$emis

Anyone seen Transformers yet? Me neither. I doubt there are too many out there that understand the transformer heritage like myself, and that might be due to the fact that I am old enough to be your child. However as a kid I subscribed to the entire transformer catalogue. My first actual toy purchase of my life, with my own hard earned money was an Optimus Prime action figure.

Optimus prime transforms into a cab over semi truck and not to mention holds the postion of commander or the Autobots and upholds and protects the entire universe around him. A hero of the highest caliber both on Cybetron and on Earth.

I highly recommend enlisting for the film this weekend, even though I haven't seen it. You can't go wrong with such a unique story line, and Michael Bay & Steven Spielberg putting this together. That ought to be $100 well spent.

Now on to the greatest Semi in the galaxy, the SOX. If you were to conduct a relative strength comparison between the broader markets, you'll notice that the NASDAQ has upheld a trend more so than the S&P or the DOW. The quiet storm behind this trend has been Semiconductors (SOX). Take a look at the performance on the 1 year.

With such a great trend, I urge you to consider at least throwing down an August vertical spread to capture the free money that is wasting away in these put options. If you are a pessimist about the market, here is a great reason to throw down the 550/560 Bear Call.

If you would rather wait for a breakout, or prefer to avoid trading the SOX, check out the SMH below. It's trading just over $40 and options here are cheap. This should be a great investment as Semis are a leader, and it appears that so many individuals are scared of the market at the moment. The majority claim that it can't go higher. Which is a great indicator to buy anything and everything that will fit into your account. What can I say, I am a contrarian.


Since was forced to look at a 5 year chart today, I looked at several. Here are some additional long term trades I cam across. Have some fun!

VMCSo much for being bullish on materials, huh? I have been waiting for this pig to break support and loaded up on some puts.

STT


Nice triangle break on State Street, looking for this stock to hit $80 in six months.

RTP
The Market Gods provided the dip, and waited until a week before earnings. Decisions, decisions.

RLI
Another Triangle breakout on the long term chart. 10-12$ movement expected over the next year or more. What's your time horizon?

LRW

Ooohhh...Yeeaahh.
JNPR

Another breakout. In fact, whoever it was that mentioned this stock in the comments yesterday, kudos.

HUM

$15 points in 8 months. I love this stock.
On to the short term charts, did anyone see the IPO on MF this morning?

Is that a hammer, or hanging man :)

Recommendation: Check out Transformers

Long: Semi Conductors

Short: Decepticons


By the way, I was up all night creating this video. I blow the competition away at the costume parties.


Jeff,
I saw this movie with my family on the day it came out. It was a great movie. I think like so many things our superheroes are cycling. My 5 and 7 year old know all bout the transformers. The best way to get them to read is to get out the books on the transformers and let them at it. I guess those of us who grew up watching these heroes like spider man, superman, X-men etc, are now in a position to bring them all to life in the big screen. And so far I think they have done a pretty fantastic job.
Anu

Yes, to avoid confusion, I have gone from Bob to Rambo..must be the pic..

Jeff - I will have to read your post again. For a second I thought you were recommending spreads. Two of them in fact.

Making mental note to go see Transformers. I did not know this movie had a history in children's toys. I am: Old.

Lisa,
Please take at least some of those SLB profits off the table! Being in love with a stock is a dangerous thing especially at earnings. Emotions are verboten here in OA land. What happens to you if they release stellar earning but the stock drops $5 just because it can?

Wow Jefe-

would you say you have a plethora of charts?

Yes El Guapo...

I have a plethora.

jeff is that a three amigos reference?

if so, can i be ned nederlander?

I got a little confused on the SOX chart. You are giving two trades one a bear call spread if you are bearish and a vertical spread if you are bullish?

THe sox seems to be flagging so a break to the upside of the flag should put the bear call spread in trouble correct?

on the SMH it could head back down on the above resistance so you would wait for a break before taking the trade?

help :)

Jeff, Hanging man or hammer? Neither - in your picture the shadow is not twice the length of the body.

Great job on the video you stayed up all night to make. (wink-wink)

--Patti

Having read the blog, I have noticed
Two guys that have recently focused,
on finding out my true name
by hunting me down like prized game,
they threaten me with guns and ammo
and use names like Chip and Rambo,
Night vision, topos and GPS
I really should be scared I guess,
but I know what they can not
there is someone who will put a stop,
to this reckless Phantom hunt
someone who is not a runt,
who has carved an OA on his chest
and he's taller than the rest,
you know this guy, we are all fans
it is none other than KOHLERMAN!
so Rambo, Chip, drop your gear
OR KOHLERMAN will soon appear,
and before you even know it
more verse will appear from the Phantom Poet!!

Now I have to get back to trading. Writing poetry is killing my account.

Is anyone still in NM wow

Thanks, Jeff.
Got in RTP a couple days ago and added first thing this morning. You guys mentioned it on the Market Cast last week and we got us some when it corrected.

Michelle

Phantom Poet yes I enjoy what you write
But I think that your thong you wear it to tight
At your computer and looking to trade
Some picture I bet, my god what a sight

Now you said I was stunted and made fun of my weenie
But I bet it is you who is espeially teenie
In fact you could say that I hold my own
Perhaps it is you, who is thin like linguini

You likened me sir to perhaps some kind of freakness
But can you hang with those in the preakness?
I have gonads, some call it "hutspa"
I, Phantom Poet, show no signs of weakness

Now Mr. Phantom we must both act like a leader
I am getting concerns over our friend bottom feeder
OA apparall Mike said he'd don some butt floss
I'd see Mike, as a chart reader

VA beach girl, she also has hutspa and class
And thongs don't belong on a mans hairy a$$

So Phantom Poet come out of the dark
show us your name we don't bite we just bark

Could the Phantom Poet be Benton??

