Anyone have thoughts on MCK? Although 58 seems to be holding (barely), the volume on the retest has been large. Seems like an upday in the market might bust back through 58.

Jeff,
Looks like BRY is doing as you predicted the other night on the marketcast... Fell nicely through that $37 level...

JK,
Thanks for the help this week and even after my stubbornness with taking profits I sold half my puts on BZH and I holding the other on the call from the Bankruptcy golden child, Eric Utley.

And yes I sold GRMN and CROX on the open!

It should be noted I am holding HLYS till my $19 price target.

Cheers,
ARTY

Past Pick Of The Week, HWCC falling and with HUGE volume.

Great call on GRMN
UVSC? What year?
We don't remember you playing.
Wolverines Fan

Anonymous,

I walked on for Hunsakers first year. I had to quit the team right around the start of the regular season when we found out we were expecting. If you have been a long time fan, it was Jim Hanchetts last year there and Ronnie's first.

test

There's no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you'll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?

Looks like the Russell 2000 $RUT or IWM (the ETF) is about to break through long term support around 770.

Joel R.

Stewardess, are you telling us everything?

No, we're also out of coffee.

Aaaaahhhhhhh!!!!

Joel R.

Striker, listen, and you listen close: flying a plane is no different than riding a bicycle, just a lot harder to put baseball cards in the spokes.

I'm not sure. I haven't seen anything like this since the Anita Bryant concert.

I dont know how to fly a plane, but next week I am going to hump this market like an old college babe, no offense to anyone..apologies up front...I know this is a family site..

Ted Striker: Mayday! Mayday!
Steve McCroskey: What the heck is that?
Johnny: Why, that's the Russian New Year. We can have a parade and serve hot hors d'oeuvres...

anonymous,
Yes I know how to fly a plane, but I sure don't know dick about picking stocks!!!

Thanks Jeff. It is "One of those days" today and I have no one to blame but myself. After spouting all day Monday about only trading "sure things" I went out and got me some speculative "not at their exit point" stuff yesterday. And they're killing me today (except for the lone contract I picked up in GRMN.)

Do as I say, not as I do.

I am a moron, and my name is Chris.

C'mon Rambo, I'll get the yeungling and we'll go mix alcohol and ammo. I feel the need to take my frustrations out on some innocent inanimate object. Beer cans work great.

C2, LOL

My trades are okay here...it's just that I am a bull at heart, not a bear..

H,mmm was that open mouth insert foot? Flame away on that..

Rambo,

I am with you if you want to go after Rogue.

PP

Doctor: Whats the problem son?
Me: My tecnical analysis is not working.
Doctor: Where does it hurt the most?
Me: In my SGR, TSL and JEC. They felt fine yesterday morning.
Doctor: We are going to have operate son. Cut them out completely.
Me: I had a feeling. Will I ever trade again?
Doctor: Probably not.
Me: HUH?
Doctor: Oh, I thought you said will I ever watch 'Dancing With The Stars' again. Anyways, yeah, youll be trading by opening bell tommorow. Good luck
Me: Thanks Doc.

Over Macho Grande? I'm afraid I'll never be over Macho Grande.

Joel R.

Step,,Very good, lol..

Addicts,

IWM is as near a $76.25 support level. I see the next support at about $73.5. I also see good volume on downside movements. Can anyone put another set of eyes on my analysis?

Dan

Hey,

I called the VIX top at 26.30

I really do not want to revise that...

Bears are pissing me off...

So what happens when a company declares bankruptcy? I'm assuming the stock stops trading. Can you actually still sell the puts you bought? Who would buy them?

MikeH

Haven't posted in awhile. Been in a wrestling match with OX that removed live quotes from my account about 2 1/2 weeks ago. It's been ugly but should be back now.

IBM is sitting right at diagnal suport and been on the plus side all day. A good entry point where you can place a tight stop.

I think the S&P is going to go down to test the MArch breakout at 1419. (Of course one heckuva rally started when I started to type this)

Jamie

Dan

I agree with your analysis on IWM and I also see support at about $75.

Scoot

Step,
glad you are ok. I thought you were a gonner.

IWM

I am short already IWM. It is at a support area now, if it breaks, I suspect it will intersect a diag trendline and a very weak HZ trendline at about $75...

Andrew,

I have my line in the sand at 58.50...It has gone through that in the last 10 minutes. The volume is giving me little reason to hang on to this as it seems to have conviction behind it's move.

Amy

The S&P bounced very convincingly off of support at 1440 and has rallied 20+ points in 50 minutes. It is also trying to finish at the high of the day.

Raimo, it's better late than never for those bulls you called up!

Scoot

Sorry...above comment was for MCK...

sean - im a fighter. thanks for all the prayers.

Raimo - you mention support for X - is this a put? I had a H&S pattern, which it broke down through. Sorry I can't find your previous blog on X to reference back - so many and not enough time in the day.

Brett, Raimo, anyone - how are you playing options (purchasing them) with such high IV. If you are purchasing options now, weather a call or put, are you not concerned with a IV drop?

Happy Trading to all and to all a good night.

Christine NY

Goodbye CROX. After all the time we have spent together and the special way you made me feel, I hope you write or call. We will always have this summer!

Unbelievable .... the FED must have thrown some money at the market.

JK,
Funny. I remeber Jim very well before he went to OSU, and still talk to Ronnie. Just don't remember seeing you on that team.
Thanks for all you do and your advice it really helps new traders such as myself.
WF

Can anyone explain what just happened? 45 mins ago the Dow was down 39 points. Now it's up 172.

