Jeff, Liz, and Grant, nice photo. I will be sure to where my OA gear to our 3 day.

Bob,
Nice rattler. You know they taste like rabbit!

Wow what a close.

Look out below.


Cheers,
ARTY

Bob , what kind of snake is it? Is it dead? If it is how did you kill it? Can you throw it at the bulls for me. Thanks

It's a rattlesnake. I think it is obvious how it met its demise!

Hey Rambo, way to keep in character! Glad you got the rattler instead of the other way around.

What a wild day on the ole Addicts blog ....

Arty ... I've got some junk right now too but they are still within rules. I'm not paying much attention to the account ... just the stops and targets ... I'm in on the Group hug!

Liz and Grant .. superb photo ... Amazing how Sir Kohler always is the TALLER of ANYONE in those pictures ..

Raimo ... You should be labeled .. "sir- yes -sir" after that pix. WILD stuff! Thanks for your contributions here!

PETS & CROX went on my research list today .. thanks for those!

Good evening everyone!

Michelle,

The volume for me is not enough for a trend reversal pattern...VCP just not doing it for me.
Does not mean you should not take the trade. If it works for you, then trade it.

Hey liz and grant,
Now I know what you two look like. Of course I would have known in Edmonton (nudge, nudge.) Great to see the OA gear out there making a statement.

Rambo... you da man. If it'd been me, I would have hurled a hanky at it... performed some kind of innovative tribal dance, and run away. Your crystal balls seem to be bigger than mine. Don't tell Catherine. You should have put it in your teeth and said you'd bitten it to death. Oh well, next time.

There's hope for CROX here, folks. PCP, on the other hand, I think is a gonner. I'm going to keep an eye on it though, as my support line is drawn with a pretty thin pencil. If it were a crayon it might still be alive.

I'm gonna wait and get some kind of confirmation on PETS before considering it... but I like the look of it.

Brett, BPHX still looks pretty triangular, to me. I'd say it's got a ways to go. The Phoenix of the Feet though... now IT'S ready to blast off.

Raimo, nice fake snake. My 3 1/2 year old has one of those too. I think he got it at Walgreen's.

Hey Raimo,
Had a closer look at the snake and he looks pretty pissed. If you wake up tomorrow and there's tuna sandwich behind your ears... watch out for the Revenge of the Rattler!!!

ARTY, I'll get in on that group hug, too. We survived and will live to trade another day!

The rattler has most of its rattle missing. I grabbed this sucker by the tail, swung it around and smashed it's head into the ground a few times, breaking off its rattle. And i did not need a dang hanky to do it...!

The 9mm Glock was for pictures only.

Brett...fake..look in your crystal ball...then look under your pillow tonight!

And I like Tuna...

****************** WMT ***************

Here's an interesting story. We have a friend who's been making a ton of money this past year doing spreads on WalMart. It would never EVER drop below $45. Today the stock was down $2.35 and closed at $43.82 I think this will be the straw that broke the camel's dam (if you get my drift.) They're in deep doo-doo but you have to go back to the '90s to find the last time the stock went below 42.50 Keep an eye on it. If it breaks 42.50 I think you'll have to look hard to find the bottom of the hole.

Hey guys. Had to let PCP go today. Sad to see it go as it was my longest running trade. It was a stock trade and I bought it back around 100 so took a nice profit. Feel good about it, just wish it would have kept on trending. Not that it won't keep going but to me it broke trend and support today so I had to get out.

Raimo, I like your explanation of being very selective on trades. I, too, am trying to only enter trades at the exit. I got PFCB that way last week and it's been doing great.

Here's one I'd like you guys' opinions on. I bought a call (that's right, one) on BOOM right at the close today. To me, it is sitting right at the exit, but I still feel weird about it being bullish in such an uncertain market.

What say you guys -- Raimo? Others? No matter the outcome, was this a good entry? What did I miss or what could I have done better?

Raimo,
No, I am not looking to trade it. Just watching and studying stocks. I am keeping my trading pretty small right now. I am doing what you said, enter at the exit point, it keeps the losses small that way. GRMN and RIMM, thought I entered at a good price today, support, but got stopped out (thank God) because they broke the point of where I would exit and only took a small loss. It was so less stressful to enter the trades that way. VCP was just still on my watch list. As I was flipping through stocks today, noticed it and wanted your take.

Thanks for giving the time to look at this stuff. I would rather learn watching stuff than losing money.
Nice snake -- is that, like, a hobby?

Chris,
Yeah, I gave up on PCP a few days ago. Too bad. That one was a good stock. Now my list of stocks holding up in this market is even smaller: CAM, CVD, POT, VMI (maybe BIDU)

Michelle

Tim,
Most excellent call on PFCB!! I would have waited on BOOM, as it's got some huge downward momentum to overcome, for a bounce right here. And these 4 down days have been on pretty hefty volume. I'd have my finger on the exit trigger tomorrow. But that's the joy of trading single contracts. That's pretty much what I'm doing right now. Can't hack the stress of big buck moves.

