Unsolved Mysteries

If you are unable to see the videos, I decided to switch hosts this week since Revver has about a dozen videos from the last few months that were never approved and are still sitting in cyberspace. Anyway, I am now using Brightcove and if you are unable to see the videos, you will want to download Flash player 9. Here is a link to do so...


It's worth the download.

Slow day in the markets. Jeff, thanks for the watchlists. Your trade ideas are always appreciated. I struggled keeping the video going...not sure if it is my internet connection or the video itself. Did anyone else encounter this problem?

I am still struggling with support. All comments would be appreciated. I was gone last Thursday and Friday, so I set a stop loss on ARW at 40.55. It was triggerd on Thursday. Where would my fellow bloggers have set their stop? Hindsight is cheating, so please look at the stock price prior to Thursday to set your stop.
Not finding support correctly is making me rethink my trading style.


Thanks for the video. This video has a better quality (pictures ).



ARW is kinda tuff for me to get clear lines, but, it looks like it runs up about $4, then pulls baack $3.

Not sure when you took the trade, but I suppose if I was going to get in, I'd look for a bounce of my diag trendline and maybe get in at around $38 or $39...buy enough time and as long as it keeps going up $4 and pulling back $3, let it ride.

My most recent stop would have been at about $40, and I owuld have been a bit flexable, a thick line so to say.

Hope that helped....

If anyone is on DRYS they had blow out results, hopefully it will carry through tomorrow.

Also GVA performed well today

happy trading

We've been in DRYS for quite a while now and made piles of money off of it (almost enough to make up for the the losses on AVB et al.) I've been finding that blow-out earnings have transformed into huge losses these days. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Things bounced back today a bit... still down more than I'd like, but everything's staying in it's trend that I have. I sold three things today for losses but everything else is looking solid. 401k is perking along nicely (MLM, POT, X, and a Canadian stock that no one knows about but returns 13% a month... non optionable and thinly traded. Still my 700 shares have gone from $9 to $18 in 6 months.)

I'm in the air again tomorrow morning, but back on the ground for the afternoon fray. I'm no longer hungry, no longer thirsty, but I'm tired and heading to bed. Sens lost last night to Anaheim (got Terminated) so no game tonight. Sleep well, Option Addicts. tomorrow's another (and hopefully better) day.

C2, I've never been in AVB, but I have to say that if I had been, I'm almost sure I would have exited today. If you played the H&S, seems like a clear and strong breach of the neckline to me. Strong price movement, strong volume and penetrating the neckline by 1-2%.

But, I don't play patterns like that yet and part of the reason is because I'm never clear on my exit points. I'm trying to learn. So I would welcome the voices of experience out there if there is a way to look at this that does not say exit on price action like today's.

I think that technically AVB is a failed pattern after today. I have learned to be patient and not exit unless I'm absolutely convinced that the area has been violated. Today, I hung in there until the last 10 minutes, expecting to find even a little weakness and I just didn't.

I also looked around and saw ESS and AIV with similar broken patterns, so that supported my decision as well. The only one I think that's still below the neckline is DDR, so I still have exposure in that area. Plus, i'm not ashamed to jump back into AVB if it closes below the neckline again. Better safe than sorry.

Just my opinion. Not a great start to the week for me either, but 1 day does not make a week. I am confident that I'll grab my White Mocha tomorrow morning and give the market a well-deserved ass-kicking from bell to bell.

Jeff, I hope your famous quote "1 day does not make a trend," applies to the blog too. This place was a morgue today.

Looks like COL has run up as expected and is breaking out. Another possible entry point for those who didn't take the ride up.
Thanks for the trade.

Jeff, first a HUGE THANKS. Brett ESS did it for me today and I am out. Stopping out still early in the trading day as I have to figure out those end of day stops that Amy does.
I have to be out of town for the rest of the week so will not be able to join in too much so keep the market (and my trades) safe my friends.

I think we all are having a hard time getting back on track after a long weekend. Got stopped out of ESS, but KIM and PSA are close behind if they don't turn around tomorrow. Close to stops. Well, don't mind my puts biting the big one if my calls and stocks head higher. Let's hope that will be the case tomorrow for everybody.
Thanks, Jeff, for the videos. I didn't realize they were there until late today, and by then I was worn out.

Let's all get ready for a wonderful trading week. Hopefully, somebody was in the GTRC trade. Nice move today. I missed it.
Thanks C&C for the post. You guys always motivate me.

Randall and Michelle

anyone going to atlanta this week ??? a few of us are going to dinner on friday....if anyone is interested let me know.

