GS has resumed the uptrend and could offer a nice entry point for anyone bullish.

Gary

I gotta be honest here, I had imagined a totally different response with the first comment left on this post.

I like how quickly we move on!

An thoughts about the fed announcement due out soon?

More importantly, thoughts on how the market will react?

I'm personally hoping for a big move. The direction doesn't really matter, I'm setup in both directions...this time.

Jeff, as you were saying how this blog is a reflection of you, I saw the goofy looking dude in the upper right hand corner of my screen and kept laughing every time I read the works “me” or “my.”

The biggest laugh was the Jersey State Bird!

Thank you!

I’m not concerned about what the Fed is going to say. What could they really say that we as traders don’t already know? For some reason, I don’t see much of a move in either direction. Maybe because I too, like Strat, am set up for an up tick or down turn and am properly positioned. Bring it on!

Dang, these price movements after the announcement are just crazy....

which way will i go , which way will i go....

Its fun to watch irrational behavior.

Apparently nowhere.

I almost strangled (the trading strategy that is) the SPY before the announcement. Now I'm glad I didn't pull the trigger.

I was secretly hoping for an all time high on the S&P today.

Joel R.
California

John,

Are you referring to my artwork, or disgruntled traders?

;)

Jeff

For the first time, I was prepared for the announcement. Like Strat and John, I was ready for anything. Thanks for the reminders to properly size my trades and stay diversified.

Amy
Long: BNI, ARW, TSO, and MSM
Short: PFCB

This comment has been removed by the author.

Jeff,I totally agree with what you wrote.I work in RealEstate and know
how unproductive and poisonous negativity can be in work and in life.Your words have never been truer.Thank you for sharing your views, experience and guidance.
I'm POSITIVELY greatful

Jeff

Venting sometimes helps, glad to see you've moved on as well.

Everyone has their reasons for coming here. I suspect I'm in the majority group.

I come here to try and become better at trading.

I'm still down in my initial investment account. But I'm clawing my way back slowly.

I just wanted to say thanks.

I find what you're doing here to be incredibly generous. And more help than you know, to those of us out here still working hard to become successful.

As I become better, I hope to eventually contribute to the blog and repay those who have helped me.

Jeff

I have to say ... the artwork/pictures on this site are certainly worth the trip.

Thanks for your post Jeff K.... I was over it earlier today ... You slam dunked it ... (in honor of GState :) Thanks for that! You have 100% support FOR the positive from this OA!

Jeff, Bob S, and everyone else..

I don't think Bob S. had intent to be negative. He was merely raising a point, and for some, it may be accurate, for others, not so.

He did not offend me. A new trader myself (almost 2 years), I like the blog for the interaction, tips, extra eyes, Bretts jokes and Jeffs silly pictures. And though I can, and do, pick my own stocks to trade, I'll take advantage of any advice, any tip, any edge I can get regradless of how in-experienced or experienced I am when compared to others here.

It's all good stuff, especially GS......

Bob R,

You are right. No attack on Bob S here, this is why I didn't use his name at all. I'm more or less trying to attack the idea of bringing it here on the blog. I get a boatload of e-mails and a fair share of personal attacks, I just hate to see it done to each other in this venue.

We all need to be reminded that this business we are in has only one customer...ourselves. We cannot trade sucessfully with a knife in our back...and if one is there, it is self inserted. If it is self inserted, neither Jeff, Eric, the chair thrower, Tim Knight or anyone else we get tips and ideas from can be blamed if we take an idea and either trade it wrong or it goes south on us.
IE., Don't piss Jeff off so much that he has to write an epistle and skip the charts!
Regards
Don

Jeff,

If you are asking what I am referencing with the Jersey State Bird, it would be the link to the artwork.

Some puts today got an unneeded boost from the afternoon rally. Specifically, AVY. Although, since it has moved slightly up and more sideways since breaking out of the descending triangle, today’s action puts it right at the horizontal resistance that was created by the descending triangle. I can give it one more days or will it be out with the old, in with the new… Oh, the internal debate. Does anyone else see the price action and today’s volume as a pattern breakdown?

I meant downsloping resistance on AVY...

