Random Thoughts

The news of this referee marks a all time low for the NBA. First the Cavs vs. Spurs Final, the Kobe Tape, and then this! What I can't get over is thinking about all those unlucky people betting on the potential outcome of a basketball game and losing everything. Good thing this guy didn't officiate my Warrior games.

Check out the details of these "fixed" games...

ESPN: "In the two seasons in which the FBI is investigating Donaghy for allegedly fixing games for gambling purposes, Bell found that, in games when Donaghy was part of the officiating crew, NBA teams scored more points than Las Vegas expected (hitting the over) 57 percent of the time. With a league average of 49 to 51 percent, the odds of such an occurrence are 19 to 1."

..."At the start of the 2007 calendar year, Bell said, there were 10 straight games in which Donaghy was part of the officiating crew and the point spread moved a point and a half or more before tip-off, indicating big money had been wagered on the game. In those 10 contests, according to Bell, the big money won all 10 times."

Big money always wins in the long run. This is why we check for unusual volume before taking our trades. I am tempted to discuss market makers fixing the market, specifically on the Amex, but not today. I'd rather keep rambling.

I listened to David Stern's press conference about this mess and he had quoted this as the biggest disaster he has seen in the league. For some reason it had me thinking about Mark Cuban. He has racked up numerous fines and openly criticizes officiating in the NBA and has done so for quite some time. In reading his blog, rather than take the high road and say "I told you so," he says...

"The NBA took a hit today. Behind that hit is a catalyst and opportunity for significant change that could make the NBA stronger than it ever has been. Its a chance to proactively put in place people, processes and transparency that will forever silence those who will question the NBA's integrity. I have complete confidence that David Stern and Adam Silver will do just that and the NBA and our officiating will be all the stronger for it."

Glad he's optimistic.

Yeah, I know... I bet most of you don't want to read about sports, but there is so much controversy out there right now. I love it! There's Michael Vick the dog killer, Barry Bonds "fixing the home run record," the ridiculous relocation of the Beckhams...

And Lindsay Lohan gets busted again! Another DUI and a dime bag of cocaine to add to her stellar resume.
Clearly with all of these train wrecks going on around us, the VIX has responded...

Another reason to gently ease off the buying ( a little ) and diversify with some option selling. Keep watching the meltdown in Realty stocks and Financials...there is so much premium out there for the taking.

I am starting to get a little more cautious though. This pullback today is pretty significant. The breadth is horrible, and there is some panic selling in the futures market as we head into the close. Have you seen Countrywide and the other subprimes? Crushed.

I don't know what to make of all this,

But I have a reason why Scott Baio is 45 and still single...

Recommendation: Play defensively. I'm not sure what we are getting into, but it smells fishy.

Long: the VIX

Short: Scott Baio

I am taking a few bigger losses today than expected. I had an exit strategy, but the stock price blew right through it...CTRP and FTO.

I have waited until the end of the day to exit my positions. Now what? Suck it up and move on?


I mentioned this in the comments a few days back, but if waiting until the close means taking bigger losses, you might want to consider a "worst case" scenario...or specify a loss on the trade that you wouldn't be willing to exceed. Perhaps you can watch the daily charts, and if the stock isn't providing any signs of strength, get out before it gets worse.

Getting hammered on my bulls today, but my bears are kickin' in.

Heads up! FIG just broke hard.

I, too, got out of CTRP with a bigger loss than expected. Same deal.... waiting till the end of the day. Guess there will always be times when it benefits you, but other times when it doesn't. Something I continue to struggle with--whether my rule should be "as soon as it hits my max loss, get out". Regardless of time of day....


I remember your article. The day it posted, I wasn't having any problems. Go figure. Today is my day, and I wasn't prepared. What a great (and expensive) learning experience!

Thanks for your comments, Jeff.

Man! We just got hit by a 'tsunami' at close! Couldn't click the SELL SELL button soon enough on CTRP and FTO and a few others ...

Just proved STRONGLY to me today ... BALANCE! My PUTS were all winners in a pretty big way .. and they balanced my CALLS big-time ...