--Patti

Anyone have a bearish trade at resistance?

BTU is up the past two days and close to resistance.

Hi all,
I have a question for the flag experts in the group. Have a look at the flag breakout on TGT, is the volume high enough to confirm a break? Any thoughts on this subject would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
Jeff

Amy,

I see these as bearish near resistance:
HCP, MLHR, NICE, AF, CASY, KIM,and MAN.

--Patti

TGT

Depends on how you draw your flag. I do not have my lines drawn that this is breaking out. The current price is still within my flag...

Thanks, Patti.

AHM going to zero??? this has been a great trade.
btu hopefully turns back around

gh
long island ny

CE News changes everything. A really nice trend has hit the brick wall. Thank goodness for stop orders.

Raimo,
If the price was out of your resistance line, would the volume be high enough?
Jeff

SYNA support bounce

Rambo,

I'm swing trading on BTU ... sold half of the position yesterday for profit ... will watch and buy back some at resistance ... This one looks 'swingish' to me because of that channel - at least at this point ..

Chris ... Glad you stayed in GRMN?? Nice rebound today!

great poetry, PP and Rambo.

I have exited my SLB NOV 90 calls, up 50% and too close to ATM to feel comfortable leaving them over earnings.

I have stops at 100% gains on the rest so if the world, as we know it, comes to an end tomorrow I will at least have doubled my money. Thank you for your comments, and DG, while I say that I'm "in love" with it... I am simply addicted to this particular money making machine. You're absolutely right, there is no room for emotions in trading... i just can't help smiling.

You all ROCK... I hope your trades continue to do well.

Basstrader,

No, it is not. Volume is the confirmation. HOWEVER, if the current price was bouncing off a trendline within a pattern that was forming, then I might take the trade anyway, since on a bounce, volume not needed..

Raimo,

Too funny! Damn, now I have to repond. Probably not today. I am creatively drained.

PP

I am still in LCC. It is consolidating. LCC, U.S. Airways, is in the lowest ranked industry group. Do you suppose the bullish market is keeping this thing from falling?
Chris mentioned the summer season may be why the stock hasn't fallen. Any thoughts?

Sorry Phantom,

i am sure yours will be good...

Raimo,
Great thought, thanks for the insight.

Brett,

Suddenly having a problem with my e-mail. I can receive bu tnot send.

I am doing the same as you buddy..and aching over it...

Jeff,

I'm confused as well, are you bullish or bearish on the SOX?

Patti,

Just kidding on the candle pattern reference. I hope you saw my sarchasm.

DavidS- The bear call idea would be setting a spread outside resistance, as you can see, there might be hesitation to break this level.

Dusty Bottoms

Decisions, decisions….. I have a PCP position that is up over 200%. I will be traveling tomorrow and will miss the trading day except for the first half hour. I plan on unloading the position before earnings on Tuesday. Two trading days…. A tight trailer will only hurt my unrealized gain with a big gap down on Monday assuming it makes it that far…

Hmmm….. Tight trailer wins!

Check out the move over support on DSW today in conjunction with the bounce off trendline support and a little reverse head and shoulders.

Any input out there on the utilities? My puts did well a couple of weeks ago and then got stopped at near break even. Re-entered on the next leg down only to get slammed. Time to flip the scrip and go long?

Sarah,

I tried to speak in bullish tongue, but left an "option" for the bears.

3 min. to close and the GOOG July 540/530 bull puts are still holding value. Keeping fingers crossed for good numbers here in 30 min.

Oh, nice movement on DECK today

Brett,

sold all my Julys..

Raimo-

As i told you, i sold mine too. Thank GOD.

You got that right. Me too. I kept ONE aug contract...whew...glad we chatted too...reinforced the right thing to do...

GOOG - I'm not in this but watching the numbers fly on the afterhours since they released their earning and missed by .03. Wow. -26 but really moving so fast I can't keep up.

Brett..

Going to $510.. glad we got out? You bet...see what missing by a few cents does...jeeeesh..

I hear you! Sold my GOOG at 14:56!

Goog job J Logan...smart..

This MTN is setting up to be a beauty. Check out the volume and the bounce off the trendline. Throw in the ascending triangle and you've got a Jeff Kohler-presentable price pattern.

Raimo, a very large percentage of the time I don't hold over earnings. Unless, of course, I have the right position size and have done a little homework, which I did not have in GOOG since I bought my option when the stock was at $514 and there aren’t too many GOOG options that I would be willing to lose the entire premium.

I liked the last name usage on the posts that I decided to give it a try…

I hear ya Logan

check out EQIX...

EXP also at a nice entry within a pattern...though I think I would wiat till after earnings on this..that may give it the pop it needs..

Brett, Oooo I like MTN thanks. That is in a watchlist somewhere but had not seen it yet.
Not sure I am experienced enough yet to trade that SOX trade Jeff, but I see your Dusty Bottoms and raise you a Harry and Rosy Bottoms (sorry Pam). When I was a kid someone in my church knew a Harry and Rosy Bottoms. Also to prove how old I am my son has the newer version of that transformer.
This was one of the best days in the market I have had is months. PCP leading the way.

