Arch Nemesis: The Bank of Japan

I know I might still catch a few of you during the late night hours, but I want to make sure that you all trade carefully tomorrow. In case you didn't know, the bank of Japan meets late tonight to discuss interest rates. Take a look at this chart to see what they did to the market on a couple of their last meetings....

A rate hike would be a drag if you are bullish, yet can be great if you are bearish. Just make sure you have your risk in check during tomorrows session. If not, it could help to push your account equity in the wrong direction.

See you in the morning.

Recommendation: Watch the FXY to make action on the Japan news.

Long: FXY?

Short: FXY?

Jeff--Thanks for the heads up. I thought about getting into a few trades today but decided to hold off for a little while given recent market activity. I'm glad I did. I continue to learn something new from the blog every day and really feel like I am starting to make some progress! Thanks for all you do.

Thanks Jeff.

You keep us on top of things. Great Forbes article. Have set a couple of tighter stops to keep an eye on in the morning. Thanks again. We feel like we're getting there.
Paul & Karen, Amelia Island

DITTO...thanks for the heads up there a place to check the outcome of the meeting tonight ??? We will be at Universal Studios all day tomorrow and I would like to get the heads up tonight if possible...

Ok to be completely off topic, I'm watching America's Got Talent.

I would rather have my thumbs cut off than sit through another anguishing 3 minutes of Boy Shakira and the Bollywood goof. These guys makes the final 20 and the RedNeck Tenors go home.

If this is any indicator, then the bank of Japan will raise rates tonight because the world must be coming to an end.

Shoot me now.


You can check almost any financial site, although I like They list the current market valuations and have headlines. If the BOJ raises rates the Nikkei and Topix will drop and of course the headlines and accompanying story will tell you too.

Thanks for the heads-up JK.

Thanks Jeff. Will keep an eye out for the results.

Dumb question -- Is this a watch for the downside mostly? As in if they do nothing it may/may not provide a lift, but if they do raise rates, could really hurt the market?

It seems like that to me, but not sure if you implied that or I just was thinking it.

Love the web cam on the vid's.


Thanks Jeff, something to add to the mix tomorrow. I'll be up at 6 and check futures. Always good to check the blog late at night for up to date info.


Thanks for the alert.

You’re a brave man, Bottom Feeder. I don’t know which is worse…watching America’s Got Talent or admitting to it in public Blogsphere fashion. Either way, I got a good chuckle out of it, thanks. Let’s hope Mr. Fukui is as mesmerized as you and leaves those rates alone.


By the way, you can get that same “cut my thumbs off” feeling from some of these CNBC shows, as well. Why do I even have this channel on anyway? Oh yeah, less than 10% of all MLB players participate in the All-Star game yet everyone gets the day off afterwards. Maybe we should pay them more…

From Bloomberg, this is prior to the BOJ meeting announcement...just an FYI:

"Investors are holding off buying debt on concern some Bank of Japan policy makers will dissent when the board votes to keep borrowing costs unchanged today."

"Some board members will vote against keeping rates unchanged and that will remind people that the BOJ is ready to raise as soon as next month..."

Hey guys,

I've seen some comments come through lately about how to effectively subscribe to comments. I've wanted to provide something more detailed about this for you guys and finally got around to it. I wrote a post on my blog that you can check out at the link below:

How to subscribe to an active RSS feed

Check it out and enjoy. And let me know if you have any other questions.

Happy trading tomorrow. The last two days have stunk for me. Hope you guys are all doing better.

As always thanks Jeff. Maybe it's time to tighten some finishing flag pattern stops and let the ESS start smoking!?!?!?


BOJ leaves rates unchanged. If I'm reading Jeff's post correctly, this should be bullish to neutral for US equities tomorrow.

I wonder if the release of their report will have any impact (like it does with our FED). That should happen in the next hour or two.

Although the vote was 8-1 in favor of keeping them the same, so it wasn't even close.

Thanks Jeff and Brett for keeping us updated on the important information that I did not know about. If anything else arises about this, please let us know. We all appreciate you for sharing your endless knowledge.

thanks Chip ;-)

Call me crazy, one, because I am. And two because of a thought I have for the upcoming line of Option Addict paraphernalia or novelty items…. Story: I have recently been looking for a new personal check style the fits my personality. My most recent style was three different baseball scenes. Before that was rock climbing and skiing. Since I haven’t climbed a rock in five years since my first born arrived and the skiing pictures stunk, I had to ditch that for my life long passion, baseball. Baseball has finally taken a backseat to something, trading options. I have searched far and wide to find a check style with something related to the stock market to no avail. My thought: a personal check style for “Option Addicts”.

If there was to be a personal check style and there had to be three different pictures/watermarks/scenes whatever you call the background, what should or would the three be? Or would just an option addict logo or the new cracked up option addict title do the trick for every check?

MLM yesterday, DECK today… and my account value is unchanged… I must be doing something right. Although I no longer look at my account balance during trading hours, I still do at the end of each day. Why? Because I’m an accountant! And accountants are “different”. Just the facts. We will call it more for informational purposes because it does not sway my decision making process in any way.

How was Jeff’s Mastertalk tonight? Hopefully I can catch this one because I haven’t seen a Mastertalk since May.

You stay classy Option Addicts.


