Jeff,

welcome to the land of GOOG puts. I played the double top breakdown (as you well know) and thought i was in big trouble today when the upgrade came and GOOG was trading to $464 in the premarket. Thankfully, 1) i've been through this before and 2) i had a nice channel drawn and today's high was the 3rd touchpoint on the upper line. 3 touches on the high and 3 touches on the low = a nice downtrend in place.

you forgot about SNDK. beautiful bounce down off upper trendline.

Brett, nice to see you back on the blog!

Jeff, I'm feeling more like a bear everyday! Thankfully the puts are starting to make me some money...slowly, but hopefully steadily.

I took the anticipatory trade with Adobe. It's winding up nicely and so I gave it some time to make the move. WHAT ABOUT EARNINGS?? Do you think this will affect the trade?

Gary
Boston

Gary,
GET OUT MAN!!!! Oh, excuse me I didn't mean to yell. I've been burned several times on earnings that came out all rosy and the stock tanked. It is completely unpredictable what will happen, regardless of how the earnings come out. Unless you've done a LOT of research, and are completely convinced that whatever your research indicates is not already priced into the stock... GET OUT!!! Options are cheap enough that you can get out for a couple of days and then get back in if there are no aftershocks.

This is the voice of experience.
Chris and Catherine... we listen.

Yeah, what is the incentive of holding over earnings? Perhaps this is why the stock isn't moving, is everyone is on the sidelines until they report? Unless you work for the company and know the financial conditions, and have the working crystal ball that will tell you how each buyer and seller in the stock will react....resist temptation. Thanks C&C.

Thanks C & C - I have several hundred dollars less in my account from holding over earnings, so I was planning on getting out before. BUT...I remember doing the same thing and missing out on a great trade about a month ago that was also heavily talked about on the blog (MICC) and missed out on quite a hefty return.

So Jeff, thanks for taking the time and reassuring me that even an expert Options Trader is skeptical of this one.

PLEASE bring back that crystal ball!!!!

Thanks again for everyone's input and support on here. I've got some fresh rules that I'm going to stick to this time so here's to some nice short selling on HOG, ADBE, NFLX and long on PCP and APKT!!

Gary

Jeff and everyone, what price target do you have for CME? Do you expect it to reach the 510 level? Lower? Also, are you seeing a descending triangle with MA? If so, do you wait for the 99.50 level to be penetrated to the downside as confirmation? Thanks, Steve, MA.

On CME, you got like where it just came from.
Other good shorts- OMG and CAL

Hey Jeff:

With todays moves should we move to the bullish side of things or does anybody think this could be a trap?
Any thoughts?

David S

TRAP, I would love to see the lows tested at least once. The Bearishness can't be gone in a week, can it?

I agree, it's a trap. Zoom in on a chart of the Dow from May of last year. There was a lot of similar activity. Big drop in the Dow followed by 1-200 point moves up and then back down. I got whip-sawed out of a bunch of trades back then. Hmmm, Deja Vu.

Joel R.
California