Brett,
You in AAPL?

I also sold my GOOG July's and kept one AUG. That one will be scrOOGled tomorrow.

EGLE what a bounce off support this A.M.

Raimo, EQIX I threw out the other day. Entered a half position on 7/13 and added the the half today.

Jamie

Screwgooled tomorrow, LOL...yeah, well, hey, we got some time to look for a rebound. I suspect $510 will hold..I have a diag trendline starts on the bottom of the candle on 10/04/2006 and runs up to the bottom of the candles on 6/14-15/2007. Add to that HZ support at $510...otherwise it is going to fall to $480. Hard to believe a company of its size can still show a 28% profit and not satisfy the dummys at wall street. Give me a break..

After hours one thing, see how things set up in the am...

Jamie,
A half postion??

GOOG

"After subtracting commissions paid to its advertising partners, Google's revenue was $2.72 billion - about $40 million above analyst projections."

Your wall street geniuses..this was not good enough..go figure..

This was maybe the best market day I've ever had. I broke my own rules yesterday and loaded up a little on FCX, maybe a double position size. It has been sooo reliable on the bounce, and ... it was again thank goodness. (I'd be kicking myself...). When the market was going down down and it was bouncing off resistance and heading up up, I jumped on board.

Anyone else jump in?

I know, I've still got to work on that whole emotion and risk management thing. Nice to turn out on the good end though, this time.

James H.

John,

Good for you! It appears you sold your GOOG just before it dropped into the abyss. It is currently trading down $43 in after hours trading. Sheesh! That is an over-reaction. It should bounce some tomorrow. There could be a good entry point around where it lands. That's more than a 50% retracement.

--Patti

Jamie,

I was just reading the comments from last post. I've been bullish on FWLT for awhile also. I put both FLIR and FWLT in my watchlist at the same time when they were coiling in March. Both have been nice, FLIR especially. Looks like it might be FWLT's time now though.

James H.

Brett,

Did you trade the last triangle on MTN? Did anyone?

I just copied and pasted to a word document, for printing of course, all posts since the OA gear post to bring on the plane tomorrow since work and home life are leaving me in arrears…. 87 pages!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is with all the margins pulled out as far as they go and changing the font as small as my aging eyes will allow. That should get me to Newark, NJ…

That is a lot of talking. I picked a tough time to take a break.

GOOG down 42 dollars in afterhours trading. For those of us holding, doesn't look good. Wow. I think I will take off my stops and hold and let it rise back up. Otherwise, all of that money is flying in the wind.

Michelle

I got clobbered! Looking to take a max loss on the July bull put spread.
Lesson learned: Whenever you think, there is no way this bull can shed 25 lbs. in 2 min.... It will prove you wrong and then some. Who ever bought my $440s... congrats! I'll get you next time.

Ugh... worst trade to date is going to be the best lesson learned.

hey DG,

are you still in ESV?

j.M

Ryan,

My BEST lessons have been my costliest .. wish it was different but it wasn't. But the good news for me is, I didn't do it again (as bad!)

You'll recover and you will get it back. The market has NO RIGHT to your money ... Go after it!

j.M,
Yes, I am still in ESV.

Re GOOG - I made the mistake last quarter of holding a spread over earning thinking it wouldn't drop 20 points. It dropped 30 and I closed out my trade for max loss and then it rallied. Lesson: Don't GOOGle over earnings.

Ever.

No Jeff, but I do like Vail.

Seriously i've been watching this stock forever and did not take the last triangle. I know this is a little anticipatory but i like the bounce with the potential for a blockbuster move. And I like Vail.

Now get to work on the 42 emails I sent you this afternoon.

I don't google period, silly I know. I so wanted to buy the flag awhile back when Brett mentioned it but I am building off a 10K account with the options training.
Earnings....earning. Sitting on some 65 AUG for CRDN and wondering. see no wide gaps so I suppose a tight stop will keep me on the profit side at least. Still debating a rule on how to handle flags once the target is reached...Sometimes your the windshield and sometimes your the bug I suppose. Any thought ther Logan?

GBHARDCORE

Dojo Girl,

Heya - just wondered if you held MHK over earnings, seems that they posted an eps of $1.68 (.10 better than the expected 1.58)

if you still have positions, will be an interesting open tommorow

Pete :)

Doji Girl,
I will NEVER hold GOOG over earnings again. But I have learned from CME not to panic. Sometimes it will rise back up in a few days or weeks and the loss is not so ugly. Bet people with stops on are going to trigger it lower in the morning, though. Never had a stock drop this much in afterhours. It will be a painful lesson, but one I'm sure I needed to learn.

Michelle

Raimo and Brett,
Could that be some market manipulation on GOOG. I thought the only people trading after hours was the big boys. Somebody dumping some stock to manipulate the price?? It's over my head.

Michelle

Thanks for the support everyone. It always help to know I am not alone in the every secluded work of trading. I have been fighting looking at various P/L on the TOS analyze tab. Good lord, those $550s would have made a killing!

Thankfully the other 60% of my new positions are green. All hail diversification and position sizing. Don't hate the player, and learn to love the game!

Jeff,

I wasn't sure whether to e-mail or blog this question...here goes...