If interested, from Bloomberg, following up the BOJ's decision to leave rates unchanged:

Looks like the Yen is stronger today, but 'not' because the BOJ increased rates and likely the FXY will show an increase:

"July 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and dropped versus the yen on speculation losses on debt backed by U.S. subprime mortgages will spread."

Looks like our patience on IMCL has finally paid off this morning.

Good morning! I am SO annoyed that I missed Jeff's mastertalk last night! I went there and did not see his name, so chose Kelly's talk instead of Alan's. Had no idea he was hiding behind Alan's 'door'. Hope it is archived so I can catch it later tonight.

I have to leave now for a good portion of the day so someone please keep an eye on some stocks for me, 'kay? particularly, ESV, JOYG, POT, CLF, CAT, NTGR and JOSB on the long side and AIV, PAY, KIM, BSC on the shorts. (I think I need to get me some new shorts - these are getting stale)


I'm still in Deck as I am in it with stock in my IRA and trying to maintain a bit longer-term approach. But I'm struggling with defining my longer-term investing rules as opposed to short term trading.

Chris, you've mentioned how you trade stock in your IRA, can you share any about when you exit those trades? How do those rules differ from your shorter term trades?

Anyone else who wants to pitch in too would be great. Any help is appreciated.

On Iras what you could do is the following. Sell a put of a stock that you want to own. Ie: Deck lets say you bought it at 100. you could sell the 100 put one or 2 months out. That premium now is deposited into the account. The account has to be set up so your cash is in the money market earning now about 5%. Therefore if the stock closes above 100 by expiration you made the premium and the 5%. If you are really bullish on a stock you could become more aggressive and sell out of the money put with more time, in this scenario you make the move of the stock plus the interest of your money.

Some brokers do not let you sell puts on Iras, but I know TOS does.

The worst case is you own a stock as an investment if it goes down, but it still beats buying out right.

Also Fast is about to move fast today, good earnings and it should move 3.5 points if my analysis is correct.

Tim in this scenario you could sell the 45 put and make that premium if the stock closes above 45 august expiration you make the premium and interest.

David, if you naked short 1 DECK Sept 90P at 4. Your option requirement is $9000. This the reduces the amount you can trade by $9000 unless you enter into a bull spread.
Your making $400 + 5% and tying up $9000 in trading capital for 2 months.



C2, one last comment on REG. I am part of that open interest on the Oct 75's. I bought time the time. In a worst case scenerio if the market maker won't make an adequate market, I can, if the option is in the money, buy the stock and exercise the put.


Those of us who held onto MLM, good news. It's moving up nicely today. I think it might be back to its old self. I'm looking for CME to knock out it's all-time highs at 590ish.


Bottom Feeder,

I did not know what a boy shakira was so I looked at it on youtube. You own me a new keyboard because mine now has vomit it in.

Since the market is up today, looking for BEN to break out of the triangle (137) and make a move. Just something to watch.

Thanks for the HES play.


anyone get in nmx? I forgot about it, and looks like its too risky to try and get in now. any thoughts?

ahm still dropping
long island ny

I've got too many plays going to add any more. Just trying to watch and monitor and make sure I'm diversified and stop protected.
Haven't even had a chance to look at it. Plus I have two financial stocks already.


Jamie: I agree but I was trying to substitute the actual purchase of a stock.

Our equivalent of your IRA up here in Canada is called an RRSP (Registered Retirement Savings Plan) and we cannot trade options in it. So I tend to buy stocks that are more long term and give them a lot more lattitude. I also tend to look more strongly at the fundamentals. I look for lots of green arrows on an industry group that's just turned green or has been green for a while. MLM is a good example. I normailly would have left it alone earlier in the week but DECK looked like a better alternative and MLM had been threatening to peeter out for a couple of weeks. In hindsight I'm thinking I jumped the gun... as I think longterm MLM could be the better play. Right now I just have 6 stocks in my RRSP so it's easy to keep an eye on.

Jamie, thanks for the info on REG. I see mine has already traded today so I guess I'll call off the hounds. It's only down a dime today so I'm pretty happy. Also pretty happy with PCU (yet again) Here's another example of why you let winners run. Now up almost 400%.

Chip you're a Forex Maniac!!! Here I thought I was being so smart about jumping on some Canadian Pot for the Forex value but you've got me smoked, in that department. I know who I'm calling on when I need me some help on my dolla' issues.

I'm in Edmonton. Gotta go for a run and clear my head as I did an all-nighter last night and am doing another one tonight... to Halifax.

Today's a smiley day.


I like that. "Smiley Day." It's nice to have one of those in the market, especially in the summertime.


MA: Bounce

Peter V

Someone give me a pat on the back.

I tried buying 30 contracts of TDS Aug 70 calls for .15 about two weeks ago. Got filled for only 10.

As of today that trade is up 1034%!! $150 bucks is now $1550. Man, if only the other 20 filled..

Never satisfied


Did anyone take the NMX trade? Wow a $5+ move right out of the gate makes risk tough to manage. Unfortunately, this one got away from me it appears. Jeff right again!

I wanted to post this yesterday but Comcast decided to make major network changes in the middle of the day. Lovely.

Somebody had mentioned Cramer talking about a stock and while some of you may know the truth about him (and the market in general), perhaps some of you don't.

So here it is from the horses mouth:


Repeat after me:

"I'm a moron for selling DECK yesterday...
I'm a moron for selling DECK yesterday..."