I am dazed and confused. "Shock and awe" is about all I can muster. Raimo, you done it, man. I can hear the stampede all the way out here in Calgary (which would only be natural, as the Calgary Stampede just wrapped up.)

i am out of MCK as well. i am ticked that i sold my OIH put vertical. i had my line in the sand a close below 74. it was pretty far below 74 30 minutes before the close, now it's way above. dang it!

otherwise, not too bad of a day. i'm holding CMG and CROX. I have septembers so i'd like for them to run a bit, please.

Christine,

If you buy fairly deep ITM options, there won't be much time value (i.e., IV) to worry about.

Andrea

P.S. This is my first post that actually posted without a glitch. Thanks again for the help, Jeff!

Holy cow Rambo! How many bears did you shoot??

All I can say is WOW!

Debbie L

Christine,

X..

Yes, i was short, sold my puts today..x was a great trade on the H&S..as a matter of fact, that is EXACTLY what a H&S looks like..

Hey, where in NY..I am originally from Long Island!

Rambo,
Next time you go bear hunting give me a heads up, okay? I had just finished loading up on bearish plays and it's like Mr. Market said, "ok, she's finished...let 'er rip!". So I managed to turn what was a mildly profitable day into a ridiculous loss. All this in about a half hour! Sheesh.

My name is Chris and I am no longer a moron.

I have been upgraded to Village Idiot. Wooohoooo!

Scoot,

the bears did not like when I brought out the big guns..

And i hammered the Roguemeister!!

C2...too damn funny

I am sorry DJ...

But I did give warning...said I was going to let the bulls out, and I did bring out the .454 casul to shoot the bears..

DG
I feel your pain. A day like this just boggles my normally boggle-proof mind. I can now only call it "boggle resistant." Perhaps we should let some bulls loose and call it the "running of the boggles." My day was the exact opposite of yours. I sold SGR after losing 60% in two days on it and was contemplating just ditching everything and teaching Oragami classes at the local retirement home. Very luckily I left everything else alone and I ended the day neutral.

I don't know how much more of this I can take, Captain. Oh wait... I'm the captain.

Holt snikeys batman! Wear did all the bears go? Nice work Raimo.

For the love of God am I glad I sold my Russell Puts before the Bulls took back over.

I just do not have the energy to give you and Airplane quote.

Boy I picked a bad week to quit drinking Yuengling!

Couldn't help myself.

Cheers,
ARTY

Brett..

WHERE THE HECK ARE YOU?

I suspect Brett had a part in the bear killing today.

Chris, congratulations on your elevation to village idiot. My village misses me.

Rambo,
Remember on Friday or Monday Brett warned us he was going for one last Burrito? Have you seen CMG over the last 3 days?

Un
friggin'
believeable!!!

I expect to see him crawling back in here, all covered in blood and bear guts and stuff. We'll have to call him Brett Crocket (as opposed to Bretty Crocker... which would probably be interpreted as a bit of a slam... unless he's into interpretive dance.)

Yeah, Sean. They called.

Although, today, it seems in vogue
to go after this one called Rogue,

We should be thankful he is buying
puts when our calls are defying,

gravity, its pull keeps us here
and Rogue is certainly not one to fear,

'cause when one is such a braggard
it is usually because one is a laggard,

so let's be happy he's buying such
options that we would never touch!!

The Phantom Poet

PP
I was going to try to compose something witty like that and the only thing I could come up with to rhyme with rogue was vogue. Well done. I bow to your mental superiority. I just gave up... my oragami class starts in 10 minutes.

Michelle,
I believe you are right in your guess on the identity of the Phantom Poet.

Just finished reading "When Genius Failed" ohmygoodness what a scary book!
Also just watched "Enron: the Smartest Guys in the Room". That pi$$ed me off since I'm in California & remember the #$%$#% blackouts all too well.

The key theme in both cases? Arrogance! Both groups of people thought they were smarter than the market.

Well, I know I've got no problems there! Us village idiots must stick together - right Sean & Chris?

Michelle,
Please do tell!

HUH, another rhyme, I just can't help it!

PP

IDIOTS UNITE!!!!

Sean,
If we all unite, then we'll be a village of idiots!! D'oh!!! Then no one would know who the Village Idiot was. C'mon man... think it through

Chris, you are so funny! Origami. What a hoot!:-)

Thanks for the AMGN tip, my lone put. I have a GOOG spread and CAT call. The two "little" stocks that could today.

Elaine

Laney,
The only CAT calls allowed around here are the ones directed at the Rogue thingy guy.

Hey Raimo,
Have a look at CAT (thanks Elaine.) Looks like it could be a H&S in the making.

By the way, did anyone notice the mohawk on the H&S of X? See... I told you a little hair on the top could go a long way.

Chris,

You are right about the Idiots uniting. But wouldn't it be nice to fit in for once.

Just a question. You oviously have a great sense of humor. Do you ever drop the oxygen masks out of the overhead compartments just for fun??

Sean,
Had a real hard landing once in a 747 (we were testing the auto-land feature, and it failed) and all the O2 masks dropped onto everyone's heads. They got pretty confused as we were on the ground... "but the guy says when the masks drop out you gotta put them on. Do I? Oh... oh... I WANT MY VILLAGE!!!" It was... shall we say... interesting.

oooh - a village on a plane.....

