Friday

Think it will be another unchanged day today? The Dow spent no time selling off it's profits on this mornings housing data...and is just hanging out. Go figure.

Any good ideas floating out there?

Recommendation: Go long JBX. I had a few breakfast croissants this morning, and it's no wonder they are a tick off of their 52 week high.

Long: GROW

Short: Perhaps NDAQ by the days end

JBX - there's a flash from the past. Don't have those anymore here in New England.

The market is maddening how it's just stopped any type of directional move... I didn't think this was the type of sideways we'd be facing.

I guess everyone took off for the Sweet 16 Tourney. Looks like some good showdowns coming up. Enjoy!!

Gary

Sold my IMCL this morning. Perhaps a little early, but a 110% profit in a week is good enough for me. As far as new setups, I enjoyed the retest on ZOLT today as a bullish setup. I also like WRLD as a bearish play and AL breaking down from its symmetrical triangle. That's all i got.

Nice going Brett! Are you getting nervous about PCP? - It seems to be stalling a bit.

Does anyone have thoughts on RS? I took it with what appeared to be confirmation above $46.25 but now it looks like it could be turning into a small flag - or sideways pattern.

BAM is also flaking on me also.

Sorry, no thoughts for trades today. My yesterday bearish suggestions of HOG and MER aren't going the right direction either.

Gary

Gary,

Getting nervous? About PCP? it's up 4% in a week! Plus it's over the $100 mark. I'm using the ATR as my stop loss. Consolidations are only worrisome if you've got a shorter-term option. My PCP calls don't expire until June.

Anyone long JHWK? I'm sure my March 31 (Atlanta) calls are down after last night, but they'll bounce back.

I'm letting PCP, GRP and X run.....

CAL..I bought some puts when it bounced off $39 mark the second time this morning...

Sorry I missed the entry on TAP...

Thanks for the pep talk on PCP. Patience isn't something I'm good at right now with low cash in the portfolio. When I see some other stocks out performing on any given day it makes me wonder if the grass is greener. I have June calls for PCP as well.

Gary

Gary

I hear you on green grass and low cash and lack of patience. I took a beating a few weeks ago. Really bad. And I was really stupid too so I deerved what I got. Thought about packing it in, but that would in my judgement be even dumber. Just need to follow rules and learn from mistakes, and I share your frustration.

In any event, PCP to me looks strong. You can always take some of your contracts off the table and pocket gains, but until PCP shows me any real signs of weakness, or Brett stops drinking White Mocha, I'm letting this runner go for a while.

I'm not stopping drinking White Mochas so don't worry.

Gary, when you commit to a trade, you are committing to THAT trade. Unless something changes with THAT trade, ride it out. Stocks move for many reasons and they don't always move together, or with the market even. I've learned patience the hard way, by watching my great ideas pay off for someone else because i got jittery or anxious.

anyone thinking employment might slow, MNST has been hitting resistance at 50 and is heading down today. DSL heading south possibly
brendan
ca

Jeff - As always thanks for the blog and all you do and thanks to all the bloggers for their contributions.

Currently I am LONG: AFL, MO, FSLR, GRP, LVS, TS, RIG, AFFX & NYX. All doing well except LVS.

I am still SHORT CAL. It's the only short I kept and still looks okay turing back down.

Perhaps someone will find opportunities in there.

Have a great weekend!

Brent in San Antonio

Gary, I haven't been trading that long (about a year). But, one thing I have found for sure. I do much better when I am patient than when I am not.

Good luck,

Brent in San Antonio

Jeff,
Check out DXPE and DRC

Jerry

I got in BNI this morning...

PCP being stubborn, but I cant wait for it to pop..maybe next week...

Everyone have a nice weekend....

I owe someone a big THANKS but cannot remember who. Did others get into TAP and ride that nice profit train (93% so far). On the patience theme I have watched as my paper trading did better than my real $ and evaluated why to find these two main points: 1. I had more patience to let the trade do what I thought it was going to do and 2. I was more willing to get into trades that I saw rather than second guessing myself. Most of the time I find I do better with my trades if I am not at the computer all the time (unless you want to play intraday movement).
Bob H.
Still sunny and clear in SoCal

Bob H.

I hear ya on the paper trading. I too did better. I think when it is not real money you are less emotional and make better decisions..at least I think that is why I did better on paper...

TAP is doing well, run with it...

