Awesome, I'm already thinking about where to pose and take snapshots of my new OptionAddict underwear.

:-)

or not.....

Enquiring Minds want to know!

Hilarious!

Decisions! Decisions!

Jeff,

I did not see any boxer shorts in camo....

count me in for the classic thong.

you know what, if the thong is avail in camo, I'll take one of those too....Brett may be on to something with the thong..

I was thinking of throwing them out to the crowd during one of my Chicago presentations...

I better stop right there before I am tempted to tell jokes.

That was a quick $100.00.

Thanks, Amber.

I will check out the store but I know it will cost me.

Meanwhile, anybody have any thoughts about puts on BXP?

Or I might write some poems..

Raimo...

I'm waiting.

DG- Don't worry, since you are a trader, it is deductable.

Where in the hell is everyone.

Should I take off so the conversations will pick back up again?

Forget BXP - the spreads are ridiculous. Back to the drawing board for a put play....

Jeff,,

Oh boy...now I have my work cut out for me.

Poem in process, may be not today, but I will make it a timeless classic for the blog...besides, I owe a few people here anyway, LOL...they got me good last week..

with that, enjoy CRR....

Jeff,
DON'T leave. I had a business meeting and will probably have to leave again soon. But I am here even when I'm not. Too bad my 'job' is getting in the way of making money!

Trying to decide to dump my ESV calls which are ruining what would otherwise be a decent day. I think ESV is broken. It didn't do what I expected it to do.

Any thoughts on it?

I am here but no one answers my posts anyway, they are too complicated.

Does anyone see a play on CPO?

Nice Gear! Picking up a shirt, I can hear friends asking me know WTF is an Option Addict.. (Still al closet trader). Maybe ill pick up a thong and stay incognito. lol

LYO a low risk entry (earnings of course) with support at $40...

David CPO is still holding support if anyone missed the bounce on friday it would be a good time to get it if it fits your R2R.


My .02

Brett:
you are the expert on cup and handle patterns what say you on ILMN
thanks

CPO one thing to watch... earnings are around the corner it looks like it gaps on earnings would have been a good strangle..maybe

DavidS-

Looks pretty good, and a break over $42.50 or so seems like a breakout with a nice target. However, it may take earnings to do that next week.

CTRP is all over the place. Looking for an entry, but may wait for confirmation; closer to the end of the day.

DG- ESV is so hard to call it broken. Depending on your entry point, 60 is a good number...

Is CTRP still considered a bull flag at this point?

Is anyone trading AIR or PDE? If so any thoughts?

Glenn

check out the volume on ETN that is beatiful.

SPWR that stocks fluctuates in price in 1 minute increments up 50c to up 1.30 in a matter of seconds. I have a feeling it will explode after earnings

Jeff,

In your opinion is it possible to work a job - say 30-40 hrs/wk, and still make a decent income trading? Or do you need a single focus? Thanks!! Beth Ann

Fellow addicts -

I just wanted to get some opinions of how you handle a trade that takes a big gap up on you. I bought come calls on NILE 2 days ago when it bouncing off of diagonal spt. Today it gapped 12% on the open and I sold half of my contracts. My question is: Now where is a good stop for the other 2 calls?

Scoot

KO....

Jeff,
My problem with ESV is my entry. I took the trade last week at what I thought was a retest of a breakout with 62.70ish as support. It's done nothing but go down since then but I agree that right here is support both horizontal and diag. So maybe it isn't broken.

Anyone in TSL?

would this be a good bounce play?

Denise

Scoot..

I blew the sme scenario on X...

So, lesson learned when the gods give you such a gift...my opinion, sell at least 2/3 let the rest run if you have time..lock in the profits buddy..that is why you are here..profits..and yuengling..

TU low risk entry

hey,,dont check out Jeff,,,we are all still here,,,i'm getting ready to take off for chicago advanced options class,,,

Judy,,,i'll let you guys know if they have any daytrading stuff on the spx,,,i planned on asking Stacey anyway

sue

Glenn,

I have been in and out of PDE a couple of times. I first got in early April and had July call options. I now have Oct. 40 calls. I know today it is down but it has been a good trending stock. It may be a good entry at this point.

PCLN is at diagonal support.

Jon P.
OC, Oregon

Raimo, YES! - profits for yuengling! Thanks for the feedback.

I am still ok with the remaining 2 contracts - up 103% for the Nov 65s. I am just not sure what would be a good signal to exit them should they come back down.

Scoot

Beth Ann,

5 years ago I would have said it is impossible. Now I totally disagree. If I were at home trading I would get bored real easy and my wife would leave me. The nice thing about my job is that trading is a prerequisite. However if your job is the one that keeps you from the account, it is tough to juggle 2 full time jobs. Your trading will need to suffer in order to accomodate your job. As you get better at trading, it will start to find balance with your other career.

