What a great rally into the close!

Yes Amy, a nice run into the end here. Let's see what tomorrow brings...

Jeff,
Congrats on the Forbe's article. Is the error with the VIX chart instead of the BSC volatility chart?

Nice work Amy,

They got figure 2 & 4 mixed up.

Nice editing, huh?

Jeff

Brett, Nice call on the rally!

So does clean cups mean Kohler's posted a new thread - been trying to figure that one out.

Is anyone considering selling calls in GOOG for protection over earnings? I'm considering holding but I'd like to have a little bit of protection and even out of the money Jul's still have quite a bit of value. Any ideas?

Rene

Rene,
Yep, clean cups is new thread thanks to DG as she named it.

Congrats on the article Jeff .. I read it over the weekend from the blog ... GREAT STUFF ... Glad they caught on and finally posted it (by the way - I did a 'click-to' :)

Chris - GRMN showed a little life in the last hour .... We just have to wait until end of day to get serious about some of these judgments that need to be made....

NICE might be nice now or in the next day or so - Also, take a look at SEIC ...

Have a great evening everyone....

Jeff,

nothing in your post about my burrito fuel for the late rally? I called it, I ate it and kaboom. It rarely fails.

I would also like to throw BWLD on everyone's radar as an imminent head and shoulders breakdown. It's a little less meaty than your usual pattern. More like a Shawn Bradley and less like a Charles Barkley. That's okay, the end result will be the same.

Good job on the burritto Brett...

MIL...retest..

Jeff, I too Clicked for you.
Brett, those burritos cause other reactions for me but if they fuel the market I vote for your continued and consistent diet of them. Can your burrito power do something for SNHY, BGC and POT?
How come today the volume on the blog is quiet when I am here to watch? Sure when I am out 200+ posted that I have to catch up on. See Jeff it was NOT you this time.

Brett, i asked earlier, I did not understand what you meant by

"CONN triangle retest alert. Drop it like it's hot"


Did you mean get out of the trade?

I have a few things on my radar for tomorrow...

Bullish: CROX (Imp. Vol. is very high), GMRK, HTE, IMMR, LFC

Bearish: ROC

I mostly play bounces and flags.

Have a great evening, All!

Jeff,

Read the BSC article the other day and thought it was great. Yet, another strategy I had not thought about before. I'm thinking that these strategies will come more into play as market conditions change aka the trending bull market finally turns. So much to learn .... so little time! For now I'm still concentrating on making the most out of the Bulls.
I think you are always learning in this field but for now it's nice to finally be over the incredibly huge first hump in the learning curve although I know many more are coming.
I'm not going to get sappy but thanks for all you do! My acct's are much improving.

By the way I find it interesting that Forbes advertises playing options on the VIX. Are these the same options that I got into in the spring, the ones that actually move with VIX futures! Yeah, I loved that play, the VIX went up 6 points in a day and the options went up like 29 cents. Great hedge! NOT!

All OA's be leery of any VIX options.

Long: Kohler's insight
Short: VIX options (but really don't short them either)

Rene

I concur.

Damn the VIX options. Unless your a seller.

VIX options a pox on thee!!!! WHA BAM!!!

There.

Brett nice call on the rally. GRMN actually bounced back a bit at the end of the day, and I went down to the waterfront in Halifax and had a couple too many beers and now I can't spell right. What's wrong with this silly computer?

HIG is still right on support... I think I want to see some confirmation before I'm into it. Meanwhile FTO looks really nice. And I like the industry too. I'm in the air all day tomorrow, so I've put in a limit order on buying some FTO tomorrow morning. Hope it doesn't open up.

Have a good day tomorrow, bloggers. It's been a reasonable day, considering. My RRSP ended the day in the black instead of the red ink it was showing all day, so I'm thrilled. $0.64 in the black. I'm RICH!!!

Another idea for tomorrow - JNPR. It is sitting on diag spt and the after-hours market seemed to like the earnings today.

Scoot

I meant jump on CONN..snoop dogs style.

Today was frustrating. Partly because of market stuff and partly because I was not able to be at my own computer and 2 monitors. Instead I was working from my laptop with wireless issues. Plus I was too busy earning a living (Realtor) to make any real money.

