As is sit here in Michigan, freezing my bezeebers off I've contemplated how nice it would be to be headed to Orlando. I wish I was going. :( If someone could pass me a winning trade to fund a last minute ticket I sure would appreciate it.

MikeH

I didn't rent the suite,but sure would love to go and meet some of my fellow addicts. See you in Orlando.

Sarah

Jeff,

"I am through about 75% of this weeks watchlist..." What does this mean??? Are you in and out of 75% because they acheived the target or hit a stop?? I am trying to understand your thought process here. Thanks!

Jeff,
I believe about two months ago we put the Presidential Suite/Happy Hour on YOUR list of things to do. We promised to do it next year (when we're not waffling about just breaking even.)
You'll find us in one of the cheap rooms, overlooking the garbage bins.
Thanks again for the video. Just checked in to the hotel in Edmonton Alberta (where it's -10 F) and am getting ready to listen to the video and set up this weeks trades.
Looking forward to this weekend. We're arriving a day early to go visit Mickey. Still have a bunch of DIS stock we bought in our daughter's names.
Chris and Catherine

I am still in WFR although that may change by the end of today if it keeps up its current movement. Can't wait to get to Orlando!

- Steve

Lois,

It means I am nearly done compiling this weeks watchlist.

Thanks,

Jeff

Jeff,

You say you don't hold over earnings, and I have been burned enough with earnings to agree with you, so how would we have played HNT? The signal came in on 2/5, but earnings were just a couple days later. Would you have just rode the trade for the couple days? I don't understand how this could have been a nice winner for anyone without taking the earnings gamble.

Jennifer,
I agree. I decided to hold ICE over earnings because it's an exchange and... how bad can an exchange be over earnings, right? I have watched $12 evaporate (yes I sat slack-jawed and wide-eyed as it continues to plummet) as the stock drops on no real news. Still made $3.50 on the trade, but that $12 would have bought plenty of rounds at the "Happy Hour" that WAS going to be in Jeff's palatial suite.
My hard and fast rule that has now become harder and faster... "never ever, ever, EVER hold options over earnings... (except when you want to... then take a hammer and apply liberally to the cranium.)"
Chris and Catherine

Jenifer,

I'll calrify this again.

Holding over an earnings announcement is a risky business for new traders. Mostly because they have no idea on what the outcome could be.

If a trader wants to hold a trade over earnings, they ought to do a thorough analysis and take recent price action into consideration to reach a conclusion of whether or not it would be worth the gamble.

If I said I never hold over earnings, it would be a lie. I have taken a half dozen trades over announcements this earnings season and I am 4 out of 6. Even after a good analysis, occasionally you'll be wrong.

If you want to hold a trade over earnings, realize what the outcome could be and protect yourself from substantial risk.

The call is yours to be made.

Jeff

Hi Everyone!
How strong of an uptrend do you have to be on for a flag pattern. If you look at MHK - it has the potential for a 9 point move if it should break out of it's flag pattern. I'm just not sure if it has been in a solid enough of an uptrend for it to count. Does anyone have an opinion to offer?

Thx

Jodi

Jodi,

The stronger the trend, the higher the probability of success will be. I'd say the existing trend is fine.

Jeff

Hey Jeff & Fellow OpAdds..

Looking forward to meeting you in Orlando! I'll be there early Sunday hanging out in the User Group Networking area, trolling for new members for our S. Florida group. Do come over and say hi.

It would be great if we could somehow pick a spot and meet.. perhaps during the cocktail reception? I'd love to put faces to some of these names that I see here.

Karen R.

Does any one see a falling wedge in UNH?


I had to laugh at chris & catherine's comment about watching ICE fall while watching wide eyed & slack jawed!! That's funny! I can so relate to that! I hate putting hard stops in on my trades, but I think I'm going to have to start doing that consistently from now on because I just can't be trusted to exit when I'm supposed to exit all the time. However, I am proud of myself for exiting my stock positions on NYX, BSC & MER three days ago. Those loses that I took sure feel good 3 days later!

Valerie W

Jeff-

while we're on flags...

I missed the spectacular cupandhandle move on SYX from $20 to $28. i know the consolidation was only 2 days, but with today's volume and price action could you still consider today a flag breakout?

Jeff, I cannot get the video to work in IE or firefox.

Bob

Valerie W,\
This past week has just proven that there are no hard and fast rules in this business. I have found that setting stops is a dangerous game, too. There are many days where setting a stop would kick you out intra day, and then the stock would close the day higher. ICE was a prime example of that. I almost sold out on a stop (but stopped myself (if you'll pardon the pun)) on ICE when it would have meant breaking even. It was way down during the day, but ended the day up a few cents. I still ended the trade up a few dollars, despite losing those $12 that could have been in my wallet instead of some hose-headed duffus. oops, did I say that?
Hard stops can be more of a problem than they're worth. It's better to check in an hour before close and sort things out then... I've found anyway.
Chris and Catherine.