Took my profits on AMZN today. It has been up several days in a row. It is due a bounce.
Just something Eric mentioned on Market Cast last night.

Michelle

can you guys verify if we had 36 million contracts traded on LFG today for .75 Oct call

this looks odd to me

What do you guys think of DIOD today. Pulling back to its prior highs? Good REE entry?

I was looking at the nubers on LFG. can someone explain why the volume today shows more put selling than put buying. Is'nt this pattern bearish so one should be buying puts.

On the tos website the oct 60 calls show over 36 million in volume . wassup wid that.

Brian K

LFG - I checked Tradestation and E*Trade and neither of them lists Oct 75 calls. I see volume of 210, 87, and 5 for the Oct 50,55, and 65 calls respectively.

sorry i meant Oct 60 calls

Brian K is seeing something also

Jeff,

Good luck at the tryouts!
Amy

Jeff,
Awesome post. It's about time you proved that you're long on your longness. We've been long on you for ages. Nice of you to catch up. This is the type of quantafiable stuff I love to see. It gives me an idea of what can happend when you're in "your groove." I am feeling reasonably groovy myself. I'm tippy toeing around the market right now, but doing reasonably OK, sort of, kind of. But most importantly, I'm feeling good about it.

liz, I'll be watching for you and Grant on your Harley. EXM is still rockin' on. Don't know if it's time to take profits. I'm up about 85% and in this market I don't want to get too greedy. And it's way far away from it's REE now... so I'd say there's a good chance it'll pull back and mull things over for a bit.

Just pulled into Calgary after leaving Newfoundland at 3:50 this morning. Time for a nap.

Called Tos and they said 36 million for the LFG oct 60 calls is flat out wrong. They better get a new clerk for that specialist.

Brian K

Brian,

Looking at the 5 and 10 year charts shows that LFG has some decent support at about 45-47. So perhaps some people are taking their profits on their puts after a 16% drop in the stock over the last 3 days. I am just speculating.

mahmood, are you using TOS as well?

Jeff - You're right - you rock!! Congrats on the streak - this is way more fun than waiting on some stupid ole lottery ticket ;o)

Chris, welcome to Calgary! Be sure to re-hydrate, you don't want to suffer from heat stroke ;o)

Happy trading all!

Jodi

NUE...appears to be breaking out. I am not sure what to make of the candle. I know what it means, or at least I think do. I usually see breakout with long white candlesticks.
Any thoughts?

yes scoot and I looked in Yahoo and could not find the data so it looks false to me also

Tim (DIOD) - looks like REE to me ... 30 is my REE on that one...

Congratulations Jeff! I hope to eventually do as well.

Tim, Are you responsible for the programming that highlighted Jeff's comments on the last thread? I like it - now we can clearly see all his comments. Everyone, If you haven't noticed, go back to the previous set of posts and see it.

--Patti

Whatchya all doing about JCOM?

Looks like all you iphone holders will be getting a $100 refund to make up for the $200 price cut that you'll miss out on.

Scoot,

I found the answer out from my notes.

Thanks for the response,

Brian K

Jeff,

Just got back from Mexico. I was so glad to read your post. I wish you the best of luck on the tryouts. I know your dreams will come true. We will all be cheering for you.

Anu

Amy - the candle looks like a dragonfly doji at the moment which would be bullish. This is subjective, but I looked in Nisson's book and he was labeling similar candles this way. Regardless of what you call it, the fact that the stock opened high, dropped a fairly long way (compared to the size of other candles for this stock) and then rebounded to near the high for the day is bullish. And it is currently above resistance at $55 which is a good REE.

My .02.

Jeff-
Sounds like fun! We'll be cheering you on. And congrats on the win/loss ratio! That's so cool.

liz

what are you guys doing about TSL?

it has pulled back to support.

Michelle,

Congratulations on a great trade on AMZN. I bought enough time (October) to ride this one to where it's going, so hopefully it gives you another opportunity to catch the big move.

Are you really serious about the D leauge tryouts?

Mtngurl44

The iPhone rebate is a joke. I've called the Apple store and Apple itself, and both confirmed that you had to have bought the iPhone in the past 14 days.

I wish CNBC would get their facts straight before reporting it.

Jeff:
It would not surprise me that you could master basketball as well. Congrats on your amazing talent.

Does anyone see a good entry for ESRX?

Patti, yes, I added scripting and styling to make Jeff's comments stand out and gave him that little surprise today. He said he likes it so it looks like it's a keeper.

It's something I've wanted to do for a while. Glad you like it.

Thanks, Brett.
Yeah, I will watch for a pull-back and REE. AAPL is holding. I think it is going to go far. With all the stuff Jobs is doing, AAPL is going to make some money in the near future.

Michelle

Thanks, Tim! It looks great!

hello everyone. new to the blog but long time reader. what's up with that GLYT refference? joke perhaps? as far as i was able to research the stock it's not optionable. great example though.

Mckubajs

Lis,
on UA if you were entering on your exit and expecting a bullish pattern on the inverted H&S, I would not go below 7/31 lows of 60.87, prior to that I would also not loose 25% of my option premium.