Wow, any attempt to go bullish on just for diversification purposes is getting me killed. After sweating through PCP's massive drop and recovery on Friday, it finally got me good today.

All the relative strength stocks are giving in and dropping.

I'm now short everything so the market should rally tomorrow.

Thanks Chris. On Boom -- what would you be looking for in the days to come before entering a trade?

Tim,

As someone who has traded BOOM the last couple of months, I feel qualified to answer. I was looking for a bounce off the short-term trendline, which didn't happen. The next hopeful support point is $39 on the next trendline (from the ascending triangle). That could hold, and if it doesn't, $37.50 better hold, but then you're giving up a lot of room there. Plus look at the volume on those 2 turnaround days at the top. After that horrendous candle to close the day (at the low), I would have preferred to see a bounce up before entering. Not to mention perhaps a drop in the IV, which is sky high right now.

But Tim, I can assure you it couldn't touch my dumbest entry of the week, so hey, good luck with it! I hope it works for you.

Thanks Brett. I appreciate the input. That is very helpful.

Michelle,
I hate to burst your bubble, but I'd take a hard look at BIDU. It looks to me like it could be interpreted as a double top. I ran some fibs on it a long time ago (Nov to Jan) and left them up. The 261.8% line has been sitting at $213 for months and July 16 it bounced off it, then bounced off again on the 27th. Coincidence? I think not. Volatility is drying up on it which is nice, but I'd think twice before considering a bullish play on this. I also see diagonal support having been broken a few days ago.

And then there were four.

Chris,
You are sooooo funny. Yeah. I was looking at the watchlists, and all the bearish trades I didn't enter made a move. But I am trying to keep my trading small, so I can only play a few. I was looking for a few strong stocks to buy to keep my 401(k) engaged, but most everything stopped out, depleting funds yet more. So I will just leave it alone. Thanks for your input. I will keep a close eye on that one. I have one call I bought at one of the low points today and am not going to give it much room. Trying not to be all bearish because even in a bearish market you have up days too.

Michelle

Tim,
I see I am late to the party again. I'm going to have Raimo ask Brett what his dumbest entry of the week was.

The good thing (for me) is that I agree exactly with what Brett said. I would look for some sort of indication that this rush to the bottom is going to stop. A hesitation with decent volume would be a start, but I'd like to see an uptick with volume before jumping in. The last 4 days has just been way too negative for my liking.

BIDU - I see a huge symmetrical triangle that is coiling really tight. I'd wait to see which way it breaks before jumping on.

Brett,
Please share with us your dumbest entry of the week. Maybe it will help some of us feel better.

BOOM was on my list today too but I decided to wait until it stopped going down and as I see it, it has about another point before it is ripe for the picking.

Hey Michelle,
You should try what I'm doing. I still have 11 trades on the go right now but I'm down to single contracts or a couple if they're really cheap (I'm using about 1/3 the money per trade that I was before.) This way I've got almost 80% cash right now but when I look at my account I've tricked myself into thinking that I'm fully invested!! I'm so gullible it kills me.

Michelle,

I don't see GRMN or RIMM anywhere near a support line to make an entry on them today??

Tim,

As for BOOM.....while my colleague Brett has already identified the axis of entry and y of exit, the intersteller parrallel that exists between the IV and the UV, along with the intra relationship between the delta submissive transient line that supports the price action and how it correlates to the volume, one could say, as Brett did, that the entry post analysis may have been more prudent confirming that a change in price action and volume in the direction of the intended trade.

I of course kust look into my Crystal Ball...

Does this help??

Chris-
You are too funny! You've been on a roll lately. I wish my trading was on par with your humor.


Arty-
You should definitely show off your threads at the 3 day.


Benton-
Sir Kohler is very tall and next to him I look even shorter.


Raimo-
Love the picture. Is that a Polaris Ranger in the background?


Bob-
(from previous thread)... Love the cabinets. They are beautiful! They truly are.


Well boys... I'm going back to the drawing board. Lots of studying to do today and catch up. Lots of catch up.

liz

Damn the support on this blog is unbelievable thanks to all who have chimed in on the group hug, encouragement etc.

I have wiped my tears dry and I back to the learning, and enough of my sniveling.

Anyway, Bob and Flying Pro along with many others have mentioned

"entering at the exit". Would someone care to teach young grasshopper ARTY?

Arty,
That was coined by Raimo and it simply means taking an entry as close to support as you can get so that your exit (below support) will be so close that your loss would be minimal. It's been working for me in keeping me out of trades that I see too late.

