Wednesday

I established a position of index puts at the open and so far that has treated me pretty well. If you missed some of the monster breakouts yesterday, you are being offered a second chance today. The market gods have allowed these stocks to pull back to reasonable prices and points on the chart that make risk management that much easier to perform.

Pending home sales dropped 12% in July! Of course, that means it's probably time to take XHB out for another spin...
Keep an eye on FXY. $86 has held strong and we are seeing a nice rally from these lows. This of course is bad for the market.
Later today AAPL should make the decision on whether or not it wants to start working towards $200. A new iPod is scheduled to be released.
Interesting side note: I read that iPhones are now being sold in China. Good news? Customers are paying as much as $8800 Yuan ($1170 USD) and the phone doesn't work. It can make outbound calls and send text messages, but will not receive calls and voicemail doesn't work on them either. What a deal!

I missed a couple trades today. Sometimes my trading rules really piss me off. OSIS down 10% and I knew it was coming. Oh well, I'll make that money back on the upcoming COST trade, when it closes below $58.

I also like the SHLD trade someone mentioned yesterday. What a beautiful move it has made today. Kind of similar to monster move found in GES (-8%). GES what? I talked about this on the marketcast last night as a great opportunity to pick up some calls when it breaks out. What this really means is that hundreds of people already own them and are going to come to my office with torches, pitchforks, and rocks to pay their respects. GES I will have to go into hiding today.

Recommendation: Speaking of hiding, where in the hell is the records room?

Long: Strong Stocks

Short: Weak Stocks

Disclaimer: GES what? I don't own any GES.

Jeff,

You mentioned index puts. I thought you hated these because they are so expensive. Are these day trades or longer? did you go w/ the index or the ETF's? Sorry all the questions,but you sparked my interest, since I love day trading indexes.

BTW, thanks for OII. I owe you a beer. Ever had green chili beer. sounds awful.but taste gooood!

Classic movie! Nice.

Mark/Sacramento

Sarah,

Yes, index puts. The Russell to be specific. I went with them since the spread was reasonable. I am also short the NQ as of this morning, but tech performs worse on the dips than the broader market. Which means there isn't a good reason that I am in this trade.

Should I sell?

PS- Chili beer? I think I just threw up in my mouth. Must be a "New Mexico" thing.

PSS- Brett, I owe you that futures post, which I will try to get done soon. I know you're life isn't depending on it, but I will come through soon.

Ha. I knew I'd get a reaction from you. I'll bring some to you on my next trip to your area. You have to open to new things.

OK, so I arrive in Newfoundland and Sarah's talking about chili beer. Chili... chilly... chilled... doesn't matter. Beer's beer. Bring it on. I think I'll head to my favourite micro brewery... Quiddi Viddi.

Haven't even had time to check the markets yet.

I'll be back.

Option Addicts - Thanks for the GRMN to $120 BOT a few days back.

Also I have the ATI Sept $100 Puts. I see this possibly going down to $90 as support - any one see the same or different ?

Thanks,
David in NH

David,
I like ATI and it's right at REE.

EXM continues to do well on 100% above normal volume today. DRYS is being sucked along in it's wake, too.

I am such a doofus. I can't remember any of the stuff I wanted to comment on from the last strand, and my eyeballs keep falling out of my head. Too many 3:00 AM days in a row. I'm going to go soundly thrash my First Officer in squash, then come back and git me some bull meat. I'm up to three calls and three puts. Getting bold in my old age.

I am looking at BBY for an entry on a close below 42.90.

Anybody like that trade ?

Jamie

Upon arriving at work after dropping my daughter off at her second day of kindergarten, I realized that FRX SUCKS!!!!!!!!

I entered on 7/17 and sold 2/3’s of my position on 8/9 for a hefty 300% profit! Since I had Nov puts, I decided to let the remaining 1/3 run. Poised to fall off a cliff again, it chose the rocket ship ride instead! I guess breakeven is better than losing money. However, a protective stop on something that had such a large gain would have preserved a little profit. Protective stops seem to hurt me more than they help. For me staying diversified with the proper position size has always been an easier formula to manage.

I may need a little refresher course...

AZO, KSS, from last weeks watch list. Know about 'em

VMC also on the list and getting closer to an entry

Jamie

David from NH,
ATI *could* go to 90 though the recent higher low & high are keeping me out of the trade. But I don't know if 2 weeks is enough time for that move. You might want to roll it to the next month if you are that bearish on the stock.

I said I'd be back with some bearish plays but I didn't find anything that compelling that wasn't already listed within the blog or the watchlists. NVR looked good but it's non optionable and really super pricey. Oh, and IWS looked good but there's not much open interest.

liz

CVH, not going down, not going up. I took this trade last week. It seems to be holding it's own in today's market pullback. I wonder if it will use the 30 day MA as support. Thoughts, anyone?

Jeff thanks for the updates of what to watch for and thanks for the Fletch clip. I love that movie.

"Yeah, Utah. It's wedged in between Wyoming and Nevada. You've seen pictures."

liz

Amy-
CVH has pretty strong resistance/support around 57.50. It might use the 30 day MA but I think it may head back down to 55. There's strong support/resistance right there as well. And volume has been getting weaker. I don't know if this helps but maybe it will help you look at it differently and then make a decision from there.

liz

I guess they did not like the new IPOD

I MISSED the clean cups! Or lack there of, lol.

Anyways, I blame Brett.

Michelle, I left you a few post on the last thread regarding your questions regarding CME and PCU...

As for CVH..I too am short on it, so it will fall...just have some patience. I'll post when, uh, IF I bail on this myself...but I will hold till it closes above $58.

Also, and this is just a FYI..the only thing I look at on my charts is price and volume. I do not use MA's...maybe I should.....

Raimo,

Price and volume is something I am still trying to trust myself with.

Thanks, I too will wait for CVH (up or down).