Why am I the only one talking???

Pats on the back all around, for Rd. Thanks for sharing... I didn't even have TDS on my radar. Pretty gutsy move buying them so far OTM on such a short leash (I would have used a different word but I was concerned that the tender ears of the ladies might be offended... and all I need is more hammers coming at me.) Snaps all 'round, too. Nice call.

Michelle, you gotta have the odd smiley day, and this one's it for me. Bought DRYS yesterday and it's up 33% today. CTV has finally taken off, DECKs bouncing back, JWNs doing great... it's just one of those days.

So far.

Brett, ICE looks to be breaking out of your favourite (and Jeff's least favourite) pattern. Cup and handle. Sure like the looks of it, wish I could get in, but I'm all tapped out.

I would have sold DECK yesterday Brett but my Internet connection was down and so I didn't realize the damage (my stop wasn't hit either) until after the close.

If it makes you feel any better, I bought DRYS on 6/20 and sold on 6/27 intraday when it dropped below my diagonal spt. DOH!!!!


Jeff, Brett, Raimo

I was wondering if any of you guys could comment on how you turned your trading into a business. I am clueless when it come to this and was wondering if it is tough to do. If you have a website or something that you use and could point out I would certainly appreciate it. Thanks fellas.


Bob Raimo,
I think CME is going to bust through today. The volume is already high and the market is up.
What say you?


Brett and MLM is up 6 points in the last 2 days...ugh.

We are going to be in for a volatile couple of tradings days. Next week is Option Expiration and look at the list companies reporting Lots of financials...etc. The market cracked on sub-prime woes 2 days ago. MER, JPM, BAC, USB ( the list goes on)next week. The market will be looking at these earnings very carefully. It should be fun....with lots of whiplash.


Anyone look at SWIM when I mentioned it in late June? Nearly an 18% move since then (25% in the past two days.) Anyone brave enough to hold over earnings?



There's no easy answer to that question. I got an education from INVESTools, followed this blog from near the beginning, traded my ass off, made a lot of mistakes, blew up a small account twice, worked on myself, and got better. Then, I charted my progress until I felt I was ready and then borrowed a lot of money to trade with. I'm still very new at this relatively, so I can't tell you I've had a long and glorious career, but I am off to a very good start. I've been profitable 4 months in a row and last week my account grew more than I would have been paid in 9 weeks at my previous job. Notice I said 'my account grew' and not 'I made'. As evidenced by yesterday's sale of DECK, you don't make anything until you close your positions.

It's a long process and I'm still learning. Jeff will confirm that I still pepper him with rookie questions all the time. There is no magic website and no set of rules will get you where you need to go. You need to develop a feel for it and know when to break your rules. You also need to develop patience and discipline. If you don't have that, you'll never survive. A lot of people think they can read all the books and magically absorb these concepts through sheer osmosis, but you can't fight a war until you've been battle tested under fire enough so that your trigger hand is unshakable.

For what it's worth, i've been using INVESTools to store my charts and do my searches and Thinkorswim to trade on, though I'm now revisiting their commission structure to decide if that's really the best way to go.

The bottom line is this: You can't turn it into a business until you're sure you can have enough money to be profitable and you're sure you can make enough with that money to live on. It's a challenging and stressful endeavor but I can tell you I've never been happier.

Work harder than everyone else and you can succeed at it. It needs to be a passion and you need to strive to get better every day.

That's really all the advice I can give you right now.

To those who stayed in DECK, congrats, looks like waving the Red Flag brought the Bulls back!!!

Someone mentioned yesterday something about watching/waiting on a big day to see what would happen the next and then some extent I agree with that sentiment, although in my opinion it should be tempered with caution and based on each individual position.

For me, I really, really, really wanted to dump DECK yesterday, although I've noticed that when there is a big 'emotional' sell-off, the next day in many cases it will rebound, DECK actually has a history of this. The same is true of big up days, look at CMI a few days ago, when it shot up $11+, then came down and is still bouncing around. I think this is fairly typical behavior on big days.

Now I'm kicking myself for bailing on MLM on its big down day...lesson's learned...hopefully not to be repeated too many times!!!

Maybe Jeff can address the psychology and market behavior with us some time?

Brett, I had already written this when I read your post...nothing personal buddy...

SBUX is cooling off nicely!

VIP, keep going to the stars baby!

DRYS is making me...(sniff...sniff)!

AAPL is fruitilicious today!

POT, the other fruit!

BSC, COH and WTI are being raised by this tide, although this too shall pass...hopefully not like a kidney stone!

RD, Kudos to you on your trading acumen!

Chris...thanks...I think! :-)

Brett, thanks for the post above about full-time trading, that helps a lot of us that long to do this. Congrats again, continued Good Luck and Best Wishes!

Chris (or anyone watching),

During the last few days, each time I see a good set-up, when I look at the Implied Volatility, it's high due to earnings soon.
I would have entered DRYS yesterday as well, but thought IV was too high. Yet you are doing well with it. Am I putting too much emphasis on IV?

CME is going to break through the 590.00 level soon as all the sell orders are taken care of. A nice ascending triangle is forming at that level. All aboard!

