China


In case you missed it, China recalled a $hitload of profits today. However, I have already decapitated many of their warriors. FXI, ZNH, BIDU, LVS, WYNN, JRJC, LFC, YZC and a couple other plays like SNDA, LASO, CTRP, SOHU, SINA, and EDU to name a few. As you can see, a trader always keeps score.

I might have lost the fight today, but I have dominated the battle thus far.

BTW- HANS is about to print $60 today.

Recommendation: Let things cool down before proceeding.

Long: China, doubling down and Java Monster.

Short: Over reacting

Disclaimer: I hope China hasn't decapitated any of your profits yet.

To add to Jeff's china list I also like CGEY as a speculative stock play.

JB

I will also through CAAS out here for another specualtive China play. Sorry to keep this posting up but these stocks can be so explosive.

JB

Kim,
I always find that the bigger the spreads in bid/ask, the lower the liquidity. I've pretty much given up playing anything with big spreads for the same reason Tim mentioned. It just causes you to pay too much to get in and get too little when you get out. Very difficult to make quick money on them.

I'm on Lipitor which as you all know is a cholesterol blocker. I'm hoping Jeff will be my beannie blocker.

JB,

Did you type in the first ticker symbol right? CGEY?

I can't get it to pull up...?

Thanks!

Krystal

CSUN, chinese solar, is too cheap and very springloaded.

Sorry about the wron symbol .. I can't type or spell ... the correct symbol is CCGY.

JB

A ten bagger? CSUN oct 12.50 calls @ .65 or less

CSUN trading @ 12.95

This is also a very speculative china solar play that is not yet profitable.

A ten bagger? CSUN oct 12.50 calls @ .65 or less. I dunno if this is gonna be a 10-bagger for us, mainly because we're a little late to the party. But if it can take out the old high, it could be a 10 bagger by expiration.

I wouldn't be going gungho with this one though. We are late to the party.

it is interesting to hear everyone's analysis on diff stocks like LVS and FSLR, etc.

Particularly LVS.

This brings up a question I have wondered, does it really matter?

I think the way we approach is likely the best way, by finding fairly convincing support/resistance areas for exit, in the long run I think this will be the bes edge.

HOWEVER, the logic in me also says, part of the fact that it contributes to success is the fact that we even drew a line to get out. I would like to see a study done, basically what we are doing is getting in at a point close to where we get out, and if that happens we lose less. Like I said it would be interesting to see a study done where people jump in still with the trend at random and set their stop out 2% below, and compare it to someone ALWAYS getting in at support;resistance.

I honestly couldn't tell you who would do better, I'd like to say our style has significant advantage, but it could be the mere fact that we basically get out quick when the trade goes against us.

Long story short, if you see support at 131 on LVS, set it there and take the trade and get out if it goes down, same with FSLR.

If I get in here I will keep track if it is successful or not, obviously there would need to be a huge study done.

Has anyone else thought about this?

Ben

Nice little surprise on ELON. Thanks for that one, Brett. Incidentally, I read an article yesterday that was talking about why the Canuck buck is doing so well. One of the reasons is minerals, and farming. And POT is into both. The prediction was that this sector will be hot for a couple of years still. So this re-test would be a good time to get in for the long haul.

I'm gonna have to break from the blog for a while. Beannie is out of control.

It's like being on a roadtrip with screaming kids in the backseat and they are too little to understand any discipline.

Michelle

Hahaha, Beanie you are a trip. How do you post this much to all of your blogs in one day? Dude you are relentless, can I hire you as a salesperson? I could use someone like you.... Unreal

p.s. I am by no means condoning the random entry with 2% stop, just brought it up for discussion, IMO there does seem to be something around the 130 areas on FSLR and LVS, as long as you have your line drawn, you have your risk defined, which is what you need. The downside I see is say, you take the trade now, you get out at a loss, it goes all the way down to "obvious" support, you take it there and it breaks you take a loss. That is 2 losses to the 1 you would have had, but how likely is that?