Amy

Amy,

Simple. In your saved studies create a chart that only has price (I use candlesticks) and volume, and add a moving average to the volume.

That is all I use. Draw in your own trendlines.

Now, can you trade off that?? Do you see things more, or less, clearly?? I'd like to know.

Hey addicts ant thoughts on ICE if it breaks $141.00 ish

Thanks

thats perfect Raimo... and thats all i use...

Raimo,
I use a study just like that, but then I start looking at other... "junk". It tends to keep me out of a lot of trades. It is more about trusting what I see and reacting to it.
Amy

Anybody know what's up with AAPL?
Didn'tsee any news. It's taking a beating today.

Michelle

How great is it that the Chief of Police in Fletch is running for President???

AAPL- I guess the new phone didn't do so well...

BTU- symmetrical triangle, at resistance, anticipatory trade...

Now if he could get Walter Sobchak from Big Lebowski as his running mate we'd be set!

"YOU'RE OUT OF YOUR ELEMENT, AL QAIDA!!"

CNBC's amazing. They didn't even show the full line of iPods.

Check it out (especially the iPod TOUCH).

They hit a home run here...

http://www.apple.com/

I vote for Horseshack..

Apple is dropping the price of the IPhone by $200 bucks ... That's why the stock got hit ... Scares the street but that's what the street has been complaining about that Apple wouldn't move enough IPhones because of price .. Go figure!

Some nice buying at these prices on AAPL ...

Brett, Yeah, his campaign slogan could be,"You want a toe? I can get you a toe, believe me. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it, believe me."

Michelle:
On apple they lowered the price on the Iphone from $599 to $399. I wonder how they are going to keep all the loyal customers that bought at $599 happy.

I bought at $599 and i'm damn happy.

Thanks, David and Benton. Wondering if it was time to get out or add to.

Michelle

Hey Brett and Jeff,
Speaking of i-phones, I played with one when we were in Portland and it seems really, really neat. Are you still enjoying yours after a month of using it? If they ever learn how to cover them in fur will we get them up here in Canada?

I am in aapl and today's move just might bring it close to REE :-)

Anybody still in CNX. I saw a sym trian with about 8pt potential upside. I will hold with a close above 40.91.

Advice welcome.

Brian K

Logan,
I hope you held on to FRX until day's end. It's pulled back substantially during the day. It still sucks, only a little less than it used to. But it could still suck the chrome off a trailer hitch. There was no calling that one. It looked like it was right at REE.

Brett,
You kiddin me Ole JD Baker? No wonder the market is down. Do you think Mrs. Chief of Police will help him decorate the white house.

Cheers,
ARTY

Liz,
If you're still looking for bearish trades, check out ABC. Nice downtrend (just ignore that one intraday spike on earnings day)Still pretty close to REE and the puts are cheeeeep.

OA's This blog is moving faster than the DOW bouncing off of 13250 again.

That being said there is some great dialog at the end of the last post......that is after that wise crack about lamb chops.

Cheers,
ARTY

VIP - sitting right at diagonal support from the trendline started last July. Earnings confirmed a double bottom.Has held the gap from the earnings announcement.

Just had a stock split so options are pretty cheap. Looks pretty good to me...

Jodi

BIBB is pulling back and is setting up for a nice bounce. Now this is slightly premature but I am all jacked up on cold medicine and Fletch quotes.

Kind of like the market right now.

Cheers,
ARTY

Jodi,

All I can say, I Like the chart and the set up, pure as cane suger. However the Implied Volatility seems relatively high. I am no expert here so some option pricing gurus can you please expound?

Cheers,
ARTY

I may go buy an i-phone just so I know I got a better price than Brett....

And you cna keep the last lamb chop too...

Hey, Lamb chop..

I am getting an iphone at a better price...LOL..

Liz,
Nice work jumping in on the fletch. Also the 3 day was awesome thanks for the tips! Also I think T Bone is going to become more than a lurker on the Blog after that class. She is rolling in the other room with multiple high speed lap tops routing GRMN and EXM it is hilarious. I am going to say she has had a bit of an epiphany.

Cheers,
ARTY

IVGN trying to break out.

DG-
Ooooh. I like ABC. I looked at it the other day and I wasn't so sure but I like the set up today. You mentioned this one a couple days ago right? I totally forgot about it. Thanks!!!

liz

Nice call Scoot!

Raimo,
This is got me on the floor laughing. When I was in the restaurant business my cooks called me "Pork Chop". Now I can roll with Lamb Chop on the blog. I am sure it will not be long before you sporting your new "pet Name".

Cheers,
ARTY

I love my iPhone like my own children.

In fact, I added some Apple today on the retest of the inverse h&s continuation pattern.

(jeff i know i emailed you on this one, but I'm going it alone)

Brett,
I liked the retest too. I added.
I know there are others that see this as opposite, but.....

Michelle

I am there with you Brett. I did not add since I am too much bullish in this market but i am staying with my aapl.

And from the profits of this trade I will buy my self a cheaper ( and even more popular) iphone :-)

And I know Raimo disagrees with me on CVD, but I added today on that one, too. It looks like a great point to enter or add.

Michelle

DAKT up another $1 in a down market today, VSEA down but held above support at $56.80 if anyone looked at those that I mentioned. VSEA at good entry again.

James H.

GRMN appears like its finally gonna hold for us.

James H.

Brett

Can you share what your target would be for apple after adding to your position.

Raimo,
I am not giving in yet on the bearish stance HOWEVER, this could be a higher low on the indexes today.

Cheers,
ARTY

Wahly,

about $155 or $160, but who knows? I could get kicked out tomorrow.

