I am buying some SDS at the close here. Just in case. I am not bearish just looking for a bit of a hedge .

Jamie

Jeff,

I think that was me that you kicked.

Signed,

Swollen

The video reminds me of what happens to options prices when the VIX falls off the table and you think your account should be up more.

JB

Smell that ...

that is the smell of bullshit...LOL..

My bulls are back....

Thanks everyone for your help. It helps to know I am not the only optionaddict THis was my first Fed day also and my emotions were out of waak. I took profits on CVX, ATI, and NVDA they were expiring any way on friday and I also entered VDSI. It feels good to sell your profits when the market is in your favor.

I didn't kick anyone but I did ok. I had to exit my Sept. ATI spread because I was short the 100s and three days from expiration. Too much gamma risk -- had to take it off so that was a bummer. Lesson here -- trade spreads just like I trade straight calls/puts and get out on the swing. Had a nice profit two days ago. Today, took a small loss.

Otherwise, not too bad. Ready to let things settle and find some more good trades.

Really glad I got GRMN yesterday to help balance out my bearish losses.

So Raimo,

How do you bulls feel about all this counter-fed talk for tomorrow? My "I was meeting with a client 10 minutes too long to take any profits" inquiring mind needs to know.

James H.

Well, that was something!
Jeff, things were popping up all over on your list, and it was hard to not get carried away. ADSK, BOBJ, VRTX and VSEA were too irresistible for me to pass. And thank you for the pick on VAR- way to be -.7% when the DOW was up 336. Now I'm overweighted bullish, and hope I don't take a (another) thrashing in the next week. Need to find some good puts.

Thanks!

Peter

Jeff, the orange afro worked. Would have never known it was you and it even made you look shorter, go figure.

Also your watchlist was on fire but appears several have moved too far from REE now, as I just did not get there fast enough I guess.

Raimo, I think that smell is my computer again.

Ha Ha Ha That video was funny Jeff, good for you!!

Thanks for the monster watch list too. Thanks again for everything else!

Jodi

I had to leave the computer 1 hour before the fed announcement to help a friend in Santa Barbara pull his boat out of the harbor for repairs. I had visions of 2/27 in my head as I raced home to see what my account did. I didn't make a killing but I did well. I have Jeff and this group to thank for that. I had protected my account with calls and puts with a slightly positive delta. I love trading options and think I am on the brink of "getting it". I just wish the learning curve had not been so looooonnnngggg. I do know that this blog has kept me in the game and definitely shortened the curve.

Kim, I can't really relate to the mammogram, but you should thank god you don't have a prostate!!!

Tooo funny...

Lost of breakouts today, many blasted well beyond my rule tolerance for entries within 5 minutes of the FED announcement. Any counter fed pullback tomorrow should provide the entries I need so I'm rooting for that.

I did take new entries on ERES, ELON, FLIR, STX and SCHN.

What do you guys make of that confirmed shooting star on FTI? I've never put much faith in that type of candle on an amazing up trend but that confirmation on a huge up day like today tempts me to buy a put and see what happens.

Stan,
In an earlier thread you asked the question- "I'm looking to do Iron Condors with double wide legs to give a bigger factor of safety and a little more premium. As an example a RUT with 670-690/870-890 has a 180 point target range and still gives a $2 credit. The RUT has never moved that much in a month as far as I can see. Any thoughts?"

My husband, David, does ICs on the RUT. He likes it because it IS less of a mover than the SPX, which he used to use. He has also did RIMM when it was in a channel.

For September he has 670-680/ 870-890. He has had to move it and double down twice but it looks like it will hold til Thursday. For October he will start out with the wider range and more contracts.

I think the Octobers range will be different - in closer on the BCS and up more on the BPS from September but still very wide.

Do you know all about them? I know little except here is a Delta at which, if reached, you close out that side and double up. He learned from Michael Drew in a series of 4 Trading Rooms and a class at the Chicago Conference.

--Patti

Jeff,

Big ups to you, my man. You called the bullish divergence in the markets a few weeks ago, when everyone was predicting the end of the world.

Huge.

Bottom feeder -

FTI. Don't do it! What's the first rule of trading? If you were within arms reach I'd be shaking you right now.

Take a look at BA, VAR, ACN, STR.

Kim

VA Beach Girl,

Um..... trade with the trend?


:-)

Jeff,

You said you are looking to be bearish in the near future(or I am assuming the near future). Yet technicals currently seem to signal bullish. Isn't an ascending triangle like the one that formed on the S&P a bullish consolidation?

I guess I am curious what you will be looking for, I can see a run to 1550 again and 14000 and then have it turn over but is that what you are looking to see?

thanks

wish I had stayed in my GS trade, oh well, there will be many more.

