Watch Your Step


Is that a bear trap or a bull trap?


Yep, I saw the post about Wilmington. Antwone (my husband) and I are going back home to Charleston, SC next month because he's in a wedding. His father and stepmother are in Wilmington, but I don't think we'll make it up there on this trip. We're driving down and we're making it a two day trip because of the kids, so once we finally get there, we'll want to be off the road as much as possible.

We're hoping to move back home for good in the next 6 months or so, so I will definitely be looking you up! :)

And no, Raimo, Mr. I-Scabies, you will NOT be invited!

Just kidding... :)

In your opinion, do you think there was more volume on the downside this morning or on the upside this afternoon? The middle of the day in between the double bottom was pretty low.

In my opinion it looks like it was a pretty even fight. Just wondered what someone with a better trained eye saw.

I'm referring to the indices, of course.

Okay. We are all curious as to what that means.


Brett, I'm with you... wondering what kind of trap that is and what it means in terms of Jeff being bullish/bearish on the market.

Raimo, help us out! I don't know for sure, but it looks like a bear trap to me...

Well, he said "your" in the headline, so I suppose that means us, but what are we supposed to beware of?


I am thinking Jeff's last post was deliberate. If you are postioned correctly, you don't worry so much about if this rally is a trap, or for that matter, market direction. I understand the concept, but need to improve my technique to avoid the fear of logging on in the morning. I am only 2 years in and still realize I have a lot to learn but I am definitely getting better! Thank you Jeff and bloggers.

Ideally I want to learn to hedge like Jeff does(where are those one on one sessions? ;-)

What was funny is as I was reading the last post I was like "oh great, I am a risk taker and impatient" assuming that was bad only to find Jeff is the same way, hahaha.

I am still confused about being a directional trader but then being Delta Neutral. I'll have to investigate this or bother Jeff with an email, which he will promptly erase.


Let me try this one ....

Volatility is back .. 200 point reversal in one day .. Option pricing is higher and one could lose his/her proverbial shirt if you aren't:

1. Position sized correctly
2. Diversified

Bulls, Bears, Market or anything else won't 'trap' you if the above is in order....

Thanks for 'gettin' our back' Kohler ... or is that our foot!?

Bears get trapped, Bulls get put down......

Not a pleasent demise for either....

Speaking of which, I am off tomorrow and Friday, yes, hunting, so haev a great end of week and weekend. I'll check in from a tree..

I have no idea what the graphic meant from Jeff's post. From the time stamp it looks like it came after the market closed. So maybe it was something about tomorrow.

On a positive note, I was way from the computer all day today and when I checked CNN and we were down 150 points, I was afraid my stops would have kicked in on HANS. As I look now, I see that was NOT the case! Go HANS Go.


Short CAH, MMP

I am also in the process of switching my account over to TOS, so I don't have too much cash to buy things at the moment...

A Bull Trap? What's that?


great post,,,you definitely "get it"

sure looks like a bear trap to me,,s&p futures with huge hammer today on above average volume,,,bullish,,,now we just need confirmation

Hammer at support, or hanging man at resistance?

You be the judge...

You and Raimo can go to a bar, hold hands, and cry in your beer if you're long on ELON. It may waffle a bit here, and tempt you to add but it's going to a whole new echelon... ie: the basement.

Get it? Echelon... ELON... well, at least I crack my dog up. Except she's got some kind of bowel issues tonight and is causing some major global warming in here. Good thing no one smokes.

Brett and Jeff you'd be proud of me. I bought some SPY puts this morning for some protection. Thought I'd be an instant millionair around 2:00 today but settled for a tiny profit.

Thank you both for putting these on my hit list. I love having this as an option!!!

Hey Krystal... the Clean Cups Queen needs a picture. If you don't post one then I'll make one up and get it on your blog name.

PCP is hitting it's head on 150 for the third time. This will either break out big time or be a triple top and head south. Stay tuned.

This comment has been removed by the author.

ILMN... was at a good entry point but it's even better today. And earnings are just done, so volatility has plummeted. Very reasonably priced calls. This one looks really nice!


Glad you asked. A 'Bull Trap' is when you are out to dinner with another couple and a conversation breaks out regarding a topic you are somewhat familiar with. Halfway through pontificating, you realize that your fellow conversator is far more knowledgeable than you on the topic, and that it's now embarassingly clear to both spouses that the 12 or so facts that you've spouted out have been quietly flagged as 'laughable', 'idiotic' or generally the work of a 'low moron.'

That, my friend is a bull trap.

But what i was really wanting to know was whether you were indicating the mid-day selloff was the trap or the rally into the close. Based on my absurdly bullish positions, I'd say I figured it out.

