Posted by Option Addict on
3/21/2007 at
3:53 PM |Permalink
Are you kidding me? I'm sitting here absolutely dumb founded at the suggestion these guys toss around 5 and 10 million dollar buy/sells and then back it up with mis-information to manipulate the market to their advantage.
I never really understood the power these guys leverage over individual stocks and the market in general. Wow.
Does not surprise me one little bit. Unfortuately, in the business game this is normal. One reason I wanted out of it, as I saw this type thing all to often. My question then is - how do use this to our advantage and profit from it? Bob H. CA
Jeff, Thanks for the clip. Although I did not understand half of what was said by Cramer, it is evident that the market is manipulated by others who are very clever. As someone said earlier, you can either swim in the ocean or sit on the beach. What choices do we have? Just manage the risk as you and others have drilled us to do. Definitely an eye opener. Brent K.
Just incredible stuff. I wondered how old the file was but when they started talking about the Apple phone (and then end of year 06)...
Yeah, talk about money flowing in and out of the market without even batting an eye. And the attempt to manipulate - unreal!!
Well, quite the bounce, interesting comments all around about the lack of volume. I'm setting up my PUTS for tomorrow - the calls are all around (nice watch list Jeff).
How about MER as a short play after coming up to the MA and decent level of resistance? or HOG again, after some consolidation and poised for a drop back down?? HANS is also on the list.
No mention from Eric about playing his IWN - anyone going to try the counter Fed trade again????
Cheers,
Gary Boston - still below freezing first day of Spring!
Sure, the DIA was light, but the SPY and QQQQ were both trading heavy on today's big move.
I hate to say this, but of the blogs I check (including this one), every single trader is bearish still and waiting for another fall. I use that as a contrary indicator.
There may be a counter-fed rally. But it will only take us slightly down to retest new support from the double bottome and head up to retest old highs.
You are using Jeff as a contrarian indicator? Don't fall victim to the false hope that just because you've drawn a line on a chart, that the rest of the market will play off of it. I've done it to myself in the past.
I've learned, at the expense of trading and losing that it rarely impacts stocks the way I expect it to. Hence taking Jeffs advice, don't form an opinion on news (Fed announcement this time for me).
CRAMER:
If you all would loan me 50 million, I'll do the same as him and let you all know first!!
QUESTION:
Are there any regulations that prevent major money from swinging the market? Obviously it does not work if there are...
BULLISH/BEARISH/NEUTRAL
I am not taking a position on the market being bullish, bearish or neutral. I am not experienced enough to. I will watch the charts carefully and and hopefully they can tell me which camp to be in.
If you can't trust your lines on the charts, then you can't trust in technical analysis.
Further, i'm not using Jeff as a contrarian indicator. I'm noting that all traders I've read lately are still bearish. That's a good sign for bulls. I have huge respect for Jeff, as he knows. But Jeff will be the first to tell you he's not always right. Jeff also has some monster bullish plays working right now.
And lastly, the reason i've made money now 3 straight weeks (the first time in the 2 years i've done this) is because I learned that no matter what you think the market is doing:
1) trade only the strongest patterns
2) make sure you're diversified
It's easy to say and much harder to do.
Lastly, Bob, you have a White Mocha in the morning too? I'm trapped into this habit due to superstition and it's costing me a fortune!!
Seems like a lot of breakouts yesterday...how many will re-trace today I wonder??
I like the way BCO is setup right now for a bearish play. I can draw a bear flag and/or a sym triangle. Stock at resistance and a down day yesterday on huge volume. Stock in a downtrend of recent and also at resistance. I don't like the support at $57/$58, but if it breaks that support??
Am I missing anything?
Brett,
Never had no heard of a White Mocha till you posted it. Figured I try it since I do like my hazlenut cappuccino...
I'll be sending you the bill each month now that you got me hooked...
cheers, Very observant, that Web-Cam was posted earlier this yr. on the street .com. Cramer is self promoting and every one shouldn't forget that. I believe the market will go sideways today with Inst. buying on the dips. Sit on your hands if you CAN!!!
Brett, Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish right now. In fact those are the only trades I have. I'm looking for bearish because I don't trust the market right now. We're running it up again on some fairly questionable economic news.
So, I'm trying to find those bearish trades to act on when the time is right - presenting good entries.
Today should be interesting. I'm riding PCP higher and higher!!!
What's all this talk about me being a contrarian indicator?! Last I checked I have been spot on with the play by play over the last few weeks. True I am not overwhelmingly bullish on the market....but that doesn't mean I am not long the market as we speak.
Contrarian indicator....... maybe I give a contrarian watchlist next week :) (insert evil laugh here).
Did anyone take a bearish trade on SLM? I bought puts on this trade on March 19th when it looked like it was retesting the descending triangle breakout. I was kicked out of the trade yesterday. I have a feeling I am setting my stops to close to my entry price and I am getting knocked out of trades prematurely. This seems to be a pattern for me. Even if you didn't take the trade, where would you have set your stop? Any help would be greatly appreciated.
