4 Reasons Not To Trade VIX Options

The question came up last week about why I have such a complex trading VIX options. For the most part, I haven't spoken with anyone who has had a great experience in trading them. I am going to assume that the majority understands the VIX, or has at least read my VIX article on Forbes some time ago.

There are a few reasons I refuse trade them. These are my own opinions, based off my own experiences. If you choose to read them, you may be influenced by my opinions and it may cost you money.

Reason #1: No Opportunities.

With the exception of about a half dozen rallies or retracements over the last year, opportunities involving substantial moves in the VIX are few and far between. Normally I like to follow the momo stocks, and I happen to be shorter term in the duration of my trades, but the VIX wouldn't qualify as "momo" to me, barring a few exceptions. However if you are longer term oriented, the percentage swings are amazing. If you can look out that far.

Reason #2: Implied Volatility on Implied Volatility

What? Due to the fact that the VIX is a measurement of implied volatility, I would have figured that the markup on these wouldn't have been too bad...initially. Check out the range of implied volatility on my chart below...

That's right. A scale of 105-55. Want to know why? Historical volatility. The index has a wild history. Since 1993 (which samples the end of the 90's bull market, the collapse, and our current bull market) The VIX has a price range as high as the low 50's and as low as 10. That is quite a range for such a low priced index. However, no matter how you cut it, the one amazing constant of this index is the historical volatility, which averages 80%. With historical volatility being that high, these will be priced not too far off these historical values. In fact, 80 falls right in the middle of that range (55-105).

As you know, implied volatility that high really pumps the price of those near money contracts. Here is a look at the September paper, VIX trading at 22.81.The calls are trading at 1.40 x 1.60, which isn't devastating if you are expecting a few points of upside. Take a look at the puts. 4.20 x 4.60! That's more like it. These options are priced as if the VIX is going to get crushed, and then some. Problem is that if you hit that ask, you would need more that a crash in the VIX to make money.

Reason #3: Cash Settled

You can't exercise these options. If I could, I would. Take a look at this...

Imagine you bought some of these overpriced calls before the rally in the VIX. With all the intrinsic value you just picked up, you ought to be ready to cash in on some big bucks, right? Wrong. Compare the intrinsic value to the bid. The deeper in the money you get, the further away the bid gets from intrinsic value. Take the 18's for example (August paper). This contract should be worth $4.81 (intrinsic) but it is selling for 2.85! Since these are cash settles, and the market knows you cannot exercise, you are f____! You can imagine what you would have paid for them in front of that rally, or if you can't pull some historical quotes. It will leave you very unsatisfied.

Reason #4: Forward Pricing

The reason that prices don't seem to move at the rate of the underlying index (until you are close to expiration) is due to the fact that the market uses pricing on the VIX futures to get a forward value of the index.

PS- They expire on Wednesdays, not Fridays. Just to be complicated.

Recommendation: Come to your own conclusion if you wish, but I'd take my word for it.

Long: Opinions

Short: VIX options

Brett,
I see VCP. Looks like a good one to watch. CHKP, I understand, but BPHX, what do you see in that chart?

Michelle

Michelle,

Look at the breakout over $10.50. Then look at the volume on that massive run straight up from $8.50 to $14.00. Then look at the pullback near that $10.50 support.

So what do i see? I see a massive flag setting up with volume perfectly conforming. I see the MACD and STOCH oversold and heading up. I see volume up today and a likely breakout occurring. In short, I see a stock purchase at $12, with a stop around $10.00 and upside as far as the eye can see.

But hey, that's just me.

Jeff - Okay, if I wasn't convinced before (and I was) I am now. Why should I take the time to try to beat something the Option Addict founder himself says to stay away from. I've got better ways to waste my time other than predicting the VIX...

Kim

Sorry Raimo, I wasn't home
when you posted your last poem,

I must say, I am surprised
that my name you have surmised,

You and Chip, you swear you know it
That is, the name of the Phantom Poet,

but I think you are full of...burritos
because I am still incognito,

So, if it is true, you now my name
Then quickly terminate this game,

by posting my true identity
and, Raimo, this time no profanity,

So please, right now, could you bestow
my name you believe that you know,

not even your treasured OA thong
will give you a lift when you're wrong,

so, keep posting while you're trading
your feable attempts at Poet baiting,

you may be an exceptional trader
but you are not yet a "master-baitor",

So I will add to your frustration
by not assisting your elimination,

of all the names that could be mine
on this blog which is so fine,

But concentrate Raimo and you will see
my name that is, it is PP!!!

Brett,
Thanks for the analysis. After I get lunch for my kids, I'll study it. You are much further along than I am, and the way I learn is looking at the charts and studying them and trying to see different perspectives.

Michelle

JK,

Excellent post about the top 4 reason you don't trade VIX option.

You mention about "momo stock ", What is meant by " momo stock" ?

Kas

Raimo.....point taken, thanks

ARTC....broke out friday !! looks like we need to wait for a retest

BEAV....is bouncing/earnings 2nite

CGX...67.50 support broken

Might look at POT again .... moving on good volume this AM ....

FCX is showing life again ...

Just FYI!

Kim,

Thanks, I am glad someone mentioned it.

Kas,

"momo" means momentum.

JOYG - I'm pondering a play here. Sto and MACD bottoming out. Volume moving down as price dropped. A break below $47.50 or so and I'm out so it's easy to manage risk. I also see a good support level at its current levels on the 1 yr. chart.

Any opinions, anyone?

Kim

Did anyone trade KRC from my lst last week? If so I was thinking you might consider taking profits soon.

No, Jeff. By the time I looked at trading it, the entry was bad.
What would be an example of a momentum stock?

Michelle

Jeff,
I grabbed some, hoping it breaks $62 hard....


THANKS!!!!!

Brett, I see all that. The question I have is: Can a flag be that long? I had that same question the other day on POT. Jeff had called it a flag, we had some down days and I wasn't sure if it was still considered a flag. Are there rules on flags that I should know about?

Michelle

Kim,

From a technical point of view, I see support at $47. The thing that pops into my mind is that what started this whole downward movement was them revising their outlook downward (CAT had done the same thing a couple of days before). That leads me to wonder if the big money will come in and buy it or not - today's volume doesn't convince me that they are, at least right now.

Anyways, that's my .02.

Scoot

Brett,
I am watcing VMI. Would that be a flag? It looks like it is bouncing off support. The only concern is some volume on the down days. And it is not optionable.

Michelle

Brett,

CME and GOOG..

ROCK ON !!!!

Jeff and Eric mentioned stocks that do well in tough markets. TAP was one of them. It is right at some good support and up a little today. Looks like a good entry point for any interested.
CAM and NE also right at support. The OIH hit support today. Might be worth watching.

Michelle

Jeff, on the KRC trade are you taking profits now because it has hit the target or is there another reason? I see that the volume is shriveling up on the down move. Here would it be one where you could take off a few and tighten the stop on the rest?