Probabilities are a funny thing. :-)

Ben

Michelle,

TOO FUNNY!

Ben,
Interesting thought. It's like the "Monkey throwing Darts" study on picking stocks. The monkey usually beat the analyst. Being part monkey myself the thought had crossed my mind, but I dismissed it as too much effort. I am... in a word... a lazy monkey. But you being a young, keen, enthusiastic monkey, should take that on as a school project (are you regretting telling us you're in college, yet?) maybe even your thesis. My suspicion is that if you were trading long term, your entry point matters less. That is how I play my retirement account which holds only stocks. Short term though, I think you'd see a big difference.

Go to it, man. Report back here every week. We'll sit here and drink lattes and eat expensive Kraft Dinners with Grey Poupon mustard, and pick it apart. After all, you're at college... what else is there to do?

I just saw an "INVESTools" commerical on CNBC. Then checked the chart SWIM. It could b/o of a sym triangle today. It also had a big jump at last earnings.

The jump may have been due to allot of IT employees holding short positions (heard that from a coach a few months back).

Calvin

Lis,
My target on ISRG is 263.


Michelle

Calvin,
Is it you that lives in SC? I live n Wilmington NC and am looking for a trading group. Do you know of any that are in the NC/SC area?

If it wasn't you than disregard this post. :-)

Cramer was bullish on SWIM on a recent lightening round.

VeroBarbara

Michelle,
How did you get $263 on ISRG? Thanks.
Mark

Michell and Mark,
Can you tell me how you came up with your targets. I must not be grasping that concept very well.
Thanks.

Jeff,

funny you mentioned HANS. After searching high and low, I finally found Java Monster(mean bean), and am about to take my first taste...................

Yuck!

No just kidding I liked it, I do. So now maybe I'll take down some HANS. finally I feel part of the club. Tomorrow moca loca.

Sarah

190 to 223/230. Measured from the break at 230. I didn't measure from the long candle because of the gaps and such. Technically, you could draw the triangle from there, but I try to be conservative. That's my take on it. I'm sure those that have better price pattern training can come up with more precise measurements.

Michelle

Laney...good memory....

Yes, I live in Greenville, SC. I don't know of any groups. I know one person living here that is in the Phd program, but he is pretty busy and I have not been unsuccessful in sharing ideas with him. This blog and IT commentary are my main stay.

You may want to check the IT user group listings.... I believe I saw a group in Charlotte. I did not check out your way.

Calvin

Jeff,
I went off at my local grocery store last night because they didn't have the Java Monster end cap in yet. They said, "you ranting about that again/"

I told them to look at HANS stock in morning. Then I went by at lunch today. They think I am the ORACLE AT BOISE. Anyway HANS through 62 with a bang!

Long: China, Canada, HANS, and ELON,

Short: LCAV, LAMR, and RESP

BTW, the pros are just killing the retail investor in the first hour of trading the last several sessions.

Cheers,
C4

Jeff, How do you find these great videos on YouTube? I enjoy them. You are very creative!! Please keep them coming.

C4

You are short RESP? What's your thinking?

C2,

“Hey Logan, How's the house going?”

Believe it or not, it isn’t yet. The neighborhood plat was recorded in August, we had our meeting with the builder, but one BIG piece remains: builder financing. Since the builder is carrying the loan, they are in the process of getting that secured. Builders, much like homebuyers, are having issues getting financed.

We are also feeling the pinch on the selling side of our current home. It has been on the market since mid August and have had only one person walk through it. We have reduced our price by 10%. Still no shoppers. From a square footage standpoint, we are the best in our area at our price range, still, no shoppers.

Luckily, time is on our side. It WILL be sold.

It is a sign of the times.

Thanks for asking.

PUTS up, CALLS down, except for HANS of course. On yet another down day, the only thing it seems I will be exiting today are my PUTS. This pattern soon will change. So the story goes. Bring on the next 1,000 trades.