I think that you did the right thing on getting out of SLM because it closed above resistance. In fact my rules would have told me to get out the day prior. However, my rules don’t me much if I don’t follow them. Here is my SLM trade:
I got in on 2/26 because of a bounce down from descending resistance on 2/25 with a target of $40.50. It then traveled alongside my trend line until 3/19 at which point it traveled outside the trend line. My rules tell me I should have sold. I stayed in because the descending triangle that had formed and broke through on 3/13. I considered the drift outside my trend line a retest of the break. My descending triangle rules told me to get out on 3/20 when it closed above resistance. I chose not to because of the lack of volume and the upcoming Fed announcement. I set my stop real tight before the Fed announcement and got kicked when it when up. In one trade I broke my rules twice, the original trade and my adjusted assessment of the descending triangle.
It cost me profits both times.
I’m usually very good about following my rules that evolve seemingly daily. This time, I was not.
Lesson: Follow rules!
Today I have decisions to make and they are real easy.
Thank you for your thoughts. I have exits in my rules, and I followed them. (Wow!) I am trying to use ATR to set stops, but sometimes it involves more risk than my rules allow. Thus, I am missing great opportunities.
I don't trade spreads, but in a choppy market, maybe I should consider it.
There has been some comment about doing spreads in this market. I have used this strategy for the last two months and have had great results. I currently have spreads on ADM,CSX,FMCN,IIG,VLO. They aren't home runs but they are producing steady profits until there is more conviction on the market direction and less emotional trading. Does anyone else have good spreads going?
I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
Are you kidding me? I'm sitting here absolutely dumb founded at the suggestion these guys toss around 5 and 10 million dollar buy/sells and then back it up with mis-information to manipulate the market to their advantage.
I never really understood the power these guys leverage over individual stocks and the market in general. Wow.
MikeH
Posted by Mike | 3/21/2007 05:02:00 PM
*#!* . Need I say more.
Sarah
Posted by Anonymous | 3/21/2007 05:47:00 PM
Does not surprise me one little bit. Unfortuately, in the business game this is normal. One reason I wanted out of it, as I saw this type thing all to often. My question then is - how do use this to our advantage and profit from it?
Bob H.
CA
Posted by Anonymous | 3/21/2007 06:33:00 PM
Jeff,
Thanks for the clip. Although I did not understand half of what was said by Cramer, it is evident that the market is manipulated by others who are very clever. As someone said earlier, you can either swim in the ocean or sit on the beach. What choices do we have? Just manage the risk as you and others have drilled us to do.
Definitely an eye opener.
Brent K.
Posted by Anonymous | 3/21/2007 08:11:00 PM
Just incredible stuff. I wondered how old the file was but when they started talking about the Apple phone (and then end of year 06)...
Yeah, talk about money flowing in and out of the market without even batting an eye. And the attempt to manipulate - unreal!!
Well, quite the bounce, interesting comments all around about the lack of volume. I'm setting up my PUTS for tomorrow - the calls are all around (nice watch list Jeff).
How about MER as a short play after coming up to the MA and decent level of resistance? or HOG again, after some consolidation and poised for a drop back down?? HANS is also on the list.
No mention from Eric about playing his IWN - anyone going to try the counter Fed trade again????
Cheers,
Gary
Boston - still below freezing first day of Spring!
Posted by Gary D | 3/21/2007 08:29:00 PM
I don't quite understand the lack of volume...
Sure, the DIA was light, but the SPY and QQQQ were both trading heavy on today's big move.
I hate to say this, but of the blogs I check (including this one), every single trader is bearish still and waiting for another fall. I use that as a contrary indicator.
There may be a counter-fed rally. But it will only take us slightly down to retest new support from the double bottome and head up to retest old highs.
Posted by Anonymous | 3/21/2007 08:37:00 PM
Brett,
You are using Jeff as a contrarian indicator? Don't fall victim to the false hope that just because you've drawn a line on a chart, that the rest of the market will play off of it. I've done it to myself in the past.
TJ
Posted by Anonymous | 3/21/2007 09:15:00 PM
NEWS:
I've learned, at the expense of trading and losing that it rarely impacts stocks the way I expect it to. Hence taking Jeffs advice, don't form an opinion on news (Fed announcement this time for me).
CRAMER:
If you all would loan me 50 million, I'll do the same as him and let you all know first!!
QUESTION:
Are there any regulations that prevent major money from swinging the market? Obviously it does not work if there are...
BULLISH/BEARISH/NEUTRAL
I am not taking a position on the market being bullish, bearish or neutral. I am not experienced enough to. I will watch the charts carefully and and hopefully they can tell me which camp to be in.
White Mocha in the AM, Yuengling in the PM.
Cheers....
Posted by Raimo | 3/22/2007 05:33:00 AM
TJ,
If you can't trust your lines on the charts, then you can't trust in technical analysis.
Further, i'm not using Jeff as a contrarian indicator. I'm noting that all traders I've read lately are still bearish. That's a good sign for bulls. I have huge respect for Jeff, as he knows. But Jeff will be the first to tell you he's not always right. Jeff also has some monster bullish plays working right now.
