Another Merger Monday

I hope everyone had a great weekend, because it is time to get back into business. Aside from getting worked at the tables, Vegas was incredible. It was a great getaway.

I can't believe Private Equity is still buying up all these companies. The market can't do much but go higher. The only question is will the market hold onto it's gains? My thought is yes, and that is only because we start a new quarter today and there is no reason to sell off intra-day.

I am looking around my watchlists trying to find some good ideas for the week. I hope a few of you participated in the PCP revolution. Unbelievable.

I will be back after I have found some ideas to discuss.

Recommendation: Make some money this week.

Long: PCP

Short: FFH

Glad to see so many addicts got PCP.

Long: PCP, AAPL (still), GOOG, LFC, BWLD, BEAV,


Recommendations: This Blog and an I phone...

Live from Denver Int'l...

Just wanted to wish you all a happy holiday and a great trading week. I had my WM on the way to the airport, so hopefully you guys will do your part to hold things up since i'll be on a plane from now until the close.

Someone tell me about the iPhone. I've heard mixed reviews and I have a Moto Q on the Sprint network and I'm pretty happy with it. However, there's an Apple store in Fashion Island right by my hotel and I need to be informed.

Take care.

I picked up some PCP on Friday with the new 52 week high. I'm still struggling to find good put plays and have been slowly selling my puts as they continue to climb with the overall market. I'm now heavily weighted to the call side.

Long: MLM, POT, PLL, COL, PCP, CTRP, NTG, SNHY, WDC, CY, EXM, and many more...

Short: HMIN (not much longer), BSC, ALB, LCC, LXK, RTI

The two short plays I jumped on this morning are AIV and WYNN. I was looking at FFH over the weekend but it seems so pricey, even for OTM puts.


KIM is up today but at a resistance level. Been a good put play for a while and I am still in it. Bought FFH about a week ago. Pricey, but could also be potentially profitable if it keeps going. Especially interesting that it moved so well today on an up day in the market.
LLC and BSC are my other puts. Hope some of those ideas help.


KBH is still at a relatively good entry point for a put play. Broke through some major support last week at $40.

I'm short AMR as well. It's anticipatory, but also relatively low risk.



Joel R.

Something else about FFH for those considering playing it or already doing so. I've been watching it closely the last week or so. It tends to be up in the mornings and move down during the day.


Forgot to mention I am also long MTL which seems to be breaking out today after stellar earnings on Friday. And I sold a put on CLF so I'm happy to see it above 80. Stay there please!

What a nice day in the market. It's great to have a break up before the holiday coming. I am looking forward to relaxing, enjoying fireworks and eating some good food.


Ah Bob R., Keep the encouragement coming on AAPL I got my G-ma in on the stock at $55. The option hasn't been so good to me. Up down, up down. I have no clue what to do with it now. I'm counting on the support to hold. Been in it for awhile now - July 120's, hoping they get a boost from news or something before time melt eats me.

Long: AAPL, BUCY, DECK, ESRX, FCX, MLM, MTW, PCAR (trying again), PCP, POT, RL.

SHORT: Me not having it in me yet to pick put plays much(that is definitely next on my list).

Nice market today - hope I didn't speak too soon.

Calling all chartists --- opinions on PCAR? I can't tell what this funky feller is doing - it messes with my head.

James H.


Nobody has ever mentioned the 'fertilizer trade'. CF, TRA, and MOS have been great trades for me. Also, TNH has been straight up but doesn't offer options.

Jim in Des Moines

GRMN offering a decent entry here trender


POT!!!! We all talk about that one all the time.


James H.-

Looks like PCAR is trending sideways. Support around 85. Resistance around 91.


Anyone else in this? Also long PCP, VIP, MSM, CLF, CLB
Short: AMAG, AMR, NYX, JEF AND ALB may be showing potential entry

I think Eric and Jeff said that PCAR was done so leave it alone.

I haven't played it since it made the gap up. If you don't feel comfortable with it, I would move on to something else. That's what I had to do with VIP. I just leave it alone. It and me don't get along. (laughter.)



Concur on Michelle's comment from Jeff/Eric.

Basically, since it gapped-up as it did, stocks like this will typically trade sideways for a while before re-establishing directional movements.

If you just couldn't resist, I'd at least wait for it to strongly break above the current resistance ~$91 or so. Otherwise, there is too many other good opportunities out there!