Instead of using mechanical stops,
I have been exiting when calls close below Support or puts above Resistance. However, I have been reading my notes from a Master Talk which you did on April 4th.

You taught that when buying an ITM option (1 strike ITM), don't lose more than 1/2 of the premium. When 2 strikes ITM, don't lose more than 30% of the premium. When OTM, risk the entire premium.

My question is, if I do not want to lose more than 1/2 of my premium, would it not be better to set a mechanical stop based on the premium? If I don't, and I wait for the close, I could lose more than this. I hope I am making sense. I was looking at CE today...I am glad that I was not in it, but if I had been and had waited until the close, I would have taken a beating.

Thanks for your help.

How do most of you find after hours data? Is there a easier way than IT? Would be nice if it showed on the charts after hours, visual guy I guess. What do you use?

Pete,
I ditched MHK yesterday, thankfully. I see it is down nearly $6 in after hours! I bought it on bounce off support but anticipating an ascending triangle breakout. It broke that support yesterday on fairly high volume never making it back up to the top of the triangle and I decided that didn't bode well enough to HOE. So I closed the trade for a small loss.

Now I have to decide what to do about my NTGR position. I still have a week before earnings on that one and I am riding it. NTGR has a tendency to pop $5 or so on earnings and then do nothing for the next few months. Last quarter I bought stock because I waited too long and the ivol was high. Took the $5 pop and exited. This time I bought early and have been riding it up. It has hit the top of my channel and I might take profits on half and let the rest ride. The options have doubled since I bought them 9 days ago.

Bob (&P),
On IT, the charts don't move to show the after hours but the quotes on the left side show the real time numbers as they move. Also, if you use TOS, the TOS charts will show the actual movement. Tick by agonizing tick. I keep the TOS charts set to 3 days 15 minutes to help time entries and exits.

GOOG and market manipulation..

These wall street wizards need to get there head out of there A$$. A company misses WALL STREET estimates (NOT GOOGLES AS THEY DO NOT FORECAST)by a few pennys, but profits exceed their expectations by 40 mil...and the stock tanks over 7%? Yet MSFT Xbox repairs cost their shareholders .08, did MSFT tank?? I think manipulation runs rampid....

I am just thankful I got out with all but 1 Aug contract..

Let's see waht tomorrow brings...I'd like to see $510 ish hold up and go up from there..use a fat crayon..

For after hours

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingcharts.aspx?mode=frameset&kind=&symbol=GOOG`&selected=GOOG&FormType=&mkttype=AFTER&pathname=&page=afterhours

Patti:

I am truly flattered that you would even 'wonder' if I am the Phantom Poet! I WISH I could write anything that rhymes.

"The rain in Spain flows gently on the plain" .. Does that sound like someone that could step up to compete with Raimo/Rambo or Phantom .... Don't think so!

And Raimo or Rambo ... which is it? I've seen both today and can't decide which it is now. Having some type of split personality disorder??

Thanks for the entries again today everyone! I never pass a day on this thing that I don't learn something from you traders!

Raimo,
I have never had a stock tank like that after hours. Well, actually never tank that much period. It is a sobering experience. I am still in shock. I thought that CME situation was nail biting. Whew. How long have you been trading? Does this "hard lesson" stuff ever get any easier? About when I make back money, I have it all taken away again. No wonder most people don't make it as traders.

Michelle

Raimo,

You mentioned in your last poem
that you like to "hold your own",
typing would be easier remember
if one hand wasn't holding your member,
so let the little fellar free and very soon you will see,
how much easier it is to be blogging,
when you're not busy flogging.

Today's composing has cause me to tire,
and I'm worried of our fellow blogster's ire,
I'm sure they know this is all in good fun
and I have a feeling neither of us is done,
I still have chosen to avoid the fame
by not disclosing my true name,
and Patti, I forgot to mention
my name really is not Benton,
so, my nemesis Raimo, I will say adieu,
tomorrow we can continue this anew.

The Phantom Poet

Rambo, thanks I have added that to my list of tools.
Michelle and all in GOOG I am feeling your pain, even though I did not take the trade. I have not normally watched after market and this GOOG event sure gives a wake up call to do so.

Bob (&P) yes, I'm thrilled I held GRMN. Thank you Brett and Rambo for your sage thoughts on it. I was leaning to holding it, but your words of wisdom cemented my thoughts. DECK was up again, too.

Unfortunately I can't get into Interactive brokers and I need to dump RTI and WNR tomorrow. Also wanted to put a stop in on SLB as I hadn't noticed that earnings are out tomorrow. And tomorrow we're off to MarineLand to celebrate my oldest daughter's 17th birthday. Oh brother, this could be a wild day!!!

Michelle, all I can tell you is that I lost 50% of our account on 2/27... survived multiple hammer attacks and being run over by cars... and am now 3% above where I was on 2/27. I absolutely guarantee that a keen, intuitive student like yourself will bounce back... if this GOOG thing turns out to be as bad as you're believing, right now. Sometimes I get so overwhelmed, that I just sell everything and sit back for a couple of days and start all over. There are times that trades just get all messy-like.

Those with connections please pray to the options gods for me. I'm feeling very "out there"... unprotected for a full day. Mind you, I was unprotected today and had my second best day ever. Some would say that protection is over rated.