Wow,
What happened to TSL today? I was looking for an entry point, but it looks scary.

Michelle

Brett, what are your thoughts on TSL?
KELLY

Sorry, Jeff,
You had nothing to do with my leaving the blog. Kids were napping nicely. Since I didn't sleep well last night, I took an opportunity to catch a quick nap, too.

Michelle

TSL..

With todays volume pushing it down, I'd look for it to bounce off $60...

Michelle,
TSL might be being drug down with FSLR because of an article in Barron's this weekend saying FSLR was overvalued. JASO is also taking a pretty good hit.

Scoot

TSL is also forming a bearish engulfing pattern indicating a near-term pullback. I am watching $60 for spt.

I got out of this a couple of hours ago.

Scoot

Wow, what a selection of OA wear ! This is going to take a few minutes after the market closes to do.

Thanks Amber and Jeff


Jamie

C2, (and others in REG)

REG - bumped it's nose on that $73.90 resistance and headed back down .. I was also ready to jump out of it today .. but once again, last hour analysis worked on this one instead of intraday ....

Just FYI ...

Dropped a quick $75 in the OA store and didn't even look at all the stuff...

The TSL trade is for another day...

TSL: If you split the two big white candles on 7/9 and 4/16 you get about 64 which where it's at right now. Seems like an area of support. I'm hanging in there.
Peter

CROX sitting near spt. Maybe we will get a bounce with some good PPI data in the morning.

Scoot

I'm still in TSL. I don't like the bullish engulfing candle at resistance, but then again, I didn't like getting married in Omaha at the time. It all works out sometimes.

TSL..

I got my $60 support by bringing up the 6 month on a weekly...it shows it a little more clearly. Then again, on the 6 mo wkly, last two candles could be some dark cloud cover too....who knows....

Glad I waited on TSL. I'll see if it holds tomorrow. I've already entered three trades prematurely. I hate it when I do that. They look like they are making a run, I buy, and they pull back and takes days to move back past where I got in. I think there is a lesson here.

Michelle

Also watching DECK for an entry point. And I am expecting one day this week we'll get a correction day. Just hope that is not the day I enter any new trades. What a BULL market.

Michelle

I jumped in on the WCG breakout at the close.
I think there is bent up demand for this strong trending stock since it has been channeling for two and half months.

Rd

I always proof read AFTER I post.

I meant "pent up"!

Rd

TSL, my out line in the sand was the breakout point which I had in the $68/$68.50 area. Today that was breached in grand fashion! Because of the position size I had I could have handled a little more downside from a risk standpoint, but I had my plan and this wasn’t part of it. Another entry for me could be right around the corner. I still have the stock in my IRA.

Raimo, I respectfully don’t see your $60 support level unless you are using the gap point on 7/9 and 4/16. Please enlighten me. Today’s close was at the low end of last week’s short consolidation which could be support if we see a bounce. This range was also used towards the end of April. Other than that, I don’t see it until the $58 range. Talk to me man!

Rd-

Beware! I did the same thing on the "breakout" of TSL on Friday. Man I'm hating myself for that decision today! Ugh.

Matt

I took a trade on CTRP today. It looks like I may be a little early on it.

Nothing less than organic cotton touches this skin:)

Interesting facts from today I think:

NYSE - Advancers 1045 / Decliners 2208

Nasdaq - Advancers 1015 / Decliners 1989

This party may have a break coming soon......

Just FYI!

Hey NP J Logan!!

We all see things differently.

I see 7/9 as a breakout above $58.50ish...a hz line drawn at $58.50 would be a crayon for me running back to 4/13

Then I looked at the open price on a big volume day, 4/16..the open was about $60. The open on 4/30, another big volume day, was $60. The open on 7/9,(yup, a big volume day)was $60ish too. Mind you, none of this means anything, right?

Then, just for kicks, and I suck with Fibbs, I drew one starting at the support at $50ish (broke that on 6/28 with volume)and ran it up to yesterdays close. That puts the 50% line at about $60.

Then, for googles (ahem, I meant giggles), I opened up the 6 month chart and put it on the weekly. $60 looks good across the top of 4/16, 4/23, 4/30 and the bottom of 7/9.

Now, take into account todays volume, the market needs a breather/pullback, I dont see todays closing price holding...I see it running down, to me, a clearer support area of $60.

Hey, but I could be way off bse too. You may be right...

Brett, I'm in Omaha too. Are you involved with any of the groups here?

Dan Phillips

J logan..

the diff between your $58 and my $60 is really just a black sharpie magic marker line in the overall picture...(re; TSL)

WCG - nice breakout RD.