ACI AND AMX are moving

Jeff and bloggers,
Take a look at LFC. I see an inverted head and shoulders forming since January. Shoulders are slightly off set. 10 pt move close to breaking.
Kind of hard to see with this stock gapping so much.

Is this enough of a downtrend to qualify as inverted H/S?

Thanks,
Rd

Anyone cae to speculate?

My concern with price action and volume since the breakdown 2/27 the market in general has been in a strong uptrend. Heck, I'll keep trading with the market of course, but how can it sustain this continued bullishness? Every time the market pulls back I wonder if it is going to be a big "correction, or just it's normal as expected pullback.

Are we to expect a big market correction soon? Who knows, but I'll just keep trading what the charts show me...

Course, I expect Brett to give us the heads up when he quits the mochas...

APD has breakout price action, but does it have breakout volume?

John,

I see APD having broke out on 4/25 with a move up of abput 3-4 pts...which it has nearly made.
I am not sure that it is breaking out of anything today...I see how you could get a sym triangle, but does that really qualify as a symm triangle?

For me, I think I would pass on this and take a better trade.

Down to business...
DE breaking out of Asc triangle today with volume. Earnings next week.

Anyone else still in AVB. Seems to have substantial support at $119 dating back to last August.

Thanks Bob.

This was on JK's watchlist for the week as a cup and handle. I have my line at $78.

TIE....Is it back?
Ladd

pcar is breaking out again

Lois,
I'm still in AVB. I still see it flagging. I have enough gains to let it run longer. Out if close above 121.5 though.

AVY is making me sweat. It's back in the triangle but I'm giving until a break of the diagonal.

Man, How high can it go! I have the urge to sell everything and wait....

Rd

I EXITED X just after the FED's announcement. And now it's going up again. Am I too early to get out here today? Makes my head dizzy even with a good profit.

To Jeff and fellow traders, may the good profits be with us most of the time.

I am still in AVB.
Just got out of AVY before the close, I saw it break back up through the support it broke out of on 4/30.
Ladd

Lois,

not that this should influence you, but AVB today bounced perfectly off its ATR and dropped from it. That's been a good sign for my trading.

Remember, AVB was not a 'hit-and-run' trade. This one's going to take some time. Is it worth waiting for the $21 drop that's coming? that's what you need to decide.

Today was a beautiful day in the markets...lots of set-ups and trades taken.
Among other things I read. One thing I decided to do was read the chapter on "Persistence" every day this month from "Think and grow Rich" by Napoleon Hill.
It's not about trading but it is is helping me stay in trades. 21 days to go. Psychology 101 I guess.
Jamie

Nice flag on IFF. The handle part of the cup and handle confuses me. Can any help tell me if this qualifies for both patterns?
Thanks
Jim J

Jim,

I don't really see a cup and handle per se, but that prior high at $50.50 coincides with the gap up, so i would play this one as a flag with horizontal support at $50.50.

Hey, guys,
Had to place my stops and believe the best. Was at the grocery store when the Fed announced. Was very surprised and happy to see the move up while I was gone, although, it seemed like the positions were already doing well before. Thanks to the great stocks that Jeff puts on our radar screen.
Yeah, GS looks great, also X. I added yesterday because it has no more resistance and good volume. TSO looking good. Anyone else trade BUCY today? Wish I had taken a bigger position, but couldn't stay in front of the computer to keep an eye on it.
What about RIMM? Am still in it. Jumped in on the up move, and like the volume? What say you traders?

JEFF, we love ya, man.

Randall and Michelle

Oh, looks like SBS broke out today. Didn't get home in time to participate today. USNA, oh, well, got stopped out. And FTO didn't do what I thought. Hey, you win some, you pick wrong and get stopped out on some.

Anyone watch Lost? I am looking forward to watching it tonight.

Randall and Michelle

Sorry about three posts in a row. I am trying to hurry and get dinner started and I keep forgetting things.

Jeff, I am thinking about buying options on BUCY tomorrow. I am expecting it to move pretty well in the next few days. Would it be better to buy in the money or ATM?
I know you are no fan of ATM. What about for a short-term option (like a few days), what is the better bang for your buck? And how can I figure that out for myself?

