New Thread For Thursday

Hmmm....Looks like the market is struggling to hold onto this mornings gains. There are still plenty of nice trades floating around out there.

I am still working on my post on "Futures Part II" I hope to get that out sometime today.

Recommendation: Leave a few comments. Maybe we can start a fire this way?! Today I am a little braindead & spacey so lend me a hand.

Long: BSC (upon confirmation of the inv. head & shoulders), PKX, X (Trade is still paying dividends for all you patient traders!) & TSO

Short: Still short WYNN, hopefully PSA soon.

Hey's kinda dead around here. It is beautifull in Florida and I must confess that I am on my way out the door and bringing my 6 month old for a stroll on the beach. BUT....I am in PCAR, I have traded it before and it has always been good to me. I have my fingers crossed that PSA will be as fun to ride down as it was to ride up. Just waiting for the right entry point. I have been working on a trading system for $SPX. I have back tested, back tested, back tested.....and for the last 2 weeks I have been paper trading it with unbelievable success. Next week I think I will have the guts to trade it for real....but so far (in the paper acct) it has been crazy profitable and I'm loving it. I'll keep ya posted once I have solid proof that I haven't just been "lucky".
Well gotta run the beach is calling me, it's like in the 80's here !!!!
Tonya W
daytona beach

ROK is breaking down out of a sym triangle but on weak volume so far. Potential 8 pt move.

I didn't get the enry I wanted on HWCC but took the trade anyway with fewer contracts. PCAR looks like its bouncing so I grabbed that as well today.

I'm heading to Florida. Hope the market holds it together while I'm in the air.


Oh, and take a look at FDS, appears to be bouncing off support also.


Yeah, Jeff, you, me and apparantly half of Investools students jumped on to Houston Wire. Look at the volume of the May $30s, over 2200 contracts.

By the way, like the FDS setup. I think that's been on the watch for a while. I keep missing the setup though.

Joel R.

I have been in a funk for a week and a half +, meaning, 4 of my last 5 and 6 of my last 8 closed trades have been losers… That is well below my ratio of winners. Needless to say, this is when one tends to doubt themselves… However, since I broke my rules a couple times, once on one of the losers and once one of the winners, and news pushed a couple of other losers outside my support or resistance levels, I am comforted to know that if I stay the course I will be fine. News doesn’t kill a trade I am in everyday, just the past two weeks and breaking rules hopefully doesn’t happen more than the once that it costs you money.

Right now I have a lot of winners in the works. I just need to see them out to their targets.


Short: CME, CAL, HOG, RATE, I am too…

Thank you for all the help thinking through my thoughts with everyone.

Rhody, Oregon


Be careful making the transition from paper to live trading the SPX,it is very different(on the fills), start very small.

Good luck,


RS steel broke out of the 47ish resistance today on good volume.

US Steel - X - has certainly been my big winner lately. Up a nice $3.61, 3.70% today. It broke that $100 barrier just after 10 this morning, and despite several attempts to retrace, it held up and finished the day at $101.22. One of Jeff's previous pics that has now worked out twice for me. Thank you! July 95's looking good!

John M.


I have traded the SPX a little and the fills are terrible. You often have a 1.50 to 2.00 spread and are rarely filled at the mid point. The fills are also slow because it is traded in an open pit. Try the RUT instead. Similar movement, smaller spreads and faster fills because it is traded electronically.

My system wasn't very good because I am too emotional day trading but if you are willing to share Iwould be interested in what you are doing.


Tonya: I have traded the SPX options succesfully. The problem is being able to pick a good entry, and when you are wrong that thing moves against you without mercy. Plus the specialists take advantage of you when they can. I Would love to hear about your system. I think we could all pick away at it and maybe post some entries and exits on the blog. Jeff would you endorse this idea?

I have used the market forecast and fibonnaci retracement for entry and exit points and of course the trend. I think in this volatile sideways market it would work well as it could be forgiving but if takes off to either side and you picked the wrong side it tends to make you lose a lot of mula.
You have to have nerves of steel.

That is if Tonya is willing to play?

Jeff will you or could you make this a case study? I am sure there is a lot of interest and I am sure we would like to hear your thoughts.