As a result I got stopped out of POT, though still with a nice profit. And couldn't get out of AMG in any kind of reasonable fashion until the close at which point I would have stayed in the trade. But at least the loss was within my risk limit. The spread on that option was over $1 at one point today! I put the sell order in somewhere in the middle but then the stock moved hard against me (down $5 at one point)and I figured I'd never get filled since now even the ask was about .50 below my limit order. Ten minutes later I got filled at my limit and the ask jumped up another .50 above me. I think I will stick to options with a lot more liquidity. In this case being stubborn saved me a couple hundred dollars but I know being stubborn in a losing trade is a losing proposition as a rule.

REDF - This will have to be a stock trade. Have you looked at the volatility on that one?

Jeff - since we can't rely on the IT site being reliable ....Are you doing MastersTalk tonight?

I was planning on Mastertalk tonight... but then again, I was last week also.

Since it is my week I wanted to go over the "Would you trade this?" game.

I'm not sure what "Kanish" is teaching tonight."

Kanish?? Are you talking about Alan? How'd he get that name?

Could it be ... Rounders?

Jeff, you will have to explain the inside joke part of it.

Joel R.

Anybody know how earnings went on GOOG? Haven't been able to find any news.

Michelle

Kelly is teaching, and you can thank Brett for the Rounders reference.

Rounders, that would be Joey Kinish.

"F you and your neverending string of boats!"

So Jeff are you Alan tonight, which session are you?

Jeff,
Fine, I am teaching my weimaraners how to play "would you Trade this" and it is hard. Thanks a lot!

Cheers,
ARTY

"If you don't know who the sucker is at the table in the fist five minutes, you are the sucker!"

Jeff is on Masters talk # 2 Now.

Amy,
I'm curious why you are bearish on ROC?

I've been in Aug 30 calls since it was at 32 and doing quite nicely.

I'm hoping to hold it longer but will probably get out if it goes below 38.

Thanks,
Rd

Rd,

My mistake...ROG. Thanks for noticing. I wouldn't touch ROC with a bearish anything. Nice trade by the way.

Amy,
I have to admit that I bought ROC by mistake. Thought I was buying Rockwell (ROK). I thought "hmmm, this looks ok I'll just keep it. Worked out well this time!

Actually, I just looked at ROK. Should have bought them both...

Rd

This job thing is killing me. How could I have missed the Burrito Forecast.

The green line (Intermediate)reversed up with Brett's purchase. It had trended sideways in the oversold zone for a couple of weeks without a purchase.

The Blue Line (Near Term) turned up with his stomach growling this morning.

The Red Line (Momentum) exploded into the upper reversal zone when he pounded that thing down before the rally. ( I am not sure of using the word exploded after eating a Burrito....ickk).

There will be a a new tab on the IT website to follow the Burrito Forecast. Brett will have a chip inserted somewhere and we can all buy GRMN GPS's to follow his movements (another bad word) towards CMG.

I might as well add a stock to the follow. FWLT is bouncing off support today (depends on how you draw support). Keep this on your list, this is a MONSTER in the making.

Jamie

Jeff-

Great marketcast as always. i love it.

Regarding this week's pick: GPI.

They're releasing earnings on 31 July and you suggested an August bear call spread. Yet you have seemed to always hint that holding through earnings is very risky and should be avoided. Is this one different? How?

Matt

Jamie,
That is too funny. Brett and Raimo do seem to have Superman eyes when it comes to calling stocks and the market. Thank God, they are on our team. Actually, I don't want to get too religious, but Jeff was an answer to prayer. I was so down last year after losing thousands and asked God (during prayer) what to do. I was ready to quit trading. Our account couldn't sustain much more damage (-$17,000). I got during my prayer time "Jeff Kohler." Little did I know that through this blog, Master's Talk, The Market Cast, I would start to turn our account around and become a trader and LOVE trading. So for those who don't believe in prayer, well, all you'd have to do is look at our account -- Thanks, Jeff, bet you didn't know you were an answer to prayer (laughter.)
Everyone have a great trading day.