:-) Pat

LOL @ the O2 masks! Having just had 3 horrific flights I can totally relate.:-)

I thought I should clear up the issue of me posting with two names lest anyone fear I am a troll. My name is Elaine and so is my mom's name so I have always gone by "Laney". My blog is under "Laney" "and it comes up as such when I sign into google. So to make it easier, I'll just go by Laney here. Sorry for any confusion.

Welcome, Laney!

Pat

Thank-you, Pat. :)

Laney,

Welcome to the village. Chris is the head idiot and I am too! Actually, I am not nearly the idiot Chris is but I can dream. My last village called Chris but blocked their identity.

AAH...THOSE TRENDLINES!

I'm here. I was just trying to figure out how i lost money today. Anyway... today's thoughts:

-Looks like someone lit a "death to the Vix" candle today...

-Amazing how all markets threatened to sell off, yet wound up bouncing off trendlines today. Not all markets, just the: commodities, oil, semiconductors, transports, dow, nasdaq, s&p, russell, emerging markets and gold. The utilities actually are stalled at resistance, so they don't get to wear the party hat.

-Is the coast clear? I think so, but i'm holding my boatload of russell and dow puts just in case.

-I'm certain that Jeff makes money everyday. Not quite sure how, but that would make for a stellar blog topic. As in, "How Jeff made money today." A running blog. I'd enjoy that.

-I'm still wondering how i lost money today.

Good night everyone!

Andrea - I have been reading the past posts from Jeff regarding IV which states ITM options will yield the smallest % change (less of a return - if I am understanding this correctly). So, I am wondering with this increased IV in the last week, are more of your trading ITM or ATM and if you are playing ATM are you not concerned about a drop in IV in the next week or two which could potentially whip out profits.

Raimo - I am in Orange County, NY with the choppers - however I don't associate with them, but did catch a local paper yesterday showing the father's wedding pic from this past weekend. Is that really news which should be on the front page a the paper -I think NOT!!!!

Chris - We have a bummer sticker that reads:

Somewhere in Texas a village is missing an idiot.

We picked up the bummer sticker outside of Boston a few months ago and have been trying to get more ever since. It is soooo popular that they can't keep them in the store long enough for us to go in and buy more. LOL LOL LOL can't stop LOL. If you didn't get it read that one again until you do.

Happy Trading to all
Christine NY

Laney,

Great nickname. I actually got a kick out of it when I saw one of your first posts a little while back.
My wife's name is Alane. she is the youngest of 9 kids (yes that was a tough courtship for me). Her family all calls her Laney, as do I and some of her close friends.
Anyway, great name.

BTW, anyone else decide to hold BGC over earnings??? Anyway, I am still in at this point, I see support at $64-65 ish....we'll see.

was that enough "anyways" I just used there?

Hey guys, the IWM is getting hammered, retracing back to the March lows. If it penetrates $74.85 or so, the etf is in big trouble. The fact that it pierced the 38.2% level could signify an end of the uptrend.

Anyone trading the X bear flag from $109 to $98? If so, do you guys see strong resistance at about $98.50 and a price target of about $87.50?

I too would like a blog of how Jeff made money today, and everyday. Let's definitely vote on that.

Just finished listening to Tom Sisnoff on the Wednesday TOS Trader's Lounge broadcast. From what I gathered, he thinks the market will flatten out we will go sideways for awhile. We may have put in a bottom today. He said do not be long puts or calls because of volitility. (Just like Jeff has been saying.) Tom said do spreads to bring in big premiums, especially on the ETFs -QQQQ, IWM, DIA, SPY. He showed examples of double diagonals on the QQQQ.

I'm going to look into setting up some spread trades for tomorrow!

--Patti

I just listened to Tom Sosnoff on the TOS platform talk for about an hour about the VIX and how to trade successfully during this wacky time. Basically he said that if you are holding stocks or long calls or puts you will get whacked in a few days when this market stabilizes and goes sideways for a while because all the premium will be sucked out of your options. You should be taking advantage of the hi vol by selling premium as much as you can...either by writing calls against stock or spreading your trades.

He also thinks the market "blew it's brains out today" with the violent moves and should settle into a sideways motion.

Much of what he showed (like double diagonal calendars, etc.)was beyond my level of grok but the message was clear. Sell! (premium, that is)

Dumont slipped in before i could finish typing. Same thing, different voice. Hi Dumont!

Erm...I meant Patti. (I am SO losing it!)

Dumont -
Got into X right after the H&S break.
It's got some strong support at 90, so I'll be watching it closely.
I've got a target of about 87 for the H&S pattern. 85-ish if you count the Mohawk that Chris pointed out.

:-) Pat

DG,

I'm glad you were listening to Tom's talk - your explaination was way better than mine!!

--Patti

Well, I'm not sure it's going to help me at this point. I am looking at my positions and trying to figure out how to "spread" them. I don't get how I can do that since they are all Sept. contracts and there is no money to be had by selling the August ones against them. I need to study this more.

Here is what I'm not understanding and maybe someone who does complex option trades can help (Jeff are you here?)...

If I have a put on something and spread it by selling another put strike against it, I am now creating a bullish position (bull put spread) which is not what I intended since I bought the puts as a bearish play in the fist place. So how do I make this work?

"and dont call me shirley"

hey rambo...i went to cw post for a year before transferring to rutgers...now live in sf disco as the shadowtrader likes to say

brendan

VMI - has shown relative strength and has held its uptrend line.