Ben

Bottom feeder ,

Good boy! Very good boy! Now roll over and let me scratch your belly for doing such a good job.

Just being silly. Kim

Ben-

More homework.

Look at the price action that occured after the last easing campaign that the FED started on Jan 3 2001. Look at the price action that followed. Longer term, I think we are headed for a recession.

BTW- I don't see a triangle, but if I did, yes, it would be a bullish pattern. Similar to the ones I spoke of on my video today.

Hello all. I am out there and alive recouping from the burns of the BPHX, EXM, and VIP stock positions I am in taking off. I have not this read Blog entry but I am only 5 or so behind. So I will be catching up soon. Hope all went well today. Love you and your fertilizer Bob-O.

Cheers,
ARTY

Jeff-
You look good in an afro. I would never have known it was you. I did some kicking myself today except my afro was pink.

All I can say is WOW! What a day! Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings.


Raimo-
I thought that smell was coming from you!

liz

Michelle, Bob & Chris-
Sorry I didn't respond back in the last post or maybe last 2 posts... Everything was moving too fast today!!!! ;-)

liz

Liz,
I don't even remember what I posted, so no problem. Was out most of the day, and the rest trying to decide whether to hold or sell. What a day.


Great watchlist, Jeff.

Raimo,
Okay. We're ready for the next rule. I exercised #1 and #2 today.
Michelle

AM I AN ADDICT OR JUST MENTAL WARPED 4EVER???
So i am at work, i get a chart for a patient and trhe front desk writes REE under reason for today's visit....the first thing that comes to mind is how do they know Raimo !!! after i realized what i was thinking i had to laugh at myself, duh ROUTINE EYE EXAM !!! well i thought it was funny......

ps SCHN...cup&handle, 12.50 target, 2 months time???? yes ??

Lots of comments on breakouts, etc with today's action. But how much can we trust them given that it's all a response from a "Meth" shot in the arm from the Fed? One the euphoria wears off, won't the atrophy set in. So I'm real leary on putting any faith in breakouts today.

I am a long time follower and am looking for advice from one of you GURUS.

I have the Dec 22 put and yesterdays action reached my line in the sand. After returning from work today, I found XHB made a significant gain above my exit. Should I exit first thing in the morning or wait it out. I will appreciate some input. I read this blog daily and have learned from everyone. Keep up the good work.
PS I am glad everyone is back to the matter at hand...MAKING CASH! I can read the TV Guide to keep up with the reality shows.
Thanks to all.

Barry

Barry,

In response to when you should place your trades, look in the archives under "Trade in the Moment." When you pull this up, click on the link at the beginning of the article to get some additional perspective on intraday trades. It's very insightful.

Happy trading!

Jeff, keep up the EXCELLENT blog! You're helping us!

Krystal
Fishers, IN

Barry,

While I'm not one of the Gurus I see XHB retesting resistance today. I'd call it a REE. I could be wrong but I don't see anything on the horizon to move the homebuilders higher.

Just my .02 --Patti

Tonya,
SCHN looks great.

Michelle

anyone else having problems playing the cast?

Ladd,

It is playing for me so far. I just started it though.

I think I may be confused, on the CAST Jeff said we are in a BULL market. Yet a few posts up he typed that R word again and BEARISH long term. So do I understand BULLISH short term and BEARISH longer term? If so, I get that and lines up with what I see. Just wish I knew what short term was for these bullish trades I am entering.

I wish to apologize for my earlier emotional outburst after being so frustrated today. I danced hard tonight and thought things over and I do NOT hate everything and everybody. Especially you guys here. I will write a detailed Lessons Learned on Fed Day as soon as I get a chance. Which may not be until the weekend.

Long: NUE, FLIR, NVDA, POT, VDSI & RESP

Short: Patience (obviously an issue with me)

Thanks Jeff, Yea I have looked at the old time that they cut back in 01, and it makes sense we could see it again.

Hmm, maybe I am too eager to see a triangle, what would you say it is, an uptrending channel from mid august? Or am i just on crack all together and missing the big picture. Either way it looks like it broke resistance but I don't want to see patterns that arent' there, haha.

Ben

Bob-
I think that's what I got as well. I think...

liz

Jaime,

***"I am buying some SDS at the close here. Just in case. I am not bearish just looking for a bit of a hedge ."***

How did this work out for you?

Arty

Brett,
Thank you or talking me down off of the ledge of selling half my HANS positions. I believe your strong advice was "you cant take profits on hans it is breaking out".