Keep your eyes on TSL. I know solar stocks are hot now (FSLR), and if you look at a 9-month of TSL you'll see a BIG-TIME cup and handle. There's no breakout confirmation yet, but if it confirms, there's a $30 target. That's a 50% rise projected in 3 months. Does anyone's eyes open up wide at this opportunity?

anyone on AYI look at the reversal on the earnings move. THey had a great report but it went down due to housing. I think if it stays above the resistance line I think it will attract new buyers.
What say You?

Brett I am with you, what kind of mistakes did you make?
Myself, I am too emotional and do not let my winners run enough.

I am to emotional to the movements of the overall market, I am getting wiser, but heads up to the Yen trade, Paris Hilton going to jail, or interest rates etc, stifle my trading.

The let your winners run thing is very hard to achieve as I have gotten burnt so many times on the way up and down.
It is definitly not and easy job, I admire Jeff for his stamina and his attitude toward trading, I hope that is not a G-d given gift and one that you can learn.


It was Michelle who quoted Market Wizards… “If you find a position going against you and you need to get out, don't panic. Wait, maybe a few hours, maybe a day. The market moves around. Sometimes you can get out at a better price than if you panic. That DOESN'T mean holding a position and hoping it will go your way. That means take a deep breath and let the market settle and re-evaluate your position.”


I was discussing this issue with someone form work this morning. Not the quote, although the quote helps solidify thoughts. This issue is the BIG down day on BIG volume on a really stong uptrending stock with no news of the meltdown to be found. This happened to me three times in the past week and a half. Two NVTL and DECK I have been in since March and would not be where I am today if I didn’t have them. And MLM, a new position.

My thoughts, if the industy isn’t falling apart and the market isn’t falling apart and the equity has incredible strength, I have no problem giving it an extra day to see what transpires. NVTL, MLM and DECK have been good stories thus far. I know I have had this work against me before too.

If you are properly positioned, yeah a big down day on something you are deep ITM on can be painful (especially if you’ve been in it for a while), but it shouldn’t break you because nothing was realized.

Now I have to work and I will be back around 11 PM PST!

Have a good day!

Work can wait a minute...

Yeah Brett, I agree on TSL. I bought it for my IRA when it broke $50 last week and thought the same C & H idea yesterday and will buy the options in my option account when it makes its all time high.

Now, have a good day!


All poems and joking aside....

I have been with invest tools for over two years, as a student. I was doing well, earning 5-8% month. I had more than enough money that those %'s were enough for me to not work. My trading capital came from business I sold when I retired (I was 42 at the time)

I got the education of a lifetime when I lost more money than likely anyone here on the blog....over $100K. Not only that, but the extra money I had been making I invested in real estate, and now with my account being down significantly, life is not so easy with added monthly expenses and a lot less trading capital. Very stresssful. I lost money because I became a hog, stupid, risky, over confident, and basically screwed up royally. I forgot about all trading rules becasue it got easy...I would routinly buy 20 or 30 contracts on say google, or the same of CME or other expensive trades....poor MONEY MANAGEMENT, not following rules....OUCH...the week of Feb 27th while I was away in Canada for a week of snowmobiling I came to the poor house....

Enter JK Blog and Brett. These two men have changed my perspective, well, so did losing in a week well over 100K, but these guys have me on the straight and narrow now. I am up over 50% a month the past 3 in a row. Not easy, and I would certainly never count on it.

So, that is part of my plight. I want to help others here to re-pay my debt and appreciation to Jeff and Brett. They helped me, I want to do the same now for others.

So, if you want to do this for a living, here is my advice.

Whatever amount of money you need to earn to replace your current job, you should 1) have 6 months of reserve in your chekcng account to pay your monthly expenses that your current job now pays you. that is NOT trading capital, just reserves.

Then, 2)you need to have enough trading capital that earnng 5% a month will result in your current salary. 5% is not hard to do...not for me...YOU must KNOW that you can CONSISTANTLY get that rate of return... more than that, take it as a gift. And remember, it is not a profit until you cash in...

That being said.....

I want to thank again Jeff for this blog, all you bloggers, and a personal big thanks to Brett.

When Jeff and Brett speak (type), I listen (read)...

So that is how I got to do this full time..and love it.

I wish you and all OA's the very best...

Brett, Raimo:

Remember your post about companies that get bought out ... how they had spiked up about month earlier then leveled out in a trading range and they the buyout...che gives me that felling ... thoughts


OK ... crow being eaten in TN!

DECK ... out yesterday .. paying for it today (20% profit LOSS today already! ugh!). Another darn early exit ... But as many have said, the ONLY way you learn is by doing .. I did it! Hand slapped / butt kicked .. now moving on - into it again ...

Man! I never liked crow!


If I were in it having bought a few days ago, (I did not) I would be tightining up my stop, but let this winner run.

I would NOT enter a bullish trade now, FOR ME, too far away from a support area, had a big run up, and at a potential resistance area. I'd like to see it break the $592ish area with some good volume. then I'd get in, or wait for a retest of that, depending upon your rules. Or wit for it to pull back from here and get in at closer to a suport area..

My 2 cents...


I bought DRYS yesterday too. I look at the IV as being relative, while yes it may be high, although what is your risk/reward? I took that trade with the thought that if it went against me, I'd get out quickly, since it was not an ideal time to get in. Although with DRYS, it seems to move up for long periods of time and therefore if you wait, you miss it altogether until the next time.