Anu

Scoot - Thanks for the JOYG info. You're absolutely right on the news front. I think my "on-sale" gene was kicking in.

Kim

Michelle,

TAP...

I would be careful on this trade. Very careful.

I'll probably get out of most of the position. I don't want to let it go up at all, and it has already exceeded it's price target at $62.

Is anyone watching RIMM? It is looks like it is breaking through $220 with momentum.

Calvin

Raimo,
It is a small stock play with a tight stop on it. If it doesn't hold, I'm out.

Michelle

Jeff,
Thanks for the insight on the VIX. The one thing you didn't mention was about selling VIX Puts as a hedge against bullish positions. When the VIX was @ 15, I sold naked Aug 14 Puts because my portfolio was not diversified enough with bearish positions. So, to protect against some short term downside loss on my longs, I sold the premium. So far, the strategy has worked well as the 14's are almost worthless now. But I agree never to trade the VIX as a profit strategy in itself. We've been reading your blog for awhile now but this is our first post. Thanks for teaching us to be better traders.
OTR Trader

Goog is making a move

Jeff,
I am in many puts which have been profitable during the last few days yet there are some that have not reached their price targets. With puts would you use the same strategy of holding until you reach the price target or until it breaks a new resistance line drawn teh way you have taught for calls?

JEC and SGR look like sweet entries today.

Stocks:
Just entered back into BGH, looking for a bounce, tight stop set, small risk.

Also entered into GME and PCR. Look for both to bounce. Tight stops as well.

Options:
Long: MMM, VDSI
Short: TTEC

Also like BPHX, Thanks Brett!

Anu-

Think of an upside down call for your put plays.

liz

Hi Addicts,

Check out the nice bull flag on AMAT. This can be regarded as a strong stock that didn't suffer last week. Looks like it may be ready to break to the upside soon.

John

If TSL can get some volume behind this move, it's a no-brainer flag breakout inside a major cup and handle.

...and JASO has the same setup in the same industry.

Andy,

Great point. Selling these options is one thing buying them is another. I think that there are better hedges out there than going naked on these, but that is neither here nor there. Naked puts on the VIX is better than being naked on any other index. You are a lot closer to zero.

Thanks Liz.

Everyone,
What about a nice bear entry on AMG? Looks like an easy out at 125 if wrong. I like the gap up today on low volume.

Rd

FSLR what to do,,,,earnings tomorrow and i only have 1 contract so i cant take some off,,all or none,,hummmmmm

sue

Thank you Liz

Raimo ,,,where are you,,,been waiting for your reply to PP's great work

sue

TDW making a nice bounce. Sitting just above diag and hor spt in the $69ish area.

Scoot

Sue - Sell and run...that's my .02

Kim

go, TSL, go.

Keep a eye on broker's and materials

Big breakout on SIGM.

Addicts,

I know this might sound crazy, but if you're like me and you think the bull is still alive and well, and you're very long in your portfolio, consider hedging with some DIA puts. This really could just be a bounce and could get sold off again. Expecially with the Vix falling, they won't cost as much.

Just an idea. The correction could be over. Then again, the bear market could have begun too.

What's the deal today ... Everyone feeling sorry for the PUTS .. they're all up .. some astoundingly ... I took profits on several and looking for more .....

Brett .... You wrote that while I wrote my last post ... I'm looking seriously at the DIA puts .... GREAT GREAT suggestion ....

Thanks sir! And by the way, the kids are worth working for ... Looked great on those shirts ...

SIGM - Flag or cup and handle, whichever you prefer. Breaking resistance today.

Joel R.

Sue,

i am here, but need to spend more time on charts, research and trades right now.

sue,

Chip and Raimo, they do plot
to find a name that they have not,

so be patient for their reply
because this time it is do or die,

for they have bragged about detection
of my name, but now, with reflection,

they wish they had not been so bold
because now they are left out in the cold,

and with no Phantom name to report
Raimo is composing a witty retort.

PP

Brett or Jeff,

When you hedge with DIA puts, do you prefer to go in or out of the money? OOM and risk the whole premium or ITM and leg out if the market shows more strength? I'm leaning toward OOM and buing a few more contracts. If the market tanks, they should do very well. If not it won't be too damaging (with proper risk management). What do you think?

Joel R.

Brett,
I agree that caution is needed here. Even if we are heading back up, it could be a choppy ride. I am going to shop for some puts tomorrow. I think some things may have moved to a point of better entry. Jeff will hopefully have some good plays to consider, too.

Good Day, All.

Michelle

DId everyone get a good look at BPHX today?

Thanks Brett for BPHX.
Also, whoever suggested SIGM last week...thank you!

Amy

Hi Amy,

I'll take credit for SIGM last week. I get'em right every once in a while.

Brett, I hopped on BHPX earlier in the day. Looking sweet at the close. Thank you.

Joel R.

Love the poem PP!

MARKET ANALYSIS

My disclaimer is that no one really knows WHAT'S going to happen, but i'd like to offer my analysis. Obviously we were all expecting a bounce and perhaps that's all this is, but:

SPY big harami candle at 145 support on better-than-average volume.

DIA harami testing support at 132.

QQQQ harami also testing support at 48.

Vix BIG bearish harami.

That's the good news, and we should be happy with it. The bad news is this: The bears are flush with cash and will sell the $#!+ out of the bulls' much-needed follow-through day tomorrow. The Vix is still 21 and could easily rocket higher.

Nothing is certain. I'm still bullish, but another sellof wouldn't surprise me.

Hope someone gets some value from this.

Thanks for that Brett,
I have been spending a lot of time analyzing the indices and drawing lines and such (probably more than the stocks.) I am trying to train my eyes to see things I missed in the past.
Oh, I held on to GLDN (cup and handle) and it is moving up off support.

Michelle

Brett - I like your analysis of the overall market charts. I was actually going to ask you how you feel about taking on new bullish plays on days like today? I'm inclined to take a wait and see approach unless I'm seeing something that is an easy out. I think I'm skittish on the bullish and the bearish side.

Tks, Kim

Rambo,
I now know who the Phantom Poet is. He gave away his identity when he let slip that his initials are PP.

If you want his last name, you're in luck,
It's not Henry, and he don't drive no truck,
He's a great poet, I'll admit
and he has a sharp wit,
But his name (are you ready?) is Peter Puck.

I had heard that he was looking for a new job. I used to watch him on Hockey Night In Canada when I was just a wee lad. And you know what?... he never EVER did any poetry on the hockey show!!! Huh, go figure.