DG,

I haven't had luck trying to create a spread on a strike I already own. You can look for a debit spread - a bull call- on your calls. See what strikes IT used for the August bull calls.

Spreads are best set 20-40 days before expiration according to IT. I prefer 20 days so that is why now is the time for me to set some up. I like credit spreads but haven't done many in my short trading career since in less volitile markets directional trades make alot more money.

Have you thought of calling the hotline with your question?

--Patti

DG-

Depending on the strike will determine if you are bullish or bearish. If you sell a strike higher...bullish (the stock needs to move in your direction). If you sell a strike lower, (the stocks doesn't need to move) this is bearish.

Is that what you meant?

I have noticed there a quite a few new bloggers so, in a purely benevolent manner, I have compiled some of the abbreviations that are used frequently on the JKB to help those new to assimilate.

WWJD - what would Jeff do.
WWJND - what would Jeff not do.
CC - clean cups- long story but look for a new thread on the blog.
C2 - Chris and Catherine
JKB - Jeff Kohler's Blog
WM - white mochas
PP - Phantom Poet
WDJBT - what did Jeff buy today.
WDJST - what did Jeff sell today.
WWBD - what would Brett do.
WR - Where's Raimo (not Waldo).
WTHIOWL - Where the hell is our watch list.
TFBWLIC - too frickin' big watch list, I'm confused.
VIP - Village idiot present.
Sean M. - Village idiot present.
Hammers - Catherine is near.
WTFWIT - what the fu** was I thinking.
ATM - always trading maniacally
ITM - I think maniacally
OTM - option trading maniac
CMG - The market is about to go up or Brett is soon to experience the burning ring of fire!
WWTVID - what would the village idiot do.
WIPT - what idiot posted that??
WTF - You know....."Who Traded Ford"
OMG - Oh MY God! Used while trading, even among the non-spiritual.
IWMM - I want my Mommy. Frequently screamed on 2/27.
WYD - Used on a gap up after earnings or after an aquisition.

Glad I could help blogsters. Feel free to add as we go along.

Sorry,

WYD - Whose your Daddy!

Pat,
What's a Mendocino Sunrise? I picture it as a cool drink in a tall glass, with some dry ice in it to create a volcano look and a paper umbrella. And it would be served in a gondola, with some jewel voiced gondolier singing sweet melodies as he paddled you down the river.

Am I close?

I, too, am getting concerned about the volatility falling out of the market. There certainly wasn't any volatility in today's market, huh? I'm thinking about closing out all my positions and tracking down the Doli Lama. Should be better than Raimo's dorky crystal ball. Besides... he has determined that the actual Center of the Universe is on a hill in British Columbia.

Christine NY,... is a bummer sticker a bumper sticker you put on a Hummer?

Sean,
Very funny but you left out one...
YMMV - Your mileage may vary or
Your Money May Vanish.

Jeff,

I'm not sure if that answers my question. I think so but I have to play with the numbers and strikes a bit. Here's my example... I bought the Sept.78 puts on IWM. If I want to take in some premium and maintain my bearish stance on this, I need to sell a lower strike (more OTM). So should I sell the August for 2 weeks left and then possibly sell the Sept afterward?

Also, if I am in a call position and want to sell against it, then do I need to sell a higher strike to maintain bullish stance?

DG,
You are absolutely right. How could I have missed that one. My bad (yes, I have teenagers).

C2

LOL - read it over before posting and didn't catch that part. WTFWIT.

Christine NY

DG,

There's an ATM Bear Put Spread listed under the August IWM option chain using your 78 strike. You'd sell the 77 strike for a -0.46 debit. Potential return 0.54 for a Potential percent return of 156.00%. You want IWM to be below $78 at expiration. If all goes as planned, you can roll it out to September.

Sorry, in my earlier post I somehow had it in my mind you were holding a call.

--Patti

Where do I find the TOS platform on IT regarding Tom Sosnoff's talk on spreads?

Thanks
Christine NY

Sean M.

VERY NICE!


Also, today's action...nuckin' futs!


Dan

Wow did any body catch the collapse of the bridge in Minneapolis, don't know how many times I've been over that, that was defenitly worse than todays wild ride in the market, lets all hope and pray that all are ok.....

Christine -
LOL - no, it's not a drink. Mendocino is where I live. In California on the north coast - great ocean kayaking!
But I like the drink idea - I should make one up. Maybe something with kahlua.

:-) Pat

oops - meant Chris.
The stock market melted my brain & I earned my village idiot badge.

:-/ Pat

Pat,
Congratulations on your badge. Welcome to the village. Our mayor (C2) will be with you soon. If you need anything, contact Sean M., the ambassador of stupid. If you need any trading advice, contact someone else.

Jeff -

An idea for your next Master's Talk would be for an in-depth discussion of IV. I think a lot of us are not as educated on it as we should be (I am not, anyways). What causes it? Who adjusts it and when? Should you be watching it while you are in a position (long or short) and why? Is each individual option's IV linked to the $VIX?

Just some ideas. Thanks for helping us all to become better traders.

Scoot

DavidS......are you out there??? remember a few months ago you were talking about 3 Brazil stocks ??? i wrote it dwn and miss placed it....if you remember their ticker, will you post it for me??

thnx

Christine NY,

To find the TOS Chat Archives go to thinkorswim.com and you'll see to click on the link in the upper right hand corner of the screen.