James, Liz,

Sorry, I missed Liz's comment too!

Of course she's going to be "out yonder with the gophers and deer" here pretty soon...!

Hey Liz, is that anything like "where the deer and the antelope play"?

AAPL going to make a move in the next few days....keep a tight rein on her....I am...

Anybody short ADM?
It's boosted up to diagonal resistance the last few days, and I have it just above resistance at the moment. I plan on hanging on, but it's getting close. I'd welcome your thoughts.

Peter V


Not in it but whenever I see "BIDU" I always know it's you.

It looks great. Nice move the last 4 days!!!


GOOG getting to make a run higher..


If I saw deer and antelope playing, I might just have to sell my POT position. Or maybe it's too much PCP?


Am I being too optomistic looking to see the DOW pop 13,700 this time up??

Bob: be careful on appl. sell on the news thing. Now everybody and there mother will start discecting the phone, problems etc. Also a lot of professionals will sell on the news.

I like to be ready if it breaks either way.

Have EXP on your radar, ESV is about to breakout.

BSC another re test? MER is slipping I am thinking about jumping back into BSC


Touché...I don't know about either, but if you talk about deer, watch out for Raimo!


Are you wanting the DOW to pop up another 200 today? It is above that 13400/13500 resistance/support level today.



I hear ya loud and clear on AAPL...

Got my eyes glued to the chart....ready to squash the trade like a june bug hitting me in the teeth on my motorcycle buddy...

LIZ...if you see any deer and antelope, uh, ahem, maybe you might tell me where they are...??


I'd have to watch out for my father-in-law!


Dow to 13,700 as a new high, not today...over the next several would be nice...


I know we have talked a lot about exits, but can we talk about entries?

I checked your "top links", just to make sure I didn't overlook anything...

For PCP, when did you get in? How did you decide your entry point? I have more trouble timing entries right now and would love to get your insight.

I took a "sabbatical" for awhile, but have always learned a ton from your blog. It's amazing how much the community has grown!! Speaks volumes of your teaching capabilities and the loyalty of the group.



do you have a trading style yet? id:, patterns, bounces etc.??

There are different rules for taking different types of trades.

PCP could have been traded either way, it depends on your rules....

Hope this helps. (I took PCP as a bounce play myself)

Peter V-

ADM-Looks like it's sitting on resistance/support. The volume has been slowly going down the last few days. There's quite a bit of horizontal resistance going back a bit right around where it is as well. This stock since around October whether going up or down seems to like to make channels. To me... in my opinion... it just looks like it's moving back up to the top of it's channel and will head back down. I'd wait until the end of the day to see what it does. Then make your decision.



Whatever you do, don't tell Raimo where the dear are. Remember what happened to Bambi's mom!!

Thanks for your thorough analysis on ADM. I suppose to exit today (assuming nothing too crazy happens in the next hour), would put me in the "emotional trader" category- neither swing nor trend.
Peter V

Hi everyone,

Is anyone watching PCU?

Is this a breakout in your opinions?

I was thinking of a trend trade on this one. But confused as to how many months out to buy for a trend trade.

Any comments?

Sean M.-

I do remember what happened to Bambi's mom! But my father-in-law is closer.



Any comments on NILE, EXM or getting into POT?


You asked about the iPhone. I wish I could tell you something personal about it but all I can do right now is drool. On Tim's website he has a picture of the two he just bought. I'm sure he'll dissect it and tell everybody about it soon.


Peter V.

Looked at ADM...

on the 2yr looks to me like resistance at $35...also as of recent looks like heavier volume on the way down when compared to on the way up. And still lower highs and lows...

Depending on when you got in, and what your plan was, as an outsider not in the trade, I'd be looking to see if it breaks above or bounces back off the $35 area....

Anyway, my 2 cents if it helps...

Peter V.-

It's always easier to look at a chart when it's not your own and be analytical about it. That's why I love this blog.


Speaking of dear, Deere is moving up nicely today, too. I am going to hold onto my AAPL. I just have a small stock position. I think it will stabilize and head up either this week or next. All the rattles will shake out of the cell phones stuff, and it will be positive. Of course, the news will focus on the few "bad apples" whose phones didn't get turned up. Anyway, looks like the bears are taking early vacation. Good riddance, I say.