Hey, now that I've figured out your mind bender, how about a little bit of info. Have a look at JWN. I was up over 100% on this puppy until today. I'm still convinced that this is just a standard re-tracement, but I'd love some other input on it. I lost over half of my profits today, but I'm convinced it'll rebound. What do you think? I'm still working on my exits on stuff like this and I have to admit after the big sell-off of last week I was tempted to take this one off the table. As you can see it's had a great run this past week, and it just looked like it had run it's course. But in the "let winners run" (and losers... and if you have any, I'd let the whiners run too. You're better off without them) philosophy I try to follow, I figured I'd hang on and if it showed some weakness, I'd get out. Well, today's gap didn't give me that oportunity and here I am.

Open to all suggestions (unless Brett just tells me to pound salt. Our pool is a salt water one and I've pounded all the salt I can stomach.)

Brett.

Good analysis....BUT

Did you factor in the burritto.philly cheese combo play?? H,mm?? did ya??

Chris,

I took profits on JWN when it hit support. I re-entered the put play at the close today. It's at horizontal and trendline resistance.

Raimo, the burrito play is worthless. I'm done with it.

Chris,
I did end up taking my profits on JWN today... I had a 52% return, but at one point last week I was up 140%. It was upgraded today by some analyst (I forget who) for whatever that is worth, and it showed a little bit of strength on Friday. It seems like I have a habit of letting my winners run too far at times... I'm trying to keep close track of when this comes back to bite me in the @$$!

Chris, Goldman Sacks anaylst upgraded JWN to a buy today, that is why it gapped up.

Brett,
I didn't have the trendline resistance drawn on JWN--thanks for pointing that out. I can clearly see that it is sitting right there. I'm thinking I should have taken my profits on 7/26 when it touched support (according to what I have drawn). Keeping in mind that I can always get back in later if another entry point presents itself.

Brett and Lisa G,
Thanks for the input. There you go... two very different answers. That's why I'm such an Option Addict. There is no right or wrong answer! Unlike my work. Upside down is wrong. Upside up is right. End of story.

In hindsight I think I should have taken some off the table on Friday as it was losing steam. But I guess if the market had been down today I would have been thanking my lucky stars that I didn't sell. Lisa, I think that you'll find that the net/net result is that letting your winners run, in the long run will win you more battles than what you lose. It's like going to the casino and playing blackjack. There are certain combinations that you just don't mess with. You won't always win... but when you do win it far out weighs the losses you take when it doesn't work out. I'm still in, as I agree with you, Brett, in that I think it's pretty close to support. If it keeps going up tomorrow, I'll bail and take my now 40% profits, roll them into a ball and buy some BPHX or something. Although I'm getting a bit stretched in the call department. Time to look for a put or two.

Hey speaking of GS (as optionfanatic just did) it just bounced off a pretty strong support level of $192 today. I hate them for upgrading JWN, but this one's worth keeping an eye on. Jeff once said that it tends to mirror the Dow pretty closely, but to me it looks like it's ready to head back up to at least $230.

Chris, I enjoyed your analogy
but I can't support the fallacy,

that the one who is called PP
would play a sport as crass as hockey,

so I must repectfully decline
your diagnoses of this name of mine,

and when you claimed me as Peter Puck
I refexly said, WTF!

PP

Editor's apology:

Please substitute reflexly in the last line of my client's (PP) last poem

Anonymous--I think you meant "reflexively"?? Not sure that reflexly is a word either...
Sorry! 3rd time is a charm...

Anyone who thinks the phantom poet ISN'T Jeff is just plain crazy. I've been calling that one forever.

Chris on GS I,m ready to start adding to my position once it starts giving back on my investment. I bought last Friday on the bounce. I think this one has legs.

Brett,
Nice looking OA boys. I do suspect they do know all of the key card sequences in Rounders, and can quote Irwin M. with the best of em?

Also thanks for all of the good looks today.

What would you suggest if Earnings is one day and the conference call is the next? Can you use the first day as an indication of the second?

Any takes on this questions.

Cheers,
CC

Brett, I consider you in the employ
of Raimo, who's friendship you enjoy,

and I think your recent Jeff comment
was a particularly loyal attempt,

to assist Chip and Raimo in the quest
to single out PP from the rest.

Chris, (or anyone in JWN)

I suspect Brett answered your question on JWN?? ...

JWN was upgraded, but the chart is the chart..If you got out today, I think a mistake was made. Again, this boils down to rules, and what yours are. When JWN broke down early July, was your target a 7pt move? If it was, it hit that last week. THAT was the time to exercise your rules...take your profits, or half, or 75%, or whatever your rule is. Now, the stock has moved back up to it's resistance area, and instead of selling here, you should be thinking about buying here, or letting the stock bounce lower..the trade has not gone bad, has it? Although Brett bought more here today, I did not. I am looking to to get in, but I need to get a better price than Brett, so I will be looking tomorrow...


Anyway, my two coins worth.

Rambo,
Your need to beat Brett makes me think that PP may in fact BE Brett. Hmmmm. Too much competition, here.

Brett. We all know PP cannot be Jeff. Poetry takes brain power. Brain power requires oxygen. Gravity sucks. How much oxygen can be making it to his 6'7" brain? It's gotta be all used up by this options stuff. I think his head has to be running a trifecta of Intel Pentium XXs. I don't see enough being left over to cover poetry.

PP,

I'll work on one, but wanted to take the time I had and try to help other bloggers first...

Now I have to go do family stuff...

When i have time, trust me, a response will be forthcoming.

I am the Phantom Poet, I write to myself, LOL...

Competition with Brett!!! LOL

Now THAT is funny. But we do share the same crystal ball...

Whoever said it up there about GS. Be careful on GS. When the market heads down, that one bleeds bad. Jeff alerted me to this fact a while back when I had quite a bit of stock in it. I got out with minimal loss, thank God. Anyway, keep a close watch on it. It moves well -- BOTH ways.

Michelle

Jeff,

After reading the posts on the VIX options I couldn't help but think about selling VIX puts. The fact that the prices seem to be high and you can't get called out seems too to good to be true. Is this a sound strategy or am I completely off base.

Dan aka VA Beach Girl's husband

who needs the comedy channel when we have the blog!!

sue

Raimo,
In regards to your JWN comment above. Point taken. It always comes back to rules... Something else that has become more apparent to me recently is that I don't always have a solid target set for taking profits, unless I'm playing a breakout. When I do the analysis before getting into the trade, I look at the chart and come up with what I think the potential move may be by identifying the next level of support (or resistance), but don't necessarily have a hard and fast rule about when I will take the profits. This is something I need to work on going forward. Thanks for the insight.

Dan,

You can get called out. However you don't settle as stock, you settle as cash.

If you can find a way to free up the cash, rock on!

Or if you must trade the VIX, learn about futures. You have greater updside there.

PP,
I have been watching this battle for a while now and enjoying it immensely. I was not interested in discovering your identity, but for some reason now I am. So I am off to eliminate the unsuccessfully accused and then I will make my educated guess. I think I have found a clue unintentionally left.


Cheers,
ARTY

Need your thoughts for a call on RIG. It has been bouncing off a 25 MA since March and is sitting on a nice support level. Stellar fundamentals. The only kicker - earnings announcement on Wednesday. What say you?