I'm not too worried about TSL. There's a bearish engulfing candle at resistance. The MACD is overbought and heading down. The Stochastics are overbought and heading down. I mean, what is there to worry about?

just kidding. This is a crazy stock, and I'm not interested in getting out unless there's a close below $60 (the gap). My hunch is that this area we're in is support and we're going to bounce here. If we don't, hey, at least I jumped the breakout and my loss will be smaller.

Hi Dan,

The only groups I'm involved with here are PE 101, Gymboree and YMCA youth teeball.

Please enlighten me.

Brett, I'm in Omaha too. Are you involved with any of the Investools groups here?

Dan Phillips

Sorry Brett, it didn't look like my first post took. We have a large group that meets once a month and smaller groups (hubs off the wheel) that meet weekly.

Dan

Brett,

TSL

don't talk like that buddy.. I plan on getting in at $60ish..it is going to go back up and make a higher high..

I got bit on TSL also. However, 4/25 peak closed at 63.49. I'm hoping that support holds up. It only dipped below that point for 2 minutes today, then the stock shot back up from its low up $1.03 to close at $64.21.

We shall see.

James H.

the bid on TSL is up $.14 in the after hours. What were you all worried about?

Jeesh.

.14, LOL....

What me worry?

James H.

First, "NP"???

Second, I hope you are right for your sake. I hope I am right for my sake. If not, I can learn and move on. One thing I have learned is how your determined your $60 range.

Thank you.

I will be in NYC this weekend for a wedding. If I had more time than just the weekend, I�d run out to PA and buy you some Yuengling. You are pretty far away, so probably not�

Anyone else see BWLD dropping out of sym tri. today or am I going slightly mental? I had it in an asc. triangle last week, changed my chart today, to sym tri and watched it drop out today - not way out but, out nonetheless.

Anyone?

James H.

James,

I'm watching BWLD to roll over from a head and shoulders.

Either way, if you're looking to get long, avoid it. Plus, they burned my wings last time.

I bailed BWLD 7/10...

NP...no problem....

Jeff,

Oh my! The thong just makes me giggle. I think that might just be the beginning of a new type of "addict" blog.

C2 (and others struggling with ytd acct losses),

Congrats on crawling out of the learning curve pit. We are crawling out of a similar pit in our IRA acct. However, our margin acct. is up over 50%. Late May was our low point in our Ira acct. where we hit 50% down since 1/1/07. We couldn't figure out how we were doing so well in our margin acct. and so poorly in our IRA. The lightbulb came on for me after calculating our position size on each option versus our total portfolio value. WOW was that enlightening. Our margin acct. was small enough that I was forced to play only low priced options, one contract at a time. The IRA was another story. We had some options in our portfolio that each were more than 10% of our portfolio value, which I now realize is way out of whack. Since the revelation 6 weeks ago I have gotten out of the options that were killing our account and we have gained back 13% of the 50% we have lost. I know this one change in our investing rules (or now truly understanding it) will be the catalyst for moving back toward even and beyond. Thanks for sharing your story.

Kim

Long: Understanding position sizing

Short: Negative account size

Brett, I looked at CLF today and bought some august calls at the 84.50 range. It looks like it has some support there. Hoping for a bounce what do you think.

DavidS.....are you going to the TOS free class in Orlando this Weds ?? It is actually just on the far side of Kissimmee.

Hi Tonya:

No unfortunately I am not going. I have to go back to North Miami Beach this weekend and I have to do some work here in Cocoa Beach.
I do not trade with them yet, as I want to transfer my iras to them as they let you sell options.

If that trader with the funny hat teaches the class, he is great.

Let us know what you get out of it, please

I went Golfing today and did quite well,
came home elated 'till I looked at TSL,
I had read it as a cup and handle,
now all I see is a bearish engulfing candle,
I know one candle does not a pattern make,
OH God, please let this be a fake,
I was nervous when it broke #@!@#$#* 69,
I kept telling myself everything is fine,
Then when it dropped below 64,
out came the hammers and my wife showed me the door,
I live in California so I slept on the lawn,
I dodged all the rattlesnakes and greeted the new dawn,
with enthusiasm because I know what you can't,
that I am donning the new OA thong under my pant,
The banging of the hammers created quite a clatter,
it finally made me realize what was the matter,
how can I profit in my trades in only OA underwear,
I need shoes and accessories..it seems only fair,
success at trading can only be achievable,
when the clothes you are wearing are truly believable,
so all you option addicts go get some stuff,
and pressure Amber and Jeff to add some more fluff,
trading naked puts is not really wrong,
when you are wearing an option addict thong,
adding some OA bling to your dress,
will make you trade better I confess,
so DG, Raimo, Brett and Tim,
get better in shape at the gym,
because soon to be available at the OA shop,
is an OA calender that will make our eyes drop,
and we ALL will be googling at many a thing,
but mostly at you wearing your new BLING!!!!!

Your turn Raimo.

The Phantom Poet!