Michelle

I forgot to mention trading rooms. When I was going through Investools, I was listening to two trading rooms a week. Jeff's method and style just spoke to me. I loved the way he taught and seemed to grasp the concepts better in his class, plus he made it where it wasn't boring. I won't mention names, but some of those classes were so dull, I couldn't even sit through the whole thing. Jeff, I hope you read all this, because I'm sure there are others on this blog that you've helped. Someday when I am trading for a living, I plan on blessing you with some nice gifts. Hey, the Bible teaches to bless people (not just with words, but with things.) So maybe you should start your wish list.

Hey, why don't you do that, Jeff. How about a list of restaurants you like to eat at, places you like to shop. If we had an address (maybe work, personal might not be a good idea) I would love to send you and your family a gift certificate to go out and have a nice dinner on me and my husband.

Michelle

Brett,
Is GLDN a cup and handle? I am looking through my stock plays at old stocks on watch lists and pulled up this one.

Michelle

Jamie,

That was really funny. Thanks for the laugh.

MIchelle,

looks more like a flag to me.

Jamie,

That one made me choke on my coffee. Thanks for the laff.
Re FWLT - I see how you drew support (starting in May?)but what makes it a monster in the making?

Jeff, enjoyed MT last night and no tech issues too! I actually recognized one of those nameless charts (PSA) when you put it up.

Brett,
Maybe I've got cups on the brain with the coffee this morning (laughter,) but is CME a cup and handle? Look at the year chart.

Michelle

5/7 to 7/6, you don't see the cup part of it? I trust your judgment because you've studied patterns a lot more than I have. I see the flag, but could that not be a handle?

Michelle

1/25 to 7/17 on CME (cup) and now forming the handle?


Michelle

Anybody know what earnings was on GOOG? Sorry for all the posts, but I'm about to be away from the computer to take the kids out to ride bikes before it gets hot outside.

Michelle

Yes, but it could also be a double top forming too, right?

Seriously, what's amazing about technical analysis sometimes is how trendlines persist. Remember the big triangle that Jeff pointed out (it broke down in April). Amazingly, if you extend those 2 trendlines, the stock has reacted to both since then. Now, it's turning down from one.

But yes, if CME breaks $600 or so, it could probably be considered a cup breakout or at least a channel break. You're going to have to wait a long time to hit your target though.

Keep your eyes on CTRP, and your finger on the fire button..

As for GOOG Michelle, earnings being released tonight after the close...

Brett,

What the heck was in that burrito yesterday???

How would you like an endless supply of them? I am sure we could get a few people to chip in and make sure you don't run out!

Scoot

Thanks, Brett and Bob.
Bob,
I was thinking it was last night. Duh.


I am trying to study patterns and charts. Good input, Brett.


Michelle

Did anyone jump on RIMM and TSL yesterday?? Pre-market so far they look good, not that I won't get busted by end of day, LOL...

TSL was a good entry yesterday, RIMM a bit agressive and risky..

Hey Rambo are you still in MAN?

what do you think are we geting rewarded?

I did not get filled on CTSH yesterday but today is the day

Bob,
I see it. This is so exciting. These things are starting to make sense to me.

Michelle

Bob,
Didn't get in yesterday, but already in both those trades.

Michelle

Goog up in premarket, too.

Michelle

Rambo,

I hope you are right on CTRP...I anticipated the breakout, so I have been in few days. ARGH! I hate when I don't follow my rules.
Amy

Still in MAN, though dissappointed the price ran right back down to $95 on the 17th......

Pre market up .54, big whoopy. I am out on a CLOSE below $94...

Anybody still in BIDU? I got stopped out before the huge drop, but wonder if it's going to come back. The news was a lawsuit.

Michelle

Amy, did you take CTRP on the 12th ??

I got in on the 16th...the stock formed an equal low, so I used that as support and jumped in. There was nothing significant for jumping. I scaled my position size back since I was more aggressive.

CTRP looks great at the open...

Pre-market has some kick to it today ... Could be interesting ..

Googlers - Bloomberg reporting revenue growth dropped 17% over last reporting period and acquisitions sucking out some money. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVb6liu4eYDU) Just a heads up as you move to end of day earnings announcement.

Good day everyone!

any news on
MLM


down 4 points!

DG, here is my take on FWLT. It is just a feel I have for the volume on it.