That assbags use of the term "10 bagger" was about the most obnoxious thing I have ever read.
Stephen

Chris and Catherine,

I would do it as a Thesis if it was related to my major, haha. No, I don't regret saying I am in college, I can handle the jokes. ;-)

If I can figure out how to backtest on Ameritrade, but even then it would be difficult because it is not smart enough to determine major resistance and support(or maybe I'm not smart enough to write a program to figure it out).

It would be interesting to see if it is simply the act of defining where you get out or if the fact you chose a a better technical entry with whatever pattern that helped.

I really only care about finding the most effective way to make money but I guess being a "rebellious" college student I have to question these things, haha.

Man, the portfolio has been way down, then back up half way, now back down. Time to find some bearish plays.

Ben

RE: Papertrading

Has anyone ever successfully papertraded their system? I've tried three times now, and EVERY TIME my papertrades grow profitable like crazy and as soon as I get back in the market with real $$ I lose money--almost immediately--EVERY TIME! :{ I'm extrememely frustrated and wonder what insight any of y'all have to share on this.

Does anyone know how to get the advanced versus decliners for SPX and Dow on prophets?

Matt,
Emotions are easy to control when paper trading.

Michelle

Matt, I have never papertraded, however how many trades do you do on your paper trades. Did you do only a few trades? It could simply be statistics, aka bad luck to start with, however if each time it has happened I am guessing you are letting the emotion of real money at risk get to you and changing your system but maybe not aware of it.

You'd have to detail each and every successful vs. losing trade, which you should be doing anyways to find out the problem, but that's the only way we(prob someone more expert than me) could look and help you.

Ben

Matt,

I think most of us are familiar with that frustration. The thing is, paper trading can't teach you how to control emotion which, in my opinion, is the most difficult part of trading.

Paper trade to get familiar with how the software works or maybe try out new strategies, but before you can really learn, you have to put real money in. What I did was simply trade with very small positions and then very slowly and gradually increase position size in order to train myself how to handle emotions. I'm still in the process of increasing, still trading pretty small compared to my account size.

If you have a larger account, don't start out with the investools "risking 1%". I did that and what I found was that 1% was a whole lot more money than I was comfortable losing, so I had to back it off in order to learn. Decide how much total dollar amount you are comfortable losing on a trade and make that your risk point.

Does anyone trade EEM? Down 3.65 at 151.5-ish. Is it at REE?

VeroBarbara

Looks like I picked the wrong day to get back "all in" in my account. Down 10% today. Jeeeze.

Matt, we had the paper trading discussion a few months ago and everyone pretty much agreed that it's really easy to trade with no emotion when there's no money involved. Once it's your cash you find yourself wanting to push for the extra gains and holding on to the losers in the hopes that they'll bounce back.

Like me, today. After sitting with only 15% invested for a month and making almost 100%, I jumped all in yesterday on what seemed like good trades and I've lost virtually all of last month's gains in one day.

F bomb, f bomb, f bomb.

And I keep not getting into HANS because it never seems to get to REE.

F bomb

Chris & Catherine(who is it?)

I am assuming Chris, but that is just bad luck on the timing, which I am sure you know. I didn't add any additional positions from yesterday and today all of that is gone, however currently only 1 trade looks like it will be broken and that is IBM, so if I am following my rules I'll just keep holding.

I am slightly concerned at the overall action today, but then again we are in a bull market so until further notice i shouldn't care, if my trades have not broken.

Ben

You're right about the emotions. I get excited when I papertrade for two months (testing several dozen trades) and grow my account by 25%. I think to myself "maybe I can actually make this work!". Then I get pissed off when I transition to real $$, follow the exact same rules and immediately put on a killer losing streak!
I hear you on position sizing. In fact I'm sticking only to stock trades to minimize the sometime huge dollar swings options usually bring. I's uncanny how Mr Market seems to know exactly what I'm doing so that he can bite me in the A$$!

