Mid-Day Update

DOW ABOVE 14,000...AZO- Holding Resistance!

Yes, I am still bearish on AZO. Until it proves me wrong, I have no reason to be anything else. The market has been cruising higher, and AZO is flat. That accounts for something, right?

I've highlighted it's recent trading range to illustrate it's reluctance to move higher. If the market catches some profit taking, AZO will respond. If not, I'll cut it loose.

Stay tuned.

Recommendation: It's just that simple.

Long: K.I.S.S.

Short: AZO, of course

Disclaimer: I write this in response to some of the comments about this trade.

Thanks everyone for the support! Jeff thanks for the outline on GRMN too. Yes, I did stick to my plan and yes I understand this more and more but &#$&$ I am getting tired of ALWAYS getting hit but the usual. It is the frequency of the unusual hitting us that has us so frustrated. We were just getting our footing again and POW! Pam had the same reaction. I left a message for Jeff that it just appears the trading Gods are against us (stole that from Chris). I know I need to just get back on the horse that threw me but a bit cautious, again. It is not just this trade. I reviewed all my trades from this year yesterday and found such improvement in entries and getting better on exits. The one thing that stood out was the losses due to strange uncontrolled events. While this was not a big capital loss it was a big profit loss for my account. Tim, you were a genius!

I have to find some winners here soon.


GARMIN has pissed all over us today. NOT HAPPY RAIMO.

But now that Jeff has sold and dissed the stock, I am going to take a stand against Jeff and against all odds, guns a blazing, and hold GRMN and wait for it to go to $125 before I sell.

Does anyone want to Fantasy Trade with me??

Freakin Garmin....a pox on you and your ancestors..

Raimo, I am with you on GRMN all but the getting in again part. A pox on them is just the beginning.

My target on GRMN was $125 also, but in light of Jeff and Eric continuing to reiterate that it isn't a bad thing to take profits a little quicker in this environment, I decided I would take my profits if it hit $120. Especially since I had the October options. I'm finally starting to build my account back up so I sold it last Thursday when it hit $120 for the second time.


Last Friday I sold my October 80 GRMN Calls for a great profit. Thanks for all your help on that one. Since I do still own calls in NVT and NOK, I feel really smart (or lucky) this morning. When you own option positions in 40 stocks, you are bound to get lucky sometime.

Jim in Des Moines


You are going to hold?

This should be some awesome dialogue....

What is your take on it from here, aside from it sitting at old resistance?

Looks like BIDU is not participating. Is this stock done? What say you Option Addicts.

ACH is working out well so far for me.:-)


I sold GRMN on 9/26 with a huge gain- thanks to all of you for helping me keep my head on straight during the wait.
Any thoughts on ISRG?

good morning!
I told myself about a month ago that I wouldn't trade GRMN again! Maybe I'll get some on the way down! DRYS and POT have been very good but frustrated with CROX?! I guess I need to be more patient(sp)(san diego city school).
Thanks for all the great info Jeff!! Love the Mean Bean and Big Black. I may put my espresso maker away...not yet!
Have a great day trading!
scott aka tallred


BIDU,,,is just pulling back to a fib level before it runs again,,,nice flag forming,,get ready


Love the video. The Shining is one of the all time scariest movies, in my opinion.

Below is another scene from the movie depicting GRMN's demise.


GRMN's action today makes me understand why people jump out of Wall Street windows. I was up over 200% on Friday and I sold it for a whopping $27.50 today. Woo-hoo! A half tank of gas.

The good news is, there are more trades to be had and more money to make.

Oh, and Jeff, I also got out of HANS for a 232% profit. That makes the GRMN sting a little easier to take, so thanks.:-)

It was profit loss for me, too. If it was capital loss, I would be really upset.

Glad you're feeling better. :-)

Jeff, why is my SHV down? Just kidding.

Loving FCRX today.

SIGM is setting up a good entry if it hold to the close.

Joel R.

Sorry, that was suppose to be FCX. Duh.

Joel R.


I have the upper hand on this buddy ....

1)you are my mentor and instructor
2)If i am right, good for me
3)If I am wrong, I'll blame you!!!!

However, I am no stinking weasel, so I guess I need to do better than that. You are looking for me to come up with some type of analytical thought process I am sure that justifies my postion. Perhaps a well thought out analysis utilizing sound trading practices and techiniqus learned over the years? Is that what you expect?