Brian K

ESRX has rallied back up to/above resistance ($55) with a series of mini bull flags, options are farely cheap if you like this set up

DavidS, i guess we were reading each others minds, i swear i was just going through a watch list and i did not read your previous post before mentioning ESRX

In regards to Raimo's "REE"... If you look back to the thread on July 30, you will see that he started what he referred to as an "educational topic" within the comments in regards to support/resistance. There were some differing views going on... We walked through an analysis of PCU. As part of this analysis and his feedback, he made the comment about defining an exit and entering at/near that point in order to minimize risk.

I knew that was when the whole REE thing started, but had a hard time narrowing down the time frame to begin going back to look for the comments! Finally figured it out. Anyway, that may help those that were looking for some other examples/insight.

Jodi,
Thanks for the "howdy." I love it here, and can't wait for the snow to start tomorrow. JCOM looks like a great breakout, but there's no volume to speak of. I'd be careful.

DG, CVH is toast. 57 is my exit point and it's staying above that.

As the girls on the airplane say...

Buh

Bye.

Thank you LisaG, I was looking for it all through the long weekend and after i could not find it, I asked Raimo him self and he also gave an explanation yesterday

DG,
I stayed in CVH. My exit is slightly above 58.
I entered JCOM. The volume isn't 150%, but it is above average.

Great chatter today!
Thanks everyone,
Amy

CVH - I stayed in even though I don't like the looks of that candle. Tomorrow I expect a big down day (famous last words?)

NUE - I like the way that looks and jumped on it a few minutes ago. Good volume on what I perceive as a slow day.

Brett,
Wow, you must be into POT. If I put on my Picasso glasses I can sort of see a H&S on this one. But I sure don't see it as a straight or strong one. I'm putting it on my watch list just because you've obviously seen one like this that has worked. I'll watch it and pat you on the back when you make a grundle of dollars.

By the way, can anyone explain why my hair has decided that my nose, ears, and back is more fertile pasture than my head? I am sitting in front of a mirror here in the hotel and thinking I better do something about this or some gorilla is going to make me her Love Child.

Tonya:
We will see where we go with that one. Also I am keeping an eye on NM
for a break out cheap stock

JCOM - Had nice volume BUT it didn't break out of the triangle yet and it's too far from the support for an entry. Maybe tomorrow.

Tried to buy puts on DNB but I guess they didn't like what I was offering to pay so I never filled but might revisit that tomorrow.

boy the markets just seem to be right in the middle of their range. the vix also seems to be hovering in the middle. seems like they will break soon. the question is, which way?

Mahmoud,
TSL - I'm still in it and have been since it bottomed at 40 last week. It's making a perfect bull flag now with decreasing volume on the down days.

Amy - on NUE, I see it as an inverse H&S with at least a 9 point target, more if you count the long shadow from 8/16 which I am ignoring.

Chris,
Not too many comments on this blog make me laugh until I need a towel but I loved yours on your fertile pastures. When I go on vacation now, I scout out the most fuzzy guy on the beach and then my wife and I sit next to him.

Uh-Oh, my wife is not fuzzy, just me.

Wheeew.....luckily, she was not over my shoulder. I just turned 50 a few days ago and am bewildered why we lose hair where it should grow and grow hair where no human being should have it. Well, I am sure at this point we have grossed out the younger crowd! I do have one question though. Where do you buy your Speedo's and your sandals???

Tim-
I love what you did. Thank you!

liz

Chris-
I'm loving the ride on EXM. You must have gotten in at a better entry than I did. I'm up 52%. I am sure we're heading for some type of pull back soon but I'm going to wait for a sign of weakness before I bail off that Harley because if you jump off too early you could get asphalt burn and that sucks! I have a pretty tight stop though.

liz

Sean M.-
I can't relate to the hair growing in all the wrong places comment yet but Chris always cracks me up. I try to remember not to drink anything while I'm reading through the comments so I don't spit out whatever is in my mouth on the computer screen.

Oh, and don't forget to find out where Chris buys his white tube socks as well. They go with the sandals.

liz

Congrats Jeff. I always new you rocked. I'm still in OII and am up 87%!!

Liz,
Sorry, I forgot about the tube socks......only because I thought everybody wears them with sandals!!

Brett,
Maybe they have the story straight now. I think you can get a $100 credit if you bought your phone at full price. I would check now that the dust has settled. You may have a credit or some cash coming to ya. I read the story on Market Watch.

Michelle

When drawing lines for price patterns, is it best draw them using line charts or candlesticks. JCOM broke out using line charts. I didn't take the NUE trade because it is at resistance and does not confirm a breakout. My question is probably based on each trader's preference, but it is revelant today on the JCOM and NUE trades.
What say you?

I agree with you Amy, I would have gotten in if they would have accepted my limit order before close. I saw JCOM as a breakout with enough volume to suffice. I'm not in, but I will be watching to see what happens and maybe I will catch it on a re test.

Jeff,
If you are going to play D League I have a few connections with Idaho Stampede and I have two extra queen sized beds I can put end to end that you can sleep on till you find a place.

Cheers,
ARTY

Amy & Jodi-
JCOM had less than average volume today. It's even slightly lower than yesterday. But it has been moving up these last 4 trading days. Maybe more of a bounce than a break. (At least that's how I see it)


Amy-
As far as the NUE trade if you're playing it as a reverse H&S it popped slightly above the neckline with volume but it also bumped it's head up against a trendline support/resistance line.

I initially use candles and then if I'm not sure or I feel that I need a more accurate reading on the chart I will change the view to line, re-adjust the lines I've drawn and then convert back to candles. But I think you're right. It all depends on what you like to use whether candle or line or maybe a combo of both.

liz

OK, so maybe Jeff and I are the only ones that think that Monster Java is a game changer??

