Thanks, Jeff,

Great list of stocks to review.
I get a warm, fuzzy feeling when my watchlist has several stocks in it that you highlight. Maybe I am on the right track...???

I am waiting for some volume to pick up and better confirm the price moves.

Amy

Hello Jeff/Everyone,
I have recently started looking at 1 day charts to get a better feel for entries and exits and I was curious to know if you could suggest what to look for as far as MA's, Stochs and MACD are concerned. Right now I am using the same as my longer term charts, but still not sure if that is correct. Talk to you soon.
SJE

Hi Jeff,

Thanks for the watch list.

Does RIMM look like a head and shoulders? The shoulders are a little weak. It looks like it's breaking the neck line around $131. Not enough volume for confirmation, but maybe by the end of the day.

Joel R.
California

JEF,
GREAT WATCH LIST THANKYOU. tAKE A LOOK AT LVS. IT BROKE OUT OF A DOUBLE BOTTOM TODAY. VOLUME IS NOT GREAT BUT WE HAVE A POSSIBLE MOVE OF 5-6 POINTS BARING THE RESISITANCE AROUND 92/93

ANU

Not much volume today! Traders must be waiting for tomorrow's announcement for price confirmation.

Great trade on PCAR!!

Amy

Wanted to add an old favorite, "X". I saw this as a symetrical triangle with a potential 9 point move. X really found support at the 30 day during the market weakness. Yesterday it made a nice test of it. A move above the body of yesterdays candle with the S.T. break got me in the trade. I thought it was hard to find volume confirmation today on some things. I like the fact that X did have nice volume the last 2 days.
Jamie

Everyone,
Take a look at SII (Smith International).
This looks like a "load the boat" put trade for 8 points.
The options are extremely cheap. Reward to risk about 8-1 for May contract.

Ohio Rick

Does SHLD qualify as a head and shoulders? It looks like it was in a sideways trend for a couple of months. If it is a H&S, then it just retested the neckline with volume going down as the retest occurred.

Bob

Ohio Rick
I'm bringing out the bag of hammers on SII. I can't for the life of me see a reason to short this stock. It looks to me like it's in a strong upward trend and could break thru $45 resistance in the next day or two. Just goes to show that two minds can see two different things looking at the same chart.

Jamie, I sure like the look of X today. Volume's close to 50% above normal, and it broke through that pesky $90 zone of confusion (or cone of silence, if you're old enough to understand that.) Sure looks like a good call to me.

Must get to bed as my head's full of condors, and butterflies and collars, and other such nonsense. Thanks Jeff, for another awesome video. Can't wait to follow up on some of them.

Chris and Catherine

ANU,
I feel like the wicked witch of the west tonight... disagreeing with everyone. The good news is that means everyone should just go ahead and buy, buy, buy, as my record is not exactly stellar. LVS to me looks like it re-tested the neckline of the previous H&S perfectly today. My guess is that it will continue it's downward plunge tomorrow. Looks like a 20 point move over the next couple of months.
Chris and Catherine (we may listen... but we disagree. Tonight anyway.)

Hello all,

Even though I haven't posted in some time, I wanted to share some market analysis that I have done the past few days.

Before I start, I do have a bearish bias.

That said, we should always react moreso than forecast. Trade what you see, but be prepared to react.

When I started to analize the May correction from last year, it really has been pretty amazing to me just how history 'can' repeat itself.

For example:

The Dow had an initial drop of 5.1% and then consolidated for 2 ST(short-term) bottoms and 2 ST tops. This initial process took 15 days. Both of these ST tops retraced to just about the 38.2% Fib level. After the 2nd rally failed, the Dow sold off for the next 8 days, for a total drop/correction of 8.2% (5.2% from 32.8% Fib level).

Currently, our initial drop was 6.7% (keep in mind we have rallied for 8 months)and we have consolidated for 2 ST bottoms and now 2 ST tops (if it fails with the lack of volume). We now stand at 20 days. What's interesting is that we now are just about 20 points above that 32.8% Fib level. If my intermediate term target of the Dow plays out (~11,655), we would be prepared for the 2nd downleg from the Fib level at 5.6%, for a total correction of about 8.9%.

More comparisons:
(May retacement levels listed first, current levels listed second).

$COMPQ = 38.2%, 38.2%
$NDX = 38.2%, 38.2%
$INDU = 38.2%, 38.2%
$SPX = 50%, 50%
$MID = 50%, 50%
$SML = 50%, 50%
$TRAN = 38.2%, 50%

I found today's closing numbers to be pretty amazing. All the markets right at critical points. The Fed 'might' be the catalyst one way or another. However, with the current 5 day / 350 point rally off of last wednesday's low, is there enough gas in the tank to push the Dow above 12,350? My hunche is that the risk is to the downside in the near term.

Lastly, if you look at pretty much all of these markets on different intraday charts (esp 10 day/10 min / to see wed's low), it looks like we are setting up rising wedges to these current Fib levels. As always wait for confirmation. The next few days should be very interesting.

Larry S.

p.s. If you are a Bull, just please proceed with caution from current levels.