Tim,

One last comment on entries like the one you took on BOOM. In this market it scares the pants off of me to have nothing but Puts and shorts in my basket. On a good recovery day my account would not be pleasing.

If you took the trade remember you are right at an exit. That means it is alright to exit with the small loss.

I have gotten caught up in those kind of trades. You think if the market goes up I need some balance. Then the market goes down and I think "I will wait until the end of the day (my rules)". The stock goes down then rallies at the close a little bit. Now my loss is bigger than I had wanted, but with a crayon it hasn't broken my support and I hope it goes back up and the support is really there. I will hold and see what it does tomorrow. Then the next day you get crushed. Bottom line if you have taken the trade at it's exit, don't forget it's on a short leash, only give it the room until it pulls on that short leash, then dump it like a used hankey.

Tom D. (Flying-Pro)

ARTY
Careful there, son. Raimo's packin' a pistol and I think he likes grasshoppers as much as rattlers.

Bob (and Pam) I keep forgetting to mention the cabinet. Man, that is fiiiiiiiine work. I have built tack boxes for my girls and tried to put some finess into them but that puts my wildest dreams to shame (although my wildest dreams don't usually involve wood cabinets...)

Liz, believe me you don't wish your trading was on a par with my trading this past two weeks. I was doing really, really well, and the wheels have fallen off this past week. I've been working too hard during the day... so I'm down to next to nothing now and am inching my way back in. As I mentioned I'm keeping the quantity of trades up, just dropping the dollar values so that I'm still playing several stocks. I find the learning keeps moving along that way.

Hey Logan... if you're lurking out there, I'd love to know where you got the plans for the house you're going to build. I just worked with a guy who has built 5 houses in the last 6 years and he talked me into doing what you're doing. Now we're looking for a nice 50 acre lot or so. We're going to put a barn on it too. But I'm looking for some creative house plans now.

Bob (and Pam)

I also forgot to tell you how great the cabinets look. Is each sq an individual sq? If so WOW. I have a buddy that is a surgeon. He commented one day that he loves woodworking but doesn't do it much. I said something stupid, like yea, don't want to hurt your hands. His comment was "No you need to be too precise and have your fits just right woodworking. If my fits are not all that great at work the body will fix my mistakes"

So your Mom's cabinets are better than a surgeon could do. At least the one I know.....

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

Raimo, I saw the your picture with the snake and gun
neither of which look like much fun,

I am sorry for all that I have said
because now I fear I could be dead,

your clothes, Raimo, they look quite dirty
did I mention you don't look a day over 30!!,

and your abs, is that a 6-pack?
I promise, sir, no more flack,

so put down your gun, get cleaned up
you don't want to miss the next clean cups,

and if you want, I could clean
your jeep for you and make it sheen,

you are a snappy dresser, but I thought you should know
GQ magazine will certainly not bestow,

the title of "Best Dressed" I fear
unless you purchase OA hunting gear!

The Phantom Poet

Chris-

These last few weeks have made me feel like I'm starting all over again learning how to trade. I guess that's not a bad thing but it is a little intimidating. I think it helped having the 3 day to go to in between all this craziness. I feel like it helped me brush up on past learning and gave me some new stuff to work on and add to my arsenal.

Oh, and you can find a bunch of house plans on the internet.

http://www.coolhouseplans.com
http://www.ehouseplans.com
http://www.houseplanz.com

These are a few of the sites I have bookmarked. We don't have that 50 acre site yet so I just dream for the moment.

liz

Chris, Yeah, I'm out here lurking. Unfortunately, I have not read a complete day's posts in weeks. I just chime in every once and a while. Work, getting the house ready for sale, blah, blah, blah. You know the drill. Tonight is the last all nighter, the house goes on the market tomorrow. I will post the link in case all those Oregonians out there are looking for a second home in the foothills of Mt. Hood. Only fifteen minutes from the nearest ski area...

Yeah, Liz is right, there are a lot of sites on the internet. We will be using a Mascord plan (mascord.com). Plan 22115. We will be doing the lower level which is an added option as well as a few other customizations. We should be breaking ground the week of the 28th.

I can’t wait to fulfill my trading addiction again.

I'll be back... and I am LOVING those bears!

I was just kidding when I said I was riding TMA out of business yesterday. The first two days it was down 25% each day.
Today I closed the trade when it was down another 40% and was kicking myself when trading was halted on it just a few hours later. I thought they might be declaring bankruptcy and going to $0. Turns out, at least for now, I was lucky to get out as they declared they are going to sell assests. After hours is up $2.(25%)

The puts on DECK are ringing the register also.

I'm late to the blog but that is a nice picture of Bob and the snake he ran over.
Just guessing, but the way Raimo is dressed I'd say he was a Steeler fan.