Too early for an opinion I think on the I phone. Next few days will tell all. I have read both good and bad, along with mixed, reviews. One thing for certain, AT&T NOT I have read...

BSC really annoying me. More so than AAPL...

Thanks Bob and Liz-
I've got "ADM- Supermaket to the World" in my head from the Lehrer News Hour.
Really appreciate your input.

Come now Raimo, you didn't expect BSC to go down all at once did you! Especially with the Bloomberg article's opening statement "July 2 -- Treasury investors can thank Bear Stearns Cos. for smothering the bear market." They're credited with saving the world!

I expected as much and is still below the ~$145 support. Now if it busts that, I'll start to get a little antsy!

Would anyone out there care to open my eyes on the following stocks which currently have me baffled?- it would be greatly appriciated. Buy - Sell - Hold?

FST (call)
PAAS (put)

Thanks in advance dudes and dudettes.

Think its time to short BIDU?

P.S. I'm a swinger.

option fanatic

i would not advise that personally. trading against the trend is the single hardest way to trade i believe. at least that is what i was taught.


You're joking...right?! I have to be careful lately!!! If be polite...NO!

Step is right, don't trade against the trend and a very strong one at that. It may go up for a little while and will eventually retrace, although will likely continue its uptrend and your money will evaporate like water in the desert! There are much better places to 'put' your money!


Thanks for your response.

I looked at it as a bounce, too. I think it has a strong diagonal trend and would play it as such, but how did you set your entry?


I'm kidding of course! But maybe! Hummm.... Did anyone catch that one.

PCU's annual monthly strike is over. Hence the 5% move.

Joel R.


Caught it!


Did anyone pull the plug on BSC. I heard that Bear Stearns is looking for a buyer to resolve their hedge fund problems! It's a push for me right now.

Great going Liz, that will make for a nice Holiday Treat!

I have my line drawn at 145 for BSC. until then I am staying in it

long island, ny

FST, PAAS.....going once, going twice....


In my opinion: PCU-Could have been traded as a bounce a few days ago or a breakout today.

POT-up off trend line/breaking through prior highs.


p.s. I'll look at the other stocks you mentioned later. got to get the kids lunch.

$TNX broke below 5. watch out above. Only if the dollar gets stronger!


I'm hanging onto BSC for the support bounce. If it doesn't make that I'm out.

Halloween...uh...guess I didn't get it?!

BUCY.....sorry i forgot to put this one on my list last night

looks like a great day in the market ;-)

Chip, I see resistance @ 145. I don't know if I have that much patience! But should stay with the trend.


FST looks like prior support around the $42 'area'.

PAAS looks like diag support around $28 - 27.5 'area'.

Caveat: I don't have Prophet charts at work to draw good lines, although looks like you're okay if you're still in, at least for the day...tomorrow is another opportunity!

Tonya checked out your picks today, Good Job!

Good day in the market for us hope it was for you all too. Hey, who said that they day traded GOOG? I can't find that comment now but remember reading it. If you would not mind let me know how you day trade GOOG ( I have been playing with a couple of day trading rules and in an up trending market with up trending stocks it was very easy today (all paper you know) only challenge is on low volume and slow movement like SPY.

Chip, July 4th

Thanks Tonya, although we're talking about BSC as a 'put'. >:-) At the moment, I'm only down a few $$$, although if it continues this, I won't be in 'long'!

optionfanatic, Halloween, July 4th...okay...I'm not usually not that dense, although I'm still not getting it. Guess you'll have to spell it out for this aging brain!


No comment on FST but PAAS is a strong stock, good fundamentals and seems to be following the price of silver fairly well. I don't think I'd want to be in a plut trade on this.

Chip, I asked if anyone caught the move on BIDU Its move up was 18.43. Now if I had that position it would make my holiday.

PCU has really pissed me off. I was in that trade and got stopped out 4 days ago and have watched it rally ever since. One of the few times that I had to use a mechanical stop because I couldn't be around to baby sit it.

Don't forget the markets are only open until (1:00) I think tomorrow, and closed Wed for July 4th. Just keep that in mind when trading this week.


Chip, Now that I read the whole thing over I understand your point! Oh well!

Doji Girl-

I so feel your pain. I pretty much had the exact same scenario and I've been sighing ever since.


new thread!!!!

I am in BIDU

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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