Barbara

I feel like I'm stuck. I watched the first hour of trading this morning and was looking to enter either POT, FCX, PCP and a few others but saw the market struggle to stay positive and figured I'd wait til later in the day. So I went out, came back at 2:30 and see that the train had left the station without me.

I feel stuck because I am sitting mostly in cash and not sure which way to go. Lots of my put play ideas seem overdone and I'm a little skittish about entering long calls here and now. Even the spread trades I looked at earlier today don't look good (either no money or too risky). What's a trader to do???

Forgive me for whining...I just feel like my timing is off on this market. It's like dancing, and drumming too....if your timing is off, it's a train wreck.

Maybe tomorrow....

DG,
A couple I think might be at good entry points are:

Long: JNPR

Short: IDA

ARTY

Doji Girl,

First off, good job. Nothing wrong with sitting in cash when you are indecisive. My early mistakes were made when feeling like I HAD to trade because my money would not make me money if I was not trading. Overtrading is def not good...so don't feel like the train left without you. There are LOTS of trains. They are constantly leaving the station. That is something else I wished I had learned early on in my trading.

Secondly, don't trade the market, trade the stock....I pay attention to the market, but remember, and yo uwill here it a lot here..stocks make up the market, not vice versa..

I took CME (long)while the market was tanking...why, because I had a buy signal according to my analysis, irregardless of what the market was doing.

Patience....look at the charts..

DJ,
I took a few entries today (mostly small stock plays.) I did some studying and analysis this weekend and had a whole list that I was watching today. OIH is right at support. So if you are interested in any energy plays, NE is right at support. And I've played AAPL the last couple of months. It's been a good mover and pretty steady. I show 140ish as a level of support if you want to look at that one. I have been looking for bearish plays and haven't found any I'm comfortable taking a trade on. I seem to always enter those at the wrong time, so I am watching for entries I feel good about. I hope some of those help.

Michelle

Logan,

Re: Your earlier post on craft breweries.

I passed through your neighborhood this weekend on my way to Hood River for a couple days of windsurfing Saturday and Sunday.

Walking Man Brewery (http://www.walkingmanbrewing.com) in Stevenson, Washington is wonderful craft brewer, with great selection and quality. I tried their Hazelnut Brown Ale this weekend and loved it. You can buy a growler to go. Give 'em a try. You won't be disappointed.

DJ,
Also GLDN I see a cup and handle. And I entered PCU today. I see support around 109/111, so it's not too far off of that. I'm sure somebody (maybe Jeff) will give us some good bearish plays to look at to balance things out. I have a good amount of my portfolio in cash, too. Like Jeff said, the earnings season can be choppy, so cash isn't a bad thing to be in.

Michelle

Just to start a new educational topic here.

Support and resistance. I have been looking at various entry points on stocks, and I see support and resistance very differently from others entrys.

What defines support and resistance? Do some of you use one or two candles that perhaps opened and closed at a praticular price point, or a more valid TRENDLINE that a stock has CLEARLY bounced off of more than two or three times?

Raimo,
I'll go first... Using Michelle's most recent example of PCU. I drew horizontal support around 109. Top of the candle on 7/12 (close, not the wick), connecting open of candle on 7/18, close on 7/27 and open on 7/30. I try to be consistent with whether I draw from wicks or bodies and I look for at least 3 touch points/bounces. Same when I draw trendline support/resistance. Thoughts?

Arty,

Good luck!

PP

Lisa,

It all depends on your rules, and style of trading. I look for support/resistance bounces for entrys, or pattern breakouts. Candles for me are nothing more than clues, and I dont use a few of them over a few days to determine a trendline..

On PCU specifically, I did not get in here, it does not meet my entry rule. PCU has HZ TRENDLINE support at 95 (it broke out on 7/2)but is currently about 10pts away from my diag trendline. If I bought today, I would not have bought close to my exit, and I am not willing to let my trade fall that far to a support area to see if it holds. If PCU conitnues to run up from here, oh well for me, there are plenty of other trades that meet my criteria, offering me a better risk/reward outlook. I won't chase a good trade, I've gotten bit pretty hard trying that.

Jeff,

This is VA Beach Girl here vowing that my husband, aka Dan, WILL NOT be trading the VIX options. I've just finished whipping him into shape.

Kim

Raimo,

I agree. I golf a lot and I have swing thoughts for each shot. My most common trading thought is, and I quote someone here that I have forgotten, " Don't feel compelled to trade but avail yourself to the compelling trade". There is always another trade that is as good a set up and that fits your rules better. One of my rules is I don't trade ugly patterns. If there is a post on the blog suggesting a certain stock and I do not understand the set up, why should I trade that stock? Trade the patterns or the set ups that make sense to you. An ugly pattern to me is perhaps one that makes sense to others on the blog but I just don't get it. I stay away from those regardless of who posts. If I do not understand the entry, how am I to understand the exit? Anyway, just my $.04 (I am conceited and think my input is twice the normal value). LOL

Raimo,
I didn't take the trade here, but would probably have considered it if it started to bounce up a little more. Looking at it as a support bounce.... But, I think I see your point. Even if I were to use the 109 area as support for my exit area, it is already 3 points above that. Therefore, making the trade more risky. I see the diagonal support line that you noted. In other words, you would wait for an entry closer to that line in order to get a much better risk/reward? Thanks. I appreciate your feedback....

Sean,

Very well put. Wish I would have said that!

LisaG.

As a matter of fact I AM waiting for PCU to pull back to a good entry, one that meets my risk/reward and entry point. I don't chase trades, and an entry here does not meet my rules.

However....now I am getting more curious..and this is a great way to learn...

If you did take PCU today, where is the support bounce, what is the target price, time frame, and exit price?

All good stuff here, great way to expand our knowlege!!

I bet the PP, aka ____, LOL. would agree!

Okay. Maybe I can add a little here, since it was a trade I took. It is more of an investment than a trade. I did a search of CANSLIM stocks (good fundamentals and uptrending -- there's a list that they have to fit to be in this search.) Anyway, I am looking to hold onto this for months unless it breaks down. It is a small stock position. My exit strategy is if it closes below 107. Trying to give it a little room while keeping my loss at a certain percentage for my account. I see the stock moving an average of 5 to 7 points a month in the last few months. So I will evaluate it as it moves along. Hope that helps some.

Raimo, your input and ideas are invaluable to our learning. Thanks for taking the time to help us.

Michelle

Raimo,

I am following your thoughts on PCU... would DRYS be in the same boat? I entered a SEPT50 CALL today seeing support at $55. With your example, I guess this is really half way in its trend channel with real support around $42.50. Did I get it right now?

My price target is $65+ in 2-3 weeks.

You guys have a good evening. I'm calling it a night. Marketcast is funny. Jeff and Eric drawing stocks out of a hat. They are so entertaining.