Wahly, the H&S pattern has a target of 155 and if it breaks above 150 we have a new target based on the move from 112 - 150 which would be 188

lets see what happens

I just wanted to say that Raimo, when you originally stated your REE, that brought so much clarity to me. I had the concept before, but always had to struggle to make myself see it. When you put it in those terms, for me, it was a huge turning point. I really feel confident in my entry point and exit point. Not only that, typically by the time the day ends when I have just opened a trade, my numbers in my account are usually black or green (even if only by $5) as opposed to red. I am making much better entries now, and you deserve much credit for that. Thanks so much! :o)

Jodi

Anyone have a take on the 1 year pattern on CROCS? Since the gap up?

Is that a Blue Phoenix?

Brett & Mahmoond

Thanks for your opinions as it is valuble to see from a few different sets of eyes. I took the trade and am right between you both at $170ish. I agree with ya Brett, could get kicked out tomorrow, well see. I'll watch the bottom & the top side now.

Thanks again

I am only on here for 3 days now... will I make you guys upset if I asked to re-explain what the REE is? Someone did yesterday but I still didn't quiet get it. :-/

Arty...


Pork and lamb...two pees in a pod, LOL..I already have a nick name here..Rambo..and I have a strange feeling that i prefer that over what you may be planning..

Michelle,

I don't disagree with you adding to CVD at all. It is just not at a REE, and for those that are not familiar with how I make those entrys, I simply wanted them to have a clear understanding of it.(REE for me would be an entry around 72.50, not 74)...that by no means makes it a bad trade...it is a sym triangle breakout..and this should get you to 77.50...(along with me too)

Look at it this way. You got in today at 74ish. At what price will you exit if the trade goes bad? That is the REE price...

Steven,someone else will do a better job on REE than I will.

Are there any GLD experts out there? Eric mentioned it as a long buy last night but from the technicals I do not see it and have no idea how to target something like this for risk/reward.

Probably clear as day and I am just not seeing it and I don't even have Chris' problem with keeping my eyes in my head.

Bob, I'll bite....

GLD....a $13 target...based on a 5 year chart... long term triangle...1 year time frame for the target.......

??????????

Anyone else??

Raimo,

so that I understand correctly. on ACH approx 65.5 would be a REE?

Just looking at some charts. Is that BIDU breaking out of an Inverted H&S with volume ?

Jamie

Bob, on Gold, from what I can gather, Eric appears to be less of a technical trader. His comment last night was simply "buy it". He said nothing about a stop or a target or anything. He did say to position size, but otherwise, my take was just buy it and let it go until he tells us otherwise.

I decided to follow him today and took a small position in my IRA. I do have an exit point but it is very low and I am sized accordingly. It is very different than my normal approach but hey, the guy has been right a lot and I'd like to learn more about his method so I thought I would trade along.

Mahmood,

I know you directed your comment to Bob, my apologies if I am stepping on toes. Would you exit the trade if it dropped below 65.5? Probably not since it already is below that.

Your REE is where you would exit the trade if it went below. Your line in the sand per se.

You want to enter the trade as close to that number as posible.

Bob-
I concur with Raimo as far as target for longer term. Well, I had a $14 price target but hey...

And to add to what Tim said, Eric talked about adding 3 to 5% of precious metals to your account.

liz

Bob, I've looked at technicals and I can't make sense out of them. However, I also use another form of charts called Point and Figure charts. Not sure if anybody else uses them, but I am a big fan of them.

On P&F charts there is diagnal support starting at 56 and horizontal support at 64. The chart is fairly bullish but needs a breakout at 69 to confirm a price target of 85. Disclosure: I am long a small position in GLD.

Jamie

Steven-
Since this is Raimo's term he explains it better but I'll try. REE stands for Raimo Entry/Exit. It's about taking a trade right where you'd get out if it went the wrong way. A lot of us thought we understood this concept and Jeff has talked about it numerous times but for a lot of us it really seemed to stick after Raimo coined the term. Go through the blog today and look at a lot of the examples that people have been talking about today and I think you'll have a pretty good idea what that means.

Here's an example from me:

ATI-It's sitting at trendline support. It also happens to be sitting at horizontal support. (Which is always a bonus!) Anyway, I would get in right here at the support/resistance lines with the understanding that if it crosses above REE I'm out. It keeps losses small and may very well mean that if it crosses those lines the stock isn't going to do what I wanted it to do. I hope that makes sense. I know it was a little wordy.

liz

jodi,

not a problem, we are here to discuss and learn.

I have a pennant drawn on ACH. The support line is where it bounced from today. I want at least a higher high tomorrow before I take the position, my exit would be at 63.5 ( i-e a close below the support line of the pennant.

Raimo, is this how you see it or I need to re-read the REE explanation. I would assume you would look for some confirmation that it is bouncing up before you take the trade. unless since you are at the stop you are ok getting whipped out

Bob-
GLD also had a break out of a smaller triangle 3 trading days ago. There will be some overhead resistance in a few places but you'll be in this longer term.

liz

Jamie, tell me more about these point and figure charts you speak of. I have heard of them, but never used them. Where can one access them?

Mahmood,

Aahh I see, you asked if 65.5 was the REE for it, 63.50 would actually be your REE if that's where you would get out - it's also where you should try to get in.
Minimal risk that way.

If you are basing it on REE that is. Flag patterns are different though. You should get in them when they break out of the pattern, then THAT would be your REE.
I'm certainly not the teacher in here, so I'll butt out now, before I make this super confusing.

Jodi

Raimo,
72.50ish.

Michelle

Jodi,
Ahhhhhh yes, grasshoppa. I think you have it. I think REE should be trademarked.

Liz, baby. Are you enjoying the ride on EXM? Oh... sorry.... Grant baby, you too. It'll have to be a Harley with a sidecart for the three of us. Go baby go!!

Anyone looking for a Bear with a REE (I can't help but picture a Bear on a roller coaster yelling REEEEEEEE!!!!!!) have a look at CAT. I got in two days ago... it turned out to be a bit early but it's right at it's REE now.

No wait....

NOW.