And lastly, the reason i've made money now 3 straight weeks (the first time in the 2 years i've done this) is because I learned that no matter what you think the market is doing:
1) trade only the strongest patterns
2) make sure you're diversified
It's easy to say and much harder to do.
Lastly, Bob, you have a White Mocha in the morning too? I'm trapped into this habit due to superstition and it's costing me a fortune!!
Let's rock and roll today everyone!!
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 05:46:00 AM
Seems like a lot of breakouts yesterday...how many will re-trace today I wonder??
I like the way BCO is setup right now for a bearish play. I can draw a bear flag and/or a sym triangle. Stock at resistance and a down day yesterday on huge volume. Stock in a downtrend of recent and also at resistance. I don't like the support at $57/$58, but if it breaks that support??
Am I missing anything?
Brett,
Never had no heard of a White Mocha till you posted it. Figured I try it since I do like my hazlenut cappuccino...
I'll be sending you the bill each month now that you got me hooked...
Posted by Raimo | 3/22/2007 06:54:00 AM
cheers,
Very observant, that Web-Cam was posted earlier this yr. on the street .com. Cramer is self promoting and every one shouldn't forget that. I believe the market will go sideways today with Inst. buying on the dips.
Sit on your hands if you CAN!!!
Posted by optionfanatic | 3/22/2007 07:01:00 AM
Brett,
Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish right now. In fact those are the only trades I have. I'm looking for bearish because I don't trust the market right now. We're running it up again on some fairly questionable economic news.
So, I'm trying to find those bearish trades to act on when the time is right - presenting good entries.
Today should be interesting. I'm riding PCP higher and higher!!!
Gary
Posted by Gary D | 3/22/2007 07:04:00 AM
Gary,
I am with you on PCP.....
Cheers...
Posted by Raimo | 3/22/2007 07:46:00 AM
Anyone else trading BNVI the TOTW from the Cast? I cannot get filled and have reduced my size and increased the limit three times but no fill.
Bob H.
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 08:04:00 AM
What's all this talk about me being a contrarian indicator?! Last I checked I have been spot on with the play by play over the last few weeks. True I am not overwhelmingly bullish on the market....but that doesn't mean I am not long the market as we speak.
Contrarian indicator....... maybe I give a contrarian watchlist next week :) (insert evil laugh here).
Posted by Option Addict | 3/22/2007 08:22:00 AM
Who isn't getting higher on PCP? That sounded great!
Gary, how about CAL, WTI, GOOG (spread) and EXP for some bearish ideas?
It sucks to have to diversify when there are so many breakouts to the upside, but you have to do it.
Anybody been riding the WNR train?
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 08:24:00 AM
Bob,
Once you are ready to leave the limit order behind....the stock can be all yours. As many shares as you want!
Posted by Option Addict | 3/22/2007 08:26:00 AM
Allen,
are you watching the complex h&s reversal setting up on SHLD too?
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 10:14:00 AM
Has everyone taken their profits on CME or is there anyone still in and riding it out?
Jodi
Canuck
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 10:20:00 AM
Did anyone take a bearish trade on SLM? I bought puts on this trade on March 19th when it looked like it was retesting the descending triangle breakout. I was kicked out of the trade yesterday. I have a feeling I am setting my stops to close to my entry price and I am getting knocked out of trades prematurely. This seems to be a pattern for me. Even if you didn't take the trade, where would you have set your stop? Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Amy
Posted by Amy | 3/22/2007 11:41:00 AM
Amy,
I think that you did the right thing on getting out of SLM because it closed above resistance. In fact my rules would have told me to get out the day prior. However, my rules don’t me much if I don’t follow them. Here is my SLM trade:
I got in on 2/26 because of a bounce down from descending resistance on 2/25 with a target of $40.50. It then traveled alongside my trend line until 3/19 at which point it traveled outside the trend line. My rules tell me I should have sold. I stayed in because the descending triangle that had formed and broke through on 3/13. I considered the drift outside my trend line a retest of the break. My descending triangle rules told me to get out on 3/20 when it closed above resistance. I chose not to because of the lack of volume and the upcoming Fed announcement. I set my stop real tight before the Fed announcement and got kicked when it when up. In one trade I broke my rules twice, the original trade and my adjusted assessment of the descending triangle.
It cost me profits both times.
I’m usually very good about following my rules that evolve seemingly daily. This time, I was not.
Lesson: Follow rules!
Today I have decisions to make and they are real easy.
John
Rhododendron, Oregon
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 12:39:00 PM
John and Allen,
Thank you for your thoughts. I have exits in my rules, and I followed them. (Wow!) I am trying to use ATR to set stops, but sometimes it involves more risk than my rules allow. Thus, I am missing great opportunities.
I don't trade spreads, but in a choppy market, maybe I should consider it.
Amy
Posted by Amy | 3/22/2007 01:08:00 PM
There has been some comment about doing spreads in this market. I have used this strategy for the last two months and have had great results. I currently have spreads on ADM,CSX,FMCN,IIG,VLO. They aren't home runs but they are producing steady profits until there is more conviction on the market direction and less emotional trading. Does anyone else have good spreads going?
Posted by Anonymous | 3/22/2007 01:29:00 PM