I'm with Amy ... some of the fast drop got below my stops before I could trigger sells ... but it was nothing drastic ...


Jeff ....

Would it be a good idea to keep that $VIX in front of us more .. and when that thing creeps up like it did today ... maybe move to sell quicker than end of day? We've had days like this before and it shifts the other way just as big.

I keep seeing you show $VIX and I may not be paying enough attention to that?


GOOG looked GOOD today....


Absolutely. This is why I keep sharing it. The VIX is only useful during the extremes, and this is certainly becoming an extreme. There isn't much action within it, but at least it gives you some market sentiment.

Great call on PSA and thanks for BSC. Kept the day bearable.

Thanks Jeff ... very helpful as is the rest of this blog is .....



Yeah shorts! :)

At least I freed up some bucks to buy some select stocks! Tonights homework!

Whew! I didn't think I could hold my breath that long. Tomorrow has to be a better day...



Here is how I played it.

I have AUG puts...if BSC pulls back up from the support area it is at, I may not have enough time for it to head back lower again..so, at the end of the day today I pocketed my profit of 50 %.

I can always get in with more time if it breaks this support area, or if it rallys back up and bounces back down again...I can get back in then.

Hey guys. Today was the worst day my account has seen since 2/27. Mainly, because I am almost all bullish. But, I've also been trying to take a little longer term approach to things and I have been reminding myself that every time in the past that we've seen a major pullback, things usually bounce as soon as I exit.

So, I like what "Scoot" said about "weeding out" the bad trades. I exited a couple because they broke lines on big volume (like FTO), but I stuck with most, giving them a little more wiggle room and at the very least I'm going to give them a chance to recover tomorrow. Here's hoping.

In the past, I've always gotten whipsawed because I have exited with the panick selling. So, trying to work on that.

That's been my approach. Trying to hang in there until the bulls wake up from their nap.

Anyone go long GOOG today..held real nice..

CAll me crazy, I held FTO looking to $42 for support..

Hello addicts. I have been on the sideline now for 2-3 weeks and have learned so much from all of you. -Love the Drums Doji- thank you all for posting your frustrations. It is good to hear others vent, inlighten and confirm each other on this mess. I too am hurting today but did take some off the counter yesterday so it could be much worst. Anywho - thought I should introduce myself and stop snooping on the sidelines. You are all great, the poetry battle takes the cake.




(wel, and to cheer everyone up)

Again with the wise cracks and making me laugh
But at least I have big ones just like a giraffe
I eat healthy but fries your accusal
I even supplement with metamusal
Now not a fatty and not even plump
I bet a thong would look good on my rump
Not that I’d wear one cause I’d have no biz
I am sure it looks better on Kim or on Liz
Now me and Brett compared to a Smurf
We are trim and fit and boy can we surf
Brett is my friend and a Smurf he is not
He is the watcher of markets and tells us what’s hot
Oh phantom you lacky and lurker of late
Why is it that you cannot find a date
Thin like linguini as we all know
And a beer fattened belly is starting to grow
When you look down there is little to see
Your belly I hear gets in the way of your pee
Chip is looking and out on the hunt
I even taught him the Marine Corp grunt
Phantom Poet I hope you trade well
Brett gave you a gift in TSL
So listen you lacky you lurking beast
When I catch you I will have a feast
Hide and lurk and ponder and peer
Come out of the closet so we don’t think that your queer!!

tomorrow will bounce higher,,look at what AMZN is doing after earnings


Raimo, i agree that FTO is still holding a longer term trendline. I almost stayed in but got out because my entry was based on the shorter term, steeper trendline and because the volume was big. I still think it will trend upward and I might get back in if it holds.

Yeah, my account took a hit today, BUT, I closed eleven trades today, 5 winners and 6 losers. Winners averaged 47%, losers 29%. My account balance was down; my closed trades (money in my pocket) were up. Even with today’s unrealized beating, I am well on my way to recouping last month’s screw-ups.

In reality, I could have done MUCH better and sold positions with earnings this week earlier in the week during a short term pullback (POT comes to mind, I really thought it would bounce…) or today when the volume on the price action dictated that I should run for the hills and not look back (FTO, RL, and MSM come to mind). Next time.