PHRM... did anyone notice what this thing did over last earnings? How'd you like a piece of that. It's at a perfect bounce REE... but eranings are in a week.

I wish Raimo would be the judge and call it a hammer!

Good grief, stare at that SPX chart long enough and you'll go batty.

Jeff, I'm going to just ask the question straight out:

Inquiring minds want to know, what the heck did you mean by that post?
We can all surmise or put our own spin on it or wonder if you meant the beginning of the day or end of the day, but I for one give up guessing.
Is there anything we need to be aware of that you see that we may not see, "Oh, Captain, My Captain"?



the end of my post was unclear. What I meant to say was, "I figured out what Jeff meant, and I'm glad that I have absurdly bullish positions."

Beware of the bear trap, which is what that mid-day swoon APPEARS to be. But we're not out of the woods, and those damn bears can pop up anywhere to claw away the next rally attempt. Thankfully, my boy will be in a tree most of the day tomorrow and I know he was at the archery store tonight... so any grizzlies appear and Raimo will stick a quiver up its arse!

Thanks, Brett.
I am a little more bullish than I should be, but none of the bear plays look quite ready to enter, so I was getting worried that I needed to study some more charts and find some to add.

Have a good night.


Chris, I have a picture posted... are you unable to see it?

Is SBUX a descending triangle? I just started IT?

Looks like about a 2 point move on SBUX. Almost broke out today, but the late rally reeled it back in. might be worth watching tomorrow.


SBUX doesn't really look like a D.T. to me, but I'm pretty new also, so it might be. What would be your price target?...

Please don't trade options on stocks that move 2 dollars.

Jeff posted a picture of a bear trap. A bear trap is when the market appears bearish so everyone loads up on bearish positions or shorts the market, and the next day, the market gaps up, thereby trapping the bears below.


I didn't mean anything by it, per-se. Trading that sell off early in the day was just a classic bear trap. Note that the Fed fund futures jumped huge today and the market is going to love a quarter point cut if it is granted.

Bear Trap.

Jeff, are we EVER going to get Eric Utley back?...

Thanks, Jeff. I am really trying to diversify and still need a few more puts in my portfolio. Was getting worried that I missed something in my market analysis.

Got my "Technical Analysis of the Finacial Markets" in this week.
I am reading it slowly with a highlighter. Thanks for making the recommendation.

Good night all and happy trading tomorrow.


Could we be looking at a little bear flag on GCI I hope so.


UNREAL! Mine just came in the mail on Tuesday. I'm reading it with a highlighter, too!

I'm starting chapter 2, Dow theory...

Eric Who? He's hunting Gold bears in he with Ramio


Thanks for "spelling it out" for us. I knew it was a bear trap, but sometimes people like me need clarification.

Again, I appreciate all the great education you provide, here and on the 'Cast.

Yes, unfortunately the cast will be forever dilluted. The bright side is that Eric and I will likely reserve a day of the week where we do it together, and the rest of the week will offer other POV's.

However, it is very likely we will start another one on the outside very soon. When corporate america sticks their fingers into things they dont understand, it destroys the value.



Although, I don't think the term "diluted" describes the 'Cast now. It's as much worth listening to now as it ever was. I enjoy Ben, Mike, Josh, and Jonathan very much! They're a good mix!...

Agreed? :)

Jeff, when should I expect to start sending checks to Kohler Consulting for private tutoring? :-)

Ps the iPhone is handy for mobile blogging LOL.

Jeff, one of the reasons I am not in corporate America anymore is the stupid weak decisions that get made for all the wrong reasons. I know better than most because I am guilty of some of it and when you are in the position of power many times the real and true focus of the company and their reason for being gets lost. Jeff hang in there you are a jewel to this company and tell Eric we sure do miss him. Best advice I ever received on this is - NEVER do anything you do not believe in for money, power or position or it is will lead to a slippery slope and years later you will not recognize who looks back at you in the mirror. Believe me I know.

I spent all day in a wildfire meeting with other professionals here in CAL and even trying to the right thing to save lives and property yeilds some really stupid decisions that in the end are motivated by greed instead of safety. For some reason (AMZN) my account got creamed today too.

Oh and Chris I do understand your anti CBAPS logitic so I guess I am SOL until I find that target sign. I could however make you all money. Anything you want to make a bullish move I can buy a put for you?

Chris and Catherine,

I don't think PHRM did anything on earnings last time but it did have a huge move on drug news.

The company said that Phase III clinical data for its drug Vidaza showed it could significantly extend the lives of patients with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, a group of blood disorders.