Some ideas for your blog or charting class. Check KSS on the 10-year for a saucer, and check NAT on the 2-year for a cup-n-handle.
Dave H.

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Very nice observation on KSS. In the short-term, i see a failed ascending triangle breakout, a 2-year trendline broken, and strong resistance at $74.00 area. Still higher highs and higher lows, but I'd be watching carefully for a reversal here.

China gonna hammer the Bulls today? Futures starting way down today...

Brett...make the Mocha a double..gonna be a crazy day today...

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Well we are on for a ride today.

What I hate about these days is the loss of virtual profits. But if I was a better trader I would be looking for opportunities, bear and bullish. When I overcome that fear in my stomach is when I know I will be a great trader.

bear stocks to keep an eye on


plus all other jef's picks
happy trading

Futures way way down. Maybe we will open low, and just creep back up all day long. I hate these types of days myself..

Let the games begin.....

Follow your rules addicts....

I am strapped in on the rollercoaster, will take this ride till it ends today. Even got my barf bag with me...Hope I don't nail anyone behind me with a chunk...

Breathing, breathing.....Brett must be pounding down the beans...

Bob what a nice thought for so early in the morning. You are so thoughtful to warn us about the chunks..... ;o)


Gotta pee too....!


Maybe it's time you switch to decaf, buddy.

just kidding.


Last 3 times the Vix hit this level it bounced down.

Buy some CLRK and enjoy the ride.

LOL....I like yelling and screaming at the computer!! What better way to upgrade your monitor every week!!!!

And with your (Bretts) coffee spitting, nose blowing, coffee spraying comments, I get a new keyboard weekly as well!!! LOL....

It's okay, you guys. We are gonna have a good day.

Randall and Michelle

All my trades doing what they are supposed to be doing...fluctuating and staying within my rules...


All my trades are doing what is expected too. Calls are down and puts are up.

Trade the plan Addicts. The China news is just noise. Less than 10% of the people there have access to trading. Add in another 10% or 100 million people and the truth will set them free. That will add some demand for equities.


If you analyze your trades and have your plan set before you put money on the table, your trades become much less emotional and much more predictive.

The sell offs are not as bad as the media/analyst expected. We back to bullllllllllls market baby.

Long : FCX, I have been riding this

Kas Sleep Less in Seattle

The blog...and Brett's humor. Keeps it real and on track, lots of re-inforcement.

My biggest areas of improvement as a trader...

1)Plan set before trade placed.
2)much better entry points..I only enter my trades at a support or resistance level, or a pattern breakout. I buy the right amount of time, and know relatively soon if the trade goes against me
3)MACD, STOCHASTICS, MA's..whats that?
4)I never counter trend trade.
5)I never make a decision intra day, unless there is an overwhelming reason to do so. For those days, I got my barf bag.

Back out on MAA and you should be able to find gold.


Very nice. I might be able to afford those Victoria Secret bathing suits now..

Bob, I am getting ready to get on a plane in a few hours so the visual is real. As I have not experienced this before any wisdom on setting support and resistance after a split like POT and TSO? Interesting that my TOS account shows TSO as NA for %PL today.

Gotta love X....

Strong today:
CAT making a nice move higher off short term support lione. BUCY support bounce and trying to make new highs.

Also, bought some DE yesterday. It broke out of an Asc Triangle after earnings has had its retest and is bouncing off support. I'd like to see a little more volume.


You mentioned that you could not find any strength or reason to keep you in the AVB trade yesterday. Well it seems that I did, the 200 day ma acting as resistance. (I rarely even have the 200 ma on my charts??).
Anyone still holding this? Currently up $7.23. I usually wait until the end of the day to exit trades. What do the rest of you think, AVB give some of these gains back or just throw the damn towel in now?
Thoughts are appreciated.

Bob and Pam

I have not been in option trades (only stocks) during a split. I still followed the charts and acted accordingly...which is easeir to do once the charts adjust...

I also bought some DE yesterday. Looking good today.

Also bought puts on BG - Bunge jumping off a cliff.


Just my two cents here, but I see BG forming the right shoulder (at a support area) of an inverse H & S, and it just made a higher high on increasing volume, and its recent pullback on decreasing volume...??

Nerves of "X"

anyone else googling all the way to the bank???

Doji Girl, We'll make some money with DE. Nice entry.

On BG what time frame are you looking at for puts ? I see the intermediate downtrend it started in Feb but then this high in May is higher than the high in April. If it reverses up from here then BG has a higher low and maybe a new trend.