My goodness. I'm just checking our account from today's activity (as I was in the air all day) and DRYS was up over 10%!!! Holy Moly!! I wish I could remember who put this one back on my radar a couple of weeks ago. I know we're not allowed to fall in love with inanimate objects... but I'm now into my second big gain on this baby. I will not get emotional, I will not get emotional... but could someone pass me a tissue? I think I might weep.

Judy,

One correction to that...

the general rule is,

ITM- 30%
ATM- 50%
OTM- 100%

This is a "general" rule that is found in IT materials, but you've probably heard me say this before, I don't use this. In fact I think it is ridiculous.

I still use my exits based on support & resistance and still primarily trade OTM options where I am willing to risk the whole premium... although I don't usually find myself taking the entire loss.

The reason I say this rule is silly is because a percent is irrelevant when you can determine you are wrong before you hit this percent. Try to be all about taking small losses. I don't think you need to lose 30, 50 or more percent of an option. If your entries are right next to your exits, you should be able to take smaller losses.

Hey Jeff or anyone else,

Have you had any luck getting a decent fill on the SOX? I tried selling spreads over the past months when it was going sideways and found the market makers very stingy with giving a decent fill. Since it only trades on one exchange, it has a bit of an antitrust feel to it. Just wondering if anyone has had a different experience.

So no one but Jeff is fessing up to having played with Transformers when they were younger, huh? Alright, I have enough beers in me…I admit, I had a ton of them growing up. You might just see them hit eBay soon, too.

Anyway, the movie was good for anyone who’s interested. It eases new audiences in so you don’t have to have seen the cartoon to understand the background (yeees, there’s a cartoon) and it leaves an opening at the end for sequels. Would you expect anything different from Hollywood?

Jeff, I’m assuming that you’ve seen the cartoon, so you’ll get a kick out of the first time Optimus Prime speaks. They found the original guy and his voice is still spot on…very cool.

Feel free to take your shots, people…this is as dorky as it gets.

Cheers,
Dave

A boy once lived in a Dormer,
Whose love was to be a performer,
He tried trading stocks
But it was too big a shock,
Now he plays with his silly transformer.

Hey, at 6:00AM it's the best I can do. I got onto Interactive brokers so all the prayer work can stop. Thanks anyway. I'm sure it was all your fervant pryers that opened up IB. I can now go off to Marineland with clear conscience.

Have a great trading day, all.

Thanks, Chris.
I felt like someone socked me in the stomcach yesterday. But even if I lose all the money in the options, I will not stop trading. Yes, I felt tempted to close out everything, but my other trades are doing excellent. I would be shooting myself in the foot over one bad trade. All I could have done differently is not trade over earnings. It was not breaking resistance. One thing I should have done differently is limit my position. I appreciate your encouragement more than you know. I feel like you and Catherine are old friends. I will pick myself up and begin trading today. But getting burned over earnings was probably something I needed to happen so I will be more cautious in the future. I had some positive news happen over earnings, now I've had the other.
Have a great day. We'll see you in a day or so.

Michelle

Michelle,

I planned around earnings twice with RIMM and twice got burned by getting out BEFORE earnings. So when GOOG got set to report yesterday I spent the day trying to alter my original plan, which was to sell yesterday. I tried to convince myself that it was worth holding half my calls, but the truth is, it's gambling to do that, and we're not here to gamble, we're here to manage risk.

Sometimes it's worth holding over earnings, but those times are when:

1) you plan for it originally
2) you have enough time following the earnings announcement
3) you take some profits off the table before the earnings announcement to protect against the unknown

as i've said many times before, the only way to become a true trader is to make mistakes and learn from them. The more painful the mistake, the stronger a trader you should be. There were many nights i went home dazed from something i did wrong. If you can wake up today determined to not let this situation sink your ship, you will be a better trader today than you were yesterday.

Keep your head up and repeat after me:

I was an option addict born
And an option addict bred
And when I die
I'll be an option addict dead.

Rambo,

How flattered I was to be included in your prose yesterday. I don't know about the classy part...but

Phantom Poet,

You made me spit out my coffee out of laughter reading your last poem. I think it's Jeff. Has anyone guessed Jeff?

XHB I don't hold over earnings and all the realty stocks are preparing to report. What do you all think about a put play on XHB to capture the next leg down when bad news comes across the board?

RE: NAMES

Rambo, Raimo, to me it does not matter....

I'll be using Raimo...it is who I am. I will however be calling on RAMBO to seek out and identify the Phantom Poet...

I am certain the Phantom Poet is not Jeff. But I do think it is someone he knows personally.

Benton,(and addicts)

I had the personality disorder last night..until Brett straightened me out!

Here is a good lesson to be learned that I will share with all you addicts...

Brett and I spoke last night about the GOOG dilemma before the market closed. Having huge profits, why risk them was pretty much our discussion. My plan was to sell half my Julys when I thought GOOG was at a top before earnings. I sold some before the close on 7/17 to lock in profits, and was thinking, stupidly, to risk the rest of my julys and all my augusts on earnings. What was I thinking....but you see it is easy to let emotion steer you wrong like the devil.

Thank the lord that Brett and I spoke. Not only did I sell my julys before the close, but unloaded my augusts, except one contract.

Position size, tolerance to risk, time left on trade. Had I held julys...DISASTER COULD, AND DID, STRIKE. But, since the right thing to do, the guaranteed locking in of nice profits, was done, I am a happy trader this morning. The loss on my one Aug is meaningless today, and since I have some time on it, it may still turn out to be not such a bad thing.