Save me a slow one at the next Nebraska ho down - maybe scent of a women style -- hoowaa!

ARTY the one man Party

Julio Kohler,
Thanks for all you do. Thanks for the ideas you have put me in front of. You can bet on a classic Boise recipe Friday on the cast.

HANS Christian Kohler and gettin long some Vimple both workin out.

ARTY

Bob (Pam), Liz,

My take on what Jeff said on market conditions: Current market posture is obviously bullish and the long term view… Sooner or later the bottom will fall out, maybe earnings season will be the catalyst coupled, tripled and/or quadrupled with a few poor economic reports, news or bankruptcies related to credit woes and/or the real estate / homebuilder recession… Yep, tough times are on the horizon… What will be hard to guess is how far visibility is.

But for now, let’s ride Raimo’s bulls (smell and all), it is a bull market until proven otherwise.

Long: BIIB, ELON, JEC, NUE, POT, HANS, GLD, BPHX (thanks Brett, bought it the beginning of August at $12. Not bad for a stock position)

Short: Sleep, VAR, soon maybe GIVN, DRIV

My itunes isn't downloading the new cast for some reason, is it on the investools website?

anyone else having issues?

thanks

Ben

DANG.....

I cant keep up with you guys on the blog....this is an extremely busy time of the year for me, you can guess why..

Lis, yeah, that was me, I smell, I ran with the pack today. I have to agree here with Bottom Feeder...So many trades blew past targets, and got so far away from REE....

I sold half of my postions before the fed rambled, and anther half after he rambled...leaving me with 1/4 postions....I exited trades that hit or blew past RTR....I did not wnt too, but hey, rules are rules...

The best part of all of this, well, besides CHA CHING in my account, is the re-entrys we are all going to get, confirming that a lot of these breakouts are not fakeouts.

This is where LACK OF EXPERIENCE plays a role...not having experienced in this type of a market condition and being risky can hurt you..I know, because I too have taken risks...some work out, some don't, and when they don't, you feel like the new pretty boy in prison...

Michelle, kudos for REE and RTR helping you bank some profits..

Jeff,

Lots of great looking trades in the watchlist. Thanks for putting them on our radar.

My IRA account is up 20% and my cash account is down 12%. Therefore, my task this morning is to do a thorough review of all the trades to see exactly what I screwed up. Although I already know the answer--trading with half-assed rules and a half-assed plan. Before I take another trade, I will have it planned from start to finish, and I will trade the plan with no deviations. Period.

I do feel like I am making progress from a technical perspective, but I apparently haven't taken the emotion out of it. Hence some of the bad decisions I have made....

Since I will also be watching for the re-entry points on some of stocks, I need to get this done sooner rather than later....

LisaG..

You are on the right path now..

rules..you must have them, and you must follow them..they are what allow you to make un-emotional decisions...

Raimo,

That is becoming more and more clear to me every day, even though I have heard it from day one... I started out having some things down on paper, but for whatever reason they went by the wayside. Maybe I wasn't comfortable with them?? I feel like now I am in a much better position to get something in place that I am comfortable with and that I completely understand and can act upon. This blog has played a huge role in that, for which I am very thankful!

Along with all the great education we get from JK, the fact that you and Brett are willing to share so much with everybody is awesome. There is so much to be learned just from the interaction/discussion that goes on here between all the bloggers.

Ben, yeah, itunes is still not grabbing the most recent episode this morning. You can download it here:

Click here for the Sept. 18th Marketcast

Brett..

Off to you know where. My crystal ball is CLEAR...

ELON...PERFECT sym triangle setup...PERFECT! now, we wait...

Thanks for ELON.....!!

Brett ,

I second Raimo's comment ELON, fortunately I was long at 24 and added at the last pull back. Nothing worst than scaling back on positions and being in a meeting during the fed announcement. Now I have to be patient and wait for pullbacks.

Congrats to all who had a great day.

Raimo,
Thank you for that post. I know we are supposed to make our own decisions and own trades and rules. I am just trying to see how you do it. If I agree, I will try implementing some of your strategies. An example, Jeff's picks are awesome, but sometimes they don't look right to me or I don't understand the pattern, so I pass, or sometimes I don't have enough capital to enter new trades.
I took profits on some trades the day before and scaled back and took more profits at the end of the day and left very small positions. If there is a counter-Fed day, there will be re-entries, if not, oh, well, I will find other trades that have not blown past a good base. Thanks, thanks for pounding that REE one home. That one, I got. Still working on the number two rule, but I'm learning.

Michelle

Sarah,

ELON is a gem. Hopefully you bought stock because I think this one's set up for a nice future.

Jeff, what should we do about GRMN?

