Hey JK,

Awesome list as always! Thanks heaps big guy!

Pete

Thanks, Jeff! I got into KBH yesterday and I am up today so thanks for that, too.

P.S. I spit coffee onto the screen with your comment, "The market knows who you are." LOL

Arty, saw your reply post last night but too tired to reply. You know I missed that whole BPHX to homebuilders connection but I see it now. ; )

Jeff-

Thanks for the watchlist. It's good to see that I had some of the same symbols on my watchlist. It makes me feel like I know what I'm doing... or at least getting there.

liz

Good morning Bob!

I'd love to have something witty to say this morning but I can't think of anything. My brain seems to be on slow mode today. So just... hello.

liz

GOOG-

Listened to Jeff's price pattern class this morning and he was referring to GOOG as a potential set up of a head & shoulders.

Kim

Jeff, thanks for the watchlist and sorry that you have to think about legal issues related to it.

Who eats oatmeal?

Jeff - thanks for the watchlist. It is very helpful to look at the market from your perspective. I have been helped tremendously by all of your and the rest of the addicts efforts!

Kim,
I'm glad you made the class. I will have to listen to the recorded version during naptime. My kids are pretty demanding in the a.m.

Michelle

Was the PP trading room recorded this morning? I went to watch it and I got the one from last week.

Hey Addicts,

Haven't seen any information on the get together in Chicago. Has anything been announced?

Eric.

Brett,

Would you take a look at DAKT. Is this and example of a double bottom with the three soldiers candle pattern? It is pulling back now but would the action before form about Aug 6th qualify?

Anu

Yes, Anu, and the soliders are actually in the right place on this one! However, earnings are tomorrow. So anything can happen.

we finish up today....

Up today? Way to take a stand!

Who else wants to make a call?

It's dead in here again...

Raimo, can I post the rattler pic today?

Jeff,

Thank you for the list. I appreciate your taking your valuable time to help educate me. My twins started their senior year yesterday so I am ready to roll up my sleeves and delve in. My husband, Perrin, and I will begin the on-line seven week course on 8/27 that replaces the three day live course. I am sure I will be better prepared for this since reading your blog and watching your videos. Thanks again...
Ann

Jeff,

Inspite of all the problems you put effort in posting the materials. Appreciate your efforts and time.

Have a nice day!!

Thanks, Meena

Sure Jeff, today a good day too. I plan on doing the same to the damn bears next!

AND, My crystal Ball tells me my ole pal Brett is tossing down a Burritto...

Good luck Raimo!

Guns, burritos... nothing will stop the bears!

Except a surprise rate decrease of course. Temporarily that is...

Does anyone have a take on KIM I just shorted the stock ( high I.V.) on everything I look at.Its above support but just below the 30 day ma MACD. rolling over.I'm risking 1.00 to make 2.00 if hits support. If breaks support I'm happy! P.S. ICE missed earnings

**************ATTENTION ALL YOU PESKY RUSSIANS, DANES, NORWEGIANS, AND AMERICANS************

We Canadians herby proclaim the North Pole as our own. If you don't stop trying to drill oil wells in it we will have to use force. We are currently amassing a fleet of Sleds and will soon have enough Huskies up there for a full platoon of Dog Sleds. Our refineries are stock piling spears and horseshoes to heave at you (and Catherine's now in the Tuna sandwich making business... so in a while we'll have lots of those too) so BACK OFF!!! Get your own North Pole. This one is ours.

We now return to our normal programming.

I was sure PCP was going to pop today. It's been such a great trending stock and the last week had brought it right back to support. If it stays where it is today I'm going to have to bail on it. But I really don't want to.

A word of caution. Remember to remain diverse in this market. For those of you whose Crystal Balls are failing them, and you're only in a few things... make sure they're not all puts on financials and housing sectors. That's even more important for those whose Balls are full. I only mention this because I looked at my watch list and all I see are puts on those two sectors.

Oh... and a ham sandwich that must have fallen in there last week.

Can't wait for the picutre, Jeff

Thanks for the watch list. Isn't technology a great thing? I'm pretty much on the sidelines right now, but watching and waiting. I am so impressed with Brett, Rambo, Bob (and Pam), liz, laney, DG, Michelle... so many who are posting regularly. I've been away so much lately and flying during the days that I haven't been able to keep up, let alone post.

Michelle- PP class was definitely worth watching. Lots of little light bulbs are now burning. Now they just need to get brighter!

I know I don't want to be teaching people price patterns at 6:30 in the morning. I don't know how you do it, Jeff...thanks for clearing some of the cob webs from my head on this stuff.