With the VIX reaching 52 week highs, I will slow down, reposition trade sizes and wait for direction.

Call me crazy but still hanging in BIDU,GOOG,CMI,APA,CME, sold AAPL some yesterday the rest this morn. I may be wrong but I feel the mkt. will rebound tomorrow Hopefully!!! Good Luck to Everyone.

Even after a day like today, which really sucked quite frankly, I'm still firmly planted in the thought that we as a group will be able to adapt to the market change if there is one coming. We won't be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bull market to come back...we'll just be making bucket loads of dough along with the bears!


Like your attitude Kim..

YIKES! Stepped away from the computer to buy a car, and came back to the DOW down ANOTHER 140pts.

Glad I didn't get the Mercedes!!

Thank you AMZN! Hope that gives the market a lift tomorrow!

Raimo, I agree. I've been waiting a LONG time an FTO
pull back to the 50MA.

Hope everyone takes time to relax tonight. Beth Ann

Kim ... I second that attitude and I totally agree ....

"One day doth not a trend make!" (or something like that! :)

FTO pulled back and way past any support I see. Why is anyone still in it?

All I can say is... it's good to get back to the blog. I missed so much, Bright Eyes, the Taiko Drums (very cool by the way Doji Girl), Raimo's poems, human transformers... oh, and the DOW going down almost 230 points! My account took a bit of a hit today but I can't really complain because I'm still up but it does really suck anyway. It seems like a lot of the favorites went down today.

Anyway, it's taken awhile to get caught up with the blog and I'm slowly getting back into the game again. I have very few positions at the moment. We'll see what the rest of the week brings after earnings. And yes, I am holding a couple over earnings. ;-)


If you held anything over earnings, I hope it was Amazon!!!

AMZN - forever a thorn in my side. Several years ago, I'm thinking 1999 or maybe earlier, I bought some. Can't remember exactly when or exactly how much I paid but it was about 45ish. This was in an IRA account in a retail brokerage firm that I wasn't really trading or paying attention to. In the beginning of this year, I switched the account to TOS and started paying attention. The stock just couldn't seem to get above 40 and stay there so I finally sold it. This was about 2 or 3 weeks before last quarter's earnings which sent it soaring. To hold something for all those years and sell it 3 f'ing weeks too soon! Arrrgghhh!

Anyone see NTRI after hours? Ouch!


I held some FLIR over earnings. Does that count?

AMZN - funny thing is I was watching some headlines about a week ago and I saw a HUGE block of AMZN being bought. It was enough for me to put AMZN on my watchlist because it just jumped out at me. Next time I will follow my hunch with a little money because "as old Pat Hearne used to remark, "You can't tell till you bet"".

Congrats to all who held it.



Wish it was AMZN! I just looked at the after market change. Missed that one. I've got almost 2 weeks worth of catching up to do and I'm still getting caught up. Congrats on all those that held.


Marketcast still not up??? Is everyone jumping out off of a cliff??? I have never been so happy losing money as I was by the end of the day ;-)) What a roller coaster ride. At the end of the day I had bought some stuff, sold some stuff and when the dust settled I had lost $3.48 less than I had made yesterday. The good thing is, like Logan said, some of my trend trades that I have been in for a while got closed and now ALL OF THE PROFITS ARE MINE ;-) With all of the swinging around prices are doing I don't think that cash is a bad position. Can't wait to find the next big trade to be able to ride.

Tom D (Flying Pro)

Ouch! I was out all day and come back to this! Tim I am with you as my account is currently below 2/27 today. If tomorrow is another account blashing day I will probably be closing things out to regroup. Deck killed us in our account and we are trading it as stock. Only have BGC, HCP, CTRP and held one GSF which I should not have. DECK, PCP and GMCR are stock trades that I thought I would hold longer term. All but GMCR broke trend/support so should be out but was not here to pull the trigger. Liz, what a welcome back, at least not as bad as Crash day!
Why do I still feel positive about the market and my being able to get the best of this and make money? Not sure why but I do, and believe this blog and all of you are to blame - well at least partially.