Rd (Browns)

Logan-

Very cool. Congratulations! It's very exciting. This is one of many of Grant's and my goals. Land... build house on it...

liz

Liz,

Yes a Polaris Ranger.

I see the PP is back again aye....

Okay....looks like I need to respond...

Bob...those cabinets are absolutely fabulous!!!! are you sure those are hand made??? STUNNING !!!

Raimo....you are brave!! (or maybe crazy!!) that pic makes my skin curl....YIKES

Liz&Grant.....you guys are too cute!!!

now i have to go do something to get that snake out of my mind!!!

I need help.

So far I have e-mailed two different people, two different times about finding an investment group and no one contacts me. Does anyone know of any groups in the NC area, specifically Wilmington.

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Laney,
Love the Bueller comment.

Logan and liz.... but not together... thanks for the info on houses. John, that's sooooo cool that you're getting set to break ground. This guy that I worked with builds them all the time and he says it's the only way to go. You'll love it. Can't wait to see pics. Please make sure to send lots as the project moves along. Just remember, the elephants like to use big holes as litter boxes, so don't leave the basement uncovered for too long.

I see the Phantom is back. Guess that means we'll be hearing from Chip soon.

I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on my WMT post. I'd like to know if anyone else sees the same thing or if I'm trying to make a possible trade that's not really there.

It sure is nice having this community to comfort us in times of dumpiness, and to brag to when we hit the home run. Thanks everyone, for your support and input.

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

C2, I see support around 37.5 from August 99 on WMT. That thing has flatlined for a long time.

The bulls will defend SPX 1419 tomorrow.

Jamie

Raimo,

Don't even entertain the last A....hole that responded. If he is a true outdoorsman, he would have the COJONES to leave his name. I find myself in the strange position to defend my nemesis. Go figure!

PP

Dear Anonymous,

While we welcome your presence, we don't welcome your tone or your sarcasm. If you look back on the history of the comments on this blog, you will be hard-pressed to find any that have the vemon that yours does.

When your fingers are hovering above the keyboard ask yourself two questions before you type.

1. Would I be comfortable saying this to someone's face?

2. Would I want someone to say this to me?

We are all adults, here. Let's try to act like it.

would anyone (else) consider puts on ESRX? from the chart i'm looking to get to around $45.
j.M

Bob Raimo,

I saw support on GRMN at 94.50, which it passed up.
I saw support on RIMM at 209, which it passed up. Do you use the line chart for support and resistance? I use candles.

Michelle

Arty,

I posted this, but in the wrong thread... here's a repost:

Arty,

I've been there, buddy. The best thing you can do right now is get rid of the worst trades (the breakouts that failed, the bounces that didn't bounce) and keep only the stuff that's working. Make sure you're diversified so that you make money on up and down days. Pare back, keep only the best trades and TAKE only the best trades. Ask yourself, "If I only had enough money for one trade, would I take THIS one?" If you find more than one of these, that's a bonus.

By cleaning out your portfolio, you'll make those losses real, but you'll set yourself up for a new day. Nothing is better than waking up to a portfolio of positions you're happy about. Plus, your odds of seeing your account rise are much better.

Think of your account as a garden. Right now, you walk into it, you're disgusted by it, confused at how it got to look this way. Yank out the weeds and only plant the best looking seeds. It will take a few days, but you'll see results quickly.

But don't stop there. Take all those garbage trades and see where you went wrong. Don't just blame the market taking down good trades. Did you have too many stocks in one sector? Did you not wait until the end of the day on a breakout? Did you not wait for the bounce to confirm? Did you not properly price your options.

LEARN from this. Trust me, it may seem dark right now, but I was pretty bummed 2 weeks ago, but i went through that process and last week MORE than made up for it. And I became a sharper trader for it.

Keep your head up, buddy. But you need to learn what you did wrong. It's the best use of that money you lost.

This comment has been removed by the author.

Hey Raimo,
I found a light fixture I think you'd love go to this website, it's from the housebuilder that Logan's using.

http://www.mascord.com/planviewer/main.asp?PlanGraphicID=3305

Brett,
Excellent advice. Well said.



Michelle

Hey, let's keep it clean in here.

I welcome different view points, opinions, and banter... but let's go easy on the personal attacks.

Blog on dudes.

I must have missed the post...perhaps Jeff removed it.

Whatever it was, trust me, my skin is thicker than the snakes I've killed, and the snake that posted it, whatever it was, and whoever it is, is just wasting bandwith.

I thank all the addicts here for coming to my defense, and I will:

1) continue to help where I think I can
2) provide any entertainment even at the risk of being laughed at and made fun of (I'll get you Phantom Poet)
3)Defend the friendliness that Jeffs community has provided along with a great learning experience


And Finally


4)Stop Brett from posting his watchlists!!! LOL

Thank you addicts for having my back, I'll always have yours.