First Look at OSG in the Trans Index. It exploded out of a Sym triangle BEFORE earnings on huge volume. Institutions started piling into this thing. Earnings were ok but it kept going higher and started a new trend.

FWLT. It broke out on 4/3 on good volume. Volume was good the whole time up to earnings on 5/9. Earnings came out and it moved up about 6 points on good volume. I was watching this thing and getting posted on the conference call. Their guidance was incredibly bullish. A rarity in todays world. The volume exploded intra day as the stock traded up another 8 points during the call. Institutions love earnings. Look at the volume and the trend since that day. This is on their radar. FWLT was just added to the Nasdaq 100. There is lots of demand for this stock. To me this will be in the MLM, PCP catagory of trends.

I know you are a swing trader. Just keep FWLT in front of you. There is lots of money to be made here.

Jamie

Jamie, thanks!

CAH - going DOWN!!!

Doji Girl I agree with you,also a realtor and it gets in the way of trading full time although my account has preformed vey nice in the past couple of months, I see you bailed on joyg the other day I stayed with it and glad I did.

Jamie,
Those FWLT options are pricey!

Quick question for anyone:
If you are going to HOE (hold over earnings) and want insurance, do you have to buy the same number of puts as you have calls? Also, how far otm?

tia

MAN..hope you got out right away..

Rambo,
Good call on REDF (that was you, right?)

GOOG

I thought I heard an EXPECTED 17% drop compared to the same qaurter last year...

And it is not the eranings that moves the stock price, it is waht the market percieves and how they interpret the news.

Say tht number comes in at a 15% drop, not 17%, the market may love that...

Who knows...the Shadow knows

bsc driving me crazy, I didn't take the spread, I bought a put. I don't know if I should be patient and wait this one out or take the little profits i have left


gh
long island ny

gh

I share your pain on BSC..stick with it..it will fall.....yesterday it was down on huge volume, though the price action could have been more encouraging.

Rambo:
I did not bail on MAN yet, as I don't see the volume to justify the move now we are at support and I liked there numbers. I may be eating CRAP, but I will wait until the end of the day. or break of support

BSC sure has been a crazy stock to trade. It scares the dickens out of me about every couple of days with the wild swings. Thank goodness I took the spread, if I had a put I would have gone nuts by now.

As it stands, if the spread holds through tomorrow this will be one of my better $$ making trades. I was a bit over aggressive on the number of contracts.

MikeH

BSC to $137 today....

Rambo,
From your mouth to god's ears and I hope she's listening.

Oh, trust me, SHE's listening, LOL..

your all paying attention to CTRP, right?

AYE could be making its move today. Like to see more volume.

Scoot

Brett,

Where do I mail my gift certificate to you for burritto's..??

Does anyone else have a gap in time on your daily charts from 10:36 to 10:48

Hey Rambo .... To further clarify, expected or probably is the word on Google ..... Here is what was in the article ...

"Revenue growth probably slipped in the period to 60 percent from 77 percent a year earlier, according to the average of 31 analysts' estimates in a Bloomberg survey."

That means nothing and you're right, could go either way .. I just wanted to be sure you guys knew the buzz!

CTRP looks like it wants to break that flag today. Also check HET, sitting right on support today.

I find myself in a very odd predicament for the first time. I have no cash left to trade, I'm fully invested. It's killing me cuz I'm looking at some great setups.

WNR bouncing.

MikeH

Jamie - like your analysis of FWLT ... I've put it on my Bullish / Watch list..... THANKS!

Rambo, I noticed that the lag also. I use Ameritrade's Streamer for my real time quotes though I mostly trade on TOS

CTRP - put an order in early but it didn't get filled and I can't chase it here. Will take another look later today when I come back.

RTP has come back to life.

Raimo--

My daily charts have gaps as well....

Rambo Bob,

I just chatted with the investools tech support and they are having a problem. They are working on fixing the problem but don't have an estimated time.

Anu

WDC is breaking through an old resistance point ahead of earnings. Been in a nice uptrend over the last 4 months.

Thanks Lisa and Anu..thought it at my end..

OK all you Googlers,

I've been playing with HOE scenarios:
(Jeff, can we get a glossary going for DG's acronyms?)