Also, as liz mentioned ATI bounced right of a hundred bucks, it's 30 day MA and diagonal support. A Three 'fer!!! I got in today and am already up fourty bucks!!! Should I sell?

Also...
Why is everyone talking about a target of 13 or 14 for GLD when it's at 67 right now? I've obviously picked the wrong day to stop smoking POT. Which is up 10% this past week (the stock, that is.)

chris,

I am not seeing which pattern you are looking at for the REE in CAT

Please point it out. Sorry for being so demanding.

This interactive learning is very unique and empowering.

mahmood,
Draw a line from the peak on July 20th to the peak on Aug 11th, to the peak yesterday. That's a nice diagonal support. 77.50 has been strong support/resistance from Jun to now (can we call it "Chris' Support Index? (or CSI for short) Huh, huh? Please oh Pullleeeezzzeee?). And then for good measure it just bumped off it's 30 day moving average (even though some rattler killers don't bother with them... I still love it when they all come together.) Remeber too, mahmood, to draw your lines with a crayon, not a razor blade. It's safer.

The neckline of the head and shoulders is the entry/exit point.

Isn't it always nice when the "big Kahuna" comes and says things with a "KISS" (keep it simple stupid)?

If I could only learn not to over analyze so much....

Chris-
I am enjoying the EXM ride. I don't know if Harleys look as cool with a side cart though. We can take two bikes...

We must have gotten into ATI at the same time. I'm up 40 bucks as well. I think we should sell!

Everybody's talking about precious metals to help diversify portfolios because our legal tender is only money because the government says it is. And even though there are people willing to trade stuff for POT, GLD is excepted everywhere.

POT is one of my favorite stocks. I'm not in it at the moment though. It keeps hitting it's head around 90. I'm waiting to see what it does next.

liz

Jodi-
We'd all be better at probably everything if we didn't over analyze everything.

liz

In the interest of being a man of the 21st century... and sharing... just thought I'd pass on that right now I have about 18% invested, 82% cash. Today I was up 10% on our invested money and am up 20% since I got back into the market last week. Net on the account it's only 4% but it's HUGE for me, because I was getting so frustrated that everything seemed to be going against me no matter what I did. And this is all thanks to this group. The pounding in of entering only at the REE... the constant barrage of ideas that made me realize that there's stuff out there that's having way more fun than that last lamb chop... doing it's own thing regardless of the market.

Do your homework. Look, look, look, and then look a little more. They're out there and they want you to buy them.

Thanks again, everyone. And thanks especially to Jeff. Without this group I have no idea what short peer I would have thrown my lap top off of.

OMG Jeff!!!!
That's brilliant!!!! I hadn't even noticed that CAT was a H&S and it bounced off it's neckline yesterday. Oh this is sooooooo cool!!! It's a four 'fer.

So Jeff,

If we adhere to the K.I.S.S. theory and, as you stated, the entry/exit point on a head and shoulders is the neckline...will we all have hickeys once we enter the trade????

Hey, Chris can't be the only warped one on the blog!!


Sorry Chris.

hahahaha! Funny Sean, very funny...

Hence my confusion. I had the H&S drawn and waiting for the close below the short uptrend retest of the neckline i-e below 74.6 to enter this.

I am still trying to get a handle on REE.

Jeff, the candles on 7/26 - 7/30 can be ingored? (as someone would say BGO - blazing glimpse of the obvious)

Sean
OK, I'm pissed I didn't think of that. I guess it's because those days are so far behind me that I forgot what a hickey was. Nice one.

liz, POT is a caged tiger. The industry is phenominal, the company's phenominal, it's been treading water while the market's taken a beating. It is coiled and loaded with Monster Java. As soon as it breaks the seal at 90 it'll explode! It'll make Mt St. Helens look like an ant fart. Well... that may be a bit extreme, but I think you get my drift. Because I'm into the stock, my timeline is different. I don't mind riding out this pause. That way I'll get every juicy mouthful when it pops.

Aww geeze. I can't get that lamb chop out of my head. But Arty and T-Bone doing the lovin' thing is just wrong. Way, way, way too much info, Arty.

Way too much.

Oh Arty,
If you're listening. Those weenie beer steins in the pictures... what's with that? I'll have to send a picture to Jeff when I get home of a REAL stein.

Mahmood,

Don't ignore them, but don't study them so much that you miss the bigger picture.

You probably won't connect every single dot here, but my trendline I have drawn connect yesterdays action, but misses the close on the 27th by about Fitty cent.

"Im a bear for detail."- I.M Fletch

Jamie-

BIDU, Inverse Head & Shoulders come on down trends so the pattern is not applicable in this case.

Hope this helps. Kim

Kim,

Nice work!

The big debate is how reliable the inverse head and shoulders pattern is as a continuation pattern.

(page 153 in Technical Analysis of Financial Markets)

The majority of pattern traders don't give this pattern as much credit, neither do I.

I think the bigger issue is calling BIDU a head & shoudlers. I think there is a head and shoulder, but shoudler's', I don't see.

Aw, Jeff...now I'm blushing. I feel like Horshack, "Ooh, Ooh Mr. Kohler, Mr. Kohler!!"

BIDU- how does anyone feel about calling it a breakout yesterday or today with volume behind it?

Now I've stuck my neck out there...

Kim

I have your back on that one.

That's how I saw it too.

Kim,
You beat me to it. I was just going to say... I have some fibs drawn from away back that have a 261% line at $210 which just happens to have been strong resistance over the past two months. Yesterday broke out on big volume and today confirmed it. Now it's off to grandmother's house we go.

I ask a question, I get all these wonderful answers AND I CAN'T GET IN TO READ THEM. For sometime now I keep getting this Goggle error to try back in 30 seconds. FINALLY, I am back! I know you were all thinking, how rude he asks a question we all reply and he bails for the night. Honest I was a tryin' to get in.