Chris, I'm sorry to hear that, man. That is a real difficult emotion for me as well when everything starts going well again and you get confidence and start taking more and more trades just before things turn around.

Keep your head, though, you have made some huge progress the last few months it seems to me so I have no doubt it will turn around for you once again.

Matt,

I agree with the guys here who are talking about emotion. That was my first thought when you described your paper trading results vs your real money results. I have only been actively trading since June... my paper trading account is up and my real money account is down.

The good thing is that I have IDENTIFIED my emotional mistakes (via trading journal entries, introspection, etc). However, IMO, the most dangerous side of dealing with emotion is not recognizing when it is indeed affecting you. I think that's what happened to me early on.

The other side of your results could be just "dumb luck" as another blogger mentioned.

So just check yo-self! :)

Chris,

I feel for you. My trick is on days like today, I do not look at the account numbers, I just trade the charts. On my TOS setup I block out the $$ amounts and focus on percentages. I've found I need to trick myself in order to protect myself from my own worst enemy......me.

As for HANS, I'm waiting for the lower risk entry, same for MLM. when it comes I'll be ready.

By the way you guys,

Who is this Beannie guy and why do we hate him so much (I mean, outside of the weird posts)?

And doesn't he read what is written about him and know that nobody wants him around? Hmmm...

Strange...

Cable finally back up and running, but who knows for how long...I've been sitting on this response to the Phantom Poet..

Phantom Poet your last words were impressive
But I question that you are manic-depressive
Poeming to me you seem obsessive
I wish you not to be so suppressive

Now I must make note a florist I’m not
Nor at school did I do any Pot
At me I see you take a shot
The truth is though that you know squat

Given your size some reconsideration
But to think you are long is an exaggeration
As I see it you need no explanation
What you need is some augmentation

Phantom you lurk in places remote
You are sneaky and quick just like a coyote
The banter with you yes I promote
But I will hunt you with tank, blackhawk and gun boat

I am looking for you so I can confront
For you, yes, I am on the hunt
As a matter of fact let me be blunt
This is now an all out manhunt

When I find you there will be a ceremony
We will reveal you are not hung like a pony
More like a limp macaroni
But alas, yes, still an OA crony

So the outlook for you is pretty bleak
Hit the gym and you won’t look so oblique
Your identity yes I still seek
I will find you , sweet cheeks…..

man, SNDA is setting up for a great entry point here. i'm all tapped out in my options account but have an order to add to my stock position at 36. come on down baby. love that low-volume pullback.

man, SNDA is setting up for a great entry point here. i'm all tapped out in my options account but have an order to add to my stock position at 36. come on down baby. love that low-volume pullback.

Krystal,
I don't know who Beannie is because I refuse to give his blog any traffic. Better to just ignore him and maybe he'll go away. He's like a bad rash.

Can someone direct me to Jeff's price pattern class? Thxs!

Jenerica

sorry for the double post. blogger troubles.

Ben,
Ya it's Chris, all right. If it was Catherine we'd probably be reading all kinds of posts about how great the market is and "Oh my gosh, what are we going to do with all the money we're making?" and "If we feed all of Africa, then it will only leave enough money to buy out Microsoft... but I want to buy Farrari, too... so I guess I'll just have to wait until tomorrow to make the next bajillion dollars."
So please please please don't tell her about LVS. The bag of hammers was getting rusty and I haven't had a tetnus shot for a while.

Matt, that's a perfect example. LVS didn't look all that good, but it was a great stock that was running away and if I didn't get into it yesterday it would never come back and all the people in Africa would have STARVED, for the love of god. So in I jumped.

Moron.

Tim you're right, I know all that stuff. As much as I'd like to keep my head, Catherine's more likely to keep my head in a jar on the fire mantel. But it was only one bonehead move. The rest are OK. Except IBM. Not so sure about that one. Thanks for the moral support.

Little excited, Tim? :-)


Thanks for the helpful reply, Calvin!