I think buying anything is a mistake with present volatility.
At the moment:
Let's say GOOG is at 550 (it's close)
Selling the JUL550 call gets you 13.80 (at the moment)
Therefore tomorrow the stock has to go above 563.80 to be a loser (on the short side) but then the undelying long side is doing great!

Anywhere between 550 and 563.80 and the long call is holding up and you still get a partial return on the short call.

Below 550 your short 550 call expires worthless and you get the entire premium. If it breaks your stop you get out as you would anyway but with less loss.

Does anyone else concur? Of course there are many options, Jul Aug,550, 560...

Rene

Raimo,
Would this not be the move on CTRP?
I bought a small amount of stock this morning.

Michelle

NYX .... under $80 ... FYI

I am downgrading BSC to $136...

The dry bulk shippers are going wild. GNK, DRYS.

I submit to you EGLE in this space. Broke out at 23. Ran up to 26 and bounced on the re-test today. Dec calls are very cheap.
I bought Dec 25's
Jamie

AYE - breaking a cup n handle, tiny volume so far.
BLK - breaking old resistance
CROX - boing
DO - breaking out of a falling wedge (maybe...)
DRC - boing
GRMN - ??
GSF - boing! why didn't I buy this yesterday? oh, yea, no money..
HOC - boing
HOS - water transportation.. starting a new leg?
NE - boing, plus new high
VMC - bearish channel break

Anyone got 20K I can borrow?

MikeH

Betred2000,

I know VMC cut it 2Q guidance due to a pullback in US residential housing (and cement orders) I had a put on it last week when it broke support then stopped out the next day. I wish I still had it - I hate it when that happens! Keeping my losses small has been woking for me though.

Rene

Nice flag on SOHU. Earnings in a couple of days, manage your risk.

Joel R.

Michelle,

Yes, if it holds..and I think it will..

To clarify VMC is in the same industry with MLM. I think it's probably pulling the whole group down.

You gotta love AAPL. Reached my projected 140 target and still looks like a good trade.

Michelle

The following is a list of stocks that can go f themselves:

GOOG
SKX
REG
MLHR

So how do you REALLY feel Brett?? I'm with you with REG ....

So what's the NEXT level of resistance on DBRN guys?

DBRN - $28 all time high. How's that for wishful thinking.

I would love to get something in the Water Transportation Group, but DRYS, GNK, OMG seem way too extended and overpriced to me. I am looking at HOS (mentioned earlier by Mike H) which appears at the top of the Phase 1/2 Scores and also has a better Trend according to IT's analysis. My problem is that - if HOS is a better company - why isn't it moving up like these other stocks in the group? It may be ready to break out of this little channel here at $41 ish, but is it going to go parabolic like these other plays? I know it's useless to ask why, just follow the market, but...WHY?

You know what REALLY pisses me off? When I have a stock like VMC marked up on my charts where the entry would be, etc. and then I forget to watch it and it goes and does its' thing without me. So many stocks....so little time (and money).

BSC has until tomorrow to prove its worth before I bail. It's an August put and it has overstayed its welcome in my portfolio.

Brian,

How about EXM?

Regarding Goog plays over HOE - there are soooooo many articles out there - some reporting increasing earnings and others bad. Time will tell and you will have to react like any other trade if you HOE.

Good Luck
Christine "Early Bird" Lumia

Brett,

Will take at look at EXM - thanks!

Doji Girl - not sure what BSC is doing. Take a look at the candle forming today...nice futile attempt to get back above the 30DMA, falling MACD and rising IV.

This day is strange for our account. Based on the CAST last night and wanted to at least lock in some gains we so moved our stop on BSC and got filled on the gap up. Yes, I traded directionally with a put so even though it is down more out is ok with me.
Sure hope today holds as it is doing nice things for my trades today.
I see many great ideas here today, thanks!

PCP is blissfully unaffected by MLM and VCM. Amazing!!

Joel R.

Jeff, Brett, Rambo,

When you have a price pattern which takes 3 months or so to form and you get confirmation before earnings. Do you typically exit prior to earnings and get back into it after the earnings if it looks like the earnings did not adversely effect the stock? I guess the real question is how do you handle trading a price pattern you are in if it hasn't reached its target and earnings is here?