IV will usually make the options more expensive and can also increase the spread. If you take the risk/reward into account relative to the IV, it can help you make your choices. Does that make sense?

Honestly, I don't get into the IV that much, if the option seems to be worth the risk/reward, I'll take the trade. I try not to over analyze too much as I naturally tend to do with many other things in life.

John Logan,

Thank you for finding Michelle's post/quote and also for the additional information. Your points are very well made and sound!


Thank you for your post above, you are a Prince for sharing your losses and woes. I appreciate your friendship and trying to help all, including myself.

I hope one day to be able to have the kind of returns and capabilities that you, Brett and JK do.

Thanks to all of the OAs for making this community what it is, a great place to learn and grow!!!

Hey Jeff

I've been absent for the last few days. I was just trying to catch up on a few comments - which is quite a task I'll tell ya. I just wanted to say I love it when you chime in. Don't for one second think that we don't want your input. As a matter of fact, when I don't have time to read all the comments I scan through the page looking specifically for yours. And, when you're not around we usually are all wondering where you are.
Don't you dare make yourself scarce. I think all of us would agree to that!



I just don't see the volume on CHE typical of a buyout rumor leak. Phenomenal price action, for sure, but no buyout. If you're in it, and you've been in for awhile, great job! If you're looking for a buyout, i'm thinking TRLG, BYI or BID.

nice post Brett, thanks for not sugarcoating it! if this was easy everyone could do it,,,i truely believe that the education and hard work it takes can not be understated.

best wishes


Not sure what your question really is??

If someone wants to buy out CHE, I would love to be in it when they do..

Correction: I didn't mean BID.

(drip, drip)
Judy (drip, drip)

Implied volatility is more of an artform than a science. It is (as the term states...) implied. When I see a stock that is at a point that I think it's going to do well... I want it, and I want it bad. If I have to pay a lot for it, I pay a lot for it. If it turns against me the chances are that the IV will still be high, because my entry rules dictated that if it turns against me it'll be within a week of buying it. If it takes off... who cares if the IV falls a bit. I'd rather make 300% on a stock I paid an extra 1% IV on.

I hate to say it but a lot of that stuff I operate better on a gut feeling than going to charts. DRYS is an awesome stock and worth owning. But wait for a good entry point. I broke my own rules on this one because yesterday really wasn't a fantastic entry point. I've got it on a very, very short leash. The minute it turns I'm getting out and waiting for a proper entry point. And who knows... maybe I'll even sell back into that high IV.

Hope this makes sense. Catherine says my logic is questionable sometimes... that's why the bag of hammers is always within arm's reach.


Let me clarify something here. I foolishly stayed in MLM because I waited until the last minute and then chased the trade. This is something that I have a problem with and have been both burned and rewarded for this practice. I need to change it because the process can be emotional. Yet another piece of the puzzle.

Have a good day.



I guess it wasn't a question but an observation ... when GTRC got bought out Brett had mentioned that he started to see a pattern in some of the companies that got bought out and the chart looked similar to CHE ... nice run up then leveled out then the buyout.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking on my part.


Bob you are correct in your observation of CME and I doubt your expertise. My situation was I took 80% of my trade off the table @ 10:00 clock today, the rest I'm watching. Did tou see It break through 190.00 and set off all those sell orders interesting huh!


Hey Chip,
That's scary. Look at your post to Judy, and then mine... they say almost exactly the same thing!! Ooooo are you my evil twin?

Bob R. Thanks for sharing your story. I think a lot of us think that you and Brett, and Jeff have sat down, studied, and POOF!! there you were, Ace Trader of the Universe. It's so relieving to hear that the aches we've all gone through are the same as everyone elses.

Winner of the day for me (as opposed to weiner of the day... which Catherine would tell you is me) is GRMN. Here's one that I'm thinking has GOT to be running out of steam, but it just keeps on going!

Brett, what's going on with ZOLT? It's idling today and I thought a market day like this would juice it up.

Man are you spoiled Chris!

You upset about a small consolidation after a quick 20% runup?

Wait until the buyout is announced.

This comment has been removed by the author.

Bob I meant to say I don't doubt your expertise. See what one word missing can mean.


Thanks for capturing more about IV...another nice thing about the fount of information coming out of this place.

Just read you're most recent post...Yes, Chris, our Mother never told you, they sent me off to the US and kept you in Canada to protect you from my evil ways!


The other things you said, aside from MLM, were great is what I was thanking you for, no problem!

Check out that DOW!

I haven't posted for a while but thought I'd share this.

I have a friend in the oil bus who is wild about KOG. It's a $5.25 stock so very speculative. But, I like the set up. You might want to check it out. I bought some today (along with EXP and CTSH - yesterday).

Let those bulls run!


Short: SBUX

Brent in San Antonio

Hey! I thought you guys were watching my back! I went away for a couple of hours this morning and come home to find my account down more than any one day. Ever. I don't get it. I expect my puts to be down on such an up day but what's going on with my calls??? ESV, JOSB and even JOYG are disappointing, to say the least. If the market is up close to 200 points and these can't get out of bed, I think it is time to jettison them.

I'm especially perplexed about JOSB. A HUGE gap and for no reason that I can discern. The only news that I read is positive about an increase in sales. Anybody have a clue? Is this a retail thing in general?