David S

WOW !!!!
Who would of thought such interest. Thanks for all your comments and suggestions. I have been "parellel trading" the SPY and $SPX (this was recommended by one of my coaches). I was reluctant at first (b/c i didn't think the SPY would move fast enough for me). BUT You can purchase about 10 contracts of the SPY for the same price of one $SPX contract. Of course the moves are much smaller, but as i test the system on each, it seems to equal out in the end. Gotta love the small spreads on the SPY.
I am willing to share my system with the blog as long as Jeff is okay with it.
I am open to all suggestions and ideas for improvement.
Unfortuately, i have to work my "day job" tomorrow, but if Jeff approves, i will post my trading rules saturday afternoon.
Jeff.....what do you think ??? This could be the "blog excitement" you've been looking for....

Looks like RATE is going to make a run at that neckline early today.

OK Josh, here's your opportunity to post your comment to the blog since Jeff wouldn't read it last night on the market cast.

Does anyone want to share with me their experience of making the transition to full time trader? I know this is a personal question, so I don't expect anything. I do enjoy the concept of doing this full time and wondered what type of thought process, account size, and consistant returns someone typically has before making the switch.

Happy trading today!
PCP has 1 more day of this sideways trend before I cash in on the profit and take a better trade.
RS is looking sweet!


I'm happy with PCP trading sideways while the market in general been pulling back...I'm letting it run until it shows me weakness...

ATI on the radar.......

ATI on the radar...

Did anyone get in on TEX on 3/16..?? This is another winner I am letting run.

Hmmmmmm......interesting, and no joke..Bretts WM's making a difference...?? Whatever works, but I'm sold...all my trades working well...

Sorry I am late to chime in, Tonya I would love to have you walk through your system on the SPX and SPY. One more vote.
Bob H.

...And another (vote). I am also very interested in having Tonya be the next case study and to learn more about the strategy.


Nice support bounce on NTGR this morning.

This is my first post to the blog, I am a PhD student and have been trying to successfully trade the SPX.

I was very successful earlier on, but the SPX Pit traders can make it difficult to trade, and as mentioned earlier, you can get hit fast and hard.

I would look forward to a detailed discussion of an SPX trading system.

Happy trading,


USNA just comfirmed the bearflag formation. Target $38.



USNA looks like it has some support in the $45 range, and the move so far today is huge already, dropping right down to that $45 area... What do you see as a target?

Never mind, I see, your target is $38.......

Need more coffee....jeeeesh..


I didn't get a chance to buy a put on USNA since it dropped like a rock in 1 hour and now it is sitting at support at 45. Since it has dropped 25% in just under 2 weeks I don't have a good feeling for this one continuing under 45 despite the price pattern target.


I'd love to see the SPX trading system also. The SPX and the RUT also trade mini contracts from the CBOE (1/10th value). Their symbols are XSP and RMN respectively as well as DJX and MNX for the Dow and Nasdaq. The Dow and Nasdaq symbols can be brought up on Prophet Charts with a "$" before them, but I don't know how to bring up the S&P or the Russel Minis. The spreads on them appear to be more reasonable. If anyone knows how to bring them up, let me know.


I assume you're looking at bailing on PCP, if you haven't already. I just wanted to throw my 2 cents into the ring. Impatience has been my biggest enemy.

This reminds me of MLM when it was around $100. I got impatient with that one too. If you bought enough time, i'd wait for this nice new short-term base support to fail rather than look for something hot to jump into. What will happen IMMEDIATELY after is PCP will run and your new stock will base, and the frustration/impatience will start up all over again.

I have paper traded $ndx before. Much better spread than $spx. Love to discuss your $spx system.


CORRECTION--Those symbols are all for 1/100th of the normal indexes (not 1/10th as posted above). Sorry!


I owe you. I almosts bailed on BWLD on the 22nd, but hung in there and am enjoying the ride. Your comment on valuation re-assured me....and more than likely kept me in the trade.


Great to hear, Bob. Wish i hadn't bailed on it the next day like a moron.

I bailed on BWLD on the 21st because it closed below my support line. That is my rule. I have tried using a 3% above or below rule but got burned a couple times only to have the stock close a lot above or below on the next day...

I would like to still be in, but am fine with my choice. I have detached from it.

I figure that my rules, if followed, will help more than hurt.

Have a good weekend!


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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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