Hi everyone,

First time poster. First, wanted to thank Jeff for all the PUT trades that saved my butt today (BSC-55%, HLYS-50%) and also for some CALLs too (GSF-35%, DECK-105%, PCU-155%). My real question - I just finished watching Part I and Part II of the Weekly Watchlist and many stocks mentioned got pummeled. Will you revisit this list (just a quick yes or no - many look to be invalid now). Thanks...


Thanks for the welcome back. I'm in DECK as well but it didn't close below my resistance line but it hurt nonetheless. I think it might go right back to it's 10 day moving average before it bounces back up again. Earnings are coming up on the 26th. I'm in this one for a little longer period so I'm letting it move a little more. Still sucks though. Boo! Hoo! At least for the day.

I think I'm feeling the same way as you are. Maybe it was the break away from it all. I still feel pretty good about everything though.

I guess we'll see what the rest of the week brings. Maybe more tears... of elation? or sadness?



Care to display the Black-Scholes formula on your t-shirt ?
Then check out this link


Liz, great to have you and Grant back and hope you had a great time even though you did not get to hook up with Chris. I am in Sacramento visiting family and building cabinets for my Mom. My Dad started them and then pasted away before he could finish them. You know it is twice as tough trying to figure out how someone else would complete the job.
I see this as an example for trading too. There are so many successful ways to get the cabinets built but the way that worked for someone else like my Dad may not work for me and in this case even though we were close and similar in many ways I have no idea how he planned to complete this job. While we all try to help each other many times it is nearly impossible to know someone else's plan and how they started the job (trade). So far I am better at cabinets...
Sorry, you build cabinets you get a lot of time to think!
Well the futures look up strong right now what does that mean? Also the CAST is down what does that mean? See what I mean about thinking too much?


That's great!


My eyes are seeing a Cup and Handle on the VIX.



Grant and I were so sorry that it didn't work out to meet up with Chris. That was going to be the highlight of our trip. Let's just say... without trying to sound too dramatic (which is hard)... we had to leave early and we won't be going back again. We'll go visit Chris though. He's cool! Except when he wears speedos on the beach. I think Jeff put those g-strings on option addict gear for him. (We love you Chris!) We've been trying to salvage what was left of the vacation here at home. First time Grant has had a vacation in 5 years so we wanted to still get as much out of it as we could. And we did. We've been having fun here. Beach, Orange County Fair and all.

I love your analogy about the cabinets. It's really beautiful.


Bob (and Pam),
I am sorry to hear about your dad's passing.
I thought the cabinet/trading analogy was perfect.

Bob and Pam,

My sympathies.

Thanks for the kind words. It has been one of those days as I am finishing a job my Dad started with tools he used in his shop that I have never worked in before. Interesting that I found this like trading but I did. As I said lots of time to think.
Thanks again, and hug someone you love - you never know...


My manhood you insult quite frequently
but I think it is you that is quite secretly,
so far in the closet you are near the back son
and your closet has a secret place like Michael Jackson's,
so often you mention beer and your weenie
Oh, and I can never again eat linguini,
but once to ofter you bring up the thong
your longing for one is obvious but wrong,
the OA that appears on its front
stands for "only average" so please don't,
make references to the mighty giraffe
'cause when you shower,people point and laugh,
the market treated me badly today
then came your poem and I must say,
I don't like the feeling of being hunted
by two men whose growth has been obviously stunted,
by playing with army men, guns and gear
and a dolly named Barbie I truly fear,
so, my tongue is not the property of a feline,
and I think you should make a beeline,
to your pad and compose more prose because now I am tired and need to dose,
'till the morning and when I do arise
there on my computer will be a surprise,
from Raimo, I am sure some witty retort
because what we do is all in good sport,
so my friend, turn on the closet light
because now it is your turn to write!

The Phantom Poet

I have noticed that on the Blog that the number of posts has been hitting resistance on up days in the market at about 135 and on down days when we get the shit kicked out of us posts are bouncing off support at about 45. The OA blog chart looks like the VIX on steroids (Or Lindsey on Blow).

Not that I have been typing till my fingers bleed, but I got killed today.