Hi all,
Tried to get this one on earlier today but internet problems caused delay.

FDX - Successful retest of H&S break.
Also broke year long channel.

Lis (Michelle & Mark)
Re: ISRG Target depends on time frame. I entered on AT break on 9/26. I measured from 8/28 low candle to 230 break for $25 target of $255. Be advised of earnings on 10/18.

Matt,
I agree that emotions is usually the culprit. I have found too that on paper trading I get better fills on my limit orders than I do on real fills.

Jeff/Sarah
Loving the DVD's!!!

Loretta

Tim-

I had the same experience with the IT/ risk 2% per trade idea being too much risk for me. The problem I have with the 2% risk idea, is that if you are getting in at support, risking 2% could lead you into taking a much bigger position than you should for diversification sake. I now just look at position sizing in terms of % of my total portfolio, which translates roughly into 5% per stock trade, 1% per option trade. This keeps the risk per trade closer to 1%. I can deal better emotionally with the downside at this level, and be more diversified in the process.

Peter

Laney,

That's funny! :) Seems like somebody said he was like a used car salesman, or something. I dunno.

Oh well. I don't think I'll be visiting his blog either. IMO, once an OA, always an OA. We just don't die...

A bad rash...that's hysterical!

Laney, yes, I just REALLY WANT EVERYONE TO LOOK AT SNDA!!!

(but don't buy it because i want the price to come on down to 36).

David S.

Someone posted the link for this ShadowTrader video on how to set up TOS to view market internals including advance/decline.

http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/bonusvid100406.html

I use this all the time now to help time entries and exits.

Sarah, too true. I can turn off the account totals but I wish Interactive brokers would stop making the negative stuff such a bright, blood red. My screen is awash in it today and it makes my heart pound to see such a mess.

Oh well, there was a time that a pounding heart was a good thing.

Oh, yeah, MTH. You tried to make me think you were breaking resistance this morning, but now look at you. Look at your pathetic little inverted hammer hanging man tombstone doji whatever you call it's going DOWN!

What happened to DIOD? It was moving up nicely.

thanks joel

Joel,
I love the Shadow! It has been quite an education for me as far as being able to determine market posture and what's going on "under the hood".

Tim,
I'm laughing at your post about MTH. If only screaming and crying really did work! We'd all be sending food to Africa with Catherine.

hahaha, Tim, that was really funny. Especially coming from you :)
Love it

Jesus, it just keeps getting worse, I'll be happy when the bell comes.

4k swing in the account today in the wrong direction, oh well, it happens. Could get it all back tomorrow, who knows, though I doubt it before the jobs report.

I am almost tempted on LVS, it is getting hammered because of another stocks earnings, meaning if LVS does well it goes right back up. I'll have to do some more research.

Ben

OI

I really like the strength it's showing in today's down market. It's my only profitable trade left.

Where can I find more information on interpreting volume? Any books that cover this in depth?

Tim

Thanks for the heads up on SNDA - I had to take down a couple of calls as it was bouncing off of 36.10.

Laney and Ryan,
thanks this morning for the help on the prophet charts

Ben,
I'm in the same boat as you are, watching the clock for the bell to ring so this evening I can regroup (have a few drinks) and make my money back tomorrow

how do all my calls go down and all my puts go up

greg
long island ny

WNR? I have been watching this go down for several weeks, but now I see a possible support level. I don't countertrend trade, but anyone else see a possible reversal?

Amy

I've always wondered if this is just my bad luck but there are occassional weeks when all my longs go down and shorts go up at the same time.

This is one of those weeks. GRMN, ZNH, WYNN down, SHLD, AZO, WHR, MLHR up to mention just a few. Creates a serious double whammy on the account. Yuck. I've bailed on all and am back to re-entry hunting. I think I'll wait until after the jobs report tomorrow before any new entries.

Jeff,
Just got the time to view the video. Very cool... but the end kind of grossed me out. Not because of the video, but because it reminds me of my account today. Just standing there spewing blood all over the battle field.