Randall and Michelle

R&M, I think you can find answers to your ATM/ITM question in the blog archives like Jeff's trading style. These are great reading if you can absorb it all in the first reading which I cannot. Also if you are an Investools student Adv Options goes through this in good detail and as a result I and many students developed spreadsheets to help us follow our rules and evaluate R/R, ROI, ATM/ITM, position sizing, etc. Oh and these spreadsheets make a great journal as I put in why I got in (what I saw and what I expected) and then my findings, conclusions or what I learned. I just had one of those learning trades stop out today.
Hope that helps.

Jeff, love your new hair and nice glasses!!! Thank you for this blog and hopefully you won't let anyone make you not want to do it.

Bob,
Thanks. Yes, I am an Investools student, but haven't done the Adv Options yet.

That helps.

Randall and Michelle

Wow! After the comment from Bob S yesterday I had to change my display name. It also used to be Bob S.

Jeff and all the other option addicts,

Thank you all for your wonderful posts. I have been looking at different trades discussed here and it has been very helpful. I started about 2 months ago on this blog and before the education I received here, I was definitely directionally challenged. Looking at the analysis here has improved my trading (but not my understanding of why people watch other people run back and forth with a round brown ball and throw it at a basket).

I can and do find my own trades and I am making money. What I don't have locally is a community of people to bounce ideas off of. This blog provides that community for me.

Thank you all

Wow, I have been traveling and dealing with multiple family illnesses and one death to keep up with the volume on the blog each day. I have read today's posts and have this comment. Who among us does not consult this blog multiple times per day??? I am sure none of us expect all of our trades to come from Jeff each week but I am damn glad that I have his list. I have taken many Investools classes and I have been a student of the trading rooms. I could be trading at home ALONE with no MENTOR but I choose not to. Jeff's blog is an educational tool as much or more as all the Investools classes the bulk of the group has taken. Jeff is a mentor, not a crutch. This blog is a mentor and not a crutch. I could care less if my watchlist used all of Jeff's watchlist or only some of his. If Jeff can shorten our learning curve, which he does, to the point that less of us drop out of trading, then how can any of us complain??? Yes, we all want to be independent traders, some of us will and many won't. I think we all have a better chance by evaluating Jeff's picks for the week, seeing how he came to the decision to highlight those stocks, coming to the realization if that trade fits into our trading rules, making the trade and then discussing our winners and losers and the reasons for each on the blog. This blogging community is unique. The traffic is impressive and the group is cohesive. Someone mentioned Tim Knight's blog who is also an Investools instructor. Sample that blog and you will realize the unprofessional behavior (not by Tim) and the aggressive posts that benefit nobody. Jeff does not have to maintain this site and if we give him a reason to abandon it, he just might. None of like to think we are out there trading alone, especially on the days or weeks we tank. Let's not give Jeff a reason to throw in the towel and lets keep being supportive. I have been mostly absent for a lot of reasons but I hope to contribute more soon.

Sean M.
CA

Hey Gang,

I've got an obvious new guy question about selling options. I'm up about 57% on the SKS trade, and while I know you shouldn't buy the front month option I did in this situation because I absolutely hate earnings dates and it is such a beautiful ascending triangle (plus B.O. w/ vol.) + can't hear enough good things about Sacks' good turn around ideas at the company.

So anyway ... the question: what happens if I hold as long as possible, and when is the last moment that I should get out when the option would actually be purchased? Or, should I go ahead and sell it early hoping that there will actually be some buyer a few days out? Or, am I gonna get stuck and have to exercise the option if I wait until the day before or the day of. I have my target set at $24 although I will probably get out for timing before the stock reaches that however, if the stock reaches $24 = easy decision either way.

Have any of you had trouble selling your options close to good ol' 3rd Friday? I've bought and sold several options but I've just recently started and all my exits have been due to stops or targets, not due to time constraints/lack of buyers.

James H.