I have been looking for a little consoling.

Some one to tell me to keep my head up, or that Deck is going to bounce...........................

That my mis management of position size is normal for a 270 pound clumsy guy.

That Brett is going to have an after hours burrito. Or a pre market breakfast burrito.

That Michelle actually bought AMZN into earnings.

That the reason the Cast wasn't posted tonight was because Ernest and Julio were out taking up a collection for me.

That Raimo is drinking A yuengling on his porch in an option addict thong.

That Chris is getting a haircut.

That the Phantom is coming out of the closet.

That Scoot is going to make a bet.

That Benton got a 25" montior to display the VIX.

That Tim bought some puts.

That Doji Girl sold NTRI short to make up for a long ugly slow dance with AMZN.

Liz to remind me to follow my rules.

Dedgroot bought a shirt.

That Jerry is out on a long drive.

Amber to send me an Option Addict embroidered hanky to cry on

and that Erin Moran is going to hook up with Scott Baio one last time.

Sorry for not posting after colossal ass kicking like I took today but at least I still am looking forward to a great day tomorrow.


Everybody's on a roll tonight! Dizzy from the drop in the DOW?


The Cast is up...

Time for bed...


Funny stuff...

I'll get you my pretty!

Who needs TV? Who needs movies? Who needs concerts? Just read the Kohler OA blog for all of your entertainment enjoyment!!

Raimo - PP and ARTY - funny stuff! And Arty, you out-did yourself .... I would write more but I have to get out and get that 25" monitor for the VIX! HILARIOUS!

Good day to all ... Yesterday is history ... today is the day to re-align and get after this market! Good luck to all!

FTO (to anonymouse)

Draw a trendline starting at the bottom of the candle on 3/5/07 and extend across your chart touching the bottom of the wick on the candle on 4/20/07, the bottom of the candle on 5/10/07 and the wick on the bottom of 5/16/07. That trendline is JUST below yesterdays close.

HZ support line. Right at $42, runs across the the top of the candle on 6/5/07, the bottom of the body of the candle on 6/207 and thta is the line that the wick of yesterdays candle hit.
Plus, I still see higher highs and higher lows in an uptrending stock.

Am I happy with yesterdays more than $3 drop, no. Did I panic and sell, no. The market is in need of a pullback, we got it. I am still bullish until the market tells me differently. This week may change my mind, but until then, I will follow the chart, NOT my emotion.

For those of you that exited FTO, as long as you had your defined rules planned beforehand and followed them, great job.


I am down huge yesterday but you know its days like this I learned a lot. Just the couple of days previously I sold teh 3-5 puts I had because I wasn't "seeing enough movement in them. And because of all the great looking setups for calls I was all in the calls yesterday. I realize now the reason we take puts even if they are not performing as well as the calls is that we can never know when we will have days like yesterday or 2/27. I think a few weeks ago Jeff had posted about one way to protect your self even when it seems we are in a directional market is to vary the portion of your account that is in contrarian positions. Yesterday taught me taht lesson and burned it into my memory and account. My account will recover and my memory will serve me well in the future. You can do this Arty we all can, only each in our own time and way.


After yesterday I have learned. The path to success is not knowing everyting but being willing to learn. Today I have cash to invest And I will look for at around 30% put positions

I have read about how many of the other OA have made it back to their pre 2/27 accoutn balances. We can do it. If each day no matter how paoinful you are willing to learn you are on your way to success.

SKX missed ... indicating down 4.5

This was on the jeff's or Brett's list I believe.

JOYG changed guidance this morning. Looks like that is going to kick my butt today.

IYR seems to have reasonable IV (all things considered). The contracts are in $1.00 increments. I've seen this kind of thing before but never traded it. Can any body give me their take on this? I am looking at Sept. 75.put


Goog 525 today - Market up 200 today - screw the bears - the Bulls control

Sorry to hear about JOYG. Check out CTX on a 5 year chart. They reported earnings late yesterday and it wasn't good.


DNA...just keeps creeping upward, even on a huge down day like yesterday. I'm contemplating getting out before it hits my stop. Anyone else pondering this put that just won't go with us?