I can always count on you to bring me back down to earth. You're right, on a day like this I am spoiled. I will tuck my tail between my (lower part of my) legs and get back to looking for my next good entry.

I have seen several postings today lamenting lost potential earnings... for various reasons. I fell into that trap several times and found that it started getting me anxious to find that "Big Winner" that just HAD to be around the corner. I started jumping in to trades at bad times because I didn't want them to slip away and miss out on the next big tsunami of money that I just knew was around the corner. This is a bad trap to fall in to, guys (and gals.) Once you sell a stock, the only reason you should re-visit it is when it looks like a good re-entry point.

Like MLM. I sold it and I now think that may have been a mistake. I sold the stock and I now think I'll buy some calls on it. It's at a perfect entry point and I think as long as there's a Homeland Security... MLM will do well.

DECK on the other hand, I didn't sell and WWOOOHHHOOOOOO!!! ahem.... sorry...

MMM: Finally breaking out of it's ascending triangle.
Peter V

Brett, Raimo, thanks for the dialogue. I really appreciate it.

Here is an oldy but goody with a support bounce.....MA.

Haven't heard MA mentioned in awhile. I entered this A.M.

Karen,enjoying your CAT today.


Who knew. Wow, the DOW is up 181 points. I love days like this. Which stocks are moving the DOW up so much? Mine are all up but not anything significantly.



I'll go take my guns back out of my pick up truck and put them away, and cancel my trip to your neck of the woods...LOL

I'll even give you a tip...

CMG, unless it has been mentioned already, I can't keep up with everyones reco's...

Doji Girl,
Come here, and have a hug from my Doji Dog. Remember, it's not the market that's driving the stocks. What are their patterns doing? If they havent' broken their trends then they're still valid. I can't tell you the number of times that I've had a 5% gain on my account when the Dow's down 1% and then the next day the Dow bounces back and my account is down 6%. It's just the way the stocks move. Look at each one individually and forget about what the market did. JOYG had popped quite a bit in the past few days. It was due for a breather. Let it breathe. Like a good wine, it will improve with age and a bit of a breather.

By the way, don't you DARE go back and look at my question to Brett about ZOLT today. Do as I say, not as I do.

I'm off to breakfast now. Be back soon.

Its too early but I see and Acc Tria break out on the Dow!!



If I would have had a cup of anything, I would have pulled a Raimo and ruined a keyboard with your:

"DECK on the other hand, I didn't sell and WWOOOHHHOOOOOO!!!"

I hear you buddy, thanks, that cracked me up, out work!!! They're starting to wonder...even more...

Now having said everything I did about exiting early, I'm concerned about BSC and COH, Raimo, care to offer your perspective?

I have to look at my charts the night before and potential exit points ("areas"), otherwise, I have to draw my lines on paper!

I have an exit for:

BSC at ~$139, I kinda getting tired of this thing bouncing around...

COH at ~$49.50

Any one in RIMM..nice move up today..but still not quite a flag breakout..

ITT is looking good. DG I am in ESV and it is frustrating, but it is working as planned.

SKX I took it down to first support and I think it might break more to the downside, low risk right now.

ETN is working out close to the 100 level

SPWR anyone in this one? earnings and look at volume two weeks prior


Man that was so excellent advice. I really appreciate you both taking the time to type that out. Although the info you both gave was excellent, I think I did not properly explain what I was asking....I was trying to find out how to turn it into a business as far as tracking expenses and for tax purposes. I am sorry for the mix-up but am thankful for your messages and I have printed them both out for reference.



How did that experience of blowing an account affect your family and mentality? I think it would send me into a depression - or I would consider hanging it up for a while. You guys are troopers.

Bob, Thanks for the reprieve! I only have a sling shot! Talk about not being prepared. EMC buy the stock!

Thanks, Chris, for the encouraging words. But I just noticed something that may be worth noting here.... I looked at charts of the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P and notice they are ALL breaking out to the upside of their channels. So might this be a good time to get rid of some of the puts that have overstayed their welcome?

none of these are really participating in the rally today.
Any thoughts?

Jeff, What say you? One thing I read in the books is beware when the market rallies and strong stocks don't. Is that true?


Jeff, I just watched the video attached to this thread. HA!!! I love it!!! It just goes to show what a little POT and a Rasta dude can do, huh?

Long: POT, PCP

Short: CYMI It's down a bit today.

Doji Girl,
The way this market is lately, don't count on up days in a row. I would expect a breather day in the next few days or week. So even though the market is on fire, doesn't mean I would dump my puts.
Just my thoughts.



Pull up the 2 year chart and draw a hz line at $141.50. Then look at todays volume on BSC, and today is a big up day for the markets in general..Look at the ugly stick on 7/10 for BSC.

(yes, I see the resis at $145 as well)

Where is your exit now??

I think we are going to close below $135 soon enough..

I just listened to the Marketcast from last night and the NMX pick. Can anyone explain what they mean by "three green arrows"? They've talked about it before and it's obviously an "inside" thing I haven't figured out yet. Thanks!


Chip and Chris, Thank-you for your insights on I.V. I have been listening to Investools trading rooms, Master Talks, etc., for 1 1/2 yrs; paper-traded for 6 mo; have been live trading now for 9 mo. I have learned so much but sometimes I get analysis paralysis. I know that experience will come from trading and time. Jeff and the blog have helped me so much. Bless you all!