See you guys tomorrrow.

Michelle

Oh, Bob, one more thing. Could you look at GLDN and give me your analysis? I see a cup and handle, but have trouble figuring where you measure from to not only get in the trade, but measure the bottom of the cup to where? Where the line goes across, where the handle comes back up? Anyway, just like to see what you think.

Okay. Okay. Good night.

Michelle

Raimo & Michelle,
Thanks. And thanks to Sean for reminding of the "compelling trade" quote.

Re trendlines and support, I draw the lines in using the bodies of the candles and try to draw them where they touch as many points as possible. I also leave the lines in extend mode and I often find that months after the stock either breaks trend or soars above it, those lines still act as support/resistance on the back side. I agree with Lisa's horiz. support on PCU and I also have a long term diag. support which comes in at 107.5.

Just a quick comment before the sandman comes and dusts me up for the night.

DRYS I've been in for a month and am up almost 100%. It's going places for a while. But the volatility on it is almost off the scale!!! An ATM Dec call has $1.60 of intrinsic value and costs $10.60!! that's just nuts.

Michelle, I like the setup on GLDN. $60 (ish) has been strong support for a while now, and I see this as a re-test and it's now set to reach for the stars. But it's volatility is 'way up too. Options are rediculously expensive. I'll pass for now.

PCU is setting up really nicely. I don't have a problem that it looks a bit early for it. I don't think it'll pull back much more (if any) and I think the risk is worth the reward. And it's volatility is way down, right now. Unfortunately no one has told the market makers. These options are outrageously priced. Rats.

So there you go. Just call me Mr Grumpy Pants. I'll keep my money close to my chest and buy me some OA Gear.

G'night.

PS.
I just had my nightly chuckle by reading the disclaimer at the bottom of the page again.

I love that.

Calvin,

Yes, I see it the way just pointed it out. But again, it depends on your style of trading. For me, when I am putting my money at risk, I want it to be as minimal risk as possible. Still waiting for an entry that fits my style on DRYS, and I may not get it....but even so, there are other trades out there. ALEX for example is closer to support for me in the same group as DRYS, but it must close above 54 before I get in (look at 5yr chart)

Does this help?

Raimo,
To answer your questions:

As I look at this more closely, I guess a support bounce hasn't really occured yet. I was looking at 109 as an area of support--and although the stock is at 112, I would not call this a true bounce. I see a problem already--if it does actually start to bounce from this area, my exit (which would be around 109) is now too far away to manage risk accordingly.

2. Based upon prior movements the stock has made, I was thinking a move of 5-8 points over the next month. However, prior high was around 115. If it doesn't take the high out, my move is now only about 3 points. I see this is not a good risk/reward.

Now I am thinking that I wait and see what it does over the next few weeks. Maybe it does pull back to a better entry point, or if it takes out the prior high I can use that as my potential exit price if it decides it doesn't want to keep going.

Does any of this make sense or is my thought process completely warped??

Thanks for taking the time to do this exercise with me! I am just now starting to do live trades here and there, but still doing a lot of paper trading to try to figure out what my trading style is and to really refine my entry and exits. The feedback helps a lot.

Michelle,

I see the setup on GLDN, but way to close to earnings for me, and C2 is right, the IV and pricing, yuk...

LisaG,

Nice.

Here is a thought...instead of defining your entry point, define your exit, your line in the sand that you would get out. Then, buy as close to the exit as you can. I approach a lot of my trades this way...get in at the exit...if you can.

Raimo-

Go to bed. We have a busy day tomorrow.

Raimo,
That makes perfect sense.... I will definitely keep that in mind going forward as I approach new trades. Again, thanks for your help.

Brett,

What else is new, LOL. Did you catch Cramer? GOOG...BUY BUY BUY...

Raimo

I love that! Buy at the exit.... How'd you get so smart like that? Impressive....

Jodi
Canuck

Raimo and all -

This discussion about PCU and others was perfect. I was very interested in PCU as well and in fact Pam brought it to me as one of her picks. I just going to look it over and pulled up the blog first and so glad I did. What got me was the resistance at 115 I had not seen that and you are so right that that makes the Risk/Return not work out. Either it drops for a bounce (exit touch) or it rallies for a break out (again at exit). Either way works for me. Thinking right Ramio?

Thanks this is some of the best education I have received!

CC,
I just read your comment about the disclaimer at the bottom, I knew it was there, but thought it just legal junk. I never read it until now, thanks for the direction.
Jeff, you are very funny!
Kelly

A Poet who claims to BE,
a Phantom with the initials...PP?

AN enigma HE wants us to see,
though a truly a MAN as common as we

If Raimo and I give up his name,
will he still give ALL his GME?

Many think they know the real ‘he’...
Raimo and I SAY it’s not me!

Many he is KNOT: Chris, Brett, Benton, Jeff, Logan or Arty
The only thing we do know...is that he really is VRY farty!

I DO not name those of THE better sex,
as he is not a she, unless he is an X

Not yet will we ID him,
although he does look kind of slim

So regarding all this fuss,
and Raimo the better rhymer between us

So PP another clue I reveal,
ah...what’s the Big Deal ?!

KSS PP goodbye,
for soon with ROP we will TIE

This little fantasy one guy tries to heist,
About being a PP...a Poetic Poltergeist...?!

C2...upside down is only wrong if your landing ;-)

you guys are cleaver with this poetry!!!! i am ever so impressed with the lyrical talent....jeff why don't you publish an OA poetry book, the best of 2007

Michelle....do you really see a cup and handle on GLDN?? Just to get the same laugh i got, pull out to a 2 yr chart and it looks more like a set of lop sided saggy boobs that need a fix job...it made me lol...like when my brother and i used to lay in the driveway and make shapes out of the clouds....

Brett thnx for your market analysis...personally im still nervously bullish...we will see in the next few days/weeks...i think i will go low profile on the trading for this week....maybe pick up a few good ones, there are just so many good bullish entries right now !!! dang it!!

Doji grl...did you look at the AMG spread trade i posted either last night or this morning ??? i thought it was a good one...it is bullish on the 5 yr chart, pulled right back to support...someone had posted it as a bearish trade today, but i see it as bullish....i am looking at RIMM for a spread also...the credit is good for 17 days (even though the margin req is double)...well take a look and decide for yourself....i am going to sleep on RIMM and decide in the am.

have a good nite

Chip and Raimo, I am sorry, but it is late
your reply will come but accept your fate,

which is to post options that appreciate
and not to be one to officiate,

this fued we have, it is poetic
but Raimo, no response, it is pathetic,

I have worked minutes on this verse
are you alive, are you in a hearse?

what is your problem, why no retort
I assured everyone, he is a good sport,

but to sit at home in So. Cal.
with not even a whisper to your pal,

The Phantom Poet whose name you seek
which you will not find, you are too meek,

so go ahead, exclude from your party
the Phantom Poet, cause now you have Arty,

to help you in your very last chance
to see if you can possibly dance,

with Brett, Liz, Michelle and with any luck Dan
who claims to be VA Beach Girls Man,

and find out with a huge disclaimer
that Raimo and friends are huge flamers,

who seek the company of this Poet
I was an Alter Boy and they know it,

they are after my prize possesion
that I admitted in confession,

I truly love it, I'm not a fairy
and I wear it almost daily,

I pray to the heavens it is not wrong
it is my Option Addict Thong,

and when I modeled it to my wife
she screamed you are the Poetic Poltergeist!!