Tim, you pretty much nailed me too. But like Chris have been so burned that I want to see it with my own eyes before I belly up to the bar and play my hard earned cash. I even told Pam, that Eric is sure right a lot and I would like to ride this one skyward toward success like Chris and Liz are doing (with me in spirit) on EXM. Hey, I can't think of two people I would rather have making money on a trade I wanted to get into but didn't than you two (except maybe someone related to me that wanted to share).

Raimo, I will see if I see what you explained and thanks to all for the help. Tomorrow may be a GLD day for me, wish me success.

Hey, Arty you notice a trend here with T-bone, lamb chop...you hungry or something?

Jeff, thanks for the confirmation

Kim

Jamie, what is a P&F chart and where could I find them? I have never heard of them.

Raimo, I went out 5years and created some lines and actually came out with 13+ target myself. I just do not go out long enough on these charts as I keep thinking short term market.

Point and Figure charts....

These are the best charts for technical analysts. They take time out of the equation and analyze only price movements. Time frames are irrelevant.

Try stockcharts.com, but I wouldn't use them until you've studied pretty rigorously.

Jeff-
Just checked out stockcharts.com and I can understand why you said you wouldn't use them until you've studied rigorously... They are very different looking from what I'm use to looking at. At first glance it looks like a complicated game.

Thanks Jamie for bringing it up and Jeff for pointing in the right direction.

liz

Thanks, Jeff!

Hey Jeff, I have just been reading up on P&F and it is quite interesting. I can see how they would be helpful for identifying support and resistance especially. And, Jamie I see what you were saying about trendlines on GLD.

One question, what I read says traditionally P&F charts use high/low and ignore closing prices. Do you use them that way?

Jamie perhaps you could answer that as well.

Jeff,
Great stuff that P&F chart. Never heard of them before and just spent some time running some stock symbols through the stockcharts.com p&f charts. How reliable are those price objectives that they post next to the charts? They're calling GRMN at 126 target, for example, and NVT price objective is 86! That's another 20 points away. (Hmmm...maybe I should have bought more time!) I understand how the charts are constructed but I don't get the trendlines they use.

Do you use these when deciding whether to take a trade?

I just keep missing the good stuff this week. Great dialogue you guys, and with Mr. Kohler nonetheless.



Michelle

I leave the blog for a little while and miss all the action, and the big Kahuna himself...dang..

Ah, hey, had open school night to meet the kids teachers, can't miss that...

Raimo,
I am with ya. House and school stuff are keeping me away from the computer lots these days.
How old are your kids?

Michelle

Just listened to the Market Cast.
Where can you check FXY before the market opens?

Michelle

Michelle this is nuts.

Now there is way too much blogging after hours too. jeeeesh. I can't keep up.

My son is 14, my daughter is 11, my wife says I am 3.....

For anyone else interested in Point and Figure Charting, there is also a chapter in Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (page 265) if you haven't got to it yet..

Mahmood,

ACH (which I am in along with LFC and PTR, love China)

anyway, ACH, tough one. If you count the gap, I have ACH as a flag, and todays closing price right at the bottm support line of the flag. Now, depending on your rules and how you trade...one could say that this is a REE entry...it is right at your exit if the trade goes against you...

For me, REE is simple. I enter a trade at my exit. Not close to my exit, but at my exit, when possible. Since I have the luxury of trading full time, it is easier to do then if I had limited access and time to manage my trades.

I am off to the mountains bear hunting till sunday, I will post next week a full detailed explanation of my entry at exit rule, hence REE....

Remember though, what works for me, may not work for you...but happy to share.

I just can't look at ACH the same after the frank and beans comment.

liz

Jeff, you are right on the P&F charts. Very different from how everybody is trading here on the blog with time frames and volume being irrelevant. Just price movement and the law of supply and demand.

The bull and bear debate on the blog rages on. P&F charts on all indicators I follow are saying there is a very high risk to reward ratio of being bullish. These charts are not timing indicators but rather measure risk to reward.
This important....everybody here is trading different time frames, P&F charts do not take this into consideration.

Karen, price targets tend to work out but in the context of the trend of the overall market. The price target is used to measure your Risk (stop) with the price objective (reward).

I do not want to introduce a new concept here on the blog. My performance has been mediocre at best. I see everyone improving so much with their systems. I am going to get there as well.

So here is what we can do. I have 1 or 2 books on P&F charts. My email is jamielongport@yahoo.com.
Tim, Bob you responded first. Email me and I'll send you the books. Anyone else interested I'll add you to the list. They are a quick read. When the books come back I'll forward them to the next person.

Jamie

Tim, you would have to have more of an understanding of how the charts are constructed before I could answer your question. It's in the book...then I could explain.

Remember it's a different perspective. If it helps, great.

Jamie

Jumped into GRMN at end of day and found it was the TOTW on the CAST, cool.

Tried to call IT coach to walk through trades at the last hour and after waiting on hold for 2/3 of the cast (15 minutes or so) I was hung up on! So I thought I would try to listen to the TOS chat room today and could not get it to work so contacted support for help and am still waiting for an answer. This is extremely rare and both on the same day just plain weird and frustrating. The old bandwidth was not in my favor today. Highlight of the day was I got to hear Jeff on the MT. My subscription ends in a couple of months though...

Michelle...

USD/JPY. This is the actual dollar/yen pair. It trades at all hours of the night.

Why Apple rules (part 2):

This has nothing to do with the stock, but I have been digging into the latest from Apple, and here's what's new today:

1) A new iPod Touch, new iPod classics and nanos

2) The Apple Wi-Fi store. This is going to be a new addition where you can purchase and download wirelessly to your ipod or iPhone. Then, when you get back to your computer, it will sync as if you bought from iTunes. Amazing stuff, and they'll just simply add a button to the phone via a software update.

3) Starbucks. If you're sitting in a starbucks having a white mocha (I prefer Caribou, but whatever) and a song comes on that you like, your iPod or iPhone has already detected the song and will ask you if you'd like to download it.