Jeff,
Thanks for your hard work on the watchlist. I only wish I could return the favor for all the help you provide. I took trades on srcl, cg, psys, bounces off support. The rapid fire patterns on the video really helps in training the eye to see the patterns. Let us know what we can do for you.
I hope you take time for yourself and family.
All the best.
Brent K.

One last thing. POT. Yet another sym triangle. Boring, I know. Sorry.

Jeff, how's Crash doing? Is he out on the courts yet? You sounded down today on the video. Don't burn the candle at all three ends. Catherine did that once. It wasn't pretty. Take time to smell the roses.

Or the diapers.

Chris and Catherine

X...I got in yesterday after watching it all day. Took the trade right around 3pm when I felt confident it would close breaking out of the triangle.

PCP.....Glad it rallied at the end of the day...let this winner run...

DE...still waiting....

SII....my look at it tells me a good break above resistance at $44.50 and has been in a strong uptrend since Jan....I would not short this either. It is against the trend if you play a put on it.

GRP...I'd like to see it break $45...

SHLD..I see teh same as Bob, H&S retesting neckline...

Cheers!!

Superstition has kept me from posting a lot of my trades...it has also caused me to go to Caribou Coffee and get a White Chocolate Mocha every single morning for 3 weeks straight, but hey, small price to pay for a winning streak, right?

Jamie, i will say I took the X trade yesterday as well. I was very surprised that Jeff featured RS instead of X, but he was right again. RS had a much stronger move. I liked that X was near $100/share, while RS had some overhead resistance from months before.

Let's hope the Fed throws us an assist today.

Everyone,
I like SII because it has a well defined sideways pattern. Take a look at at 2 year chart. Has fallen back from resistance six times over the last 15 months and turned back again yesterday.
I'm jumping in. Quick exit if the market rallys big after the Fed announcement and that resistance is broken.

Ohio Rick

Brett, Bob...good luck on the X trade. I am not trading SHLD, but I did look at the retest of the H&S also....and I see a diagnal trend support starting back from 3/15/06 on the 2 year chart. SHLD held that and bounced. If it breaks that, then I am in with puts. I guess that would increase the probabality right ? A break of diagnal support and the neckline support.
One more thing..to Chris and Catherine... I see the same thing on POT...but no volume. I do like the price action in these sectors. So I took a half position. If volume confirms I'll look to add the other half.
Jamie

Jamie,

Thanks for pointing out the trendline on SHLD...waiting for a close below that may be prudent...

Anyone here on the blog on the charts all day? Is it possible Jeff to set up a chat room? Would that generate more dialogue and traffic?

Cheers!

(Rustling of coins, as Chris tries to scrape up enough cash for a White Chocolate Mocha. Now... what's a Caribou Coffee? and how do I get me a piece of that action?)

Chris and Catherine

Hmmmmm Ohio Rick, I see your point. This is just like at home... I'm always wrong. It'll be interesting to watch SII over the next few days. But there's definately lots of resistance at (or about) the $45 range. You go, guy. And be sure to brag about it if you're right. I did on BXP (it was one of my few winners.) Might join you if it keeps heading south over the next day or two. Looks like it should be good down to the $36 range.
Chris and Catherine

Dang....I was watching TAP but missed the breakout...putting this on my radar for hopefully a pullback and retest...

I think I like Molson better than White Mocha...

Cheers...

SII....possible breakout to the upside today?? Be interesting to see where this stock closes today, if it closes above this strong resistance....???

I sure hope no one got faked out of BWLD this morning. Remember Jeff's painstaking commentary on CTSH back in the day?

NEVER sell out of a position in the morning...ESPECIALLY if the stock is downgraded on 'valuation'.

SII....Did I say puts? I meant calls... :)


Ohio Rick

Chris and Cathrine,
I don't agree with you about the head and shoulders. To qualify you need a right shoulder and that is not present in LVS ( at least I do not see it after looking again.) I really appreciate your feedback though, and I agree with you on SII. This a a really great way for all of us to learn. Thanks

Anu

Anu,
I agree that LVSs right shoulder is hideously deformed. Sort of like the Hunchback of Notre Dame. But you can't ignore it, I don't think. 90 bucks has a history of being strong support/resistance. If it breaks above 90 I'm not sure how far it'll go, but my bet is it'll bounce off 90 and head down about $20 to $70.
Now let's sit back and watch what happens. You're right, this is a great way to learn.

Ohio Rick... your call on SII, buddy. I'm right... no I'm wrong... no I'm right. Thank goodness options are cheap. It's just about broken through $46 which has been resistance (as you pointed out) for 15 months. But there's no real volume. I think this is one of those things that make you say "Hmmmmmm" I'm going to sit this one out.

Chris and Catherine

I had to try a White Mocha.

Yuengling and Iron Hill Brewery has been my drink of choice here in PA....

Looks like there's a new kid in town......

Any thoughts on ZMH....nice uptrend, popped yesterday, down today..

Cheers...

Yuengling! The Oldest Brewery in America! Only someone from PA can love...

John
Rhododendron, Oregon

John,

LOL....