PP

I'm tired now. Good night!

Wow! I missed so much today.

All the poetry flowing around...I was always much better with free form. And after having children my brain only does multi-tasking.


Anu & Jeff-

Thanks for the thanks.


Raimo-

Support & resistance... When I feel that I may need a little help finding a clearer picture of support and/or resistance I turn my prophet chart to the line drawing function and draw my support and/or resistance lines and then it's back to candles.


Tonya-

I've been eyeing RIMM myself.


Well, thanks to all for the wonderful insight today.

liz

Liz, I do the same thing with the line chart and then back to candles. Kindof feels like cheating but all is fair in this battle with the market.

Hello Everyone,

Battle poetry is on. You guys crack me up all day long.

Thought I'd chime in on PCU. This stock held up remarkably well last week. I think if the broad market doesn't go down, this stock moves higher, it's just a brief consolidation around $110. That is until the semi-annual mining strike occurs. It would be nice to see one or two more up days before jumping in.

Having said that, I did jump on FCX today. It's been in a beautiful channel for the last four months. It broke above for a couple of weeks, but last weeks pull back was only enough to bring it back into the original channel. Every time it touches the 30 DMA it bounces higher. Maybe this time, it will break the century mark.

Interesting article on the subprime effects on the financial companies (GS, BSC, LEH, MER). There may be quite a bit more downside to these stocks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afHmD6FZ2Wpw&refer=home

Good night all.

Joel R.

Ramio,

The discussion you started on PCU was great. It addressed alot fo th entry issues I have been trying to get a handle on.

Brett,

When you got out of JWN which support area did you use. When I look at the chart I see a support area at 47 which I can identify short term and on the one year chart. I ask because I am really working on where to take profits. Sorry for being so redundant but JWN is a great opportunity to learn. It is also interesting that on the bounce back it is this area that we stopped at least for today.
Maybe old support turned resistance?

Anu

Anu-

My target was $40, but i had support drawn in around $41.75. Sometimes when i get a sharp move in my favor very quickly, i take profits and play for a bounce higher to get in again.

GOOD MORNING !!!

Futures are up......placing a lmt order for RIMM...hope it fills !!! smells like today will be a great day !!

My arch Nemesis I am really sad
You are not acting like an Olympiad

I am saddened that you sit and wait
Wondering when my next poem I create

I have more important issues at hand
Did you trade ingersollrand?

While the markets are crazy and we look for direction
To poem or help bloggers that is the question

You accuse and prose almost rant and rave
Me, masturbate, Oh behave

I’ve chosen the path to help all my comrades
While it is you who plays with his gonads

So if my responses are too slow for your taste
It’s because lately my time I have little to waste

While you sat and waited for a poem from thee
I was piling up cash with CME

I got in with Brett as GOOG was the trade
More money I see is gonna be made

So please do not sit and wait for my words
For you that must stink like a pile of turds

The time is coming your exposure is near
And we expect your denial as you hide in fear

Pay attention today and buy on the dip
And if I were you I would hide from Chip

Tonya,
I looked at AMG - the spread is over $1 for most strikes. I traded that bullishly last month and got whacked when I exited. As a spread trade, same thing. Example: Put 115/120 is .40 bid, 1.25 ask.

Once again the real world is intervening and I won't be able to pay too much attention to the markets. Maybe it's just as well I have nothing much to watch.

Good luck to all today...will check in when I can.

Where do y'all head for financial news? I usually read the Yahoo page but is there something better?

Also, I am looking for some good put plays. I think I need to train my eyes to see them a little better. I don't have a problem with the calls or uptrending stocks, I bought GOOG yesterday, YAY!!

Thanks for any insight.

Elaine

I would like to talk about something that I rarely hear on the Blog. Something that we all are a victim of is Theta. If you look @ your position statement and under the column Theta you will see a total of i.e. -100.00 that means you are paying 30x -100.00 =-$3000.00 a month. That means you have to make $ 3,000.00 on your plays that month to break even. Now take the stock TSL if you buy the option you are paying 78% in implied volatility for the front month with a Theta of 11.00 per day, that’s $310.00 a month. Now with volatility that high why not buy the stock and sell the front month. The stock is @ 62.00, sell the Aug 65 call and collect $265.00. If you get called out you have collected 565.00 and the +11.00 a day in Theta is not that bad. Remember there are only 17 days left in the month. If you don’t get called out sell the next mo. I know I’m preaching to the choir but I just wanted to share this.

Jodi,

it was nice to see you posting again,,

sue

JCI

look for the bounce here...

OF-

Options are all about risk/reward. I would guess that Jeff's Theta is probably over 5,000 on any given day. Buying TSL stock is not a bad idea. However, you could buy 8 calls for $5,000 or buy 800 shares for $50,000. I don't need to rehash the percentage differences if the stock rallies fast and quickly. If the stock runs to $100 over the next 2 months, how many people who own the stock will say, "Damn, I wish I bought calls instead?"

Theta is just another one of those vines you have to slice through as you navigate this jungle.

But I'd like to reiterate that in certain situations, buying stock is a much better idea. Where the bid/ask is highway robbery or the stock is cheap enough that you can accumulate enough shares, or even if you're expecting a move that could take 6-months to a year.

TSl, however, is taylor-made for options, in my opinion. It moves like lightning and it could really fly higher.

Tonya,
Which Strike are you in for Rimm?

ARTY

Hey guys,

Know what I love? CROX.

OF and Brett, good discussion on different strategies. In the short time I've been studying options, I've come to one conclusion -- there is no free lunch. Every strategy has it's ups and downs.

Trading directionally by buying naked options generates a lot of negative THETA, but those who trade this strategy generally exit quickly if something isn't moving in their favor.

Every strategy has an up and a down side. As of yet, I haven't found the strategy that lets me win in all cases. If you guys find that, please let me know.

Whoever posted up there about Kramer, I thought that was a scream. He probably got caught holding 540s before earnings and is trying to unload them. That's what I would be doing if I hadn't cleared my account. I look for it to head up to around there and then either stay a while or come down when all the unhappy campers unload their Septembers. After that, I will consider trading it. That GOOG thing just looked like market manipulation to me. I haven't been around enough to know, but.....

Happy trading today,
Michelle

Anyone think GSF looks good after earnings if it responds well?