I just ignored him. I think bullies just want attention.

Raimo, we love anybody who tackles snakes and comes out the victor.

Michelle

Guess I missed the gruesome post. Just as well.

Raimo-
I love those rangers. My husband thinks I'm kooky but that's nothing new.


Chris-
Were you talking about the spread trading on WMT? Well, it's been hanging around inside the same channel since about 99. Between about 61 & 43. I see previous support around 38/39 from back around 99 or so. It seems pretty solid but anything can change in a few days. It's still above that 43 long term support level.

And where were you in 99??? Hmmmm.... I had just graduated from college two years before and was writing cheesy stand ups for television hosts. But I lived with two other room mates right across the street from the 9th street break in Huntington Beach, California so that was cool because I was making jack but I still had an ocean view (along with Taco Bell). And now... I'm making some beans. Kinda.

Tonya-
Thanks for the compliment. I felt like such a dork. I'm usually the one behind the camera taking pictures.

liz

Thanks for taking care of us Jeff (removing inappropriate posts)!

Great pics from above. Raimo, I used to go rattlesnake hunting with my husband...hated it. I can't say that I miss the gool ol' days.
Liz and Grant, glad you got to meet the wizard.

Chris, my husband and I like www.conceptualhouseplans.com. We are looking at HDC3475.

I am actually starting to feel more comfortable in this market. Brett, your posts have been invaluable. Also, thank you to all the bloggers. You are a wealth of information.

Jeff,

thanks for removing offensive posts,,it shows your class,,,that is why we love this blog,,,positive learning environment

thanks again for all you do

sue

Jeff,
Finally got to listen to the price pattern class from this morning. Excellent. Is there a way to view the right side of the screen better? When you enlarge your charts, it cuts off the right side on my screen.

Anyway, thanks. I think I will start listening to that every week until this stuff becomes rote.

Michelle

Damn Jeff, How tall are you? If you ever make it to minneapolis we'll have to play some basketball if you do, haha.

getting ready to listen to the market cast.

Ben

Brett,
Thanks for the awesome post. By the way my garden looks like shit too and so do I. How does anyone find time for the gym?

I have been reading for almost 5 months straight last time I worked out was in May (I think).

Anyway, I have been sitting here analyzing my short (in duration) trading life. Right after the US steel gift I went +79.10, -3.49, -8.02, +489.51, +155.91, +321.33, -22.90 on some of the greats X, MLM, SNHY, EXM, POT, CROX, MLM (a different MLM). I felt like I knew what I was doing.

I closed out of my big killers today GOOG, GRMN, MCD, MSTR (Short), and I am sorting through the rubble.

Brett, I got cocky. I was up 50% YTD somewhere around last Thursday when all hell broke loose. Puts went up, Calls down. You have been there. I was also buying in at 50% higher position size based on my recent gains. I think I am over trading.

When I crawl out from under this paper pile I will let you know what I find. I hope it is not a rattlesnake!

Thanks again. May your way OTM Russel puts hit big tomorrow!


Cheers,
ARTY

Reading Market Watch and one of the headlines was Sentinel wanting to freeze assets to keep from investors making a run on the fund.
Talk about a panic ensuing. Jeff and Eric, I think this thing is bigger than we realized, but not you guys. Not trying to scare anyone, just make sure you have a balanced portfolio.

M

Arty,
I was just there a few weeks ago.

Brett's advice was sage. You will find the courage to trade again and be successful, just give it a little time.

Michelle

Michelle,

I look for multiple points where a stock price has touched and bounced off a trendline. A few candles over a few days do not make a trend or support line.

Using GRMN as an example, on a 6 month chart, you can start a diag trendline on 5/18 and run it up through the bottom of the candle on 7/27 (closing prices I used,candles, not wicks).

That is a trendline. There is no trendline or support at 94.50. For a horizontal trendline, there is some support at perhaps $85. If I was going to take a trade on GRMN to the upside, I'd be looking for garmin to bounce off my diag line which should occur around maybe $90 or so. And this would be entering the trade close to my exit.

I believe it is a mistake to go long GRMN, or any stock for that matter, when it is that far away from support...you have too much risk to the downside, you are simply chasing the trade and doomed from the start.

I suggest BEFORE you put your money on the table, CLEARLY identify trendlines, strong trendlines, and especially so in this market.

As an example of a smarter entry, look at CROX. Good DIAG trendline support, possible HZ support at $50ish, and on a big down day, the stock held its ground. When i took down this trade today, I clearly defined my exit at a close below $50. I risked $2 for a potential $8 move....

Do you see the difference?

Arty,

This is a test.

Why did you get out of GOOG?