Anybody else having a problem accessing the marketcast? When I click on the link, the box comes up empty. I also notice that the home page still shows information from Friday the 13th. Just want to make sure it has something to do with Investools and not my computer......

betred2000-

I'm looking to get out of CLF soon. Earnings are just around the corner and my target was the prior high, which it may or may not get to or some buyout offer.

Just my opinion. If you're willing to hold through earnings and the market stays strong, it could go over $100.

The Phantom Poet is incredible.........

Jamie

Brett, I am in CLF and also. This is anticipating but I think you'll see a cup and handle develope.

Jame

Brett, thanks for your response. Today just looked like a low risk entry. I just seem to pull the trigger to fast on these options plays. Can't let the winners run.

Okay, you guys, what is your fascination with wearing a thong? Those are the most uncomfortable things ever. And to boot, you would have to have the body of all times to not look gross in them.
I think just some nice briefs would be better and we would all not cringe at the thought of somebody wearing those. Hey, maybe a Speedo and some gold chains.

Hope you know I am poking fun at you guys and not slamming you.

We have quite a cast of poets on this blog

Michelle

CLF - On 6/25 when the stock was trading at around 78, I sold a July 80 Put for too much money which is probably going to expire worthless on Friday.

Well, you are too late with the OA wear. Please look at the pictures in my blog. http://www.mybloglog.com/buzz/members/flying-pro/ After two weeks at the beach I have turned my Wife into an OA too. We were able to make the money that our vacation cost + a little bit in the market. Since we had already had the money to pay for vacation planned we don't need the money made in the market. It will stay in our margin account to compound over and over. Thanks for everything you have done for all of us Jeff. The knowledge is nice, but just knowing that there are other people out there making this work is great also. We have been able to make as much money on the down side as on the upside.

tom degroodt

Can anyone tell me how to get the Google/Blogger identiy to work without a google account?

DavidS :-(

Option Addicts.....Daytona International Speedway has changed their soda of choice to COKE....actually i heard all of NASCAR is changing, but Daytona will be one of the first to change....hmmm..... according to my chart KO broke out today (on earnings)....Jeff was it you or Eric who spoke of a "pairs trade" with pepsi and coke???

This maybe old news to any race fans (i could care less about the racing...i just thought we could use the info to make some money)

Amber....love the gear !!! even baby stuff !! love it !!! Jeff is lucky to have a partner like you...

Kim and everyone,

You bring up a good point about trading expensive options. Can I ask how you are approaching which option is too expensive based on your portfolio account. I control my risk, but I too may be trading options that are too expensive based on my account size.

Thanks,
Amy

What do you guys think about wynn put?

it looks like 100 seems to be resistance and just got a candle confirmation...

Tom Degroodt,

What a great way to end the day. That is what being an "Option Addict" is all about. I can't tell you enough how cool that is.

Thanks....

Phantom Poet,

I love the calendar idea, just make sure that Degroodt is "Mr. December."

Jeff, sorry that you think you are running people off again as it sure was not the case with me. We have a new large job for my baby just starting to walk company that kept me away from the office most of the day and presentations in San Deigo will do it again tomorrow. When I see you answering people on the blog I think we all think wow they were lucky.
Chris, CONGRATULATIONS buddy! We did not loose as much but have not made it back either. Just as we start to get close we get a correction that takes us down. After reviewing ALL my trades this weekend I thing I am an idoit and not sure why I am trading. The only think I had going for me was position sizing and most of the time I knew how to use TSO to enter a trade. My entries were terrible and exits crazy. The good news is that my entries are much better lately and now I am focusing on exits. I have found the same as Tim that my unwatched account out performs my watched one. Oh and one other thing I was "right" directionally on something like 90% of my trades but still did not make money, is that talent or what? As Tim would say (I think) the good news is that I can recognize a trend and trade with it. Now have to master the getting out.
Oh and Jeff Stacey makes it sounds really simple and exciting to trade the index options. Just ask the market to do what it normally does and take you profits. I wanted her may $30,000 in a couple hours live in one class. To most of us this sounds like the promised land until we try it.

All right Kohler, Degroot can be our December model but not in a thong. I am sure this site is monitored for family values. I was saving the January slot for a certain Canadian Pilot if you have no objections. I think an Option Addict Tee with pilot wings could elevate the status of the blog but, unfortunately, bring down Canadian Air. Your call. Best talk to C2 first.

The Phantom Poet

In reading all of this you have been giving me ideas of what I need to review and where i may need to adjust some strategies.

Got my sister coming in tomorrow so we will be attempting to work some during the daytime. (The kids are in VBS this week!) She is an OA as well, although fairly quiet, she is up over 100% on the year.

Its been a while since we've been able to get together so very excited to get the chance. And now it looks like we can do a little shopping as well. Kudos to you both on the store. I second the vote on boxers though, not so sure about the thongs.