Well I wanted to tell a little story. If for no other the reason that to lift Jeff up even higher than he is right now.

So I roll into Jiffy Mart around lunch to grab an MJ. Well they are out so I saunter into my local 7-11 a few minutes later and they are out too.

Then I remembered that before I went to Utah last week they were out then too.

So I ask Mel, the owner, "What's up with MJ being out of stock?"

He tells me that he can't keep it on the shelves and he can't get more because they can't get enough from the disty. And that it is killing the Starbucks Frap sales.

I say to you Jeff thanks for the trade ideas, and thanks for the MJ!

Cheers,
ARTY

Jodi, Amy (and liz... if you care)
I see a bit of a jump today but volume is average only. I think this is simply a continuation of the sym triangle that's forming. My guess is that tomorrow it'll move back down and continue to form that triangle. About a week from breaking out, I think. But what does a hairy gorilla of a 50 year old know? The industry is great and the fundamentals on the company rock!

liz, I'm in the air all day tomorrow so I'm hoping that EXM doesn't decide it's the day to retest. I refuse to use stops, as I've been whipsawed out in the past. I may not rock, but i-roll. Things are perking along nicely right now and I'm abandoning ship (Heh, heh.... EXM... ship... get it?) for the last day of the week.

By the way. If any of you guys out there ever get the carzy idea that you can whip a guy that's 25 years younger and has played the sport you're going to whip him in within the past 10 years.... FORGET IT!!! I got beaten 3 games to 2 yesterday in 1 1/2 hours of gruelling squash, and today I can hardly move. It's a good thing flying airplanes just involves finger-tip movements and the odd groan.

So Arty... you're long HANS?

If I take back my comment about you and T-Bone and the whole lovin' thing... will you send me one, FedEx?

Arty, I'm in HANS, too. So far it likes me, it really, really likes me!

Lis,
I saw your question about Fibs on the last post, I use them quite a bit. I often have trouble seeing a target (unless it's a price pattern) and they really help me to get a clear picture of where support and resistance are. I watched a trading room with Alan Keate one time and he changed the numbers so that they extend to where the stock will go. It still amazes me how accurate they are.

What I do now is draw my own lines and then put the Fibs on to see how close I am. Now I feel more confident to use my own lines but I rely on the Fibs to confirm.

Also, if you are looking for your stock to go up, you begin the Fibs at the high and go to the low and the converse is true if you think it will go down.

Hope this helps.

P.S. if you want the extension numbers to customize your Fibs let me know and I'll shoot you an e-mail.

Arty,

I find myself in the same circumstances. I bought the entire shelf of them at my local supermarket when they arrive on Tuesdays. I do not care that I am robbing my neighbors of this wonderful tasting beverage. Recently I am trying to keep this reco under wraps. Since I saw friends and family with their claws wrapped around them, I figured part of the reason these drinks are disappearing is due to my constant talking about them. If this drink gets too popular, I might not be able to experience it in all its glory every morning like I do now.

PS- How cool is my new font? I feel so important...as if I need anymore of that today.

Thanks Tim.

PSS- I know how bad it sucks to listen to someone rant about themselves, so I promise only to do it every couple days or so. Today was a day it just had to be done.

;)

Chris-
Oh, I care. I think the stock looks great.

I didn't know that they let hairy gorillas fly planes. I thought they banned that a few years ago.

When I said I have a tight stop I meant a tight "mental" stop. ;-)

Well, my husband and I actually have a date tonight. Babysitter and everything. I've got to go get ready.

liz

Jeff-
I liked the round table discussion.

liz

Jeff

Why didn't your new Master talk 9/5/2007 show up in the archives? Are they haveing hicuups agian??

JEFF,

RANT AWAY BABY... It's your blog. Love what you do, just wish I would listen more sometimes. Took two trades today that looked good at work. I am up on both of them, but after further review at home tonight, I have set limit orders to get out tomorrow AM if they so much as go up at all from where they are now.

Do you every get out of a good trade because your entry left your risk too high..

TD

Jeff,
Yes, yes, the new font is cool beyond belief. It certainly does get your attention when you're scrolling through the page. Always nice to know when the "Master" has posted. Hey, you never answered about how you like your iphone. Are you finding it as cool as it was to start with?

So I guess if youse guys keep swiping all the MJs we'll never get them in Canada.

Sucks.

And blows.

Sean M... welcome to the over 50 club. The cool thing is that in just a few years you get discounts on little "Old folks Meals" at Smitty's. And if you fart in public, no one says a word. They just look at you with that "Oh isn't he so cute" kind of look. It's like being a kid again!

Tom D.
Personally if I get in at a bad entry I like to let it move against me for a while before getting out with large losses. But I am trying to improve that.

It makes it tuff to figure out when to get out. That's why it's called a "Bad Entry." Sort of like practicing stalls at 200 feet. If you manage to pull out... you're lucky.

Logan,
If you're tuning in today... I'm glad you stayed in FRX. I think I'd be thinking about taking what profits you have off the table as... to me... it still looks like the trend is broken, and in this market who knows what evil lurks?

Arty and Jeff....you guys are hyping this monster java so much that i am temped to try it, BUT i am way too HYPER without the caffiene....they don't even let me drink soda at work anymore...
well i'll back ya on HANS, but don't think i can/will touch the monster java, it will just make my eyes twitch....i guess that means more for you.