Sweet Jeff,

Thanks for clearing up the Marketcast hosting Q&A. No regerts on the Adv. Tech. prez the other night, I recorded the feedback loop and made a juicy dub reggae track out of it. Lemons to lemons aid my padre. Add two parts Hnager One and let it ride! Thanks for staying up with us tonight. It's been real.

Oh, and legged into a much better spread on HANS today, didn't totally hit the bottom during the short sell but came close. Thanks again for all you do.

Ryan in SF
aka - The Stay Puffed, Must-Mellow Man

Jeff (or any other OA) do you recall when you posted on the affects of having the log box checked or unchecked on ProphetCharts? I wanted to revisit that because tonight I was playing around with that function and noticing again what an affect it can have on where you draw your S&R lines. See DRYS for an example. Do most of you leave it checked or unchecked?


Michelle (and everyone else):

The murphy book is great, but don't stop there. Use Jeff's bookstore as a guide and try and read everything there. I know it's expensive, but if you want to really learn, you need to absorb as much as you can from different sources.

I think I've read a good portion of them. Loved the Market Wizard books. But I'll go back and make sure I didn't miss anything. Thanks for the suggestion.

Thanks for enlightening on the bear trap thing. I had never heard that before.

Futures are up. Looks like Jeff, again, predicted the future.


Bob in TN. Thanks for pointing that out. Where I got the idea that happened over earnings I'll never know... just goes to show that you see what you want to see, not necessarily what's really there. That news came out a week after PHRM announced earnings.

Krystal your Profile is not available. It says (and I quote) "The Blogger Profile you requested cannot be displayed. Many Blogger users have not yet elected to publicly share their Profile." Don't be shy. We are not here to judge. Just because your picture shows you looking at a dictionary, wearing fuzzy slippers, and hair in curlers does not mean that we will label you. We are all equals. Except Jeff. He's just a little more equal than the rest of us.

Bob (and Pam)
Don't know if you've looked at your AMZN position, but it has pulled up to a level of support, actually past it. Hope you held your position. As Brett pointed out yesterday, it actually looks like a good buy despite the price action and the news. (Sorry Brett, if I incorrectly paraphrased what you said yesterday about AMZN.)
Anyway, don't despair.


As we discussed some time ago, it's hard to give up what we're used to. You and Eric were the Dynamic Duo. When either of you were missing it just wasn't the same. The two of you have a synergy that I, for one, love. The 'Cast is still a great source of information. It's just... different. Please do tell Eric we miss him. If you guys hook up for a "Freelance 'Cast" that would be awesome.

Meanwhile we still love YOUR 'Cast.

Gotta run... my cat just barfed up ANOTHER STINKING HAIRBALL!!!

CLB announced earnings. Estimates were $1.30 - $1.34. Guidance was 1.32. Announced earnings were 1.29. Look for a big selloff this morning.

MDC announced a net loss of $3.40 per share. Can't find the estimates. I'll be watching this one today as it's been a regular on the "Slinky toy down the stairs" charts.


For YOUR information, I don't even have a dictionary, you big weenie! And if I did, your picture would be next to the word 'obnoxious!' And I don't wear hair curlers... I use a hot iron, thank you. And I don't wear slippers, I wear slipper SOCKS!

Now, onto my profile. I changed the settings so that it will be displayed to "Everyone." It was originally displayed on to "My Contacts," but I think that was a default setting; of course I don't mind if you all see my profile. Let me know if you can see it now. If not, I'll go back in and mess with it again.

Now Jeff, you tell Eric that he is the new Poo Poo Head around here for not doing the Marketcast everyday... Man, he is sorely missed!

Laney, did you see my post about coming home?...

Peter, this is from Tim Knight's book: "An arithmetic graph is constructed with the values of the y-axis (that is, the prices) equally spaced. The difference between 50 cents and $1.00 is the same as the difference between $10 and $10.50 -- or $100.50, for that matter. No matter what the price, the bars are scaled the same way. A log graph, however, represents percentage changes correctly. So if you took a ruler and measured the distance from 50 cents to $1.00, it would be the same as the distance between $100 and $200, because they are both movements of 100%. There is no reason you ever need to use an arithmetic graph when looking at a stock chart. It can badly misrepresent the movement of the financial instrument (be it a stock, a future, or a mutual fund), because it treats all price movements as identical, even if they are not." (pp. 28-29)

Hope that helps, Peter.

GS, cup and handle ready to move.
Today might be the day.


Michelle, thanks for putting that one back on the radar. It looks good.

BTW, where are you at in Murphy's book. I just started Dow Theory last night (chapter 2)...

Still on the first chapter. Between the options class on Monday and studying stocks and Fall Carnivals, haven't had a lot of reading time.