I must get some ZZZ's, VBS starts a bit earlier than I am accustomed to awakening.

God night all!

Phantom poet...

Not too bad...I accept your challenge, and will deliver as promised to Jeff.

But his is not what had me bothered. It was nice when the blogging ended when the market closed. Now night blogging?

Jeeesh, I can't keep up!!!!

I think some of you are wearing OA thongs...and maybe a bit too tight...

Jeff, are they your number one seller??

I want mine in camo.

LYO

I reccomended this yesterday, anyone get in with me?


Up over $7 pre market on buyout :)

Option addict t-shirts - yes, love it. I want a fitted army green or camo. Can't see it so I guess I have to settle. nice Jeff!!

Bob,
Won't be the last good trade I miss (laughter.) I entered three trades at the wrong trade, so I held off entering anything else yesterday. Plus, I am expecting one day this week to be a correction day. That is always a good time to enter trades when they pull back.

Michelle

Per Kohlers request don’t you know it
And a challenge from the Phantom poet

I’ll don my thong its pink and black
I hate this feeling that’s in my crack

My thong is stylish, true addict wear
But from the back there’s lots of hair

My thong you know is tailor made
I paid for it with many a trade

In the front there’s just a string
I need more support for my thing

Phantom poet do you wear a thong?
Without firm cheeks I think its wrong

The Phantom poet who we don’t know
I’ll bet he wears it with a glow

Phantom poet you are very good
Does your thong come with a hood?

Strung in so tight it makes him grunt
What does he look like from the front?

And if you like a thong on a guy
From Kohler land then you should buy

Posing for the calendar Chip wants July
Chip in a thong will make me cry

Guys in a thong we have no biz
They belong on folks the likes of Liz

Boxers are my choice you know
I hope that you got in LYO

Thongs on guys I just do not see
I’d rather hang on to my BSC

Chip and Jamie and Logan as well
If you wear a thong I will not tell
I wonder now
What about Michelle?

Chris if you wear one on your chin
You’ll get hammered by Catherine

My thong is off and in the trash
Time to get ready and make some cash

Buyouts mergers acquisitions
Correctly size all your positions

Looking to trade I am liking DECK
I want an OA turtleneck

Support at $60 for TSL
We’ll have to wait as time will tell

Hey Phantom Poet are you there?
Who are you tell us if you dare!

Bob,
Sounds like it could be Chris.

What say you on GOOG and earnings today?

Michelle

GOOG reports Thursday night...the night before the July expiration. Yahoo reports today. Microsoft also reports Thursday as well. Friday could be a gap day...whch way, beats me..with the bull market, M & A's, could gap up..but I really don't know. If I did, we could all retire...

Proceed with caution...

TSL looking good this morning for you TSL holders..

I bought it right at support.

Michelle

say it ain't so SKX.....damn.

You down with CIB?

Yeah, you know me.

What is the news on skx? it is stopping right at resistance right now.


Did anyone take the ORB trade?

CIB off and running!
Thanks Brett for sharing the trade.

Amy

I don't remember CIB being on the radar? Did I miss it???

CIB - yeah!
Thank you, Brett!

AMG - on the other hand - not my best idea.

I'd like to present another idea.

Check out the 2-year on DBRN. You'll see a very strong uptrend. Then a long symmetrical triangle. It's now curling up from the lower trendline, getting closer to the apex. However, I see some strong volume spikes inside the triangle on some up days. Implied volatility is LOW and heading up. I'd like to suggest anticipating a breakout BY playing the bounce here. If you play the September $22.50's, and you catch the breakout OR a buyout, you're sitting pretty. If you're wrong, you're at support.

Thoughts?

DavidS-

SKX was upgraded this morning. Big deal, so was Heely's yesterday. Wait it out. The shoes suck, the stock sucks, and pretty soon that analyst will have unloaded all his shares and the stock will continue falling.

Thanks Brett:

Is anyone in SPWR? ANy thoughts?

FCSX

Raimo - I didn't see your post yesterday on LYO - it looked like a great entry. Congrats!

Brett - I am seeing enough resistance at about 21.20 to .25sh area to make me pass on DBRN.

Scoot

GOOG going to test $558....??

I think LZ is finally moving and could have a nice move soon, specially after the buy out today of a company in the same industry

Be a MAN.....

Does SHLD look like it is forming a bear flag?

Raimo,
You think LYO is near a low risk entry point for further moves ahead.



Arty

Arty,
I don't know about Bob, but you missed it. When a stock gaps up like that there is no way to manage risk. I would wait and see what it does tomorrow.

Michelle

Michelle and Arty-

When a company is bought out, the trade is most likely over with.

Scott-

Not sure what you're looking at on DBRN, but I applaud you for doing your own analysis and coming to your own conclusion.