So, what should you get out of all of this?

Remember the addage, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Listen and learn from those that have suffered and been there. Learn from true pros like Jeff and Brett. This blog is invaluable.

Raimo-

I appreciate the kind words, but i want to remind everyone here that i'm not a 'true pro'. I am still a student, just like the rest of the addicts. Still learning, still trying to get to where I need to be. Still making mistakes, still emailing Jeff with questions. Just because I'm doing this for a living doesn't mean I have all the answers. I'm part of this community to learn just as much as I am to help.

I see Brett is a bit of a poemster
He gave us a little rhyme
Good advice
learn from mistakes
A better trader we will be in time

ISRG - If any o'youze are in this, you can probably retire. Up 23+ in premarket - wtf???

Brett,

I beg to differ...

A True Pro, IMHO, is someone who never stops learning, is skilled and knowledgeable in what they do, and always shares and gives back. A true Pro is ALWAYS a student whatever their profession, seeking to learn more and improve their skill.

I believe this defines you, and those of us here appreciate you , Jeff, and ALL the addicts here.

I bailed on the GOOG
As per my original plan
And patted my back
Saying, "Brett, you're the man!"

Now another issue
Is this CMI
I've got plenty of Augusts
And a few in July

I saw resistance at $120
With an inevitable break
So I held until today
Boy, what a mistake

Down $4 in the premarket
Yesterday's an opportunity missed on
Both my Julys and August
Are going to get pissed on!

I am liking FTO....

Jeff,

Thanks for your response. One final question on exits - do you wait until just before the close to exit (when a call is below Support)or,intraday, if the price is 1% to 3% below, do you exit then? Again, CE yesterday is my example. Thanks.

MAN upgraded today this should be interesting, this happened to me twice,stock gaps down and I do not find a good reason for it,making me think the big boys are manipulating the market, a good way to judge that see if big blocks of stocks go through in the sales if you don't see too many or big block buys then you may have a chance, also respect the support levels if those levels hold it is because someone is buying and seeing the gap as a sale.

keep an eye on STR and medical stocks as ISRG should push them all, anyone have any good set ups in that industry?
why why it doe not matter,but we aware of supports and news

Hey there Brett
CMI I see
Hope it does not
get hit with some pee
If it does
I offer to thee
check out the chart
Of EXP

Thanks Raimo-

I'm all over it.

AAPL gapping up this morning on Piper Jaffrey upgrade to $205.00!!!! Yes I said $205.00!!! But then again, we all have been saying 200.00 by December for alooooong time.
Happy Trading all!
GrooveDaddy

CN retesting $53....bouncing off diag support line...

Brett and Raimo,
Thanks for all the advice. The good news is I played GOOG as a swing trade and have taken profits twice. So I didn't lose my profits from taking the trade at 480. Today is another day, and I will be profitable.


Michelle

Bob, I feel your pain! I'm loaded up on CMI just a little further out. Cat came in with bad earnings sales I beleive down 21% due to the housing slump. I believe this a symphathy play with cat.

GOOG is already up to 510 in premarket trading. I would not be surprised to see GOOG actually move up in the next few days. I think there is some major market manipulation going on here.

Michelle

Question for anybody:

I am in ESV and I'm trying to decide if I should HOE which are Monday. So I looked at the fundamentals for clues. The company looks great except for the Insider Selling category. A bunch of insiders sold during the month of June when the stock was at the (then) highs. How much weight should I put into this fact in making my decision? Over 90% of the shares are owned by institutions, if that makes a difference. I'm not much of a fundamentalist so any insight is appreciated.

Watch for possible bounce on CF today. Pre-market has it right about spt.

Scoot

DJ, ESV Financials look good growth in every QRT. Holding over earning? Buy some Ins.

Michelle,

I LOVE your optomism. You see GOOG up to $510, I still see it as down to $510...

But I am with you. I think this has been a big over reaction, and I would like to see $510 hold and GOOG start to move up from here.

This will be interesting....

Raimo,
You have helped me see things differently before, glad to return the favor.

Repeat after me: "It's going to be a great trading day."

Michelle

Love it, Michelle...

"It's going to be a great trading day!"

Amy

Goog is climbing and how bout the set up on CF?

Cheers

SLB looking good. So is the AAPL.

Bob, Our GOOG is going to hold and, you watch, whoever that was manipulating the market to get a better price on GOOG, will probably start buying at the much, much discounted price they created. Sounds like a Cramer story.
Maybe I've read to many Market Wizard, Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator books.

Michelle

Let GOOG settle before jumping in. There's a lot of people jumping in this morning thinking, "Hey it was cheap at $550, look at it now!"

I think it will retest $500 if it's going to move higher.

Bob,
I am thinking CME is going to hit the 560 support and bounce back up, higher low. I got in on a fake-out, so I get to watch and wait. The story of my life. Isn't that what Jesse Livermore talked about that most of his making money was in the waiting?
Brett, I think you know the quote.

Michelle

Brett,
I am not thinking of buying (laughter.) I am just talking about not bailing on what I have and waiting. Thanks for the advice, though. I would either be stupid or have to have balls of steel to do something like that. And since I am female, I think it would be the former.

Michelle

ADSK sucks the cat's a$$

Brett,

Cats A$$ ??

