Market Recap

We could prossibly remove todays market action entirely off record and nobody would notice it's disappearance. The Dow ended down 5 while the Nasdaq finished up 2. WOW! The breadth of this movement support the upside, since advances nudged declines by a slim margin.

The big concern is the warning the Fed keeps issuing about inflation and rate hikes. What about TOL today? They lost money last quarter, but since they lost less than expected, this is good? The stock finished up today, with only a minor range of trading. Normally on an earnings announcement you will see at least a volatile day, but nothing of the sorts here. Think homebuilders have seen a bottom? I don't know if I am convinced, but anticipating trading ranges for a couple months unitl business picks back up.

I must admit I am still leaning bearish on the market. With such a mixed arena of emotion, I probably doesn't matter what side of the fence you are on. There is opportunity everywhere.

Keep an eye on Existing Home Sales, Durable Orders, and New Home Sales for additonal confirmation of inflation. These reports will give us a more detailed perspective. In the meantime, I am gearing up for another bear open tomorrow. However, if the reports start piling positive data, I can flip my switch and go bullish pretty easy.

Have a good night!

Based on what I have home sales report will be horrible...and TOL will still go up. This is very frustating and and I am tired of trying to play PUTS and losing money on the Homebuilders. Down trending stocks in a downtrending industry should go down when earnings are crappy....shouldn't they?

But is it possible that it depends on the multiple of the stock set by Wall Street? Knowing the market most often moves in extremes and then balances, have we hit the bottom and overshot now to return to the "fair price". In the region I live in house building is about nill yet commercial building is taking off like a rocket. There are seven new sites just in 1 mile from where i live. All the companies doing the building are owned by TOLL!! So as interest rates may be at a resting place for the moment, is now the time for companies to build or establish contract rates to build and now Toll can change categories of construction type from private to commercial and now still churn a profit?

Prices rise for a reason as traders we just have to dig deep to find them and hope we succeed befor the move in the market has been made. As home building declines has commercial building increased? With interest rates on hold companies with the ability to develop properties and expand will take the break in the interest hikes to secure loans and expand now. Near where I live home building has come to almost a complete stop yet there are 7 construction sites within a mile of my house all commercial and Toll owns 3 of the companies involved in the construction. Could this be what other investors know? Could Toll also be discounting themselves only to release surprise earnings later after they secure more commercial contracts?

but does TOLL find commercial construction at this point to be a potential profit opportunity. As rates are on hold more companies will be apt to expand and grow giving companies like TOLL more work.

Jeff just want to say thanks for all your hard work

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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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