Or, Can I just claim "mushy brain", an apparant ailment of other bloggers??

Thanks Laney and yes I did have a small capital loss. I have been trading very small so a $1200 profit was great but now is a $200 loss which is not. How do you all get 200% and greater? Is that because you go OTM? I was ITM for GRMN and was closing in on 100% which is great for me.

DSX breaking out today on heavy volume.

Somebody light a fire under GRMN again, will ya?



That made my day.


You are in a zone lately, so I just had to get some insight.

Truth is, I know that fundamentally this could kill the stock, depending on how bad NOK wants to "give it" to them. But technically, I don't doubt it could rise. I know there are a few out there that think that there is still some gas in the tank, but what could get it to move like it was moving pre-news catastrophe?

My argument is that I don't believe it can move nearly as much as it was.

Anyone want to comment?

ISRG, I got in when I saw it break out of its triangle (fake-out). However, I see a new support level forming at 230ish which seems to be holding. That is my take on it.



For crying out loud, how long are you going to keep us in suspense....

How did the tryouts go?

(Or did you already post about that, and I missed it?)


Bob(and Pam),

I feel your pain on GRMN. I've been there and know how it feels. Jeff even wrote a post about me because my trade on IPS kick me in the rear so hard(back in the spring). I felt terrible,but it was just one of those unforeseen events as in GRMN. These are defining moments as a trader. I had the wind knocked out of me,but by the next day it was over , gone and on to the next trade. When I looked back where I was just a few short months ago, ready to give up and where I am now, shows anything can happen. Just stick with it. It only takes one good trade to change everything. the truth is my win/loss record is not very good. However a few big winners have grown my account faster than I could have ever imagined.

BTW, anyone else like NILE. pretty basic, flag,bounce call what you like,its going up.


I'm in NILE. Got in when it originally broke out, so I'm down a little bit now.

I almost got out on Friday where it closed just below my line in the sand, but I wanted to see today's price action before I did anything, and I'm glad I waited!

My price target on this one is about $115. Are you in it? What's your price target?


waiting for GAP to confirm.

Anybody else see RIMM at REE point as well as AMZN?


Anyone think this is a bounce in SOHU?


Grmn put up a set of of orange caution cones around my zone! Traders beware!

Garmin clearly broke a strong diag support line, and with reduclous volume today. BUT....I do have a HZ support line at $105ish, that has held...and I would believe that you could argue resistance at $108. A could also draw in a diag support line and show that is is above that line as well, though I would admit it is a stretch. My entry today was with an exit on a close below $105..and I will stick to my plan. If todays hammer can confirm tomorrow, I will certainly feel a lot better...but todays volume does bother me.

Downgrades....we've seen them before with littel affect on a stock. I'll stick with the charts over news and downgrades..

GRMN.....I give it until a close below $105 before confirm it a losing trade.


The DOW touched 1400 in July and promptly plummeted precipitating a lengthy sell off. As of 3:18 p.m. it appears it will close above 1400 but on average volume (looking at diamonds). This plus watching a serious boatload of profit disappear on GRMN has me jittery.

Any words of wisdom? I planning on taking profits on WYNN, ACH and setting stops tight on the rest.

Earnings on RIMM in a couple of days. Manage your risk. I've been back in RIMM since $85. I'm holding one contract over earnings but that's all.

Joel R.


Let's put it this way, I didn't make it. The team wasn't really "hiring" from what I understood.

I will have to reserve my talents for local men's leagues, and the pro-am tournament every summer.


You don't suck, you rock. I'd pick you to be on my team any day Jeff :) They don't know what they were missing.

Sarah, thanks I am not down or out but frustrated. Remember ORBC? That was my first real trade after IT education. Yep, I got hit with the AMEX deal. Strange things like that have been wiping out my profits from the beginning. I follow the rules get the right stocks at the right entry and get blindsided. It has just happened too many times. Pretty soon it will be don't trade what Bob trades or this could happen to you!

I got back into AZO. I felt weird about exiting on Friday because it hadn't really gone against me, and Jeff's little reinforcement of that gave me even more reason to take a look.

Got back in at $10 less than I sold for on Friday, so it's like I never left, plus an extra $10 to boot.

I also got a put on IYR. Looks like it's pegged at horizontal and diagonal resistance to me. I could be wrong but I'm in right at my exit.