Once you get to the page, click on 'sort by date'. Todays chat should be up in a few days. July 25 is the latest one they have posted. There are so many great ones there, I'm sure you'll find some to listen to in the meantime. Each one is about an hour and a half long. As you will see, the older chats just have the transcript while most from this past year have chat and transcript.

--Patti

Sean,
Those abbreviations are hilarious! I can really relate to IWMM because my mom and dad are my trading partners and I stalk them via phone all.day.long.

Thanks for the laugh.

Laney

Scoot,
Not sure if you have gone through the archives on the blog, but Jeff has some great posts on the subject of volatility that you might want to read through in the mean time (until he gets to it on Mastertalk). I had printed them all off a while ago and just went back through all the material I have this past weekend. It helped a lot. Makes a lot more sense now.

I also have some notes from the Pricing and Volatility trading room that he attempted last year. Not sure why it didn't take off--I thought it was really good and got a lot out of it. Anyway, if you are interested in the notes I can email them to you.

You will see links to various volatility postings on the right of the blog. I can also let you know the titles of the ones I have printed.

Hope this helps.

LisaG,

I will check those links out. Thanks.

Scoot

Laney,
you are lucky to have your parents as partners. I have had many "I want my mommy days" since I have been trading. What I look forward to most is the WYD days. Good luck and welcome to the blog. This is a great and nurturing group. Jeff kicks out the jerks.

Has anyone explored the IT Forex site. I received a call today about FX courses and site subscription. I would love to hear the group's thoughts on the subject... especially BRETT or RAIMO... Is there an advantage to FX or is this an up-selling opportunity.

It is an interesting concept though... I could trade all night instead of getting into trouble for trading on the job.

I have become an OA.
Calvin

Jeff's macro-ing & Eric's option-ing. I'm so confused.

Scoot,
Jeff actually did an excellent readers digest version of volatility indexs on the world famous MarketCast last night. You can find that either in the right hand column of this page by clinking the MarketCast archives, or Itunes is you prefer the more Silicon Valley medium.

Mendo Sunrise,
Jeff and Eric were acting crazy like the markets. I found it to be quite refreshing......maybe some of their left ove cucumbers have fermented and they had too many.

Cheers,
ARTY

OA's,
Holy Slope of Hope!

With my FXY positions (If that counts as a short) and taking profits on all of my long option positions, I am left almost 90% net short.

I am not sure what to do? I am not comfortable taking any new positions at the moment. This is new to me. Any suggestions?

Cheers,
ARTY

Calvin,

I am not Brett or Raimo but I am all too willing to give you my opinion. I have been through the basic stock course, the basic options, the advanced options courses and advanced technicals ( which I did on my own). I too have been contacted by Investools to buy into the Forex trading. I must say it is tempting to consider a venue that trades 24/7 (almost) and that involves few trading pairs. It is not like stock or options trading that involves thousands of stocks and options. After my first 2 day course with Investools that I paid a lot of money for, I came away very enthused about the first day of training and very, very upset about the second day of continual upselling. I contacted Investools and was, at first, referred to "Legal". After many phone calls, I was eventually given some additional coursed to make up for my complaints and I was satisfied that the gang at Investools was sincere. I spent about 18 months going through the courses and taking extensive notes and eventually graduating from paper trading to trading with real money. When I was contacted by Investools about Forex Trading, I declined for many reasons. The primary reason, as you are now in the midst of, is that no matter what you choose as a means to "get ahead" the learning curve is so much more difficult than any commercial or pundit can convey. I was not willing to start a new learning curve and chose to stick with options as an investment vehicle. I really was adrift in trading until I found this blog. I still don't know if trading patterns and support and resistance bounces is for me, but I do know that trading alone is lonely, difficult, challenging and again lonely. My advice is master what you have learned and progress to the Forex when you are so bored with your option profits that you need a new diversion. I am not yet bored or even close and I have been at this for 2 years. I think I am just getting it. My wife hopes I am just getting it. She keeps saying, "where are the profits" because she already has many home project planned. This material comes at you fast with a lot of new terminology. Be sure to walk before you can run and when you are making so much money, be sure to give back to the blog. Then go master the Forex.

Just my $.02

Arty,

I am no expert that is for sure. But, if you aren’t comfortable, I would stay in cash if I were you.

However, remember what Raimo said yesterday, play the same game and let support and resistance be your guide. The duration of the trade is what may change. Possibly being more of a swinger than trender. There seem to be plenty bulls at support and many bears at resistance making the risk pretty easy to assess. It is the reward that could be a little difficult to guess for trending trades.

I personally am trying a little different approach. For most trades, I am going to buy at least two contracts on each position. If I get a real good movement in a very short period of time I will take half off and let the other go until it violates support or resistance. If the trade retraces/consolidates and heads back in the right direction, I will then add to the position and have more than one contract until the next big move.

All the while I am only going to be at or less than 50% invested and keep my position sizes in check.

I’m curious to know what others are trying in the whipsaw environment.



Cheers,

John

Wow, some people on this blog can be soooooooo verbose. Go figure!!!!

John,

I was implying I was the verbose one, not you.

Ok, I was early and now I am late. I have been reading contracts the joy of my life - NOT!

Too many great posts to reply to so I just say thanks for the congratulations but you have to "hear" the end of the story and there is no way Chris is the lead idiot as anyone that gets 200%+ on their trades is at least a WIT. I think that makes me a nit-WIT. WIT? Oh Wizard in Training, I see a chapter on Chris coming in a future Wizards book. Maybe they can interview me on the dust cover as I knew him when.