Doji Girl,
I think that the Dow has finally broken the resistance that it's been hitting it's head on for the last month... personally I think it's more likely to indicate we're on the next leg up.

But Catherine keeps emptying my glass, because if it's half full I refuse to say it's half empty. Someone once said "If a cluttered desk is the sign of a cluttered mind... what's an empty desk?" My desk is half cluttered, half empty.



I don't like at all what I am seeing on COH, but the day is still young..If you got in yesterday, you might b getting out today...but the R/R was good yesterday, right??

Raimo, very commendable...
So, that is part of my plight. I want to help others here to re-pay my debt and appreciation to Jeff and Brett. They helped me, I want to do the same now for others.

We need more people with that attitude. Thanks to Jeff and Brett for paving the way.


Are you an Investools student? If not, then you would not get what they are talking about. Investools has a method they teach about three green arrows means to buy. It's something you learn at the basic, basic level. As you progress, three green arrows is actually "late to the game" to trade. So when they refer to that, they are meaning that it is a "go" even for the newby who is looking for three green arrows before they buy.



3 green arrows refers to the stock price moving up over it's 30DMA, the MACD giving a green arrow and the STOCHASTICS giving a green arrow,which is what Invest Tools teaches...


There were many days I left work dazed and confused. There were many nights I went to bed telling my wife I can't do it anymore. Then I woke up and said, "Who am I kidding? This is what I love to do." And I worked harder. I analyzed every trade. I watched the results of my mistakes, even more than my successes. Anyone can get lucky in the market. It's really hard to take a lot of losses and see the big picture.

On some of those big drawdown days, analyze your positions and remind yourself that sometimes you're planting the seeds for future growth. Every trade in your account should have the potential for big gains or it should be removed.

As for running it like a business, just get a good spreadsheet (Kelly Allman distributed one that I could email out) and keep accurate and detailed records.


Thanks, yes, entered COH yesterday and yup was prepared to exit quickly if it went against me and if that is today, then so be it! As you said the day is young!

BSC, okay pulled up the 2 year and yes, I can see the BIGGER PICTURE, thanks, that helps! I feel so much better that you put the guns know us military types, we're gun shy!


remember last week GOOG was up when the market was down?? I recall GOOG keeping someones account up on a big down day. Stocks don't always follow the markets in general, right? They have a life of their own. They make up the market.

Earnings coming up too....

Trend intact,looking good.

D'OH!!(ji Girl) Man am I a dolt!!! I read your question about dumping puts and my (half empty) mind saw "calls". Someone find me another Rasta dude.

After 2/27 I will never EVER run around without some protective puts in place. This market is all over the place and there are enough stocks in a pretty strong down trend that they can survive a day like this. And if they break their pattern I ditch them before they hit 1% and look for the next one. Today I have 5 puts and they're down a total of $385. One put is up $25 (CYMI) and my calls are all up. Cheap insurance and not worth getting rid of just because of one big day on the market. I got cocky on 2/26 and was in all calls. Then I didn't put stops on them, mental or physical.

I was (as they say at "The Home") a lunatic.

Don't ditch the puts unless you've got more to replace them with.


I let my accountant handle everything....

except cleaning my guns...

You're obviously not an Investools student so I'm wondering how did you find us tucked away in this little corner of cyberspace?

Anyone else watching RIMG? Other than the obviously awesome name, this stock looks like it's breaking out of a pennant en route to a major run. Earnings coming up, but i think this one is one to take a small position on and let run.

GVA a nice break today..potential 6pt move..


BSC - so you're saying that 145 is your line in the sand for resistance? THat's .05 from where we are now. It it closes over here you're out?

Also HON....

Doji Girl-

You're right. I'm not an Investools student. Shhhhh! Don't tell anyone. ;) I hope this isn't an Investools only blog, because I'm learning tons from the info that's passed along here. BTW, this blog came recommended for a newbie like me by a friend who is into Investools.


In answer to your question about RIMM, I bought in partially yesterday (anticipatory) and will load up the rest once it breaks/closes above 217-ish.

Are you in or waiting?


BSC high for the day so far was $141.55, which is coincidentlay (how the heck do you spell that??) where I have a resistance line. But my original resistance line, the one in which I will bail out, was a close above $145...I will probably bail on this if it closes above the $145 mark,which was my bail out before I took the trade... but I think it is at resistance now...

Look at GS, it too is hitting its head today at resistance. And on a big up day. The down days for these stocks are coming.

Welcome. The blog is open to anyone and everyone. Even morons like me. You will find your watch list will have about 250,000 stocks in it, though. Makes it hard to thumb through them every day.

Welcome. No, there is no secret Investools club here. Anyone who wants to learn about stocks is welcome. Jeff is a great teacher.



I am on the Tarmac with RIMM, awaiting clearance for take-off..

GS - I see the resistance you're talking about...but I also see a triangle that could break either way.

No, I wasn't worried about GOOG. I was just noticing that HALF my stocks are not participating in the rally. That, to me, is a little troubling. I haven't been doing this long enough to know if I should be concerned or it's no big deal. I noticed MLM struggling for about a week before its big drop. I wish I had paid attention to my instincts and scaled back. I am just pointing this out in case there is something there I need to be aware of and am too ignorant about the market to know.