Wow, I certainly co-sign Sean M's comments about not being able to keep up with the blog traffic... I think it is great... and wanted to use this "negativity" topic as another excuse to thank Jeff for what he does. I have decided to go a different direction than Jeff when it comes to trading... BUT without resources like this blog it would have taken me forever to figure out how I wanted to trade... So, my advice is:

Don't player hate, appreciate! haha

Thanks again Jeff ;)

Hey to the BUCY question, I looked at it today myself, since I stopped out with a small gain in the past. Saw a cup and handle formation from May 06 to now. Maybe it's not real clear but I kind of think we have achieved 10 of the total 18 point movement since around 57.50. What say the experienced? Hey John, you have surpassed me my friend, an inspiration to catch up!!!

Jason

Who is Tyler Thomas and why is he working as Jeff on the Master Talk.

Hey! It's 9 PM. Where's Jeff? How could you leave us hangin' like this? Lot's of rhymes to start this MasterTalk!

Bob (and Pam),

I have taken the Advanced Options trading rooms and classes, I did not create a spreadsheet to evaluate r/r, ITM, ATM, OTM, etc...was this something you developed at the 2 day workshop? Would you be willing to share it with the blog?

Just finished listening to MarketCast. It sounds like Jeff is at the game to night.
You will be missed!

Amy, send me your email and I will send you the spreadsheet as I am too new and not sure I should be sharing what I do with the blog just yet (unless in therapy). Also I have been told (Pam) that most people do not think like I do so my spreadsheets (designed for me) do not work well for others. My email is bob@noburnca.com

R&M-

Please see my comment I left for you on Jeff's prior post about RL and trend. You really need to understand the concept of trend. If you see RL as a downtrending stock, we need to talk further.

Bob(and Pam)
I'd appreciate a sample spreadsheet, too, if it's not inappropriate to ask. I've also been told most people don't think like I do. I choose to believe that to be a compliment!!
I'm not much of a record keeper, and am trying to find a way to train myself to journal my trades. I do see the value in the concept, just lack the discipline.

e-mail is cla345@yahoo.com

If it's uncool of me to ask, that's okay too. No grudges here...

Good night traders-
It's getting late in Texas
cindy a

R&M,

I am in BUCY, MTW and DE. I'll look to add more BUCY on a pullback. Keep an eye on MTW. Same kind of company had great ernings.

Extremely tired this A.M. Watched the Warriors lose one....sorry Jeff. You had to be a better free throw shooter in college than those guys.

Jamie

If you are in the Knot trade you will smile today

Keep an eye on NYX, I think Jeff and Eric did not like this trade on the market cast. I see a head and shoulder and a neck line at 84 or so and some support at 80. but a clear break of 80 I think it will go lower. I took an early stab at it and have an exit at 85 86.
Let's make some money today!!!!

write it down make it happen

Do not jump ship on VIP when it opens lower it paid a 1.3 dividend last night

David,

there's no head and shoulders on NYX. It's not at the top of the trend. If you back out to the 1 year, you might call it a descending triangle setting up.

you are correct, though, a break of $80 is a good entry.

Jeff, was that you sitting a few rows behind the GS bench? Tough loss buddy. You'll get them now that they're back on your home court. Back to the topic at hand...

I've been hanging around here for about a month and I think this is my second post. Ditto for my time with the 'Cast. I guess I could be fishing but I feel much more like a sponge, just trying to absorb all the knowledge I can. Personally, I'm much more interested in why Jeff or Brett or the other experienced traders are buying than I am in what they're buying. Learn...learn...learn. That's my motto. And in this setting, the other key ingredient is trying to give back and help others where and when I can. There's certainly no shortage of that here. Finally, like others have stated, I've visited many other sites and blogs and I feel more comfortable here. There's a zillion sites to go to for stock tips and trade ideas, but I haven't found a better community anywhere.

Love ya! Mean it!

ACI

Nice breakout yesterday....

Thanks for the correction much appreciated.

Does anyone have any experience with short term positions and a public common stock offering? GT has announced one and is down pretty good in after/pre market trading. Since I consider this a trade on the brink and plan on holding it until the end of the day, I am looking for insight if anyone has some.

KNOT

Right at resistance....descending triangle...keep it on the list..

WOOF WOOF.....

John I am with you in the GT trade but have no insights. Yesterday my KNOT trade stopped out and now... GRA stopped out this morning and several others close to the ATR stop line I have. Should be an interesting day.

DavidS - thx for the heads up on VIP. I'm glad I read the blog before looking at my positions!