Got a call on ADSK this morning as it conveniently opened up at 48.50. I'd been waiting for that.

Still have CNQ. Could a stock move any slower??

REFR- good b.o. w/great volume. See it as stock purchase due to lower liquidity and stock price.


Five words...

They're not ready for you!

My experience with stocks like this is to day trade them. To me, GRMN will now be in this tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, volume will slow down and then the stock will kind of flat-line for a bit.

I just day traded it on a 1 minute chart. Buying off the low in the 10 o'clock area. Moved my stop up to 105.90 when the first low was made about 45 minutes later. then moved my stop up to 107 when the next low was made at 11:30ish. Took the sting out of having my NVT Jan 80's drop to a buck on the takeover.

Sarah, I joined the IPS club. I remember when it happened. Just keep movin on, there are so many great set-ups to make money.



I entered NILE today for a swing trade. A conservative target for me is 105,but I'll take 115. Just looking for NILE to make its next higher high.

I'm not a fan of spreads, but take a look at an Oct. Iron Condor on FSLR. Puts 120/115, Calls 145/150 for a net credit of 4.50ish. That's .50 of risk for 4.50 in profit. FSLR does like to move. But these options are very expensive.

Just a thought.

Joel R.

Jeff first off all, great job for trying out, it takes guts!

What else takes guts is this. I got the shit kicked out of me on GRMN just like evryone else, except for this. I am with ole Raimo here.

My bad technical take on adding positions today was I saw a breakout through 105 this morning on ridicules volume. Besides, Mrket is at all time highs.

I will have more on this later.

Raimo I guess that means we will be on the same fantasy team.

Oh and I add positions every time HANS dips. And then I drink a Java Monster.


You guys are too nice.

The newspapers all said the same thing heading into the try outs. They had a full roster, and were looking to generate some press. I wouldn't be surprised to see a practice squad assembled to scrimmage against the team, out of all this. Who knows, maybe I'll catch an invite?

Sorry, my brain is mushy. I had the $105 put instead of the $115 put plugged into TOS. That makes the credit $2.40. So about 1/1 on the risk/reward. Still, not bad for a spread.

Joel R.

PCLN, setting up nice Asc triangle. IBM broke out today but not enough volume. I'll watch it tomorrow.


Out of AZO.... Even though I still see this as a bearish opportunity, and I feel it in my gut, I am doing my best to follow my rules. In the past, I have had exits in place and ignored them based upon what I "felt" would happen. Crossed my line in the sand so I cut it loose. Figured I will watch for a re-entry.


I'm with you. CNQ is sure taking its sweet time...meanwhile, time is steadily decaying away...

Raimo, C4,

Is there room for a third on that fantasy team? I had a sell order in on GRMN at the close and then cancelled it. My line in the sand was about 105 and it closed above that so my rules had not been violated. If I am wrong, at least I will crash and burn with a couple of passengers!

I'm in NILE also, Target = $115.

I hope hanging on to GRMN pays off like hanging on to ELON did. Here's hoping those rumors of counteroffer excite buyers. Well lets at least hope that the fear goes away when people realize GRMN is fine and will either.

1) Ride out its current multi-year deal with NVT, while looking for an alternative.

2) NOK will hold to its word that NVT will continue to supply its current companies.


3) GRMN will buy NVT themselves.

GRMN will be fine under any of the above circumstances (lack of fear from 1 & 2, or possible excitement from 3)

I added to my position in GRMN a little below $105, so I guess I'll climb out on that limb too. If it closes below $105 though, I'll bounce. I had sure hoped it would recoup much more of its loss today though.

James H.

Bob and (Pam) Laney and all of the other Garmniners out there,

Will we live to trade another day?

I think yes.

It seemed as though I was on the right side of every GAP up since August 16th. And 2 or 3 GAP downs right before that. I was just telling Brett on Thursday I wanted to sell every thing in my account and just enjoy my gains.

Well, we can't do that. We follow our rules, our trading strategies and we enjoy the GAPs up togheter and lick each others' wounds on the way down.

Heads UP! charging forward (Drinking a BIG BLACK)!

Oh my last to big movers GRMN, WCC OUCH!


One more recruit and we have a full fantasy team. Let's hope we are not the Washington Generals of Trading!