Ready for the rest of the story. Ok, let's pick up where I left the story. So I am on the phone with IT coach and I close out my one call on CMG, or so I thought. I run off to meetings and come back 10 minutes before close and see that my CMG position is higher than when I left. How can this be I wonder and TOS shows +2 contracts not zero! Yep, you guessed I had a mouse pointer mishap that resulted in a larger gain! So now you know that even my best trades are made....by mistake. King nit-WIT reigns with now 156%.

Brett, I think we are the reverse of each other. I may money only on the days you do not. That should tell me something.

"VIP - Village idiot present.
Sean M. - Village idiot present."


Good stuff, Sean...nothing like a late-night chuckle.

Dave

Sean,

No problem, I don’t get offended too easily. And even it I did and your comment was directed at me, I certainly can’t argue or get offended at the truth. Verbose… I resemble that remark.

Raimo,

You said the bears pissed you off earlier… The bulls pissed me off at the end of the day! I got out of three bullish positions today about a half hour before close because that was my window to close trades today only have the positions close considerably higher by the close at which point I never would have sold them… WHIPSAWED!!! It caused my day to end flat…

I have to start with adding myself to the "VIP" list or "Sean M." list.


Bob- Congratulations are in order even if it was made by a mistake.


You guys were busy today on the blog. I can't keep up.


Thanks for the info about TOS and past recordings. Very helpful.


Calvin- I attended the Intro into Currencies class given in Orlando at the Investools do dah thingy. I have to say... I LOVED it. It was soooo cool and the instructor was really good. The brief insight into trading currencies made a light turn on about trading options. It was as if it gave me another layer regarding options. Though, I do agree with Sean M. in that you need to get comfortable where you are now. It's a lot to take on and process. I decided that it's something I will do in the future after I'm VERY comfortable with trading options and making money hand over fist (MMHOF).

Maybe we should have an OA dictionary of acronyms.

Okay, I'm off to bed finally. I told myself I would be in bed a half hour ago so I'm already behind schedule but I just had to read through everything.

Thanks for all the laughs today and insight.

liz

All,

Thanks for the good laughs. Even on the days my account is down, this blog still makes trading one of my favorite things to do. Jeff, thanks for hosting us.

John Logan,

Thanks for your comments about your adjustment in trading style. I really appreciated hearing your ideas.


I too have shifted more towards swing trading in these volatile times. I only started learning about the market last September (my education being Investools courses, a bunch of the recommended books, this blog and 6 months of paper trading), and started live trading in mid-May. After going up 25% in the first two weeks, I then lost 40% in first few weeks of June and really had to pause for reflection. I realized it was because all I had known during my studies was a serious bull market. It was just my luck to jump into the deep end 2 weeks before the market started to change. And though I told myself that I knew how to make money in all markets, that was only in theory. I'd never had to put it into practice. Now I've had to learn. And what an education it's been.

Since my big losses, I've slowly but surely been rebuilding. And I'm now only 15% down from where I started. Here are my thoughts and what I've had to do to be successful in this volatile type of market:

-Remember, my first trading rule is Don't Lose Money (I bet most of you can guess what book that's from). Cut losses as soon as anything goes against me.

-I've been at least 50% in cash the past short while, and I only take THE BEST plays at THE BEST entry points. No trading sloppy like I got away with in the strong bear market. It's okay to miss trades. There will be more.

-If I get a significant move in my direction in a short period, I'll take profits. I'm not allowing my trades to retrace like I did in the clearly trending market because who knows where it will go in this crazy market once it gets back to support. (Again, this goes back to Rule #1 - Don't Lose Money).

-Really stay focused on where the market will likely go in the next day or two. Only enter bullish or bearish plays with that in mind (This has really been vital to my recent success. In the strong bull market, it was always going in the same direction. Up.)

-Remember, not making any trades is also sometimes the right trade.

-Use the same charting techniques I apply on longer term charts to intra-day charts as well. I've become a big fan of a 5-day, 15 minute bar chart to help me spot momentum changes telling me when to get in and out.

Those are some of the more critical keys that have served me well lately. I know it's basic stuff for many of the more experienced traders on here, but I figured since I get so much from you all, I'd at least give back whatever I could.

See you all soon.

Hans

Hans :)

Sounds like great lessons learned - shame most good lessons are learned the hard way ;)

goal #1 = Limit risk every way possible!!!!

hehe and dont forget the golden rule.... dont loose money!

Pete :)

Calvin,

I've taken the basic forex class, which gives you access to IT's forex site. Truth be told, I haven't quite gone beyond that yet but I plan to. The basic class doesn't teach a whole lot of substance (surprise), but you get to use the site. Same for all the other basic INVESTools courses. If you're going to be a trader you should at least understand how currencies work. I'd like to recommend it, but only after I've had a chance to take the advanced course.

h2d... nice to meet you. I saw your brother... r2d2 in a movie once. Some science fiction/space movie, I think. I think we're all learning how to trade this market and it's taking some of us longer than others. I love your and John Logan's idea a lot... in this market swinging is looking better and better. It's like an ad I once saw

*************** ATTENTION WAL-MART SHOPPERS*******************

HALF OFF SALE IN AISLE 3!!!!!!

Sell half your contracts if you get a big jump. Chances are that the market will reverse tomorrow. If it does... you can get back in. Hmmmmmmm I feel like a giant boat trying to turn 180 degrees. It's taking a long, long time... but I think I'm starting to get it right.