Dude, I just spit my coffee all over my screen....Thanks..

DEATH TO BSC....

Addicts,

I read a lot ... I'm a student as well and learning more and more everyday ... but the overnight/AM blogging today about first hand experience over earnings was and is INVALUABLE! The Raimo/Brett banter and Michelle's pick up and move on attitude is a TERRIFIC example of how this blog is the best. You guys putting it on the table is such a teaching tool for us all.

I caught myself feeling (bad word!) a little 'daring' toward earnings on several of my positions ... I now will re-evaluate that in light of "hogs get slaughtered".

Thanks guys for your comments and time and willingness. INVALUABLE!

Hang on everyone looks like a wild ride ahead. I know I should not look but all yesterday's virtual gains are already gone.
There goes GRMN again and DECK, PCP, SNHY...
Ramio (and Brett) thanks for the lesson on earnings. I am looking to close many of my options before earnings and letting my stock trades run. Any advice on that? I agree with Benton and wish to thank you too!

Rambo,

Am I the only person who stayed in TSL? I have been waiting for it to break below 60 before taking my loss and today looks like the day. On 7-16 it broke below my support...did I exit then? No-another rule broken...sigh.

MTN

Has held it's ground nicely this morning on a big market pullback..

That's all I am saying....

Plus Brett likes Vail..

OpFan,
Thank you re ESV. What would you recommend as insurance against Aug calls? Do I need to match number of contracts? OTM or very OTM for the puts?

HIG - going down!

Anyone want to attempt a quick conference call? I want to test some technology...

I'm in Jeff.

How do we log on?

I can do it Jeff ..... tell me when ....

The CAT has died on earnings ... Could be radar material going forward!

I'm in too. Will wait for some instructions.

I will post something here in a few minutes.

I'M IN

I am in too

Anu

Me too! Conference call - yesssss!

BAC broke support after earnings

i'm in


sue

me too....

I am in the meeting

DG, Depends on your strike on the call side. Aug. 60 Puts OTM have delta of .30 with liquidity @1.45 How much are you willing to pay for Ins? Do you have a big position,do you already have gains, do you antcipate a big move in the underlying?

It is 10:05 CST...I hated to join the meeting late. How did it go?

Still talking, AMy, come on in

Rhyme and verse
when profits look their worst
can help provide a distraction
when your calls need some traction

pullbacks happen naturally
they are needed, you see
for if a stock goes staight up
it will get shot down like a duck

position size, patience, discipline
are all part of the regimen
the trick is to keep losses small
so you don't have to get a job at the mall

the colors of red and green
will always be on your screen
just remember to do it the Kohler way
so you can survive to trade another day



Scoot

Yahoo! There you are!! This so cool!

judy
your not the only one, im still in TSL. I am leaving for the rest of the day to attend to a weekend long bachelor party on lake wallenpaupack in PA. (raimo hopefully we will be having some yuengling, however it will most likely be some cheaper keg beer to chug for two days) So I think I may just H.O.W. (hold over weekend), it maybe costly, but most likely cheaper than a HOE

have a good weekend all, hopefully that conference call worked out

gh
long island ny

Thanks, Jeff.
That was excellent. Encouraging and nice to put voices with comments. Had to exit early to make lunch for the kids.


Michelle

Judy,
I sold 20 shares, but still have 30 left of TSL. I will check it next week and see if pulls back up. If not, off with its head.

Michelle

Okay. Brett it's time for a buritto. We probably needed another correction day, but I think that's enough. Time to hold steady and move back up.

Michelle

Jeff,

that was fantastic!

Yes, I am still in and holdiing..

Jeff,

that was fantastic!

Yes, I am still in and holdiing..

TSL is wht I meant to say there...yes, still in it and holding..

Jeff and all thanks for the conference call it was great. Names with voices was also great!
I agree, Brett buritto time. I also think we will end up but we will see.
Gotta run...
Tim, hang in there and we have been missing you.

Jeff,

As always, awesome stuff. Loved the phone conference. I will be there whenever. It was excellent!

Thanks, Jeff! Your commitment to us unbelievable. Thank you for all you do!

Brett..

It better be a big burritto..

Let's keep an eye on WW

Also, KMX looks like an itty bitty little H&S forming....

Jeff Thanks,

I'll take care of it.

Keep in mind:

SPY at support
VIX at resistance

today is expiration so it's going to be volatile. hang on to your seats.

Jeff,
Wow...that was awesome. You are awesome. Thank you so much. You have made all the difference in my trading. As we were speaking I watched as my trading hit a new milestone. I'm still on the road to recovery from last year's (30%) losses and I am now within 5% of recouping it all.

Thank you!

Great Job Jeff I second we do that more often maybe next time I'll chime in.

Danny

Jeff,
Thanks. Great new addition to our learning process.

Brett,
52 positions! I bow to thee.

That was awesome! I, too, appreciate all the effort you put into helping us. I did notice that I did not have a phone by my name. Not sure why... Does that mean you had me on mute?? That's ok for today since I'm still acting as a sponge... But eventually I will have something to say!

Thank you, That was GREAT to listen in. I will have more to say as I grasp the concepts better.
Anne - Colorado

Brett, wow, 52 positions..

H,mmm...my wife is getting excited over here.....you have the

KEVORKA!

Conference call was superb! Gives us more ammunition to deal with this Expiration Friday ....