4) Ringtones. I have a duck quacking for Raimo right now (appropriate for the hunting aspect), but let's say I want to use "Insane in the Brain" by Cypress Hill (also appropriate). I can now finally use actual ringtones.

5) All you jerks that were patient and didn't rush out immediately (during, say, your July 4 vacation to Newport Beach with your very annoyed family, for example) and pay $599 for the iPhone 2 months ago...you can now get the 8 GB (the big one) for $399. And if you don't want the phone, get the 16 GB iPod Touch. It's got the calendar, web browser, wifi and awesome widescreen video iPod just like the iPhone.

And that being said, I'm going to bed. With my iPhone.

Shoot...forgot it was Wednesday night. I hope MT recorded.

Question for the people who stay home with their children and trade. My oldest, 4, is getting rid of his afternoon nap. I was able to trade during this time without distraction. Now I find it as chaotic as the morning (minus, my youngest, 2 1/2, still takes a nap). My first priority is spending time with my children, but now I don't know how to manage my time between trading and children. I have not been able to trade the last few days, only manage my current positions. I am wondering if ETF's are the way to go or making my time frame longer, which may be difficult in this market. Any advice would be appreciated.
Not whinin'...just looking for a way to make this work.

Amy,

I would love to help you out here, but clearly, after last week's conference call, where my kids and I were screaming at each other in everybody's ear so that I could hear Jeff (unbeknownst to me - all could hear us). I don't have any sound advice :o)

There were a tonne of people chatting in to Jeff that will attest to the fact that when I'm trading, I have no control!

I can tell you though, screaming at each other when everybody can hear you - is terribly embarassing! Nobody would believe me now, but it's not always like that once you get a routine.

Good Luck!

Jodi :o)

Jodi,
I was part of the conference call. As I typed then in the chat, I will say again......anyone who has kids understands!!
Our kids are our world..... sometimes they are just too aware of that fact.
Does that make any kind of sense? I hope so......and please do not worry about it

The following is an e-mail that Eric sent to me after I asked the same question to the Marketcast:

"Sue and Frank,

Here's a chart of the USD/JPY exchange rate you can follow:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDJPY

BUT....the USD/JPY is inverse of the FXY. So, if the USD/JPY goes up that's generally good for stocks. If the USD/JPY goes down, that's bad for stocks.

Eric"


Hope it helps.

Suse

Jodi-
As I typed in the conference call... It's happened to me as well. I thought I would forever die of embarrassment but over time the feeling has subsided!!! Now I check the phone 20 million times to make sure I'm muted.

liz ;-)

Amy-
I wish I had some sage advice to give. I have 3 boys all under the age of 7. One of them just started 1st grade so that makes it a little easier but I still have the 4 & 2 year old at home. Since I'm on the west coast their nap/rest time is after the market has closed. Sometimes I feel like I'm flying by the seat of my pants. I can't say it's a perfect system but I have a little routine and my children have a routine and there are days when it all seems to come together and other days where it all seems to fall apart. For me the most important thing is having an outline (an idea) of what I would like to accomplish that day. I set up my alerts and make sure I look at the market at the opening and at the close. And I peek throughout the day and I read the blog here and there. I'm getting really good at getting things done super fast. I can draw lines all over the place and figure out R/R in the blink of an eye. But because of that sometimes I miss other important stuff. I'm still learning and sometimes it's frustrating but I think it takes some trial and error to find what works right for you and your family. It's a balancing act that seems to change every day. I don't know if any of this helps but this is what I try to do every day.

liz

Chris, I did stay with my last contract in FRX. I do have time. It did close at my longer term trendline. Of course that was quite a bit higher than my mental stop to preserve my profits. I ended the day a little better than breakeven in the position.

Amy, my wife can sympathize with you on the four year old boy losing the nap... she cannot get a damn thing done in the old nap time of the day. Very frustrating sometimes. The young man is what we call "spirited". Meaning he is extremely animated and dramatic about things being done his way. Even the most mundane task done a slightly different way than “normal” can send him sideways. Liz is right on balance.

Its all ball bearings nowadays.

The futures are up...

what is the best way to chart US$/JPY in the TOS platform, either in the TOS charts or in the Prophet chrts. I have been looking at the FX tab but charting is very limited there.

what is the symbol for this?

Amy,
I have three boys, 10, 7 and three and a half and I homeschool them. It is a little easier for me because my brood is slightly older so they can be reasoned with, but it is still difficult. I struggle with guilt over being on the computer a large part of the day. They have gotten so used to Jeff's voice on trading rooms that they think he is a long lost uncle. The thing that I realized is this, I want my kids to have the best life possible and trading is the way that I am able to do that.

Sacrificing a small part now will enable me to do all that I want and more later on. It is a struggle, I know and I can so sympathize with you. Some days I can't even think about all that I have to do else I sit on the kitchen floor and eat whipped cream straight out of the can. That's never good because who has time for Weight Watchers? :-)

My best advice is try not to get frustrated, Rome wasn't built in a day, you will get there. What Liz said is so true, have an outline for your day. Post it up somewhere that the kids can see and everyday just explain to them that you are working, they will get it. Let them work at your feet. Drag a whole bunch of puzzles and books and toys over where you are and they might think that they are working with you. When they get older you can teach them. My older boys already look at charts and love stocks like Harley Davidson and Honda because of dirt bikes.

I wish that I had some pearls of wisdom but I don't. The good news is, we have tremendous support here and can ask any question and have it answered speedily. I sound like a suck-up but this blog has changed the shape of my trading day.

Best to you, Amy!


Jodi, I typed it in the chat, too, you are not alone! We have all been there, done that. I got lucky that day, my kids were out with my husband otherwise it would have been duct tape all around. :-)

Mahmood,

Open the "currency pairs" tab in prophetcharts. USD/JPY is the one you want.

brett,

i do not see the currencies pairs in prophetcharts. Are you talking about lefts tabs or top tabs

also are you talking prophet in TOS or prophet chart on it site

Thanks

Good Morning Option Addicts.