It's interesting that two people can see such different things. I don't see the inverse H&S but I do see some support at 75. I also see a nice downtrending channel with lower highs and lower lows. I am looking at that interim high at the end of April as a bear flag.

My target, one month, is at 70 though if the market tanks, this one with its poor fundamentals could go lower. If it stalls at 75 for too long and/or reverses I'll exit the trade.

Karen, I see the way you are looking at it. But, doesn't the higher high in May (exceeding the April High invalidate the bear flag ?

Heres is another support bounce candidate, MUR. Look at that beautiful line of support and a nice bull flag. Get ready

Anybody looking at FWLT. I've been in this but with its break of 100 it looks ready to make another leg up...and I wouldn't mind grabbing a few more contracts.


Doji Girl..

Another resaon I like the blog..we can share what we see..

On about 4/25 BG made a high in the $79 area, then made a higher high the middle of may, the $81 area.

I see a left inverted shoulder the middle of April at the $74.50 area, the head around the middle of may, and the right shoulder now..If you (on the 3 month chart) draw a support line from the open on 4/17, thru the close on 5/17, that is roughly my shoulder line....

You guys sure are gutsy with BG:

I see:

1) a potential series of lower highs

2) a failed descending triangle breakdown

3) a potential bull flag setting up

4) MAYBE an inverse h&s setting up but it's way too early.

Way too many patterns for me to choose from.

Man, if you want a bearish trade, just grab some FRX. Jeez.


This is the reason i rarely use moving averages. If the MA always seems to act as a touchpoint i'll use it, but otherwise, i'd rather draw my own lines.

On AVB, it was only recently the 200-dma acted as anything. I gave more credence to the neckline as a key area.

As for throwing in the towel, it sucks to have to do that, but if you can salvage some premium and put it to work in something else, you're definitely on the wrong end of the gun on AVB right now.

Getting my daily dose of option addicts.

Gotta love not only X, but POT and how about OIH.


BG - My crystal ball (charts) says that it had a failed breakdown during the 1st half of May. Now it returned back up and took off the top of 4/24. It is right now sitting on 10 and 40 ma. and again my crystal ball is predicting that future price action can be just a consolidation (74-81 range).

Bill T

Gutsy...not me...too many other setups that offer better entries and more predictability...BG just in my watch list, not ready for me to trade it yet.


Maybe on the turn in between beer swigs you can drop in and say hello to us.

Brett,not looking at puts on BG but have been in FRX since 5/24.

A little chatty today after yesterdays quiet day.

I'm with you on X, Bob. It is catching a nice bid in here. Kept looking at ATI also, but just can't get comfortable that it is a support bounce...like X.


Brett, You still in PENN?? I am..


ATI on my radar, been there for a while. Just not ready yet. I like GRP, a nice trend...

Okay addicts...just for giggles here...

I just received a reccomendation to buy the Nov 35 calls on TMX.


If BG bounces off support in the 75 area then I will concede a higher low making this a trend reversal. Right now I am sticking with my position until my rules say it's time to go.

I really like the input though. This blog is wonderful because often it takes another set of eyes to see something that otherwise would be missed. (I still think calling it an inverse H&S is a huge stretch at this point)

OK Bob, I'll bite. Yes, but I'll wait until the bull flag breaks.

Like MUR is doing today. I'll target Oct 60's.


Same here Jamie!!! Though I don't like the $35 strike...

Hey Brett-

You still down with NVT? I got this one from you- thanks Man. A little patience paid off. I owe you a burrito...and a white russian....and a double mocha.

Peter V

Sorry I missed all the chatter. Had to do something really important, get my hair done. (laughter.) Glad to see some plays doing well even though the market is down.

Yes, I'm GOOG ling too. Hopefully all the way to 500. That's where I see resistance.
X and POT and GS look great. Can Jeff point out some good stocks or what? My puts have all stopped out, which is a tell-tale sign they are no good anymore with the market going down and them going up (ESS, KIM, PSA). Just got into CYMI this morning, now looks like it is indecisive as to if it wants to break down or not.

I am ready for a big bull day, how about you guys???

Randall and Michelle
(obviously Michelle posting today)

Thanks for the stocks to watch somebody pointed out. I just bought some CAT. Looks good. DE, too, but has some overhead resistance, so CAT looked like the better play. BUCY has a nice move up, but I've been in that baby for a while and it doesn't want seem to want to move off its support there. It keeps moving back down to it.

Randall and Michelle

GOOG to $510, and then some..

OA et al....