Arty,

i heard this morning LYO being bought for $48 a share. I sold already. There is no trade here now.

You might want to check out LRCX

Amy,

In response to your question on position size.

Some of our holdings prior to re-positioning were:

HOC $8.00 call (1 Contract)
SPY $4.00 call (1 Contract)
DIA $3.30 call (1 Contract)
QQQQ $1.67 call (2 Contracts)
X $11.50 call (1 Contract)

Here was the percentage of total portfolio value for each of these options:
HOC 8%
SPY 4%
DIA 3.3%
QQQQ 3.3%
X 11.50%

Here is what was happening. With HOC and X, because they were such a large percentage of the total portfolio we were risking way too much on one trade, so if the trade went against us we were out a large percentage of our portfolio. When we owned SPY, DIA and QQQQ at the same time we actually held a 10.6% combined portfolio position, so when the markets had a down day typically all 3 of these options would be down at the same time.

Jeff has preached that no option play should be more than 1% of your total portfolio (Jeff or anyone correct me if I'm wrong on this). While this is difficult to do with a smaller portfolio it is possible and frankly crucial in my opinion.

We now won't buy an option play if it costs more than $6.00 per contract. That means big players like GOOG, AAPL, CME, etc. are off my radar. They don't fit in with proper position sizing based on my portfolio, for now.

To figure out my position sizing I just used this formula:

(Contract price times # of contracts held) divided by total account value.

I know this was long but I hope it was helpful.

EMC

I own a stock position in EMC and it is up 24% in two months. I want to hold over earnings on 7/23 and want to buy a protective put today.

I'm thinking I should buy an out of the money put but I'm not sure how far out. Can I get an opinion from someone?

Kim

Looking for a put:

ROG looks good and low risk.
Strong support at 35, looking at it as a swing trade.

Sorry, Don't see the pattern in DBRN. I think it is too long term for me if you have to go out to the 2 yr. I have tried, I have lost, and I know i just don't have the patience.

Rene

MAN O MAN

GSF approaching support...keep it on the radar list..

BSC finally acting like the way it should....

Kim,

Thanks for the info. Position sizing is something I definitely struggle with and need to review.

I played a vertical in GOOG because it was a small acct but i liked the trade. I should close it out for over 150% profit. That is a way that I have found to play the big ones with less money. I need to go now.

Rene

Brett - About DBRN - I am looking at a 1 year daily and seeing 21.25ish act as spt from 10/17 thru 11/6. Then I am seeing 21.18ish acting as spt/res from 2/12 thru 3/1. 21.25 as res on 3/26 and then as spt on 6/13. And then there is the recent highs on 7/5 thru 7/9 that had trouble getting above 21.17.

That's my .02.

Scoot

AAPL...for those of you still in it, I think it is just dying to really break higher and get above $140. I am still holding..praying??

Scoot,

Sometimes it helps to back out and see the big picture.

Anyway, it was just a suggestion.

ROG seems to be gaining some momentum, gapped down to $38.20 ish, filled that gap, and instead of turning down just kept on heading up.

MAN, does look good, but the volume is weak...so far

ROG, what I mean is gapped, went down, came back up to this $38.20 ish, then just kept on going up...
was not sure if previous post was clear or not
Just my $.02

Cogo is breaking

Anybody have a clue what's going on with GLBL ?

way to go Raimo on the LYO

cindy a

Since I am jabbering away so much today I wanted to give my $.02 on TSL.
I played a cup and handle break out on 7/13. My action point was the breakout of $68. A retest for me would have been fine yesterday, that is a retest of $68 (and $68 holding). This thing broke through $68 yesterday and proceeded down to $64.21 (with big volume). My $68 line was violated.....and violated hard.
Using this action point (the breakout price) as an exit helps me recognize my risk on each trade and minimize it.
Any comments would be appreciated.

Ladd-

Just follow your rules. You had a plan and you stuck to it. When TSL fires back up, there'll be plenty of time for you to jump back on.

Throwing my hat in the ring on DBRN..

I see resistance at $21 ish..though not strong. Yesterday it bounced of a nice diag support line with huge volume. I agree with Brett a low risk entry here. I agree wtih Scoot a long time for this pattern to take shape, but a 10 - 15% move in the stock happens pretty quickly within this big triangle..I see where Brett is going..No matter how you look at it, it is definitly low risk...

You must look at your rules, and see if this trade simply fits your style, and level of patience.

Anyway, my .03 cents worth...

Brett,
Interesting. My perception is that you tend to catch bigger moves in stocks and you use longer term charts (such as the 2 year). If this is true, how do you take spt/res into account (take DBRN for example)?

Scoot

This comment has been removed by the author.