I see Brett's back home from slaughtering the Bears. Attaboy, Brett. Hope you left some Bull Bait out there while you were away.

Well, I'm now in Halifax and I've been up all night. I will commit my portfolio to the graces of the Trading gods until I wake me up. Thanks to everyone for their comments, insights, wit, and wisdom. Sean... you're in charge of the Village while I'm sleeping. Don't be an Idiot.

Although that would make you an outcast from the village, and then you couldn't be in charge. I can't handle this right now.

PS Bob (and Pam)
Where do I get me some of those horseshoes you have stuck up.... uh... on your door. I don't care how it happens... CONGRATS!!! These are the types of things that give you the confidence to move ahead. Analyse what went right and do it again. I shouldn't have said anything about the 200% gains... I gaurantee that most people on the blog have had some of them. The only chapter on me will be a tiny footnote at the end of a book that says "For the most bizarre trading style ever, refer to "My Life as a Trading Numnutz" by C. D. Brown."

Grab some of those profits of the table before some hungry bear comes along and steals them from you.

Sean M., Liz, and Brett... thanks for the input on FOREX. I have only been on the blog a short time and it is apparent that Brett and Raimo's input is held in high regard. That's the only reason I singled them out. Hope I did not offend anyone.

I will continue to investigate and keep you all posted. Tonight, I am trying to listen to Jeff's open house followed by an open house on FX.

CVS just reported a great quarter... net earnings up 114% over same period last year.

Wish everyone well today!!

(Note to self... remove Calvin from my will.)
(second note to self... find out who Calvin is... THEN remove him from my will.)

Calvin-

Tell that to my wife!

Logan,

Sorry you got whipsawed out of your bullish trades. My .454 casul bear gun was not enough, so at the end of the day yesterday I had to come out with some hi-tech heavy artillary. That did the job.

I tend to be bullish (my wife likes things on the rise, not the other way around, LOL), I had enough of the bears, had to rid them.

I sent Jeff a video of the equipment I used, maybe he will post it. It is my new BEAR TERMINATOR.

Did you get tossed out of your trades because of hard stops, or mental ones?

Cheers, the bear hunter

Michelle,

Take a look at X, then take a look at CME. The head and shoulders on X is perfect...look at how the trend previous to the H & S was clearly up and the entire pattern formed at the top of the trend. This is what I look for in a head and shoulders pattern. Hope this helps you see what it is I look for in this pattern.

Cheers!!!!!

Funny C2.... I am really enjoying this group.

I am Calvin from South Carolina.
38 years old.
Married - too long.. I mean 11 years.
Two daughters (4.5 yr and 5 wks).
Profession= manufacturing engineer (or at least until my job is outsourced)
Goal = become a successful professional trading.

Here's a pretty chart I just found...
CBEY - sitting right at horiz and diag support. Caveat, they release earnings after the close today. I am: tempted. Anybody care to comment?

This comment has been removed by the author.

DG-

I tossed out CBEY during the ascending triangle a couple weeks ago. That breakout failed. I see that as a bad sign, ESPECIALLY with earnings coming. This could be a bear flag.

CBEY has been one of Bretts stocks to watch for a while...this is in my opinion right now a risky trade.

At support, yes. Big run down on volume, now earnings. Do you really want to take a trade here? What is the strategy? Gamble?

The YEN fell to 117.60 to the dollar overnight, but has moved up fast since 6:00am. Now at 119.23. This could be confirming a great start to the day along with futures.

Calvin

hey all,
I've been lurking in the back ground and havent added any thoughts lately, but this group has been great lately. While we are witnessing a different trading environment that many of us newer traders have never seen, the wisdom of the more experienced, and everyones opinion together is a tremendous help.

long: jeff kohler and his blog

short: losing money

gh
long island, ny

Morning all,

Aussie Pete, a particularly early morning to you. I take it you actually are Down Under based on your posting time?

I've always wondered how many here are posting from outside the U.S. I'm not, but someday would like to be. While I make ridiculous trading profits sitting with my laptop on an empty beach in the Caribbean.

Good luck today, all.

Hans

DE - I see horizontal support
at this $118 - 119ish level,
and I like the trend is intact
in this market. But recent selling vol.? Can someone give an
opinion please.. Thanks! Beth Ann

Arty

Thanks for the tip on the Market Cast. I also found a reference in Jeff's book club to "Options as a Strategic Investment" which I promptly ordered.

I also read over some of Jeff's older posts. There is gold in them thar hills!

Scoot

Raimo,

Mental stops.

Raimo has many mental stops.

Just kidding.

Brett & Rambo,
Thank you...I was thinking sell an Aug 35 put for about $1. WOuldn't mind owning the stock for $34 if it came to that and it might go higher from earnings as it is a strong company fundamentally.

Beth Ann,

I really don't like the volume coming down of the recent high. Especially since it's been increasing on successive days. Safe retests of old support usually come with decreasing volume as you approach the level. Just my $.02.

Hans

Calvin,

I have been trading FOREX for some time now, I believe I was one of the early IT Forex students.

There are a few things you must learn:

While the FX mkts are available 24hrs, there are slow periods with little movement. Some of the best times to trade are 2:00 AM TO 4:00 AM est

The average daily price swings can be large and can easily whipsaw you out of a trade.

You have to completely understand Margin. It has been said that the overwhelming majority of retail FX traders wash out due to accounts being too small to counter the daily price swings and effects of over margined trades.