Great action on the retest for SLB. Amazing how the retest held. I continue to learn so much the more I am patient. Almost bailed yesterday but it closed above the support line. Classic text book price action.


Holy smokes!!! What a differnce a day makes. Yesterday was one of the quietest days on the blog (is that a word?) and today... I left Halifax at 8:00 and just arrived in Calgary and WHOOSH... there are 67 posts on this strand! And it's all really interesting stuff. AND... every single one of my trades is in the black today. Calls and Puts. It just goes to show that you've GOT to just look at each stock individually and assess it's trend. Is it broken (check one only... yes... or no?) If not, leave it alone. If it is, ditch it. After much knashing of teeth (not Steve Nash...) I ditched AVB yesterday around 3:00 and I managed to salvage $400 from it and invested it in PFCB puts. So far so good.

So far it's one of those days that puts the "what the heck am I doing this for?" nagging, out to pasture.

Hey Brett, check out DRYS. MLM, POT, and X are all in my 401k and doing great today. My arms are exhausted from flying all the way from the east coast so I'm going to have a wee nap.

Thanks for all the great chatter today, addicts.

Gotta go to a closing (the real estate market is not completely dead here in FL, contrary to media reports) so I won't be around for the close but my stops are in place. Thanks to all for the feedback on BG....will be keeping a close eye an that one.

GOOG tends to take your profits really quickly. I think 510 is optimistic, so you might move your stop up as your profits go up. I have seen my profits dwindle soooo many times with GOOG until I walked away with hardly anything. Not trying to convince you to get out early, just don't want you to lose big profits. Seems like it does best early in the day, too.

Just an observation,



Just grabbed my burrito and now i'm home watching the kids.

what a great day!!

let's rock to the close!

Hello All!

Just checking in to let you know I'm still alive...barely. Finally starting to see some action at work with buyers.

As for the trading, still suffering from small account syndrome. Just in 4 option plays TK, FLIR, VIp & X. Trying not to be emotional about VIP, but I hate how it's getting beat down since earnings.

Thanks all for the nice read (usually at night) on the blog. It appears that the Fed has helped support the market.

Happy trading all.


RYAAY (I think first mentioned by Brett) got killed today and is finally starting to move down

Yes, the 200 dma I seldom use either, that is what I meant by saying I rarely show it on my charts.
What I did yesterday is searched for a reason to stay in AVB until I found one (ignoring my rules)
Thanks for your response, great blogging all!

Nice day, everyone! Let's hope the rally continues tomorrow.

Grabbed a little GRP at the end of the day. Wanted to buy more stuff but too many things had moved too far for my R/R comfort zone.

My puts are pushing on those lines but hanging in there.

Hope everyone is doing well.

It was a nice day! Maybe Brett should start tomorrow morning with some burritos and a white mocha. I want X to push right through it's prior resistance level. I'd like to ride that rollercoaster higher.

I love being able to say "there were so many stocks to choose from!" I wish I had a bigger portfolio to take advantage of all the nice set ups. But I'm getting there. Slowly... but surely.

Have a great night option addicts!

pasadena, ca

Anybody got any bearish plays that are actually moving down? I'm hurting for some good ones, most of mine have stopped out.

Currently short KMX, PFCB and RHI and they're moving up with the market. I missed RYAAY today, may pick that up tomorrow.


Wow, on a 8:07 post some guy named Jamie wrote, "Trade the Plan addicts. The China thing is just noise."......hmmmm

Good blogging today everybody. Thanks Jeff for making this available to everyone. I'll listen tonight on Master Talk.

Good GDP tomorow, good Employment Number Friday, and the bulls could have some fun.

Have a great night

Mike H,
I'm in INFY, AEM, PFCB, and STX. Three of the four made money today (and grand total of $130... but a profit's a profit.) Everything else moved up which made for a lovely day.

Hope some of you found a way to get into POT. Very expensive but it sure does move. MLM's doing great still too.

I'm in the air again tomorrow, so I'll keep my fingers crossed for another great day. The great thing is there's virtually nothing I own that could break it's trend, unless there's some kind of calamity (something other than Brett not getting his WM.) Hopefully we'll close out the month with the bull pen full.

I can't just sit by and soak in the education without giving anything back to the "addicts"
I finally made a profit today!! Over $1000!!
Thanks to all who give their thoughts on trades, when to check enter and exit points, and the one that I finally followed was, WAIT...
Thanks to all the bloggers.
Jeff calls me one of the ones lurking in the darkness. I have come to the light!
Thanks, Jeff.

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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