Just kidding.

Arty, with S&P futures up 9+. I'll be down a little money. Probably about 50cts on 1000 shares.
Puts were stopped out except VAR and I am long calls POT, BIDU, GNK, ATI, ELON, RIMM, SUN, VLO.

I have gotten whacked (not a Soprano's hit) a few times when my portfolio skews to one side of the market... So sometimes I use the SDS or the SSO on a overnight trade just to neutralize things a bit. I'll make my decision today based on price action of the market.

Good trading today everyone....
Jamie

Jamie

Well, everything is overextended. Even the Marketcast picks don't fit my rules. Just will check back in later and see where the market is.

Happy Trading,
Michelle

If this mornings action keeps up, today I'm gonna be the one kicking the market in the pants.....

Lots of picks are pulling back to breakout points

Look at SNDA and CNQ

I do not expect to find too many good entries today since most had big moves yesterday and now we need few days of pull back to support.

I do need some Bearish plays to diversify my portfolio, so I am going to look for some but I do not expect to find too many good choices.

Any ideas guys?

Ben,

There was someone (I forget there name) that used to frequent this blog. I will refer to him as the "Magician." He had this amazing ability (in his eyes) to make patterns out of thin air.

Don't force them. At some point you will have to attend my trading room on the topic. Conformity/consistency is a HUGE factor in pattern recognition.

Mahmood,
The only one I'm stalking now is GIVN. All my others don't look so bearish any more.

Back on Aug 20something I mentioned TRAK which was sitting at diag. support and in the process of making a kick-ass asc. triangle. Perfect REE. This is a stock play and no longer at support and on a tear BUT put it on your radar for a possible breakout.

Wait, Jeff...

you mean you have a trading room on price patterns? That's awesome.

(that's sarcasm for the blog newbies)

Brett,

You mentioned, recently, that one of the searches you use is "Stocks ready to bounce." How can I find that Search? Or did you write it yourself?

VeroBarbara

Mahmood:
I am keeping an eye on VAR. It just isn't at REE yet

It's called 'anticipating the bounce'. i don't know if it's still there, but check investools' strategy searches for it. if you can't find it, i'm sure jeff would provide the parameters for it and you could re-create it yourself.

Guys, i'm going to throw a haymaker your way. I'm scaling out of my bullish positions today and looking for weak stocks for puts. I've found a gem.

LAMR. Descending triangle in place. Yesterday's action likely just short-covering. The pattern is likely to break down, and i'm taking the trade here on the resistance bounce down. Do your own homework, but those October $50's are mighty tasty.

Know your risk and your exits if you're considering the trade.

Brett,

there is also an Anticipating the Bounce II for bearish plays.

so far the some bearish plays I researching are

CTX FXF LAMR CSX LFG ASD FIS AVY AZO BCO HOG WCC EXP OMX RHI MAN

I have not done any analysis on them other then basic trend check, I will post more analysis later when I am done

as for bullish plays I have some going and I am going to wait for pull back for more

The thinkorswim seminar in Omaha yesterday took me out of action during this great event but I was still able to have plays in DRYS GRMN MT NVDA RESP SOHU VLO and ZUMZ
and all are doing great

I cannot tell you enough how valuable this blog has been to me. Haveing folks to discuss trades with all day long then to have mentors like Jeff, Brett and Raimo arround is just invaluable. You guys are awesome

Brett as Erin Burnett ... I am impressed ... Maybe I should post a pix of Mark Haynes .. :)))) (no!) You're too funny Brett!

I am too looking for PUTS for later today .. any ideas anyone might have .. please pass them along ... LAMR seems sensible to me on intial view Brett - thanks!
Mahmood ... good starting list to research .. THANKS!

I think NYX still looks good here.

VeroBarbara,

you expressed some frustration yesterday,,I can show you a tool that might be helpful,,you can email me SPGRLG@YAHOO.COM

sue

WNR as a bearish idea?

ELON breakout attempt #2 for the day?

James H.

BIDU....holy cow!

I really should have kept that trailing stop rather than closing the position yesterday. Is this the next GOOG? Target 600!

SFLY (spanish fly as I like to call it) - teetering on an asc triangle breakout. 4pt move.

ONXX - nice bounce entry off asc diag support

EEM (ETF) - may break out today.

CLEAN CUPS!!!!!

Could this be a re-test of support on CNQ?

VeroBarbara

Brett, thank you for the BPHX. It continues to rock. I entered it when it was actionable on my plan.

I mentioned CCC last week as support bounce. I see it breaking out of an Ascending triangle today with nice confirming volume.

Some names are really pulling back from there highs.

Jamie