But you know what folks? We have all seen days like this before. It seems that every now and then virtually everything we've all been looking at does a quick little two step backwards and then skips off into the sunrise the next day.

As Sarah pointed out to me earlier... just look at each chart, pare off the ones that have broken their trend or pattern, and wait for the others to continue the way they should. I find a full bottle of tequila helps imeasurably too. Or Kim's "hidden" glass of wine that she insists isn't hidden at all.

Amy. I wish I'd been on to WNR a few weeks ago. It's a beaut!! What's a refiner doing going down like this? "Don't ask..." I guess. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck... I guess it's a duck.

Dare I even say it...RESP id finally moving. It must have had some Monster Java!

Amy,
I don't see anything but downtrending. What do you see?

Michelle

Jodi,
Just seeing if anyone is paying attention. I have been long RESP for some time now it was just pissing me off up until it started breaking out a few minutes ago. Now I kind of like it again.

Cheers,
C4

Amy,

I believe I have seen Raimo and Brett mention sometime last week, that they also thought it was at the bottom. You might want to go back and check, but I believe they both have mentioned it.

It looks to me like it's definitely sitting on some pretty strong support and could be about to turn up. Although I have to admit, going long is pretty aggressive.

Arty,

Gotcha. And clearly, you got me too :)

Laney- Shhh! You might scare it away!

Jodi, Arty,

I would love if RESP would continue on up. It would make all of us happy if it would soon break 50.

NUE showed strong support today. I'm in.

Look at BCSI showing strength at the end of the day!

VB
Couldn't agree with you more :)

Sorry! I thought that as soon as I posted the comment. Watch this bite me in the butt! :-)

Oh, I forgot...we're not supposed to get emotional about trading (couldn't help myself).

Loretta,
On ISRG, why the 8/28 candle? I bought at $235, and was figuring off the 9/23 candle, giving me $250. I'll defer to you, but I'd love to know if there is a "correct" target. You're right though, it depends on time, and mine is shorter. Does that make sense?
Mark

Michelle,

The only thing I see is a pause of the downward movement at an old level of support. It is also near a long term diagonal support line.

They weren’t kidding when they said that the Winter (ski season) is going to be here early this year! The Christmas Season came early, I saw THE NUTCRACKER today!!!!

OUCH!!!

my .02 about NUE (which means nothing after todays performance)

although its in an uptrend from mid august, I see it bouncing down off a longer term resistance from back in June, keeping me out of this trade completely

greg
long island ny

Well, I decided to hold onto IBM, I just really like the stock and it will rebound eventually...

JUST KIDDING!!! Did anyone believe me? IBM had a clear break so I exited, lost closer to 3% on that one though since it broke so much, oh well that happens.

crazy day, -700 overall to +150 again at the close, so I am pretty much flat since I took the last trades, which I guess isn't too bad, first thing is don't lose money, haha.

I am going to play some basketball and listen to music to forget for a while.

Ben

Mark,
Re: ISRG - I saw $230 as resistance and therefore as top of AT with bottom of AT at $205 on 8/28 candle.
Given these lines I entered on break of $230 on 9/26. Put those on your chart to visualize what I saw as the AT.

Amy,
Yeah, I can see some support, but until it stops going down..... well, I have enough stocks going down right now that are supposed to be calls (laughter.)

Michelle

Greg
Good point on NUE. Guess I overlooked. Wish me luck.

Clean Cups

hey its tara, here is the website i was talking about where i made the extra summer cash.......... the website is here

Jodi, your cups are a bit misty. No clean cups yet.

Ben, I think you may have bailed early on IBM. I show 115 as my exit point. Of course I didn't wait for 115 to get in. Thus the fire poker sticking out of my ample forehead.

Greg, I think NUE is too questionable for me to take right now. I can see it as both a call and a put. Maybe a strangle? Don't mention strangle around Catherine right now.

Good thing I'm in Victoria.

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  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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