We have Fall Fairs up here in the great white north and they have Demolition Derbies in them. Catherine loves to pack a lunch, head for the hills and watch a bunch of Mountain Boys smash each other to bits.

And you wonder why I married the woman?

Krystal you are still turned off. Maybe the photo of you in your pyjamas with the feet in them didn't make it past the "Taste Police."

Futures have dropped from +57 to +24. Brazil has gone from -180 to +628. Yikes.

Oil futures are up 1.50 and gold 5.40. XOM which I got into at the wrong time hit a beautiful line of support and is now bouncing. Earnings are coming up but it would be an awesome entry otherwise.

VDSI - down over $7 in premarket, looks like earnings. That puts it right at the support line I drew in 2 months ago. Not sure why the bill selloff but barring something truly awful, I might jump back into this. Might, being the operative word.

Chris, I changed another setting... can you see me now? :)

And don't you twist my words! I didn't say that I wear pajamas with feet in them (pyjamas- (n) a suit for sleeping, consisting of trousers and a jacket). My 7-month-old wears those! I said I wear slipper SOCKS, gosh darnit!

You and I both exited XOM (I took a small loss). Now if they rebound today, you and I both will be exiled to the bowels of the Dungeon of Shame...

I miss Eric too. I second Chris when he speaks of synergy between the two of you. Even though I enjoy the other speakers it just doesn't feel the same. There was a nice balance there. It was like looking at a 5yr chart and then zooming in to the present.


If you don't take AKAM now, you're missing out on a blockbuster trade.

c&h breakout?


Thanks Krystal- much appreciated.

Do you see AKAM filling the gap of last earnings?

liz.. it has to be a C&H. Brett loves those.

Krystal. You're still invisible. Thank you so much for the definition of pyjamas. I always wondered what those things were. You may interperate that anyway you like.

DG holy moly!!! VDSI sure got hammered. I think I'd want to see some kind of proof it was going to resume it's upward trend before I got into it. It'll be interesting to see what it does. Down 30% right now!!!

C2, XOM's earnings will be 1 gazillion dollars.

I am looking at an entry on ACH here, using horizontal support at 70.


I agree with Jamie. And it is sitting right on support today (which would be a little uncomfortable, I should think.) I recommend you buy a bunch and hold over earnings.

Let me know how it goes.

Just kidding... but it's tempting to pick some up today on the dip. It's Sooooooo on REE.

Today seems to be marking the 5th day in a row that I'm losing money. Just bought MDC after earnings.

Doji Girl,

Are you still in YGE? It is bouncing around off of 30 support.


Well, the Dow looks like its breaking a fairly strong resistance line as we speak, so I'm bullish on the day

*************** NEWS FLASH ********

POT just announced earnings that are not only record setting but bode exceptionally well for the future. They took a kick to the teeth due to the strength of the Canadian dollar, but all numbers are record setting and they have already surpassed the previous record earnings by 20% and still have a quarter to go. There was something in there about having their tax status changed for this quarter only (which cost them some money on the bottom line) but it will revert to the old tax status for the remaining quarters.

The stock is presenty down 5% and is a screaming buy.

This public service announcement was brought to you by beanie1111's counter-trader. The line forms to the left.

Do you want to hear something really, really funny? I was going through Jeff's watch list this morning and noticed that MON looked really good. So I looks and I looks and I finally chooses the Jan 90 calls and I puts in a bid of 6.85 because my cheap Scottish blood (which just HAS to be there) says that even though it's up a bit in after hours there's probably some ditzy blonde out there who'd give it up for 6.85... right?

Well... my 6.85 bid is still sitting out there and the bid/ask is now 8.00/8.30

Funny huh? HA ha ha. I'm laughing so hard my arms are hurting. Or maybe it's a stroke.

Meanwhile HANS which I liked on this dip is down since I bought it this morning.

<<< THUNK >>>>

Oh... my arms just fell off.

I'm off to JCP to look for a winter coat for my son... be back in a few hours. Somebody keep watch for the clean cups, will ya?...


Krystal, what is winter? I think we in SoCal have forgotten what that is. Also not sure we remember how to do Clean Cups without you.

Chris, I hope you get your arms back on before Catherine finds out. But I am not sure how you do that without help. She may just hit you with them for dropping them in the first place so watch out.

Michelle, I was stopped out of AMZN so on the sidelines now. Our account is at a new low because of this but I am not really worried at all (mostly) because I just know we can build it back.


Don't worry on MON, I took the trade yesterday for you. Happy to help.

Morning OAs!

CMED - AT Breakout... watch for it to hold near/at the close.

ESRX - Great earnigs release and move today!