I guess I'll have to hunt down this Monsta Drink you're all raving about. Have you checked the calorie count?

The drink may be awesome but I am totally askeered of buying HANS. Here's why: If you look at a 2 year chart, specifically July 27, 2006, that is the day I, a new trader at the time who had heard so much about HANS and what an incredible stock, keeps splitting and going up, etc., bought some. A couple of days later the stock dropped 5 points. As a new trader with no rules I thought surely it would come back. The next day it dropped another 10 points!! So in less than 1 week I managed to lose 50% of a STOCK investment (no options at that time).

Now the stock is once again just about the same level that I bought it at back then. I'll give you all fair warning if I decide to jump in so you can all get out.

Oh Chris,

that look we (we being the young people of course) give when old people fart is not one of a "oh isn't he cute attitude" - trust me

Good luck Jeff follow your DREAMS!!!

Randy & Sue

Ok as long as this 50+ talk is going on...

Just a reminder to get your colonoscopy. I've got a couple years till 50 but I'm sure glad I had my 1st a little early.

Jeff thanks for information on OII.

Randy&Sue

Jeff, you have had success in almost everything it appears to me. This Blog for one, I just can NOT keep up anymore. If I had your record in the last month I would make a banner and hang it from my house! Congratulations my friend.

Chris, what is with all the posts are you drinking MJ now? Did you ever hear the one that Bill Cosby did (I think it was him) about as you age hair on your head pulls back into your body to pop out at a new location as you sleep? Ears, big eye brows, etc. Pretty funny stuff until your wife goes what is THAT while pointing at you, then comes at you with scissors.

Ok, who is talking about colonscopies!!!

Liz and Chris congrats on the EXM, I just knew that was a good one and was just not around to pull the trigger. Tim love what you did to make Jeff's comments pop.

Oh and Jeff loved the CAST too just get them boys to talk into the mic as some comments are not too clear. Sounds like you got some characters there.

Jeff
What books do you recommend for trading options the ones I have found that sound the best are the following.

1) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance)
By John J. Murphy

2) Intermarket Technical Analysis: Trading Strategies for the Global Stock, Bond, Commodity, and Currency Markets (Wiley Finance)
By John J. Murphy

3) McMillan on Options, Second Edition (Wiley Trading)
By Lawrence G. McMillan

4) Options As a Strategic Investment (4th Edition Study Guide)
By Lawrence G. McMillan

Doji,
Calorie count? You need to go back and look at those pictures. I haven't looked at a calorie count since I was 7.

Dale,
Lay low on the Master Talk till Jeff calms down. Yes the Web Ex shit the bed again. I know it will be worked out soon.

Cheers,
ARTY

Chris,
Just recommend that C-AIR serve MJ in first class with Baileys and Kahlua and you can poach one can per flight.

I am withholding my sarcasm about Colonoscopy's until I know why ANON is glad he got his early.

Cheers,
ARTY

Dale,

Since only books 3 and 4 relate to trading options, I would choose neither of those two. I would go with Sheldon Natenberg's Option Volatility & Pricing. That will teach you everything you need to know about options.

If your question was geared more towards understanding technical analysis to hlep you with your entries/exits of trading anything (options/futures/stocks) go with book #1.

By the way...sine I was away from the blog most of the day...

Thank you to everyone who congratulated me on some recent winners. The summer was full of streaks like this, but it was much easier to trade in. I only brought it up since this market has been choppy as hell.

Also for those who mentioned their support for the D League tryout, thank you. If I make the team I doubt I will accept the offer. I just want to see how I stack up against some of these guys.

Have a good night everyone, see you bright and early.

Hey all you currency traders out there.

When does the USD/JPY reset for the new day?

Thanks,
ARTEEEEEEE

$10 bucks says Costco doesn't sell Monsta Java.

Arty,
Looks like currency market resets day @ 12:01 AM Eastern Time

Hi Arty,

The daily currency candles break at 5:00pm est.

Calvin

Jeff,
Cool little comment box.

Michelle

LOVE the new comments box bells 'n whistles, Jeff. And may your winning streak keep on going strong!!

Well i woke up too early this AM and i have time to burn before work, so i check the blog and relize i must have missed something yesterday......FLASH KOHLER !!! Sorry, i did not click on the lil "job opening" link, now i know what all the chatter is about.....GOOD LUCK !!!! maybe you should bring Jackson for try outs, he'll smoke them all !!!!

Maybe I missed something. I thought a bad labor report would rally the market due to more pressure to cut FED rate. The futures took a big dive after the announcement of 4000 job lost instead of a 110,000 gain.

What's up with that?? anybody

Calvin

Calvin,

I know we aren't supposed to "listen" to CNBC, but I heard somebody make the comment that they wouldn't be surprised to see the market rebound, after the numbers actually set it in. Since this is supposedly what the market wanted--more ammunition for the Fed to cut rates.... Who knows!

Thanks Lisa for holding my hand through this one. I don't think I can stomach watching the opening moments.

Calvin

Calvin--It will be interesting to see if that actually happens though. All the more reason to make sure we are diversified.... Impossible to predict the reaction.

Jeff - your call on the video yesterday seems to have been perfectly fitted and timed. Well done, sir.

Calvin... I wonder the same... hmmm I am actually not wondering I AM FREAKING OUT! (is it cocktail hour yet?)