A)GOOG is losing me money
B)GOOG broke a support level
C)My entry was bad
D)It represents too much % of my portfolio
E)Jeff said he sees a potential H & S on it setting up

I'm tired, I'm cranky, & I know EXACTLY how you feel, Arty.
I'm the only person on the planet dumb enough to lose money on PCP today!
I think it's the Phantom Poet's fault.
I got into the trade 8/10 at the close, & set my stop at the opening price of the hammer - about $131. My trading rules say to exit a trade at the close if I'm stopped out, so I set a timed stop in TOS (I was away from the computer most of the day). It triggered at 3:59 EST & stopped me out - over FOUR DOLLARS below my stop!!!
So I lost about a bizzillion dollars today in PCP. (My husband said "I told you so...")
I'm still ahead today because of all the puts, but that's beside the point.
I am no longer worthy to be a village idiot. I'm demoting myself to dweeb.

grumblegrumblegrumble
Pat

Wow....go dancing for a few hours and I miss the fireworks. Probably just as well. Interesting that whenever the market drops big time it brings the crazies out to slam us.

Brett, that was a most excellent post to Arty. Wise words to remember whenever it gets rough. Thank you.

Jm - a few posts back you asked about buying puts on ESRX and nobody answered so I'll chime in with my $.02. I wouldn't do it. Yes, it may be a double topped head and shoulders whatever but it is a strong stock fundamentally and until the last 2 weeks, it has been in a great uptrend. If the whole market goes down it may go down too. But there are way better candidates out there for put plays, imo.

My $.02 0n GRMN.
The diag trendline was violated when it started flagging around 7/17. Broke out of above mentioned flag around Aug 1. The pole of this flag started in the $60 area (plus or minus)....so a 20 some point potential move on the flag break. GRMN has reached this move and is heading down. I see next stop for Garmin may be the flag break action point of 84-85 ish

Bob,
And my answer is:

D)It represents too much % of my portfolio

I reconciled and reviewed every trade I have made from the get go.

I have a 38% win percentage with a 43% expectancy. I have 15 trades open of which 9 are in the green and 4 of which still have a chance (haven't broken down or exceeded max loss%). 2 will expire worthless unless I get a gift.

I do not know what will happen tomorrow but thanks to some awesome support out there, I know what I will do whatever happens.

Brett, I may not have you beat on worst entry of week but I have some bad entries.

Michelle,
Your experience and tenacity continues to inspire me.


Thanks to all.

Cheers,
ARTY

Brett,
I may have also found a few errors here:

Did you not properly price your options?

Thanks again.

ARTY

Brett-
Loved the garden analogy. Mine's been full of pebbles lately. They get stuck in my shoes and become very annoying. I'm trying to clean things up as well because a rocky garden won't grow much except maybe some weeds.

As much as this has sucked big time I'm kind of glad in a way because it's made me take a step back and really look at what I've been doing and how I've been trading. It's a good lesson on not getting too comfortable and maybe then getting a little too sloppy.


Arty-
We're with you. I've also been reconfiguring my portfolio. Pretty much started all over again.


Amy-
Great looking house! I've bookmarked the website for later reference.


Michelle-
Glad you're still here with us. You're doing a great job keeping people motivated.


Well, I'm off for the night. I've still got some more studying to do.
Talk to you all tomorrow. Hopefully I'll have some insights into something... ;-)

liz

Bob Raimo,
To get closing prices, you put it on line chart? When I do tht I see different things. Is that what you mean? Thanks again for the insight. I also moved my lines on POT.
Not clearly defining support lines, which it looks like I've done, can cause bad entries.

Arty,
Sometimes when you are in that frame of mind (feeling defeated) it might be a good idea to get out of so many trades and clear your head some. That is what they talk about in the Market Wizard books. It's okay to even close profitable trades, too. Nobody will shoot you for doing that (laughter.) Fifteen (in my opinion) is still a lot of trades for this market and your situation. Don't give up.
Preserve your capital and start over fresh.

Michelle

Arty,

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking me, but in the past I have made the error of not pricing my options properly. i had blindly taken the OTM options, when they gave me little chance of profiting. Now, I will analyze multiple options to see if i hit my target what my risk/reward is on all of them.

Does that help?

Time to strap in one more time. Oh and the other day at work I was going to cash on my 401(k). We may break out of this correction or whatever it is, but not being able to get out when I see something bad scares me on my 401(k). Anyway the guy next to me noticed and called his advisor at Fidelity. The advisor told him not to worry at all everything is just coming down a little bit. I may miss some action, but I would rather not make 3-5% in my 401(k) rather than lose another 5%. As sectors get strong and there is a clear trend I will make that back up. Thanks for everyone here for advise, wisdom and calming affect

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

"Not to worry at all, everything is just coming down a little bit."

I actually think I coined that phrase at the beginning of 2000!!