Just got back from 4 days away and couldn't get to a computer. Looks like a very few have been carrying the blog for a bit. Thanks guys for posting your thoughts. I think a lot of us are in the same boat after... is it already 3 weeks ago? I have to admit that since going away to Mexico, I'm still not back in the market. I've realized that directional options are (as Jeff has pointed out many times) one of the riskiest ways of trading options. I'm now learning some of the less risky (and less rewarding) ways of playing options... paper trading them, and I'm going to cut back on the directional stuff. I expect to take almost a year to make back what I lost 3 weeks ago... but we're going to do it slowly, steadily, and with (as you guys have been pointing out) patience.

This weekend we'll be looking for a few good trades, and playing with our paper spreads. I'll keep you posted if we find anything worthwhile... SHLD looked really good, but seems to have broken the neckline but in the wrong direction.
Chris and Catherine

Just another quick thought... we've only been trading options for a few months... and one of my biggest mistakes, I think, is not haveing the patience to wait for the right entry point. Ya, ya, ya so I've screwed up the exit points too, but I think entering the trade is vital to success. I really like MLM as a stock and it's killing me not getting into it yet, but I think it needs to come back a little bit before I get in. I can't tell you the number of times that I saw something I liked, got in just as it was peaking and rolling back to re-test support. DOH!!!

Great way to lose money. And an even better way to lose money if the market makes a correction. So here's to learning from our mistakes... and only making them once.
Chris and Catherine

C&C
I have been there with you in those learning mistakes. I am also with you watching MLM for that new entry.
Bob H.

Yvonne, if you're out there, I can't figure out your spread on VLO. I'm assuming you're in a Bull Put spread. Right now a 60/55 spread makes the most sense to me and all I can get is a 9% return on it. $4.56 at risk for a measly .44 return. Could you run me through the numbers you worked with when you took the trade? I've just started getting into trades and really want to understand them. This would be a big help.
Thanks

Chris and Catherine.

Check out VAR (Varian Medical Systems) on the 2-year chart for a symetrical triangle about to break.

What an interesting day -- It looks like the bears aren't going to give up so easily. I bought back a couple of bear spreads on Friday and now I wish I had waited until today! SHLD broke resistance at 181.3 last week and now it is retesting that level as support. If the market rallies again I am going to buy 185 calls. BNVI looks solid at 5.5 -- I like that it is holding strong today but I'd like to see it get above 5.5 with some conviction.

Does anyone have any thoughts/advice/rules on stocks that are downgraded? This morning and last week I have been getting killed on this "crap." I don't have a rule on downgrades because I don't have enough experience with them yet. I’m trying not to be emotional and stick to my analysis to make decisions, but watching profits tank and waiting out the trade and not knowing what the final outcome of the downgrade is going to be is, well, emotional. In both cases, there hasn’t been significantly high volume, meaning less than 10% above average.

Thanks for the help!

John
Rhododendron, Oregon

I don't pay any attention to upgrades or downgrades, though I used to. (And they never did what I thought they would do either.) Jeff siad it best, an upgrade (or downgrade) does not mean that is where the stock price will go.

Trust your charts, support and resistance, do not form an opinion on the news...again a tip from Jeff.

good luck!!

Hi all,

ICE appears to be breaking down through what may be a head and shoulders top with the neck at 125.

MikeH

John,

The best you can do is WAIT until day's end. Often times a stock will selloff on a downgrade, only to rebound by day's end offering you a better exit, or even keep you in a trade.

My favorite downgrade is 'valuation', basically meaning the stock is outperforming other stocks so some analyst wants you to sell it to his firm at a discount.

Anyway, upgrades/downgrades are short-term noise unless they follow a meaningful event.

Did You guys take a look a GMR I think it paid a huge dividend and now it is being bought up. Anyone follows this stock?
If it follows the same path as FRO it should retest the pre divi price.

Great volume
Anyone has any comments?
David S

In the past, I would have panicked on todays housing news, and watching my stocks tank, would have sold. Now they are on their way back up. None of my trades broke my support or resistance levels, the White Mocha is still hot, so I am holding firm to my rules...

Lets go PCP, TEX, CAL and X.....

For any addicts interested, RVSN is offering a great retest opportunity from the breakout thursday.

Thanks Brett.....

Jeff,

Good call on GROW. This didn't look like a reversal to me. What indication did you use to go long this stock?

Joel R.
California

Qwest (Q) broke out of an ascending triangle on Friday. Looks like it's retesting today.

Joel R.
California

Joel,

I actually got in this on Tuesday...in my mind it looked like a double bottom and ready for a rise. Catching fire today huh? Hope it keeps running.

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  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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