ARTY

Elaine,

I look at Bloomberg.com and briefing.com for news on the big picture. Yahoo financials is good source for news on individual stocks.

Scoot

SGR - JEC - TSL

Feed me.

Brett,
For those of who didn't play yesterday, do you think 12.00 is a good entry for today?

Cheers,
ARTY

Dow is pounding up against 13480. If it breaks thorough could be a great ride up.

ARTY

Raimo,

MMM What is your opinion on this play not moving with the broader market. I'm considering bailing because of it's lack of conviction.

Kim

Brett,

I follow the logic. There are so many times when I get a 50-80 % return in a couple of days and I don't take profits and they turn into losses. I will start applying what you wrote as well as what Jeff has been teaching all along to see how to more effectively exit these winners. Like Chris said yesterday there is a real balance between letting your winners run and taking profits on them so they don't turn into losers. I had a put on BXP which I entered on 7/26. By the close of 7/27 I was up 50%. Today I am down in it 5%. I had a target of 90 and it reached only 92.75. I debated getting out yesterday but stuck with my rules. Now I will try to modify the rules to capture the fast moves which can reverse quickly too.
Thanks for your help
Anu

Damn! GPI up 11% this morning. Sitting at resistance though....

Kim,

remember stocks DO NOT always move with the market. They are their own entity, and move as such.

What was your plan going in on MMM? Target, time frame, exit plan?

MMM fails as a bullish trade for me if it closes below $88....which it may very well retest...

Also, I was expecting a 4 pt move from its breakout, which it achived.

Raimo,

Got into MMM in what I believe to be a quick exit if it doesn't move my way. I see the exit more at a close below $88.50. It's just annoying to have the only thing I bought yesterday not participate with everything else. I agree with playing the stock and not the market...I'm just pouting.

Kim

Raimo,

good one. Worth the wait!

PP

Kim..

Will a bottle of Reisling help, LOL??

hold your line in the sand...give MMM some breathing room..lets see if our line holds...??

NOT letting you off the hook PP...still after you, LOL....

There's always a reason for some riesling, my friend! lol

I'll give it some breathing room.

Kim

Brett, As always I appreciate yor take on TSL. Have you checked out the implied volatility on TRLG. I think a take over could be in the making! P.S I have 35 positions and I have a positive Theta. I rather be on the otherside of the counter exspecially in this Market!

NO X excuse me! Maybe the stock?

OF-

I've been calling for a takeover of TRLG for weeks. Who knows if it will happen? I had stock in this company for awhile, but sold on the last selloff.

Great discussions again today.

OF, 35 positions wow! I just looked at TRLG based on your post and over 100% IV amazing. As I am not as skilled at this how do you determine this could be in play for a take over from high IV? Is this part of your trading rules or evaluation in selecting a stock?

Thanks again for the education!

Bret,I'm still sitting on it with a loss, but I hope not for long. I also own the stock.

Bob & Pam, I believe the Market Makers know something we don't.That IV. says it going to move,the question is in what direction?

Does any one know what's up with aapl. I can't figure out why it's down so much. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks, Debbie

OF, thanks. Do you do high IV searches for these or just some upon them.

On BPHX, I did not get a great fill yesterday as I was not able to get in until near end of day. Then I was stopped out on the run down this morning. Brett, I am planning to wait again to end of day to see what the action is but it still looks interesting to me as it is right at support for me. That old buy at your exit concept.

AMGN. Take it down.

Brett and all JWN owners.
Bailed on JWN today as the good news seems to be sticking (sort of like checking when pasta's done... heave it at the wall. If it sticks it's done. This good news is sticking, so JWN is done.) I think I've learned something from this. I got out with a $500 profit (about 40%) but it could/should have been higher. I think the discussion on this one has been spot on. If you get a fast runnup (down) in a week, take some/all profits and wait for the inevitable retest. If it doesn't retest, gather around the table, pour lots of scotch, get some pretzels, cry me a river, and move on.

Held CTV over earnings (oops... EARNINGS!!! Catherine, why didn't you tell me earnings were coming up?) Survived that OK, but now it's looking a bit anemic.

KIM and CTV are killing me today, while DRYS and SLB are my saviours. In the interest of not having another JWN, I'm going to sell REG today as I've made nearly 200% on it and it looks to be in the same boat as JWN. Big drop and now it's heading back up to it's support around $70. Help... I'm losing all my puts.

Step Invest... I love your three trades. Of all of them SGR seems to be the one with the most potential for the least outrageous implied volatility. I'm busy trying to buy some calls right now... but like REG, the spread won't close.

I just took down puts on MCK. Trying out the strategy of buying near the exit. My exit is 58. Bought when it was at 57.80.

Small position. Still mostly in cash. We'll see how it goes.

Thanks Jeff and Raimo for the guidance on this strategy.

Debbie,
This is what was posted on Yahoo Finance...

"Apple shares took a 3% dip Tuesday amid speculation about a cut in production of the trendy iPod-inspired phone. The chatter that sent the stock down was that Apple was reducing its production of iPhones from "9 million units to 4.5 million units," according to a note from Miller Tabak & Co."

Debbie L.

Chris,

Interesting perpspective. I added to JWN today.

Bob & Pam, On the Thinkorswim platform you can scan for High IV. stocks under the scan Tab. I just happen to own TRLG when the IV. went up.

Chris and Brett,

I see JWN as a re-entry today. I have it at a resistance line and so far the candle is bearish; close to filling in the morning gap. Will wait till close.

Anyone hold UA over earnings?

Glenn

Brett,
Ya... "interesting"... that's me. I thought about keeping it, but earnings is coming up in a week and a half, and about $47 is pretty strong support which it blasted through this morning. I know, I know, I know. It's still morning. But to me... with earnings coming up I just thought "I want out." So out I am. I do not like green eggs and ham.

Can anyone explain why, when we're looking at properties, it seems manditory that we start looking at stuff that's 50% over the budget we started with? Just spent a couple of hours looking at million dollar properties (which we could only afford if DRYS goes to $2,000) and they're not even nice. The 100 acres would be nice but that's a lot of nothing to have staring you in the face while the coyotes try to eat your horses. This is harder than figuring out exit strategies.

Brett,
What is your target on AMGN? $52 and then to the lows on the 5 year chart?

I am looking for some put plays to balance out my calls and spreads.

Thanks, Elaine

Elaine,

My target is somewhere in the high $40's, but if support gives way at $52.50 it could fall further and faster. I just bought a little more time and we'll see what it does.

Thanks Debbie,

Ilooked around 10:30 and that news wasn't there yet, guess I should look back more often. Debbie H

OF, thanks again. I need to get better at using the TOS tools.

C&C, 100 acres for under a million, sign me up! In southern CA you get <1/4 ac and mid sized house for a million but pricing is moving down now so maybe more like $800,000. I need to move...

