A Must Read!
Hey Jeff - I just got caught up with the last weeks worth of blog postings... I have an idea to bounce off of you: It might be a good idea to remind fellow bloggers that just because you (and several others on the blog) trade a certain style, doesn't mean that it will fit with everyone's personal style. I have met a lot of people through investools and almost everyone I talk to says they are a short term trader and they pretty much all know of you, your style and your blog (you are so popular!)... however, after talking in greater detail with some of these folks, it is often the case that their personalities and style don't really mesh with the way you do things... They see a potential setup on your blog and just go full steam a head and buy it without taking ownership and responsibility. Then when it fails cause they don't know what they are doing they are ready to throw in the towel...
Although I am rather new to investools (started in November) I have hit it pretty hard... The education was straight forward, it made sense and I got through all the PHD stuff in about a 3 weeks. I am very impatient and determined to make trading work, but when I first started, I did terrible! I understood everything you did and the concepts behind it all, I could read the charts and had a decent grip on getting in and out at the right time... However, it turned out that I was more impatient than I thought... I couldn't wait several days or a week... I needed to see things faster.... Then I got into playing index options and daily price movements. Since I started with this strategy I not only recovered all of my losses from my initial mess ups, I am up 40% on my original account balance... and I was able to do this in a month and a half.... I have customized my system and am continuously tweaking it and am confident that it is only a matter of time (target is the end of the year) before I will be trading for a living...
The point to this short novel is that although someone may be determined and they work really hard, it doesn't guarantee that your system will be ideal for them.... In my case I was able to learn a great deal from you, your blog, etc and develop my own game plan based on the type of person I am... I know a lot of people who just go to your blog to get trades.. and those are the people that I talk to who are thinking about giving up now... I know you mention this type of thing a lot in your blog but it might be worth mentioning again to drive the point home and to give out some "tough love"... There are no guarantees and if people don't take responsibility and ownership to what they are doing they should expect to fail... Of course that applies to everything in life, but especially trading!
Sorry for the lengthy email... After my 40% gain this morning and reading your blog, I felt the need to write you... :)
Thanks again for everything you do - too bad we missed each other when I was out there a couple of weeks ago... maybe I will catch you next time.
Justin
Recommendation: He is absolutley right. Remember folks, this blog is an insight to how I trade and what I see. My trading style is not for the faint of heart, nor is it a place that guarantees results. While I have done pretty well, these ideas I share don't always resonate within the hearts of all my readers. I see this as a place to learn a few things, catch a few ideas, and have an ear that listens to questions or comments of what others are experiencing out of the market.
Long: Justin's trading system....as long as I can show up for your trades and not have to do any work yet get your exact same results!
Short: Options? Or do I want to be a buyer after all this?
Justin,
I read your email that Jeff posted today. I am really interested in learning about index option trading. Could you please point me in the right direction as to where you learned more on this subject. I would really appreciate any info you could give me.
Thanks.
Posted by Anu | 3/13/2007 05:49:00 PM
Stacy A. teaches this through Investools live at Adv Options events and on the DVDs from the Mega Events. In my very limited experience (trading some and taking to Stacy) this is not for the weak of heart or those that cannot be at the PC to monitor the trade. I am just re-working my rules so I would be interested too.
Bob H.
CA
Posted by Anonymous | 3/13/2007 06:22:00 PM
Buy the Vegas DVD set. Stacy Acevedo teaches the class there. She also covered it at our Adv. Options workshop recently, where we watched her pull some $30k out of the market in one day.
Posted by Anonymous | 3/13/2007 07:40:00 PM
Jeff,
First of all, thank you for not publishing my e-mail and for not asking me for my trading rules. And Mike, thank you for putting yourself out there for all of us to see. I guarantee that all of us are now starting to refine our trading rules in fear that Jeff will ask us next!! For those of you not in the know, I sent a whining e-mail to Jeff about expected returns on our education. I did that in the evening when I was tired and had lost money. Now I am wide awake and still have lost money...LOL. I have since apologized to Jeff and he was gracious enough to not kick me off the blog and to encouraged me to vent. I guess my point is to realize that trading alone at home does not have to be a lonely event. The last two posts have been enlightening and disturbing. We all do not know each other, our education level, our commitment or our financial status and therefor can not evaluate each others success or lack thereof. What I do know is that this venue allows me to refute or re-affirm my aspirations to be a successful trader. I learn more from my mistakes than I do from my successes. I learn as much from the published mistakes and successes on this blog. These last 2 weeks, I am assuming we all made some big mistakes. I certainly did. I learned enough to protect myself today and made money today. If I had not totally crashed on Black Tuesday I would have not been in the frame of mind to protect my positions. In the back of my trading journal, I now add any suggestions that the bloggers have that make sense and I will incorporate them into my trading style as I develop. We all have this venue and Jeff to thank for that. I would like to ask that as we all become more skilled at investing that we make a committment to this blog, and to our fellow bloggers to continue to improve and give back to those new to the blog. I still am having a lot of fun doing this and my wife is very thankful that I do not bother her every day until market close (ok, then I have to check the after hours trading and this blog before I can start vacuuming everything!), I know this is long, but if I never got good advise on an option play and only realized through this blog that there are others in the same struggle to advance their skills, advance their control of their financial future, and realize their mistakes and make them public, I have learned more than any classroom could have provided. I just wish I was in Mexico with Chris and Catherine, sipping drinks with umbrellas in them and being in a cash position. Just think of their faces when they get home and see what has happened in the last two weeks!!