Kim

Chris,
Good to hear from you. I was watching PCP, but it doesn't seem to be holding as well as I'd like.
I am looking for strong stocks to put some money in that I don't have to watch every second when the market moves around.
Here are some that I think show some relative strength (my opinion).
CVD
POT
VMI
I like Brett's idea on the triangle on BIDU
And I think RIMM holds pretty well as long as you can get it at 208/210, plus split coming up which sometimes boosts stocks until after split.

Michelle

Diregard that comment on ICE

Ramio,

I am with you. Let us see what happens.

Anu

I I see a possible break of a bear flag on FFIV today depending on how it closes. What do you guys think?

Just an observation ...

FXY (Yen/Dollar ETF) is up today. Bad for U.S. stocks.

FXE (Euro/Dollar ETF) is down today and confirming what looks like a double top. Again, bad for U.S. stocks.

Joel R.

C2.....i thought santa clause had dibbs on the north pole???

jeff....where's the pics of bob's cabinets???

i finally got to watch a movie !!! a little free time was nice!!! THE LADIES MAN.....it was pretty funny (SNL)

is GS going to zero ??

http://www.cnbc.com/id/20263063/site/14081545

anu,
I like the flag on FFIV, but I don't see the volume today (yet) for a breakout. Once it breaks out, though it could go forever! Looks like a $25 pole, to me.

Tonya... didn't anyone tell you Santy is a Canadian?

Anyone looking for a decent call in this wacky market should have a look at DRYS. It's hovering near support. The teeny tiny candlesticks have become massive whoppers lately, what with all the volatility... but it could still be a good play.

fbr... "hi" bach atcha. Don't be shy. C'mon out and play.

HELP _ HELP _ HELP

Thanks to this group my account is making me smile BIG.

I only have calls or stock in FLR and BRC.

I have Puts on GS, PHM and XHB.

My account is doing great, but here is my problem. Alot of unrealized gains on the puts. Minor loss on BRC. Sitting at the computer bored. Want to buy somthing, Want to cash in the unrealized gains.

Need to let winners run and not get out of a losing trade until it has broken support. Afraid to get out of the BRC trade incase the market goes way up tomorrow and all of the puts go to crap.

Need someone to come sit on my hands or turn the computer off for me.

Is anybody in RATE? I looked yesterday at the set-up and was going to buy some NOV 50 Put's. Looks like I had my limit order $0.10 too low and never got filled. We have been having luck putting in limit orders using TOS Analyze tool to find a price target. Rather than put a stop in I have been looking at where I think I can "get taken out". Last Fiday and again yesterday I had placed limit orders to buy back naked puts on GS. Both days market opens, GS goes higher, I get filled. Both days GS dies on the vine and I sell the same OTM put naked again for about $250 more than I had covered it in the morning. With VOL so high and only a couple of days left in Aug it was easy money.

Chris, Ever do any extra cirrucular Acrobatics. If you can find the picures on my blob the Christian Eagle is pure delight.

Tom D (Flying-Pro)

Chris, welcome back. Tonya, I thought everyone had forgotten about those cabinets so just Jeff looked at them and thought them cool. Up to him if he wants to post them.

I am so boring, only in LEN, SHV and BPHX. Up a whole $60 so far today! I am feeling like M as I have not been able to watch the computer full time.

Tom, I need to learn that analyze tab. I like what you outline but do not know how to do it.

just learning to use the block, been watching a long time.
AKA: fbr, S&F, and the deer at the top of the of the option addict list. do i have to enter my user name and password everytime i want to send a note?

Hi Stump-

I log in with my Google account and it keeps me logged in as long as I'm on the blog. I keep the blog window on my desktop throughout the day. I am a true option addict after all...

Jeff-

We want Bob's cabinets!

My on sale gene must be vibrating hard today because I've jumped into GRMN (again), CAM, BOOM, XHB (again), GGP, TRMB.

Also already in PETS (not going my way yet, but not breaking support quite yet either).

It was very interesting to watch the futures lead the way downhill today, now that I know where to see them on TOS.

Kim

Jeff,

Thanks for the watchlist. Glad to have it back.

Amy

I couldn't help myself. I jumped on CROX as it sits on double support. I needed something bullish to balance me out a little. Also liked NVDA but missed the entry.

Also snagged puts on HNT but I think that was premature as it has gone up since I bought in a couple hours ago. Oh well...I might be out of that one by day's end.