-steven

This is the part where I lose all thought of common sense...I'm in UA and GRMN and I'm wanting to bail because of the open...but tell me, do I need to be patient? These are bullish stocks, right? Help!

This is the day I have been waiting for! I’m not voting for a rebound.

Although, if it happens, it wouldn’t bother me all that much.

Raimo is having the time of his life bear hunting.

The fact that I'm at work at 6:30, yeah, it is coctail hour!

Besides shorting the RUT today......... I am going to watch my charts and stick to rules.

Cheers,
ARTY

lis,
be patient at least wait until the first hour is over.

Cheers,
ARTY

Lis,
Don't bail!! The first hour is the most valatile, let the market settle. THe internals of the market are actually getting better, according to Shadow Trader, so let it ride for a while.

I'm in GRMN, too, if that makes you feel any better.:-)

Did you see my post to you about the Fibs?

GRMN... as long as you are position sized correctly, you should be alright. It will be a better entry than yesterday by the end of the day. I hope.

Personally Lis, one of my rules is 'END OF DAY' ... Market is known for knee jerk reactions ... The opening seems brutal but for me .. I'm an end of day type of guy ... then I check my marks in the sand ..

This is emotion this AM in my opinion and Master Teacher Kohler says .. don't even look at your balances ... I agree with him.. even though it isn't easy ... :))

Hope this helps!

Lis,

You had a plan when you bought these stocks, right? That plan included support and resistance levels, trendlines and profit targets. Your trading plan includes rules such as "Exit with a close below $X" or "Exit if after the first hour of trading support is violated by X%". Something like that.

If you didn't have a plan, then you're susceptible to mornings like this, where you're biting your nails and your heart is pounding and you ask yourself, "Should I sell? Should I wait? Maybe I'll wait another 5 minutes..." Emotion should never enter into this. Ever.

Keep your head about you. My personal opinion is to be patient. Let this morning frenzy sort itself out. I'm watching the Dollar/Yen right now very carefully since despite the selloff, the support on the descending triangle is holding this morning. If it rallies from here, the market could stabilize. If it breaks down, then i'd get far more bearish.

For heaven's sake, it's only 15 minutes into the day!! Do you stop watching a football game if the opponent scores on its opening drive????

I was reading through Jeff's archives, specifically his "My Routine" post, and I was wondering if you guys would post your routines.

I would love to see how everyone else handles the day because there is probably something that I am missing. Maybe it will help all of us to fill in any gaps that we have in our routines.

Thanks in advance if you play along. :-)

What a classic last line Brett ... Priceless!

Lis (and Calvin),

Be patient! Walk away from the computer for a little while. Things are crazy the first hour of the day.
We are here for you.

Amy

Thanks all for you support...I will be strong. It's hard when you have a small account and have already lost 1/2 of it and am trying to recover.

Laney- yes, I seen your post about the Fibs. Thanks for that.

Trying to keep emotion at bay. It's nice being able to bounce things off of you all...I really appreciate it.

Brett, I was with you up til the football reference. Football ignoramous here. What's an opening drive??

If GMCR holds its position, it will be a great place to add if you aren't in need of a bigger position size. If you aren't in, a great place to jump in. IF IT HOLDS!

Laney, after taking a backseat most of the summer, I am desperately in need of a routine again. It is most certainly a struggle. Once you get comfortable with one, watch out!

I'm with you!

Lis,
Chin up, sweetie! Small account recovering from losses here, too. Just stay here and you will learn how to build up that account in no time.

Brett is right, go back to your plan. :-)

Support like this on a day like today is what makes this blog priceless.

This and the knowledge to be diversified I am amazed looking at my account on how it is keeping it self in a balance because of diversification.

PS. Brett great comments.

Lis,

I'm in GRMN also, do not panic I myself am looking to add to my position sometime after this first hour. Just a thought for ya...

You guys/gals are great! I don't feel so alone anymore :)
Laney- can you email me about customizing the Fibs.
woods4@grics.net
Thanks a million.

I too was surprised with the news and the opening but with my plan in place and good position sizing no panic here. Do I like the negative GRMN is producing in my account no but my two cents is to wait as the first hour is not where we made decisions for the day. Brett, I never have had a line in the sand for after the first hour that is different from the mental stop line in the sand that I normally execute end of day. Am I understanding that you have both? Had not thought of that.

Brett,
Thanks you for expounding it was brilliant. I had do a little maintenance.

Lis,
Take a moment to watch this clip of Boise State and if BSU didn't have plan how many times would they have SOLD.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjKXyL_o24

Cheers,
ARTY

The FXY gapped up and is falling. This is bullish for the market. I'd suggest watching NUE, which is about to break out and reverse. Commodity prices will rise in an inflationary environment (rate cut, anyone?).

The opening drive is the first possession of the football game. My point was that the game is far from over at that point. Just like the trading day.

Relax on the early noise here. The employment report was alot worse. The prior months were revised down.

Any reaction today won't suprise me when a number like this is so out of everybody's expected range.

I have some puts, some calls and own some SDS. It's all just kind of working out.

Jamie

Brett,
Isn't this about the time in a down day when BPHX takes off?

ARTY

Jaimie,
Love that SDS play on a day like today.

Cheers,
ARTY

GLD wow!