Raimo,

Do you wait for end of day volume to trade those breakouts...MAN, or are you in? I've had my biggest losses on breakouts....thanks for the heads up on GSF! Beth Ann

Scoot-

I only look at support and resistance if it's major. I think the long-term triangle trendlines have contained the price nicely over the last year. This recent bounce off support offers a low risk entry. I see the $21 resistance, but if you back out, you'll see the price slice through it over and over again, so I think it gets through it to challenge that upper trendline again around $22.50. Then, if it gets through that, goodbye.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but i'm near support here clearly.

Morning,
It's taken me over an hour to get caught up on all the blogging!! Yesterday went from the thrill of victory to the agony of defeat. In the morning the account was up 7 or 8 percent and by close we were down 3%. Heavy sigh. GRMN is the big reason. Look at that candle from yesterday and now today it's down again. This is where I struggle. It is still well within it's trend but so far I've seen almost $2,000 come off the table from it's highs yesterday. Do I sell now and take my 300% gain, or let the trend continue... suffer through a few down days, and ride it back up?

Oh well DECK and DRYS are driving the ship today, thank goodness.

Doji Girl your analysis of ESV is perfect, I think. You got in at a bad time (I think right now is PERFECT!!) but if you ride it out your loss will become a gain. If I had cash I'd be getting in right now.

Bob R, what can I say, man. I think I'll be showing up with a van (yes... I hate to admit it, but we drive a van) full of yeungling. I'll keep a couple of cases of Corona at the bottom, just in case your beer store has run out. Awesome call on LYO (I missed that post, I guess) and LRCX looks nice in retrospect, but I wouldn't have taken the trade, as I saw %55 as pretty strong resistance and would have waited for it to break out (like... for instance... today.)

David S. I see SPWR as a great stock but I wouldn't be getting in right now. It looks to me like it'll pull back some before it continues up.

Finally... Michelle, thanks for the vote on being the Phantom. I sure wish I could take credit for his stuff, but it ain't me. I bow to the poetry Masters and will just sit back and enjoy the duel.

Chris

Thanks Brett on the comments and the DBRN idea. I like it.

Cheers

Brett,

I appreciate the explanation as I can see the chart in a different way now. It changes the R:R. It will be interesting to follow this one.

Many thanks - Scoot

Cindy,
Don't know what happened to GLBL. We have had options on that one for months and made a nice profit. Surprised to see that it had stopped out this morning. Oh, well, guess you've got to get off the train sometimes.

Bob,
I have AAPL stock, so I am going to let it do its thing.

Michelle

Kim, your formula for percentage of portfolio value doesn't make sense to me.

Shouldn't it be (Contract price * number of contracts * 100)/Porfolio value. You probably meant that.

Also, you might want to consider using risk rather than price when calculating percentage of portfolio. Option price shouldn't matter, its the risk or how much you could lose that should be the key.

For instance, if you have 1 contract and are only going to lose $1 of a $6 option in a $1000 portfolio. Your total risk is $1 of risk * 100)/1000 = 1%.

Predicting your potential loss on an option is tough so if you typically lose all 100% of the value then your risk is the full price. I generally use 50% of the option value because thats usually the worst it can get for me based on my historical exits. It's usually much better than that actually.

Using risk as your measure for how many options to hold allows you to consider a broader range of option prices and allows you to hold more options.

However in the end, stick with whatever rules are working for you.

Whatever your analysis, you gotta
agree DBRN makes explosive moves off that diagonal support line! Beth Ann

Brett,
Was that really you that suggested CIB? It just shows what illusions of grandeur will do to a fella's brain. I thought I'd found that one myself. Here I was patting myself on the back and it turned out to be you! Kind of creepy, but we'll just let it pass.

Jeff, I'm thinking that some OA sandals and white socks would do well in the beachwear section of the store. You could do a combo pack... speedo, socks, sandals, all for $25.99

We could call it "Geekwear." And you could sell glasses with duct tape holding the nose together as an add-on. Want to hire me as your marketing rep? Or better yet... VP of marketing. Catherine's usually better at this stuff than me, but this time I think I'm on to a winner (or weiner... sort of like WNR today.)

C2,

I don't do speedos either...

good idea C2. Bet Jeff could get a deal with CROX !!
cindy

TSO...

What a nice breakdown today.

DECK is back in action today also. Beth Ann

Brett and Raimo,

Are you going OTM based on yesterday's break-out of DBRN?

Tom Degroodt,

Thanks for the pics. The plane is beautiful. I used to own an older Beechcraft Mouseketeer. Seeing yours makes me want to fly again. It's been a few years. When I was learning to fly, I coaxed my instructor into doing a spin. It wasn't anything like the manual said it would be! Never did that again! Now the only spins I make are in trades that plummet. Where do you fly out of? Ever fly to FTL?

Is anybody other than Jeff and I milking the BTU cow? Fill that bucket Betsy, fill it.