Tom D,
Never flew an Eagle, although I did build a radio control version when I was younger. Flew some very limited aerobatics oh.... about 25 years ago. And it was on purpose, too! Sorry to hear about your dilemma. Go cry on someone else's shoulder... I've been getting killed the last few days. Thank goodness I'm scaled 'way back or I'd be looking for a sharp stick to poke my eyes out with. I would have gotten out of BRC as soon as it pulled back from that massive spike. This market is just too volatile for me to stay in any winning trade for very long.

Kim it's a great day to buy, if you're in the market. Quite frankly I'm getting all funned out. I've got a bunch of options that I've picked up "On Sale" and they're even on saler now. Who ever said that your stocks are not the market is a liar, a cheat, ugly, and probably a rotten driver, too. Oh wait... that was me. Well it's lies, I tell you. Lies, lies, and more damn lies.

I wish I was going to Chicago. I need a shoulder to cry on (One that I can reach, Jeff.) Time to ramp up my education. I think I'm getting stale.

DG,
Beware.... CROX have teeth!! I got into them a week ago (prematurely obviously) and they've bitten me. I saw a two year old get off the airplane last night and he had a pair of them on. I wanted to jump the little *&$#@ and throw them in the engine while it was still running. The good news? My shoulder angel won out and he is still in posession of the green buggers. Volatility is really messing with this stock. As we speak I see it's up a nickle. Woop dee doo.

Disclaimer. I may at any time turn bullish on life again. This disgruntlement should not be construed as a true testamonial to my life, in general. If I were Cramer, I'd hit something.

Catherine has finished enough tuna sandwiches for the opening salvo in the War of the North Pole. And she'll be wearing CROX. Let all comers beware.

What are people thinking about the market overall? I am pissed at myself again as I sold my puts on the S&P at a loss as it seemed the market was just trading in a range, but obviously I should have been patient and I would have had a nice gain.

But it seems like we will finish below 13200(who knows though) and below 1450, instead of the individual plays, would it be better to buy puts on DIA and SPY or go for some of the more individual plays that could have more moves? If the whole market is likely going to be downtrending still seems like a safer play, but less movement.

Thoughts from other addicts?

thanks

Ben

DG,

I bought some puts on HNT earlier too. While I don't like the fact that it broke my diagonal trend line, it seems to be hitting resistance at about 52.75ish so I am going to see if that holds.

CROX an excellent entry DJ...

Especially since it is showing so much strength today....

Chris,
CROX bit me in the butt, too. I ahve to give a litte disclaimer though. I have the flip-flops because they are great for people who suffer from plantar fasciitis, like me.

I have a love/hate relationship with them. My mom and dad made a nice profit on CROX earlier in the summer.

DG
Another thing I am looking at is the declining volume over the last four days while this thing has run up. Today's is really weak. Maybe this thing is running out of steam. Then again in this market, who knows????

RTI, keep an eye on this. It has very little support after 68.75.

SPX is really doing battle with the 1430 area on the daily chart. It breaks below that will bring a wave of more selling.

Ben, I use the SDS (2x short the SPX). Easier to trade than SPX options.

Jeff, thanks for the watch list.

Brett, chilling dialogue on the Phoenix...I liked it.

Jamie

Hello OA's,

ARTY is down. Needs a little encouragement. I have taken big hits 4 days in a row.

I should have just stopped trading for the year last Thursday.

I think I will have closed out of everything damaging right before todays close.

ART

Bob,

Here are the links to your cabinets...

Cabinet photo 1
Cabinet photo 2

Bob,

Back to:

Arty, saw your reply post last night but too tired to reply.

Bob the "so simple" line was a quote out of Fletch.

I was trying to be funny.

Looks like my timing on humor is like my timing on short vs. long

Cheers,
ARTY

Bob,

Wow they're beautiful. Those doors.. I bet they were fun gluing up;)

Dan

Tonya, I don't think GS will go to zero, but i don't see any support until the $150-ish area. Sure do hope it keeps going down.

Kim, I looked at PETS Yesterday. Love the volume drying up as it comes down. I will be jumping in at close with some Calls if it stays where it is. A good up day tomorrow and it will perform.

Jeff, Thanks for the list. For all of the people that don't do their own work on the stock. How could you possibly know what you have at risk, if you don't know where you will get out?

Bob, The TOS analyze tool is all I use to figure what I have at risk. Both when I enter a trade and also once a week I go through all my positions and look at total Portfolio risk. I am trying to make sure no matter what happens I am here to play tomorrow. If I can manage my overall exposure and have a good Risk/Reward on all of my plays the profits seem to be an after thought.