James H.,

I hung on to ELON, too. On Friday it did indeed break the trendline that I had drawn in, but it's done that before in the past several months and gotten right back on course, so I decided to stay in...Glad I did.

I'm definitely interested in being on a fantasy trading team...that is, if you don't mind a newbie! :)


James and Krystal,

I dumped ELON on Friday. I saw this as a failed triangle breakout, on huge volume. And also a horizontal support break. It did bounce back today, but on lighter volume....

Although it may make its way back up, I was trading this purely as a pattern trade. Am I seeing this correctly? Anybody else have opinions on this one? Jeff?? Just looking to see if my thought process is on track or not.



It (ELON) bounced back up off the 50 day MA well, and closed back above the 30 day MA today. So I'm content for now, but I'm still wary of the upcoming resistance. If it doesn't move up pretty quickly, or if it starts to turn down again, I'm going to get out fairly quickly. As Brett said, its already made a lower low, if I see a lower high, I'm gone.

James H.

I got "stuck" in ELON because I couldn't get to the computer on Friday. Luckily, it went my way today and I got back what I lost and got out.

I like your insight into GRMN and it will probably go up because I got out. (That happens to me with CROX, too. It's my kryptonite!:))

I love your picture, it makes me smile everytime I see it.

Bummer. At the very least be happy that you can actually dribble and run simultaneously. *grin*

I don't think you read it wrong. With the MA right below my line in the sand on Friday, and the fact that people seemed to be taking profits across the board (or at least in a lot of growth stocks) for end-of-the month/quarter, I decided to fudge a bit. It seems to have worked ok so far, and while I admit technically I probably didn't make the proper choice, this stock has bounced off its MA well before. I saw the same selloff happen in many stocks though (to a lesser degree), which made me a little more confident that it wasn't a problem with the stock.

So, long story short, I decided to wait until today to see if it bounced back up off the MA. Hopefully it keeps going up, if not I'll bail quickly.

James H.

I must say, my baby ELON has me perplexed today.

I even had a put play on early today and I really should have kept it, since the stock was below resistance all day long.

However, I did go long the stock again for a couple of reasons. First, the inverse head and shoulders looks ready to erupt tomorrow and I didn't want to wait. Second, The stock is so unbelievable if you look at the trend and volume patterns. Third, today showed me that the laughable selling the past 2 sessions was not due to the stock's fundamentals, and i truly believe the stock might be back.

Today was a horrible day all around. The GRMN deal got me shaky early and I was not comfortable trading all day long. I spent the entire afternoon getting my bearings and making sure when I wake up tomorrow I'm positioned the way I want to be so I can forget today and move forward. I haven't had a bad day in awhile and I hope this one is behind me.

What a shame to waste such a huge market day. Anyway, I'm taking the night off. No CNBC, no blog, no charting. Just going to try and shake it all off and come back strong tomorrow. Even the 'pros' can have a terrible day, and I guess I was due. I simply cannot let it linger beyond this afternoon. As I always say here, every day is another day to make unlimited profits.

Have a great night, all.

Nice song choice Jeff... You rock!!! :-)

What a day... sweet, sweet, sweet! (that names it all!)

BTW: When and where is the weekly meeting for option addicts? I need help!



I read several articles today on GRMN. I wouldn't be surprised to see GRMN make a bid on NVT, but either way, they will definitely be working quickly (and probably already have been since the NOK-NVT news isn't new, just official).

If they don't make a bid, I am sure they will be locking up some long term contracts rather quickly (hopefully without much extra cost).

HOWEVER, I do agree with Jeff that the stock is probably not going to move upward as fast as it did (unless perhaps - it extends a bid on NVT also). I sure wouldn't mind seeing it get back its loss quickly.

CTSH is looking good here also, it just got over old supp/res and finally closed back above its 200 day MA. I saw somebody else mention it earlier, and I've been watching it for days to see if it got over 82. I like it here.

James H.

clean cups


Are you a Pro? What exactly does that mean, by your definition? I am curious since I want to trade professionally, but don't know which fund would hire me.


GRMN - this morning Naked Puts for $3.80 Oct 100s. With earnings later this month - I'm letting the Theta work itself out. Heck, the worst case, (dropping below $100) owning GRMN at $96.20 and placing Nov Covered Calls. So I sold Naked on the news with a profit potential of 19% in 3 weeks ($3.80 divided by a $20 margin). Go GRMN!

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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