Having said all that, I trade the FX most days and I like it. Just practice with paper accounts for a long, long time.

If you want more detail, let me know.

Glenn

is anyone else not able to access the Interactive Chart on the Investools site? im glad this is just fake money i am using and the chart doesnt really matter anyways.

step,

I am using the chart with no problem.

Scoot

charts for me working fine. Try clearing your browsers history, delete files, etc..clear JAVA files in your control panel if using a PC

No problem with the interactive chart for me either.

Hans

Hey logan,

same thing happened to me yesterday. had a spread trade on OIH and my exit was a close below 174. 30 minutes before the close it was at like 172 and so i went ahead and got out. closed above 175. crazy. i'm still ticked about that one.

I don't care what cramer says. Sell the financials, he says. Fine. But GS, the undisputed best of breed, is at the long-term trendline AND horizontal support. It's been dragged down because of this sub-prime mess and it's at an AWESOME entry point.

Do what you want, but this is the buying opportunity of the year.

AMGN may be good entry/re-entry. Just retested yesterday's gap and headed in the right direction.

EGLE,

Dry bulk shipper. Gapped higher when they announced they were buying 26 ships from a competitor. Forming a pennant here before earnings.

I entered 7/24 with cheap Dec 25 calls. I know C2 and the gang love DRYS. Keep it on the radar.

Jamie

Brett,

I want to be clear....your crystal ball says BUY GS??

G..great
S..Stock

Love the chart,,,,

Brett-

Are you looking at this as a purely stock play for longer term?

liz

Jamie,
EGLE and DSX same industry and same pennant but DSX is already done with earning (today and excellent).

B...Bull
S...$%*t
C...Company

Will not follow!

I have tried everything and my charts will not come up. I fear my worst nightmares have been realized - Jenna Jameson and Prophet Charts cannot co-exist on my Mac. This is indeed a dark day.

Hmmmm...I see GS action today as a bear flag forming.

So now that this 'rally' is fading here is this the time to load up on DIA or IWM puts?

DG

I don't think this is a time to load up on anything. It is just way too choppy to pick a direction. I am watching mostly in cash with no intention of buying anything today.

Scoot

Anyone see LEND the last 2 days? I think we've got another going to zero.

JNPR was trying to break out this am. Good entry/easy exit pt.

Kim

Scoot,
I sorta agree. So far the only thing I did was sell a covered call against some stock I own looking to capture some extra premium like Tom Sos said, before it all disappears.

DG,
I think selling a CC is a good idea.

I am focused on the fact that the S&P500 is showing relative weakness versus the DOW and NASDAQ. Combined with yesterday's price action starting at 3:00 ET is making me very cautious right now. Somebody dumped a whole lot of money into the market to make that kind of move. Now suppose those same folks wanted to continue some buying support for the market. It would be much easier to support the 130 companies of the DOW and NASDAQ versus the 500 in the S&P.

How is that for a conspiracy theory? I gotta quit smoking that hopeium - I think it is making me paranoid.

Back to rule #1 - Don't lose money. This puts me on the sidelines but with watchful eyes until the market shows me that it has settled down.

Scoot

What do you guys think about OXM bear play? it looks like a long way down from the triangle.

Also retail, private label guy that should be affected by the poor performance of the retail sector.

David,
OXM - I see it fairly close to diag. support so I don't see it as a bearish entry here. I don't really see your triangle.

Jeff, I was wondering if we could have 1 day per week where we can toss around profanities on the message board to air our disgust for certain stocks in our portfolio. It is either that or I scream into my pillow like a schoolgirl whose crush hasn't called. I'm up for either.

Also, if TSL were a person I'd punch him in his lazy gut.

Okay, so my first attempt at a "real" spread trade has turned out not so good so far. Oh, well. Now I'm stuck with the second part of the leg that no one will pick up. At least it was only one contract. But still...

liz

liz. what was your spread trade? and why did you close out only one leg?

anybody want to give me some advice on TSL? i cannot think straight. brett, you still holding?

Step-

I've been in and out of that thing more times than the door at Chipotle. I'm in now, but $56 is my support level. I thought it looked great until FSLR blew earnings. Not sure what to make of it right now.

I'm glad I stopped out of MCK puts yesterday. Only a $200 loss (23%). For me, that's great!
I'm finally getting past the "I HOPE it goes my way soon" thinking. Moving right on to the "you lose money & you're FIRED!" thinking.
:-) Pat

clean cups!

TSL - my .02
Disclaimer - I don't have a position in it.

I agree with Brett that $56 is good support. Below that it looks to be $52 so holding below $56 might not be a good idea. Currently Intra-day it looks like it found some support at 56.50. It has been consolidating and looks like it is starting to move higher. Next levels of resistance right now looks to be 57.75 and then 58.25.

Hope that helps.

Scoot

Glenn..... I would love to talk with you more regarding FX. I had some interruptions last night and missed some of the FX OPEN House. They have what seems to be a good package rate now... 8mo site, 8mo trading rooms, and online course for $999.
They shared examples of how to turn a $100 margin into +$1000 profit in a matter of months. Seems like risk to reward pretty favorable.

What is the best way for you and I to discuss?

thanks

Jeff.. OPEN HOUSE... I had a really difficult time listening. I can't trade on the TOS desktop from work and there were so many details / confusion... I just couldn't keep up with the discussion. I may try to come back to the recorded version with less distractions and more focus on my part. It seemed TOM really stole the ball from you and did not want to pass it back.

Summary... I like your style better.