Take PETS and put it in the Analyze tap on TOS for example. High IV so if you go ITM with DEC 50 Calls you can get them for $4.80. If you draw a line in the sand of $14.00 for the underlying and put your time value out to 14th of SEPT your total risk would be about $0.45 a contract. If the stock pops and goes back to $15.65 the profit would be $1.09 a contract on 14th of next month. Above my 2/1 R/R rule. If either happens before Friday this week the #'s are a loss of $0.32 or a gain of $1.20 for a R/R of 4/1.

Hope this helps. The guys at TOS are alot better than me at explaining it, but this gave me something to do rather than look at my positions and want to trade.

Chris, Sorry bout that, Love you man ! ! CROX has gotten a piece of me also, not as bad as VIP though. Everyone winns on VIP but me earlier in the year. My timing sucked bad on that stock. The world is a beautiful place when you are pulling g's in the Eagle.

Tom D (Flying-Pro)

ARTY,
Group hug.....
Welcome to the OA support group. We shall all be pissed off together. We will drink copious quantities of lager (Yeungling, Corona, and Flaming Shooters are on tap) and sing songs about villages in the Austrian Mountains. We'll make a movie about it and call it The Sound of F#$@*& Music.

Raimo, a pox on your sarcastic remark about CROX. It's up $0.45 right now. It will be the Phoenix of Feet. Just you watch.

Arty
It sounds like this week for you is like last week for me. We all will go through it at some point. You can re-group though - start trading smaller position sizes, don't over trade (maybe even take a day or two off) and get back on that bicycle!

Arty,

Keep your chin up kid. I paired back last week, took profits, and went to a lot of cash. Plus I knew I'd be away for a few days in a crazy market.

Let the dust settle this week, come back next week, and make all your entrys at your exists..play support and resistance trades only...

Also, for me, right now I am taking it slow in this market. We have come down so hard so fast, I need to let the dust settle. are we going to rally? don't know. If we are going to be bearish now, I want to see a run up, test resistance, then turn loser. So I am very selective on my trades.

Bob, beautiful cabinets, that must have taken forever.

-----

Could there be a little short covering rally to finish the day off?

Joel R.

C2,

I see your POX
And raise you one CROX
Get with the beat
Get some CROX on your feet.

I meant turn LOWER, not LOSER

Chris and Scoot

Thx I need it,

Chris awesome. I will move out of my positions as the rules dictate. Hopefully some of my put positions, besides MSTR will catch up.

Cheers,
ARTY

Raimo, but we tested 1500 on the S&P a couple days ago and now you can see where it is. So, we kind of tested there which used to be support.

I think if we get good inflation data tomorrow we see a rally but probably down overall so hopefully some stocks will go back up and test resistance on the watch list so I can get a better entry point, feel like I missed a lot of the moves already.

Looks like we may test 13000...look out! haha.

Ben

Wow! If I thought GRMN was on sale when it was down $4, it's on clearance now! Ouch!

Tried to catch ICE as it's breaking the H&S but set my entry in too low and now it's down another $1.50. Hmmmm, what to do..what to do...

Bob-I know my husband is admiring those cabinets! Your father would be very proud.

Kim

I never traded CROX before because frankly I just can't get on board with plastic shoes having any kind of staying power. But in searching for a bullish play today it stood out.

HNT - I have the same line drawn which is seems to sitting at. I noticed that declining volume which is part of what let me take the trade.

DG,
I have had two trips to the dance with Crox that were awesome and I own a pair. And I am not your rubber shoe kind of guy.

Now I had four trips to the dance with GRMN before it slapped the shit out of me today.

Cheers,
ARTY

Oh and by the way addicts, make no mistake about it, I still love trading, the markets, Jeff, my investools classes, and all of you who make up this Blog.

I am down for a few but I am not out!

Cheers,
ARTY

DG,

Looks like CROX was an excellent choice. It keeps going up on the day.

Arty, Sorry to hear your have had a bad run this week.

I'm staying out of trouble by holding cash but have been so tempted to jump in. I sure don't want to be holding anything during the conference.

Bob, The cabinets you made for your mom are so professional looking. She must be very proud of them. Please tell me how you did the parquet. I'd love to have such beautiful cabinets. I have a husband who has the tools and the talent but no time for anything on the side except his IT education. Sigh...

--Patti

Bob Raimo,
Look at VCP today. Witht he volume and the break through the neckline, wouldn't that be a head and shoulders (good volume)?