Arty-
Thanks for the clip- you are so right. I seem to forget about my rules when I see my account getting smaller and that obviously has been my biggest struggle. Thanks for the reinforcement.

Laney,

Also interested learning how to customize fib. Can you please email me...agekmyers@bluewireless.net
Thanks,
Amy

Arty,

Aewsome video, totaly awesome

Great clip, Arty, I love college football.

KLAC broke down this morning. Providing it holds with volume - sym triangle, should keep rolling downwards, right?

Amy and Lis,
Give me a little while and I'll get that e-mail out to you both. I'm knee deep in fractions with my 10 year old.

Thanks Arty

Any game that has Oklahoma loosing is a favorite of mine.

Go Huskers!!!

Mahmood,
You spelled HAWKEYES wrong
:)

Ladd,

I will have CYCLONE take care of that ;-)

So the FXY is flying now. That didn't take long. Tough day.

I need a double cocktail by now, I am close to a triple one though.

-steven

I need a double cocktail by now, I am close to a triple one though.

-steven

AHHHHHH! I just got on the computer. What a shocker.
Yesterday was the first day of strong gains for me in a long while so I tightened my stops. Now 50% of everything is gone. I'm left with my put play on NGPS - WHICH IS THE ONLY THING NOT GOING DOWN THIS MORNING. It is not eating all my profits. Everything else is.

Still in GRMN, AMZN, BIDU-this one is pretty scary but still above that 215 mark-GLD, RADS and BNVI

It is real hard to follow my rules right now and not pull the trigger on what's left. If it weren't for you guys I would just turn it off and whallo in my indecision.

Diana

Any of you guys have any success with the whole idea of shorting the markets at the open when things gap down and the FXY is up ... etc.

I have tried this type of approach a few times and have lost a little every time. I react emotionally and get out too soon. Not only that, but it is extremely distracting to me. I have not found a method (entry and exit signals) that work well enough to take the emotion out of it for me.

I'm thinking of just making a rule that I never do this. Anyone have methods that have worked in this regard that I might consider?

How bout American Oriental BioEngineering AOB for some relative strength.

The Broncos play Washington at 3:30 EST Saturday. I expect you all to be routing them on to victory.

Cheers,
ARTY

anyone watching FAST, breaking the neckline....

You know what has worked well for me in this choppy market? Short iron condors and long calendars. After all, the movements are all over the place, but we're not really going anywhere. I'm hoping the spy hits 145 and I'll wrap an October IC all around this whole big sideways range we're in.

I know we don't talk about ICs much here and I don't prefer them, but these conditions seem conducive to them. My septembers are doing well.

Tim Are you going to day trade this? And have you tried it when the market doesn't GAP?

Cheers,
ARTY

Arty, yes, I guess that what I'm asking about is day trading. I'm really going off the idea that jeff and eric talk about a lot on the marketcast about shorting the market into the gap down. Placing your bets at the open and then trying to get out by end of day. My problem is, I don't have a method in place and so i just sit and fret about it as long as its open and usually close it out at the wrong time.

I have also done this some when there is not a gap down, and it didn't turn out any better.

I don't know what to look for to enter and what to look for to exit. So, at least for now, I am going to stop doing it but I thought if anyone had any ideas on a method it might help me.

Has anybody watched the movie

Ghost Rider

Wasn't it Johnny Blaze that said this to the cop in the helecoptor:

"YOUR REALLY PISSING ME OFF"

Just kinda how I feel

LFG target was 35. I took some off the table go lower baby.

Brian K

Tim, I have been wondering but not tried that concept on the FXY gap myself. I have been even shorter term like 30 minutes for $0.20 on the SPY. Today I can't even do that yet as not enough movement.

I would like to learn more about your IC trades as I have not done those at all.

Thanks, Bob.

I'm sure there are a lot of people who know way more than me, but I learned everything I know about ICs and time spreads from TOS. They have a ton of audio archives on their website that you can listen to and learn.

Bottom line -- ICs are short VEGA (volatility) and calendars are long VEGA. So, I like to see the indices trade down toward the bottom of their range and pump up the volatility, then sell an IC that is so conservative and outside of all of the widest levels of support and resistance. Then, when it trades back up and volatility contracts, I like to buy slightly OTM put calendars. There's more to it than that and probably a ton I don't know but that's the gist of what I'm doing.

It works when the markets go sideways. Of course, there is still risk, just like everything. If we start trending like crazy there's a chance (albeit small) that it'll blow through.

But the bottom line for me is that emotionally, it takes all of the whipsaw out because on those trades, I don't care how the market moves from day to day. It's one of the "lower maintenance" trades I've put on.

Brian K,

if the target for LFG was 35 why are you taking some off at 45?

Just want to see if I am missing something.

Thanks

I am very happy I BOT (Stock) on GLD & (Calls) GOLD yesterday morning.

Making great moves since yesterday.

May the trading gods be with us.

David in NH

Thanks, Sarah, for pointing out FAST. I had been watching and waiting on that one for days and with my internet down could barely manage my old trades much less look at any new ones.

Michelle

SWHC & GLD, a couple of bright spots and a sea of red.

Hey Brett:
I Know you were keeping an eye on ACAS. I see a tringle break out with a possible 6 point move. Anybody?

I sure picked a fine day to have to play realtor! I knew this morning would be bad but didn't expect it to be this bad. The worst thing about it is my puts (ABC & CVH) are hardly down. If they aren't falling on a day like today perhaps I should rethink the position and bail.