Good morning all,

I can definitely relate with you Arty and Pat. My losses yesterday were from overtrading and having my "on sale" gene for calls kick in. Being on sale is fine as long as the plays are within clearly defined rules, which for GRMN, it definitely wasn't. I saw an opportunity to grab it cheap with the expectation that on an up day it will run fast. It still might.

I have learned a lesson (again, and hopefully for good this time) that I need to have answered the following questions before pulling the trigger on any trade.

1. Does the trend fit in with the direction I want to go?
2. Where is support/resistance?
3. What is my time target for the trade?
4. What is my price target for the trade?
5. How much capital am I risking if the trade goes against me?
6. Am I within my guidelines of % of portfolio risked per trade?
7. Am I diversified through multiple industries?
8. Am I diversified on a bull/bear ratio based on current market conditions?

This is a checklist for me. Can anyone think of any other factors I should be considering? Hope this helps someone else.

Kim
aka "The newest member of the Village Idiots club, as long as you'll have me."

Liz-

Love the house plan. The mixture of brick, stone and gingerbread shingles makes for a beautiful front elevation. My advice, print it out and stick it on your bathroom mirror as motivation for why you're going through this learning process. I've got a one million dollar bill taped to mine. (Okay, it's a 1 dollar bill with bunch of zeros handwritten in.)

Kim

Can someone post the ticker symbol for the Dow futures? Thanks!

Va Beach Girl-

/YM7U

Brett,
Were you trading in 2000? I live in Des Moines and would love to hear first hand how you made the call to go full time into trading. If my calculation are right and I keep doing what I am doing in the markets I am projecting Oct, 2010 when I could trade FT.

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

Whoever mentioned the analyze tab on TOS, a big thanks to you! What a powerful and timesaving tool. It's mindblowing how much stuff is on the download version that I have yet to learn.

Kim

Brett- thanks!

Kim

Kim,

The only other thing I would ask that you look at is;

How much of my total portfolio is at risk.

I have been looking at days like yesterday and once a week I go through and figure what % would my account be down if ALL of my positions got stopped out.

May just be a mind game that I play with myself. I take the loss all of my calls being stopped out and do the same with my puts. Which ever # is bigger I find out what % of my account that would be so I know total risk.

That makes me have cash laying around and make the tough choices of... If I want to take this trade what is in my portfolio that I am willing to close out. Because of that I am getting more selective in the trades I am in.

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

Tom D-

I'd rather not bore the other bloggers with a rehash of my story again. You can find it in past posts on this blog. In fact, Jeff did a feature of it in May or June of this year.

Arty,

Okay bud..lets work this.

On GOOG, lets assume that the % of your portfolio on the trade was within your rules. Would you still have exited, and why??

Tom,

Thanks for the heads up on the TOS analyze section.

I am trying to learn how to use it.

I have a question about when you do your total risk analysis.

Many times when I have drawn a line in the sand to exit, by the end of the day when I get out of the trade, the line has been breached and often times by a lot. So the loss I take is a lot more then I initially thought it would be especially with options.

Do you wait until the end of day to exit your trades? If so how do you take this into account in your risk management analysis?

If anyone has any ideas on this it would be a great help. I struggle with this one daily.

Anu

Brett,

(OTM) Does that help?

Yes it does.

ARTY

Anu,

I will pick a point getting into a trade that is my end of day stop, but also pick my anytime the price moves past a point stop. I try to position size around my worst case stop. What this really means is I need to take smaller positions than someone else with an account my size. I do base my total loss on my end of day stops, so I could lose more than I think.

Like I said it may just be a mental game for me to control how much I have on the table. 6 weeks ago I had 90% of my account in options and a ton of risk out there. When things started changing I looked at my risk and realized I could get hurt so bad it would take 6 months to recover. So I added this rule to keep me in check and in the game.

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

Anu,

I will pick a point getting into a trade that is my end of day stop, but also pick my anytime the price moves past a point stop. I try to position size around my worst case stop. What this really means is I need to take smaller positions than someone else with an account my size. I do base my total loss on my end of day stops, so I could lose more than I think.

Like I said it may just be a mental game for me to control how much I have on the table. 6 weeks ago I had 90% of my account in options and a ton of risk out there. When things started changing I looked at my risk and realized I could get hurt so bad it would take 6 months to recover. So I added this rule to keep me in check and in the game.

Tom D (Flying_Pro)

Anu,

I too exit at the end of the day, which means sometimes things blow past my exit points by a lot.

What I have done in the past is take my exit point minus 3% below my exit point and then divide that in half and use that point to factor the risk. This worked pretty well in the trending, less volatile market. In this higher volatility, I am using 3% below the exit point to calculate risk.

So, if my exit is a close below 100, then i will figure risk based on getting out at 97. This means lots smaller position size, but that is a good thing I think.

That huge gap down on countrywide this morning was as nice as this white mocha I am drinking.