:-) Pat

Take a look at BG. Head and shoulders break this morning.....

Rd

If F breaks this symm triangle it is in it may move about $.09 or so......But seriously, how does a stock that moves so little in price attract so much volume?
Ladd

Rd-

once again, it's not a head and shoulders pattern, but a desc triangle. Jeff and John Murphy disagree on its validity at the top of the pattern (rather than as a continuation pattern). I personally play these. Also, be careful on this. I was tempted to jump in at the close yesterday and the stock snapped back just before the close back to support.

well,
Looks like today is the correction day we needed. Closing some of my profitable trades and taking profits and looking for good entries on new plays.
Had my stop on VIP at 100, and got stopped out again. I am tired of messing with this one. Maybe I'll look at it again later today. DE is holding steady today, though

Randall and Michelle

Can someone explain to me why the dividend on VIP would drop the stock below $100. It is now within $0.40 of my stop and I never lower stops but would really like to stay in. Help please!

Brett,
Yes, I can see what you are saying but discounted the descending triangle since it is forming at the top. It is hard to fit that first of April activity in the triangle also.
Not a classice triangle or H/S. Just as long as it goes down now....

Rd

The way I see VIP it paid 1.39 so the stock should drop by that much. The problem is not everyone is aware and they panic and start selling. THe way I see it if 100 to 99 is good support buyers should come in at that and take advantage (100 + 1.3) = 101.30 not too bad.

Who knows you just have to react to the support and resistance or you are going to go crazy with the volatility of this good stock

could be a buying opportunity and maybe not

DavidS - Thanks I think I even kind of understand that and it is the panic selling that I guess is getting me. So far holding by my fingernails on this one. Also "fun" to watch a winning stock loose and go negative. Once it bottoms I may look to a new entry. Thanks again!

as of 11:00 a.m. VIP is sitting right at 100 after dipping down to 98.22.

This looks like a buying opportunity to me, don't set your stops on the option and be prepared to give it till day end on a selling decision. MikeH

I dumped my GT. Stock's only drifted lower since I bought it and now the news on a new stock offering. No thanks.

Question. ICE was in Head & Shoulder pattern. yesterday and today moving up. Would you now just call this a broken pattern?? take off radar?? Is there a bullish play?? Any thoughts are appreciated.
thanks
Ladd

Morning addicts,
Holy Moly, Batman!!! I miss one day on the blog and I've got 150 posts to catch up on! Unfortuantely I've got to head to the airport in 1/2 hour so I'm going to miss all of today as well.

DRYS has been an unbelievable stock. I got in in early April, then got out on the slight pullback, then got back in when it headed back up (that's what $0.75 option trades on Interactive Brokers will do.) Don't really want to double my costs by switching to TOS (now that they're up and running in Canada), but I love the platform and just might switch anyway.

Wish I had more time to share other thoughts... but just wanted to add our support to Jeff, Brett, and all the new folks who have just shown up recently. We learn a tremendous amount from everyone's comments.

By the way, Susan from Manhattan... where'd a gal from Manhattan learn to speak french like that? Us Canuks thought we had the corner on the market.

Leaving Vegas in an hour... had too much fun last night. Should have done my homework. Bad me.

Bottomfeeder, in GT as well. If I understand it correctly GT is offering stock at $33.26 so that pretty much caps any gains right? I think I am out today too.

DRYS - yea, stock just keeps plugging up. Sold a 35 strike buy/write cov call on it in my daughters account (very conservative) on that last mini pullback for a cool 8%. Should have just taken the stock. Next pull back and I'm taking another bite. MikeH

I agree with Brett, think VIP is at real heavy support. NOW is a good time to buy. I have been stopped out twice trying to get in, and think at day's end I'll look at getting in again now that it is at great support. I think it dipped down because almost everything is down today. But BUCY seems to be holding steady even on a down day. I bought an option and expecting after this market correction, it will head up again. What say you traders?

Randall and Michelle

I got stopped out on VIP at its low point today and I am PISSED! Yes, call that emotional!

Alright, now I can move on.

Hey anyone interested in a good copper play have a look at PCU. Not a really good entry point right now, but the trend is great and the market for it is even better

I've got my sell order in on GT today, too.