I had a small stock position on RIMM and got stopped out yesterday.
I am not sure if it has anything left in it after that 40 point move. I have it on my watch list, though.


I'm looking at RIMG and it doesn't seem like your normal pick since it's a microcap with very little daily volume. Nice pattern but is there a story here?


For fun...

I have it breaking out of a traingle to the downside on big volume and price action on 6/22 and 6/23.


A flag pole heading down from 6/20 to 6/26, then flagging, then breaking out of the bearish flag on 7/10


Re-testing the traingle breakout (the breakout on 6/22) on 7/3 and 7/4.


a bounce off HZ resistance today at $220 ish


A bounce off $215 as support!!!!

And I am sure their are others that may see things differently!!

BSC twice now tested the $141.50 mark...which way will it go, that is the question...

How about APH finally moving

GS I think it would go down before up

MFC wants to get out

THere is a new issue ( year old ) ACM, it was featured on IBD the other day, It does engineering work fork industrial and infrastructure. I think it has a good potential to move. low risk right now anyway.


BSC: could be a little double-top forming on the

Thanks for pointing out the two head bangs!

Burn baby burn!

You are too funny.


DG - no, i just like the name.

How about CIB? Anyone like a monster in the making?

I'm in RIMM as well. Waiting for the next move higher to add to the position. Which might be the close today. I bought in after the news on their clearance to provide service in China. Very speculative, since they were already extended. I think they still have a lot of room for upward movement.

Long on copper (FCX and PCU).

Short on home builders (KBH and LEN). Not even an all time high on the DOW can move these guys higher.

All this talk about MLM and DECK. You can always buy back in. If the stock crosses your line in the sand, you get out. MLM could just as easily have gone down another 6 points yesterday or today. Instead it's rebounding and offering a new entry point. I sold my MLM on Tuesday for a small loss, but I will probably be back in by the close.

Great comments on the blog today. Thank you to all of the participants.

Joel R.

Does anyone still have a put on PAY?
It is breaking above a diagonal resistance line of 36.55, which may be my exit at closing? Any thoughts?


There is a company out there called Traders Accounting that specializes in helping people get their trading business up and running. They have various packages that you can purchase (getting the company established, accounting for 6 months, taxes, etc.). I haven't used them yet, but I do know a few people that have. I also recall some of the Investools instructors recommending them. You might want to check them out.

A long time ago, i sat through Jeff's price patterns class. Again and again. Over and over. The same class. Over and over. Why did I do that? So I could understand the patterns as best as I could.

And I took that knowledge with me last week when I bought a bunch of EXM calls on the triangle breakout. I'm quite certain that stock has lost its mind.

I post this not to brag, since I've had plenty of losers to not brag about. I post this for 2 reasons:

1) Patterns DO work. Sometimes they don't, but we trade them because when they work, they REALLY work.

2) Minimum targets. Had I sold yesterday when my target was hit, I'd have missed a 7%+ move today.

CIB looks REAL interesting. Might have to jump on that one.

Joel, the builders may be down but the other real estate stocks (the ones I own puts on) are up - AIV and KIM.

Hey Brett CIB looks good but the spreads are crazy in that stock, maybe an outright purchase of the stock
BBD is alos breaking,

talking about patterns what do you think about OIH?


I bailed out yesterday..


KIM, AIV, KBH and LEN are all real estate stocks, but there is a difference between the first two and the last two.

KIM is in commercial real estate - shopping centers and such, AIV is in apartments/rental management. The commercial side of real estate is actually booming (you wouldn't know it from the trend of these stocks, but you would from stocks like CAT, DE, BUCY). KBH and LEN are residential home builders. There market is the end consumer, which currently has a huge surplus of homes to choose from and faces higher interest rates and tighter lending standards. This makes their business very difficult, they are losing money for completed houses that sit on the market as well as undeveloped land and land that they've lease optioned but won't develop on. Technically homebuilders are doing lousy and fundamentally they are in deep, deep trouble. That spells lower lows to come for KBH, LEN, CTX, DHI, HOV and the XHB.

Of course that's my opinion, I could be wrong (it wouldn't be the first time).

Joel R.

Wow, what is with the traffic on the blog today! I can't keep up. You all are going to have Jeff taking it personal again as he is not blogging and we (really you all) are blogging a storm.
I will have to catch up with your comments later, no time to read them now. I did see one from Michelle I think on strong stocks not acting like strong stocks in a strong up market. That is just what is going on with my trades. BSC and UNFI are more than offsetting all the up move (small as they may be) in the majority of the bull trades. I read the same caution in probably the same books.

I'm still in PAY too. I see it ramming up against resistance. Repeatedly. But it hasn't broken it yet.

Speaking of PAY it looks like it could be making an inverse H&S
David,on CIB, I didnt notice any wide spreads when I bought some just a bit ago, ?? It did try to put a higher price in the box when I cliked on the ask though. I just manually changed it back and got filled
Jerry F

New post everyone...



I agree with the getting back in. I have found that riding past a line in the sand only leads to "it will come back syndrom".

Holy sheep-s?!$ Batman, the blog is crazy today. Not sure who mentioned it the other day but yes I was looking at the ICE C&H forming a bit ago but feared the wrath of Jeff on the cast.

Ramo, you mentioned tarmac any aircraft exits in your background?


gb hardcore, I fell out of an airplane once, does that count?

Change cups everyone

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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