

Crikey, the S&P is cutting through support like a hot knife through butter!

Scoot,
Got it. I have also been trying to use Raimo's enter at/near the exit strategy so that is one of the things that causes me to hesitate now. Also, as Matt indicated, given today's overall market activity, it is so hard to tell whether it was ready to break or if it has been brought down by the overall market.... But, I'm keeping my eye on it!

DOW dwn 306
FXY gapped up 2.58

i was expecting a little resistance on FIG @ 17.50, but it just jumped the hurdle !!!!

I have a question regarding XOM.....we are coming into the prime of hurricane season, there are at least 3 out "there" right now....i was just wondering if anyone knew what effect the storms may have on a stock like XOM (if any at all)....i would not expect a hurricane to change the overall trend, i was just wondering if anyone knew.....
also....how does a bad hurricane season effect utilities (FPL)???

Oh boy am I pissed that I sold my IWM puts this morning. That was the only thing making me any money today. I think I'm done for the week.

Be ready for the rate cut when it comes. At this rate, it will be sooner rather than later.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6_5PxyLQCS8&refer=home

Tonya, I was thinking about researching some historical charts from around the times of some of the previous hurricanes. I just haven't had the time.

Joel R.

Tonya,
Hurricanes tend to drive the price of oil up (it becomes a potential supply issue) - which is generally bullish for companies like XOM. The other thing to take into account is if the hurricane causes production issues for a company. They might have to temporarily abandon oil wells in the gulf or they could sustain damage to a rig(s) or refineries, this would obviously be bad for them.

An idea though is to play the airlines bearishly. For instance, CAL is based in Houston and has a lot of flights out of here. When a hurricane heads this way (I live in Houston), not only is there the issue of the higher price of oil working against them, but the rain can also cause flight delays/cancelations. I don't know how much this contributed to Tuesday and Wednesday's price action but combined with a good technical entry, it was most enjoyable!

Michelle-
Did you find the information you were looking for on double tops?

Look at the confirmation level which is around 539/540 and the height of the 2nd top (that one is a little higher which is suppose to be a sign of a good double top). So 539/540 to 599/500. That's your measurement.

Hope that helps. If I missed something I'm sure the websites you were given will help with the rest.

liz

Did you guys see how much silver dropped today. At one time it was all the way down to 110. Crazy.

liz

Well the JEC and CROX trades bullish trades didn't last long. Can't find a bullish trade I like so pretty much pure short at this point. 1 bullish trade still defying gravity is GMCR right on support. Hold on baby!

If your looking for a fresh short entry point:

AMG breaking long term horizontal support at 104.

VMC broke long term support yesterday at 91, already out running that line though.

XOM looks to be breaking its H&S neck today.

GGP is still fairly close to diagonal support. Has resisted the down pressure fairly well unfortunately but not moving up either.

DRC recently retested a H&S and is starting to breakdown.

Whoever called out RTI yesterday, thanks.

Look at the FXY, wow and double wow. There goes the liquidity.

Michelle-

Sorry... I meant 599/600 not 500.

liz

Liz,
Thanks. I got it. It has been so crazy today that looking up stuff has been tough. Not one of those market days you twiddle thumbs.
Thank God the kids were pretty good today.


Michelle

thanks for the input Scoot.....

Joel, i will do the same tonight (thanks)

I don't know that the down movement is over. FXY is still real high. Looks like there might be some short covering.
Hold on to your horses.

I agree with whoever said something up there about the Fed. I'll bet they step in in the next few days if this keeps up.
It makes it hard to decide to buy puts or calls.

M

clean cups....

DG,
What are your plans for your NOV spread?
I too could have closed this for 80% gain 2 days ago but wanted to get that last $300 bucks. How stupid was that?!!
I need to get to 108 to get out even. Could happen with a big rally.
I did close a bull put spread on NMX for a 80% profit. Look at that chart now.... Yikes!!!

Rd