Bob (and Pam),
Bring wine. I don't see your "I'm Bob, and I'm late" tag around your neck today? Turning over a new leaf?

Hey Chris,

Come to Arizona, the prices are falling and the Coyotes are skinny.
Lot's of jobs at USairway.

Glenn

Glenn,
Thanks for the tip. US Air (LCC) tried to bounce but can't bust through $35. I think it might be time to buy a put or five in it again. Earnings were just out last week and there's no good news on the horizon.

There are rattlesnakes and scorpions in Arizona. My pearly white skin would get sunburned and my golf game sucks. I'm playing today at 4:20 for the first time this year. Must buy balls (not gonads, Rambo... GOLF balls.)

C2, LOL....

TSO is bear flagging beautifully. Maybe even making a poor mans "hanging man" - a really poor man....

Stephan,
Beeeeewwwaaaaaaarrrreeee the earnings next Tuesday.

Chris,

Its only 9:15 am here, but you mentioned Rattlesnakes, now I'm hungry, umm umm barbecued ratller! That alone will make you want to move to the desert.

I'd short LCC more, but the bass player in my band works for them and gets mad at me when I short the stock.

Glenn

Chris,

I have the answer to your question about looking at properties at 50% over budget. At my house it goes like this..."Well, I know our target price was below $500,000, but yesterday we looked at that house for $600,000 and if you were willing to consider that one (which you must be because you looked at it with me) then it only stands to reason that you might like this $700,000 cutie that I found today......grab the check book honey, lets go".
Does that sound familiar or is it just me?

I had pretty good luck with earnings this time: AAPL, CROX, DECK, FCX, MTW, POT. FCX didn't do much of squat, and POT didn't do a whole lot more but the rest rocked.

Before AAPL decided to jump off a cliff this morning I was pretty much back where I was before the market dive last week. First task = get some puts in place.

I've been reading but not writing since about last Wednesday. Between work and trying to figure out how to best put my portfolio in place to make a comeback, I haven't been able to do much else. God willing, I hope to be back in business. Though, I guess it is time to get back to work...

Oh yeah, question ... anyone thinking of holding GRMN through earnings? It is my last stock with earnings upcoming - tomorrow before mkt open.

Best wishes to all.

James H.

damn, thanks chris.

brett, thanks for AMGN. the puts prices are awesome. i just paid .19 in time value.

Looking at my bearish watchlist. Do you guys see JWN resistance at 50?

Michelle

GOOG is limp, flacid, inept, incompetent, weak, worthless, useless. In short...it SUCKS.

If it were on my team, it would be benched and forced to serve water to the real players. It would sleep in a tent in the backyard. It would be a fluffer. A bagboy.

GOOG, get your head out of your arse!

AAPL

Look at the chart..where do you see it's trendlines? Where do you see it pulling back to? Where do you see definite support? Where do you see a low risk entry??

Brett,

Come now. I just gagged on my lemonade. It is spewing out my nose all over my damn keyboard.

You kill me buddy...

GOOG - all those ticked off people who got busted are trying to unload. They are still out there holding and hoping it moves up so they can make their money back.

M

Brett,

Awesome. Without the laughs on this roller coaster things wouldn't be the same.

ARTY

Hello all -
I haven't posted in about a million years (okay, maybe only a thousand). Life's been getting in the way. But i've been trying to keep up with all you bloggers. You've all given me such encouragement - and laughs!
I still won't be able to post a bunch, but I'll try to drop in & say HI! as often as I can.

Has anyone been watching MER? I know Jeff mentioned it a while back - I just noticed a ginormous double top that confirmed a few days ago by breaking below 78-ish, & looks like it's trying to retest the breakout today.

The intermittent blogger,
Pat

Because I hate GOOG so damn much, i'm going to go out and call this a head and shoulders top on it. There, I've done it. Now die, GOOG. Go to $450 like you want to you miserable little girl.

Disclosure: long GOOG.

GOOG..

I can speak for Brett and myself here....we unloaded GOOG for 200% profits the day before earnings..then got in again at the recent lows..so we are frustrated with it now, LOL...

Chris, thanks for noticing...I ditched the meeting I was supposed to be in this morning as I am waiting for a banker to get back to me for a meeting today on a business loan. So I am trying to keep my schedule open to meet with him.
Ramio, lemonade and keyboards don't mix well. Probably time to get a new one. I think you should buy about 10 at a time for this occurances and let us know who you buy from, could be long opportunity.

James H.

I sold 1/2 of my GRMN and plan on holding the other 1/2 through earnings. I hope it works out....

Debbie L

Brett,

GOOG a "fluffer" for the G-rated audience perhaps we should say Fluffler Nutter.

I stated some time back that I used to trade GOOG and made mucho dinero, but in the last several months it has not moved like a good growth stock should.

Glenn

A comment on Apple, NOT the stock, but the company.

I have an iPhone. I dropped the iPhone and it was dinged and scratched. Totally my fault.

I took it to the Apple store Thursday night and told the guy, "Listen, it was my fault and I'll pay for it to be repaired. If there's ANYTHING they can do to fix it, please do."

I got a service iPhone, which synced perfectly with my computer. It was like having my own phone!! So I didn't have to be without the phone, as many have commented.

Today, my phone came back. My brand new iPhone. Brand spanking new. With a nice note from Apple that all repairs were free of charge.

Can you believe that? What a great company.

Sean M,
That's exactly how we bought this house we're in now!!! We went from no mortgage to $250,000. "So how big a leap would it be to $500,000?"

"Where are the gonads now, big fella?" Go big or go home.

Glenn. I can hear my stomach rebelling already, although I've heard rattler tastes like chicken. What instrument do you play? I played drums in a band at a place that I worked many moons ago. We were all the entertainment they could afford. Doji Girl would have howled at the moon... I was awful on my rented drums and my inability to keep a beat. I can't dance without stepping on a few dozen feet, so drumming is far beyond my mental abilities. But I was all we had.

Debbie L.,
We are holding half of GRMN through earnings as well here in Boise.

Cheers,
ARTY

As far as Rattlesnakes go, I found myself face to face with a timber rattler on Sunday evening when I was fly fishing.

It helped me to understand the difference between Fear and Reverence.

I knew where it was, and what I would do if it moved closer. I was reverent.

And they are great eating.

The two bearish trades they mentioned on Marketcast last night, MCK and BRY. Is BRY a double top and MCK a head and shoulders?

Michelle

GLDN making a move. I see a cup and handle with a 15 point move in the next few months.


Michelle

Chris,

I mainly play guitar, but will double on keys as needed. I have worked with a few drummers that were "a beat off" here and there.

Rattlesnake is good, try it you'll like it. I also heard that scorpions taste sweet like lobster.

Anyone ever encounter issues with Investools earnings dates being incorrect on the charts?

Glenn

Jeff,
Why is the spread between bid and ask on the XMI so much?

Michelle

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  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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