Michelle

Bob, Nice cabinets!!

I'm staying in HNT as it is currently just dropped to under my line in the sand.

Ben,

Of course I see we tested 1500, and ran down hard from it. Before I get loaded up short, I will wait for ANOTHER run up to resistance (and I am curious as to where that will be now??), and then take the ride back down..that is what I meant, sorry if I was not clear...

Also, we do not have a lower low down from the bounce off 1500....not yet...not with my crayon..but it may be coming....

I don't mind running with the bears....I'll go with the flow buddy!

Clean Cups!!! New Thread!!

Joel R.

Raimo,

Gotcha, yea I'd have to guess it would be previous support around 1450, I can't see it somehow getting back up to 1490 unless there was a rate cut and even then it could be temporary until they clear up the credit worries, but who knows, I do know that the path of least resistance seems to be down for now.

Ben

Arty,
Not sure what is harder. Getting out of plays and then watching them rise witout you, Or feeling so beaten up that you see set-ups and won't/can't take them out of fear. As traders we all have been there. In late April I wrote in big letters in the office of the house "TRADING IS NOT A GAME FOR ENJOYMENT. IT IS TIME TO MAKE MONEY."
After I did that I looked at each trade harder. Like Raimo has said I started taking new positions at their exit point (right at support or right at resistance). What I found out was 1.) it was much harder to find the stocks. 2.) More stocks either didn't get filled where I wanted them or I missed the bloody trade and watched the price action due what I thought it would do. 3.) if I didn't get filled or I missed the trade I was still better off that having a bad entry and getting whipped out of the trade and losing more money than i should have.
Hang in there, I will need all of the support I can get after having 4 Sh$^^@y days like you have. Easy to think man took a month to make it and 3 hours to lose it.......


Tom D (Flying-pro)

Arty, I have kept my trading way down. I know there are sooo many things to short right now. I want to be very focused on what I am in, long or short, and not get distracted with all the noise in the market. Keep your head up, and some dollars in your account. You'll be OK.

Anybody like a long trade in UPS. I drew a Symm triangle using the high on 7/5/06 and the low on 8/10/06. It broke out 7/13/07 and is now re-testing diagnal support. Not a big mover so options are reasonable given the market conditions.

Kim, I don't see ICE braking the H&S yet. Tomorrow probably yes.

RTI could look like a slip and slide tomorrow.

A new closing low on the S&P 500 since the July highs....hmmmm

Jamie

beautiful work Bob,,your dad would no doubt be very proud

sue

Hi everyone, I have a very interesting suggestion for you. It's about the 07' august calls of TYCO (NYSE: TYC) which are very very mispriced: the title is at about 43.50$ and 30 call is at 0.15$, call 35 at 0.10$ and almost all others are mispriced. I don't have much money to buy them, but I think it's a great deal... Source:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TYC
C.-S. Huot, Quebec city, Canada

Last night on Investools (first page that comes) there was a piece with Tom Sosnoff (?) talking about volitility. I couldn't watch the entire piece and went back to investools and can not find it again. Does anyone know where they hide it now?

I only hold one position COP and frequently looking for hurricanes. The rest in cash, to waiting for a few H&S breakdowns and will look at jumping in. Best of luck

Christine

Arty,

I've been there, buddy. The best thing you can do right now is get rid of the worst trades (the breakouts that failed, the bounces that didn't bounce) and keep only the stuff that's working. Make sure you're diversified so that you make money on up and down days. Pare back, keep only the best trades and TAKE only the best trades. Ask yourself, "If I only had enough money for one trade, would I take THIS one?" If you find more than one of these, that's a bonus.

By cleaning out your portfolio, you'll make those losses real, but you'll set yourself up for a new day. Nothing is better than waking up to a portfolio of positions you're happy about. Plus, your odds of seeing your account rise are much better.

Think of your account as a garden. Right now, you walk into it, you're disgusted by it, confused at how it got to look this way. Yank out the weeds and only plant the best looking seeds. It will take a few days, but you'll see results quickly.

But don't stop there. Take all those garbage trades and see where you went wrong. Don't just blame the market taking down good trades. Did you have too many stocks in one sector? Did you not wait until the end of the day on a breakout? Did you not wait for the bounce to confirm? Did you not properly price your options.

LEARN from this. Trust me, it may seem dark right now, but I was pretty bummed 2 weeks ago, but i went through that process and last week MORE than made up for it. And I became a sharper trader for it.

Keep your head up, buddy. But you need to learn what you did wrong. It's the best use of that money you lost.