BRETT,
You made a comment about NUE (which I got into yesterday at the close). Why do you think that will go up against the rest of the market? So far, I'm not enjoying this ride.

Is this a good REE on FAST or should it have been closer to just below 45?

Thanks for any feedback,
VeroBarbara

How does one go about projecting a price target?

VeroBarbara

VeroBarbara,

It all depends on what type of pattern you are trading... They are all measured differently. Are you asking about the H&S on FAST in particular?

GRMN back above 105! I know its still early but still, that's a good sign.

BCSI is taking off.It is bouncing off support, which is half way down the long candle.

JP from OC

DG,

I am not Brett, but I am also keeping an eye on NUE as I am in it too. Even though it bounced back down from the resistance at 55ish, it looks like it has found some support and has broken to the upside of the range between 54ish and 54.25 so I am still thinking this is bullish for now.

I think first and foremost we need to make sure we have a plan and we are trading our plan but I also keep thinking about what Eric and Jeff have said almost every single day on the marketcast.

Do not be afraid to take profits especially in this market climate. Make your stops tight so you lock in at least a little bit. And trade smaller position sizes. And diversify, diversify, diversify!

What was that, that Jeff said a little while back... Err on the side of a swing trade.

I know for me personally, I've gotten out of a lot of positions earlier than I would have a few months ago like ATW for example. I missed some of that great move but I still made a nice profit on it. Before, I would have given my stocks more leeway. I'm not giving them much room this time around. I've got pretty tight stops (mental) until the market decides to settle down some and because of that I've actually made back almost all of what I lost within the first few weeks of this craziness. I may miss some movement and that can suck but then I just look for another entry. Obviously there are plus and minuses to this style but I'm trying to adjust to this volatility and this has been what works for me at the moment.

I'm not very good yet with spread trades nor do I feel very comfortable with them yet so I've adjusted in a way that fits me.

All I'm saying is, if you have a small account (like myself) make sure you have a plan put in place and adjust accordingly. The first hour of trading can be scary or exhilarating depending on what the market is doing and after that make decisions.

Anyway, I hope my little rant helps some of you adjust.

Hi, Lisa

Thanks for responding. I do see the recent H&S pattern. It looks like the neckline is around 46-ish. Jeff said to look for a BO below 45, which it has done. What I am curious about is if I get into a put now, where can I project the stock price to go? I am learning to see patterns, but have trouble with price projections (I am a trader-in-training).

VeroBarbara

VeroBarbara,

For the H&S patterns, you measure the price target from the top of the head to the neckline, and project downward from the point of breakout. However, you also need to make sure the break of the neckline is occuring on high volume which is why most wait until the end of the day to trade breakouts. Hope this helps.

Live from Eppley Airfield in beautiful Omaha, NE...

Gotta love the Sprint wireless card.

DG - I love NUE, and i see no reason for this trade to fail. That is, unless it does.

DavidS - I'm out of ACAS because I no longer have any idea which way it will break. And I don't see a triangle either.

Everyone else, This may seem like a really bad day, but in the big picture, it's just a retest for the indices. Nothing more. It's a bear trap if you fall into it. Stay diversified and be mindful of the overall trend.

Now, if I get up in the sky and the bottom falls out, Jeff, please delete the last paragraph.

Mahmood,

LFG- took some profits to make my P&L look better. had some bad trades and wanted to post some gains . strictly a personal choice.

also in this market i am drawing my exit lines with a crayon not a pencil, i have been suprised too many times

Brian K

ok thanks Brian K

Agreed on crayons. That is the only way I am keeping my sanity.

At the end of the day, may be a lot of REE stocks.

Michelle

Hi all, sorry if this was already covered, just popping in during lunch and haven't read all the comments.

COST busted through it's neckline.

MikeH

Anyone else notice the daily inverse head and shoulders reversals on the indices...like EVERYWHERE??

Will they hold? Will they fail? Will this airport pizza agree with my stomach?

Careful on COST. The day isn't over yet.

Brett
What time do you fly?
ARTY

Agreed Brett, that all the market has done so far is retest inverse H&S neckline. Will see how the day ends.

Airport Pizza, now that is a different story.

I see an add point appearing on ELON......

Interesting, the market bottomed and turned up exactly at the weak jobs/payroll announcement just as Marketcast predicted. With the FXY gapping up and holding up I expect to see this intraday up turn fail by day end.

Wish I could sit and watch and trade this activity. Sigh... back to the real job.

Brett-
Did you say you were using a sprint card? I thought you had an iPhone. Do you use two carriers?

Now about airport pizza...

liz

Arty,

Was supposed to be airborne by now, but we're delayed. Lining up now to get on board. I tried to time this so i'd be on the ground with enough time to make any necessary moves, but I may have to pull a Raimo today and just totally be out of touch at the worst possible time.

Raimo is on a mountain speering elk. I'm on a plane high above the midlands. It's in your hands now, Arty. Bring the market home for us.

And some clean cups wouldn't hurt right about now. At least before Arty blows up with 400 posts this afternoon.

Boy, DRYS is getting the job done today!
Look at ZNH. Up today and nice entry point.
I took profits on BIDU yesterday. Looking for re-entry....

Rd

Man, if I could find Omaha on a map I'd scoot over and help Brett out. I never eat anything at the airport except in dire emergencies (like imminent death.)

