Post feedAll Work and No Play...
The biggest news this morning is Merger & Acquisition activity. I know! I couldn't believe it either!
The problem is that it impacts an Addict Favorite, Garmin.
Nokia announced that the plan to purchase Navteq, NVT for over $8 Billion. What you might not realize is that Garmin is Navteq's biggest customer, and with the Nokia buyout, Garmin will now need to negotiate pricing on it's map subscription. Had they just spent the money and acquired Navteq themselves, this would have made it possible to collect the revenues from cell phone and other handheld device makers that offer maps and navigation systems.
My feeling is that they deserve it. For those looking to "get a good deal" you are going to be dealing with downgrades galore, and a few have already come out and downgraded to "neutral" or "sector perform." Buyers beware.
Addict Rating: Under perform. Sell.
That is right, I ditched it at the open. I am not expecting to see the performance that I anticipated when I got into this trade, so I washed my hands with it this morning. Good riddance.
NOK looks better now anyway. I am moving the proceeds into a hearty position.
With the leftovers, I am taking down the following...
The problem is that it impacts an Addict Favorite, Garmin.
Nokia announced that the plan to purchase Navteq, NVT for over $8 Billion. What you might not realize is that Garmin is Navteq's biggest customer, and with the Nokia buyout, Garmin will now need to negotiate pricing on it's map subscription. Had they just spent the money and acquired Navteq themselves, this would have made it possible to collect the revenues from cell phone and other handheld device makers that offer maps and navigation systems.
My feeling is that they deserve it. For those looking to "get a good deal" you are going to be dealing with downgrades galore, and a few have already come out and downgraded to "neutral" or "sector perform." Buyers beware.
Addict Rating: Under perform. Sell.
That is right, I ditched it at the open. I am not expecting to see the performance that I anticipated when I got into this trade, so I washed my hands with it this morning. Good riddance.
NOK looks better now anyway. I am moving the proceeds into a hearty position.
With the leftovers, I am taking down the following...
MCK- I've been bearish on this P.O.S. forever. Eventually, the shorts will "Halve" this.
LIFC- Added to my calls
FSLR- A clean cut entry point
As you 've seen demonstrated over the last few weeks, I am buying everything hand over fist. After all, we are at new highs today!
"To the Moon, Alice!"
Recommendation: These are just appetizers until I get to the entrees (watchlist) later today/tomorrow.
Long: Play
"To the Moon, Alice!"
Recommendation: These are just appetizers until I get to the entrees (watchlist) later today/tomorrow.
Long: Play
Short: Work
Disclaimer: "Do as I say, not as I do."
Jeff,
Thanks for your insight into GRMN. I bettter just sell mine too. I see it touched its 109 diagonal resistance and dropped back to horizontal resistance of 108 and just keeps bumping.
--Patti
Posted by
PCurry |
10/01/2007 10:31:00 AM
Patti,
The comment "Do as I say, not as I do" was left just in case my opinion swayed anyone else. I am not suggesting that the stock might not re-coup some of those gains. Please make sure you stick to your game plan. It is likely that it will pay off in the long run.
Posted by
Option Addict |
10/01/2007 10:34:00 AM
Jeff,
On GRMN I saw a descending wedge forming on the 15 min, 5 min and one min charts and has now broken to the downside. That was the clencher for me.
--Patti
Posted by
PCurry |
10/01/2007 10:37:00 AM
I like that explanation better. Sounds good.
Posted by
Option Addict |
10/01/2007 10:45:00 AM
I only had 1 grmn contract left this morning so I am not too upset with today's event. I do see some people getting in this morning, buying on the dip. I think it might pay off, it has to, it's garmin we are talking about!!! :-)
However for myself: It doesn't work well with my managing risk strategy since the stock could drop further and just sit there for a while without moving.
Interesting to see what the stock will do going forward :-)
-steven
Posted by
Anonymous |
10/01/2007 10:47:00 AM
Yeah to FSLR!!!! I was wondering when you were going to join me on this ride.
Posted by
Sarah |
10/01/2007 10:48:00 AM
Jeff,
Any thoughts on how the NVT situation might affect TRMB? Technically, it looks like a good entry bouncing off of $39.
Posted by
Scoot |
10/01/2007 10:55:00 AM
I guess with GRMN, you had to leave your emotions at the door and just work the chart.
LDK looks good as well.
Posted by
DavidS |
10/01/2007 10:56:00 AM
Sarah,
Obviously, I was waiting for you to make all the money first.
Great work!
Posted by
Option Addict |
10/01/2007 11:02:00 AM
LAMR retesting desc. triangle breakout.
Posted by
VA Beach Girl |
10/01/2007 11:10:00 AM
Jeff,
Any suggestions on a technology ETF that would catch some of the increases in AAPL, RIMM and other techs?
M
Posted by
Anonymous |
10/01/2007 11:11:00 AM
Marty,
QQQQ.
;)
Posted by
Option Addict |
10/01/2007 11:14:00 AM
Marty,
Here are a few Technology ETF's that I had noted:
XLK (Tech)
HHH (Internet)
SMH (Semiconductors)
SWH (Software)
Posted by
LisaG |
10/01/2007 11:19:00 AM
VA Beach Girl,
I tried to get into LAMR late Friday, but didn't fill. Ended up getting in earlier today when it was trading up slightly.
Posted by
LisaG |
10/01/2007 11:22:00 AM
CLEAN CUPS... new mid-day post from Jeff!
Posted by
PCurry |
10/01/2007 11:58:00 AM
Now I don't regret getting out of GRMN early however, this event was not really likely, so I got lucky.
I am liking FSLR, I am hoping it pulls back closer to 120 though.
Jeff, FCX looks like it is off and running. I did not get in because I was waiting for it to test 100 again. Should I have taken a smaller position as it seemed to hold 105 more?
I remember it was mentioned to let it consolidate, but it rose the next day and it sounded like you were pleased and were already in the trade, I am sure you saw it earlier but was I right to not necessarily take it down at 105?
I am sure you will likely say I should have done what I planned, haha which is true but just curious to hear what you saw and did.
thanks
Ben
Posted by
Anonymous |
10/01/2007 12:00:00 PM
Greetings,
I took profits on deeper in the money calls that I had on GRMN on Friday, that was my dumb luck move of the year! The only reason I took profits was that I wanted to lock in my gains after learning some tough lessons ealier in the year about not being to much of a pig. The events with Garmin today are a good reminder to me of position sizing.
Posted by
Ryan in Cowtown |
10/01/2007 12:14:00 PM
On Saturday when I was reviewing my positions I noticed I was up over 100% on my GRMN trades and thought, "Hey, I ought to take some profits now". ***sigh***
Posted by
Stan Lake |
10/01/2007 05:52:00 PM