Raimo? Keep bagging those bears - you can have my tags if you need more.


Thanks for the BIG HELP!!! Actually MON is pulling back a bit so I might get in yet. I sure hope so as my SPY puts are killing me today. It ain't cheap insurance right now. MDC is going against me as is HANS.

Just another day in paradise.

The new home sales, is that positive or negative news?
Any more economic data expected today, besides earnings, of course?


WOW WCG imagine owning the stock and waking up to that. That brings reality to this business. It is a tough one.

Thank G_D sold my calls last week.

ANyone have any thoughts it might be a good call to buy some shares as the news might be overdone. The calls are really pricey for the price of the stock.


I guess we kind of nailed that STP trade at $43, eh?

FLR at B/O above 52-week high.

Anyone checking out BG ... busted out earlier today on great earnings and raised next years estimates ... selling off after opening up about 10 points.


Does anyone know what happens when shares of a stock are delisted? I own some GSLM and today its value showed up as $.00. Yesterday its value was $2.60/share. Now what???? My broker said it was delisted yesterday, but didn't know any more than that. Thanks.

WCG - unbelievable .. I have been in that one but didn't own it today .. Hope none of you did ... A Fed and State warrant to search premises and 63% drop in the stock ... incredible!

WOW is right David!

SYK-on Jeff's watch list. Dip at 30 day moving average. Horizontal support not as strong. Already had earnings. Another plus.


WFMI-still at trend line. Right at horizontal support (look back over last year).


If it were not for LFG I would be down again today. Thank you LFG!

I do not know if I could be glad or worried that fire trucks keep driving by my house. We live on a hill about a block from wildland interface. Also two blocks from our fire protection water storage tank.

I like CLB and was going to get in but got distracted. Now it looks like I will have to wait for a retest or breakout of 137+


SYK - wouldn't support be at 70. Is it at a low risk entry?

thanks for your input.

Keep an eye on EWZ if our market rebounds so will it. it also flagging.

on the down side I like SII to 62.50 and see what happens there

I forgot about ATW iff it breaks 80 that could be another line in the sand


I just got in a little bit ago, if that means anything.

BKE-volume pop yesterday but today it looks like it's breaking above the flag.


I have a loose horizontal support around 69/70 but trendline support is stronger.


Bob (and Pam),

I know exactly how you feel with regard to distractions. I was hoping to get into ISRG when it was around 150, and now look at it (my husband's fault :~).

Any of you neighbors to the north use Rogers Communications?

I just used some january options on it (RCI).

Yes, I know earnings are next week, big deal.

SVU from Jeff's list rolling over. Just got some Dec 40s. At H & D resistance.


Usually if you buy it... it does mean something! ;-) (ASTI, BPHX, and the list goes on...)


RCI looks really good.


Brett, Rogers sucks. But that's just my opinion. Obviously others disagree. Good luck on it.

VeroB, tuff one on ISRG. That's an unbelieveable climb in the last 2 weeks!!!

liz, SYK is a company that a buddy of mine does a lot of business with. He's owned their stock for quite a while and done well with it. I love that it's at both diag and horiz (slushed a bit) support.

Krystal... I'm interested to note that you buy your kids coats. Kids aren't tough enough these days. A few days without a coat would thicken their blood a bit. Also... you shop at the Penny store? I guess I must 100 times the parent you are... as I shop for my kids at the Dollar Store.

Incidentally... a cooking tip for you all. If you're chopping onions and your eyes get all wattery and red, so you decide to go out to the pool house and put on a pair of swimming goggles... if the mailman rings the door to deliver a package, I'd suggest taking the goggles off first.

Just a thought.

This is not exactly a comment but...

I am usually a shot-term/day-trader but I decided to get PTR at 247.5 and I'm not exactly sure what to expect. Apparently this is supposed to go up, but it doesn't seem to. Should I hold'em or lose'em?


I'm sure the mailman needed a good laugh for the day!

I thought SYK looked pretty good. I've got alerts set on a lot of stocks that just haven't given a signal yet. Waiting... waiting...

As Bob was pointing out earlier, here in Southern Cal we don't really know what winter is, at least not anymore... Grant said he's become a wimpy Canadian living here and I grew up in Colorado so I've become pretty wimpy as well. We have light jackets for those cold 60 degree winter days.


Moshe Teutsch-
I think it looks good. Today it's touching it's 10 day moving average. It looks like it's just been consolidating a bit.

What rules do you use for day trading? Just think of this as longer term with the same rules in place. You'll still have support and resistance and a target.


Clean Cups.

What do you think PTR's target is?

PTR is forming a wedge with a $30 price target at least

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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