Does anyone see that BIDU is on a breakout on decent volume ?

Oct $220 Calls

David in NH

Thanks, Jeff and all for the link.

Amy, getting ready to shuttle kids to school. I'll try to post or e-mail later what I do, also, since I have kids about your age. Don't give up, you'll find what works.

Michelle

Mahmood,

Currency pairs is on the prophet charts along the left, under Patterns/Symbols.

thanks lisag

I had the toggle off under preffernces

Take a look at AAPL pre-market on the prophets chart, it moving already, over 1 million shares traded and has gain 1/2% back

Thanks, everyone, for your thoughts. We had a beautiful routine going up to a few weeks ago. My children both took naps during the last 2 1/2 hours of the trading day. It was BLISS! Now, it feels a little overwhelming. I am assuming, based on what you all said, that as soon as we get into our new routine, it can be wonderful again. I have never had to sacrifice much time with my children..they have always had all my attention. I would check the charts throughout the day, but save the intense analysis for their naps. I know once we come to the understanding that "mommy needs some time to work", it will be better. Someone mentioned using alerts and that could be helpful to me. I will also need to increase my time in the evening for a little more research. I guess the cure all is PATIENCE. Funny, that is an underlying theme to all my trading obstacles.

Amy

One more time on GLD. I planned to get in today or after listening to Eric on the CAST wait until a pull back. Wow, with the gap this morning looks like waiting is the game plan.

GRMN is treating me nice this morning and LEN too. I am still in the mostly cash mode and going for sure bets as I can.

My $0.02 on kids - they grow up and then they are quieter but have bigger issues than when younger like, she has my toy. My daughter was crushed this week due to the teacher (first real week) telling the whole class she did not finish her homework. There was a misunderstanding and this caused big drama, tears and the whole bit. Oh and then there is the boy-girl thing! He looked at me or she didn't look at me...but they are gone at school during trading hours.

I've said this before, but take a hard look at DECK for a great put play.

Head and shoulders top beginning to form with volume supporting. The right point of the neckline broke the long-term trendline and the retest is failing. The final shoulder is forming now. The reason i'd suggest getting in now is because the resistance of the shoulder is only $3 above current price. The neckline is at $80 ($13 away). This is a great aggressive play with a small risk/huge reward.

If this top does confirm, it could be one of the trades that makes your year. If not, you're out with a small loss.

Just an idea, nothing more.

Amy,
My schedule with the kids has changed yet again with one in kindergarten and one in half day preschool two days a week and one at home, but I have a couple of suggestions. I do all my analysis and setups at night after they are in bed. I even look up options and write it down if the stock starts moving like I want it to, all I have to do is pull the trigger. In the morning while my husband is helping with breakfast, I check the blog, open up my account stuff and get Investools up and running and check my notes one last time. After the market opens, I check it periodically and, yes, make some trades in the a.m. if the kids are okay. I set stops and do what I need to. If the kids are playing well, I may come in the office and check charts and such throughout the day. Anyway, that's my routine. Liz had some good stuff too. It does get easier.

Michelle

Mahmood,

Please direct me to currency pairs. I have Patterns/Symbols unchecked, but can't find currency pairs...

Thanks, Amy

I just took down a put on BTU as it jumped up to what I consider horizontal and diagonal resistance around 44. Thoughts, anyone?

Tim,

I wouldn't have jumped in BTU just yet. It's climbed over my trendline, and it looks like a triangle-type upside breakout happening here.

I would think 45.50ish was the horizontal resistance- but I'm new and still learning.
What do you say about BA- H & S pattern?

Amy,
under Patterns/Symbols there is a check box for currency pairs. This is only available on the prophet tab in the thinkorswim platform. It is not available on the ProphetChart on the Investools site.

Brett,
I don't see a H&S on DECK at all. I do see it running into resistance repeatedly and a 4 week triangle coiling and ready to break, possibly down.

I agree with your assessment of BTU as it has broken my trendline as well.

Just sayin'....

Thanks for your perspective, Brett. I will be watching this one close and may be out pretty quickly here.

TOL is flirting with it's support line today

Brett.....i am confused??? i do not/can not see what you are talking about w/DECK.....i see a sym triangle starting around 8/16 with a 10 point price target, but i just can't see the h&s, maybe i need new contacts??

Thanks, Mahmood.

On DECK, I see resistance around 97.50. I would play it to the downside from here. Right now, DECK doesn't fit REE for me. As for the H&S...I wish I could see it. The neckline at 80 loses me.

DG, forgot to tell you...nice wand.

JCOM at top of triangle...looking for volume to confirm.

Tonya,

email me bdatlas@yahoo.com.

BIIB has been a rocket for me today. I add to the position yesterday based on REE and this happens today

Thank you Raimo :-)

REE rules

Well, I am out of puts BTU. That one didn't last long. Small loss, but still a loss. I hate it when I pick a bad one like that not only because it's a loser but because it messes with my mind the rest of the day.

Thought about turning around and going long, but it's so extended now I can't let myself chase it.

Amy,
JCOM triangle, yes. Breaking out, no. Not yet anyway.

(Glad you like the wand. Next time I change the picture, I'll put up one of my broomstick!)

HANS looking good, gonna wait to the end of the day to see if I'll pull the triger.

That of coure is to all the great help you all provide here. Thanks so much.

Keep your eye on it.

JCOM needs lots more volume and the last hour of the day to confirm...it is on my radar

DRYS on good Volume - Looks like a good BO.

Check the Oct 75 Calls - Might be a good entry point.

David in NH

check KLAC out, it is tightening into a very narrow triangle and when it break it would be good. I will only take it if it breaks to the up side (since I do not bullish continuations below 200 MA)

Please give your read on this.