I'm in Toronto waiting out a few minutes until I head to New York and back. I can't see what's going on in the markets (unlike some people I can't afford all these fancy schmancy internet connections for my computer. This one's a company one that I can't get into Interactive Brokers. I don't want to know what's going on if I can't trade. Lalalalalalala.)

I Like the way the S&P is setting up. From the low on 8/16 I see a high on 8/27 a higher low on 8/29 a higher high on 9/4.

I am slanted towards the short side but am ready to get long. I thought there was a REAL chance the Fed would NOT cut before todays employment report. There hands are free to cut now.

I'd love to see a re-test close to that 1430 low and a bounce higher.
Just my technical thoughts.....

Jamie

Sarah-
Agree on ELON.

liz

IVGN

you gotta love it

Chris,
Gonna be flying today and probably eating airport food. Yaaa!!

Michelle

I see KLAC breaking down out of Sym Triangle. But it is sitting right at horizontal support. That has to be a bear trap doesn't it ?

Jamie

FXY-staying above that 87.50 level.

liz

BSC looks like it's breaking down out of symmetrical triangle. It's easier to see on a line chart. The volume's building up nicely today. If there's not a reversal by the end of the day, it may be time to scoop up some puts.

Joel R.

Curious how those of you that use TOS like the platform. I'm considering switching over, but finding the platform to have a lot of bells and whistles that I don't really need. It's capabilities are amazing, but a bit intimidating at first it seems.

Peter

Peter,
TOS is worth the learning curve. I still don't understand how to use a lot of it but the ease of order entry and the quick and good fills, not to mention the attitude of the people on the trade desk and help desk make it all worthwhile.

Peter, I love the TOS platform. I haven't used a lot of others to compare, but I think it is awesome. I think it takes some getting used to for people used to other platforms, but once you are used to the desktop software, it puts a lot of power at your fingertips with excellent speed.

The other thing that is phenomenal are the analytical tools for options. The analyze tab is complex, but if you learn to use it, it can save you a ton of time when you are evaluating option pricing.

Thanks for your input- much appreciated. I think I'll continue to paper trade TOS for a while to get my confidence up before making the switch.

Peter

Peter,

I'm very happy with the TOS platform. Of course, I've never used anything other than TOS so I don't have anything to compare to. You are correct though--it appears overwhelming at first. I haven't even begun to explore the capabilities. They do have a lot of training demos in the help section that you can watch. And you can also download the software for a trial period to see if you like it. One of the big things for me is the prophet charts, since that is what I was used to with Investools. Oh, and I have to say their customer service is outstanding.

Does TOS have "trailing stop loss" capabilities on options? If their is such a thing.

VeroBarbara

Michelle, or anybody that remembers

Brett highly reco'd a book not that long ago, Michelle you said you were going to get it soon, did you write down the name of it - or does anybody else remember what it was?

Peter,
I haven't used TOS, so don't have an opinion. I love Options Express but only really use it for long-term stock trades because the price is too much. But it is easy, easy to use.
IB is okay. A lot cheaper than Options Express. Just shop around. You'll find the one that is right for you.

Michelle

Yes, TOS has trailing stops, and they just released the ability to track and see where your trail is currently. They also just released new advanced orders that are amazing. So, just about any type of order you can dream up is possible.

You can even do things like "When the stock hits such a price, sell my option at whatever the mid-point between bid/ask happens to be at that point, oh and by the way, don't do this until such a time of day and only if the dow jones trades above such a level".

Crazy.

TOS is that think or swim???

I am waiting for TOS to come out with an order type like "buy AAPL at the exact low and sell it at the exact high thereby guaranteeing me the max profit possible" but they haven't released that yet.

Jodi,

The book is Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John J. Murphy.

Thanks Lisa

I owe you a beer :)

Jodi

Peter, using Tos and i like the $1/option contract fee. I usually trade 5 contracts.

Brian K

Tim and all others,
Thanks for info re: TOS. I became very interested when Tom Sosnoff did the Volatility Webinar. TOS seems pretty amazing. But for now, I stuck with TDAmeritrade.

VeroBarbara

Jodi,

I will take you up on that at the next OA get together.

Also, the book is great! Very comprehensive. And pretty much like a college textbook so be prepared!

Brett and Raimo,
I will take it form here. Maybe push the Dow back down to about 220 and then bring here back to finish softly.

I shall not post wildly as I am going to get in touch with my Culinary side.

Bob-O - if you do spear one, spear a good one!

Chris,
If my plan starts to falter could you hop on the radio and let the pilot of Brett's flight know.

thnaks,
ARTY

I emailed TOS a simple question about their interest rate on cash, and the replier cc'd Scott Sheridan, the founder of TOS, in his response. I was impressed by that.
Peter

I used optionexpress first and was getting killed on commissions. They're good and they have classes as well but I love TOS so much better. I like their platform and how easy it is to use. They also have tons of video that go through how to use everything. They're very courteous on the trade desk. And they have great classes as well.

liz

DG,
I totally concur about TOS and their people!

Cheers,
ARTY

What do y'all think of CROX? Heading back to its previous level of 52 or maybe bounce to the 47? It has bit me in the butt more times than I'd like to say.

MACD and stoc both down plus it had a big volume spike on Wednesday when it closed lower.

Thoughts? Comments?

What does TOS charge for commission? Is it always $1 per contract - like opposed to $15 per trade with optionsXpress?