Whoever brought LFC to my attention, THANK YOU! up over $3.00


Kim, I'm still in DNA and I've got a downward trendline since feb drawn and it still looks like it's hanging under there. I don't like how it's been acting during the down days but it's also been going down on up days recently, so until it breaks the trendline, I'm in.

But be careful following my advice because if DNA acts like the rest of my trades then it's bound to gap up 100% overnight sometime. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration.

Yeah, LFC has been great and I'm in it. That's a bright spot. But why are all of my good trades in my IRAs and the bad ones in my margin account. This is the problem.

Got caught in the JOYG today. I am seriously thinking of flattening my account, taking a month or two off, going back to some old red and green arrow reading, and then getting back in. Hard to believe I was up 100% for the year and am now back to 40% in a week even with good position sizing, stops, taking good set ups, etc. These gaps are killing my fundage. Perhaps it is time to look into the snail profitting ETF spreads.

Ryan in SF
aka: The "Dude, where's my delta" guy

Got in JOYG yesterday on the hope of the bounce...lost at the end of the day and followed my rule and exited. Came in today and was glad I did. Sorry Tim, I share your frustration.

On the upside (references to PP and Raimo not intended) MTXX breaking higher.

Heard an interesting sound bite on the radio on the way home...the lady analyst was saying something like "You know at the end of a Bull Market the daily swings get larger and larger, so hang on." The implication: the crash is coming. The reality: who knows?


The EEM has been steadily dropping this morning. GLD, SLV and the FXE are all down as well this am.


After dealing with yesterday and seeing Jeff display that $VIX again (thanks Jeff) ... I have added it to my 'watch' ... it's right at $18 ... (as I write this)

If I understand things right ... and I'm learning like you guys all the time ... caution should prevail .. I have cash sitting in the account and it can sit there until I see safe places to put it. There is no rush! It's summer / earnings season ... so we know it's not as stable as other times of the year.

4% cash earnings is better than 50% losses because of hastily made decisions. Just my $.02.

FTO - still bleeding / GOOG down and APPL is a cautious buy because of the AT&T numbers and Apple earnings soon. More info on that will show later today. BA is up on earnings but DECK is getting decked.

So I choose to let things settle and see ... Emotion and no blog posting shows up during this time ... Let's keep plugging at it!

new thread...

Best day in options last week, worst day in options this week. Sigh, but good times. Still learning a lot feeling more confident than before about being able to right the ship and correcting the course. I've learned a lot from reading this site and from you guys. The conference call last week was great fun. I hope we can do that more often. Jeff you've been great. I've learned so much from reading the posts by Brett and the other regular posters also.

I've managed to push my account higher and higher each time. I was at my highest gains ever before yesterday. Now I am at a loss again. Time to play catch up a bit. Gotta learn that whole don't lose your gains thing.

I was up over 50% on 7 options, and 170% on AAPL oops (overall account was up about 12-13%). After yesterday, overall account is down about 20%. My position sizing and diversification was ok (actually not - I had no bearish plays but I was spread out evenly between industries etc.), but I had no hard stops, my mental stops were drawn on my charts and I was in court yet again i.e. couldn't get to my account during the big 2 hour slide.

So here we go again, as usual trying to make up ground for losing gains I shouldn't have lost, because I wasn't smart about my gains.

I shall continue to grow and learn. I'll get there, my technical analysis and stock picking has done pretty well, but my market forecasting is poor at best. And risk management... LoL.

The story of my trading is that I am pretty good at picking entries, and making money, and even getting out of trades with gains. I then get blindsided by bad news, earnings, or a big tumble on an overpriced stock that eats a big chunk of my earnings or hands me a loss.

These are my weaknesses, well at least the glaring ones... I could bore you to death with the whole list.

James H.

Another sad day for me. I exited 9 calls yesterday with losses. Thank goodness for puts in BSC - as well as HLYS.
I will exit TSL soon. Is anyone still in HIG?


Do you have support for GOOG at 502.50? Thanks.

When you exit prior to earnings, do you exit before the earnings report or before the conference call if they are on different days? Thanks.

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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