John,
(Laughter.) I am laughing with you. Last month I got burned on CME twice for 2,500. I think I will put in my trading rules, never trade CME. No, just joking. The emotions can get ya. I was annoyed at stopping out on VIP this morning, but realize that, hey, I can get back in. Thanks for sharing. I need the laugh. My boys (3 and 2) are being difficult today and I am having a hard time watching the market.

Randall and Michelle (Michelle posting)

R&M,

I hear you with the three year old boy... They can be spirited when you want to do things...

Never trade CME? Shame on you. It's one of the best trading stocks out there. 2 triangles in the past few months have provided huge gains. If you understand price patterns, stocks like CME can make you some serious money.

My $.02 on VIP: I have been trading this stock since the famous triangle jeff pointed out in his price patterns class last JULY. You know, when the stock was in the $40's! Breakouts don't always work with this one. If you can tag a bounce, you're better off.

I see a trendline since last July. A bounce could be around $95. That's the level i'm looking to get back in on.

Ok, so I took this ARO trade in anticipation of a break down through 40 just like Jeff said on the marketcast and now look at it.

Just kidding Jeff, guess we can take this off the watch list. MikeH

I'm with you Brett on VIP @ $95 ... been waiting on that since about mid-April. Could get it soon if this market keeps acting this way today! There's definitely some adjustment out in DOW-land...

Good stuff out there folks ...

Guys,

I know I've beaten this airline thing to death, but AMR is bouncing down from a bear flag. Remember the initial target was $20 from the head and shoulders. Today is another entry (and of course I took it) for you.

Brett: I wanted to get back in CMG what is your take on this one?

Did anyone take the KNOT trade? 17.50 could be a good target.

Keep an eye on MOD alhough not optionable, is acting nicely.

HWCC 25 could be a good target

APD is holding on nicely and MIL

David, who didn't?

I see a POTENTIAL flag breakout today. Note the use of caps.

By the way... you DOWN with CME?

Yeah, you know me.

Good call on CME but I second guessed me on that one. I will jump in it if it breaks that support there around 490 500 but any market correction this one will go down hard.

I did take NYX with the same idea.

CMG will do well on any market, cheap food etc

Cheap food?

A burrito and large drink cost me over $8 yesterday. Me and the other 20 people in line ahead of me.

Did not mean to offend you :) but I was comparing it to PFCB that I am also waiting to break.

Brett,
Thanks for the tip on VIP. I have been wanting to trade it, but can't seem to get the timing right. Was just joking about never trading CME again. I was just pointing out the emotional side of a loss and how it can make you hate a stock, even though it's the trader who makes the mistakes, not the market.

You guys have a great day. I need to pay attention to the kids.
Enjoy your burrito. I had a sandwich and Cheetos.

Randall and Michelle

Raise your hand if you did not notice PEIX was reporting earnings today and held on to your short position!!!

Ok, mine is up.

Keep on eye on DNA today. Descending triangle with a current break through support.

PENN showing a lot of strength today...anyone still in it..??

I am in it, and that flag is getting longer I am glad I am have the June option.

Is anyone still on XHB? I hope it falls soon as time is running out

Still in on PENN also down with CME... Ya you know me.

Danny DR

MikeH,

C'mon...how many times did I say..."wait for a break of 40!"

I was pretty verbal about how inappropriate it would be to anticipate anything on this one.

I don't take any offense on this, I just want you to see why it is crucial not to take a trade like that.

The best anticpatory trade would have been calls due to the nature of the market, and the nature of the stock, right?

This idea was pretty far out at best, and that is why particular signals of confirmation (break $40, which I said 4 times)are so important.

Hope this helps,

JK

Bob,

I've redrawn PENN as an ascending triangle. Still in it, still love it. Still jumping breakouts sometimes (CME).

oops, i meant CMG, not CME. Though i'm still DOWN with CME (ya you know me).

Napoleon (AKA JEFF)....
Didn't you host Master Talk May 2, session 1 ???? NO ARCHIVES ;( boo hoo hoo, yes I am crying.....

PS did you know Mr Heder (Napoleon) is from your neck of the woods??? I guess you guys really go to "the dunes" and i guess some of you "chat online with babes all day"