Great to hear those voices with names ... I think Brett is on RedBull for his morning drink ..... What great energy! No wonder he does what he does!

Good trading to you guys!

bought some puts in

MLM
just watched it go down yesterday thought I better jump on it today.
trying to make some money back on my calls!

Time to throw out my fishing net and grab the bottom of this pullback before it gets out of control..

rambo just let it go I need to make some more money on MLM

If anyone is still looking for stock symbols to fill up their watch lists here's a site that offers an A-Z listing of optionable stocks:

http://www.poweropt.com/optionable.asp

The UPS man just dropped off a box from CafePress. My Option Addict stuff is here!

WOOOOHOOOO!!!!! Finally something to celebrate today in this crappy market.

Kim

OMG! Just looked at PLL, not what I needed in my account today.

I've got something for this market. It's big, it's meaty, and it's got a lot of cilantro. I'm going to shove it right up the bears a$$es.

Early burrito time.

Strap yourselves in.

Hi Michelle,

You made me laugh out loud with your "off with it's head" verdict on TSL.
Would you mind sending me your e-mail address? I have something that I would like to share with you. Thanks.

Since IT's earnings release dates are not always accurate where should I verify the dates?

Thank you- Anne

Brett,

Make it a double, my friend....I think we're going to need it.

Kim

bring it on Brett

sue

Anne,

For direct confirmation you can go directly to the individual company's website.

Kim

Brett,

I agree with VA Beach Girl....make it a double and then supersize it.

Judy,
It's michellemat2@yahoo.com

Just got done with lunch for the kids. They get up at the crack of dawn, so lunch is 11:00 around here. Need to go check positions and see if everything bounced nicely.

Michelle

What an interesting day - stop losses killed some positions, puts made some positions... 2.30am (brisbane australia time) probably should go get some ZZZZzzzz's but... so keen on seeing the close today. I think next week will be some fun!

Glad I sold one of my RIMM calls yesterday. AAPL and BA doing nicely in this down day.

Michelle

Whoa,
Don't want Brett to overdo the burittos or he will need Weight Watchers (laughter.)

Michelle

Hey, Brett where are those Bulls you invited to the market party? Are you still looking at MTN? Wow, 52 I guess one for each week of the year. The IT coach told Jeff I was running a my own mutual fund with 12 trades. I have ten now and ONLY one PUT! BSC bounced me yesterday as I had tighted the stop, oh well. DECK, GRMN, POT, PCP, SNHY... are getting pounded.
Tim I may need a shoulder to cry on soon.
Oh and Benton am I with you on those thong comments!
I am driving the family (yes, Chris in that mini van) to a reunion today and out most of the week so will be doing the aircard and laptop thing...slow. May be more hit and miss this next week but will be reading.
A huge THANKS again Jeff. Only me on the call as Pam as packing.

Question:
1. I am looking at DRYS as an entry today but IV is so high so am considering stock trade or DITM? Is my logic/entry faulty?
2. If IT and Prophet are off on earnings dates where do you find accuarte dates?
Thanks

CIB is consolidating. It may be another good entry point early next week. I am already in this trade. I am interested in learning how to add to positions. This morning's conference call was very enlightening on this topic. Is CIB a candidate to add to?

Brett can you through the rope to

CLF

its falling off itself

I am in KIM still and in LEN which has been a great trade. I know Jeff expressed some concern today on the conference call about housing stocks. KB home just came out with a statement that they expect the housing slump to continue until the end of 2008 and that housing prices will not rise until 2009. Now if only my housing puts are listening.

Does anyone have a thicker crayon?? I really need a fat one today.

Amy-

Sure, when CIB breaks north from this current consolidation i'd add to it.

Betred, keep the faith. It's still uptrending and our target is still north of this.

Rambo,

You can stop beating BSC with that stick. It is finally being obedient.

If my account didn't have so much red in it, I'd buy some CME. It's right at support.

Michelle

Jeff - the CC was great but would ask one favor... when it's all verbal I find I miss half the stock references. The name or ticker is stated and if off to the races. Is there a way that to have a notepad on the display where the ticker could be displayed so slow (and deeef) people like me can keep up.

Love ya man! Most people fall short of the praise they garner. You are one of the RARE exceptions.

Jim Ahern

Lisa,

If there wasn't a phone by your name it means that you misdialed or didnt dial the webex user number. Usually a 4 digit number followed by the #.

Jeff,
Got it... Since I was already in and had said hello, for some reason I assumed I didn't need to. However, I now remember the process from Mastertalk... Thanks.

Judy in FTL,
I did not get email from you regarding the AT workshop. Email is Karen@DojiGirl.com .
If you are going I will need to call IT before the end of the day to let them know I think.

I plan on beating BSC till I get it to close below $135.

TSL had better start to play nice with me.

Went long FTO and MTN.

I would love to be in DRYS, but that ship sailed leaving me on the shore. Too risky for ME to get in, way to overbought....it will pull back, just a matter of when and to where. (my crystal ball says $55ish) It reminds me of GRMN....godd to already be in it, but not a good entry for MY rules.

Loving AAPL.

GOOG TO $600, LOL...........THIS IS NOT A RECCOMENDATION........

CME

Dang..if not for earnings...too risky, learn your lesson from GOOG..

Bottom Feeder I,m with ya on PLL ,Man where did that come from. Thats what news will do to you, that stock looked sooooooooo predictable......OUCH......

Scott

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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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