Step-

Already in MEE, so I didn't want to overload on coal.

Great trade!

Step,
Yep, I have BTU and thinking of adding to it. Just been away from the computer a lot. Gotta go get some flowers soon to replace the ones the rabbits ate.

Michelle

Any idea why oil-related positions are down today? I haven't checked the news. TSO, SLB....


Michelle

Michelle, I have never added to a winning trade. What kind of situation would you consider doing this in? I assume your first target is about $45?

Brett, I missed the CIB trade and I am not happy about it - not happy at all. Met all of my rules and everything. There has to be some sort of way to beam all of your trades into my TOS account and have them automatically placed right? Either that or ill have to devise some sort of self-punishment system for missing a post. Perhaps smashing a finger with a hammer for each missed trade will help me get my act together.

Step,
Jeff had a post either a week or two ago about adding to positions. It was excellent. I am not sure I can spout it back the way he does. I add when the trade is going my way and I am profitable with the first position. When it's a call, I add at a support level (assuming it doesn't go straight up.) It's a little harder to pick a point for adding to a put. If it pulls back up and then heads down again, that's a good time to add. Sometimes if it is a cheap option, you can just take a chance and buy if there is no good adding point (it just keeps dropping without stopping for a pause.)
Michelle

I did not take the DBRN trade..just threw in my .03 on it..

GRMN seems to be negatively affected by buying out a distributor. Could this be true? It was headed up and up today then U-Turn. Would this be a re entry opportunity for me who has just returned from over seas?

Arty

Arty,

I am not in GRMN, and would love to get in myself. It is up nearly 40% since June...and due for a pullback one would think.

I see no place to get in, not yet, and certainly not on a small pullback like today..and earnings due out...for me, not a good scenario to get in..

DBRN - I see Brett's 2 year pattern but since it took 2 years to develop, I don't believe it is valid as an asc. tri. Otoh, it is also at support so it is still a low risk entry. For my personal taste, I'd rather a trade on GSF which I will probably jump on by today's end.

TSL getting close to $60...

Kind of a lackluster day. Some things up a little, some things down a little. Not feeling compelled to do any major trading.

Going to Home Depot. Check you guys later.

Bob,
Guess we'll see what is UP for GOOG in the next couple of days.

Michelle

Bottom Feeder,

You are absolutely right with the missing multiple of 100 in my calculation. My brain just automatically transposes the option price over 2 decimal places when I'm making my calculations. But I don't want my warped brain causing people miscalculations, so thanks for the correction.

On the risk side of the equation, I do calculate potential downside of trades before taking them, which is how I enter my stop loss orders. However, with smaller portfolios higher priced options can affect overall portfolio value very quickly with their movements if they move against you. I have experienced it firsthand in my account. Maybe Jeff can explain it better than me.

Uh, Jeff....are you there?

Kim

Michelle,

Briefing.com was reporting that the pullback in the price of oil today is spurring some profit taking.

Scoot

Wow, I wish I had waited on the TSL trade. It is looking ugly. Good thing I only bought 50 shares and was planning on holding it awhile. I'll have to re-evaluate it this afternoon.

Michelle

JOYG What is going on today? Anyone else in this trade? It's eaten up 1/2 my profits today. This is where I need the hutspa to continue to follow the trend.

I think I'll pour a glass of wine and mull this over.

TSL ... falling knife or great entry?

My hunch is that the uptrend is confirmed broken....well duh! So then it becomes, is there bottom-feeding opportunities on this 15% pullback in 2-days, or keep hands off until the dust settles?

Matt

ps. got out first thing this am, whew!

Raimo, $60ish is holding... so far....

JOYG - I bailed on it early this morning. As a swing trader I didn't want to wait around for this to hit support and go back up. Plus, I had an August option so time was a factor. For the trend traders, it isn't broken.

MRVL - FINALLY some movement. I was getting ready to close this trade because nothing was happening (I really do have patience issues) but today it's finally moving.

This comment has been removed by the author.

JOYG bounced off my profit target yesterday but I missed to opportunity to sell, so I canceled my stop order today and put in a limit order this morning expecting it to climb enough to fill...oh well..

I too have August options so I've got to re-evaluate what I want to do. Maybe over a second glass of wine.

JOYG, higher highs, higher lows, whats not to love?

VA beach girl..

MORE wine?? I may have to switch from Yuengling..

Will that give me this Hutspa you speak of, LOL ??

Throwing down a yuengling myself..between that, Bretts burrito and the beach girls wine..perhaps an end of day bull rally...at least into the close ...

If TSL breaks above $61.50, I may go long at this low risk entry..

REDF showing support too.....pull up the two year, HZ trendline at $21 ish...

I like where CME is sitting right now, very tempting...

STR is looking strong on this down day it should move to the 60