Until next time.
Sean M.
CA
Posted by Anonymous | 3/13/2007 09:05:00 PM
I, too, am very interested in the "Stacy" strategy of working with the SPX....I'm currently getting familiar with the SPY as a baby step...I studied Stacy's presentation in Vegas, and found that there were some points that she alluded to, but was not very specific in the actual steps taken.
Trading the SPY on these last 2 big down days has been very profitable for me, but I'd like to have a few more rules in place before advancing to the SPX, so I'd love to read more from those doing it.
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 06:22:00 AM
Hey Jeff:
Was there no marketcast yesterday afternoon?
David S
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 06:59:00 AM
Some of you I am sure are wondering from my previous post, "why no stops"?? I don't use stops since I am home all day and do nothing but trade. I have my exits and rules, and have found for me that intra-day movement often was hitting my stops, costing me money. So now I wait for the closing prices at the end of the day...I am fortunate that I am home all day to watch my trades. I was simply foolish in hasty departure for Canada, and stupidly let my trades ride...
Lesson...Learned...
Posted by Raimo | 3/14/2007 07:29:00 AM
I first learned about the concept of index options at the very first stocks course I went to - when I asked all the instructors what they did and how they traded almost every one of them told me "index options" - so that sparked my interest.
Then I listened to Stacey A. From there I began experimenting, paper trading and backtesting like crazy. I took what others said and presented about and made my own little remix to it - Something that I am 100% comfortable with.
Like others have mentioned, this strategy can really mess with your head and test your ability to have faith in your system (thats why backtesting is so important). Starting with the QQQQ or SPY is a good idea. Mainly to get a feel for how the charts move and to test your indicators.
I only trade the OEX, SPX, RUT and sometimes the NDX. I hate paper trading too, but with this strategy I feel it is a must...
I have spent countless hours reading, watching, learning, talking, testing, etc in order to create my current system and I still have a LONG way to go... so I dont want people to think it is easy and think they can jump right in after watching a DVD of Stacey... But, once you do get a grip on how it works, things can happen fast...
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 07:39:00 AM
I too have spent countless hours working on Stacy's type system and have mainly paper traded as I refine my rules. Now that I have watched the DVD three times and seen her live twice it is coming together more. There are a lot of details that are not provided that need to be filled by your style. At this point my biggest problem is other business that takes me away from the computer like yesterday! I have backtested a couple of systems and as Stacy just introduced using the market forecast on the chart (new) I am adding that in and will be backtesting with this addition and so far it looks promising.
Bob H.
CA
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 08:24:00 AM
Jeff,
is there a price patterns list for today?
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 09:27:00 AM
Good question Brett! Are you treating?
JK
Posted by Option Addict | 3/14/2007 09:44:00 AM
Hi All,
When trading the indexes and I'm including SPY, DIA, QQQQ, amd IWM please note that there is ALOT of daily movement that can really freak you out IF YOU ARE WATCHING YOUR ACCOUNT BALANCE instead of the chart. On the recent down cycle from last week I traded the OEX. It moved 21.27 points from the top to the bottom. I got 14.28 points of that move for 67% of the move. Stacey typically trades ONE thing...the SPX. She said at one class to get good at ONE thing and you will be fine. After a year or so of trading I FINALLY agree. You don't have to get the whole move or even 67% of the move. Just part of it is great. They all do not have to be home runs. Paper trading is great but remember it's not real. You cannot paper trade and learn to trade. Your emotions are what you have to deal with. Look at this this way. Stacey has said she sometimes trades 300 contracts at a time of the SPX. That is A BUNCH of money. Sometimes $250,000+ in one trade. If you get between the spread you WILL BE red somewhere between $50k and $60k right at the start. This is not for the faint of heart. But it is all about risk and being able to control your emotions. Start small....DIA or SPY or QQQQ. But trade only one of these. Get good at one and you will be fine. I have tried and tried and tried to trade different stocks and have maybe 6-8 trades going at once. I got tired of getting stopped out on news or sympathy moves from another company. I had rather focus on one ETF or index and just do larger positions and then you can keep up with it better. Use 2hr, 1 hr, 30 minute and 10 minute charts to help time entry and exits. You still won't get it all but part of a move will make you profitable. BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO FIND WHAT WORKS FOR YOU!!!!! AND DON'T BE AFRAID TO TAKE PROFITS!!! You can always get back in on a bounce or retracement.
Doug
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 01:17:00 PM
Guys,
Stacy's stratgey is nothing but buying calls and puts on an intraday basis. You need to be good at normal short term directional trades before you get in to intraday trades. My current success rate is 33% but i get into profit on almost 80% of trades and then loose most it back while trying to figure out stops.
What I am working on to get better on directional trades is to just set a profit target like $1 gain per trade and then just get out.
If I can do that at better then 60% of my trades I am good to go. But the stop needs to be at $1 or less.
I have been playing with OCO orders to get better at that. My struggles are arround how to let the winner run and not let them become looser again but sometime they retrace back to lower then purchase price because of volatility, time decay etc.
Who said options were easy :-(
My biggest confidence boost came on 2/27 when the market crashed and I was able to systematically step out of the market and even did some day trades to end the day in positive.
It is all a matter of gaining confidence and beleiving in you ablities
Mahmood
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 01:51:00 PM
I have heard much about the video by Stacey A at Mega Trends in this column. Does anyone know where to purchase it? I know these are for sale, but where?
Thanks in advance,
Rick
Posted by Anonymous | 3/14/2007 04:03:00 PM