Stage 1: Denial
This is when you have the first sign of a loss. However, you justify this loss. You deny it's true form and decide that it could be a winner...but you just have to "wait it out." "Afterall, I bought a lot of time on my option."
Stage 2: Anger
The loss judt got worse. Now you look to place blame. Freakin' blog! I hate the marketcast anyway!!! Why didn't I do my own analysis???? I HATE JEFF KOHLER!!!!
Stage 3: Bargaining
If somehow this stock can move in your favor, you promise you won't do it again. Or even worse, you start to think of ways to salvage. Desperation sets in.
Stage 4: Depression
It couldn't get worse huh? WRONG! Now this makes a huge mark on your account, your spouse is going to kill you, it is going to take forever to make it back, and you start to panic.
Stage 5: Acceptance
Alright, I will take the loss.
Recommendation: Admit you've been here. It's therapeutic.
Long: ISIL...Chuck, see what patience delivers! Way to hang in there!
I think we can all agree we've gone through this same giraffe experience! What a great vid. Thanks Jeff.
Anyone see the VIP breakout today? Not in it but it looks pretty nice.
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 01:36:00 PM
Been there, done that!!!
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 01:42:00 PM
Hillarious! Been there, done that too!!
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 01:48:00 PM
haha... Damn Kohler its all your fault!
Posted by Daniel Del Real, CRS | 5/02/2007 01:49:00 PM
From an optimis's view: just keep on denying eventually you will hit the bottom right? :)
The only problem the giraffe did not bounce.
Just kidding. That video is perfect.
Thanks Jeff
Posted by DavidS | 5/02/2007 01:52:00 PM
So Jeff, how often do you go through that "process"...or have you managed to bypass it with tons of experience. I go through it at least once a week!
Brandon, got into VIP weeks ago waiting for the pop and then more this AM about 45 minutes into the day. Definitely nice to see...finally...
Posted by Chip | 5/02/2007 01:53:00 PM
Yes, yes on VIP, took the trade on a beautiful breakout. I know jeff would approve.
Posted by Sarah | 5/02/2007 02:39:00 PM
Hey guys. I just closed out my single call contract on CMG for a 1000% gain.
I decided to sell it because it had already far exceeded my expectations for the trade.
You all know from my therapy session that I am definitely not an accomplished trader, and I do not consider this one trade to have made me a great deal more accomplished.
However, it has taught me that these homeruns are out there. I had never experienced one before. And when you find them, they can go a long way toward offsetting losses. This is the part I had heard everyone talk about but not experienced until today.
For what it's worth, here's how this trade worked for me:
1) CMG met my bounce rules last week.
2) I saw earnings coming up
3) I looked at the 70 Calls and the cost of one contract fit within my risk tolerance for a single trade. So I bought it with the idea that I was risking the entire premium.
It worked on CMG, but I also did the same thing on HWCC and it went the other way. However, the thing I've learned is that when HWCC tanks on an OTM option like that, I lose about 70% of the invested captial. But when CMG wins big, you can make multiple times the invested capital.
Today, I'm celebrating my best day of trading thus far. Tonight, I get back to the reality of preparing for the uncertainty of tomorrow. I'm still on the couch...
Posted by Tim | 5/02/2007 02:41:00 PM
That's pretty funny. I haven't watched the videos yet but the blog is funny.
This market is strong strong strong and I am long long long. I hope it doens't b*tch slap me.
If anyone's interested:
AFL - flag breakout. Plus the biggest competitor, UNM, jsut reported their profits doubled. Good for Ins. sector???
BLUD - not a pretty one but maybe a flag breakout
PLLL - Bounce?
QCOM - retest of Asc. triangle breakout
RAME - trend reversal
Long Stock - no options right now:
AAPL, AFL, AH, BA, BLUD, LVS, MO, NYX, PLLL, QCOM, RAME, ROSE
As always thanks to Jeff and bloggers. Love the blog.
Brent in San Antonio
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 02:45:00 PM
CONGRATULATIONS TIM!
Wow, this therapy thing really works and fast - one day! Ok move over its is Amy's turn and then mine.
As I am new I have not held over earnings so your experience was a bit of an eye opener, thanks Tim.
I did not see the video and was wondering about the giraffe comments but now I get it.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 5/02/2007 03:37:00 PM
Here's my therapy:
STAGE 1: You spot a symmetrical triangle developing on BBY, so you add it to your watchlist.
STAGE 2: You spot a breakdown occurring, so you wait until the close and, when triangle is pierced, pounce on some June $45 puts.
STAGE 3: The next day, the stock drops big time, but rallies back to the triangle wall, only to fall back later in the day. you add more June $45 puts.
STAGE 4: The next day, the stock rallies right into the triangle, shaking out many traders, but not the seasoned option addicts here. Then, when sanity reasserts itself, the stock drops back outside the fortress-like triangle wall. you chuckle to yourself, and then add more June $45 puts.
Stay tuned for STAGE 5 results tomorrow.
Posted by Brett | 5/02/2007 03:43:00 PM
Congratulations TIM, you had it in you all along!
Brent, I'm hanging in there with you on BBY...no shakin going on here...now how about some therapy on COL...doh! :-O
Posted by Chip | 5/02/2007 03:51:00 PM
Excuse me that was supposed to be to BRETT:
I'm hanging in there with you on BBY...no shakin going on here...now how about some therapy on COL...doh! :-O
Posted by Chip | 5/02/2007 03:53:00 PM
First of all, who's Brent? Just kidding.
COL i bailed out today. Simple exit. I like those.
Posted by Brett | 5/02/2007 03:53:00 PM
Hey Brett,
Are you still holding IIG?
Jerry
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 06:39:00 PM
Jerry,
does howdy doody have a wooden a$$?
Posted by Brett | 5/02/2007 07:33:00 PM
Brett,
Did you look at CHK?
Jerry
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 07:57:00 PM
JEFF
That is freak'n hilarious !!! My very good friend is the animator for Robot Chicken !!! He will be honored to be "featured" on your blog. Too funny !!!
Tonya
daytona beach
Posted by Tonya W | 5/02/2007 09:03:00 PM
Jeff...I read this post tonight with my situation in mind and was pleasantly surprised to see the final tag line. Thanks for remembering. You made my night. I think it is time for me to officially join the blog with a picture and everything.
Chuck
Orlando, Fl
Posted by Anonymous | 5/02/2007 09:23:00 PM