Oh I mean black coffee. Who do I think I am?

ARTY

Come on GRMN, be a good boy now and come to Mama!

Tom and Tim,

Thank you.

I will incorporate these ideas into my rules and see how they work for in my trading.

Anu

I am liking crox. anyone else see a good level of support in isrg at 195

gh

long island ny

Bob,
OK, would I exit the trade. No. Why because I have one of two criteria that must be met.

(I have a sneaking suspicion I will be narrowing that to one.)

Either the trade breaks down (closes below support) or exceeds my max loss on one trade.

Cheers,
ARTY

I have been watching LVS. I think it has pulled back to a strong horizontal support form a very nice breakout. The volume on the pullback also has been low compared to the breakout volume. Any opinions?

Anu

GH,

I took down CROX yesterday....and CME is a low risk entry today..

WOW, I am out one afternoon and then decide to spend the rest of the evening with the family and I miss all this action. It has taken me all morning to read through all the posts. Thanks for all the kind comments on the cabinets. Yes, they are real and handmade, yes my Dad cut each square individually and glued them together to make the doors. You should see the ones he did in the bathroom they are curved! I thought he was nuts. I have a woodworking "shop" in my garage but do not have time to use it much.

Raimo, we have had two rattler run ins in our backyard but I never thought to grab them and wave them around.

Arty, I am with you and have had many days and weeks like you describe. As I am mainly in cash now I am not losing and gaining small amounts each day. Brett's outline is just what I did and after letting some time go by then reviewing again it was like I was reviewing someone else's trades and could see mistakes in many of my trades.

Jeff, thanks for linking the cabinets. Who knew my Dad would get 15 minutes of fame due to his cabinets on a trading blog.

Tom-

Thanks for the addition to my checklist. Your explanation was very clear and I agree that monitoring total portfolio risk currently in play is a good thing.

Kim

Anu,

On LVS, I see the support bounce this morning off of 92.50 with the decreasing on volume on the way down. There is resistance at about 97 so for my rules, a bullish entry would have to be a lot closer to the 92.50 than it currently is. Ideally, some consolidation action around 92.50 and then a move up on strong volume would be even better.

SPX 1419 defended valliantly. Hope some of you jumped on board with quick profits.

Let's hope that fort built around 1419 isn't the Alamo.

Jamie

Quick profits? I'm mostly short. My profits are rapidly melting here.

Does anybody know which ETFs are the short equivalents for SPY and or IWM? I have an account that I can't trade options in and need to hedge. Not the QID or SDS which are doubles.

Doji,

SH is short S&P. RWM is short Russell.

You can find all of them on www.amex.com. On the left click "ETFs" then "Product Information" then choose "broad based" from the drop down.

An excellent ETF resource.

Scoot,

I see the support, but I don't see the resistance of 97.

Kim-

as per comments a long thread ago... I also have a check with the number one and a bunch of zeros posted on my fridge.

liz

Tim, thanks!

Does anybody think this little up bounce we're seeing this morning has legs? SHould I worry at all that all my short positions are going down while my calls are also going down?

Doji,
I am keeping a close watch. It's anybody's guess. The one thing I do see is that even though the market is up a little, it's not much. Plus, where is support for the DOW anywhere near? That's all I see. Can't really make heads or tails of it yet. Maybe somebody with more experience will give their insight.

Michelle

Anu,

I am getting the resistance from 11/27/06 and the peak beginning on 12/04/06 (I also see it on a 5 year chart). Since the price has raced through that level on 1/10, 2/9, and 8/6, the argument can be made as to how strong it is. I am also looking at the failure to close above it on 8/3/07 and the close on 8/13 right at that level.

Something else I just noticed on the five year weekly chart is that it is looking like a possible bearish engulfing pattern on a declining double top pattern.

DOW

At diag support right now..and if you like using Fibb's, at a 50% retracement level...

ICE - breaking the neckline.
Something like a 30 pt drop...


liz

Bob,

You are welcome. Sorry it was such a fiasco.

Jeff

ICE-

Just make sure you're aware of the consolidation in this industry. ICE could be a takeover target or even an acquirer.

Brett-

Thanks for the input.

liz

I was recently taught by a professional day trader with 10 year's of experience to watch the S&P for a feel of what the market is doing (he said this is the most important index to "big money"). With that in mind, it looks like today is a bounce off of about 1420 while making a lower low after a lower high. Currently, there is some weakness showing intra-day.

With the mess in the sub-prime area still going on, I personally am not expecting a rally of any strength any time soon. That is my .02.

Clean thread, I mean new cups!

Jeff, thanks!

DG, I asked the Cast about the short index ETFs and got a reply from Jeff that they are not as liquid as he would like to see. Once I heard this I did not trade them, for my rules away.