CVH is right up there pushing my resistance button. It has until the end of the day to turn itself around and go DOWN.

Mahmood,
I would take that trade if it broke out WITH VOLUME. It looks like a good trade.

Michelle

sorry my last message was really bad. What I meant was that I will only take the KLAC trade if it broke to the up side with volume.

thanks for putting up with me :-)

CVH...I concur...

NUE, GLDN looking interesting early. Need volume.

Agreet Scoot,

I have been keeping an eye on GLDN and will add NUE to my watch for today.

but will wait till end of day to see if I want to take a position or not.

Anyone looking for a bear trade may want to consider ACLI. Downtrending stock that just filled in a gap up and has turned down again.
Also GMCR is bouncing off the 40 day MA for a low risk bull entry.

Rd

UA...should I be worried?!

PNC looks good for a bearish trade. It had a failed bullish triangle. Now it has a Channel up bearish pattern, which looks to be in the process of playing out. Anyone care to offer some input.

Thanks for any observations,
VeroBarbara

Lis,

I bailed out this morning when it broke my diagonal support line (although i should have waited for the end of the day)

Anyone noticed ABX breakout? good REE 35.00 And Options are cheap.

Diana

Take a look at ASTE. It had BO above 52 on 9/4 and is holding. Is this a good REE for calls or should I wait for a pullback? Feedback appreciated.

VeroBarbara

Diana-
This stock seems to like to move in sideways channels. It's making a new high and may start making another channel. I've traded within channels before and that can be a lot of fun but since this is making a new high you don't know where this one is going to go yet. Even though it's a breakout I don't think (my personal opinion) that this is the best stock to play. There are easier trades. And last night on the marketcast Eric talked about trading pure commodities like GLD, SLV or CEF instead.

Again my opinion and hopefully another way to look at the stock.

liz

Does anyone have an explanation for wide spreads between bid and ask on options (i.e.: more that a dollar)?

VeroBarbara

Thanks for you thoughts. I think I will see what it looks by the end of the day.

VeroBarbara,

I think it is because the market makers are a bunch of @%Q%!%^!s.

Seriously, I can only guess it is because demand is not strong enough for that option to raise the bid closer to the ask. Whatever the reason, I see large spreads as a danger sign and stay away from them like a trend staying away from this market.

liz,

spread are reflection of supply and demand.

if you look at housing stocks, when that market was tanking and everyone knew something was wrong, if you want to buy a PUT you need to have someone willing to sell a put to you. but who in their right mind would sell you a put.

This would be agood indicator once the housing starts to recover the wide spreads will go away.

hope this helps

Liz,

Thank you, you're right looking at the 2 yr chart it is in a strong channel. Good thing you all have taught me to wait until the end of the day to make my trades.

Thanks to everyone. And Liz I owe you one.

Diana

BIIB is nearing a multi year high, if it goes past 70 lookout. it has a nice ascending triangle on the MOnthly chart just to check it out

I was playing a Sep/Jan calendar on it but as it keeps going I am also taking short term position along the way.

Keep an eye on it

Dang i missed LFG yesterday

what about FDO for a bearish play?? i see resistance just above $28, looks like it is low risk from here (??REE??), will not take much to know if your wrong and if your right it is a ways dwn

Does anyone use Fibonacci Retracements? Can you explain to me how you are supposed to read/use it?
Thanks for all of your help everyone. I really need this support group.

Tonya,

At this point, FDO doesn't look bearish to me. On an intermediate term, yesterday looks like it confirmed support at $27ish with a higher low. Looking intraday, this morning 27.50 held as support as well. That's my .02.

Mahmood-
Thanks for writing back but I think it is VeroBarbara who was questioning the spreads on ASTE. ;-)

liz

bear flag on MTG.
Theres a desc triangle, but i'm playing the bear flag. Previous support at $30 for a low risk REE.

Any thoughts?

clean cups

MTG looks good. LM for a potential breakout if volume picks up.

Lis,
If you have a TOS account go to shadow trader and click the listen and watch button. Peter (shadow trader) uses them periodically throughout the day.

I use this website for options and price pattern education. I only use Shadow Trader to learn about day trading real time.


Brian K
Brian K

Lakerzfan,

I don't see a bear flag on MTG, but I do like the bearish setup. It looks like $28.82 is the last level of support before 23.18 in the last 10 years. There is also a lot of open interest for the October puts. Interesting........

Scoot, Mahmood

thanks for your thoughts on B/A Spreads. Though I have trades ASTE some time back, maybe you're right about lack of interest on the stock.

Lakerzfan,

I see what you see on MTG. A bearish trade might work down to 26 or less.
Disclaimer: I am not giving trading advice, because I still have a lot to learn. But, I still like studying charts for possible trades.

I really like reading everyone's comments and questions.

Thanks,
VeroBarbara

Brian K
Thanks for that. I have listened to him before and figured out he must be day trading. So the Fib Retr. is used for day trading then?

I'm still trying to decide if I need to get out of UA. Volume is low and it's right at my line. It has broken through it for a period of time. What would you do?

Thanks

I look at bidu, I am guessing nobody is buying this option are they? The cost is crazy dec 210 costs about $34 per contract that is nuts. that means the stock has to move 25$ before we can see some profit?? I like the play but don't buy the call need to figure something else like an iron condor or a calendar spread.

Even Grmn call has a 10 spread between the cost of the option and the stock. I love these companies but thaat vix has got to cool off a bit. Stuck with spreads I guess.

Dale, that's only true on BIDU if you hold all the way to expiration. If BIDU moves between now and then, you can sell back much of that premium.

That said, it's a high priced stock and I usually don't buy calls or puts on those to avoid taking that much risk.

Tim

I agree but if the vix drops you can get slammed on the option cost as well that is what makes me mad the trade looks good but the cost is huge!!

CLEAN CUPS!!

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  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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