Anu

Brian,

I bought EXM a while back when the transportation group was real hot but EXM hadn't made it's move yet. I hung on while it channeled and finally gave up on it with a loss. Of course a week later it when balistic. I've noticed the stocks in this group don't move in tandem. For example, once high flyer TK is now down.

I like HOS right now and TBSI is looking good.

MikeH

Anu,

That is the question. Earnings itself is not the issue. It is how the market interprets and reacts to the earnings. A stock can have bad earnings, but not be as bad as expected, and the stock goes up. Vice versa. Earnings is always risky. Profits and losses are not realized until you close out the trade.

we all have our own preference I am sure onhow to dael with this dilemma.

Also, how much time after earnings do you have left..ie; can you ride out some bumpy times if the earnings and its reaction goes against you? What is your tolerance to risk? How much can you AFFORD to gamble? Are you gambling? then assume a total loss, right?

Me, I lock in some profits and will let some of it ride. If I am wrong, I won't get hurt too bad.

I don't bother trying to figure out whether the earnings will be good of will be bad...again, it is how the market reacts to the earnings..and that I can't know.If I did, I'd be rich.

Brett,

Please, don't hold it in... let it out. this is a safe place to express your feelings!

DG,

I solve that problem with "alerts" when I'm looking at the chart. I mark up the chart with what I'm thinking at the time, set an alert, and when the alert comes 3 weeks later, I can remember exactly what I was looking at in the first place... Solved a big problem of not remembering why i was interested in the first place.

GOOG:

I've seen a lot about trading GOOG the last couple of days. Last week I did an AUG strangle that was WTFOTM, and only $10, and then when it wasn't moving much I sold the next stikes in for a $5 credit (Julys). those will most likely expire worthless, and depending on the direction of the stock after earnings i'll let the other strangle leg go on Monday.

this is a new strategy, I'm just testing it out. i'll let you know how it works out.

I'm in love with SLB... I have to admit that I have very strong feelings for it. I really, truly am an option addict. I do have a serious problem though and would love your input.

using careful money management rules, i got into SLB. basically, my BOT positions were sized at 2% of my account. On a few of the breakouts since March, I have added new positions to my portfolio, so I'm now in ITM options, though they were OTM, slightly when i bought them... That's neither here nor there... I currently have 5 different positions and the value of the total of the positions is 25% of my account. It's been extremely profitable.

I don't know whether I should get out of some of them to rebalance my portfolio, or if the fact that I'm in different strikes in two different months is okay... each trade is a different position. Each position is up more than 100%. Any advice?

I also have a Rambo style knife I spin on a table. Depending on where it points, I hold or get out. This has been the most reliable method for me in determining to hold over earnings or not.

Thanks Rambo. I see the logic in both your approach of locking in profits on some and letting some ride through and also looking into how much time you have left.

Also the comment about how holding over earnings is a gamble so asking how much you are willing to gamble with.

When can we expect to see your next poem? I am getting quite accustomed to them.

Anu

Lisa,

That's pretty heavily weighted in a single stock. With earnings today, I would lighten up on the deep ITM options. If this stock decides to drop 10%, are you okay with that?

Anu,

I had a dandy yesterday in response to my nemisis the Phantom Poet. Then, I accidently close out of word without saving it...I was so pissed.

Yes, another coming soon enough in response to the PP.

DBRN

Brett, my next level of resistance (provided it closes above $21) for this is at $21.50ish...which coincidently is also the apex of this huge triangle.

Sold my SBUX puts. Anybody else still in this trade. They had some news yesterday that apparently was good. I'm tired of watching it go up.

Michelle

Take a look at AIT nice pattern
What about BUD head and shoulders?

Bob-

I know. I was only kidding.

ok,,,so i was in chicago the past few days at class and am still trying to get caught up with the blog,,,,Raimo,,,have you changed to Rambo? or is this someone else,,,posts sound like you though

sue

LOw risk entry on ROLL

Clean cups.

New thread.

Joel r.

Brett,

I'd like to submit CE to your "f" this list.

This is why I trade with stops. A tidy profit of 120% from 2 days ago was sucked down to 80% and it's down even further than where I was stopped out today.

Kim

RUMOR:

SBX being bought by Pepsi

BEAV making next leg higher.

Kim