30 Stocks to Avoid Buying Options On
ALCOA INC
AIG
AMER INTL GROUP INC
AXP
AMER EXPRESS INC
BA
BOEING CO
C
CITIGROUP INC
CAT
CATERPILLAR INC
DD
DU PONT E I DE NEM
DIS
WALT DISNEY-DISNEY
GE
GEN ELECTRIC CO
GM
GEN MOTORS
HD
HOME DEPOT INC
HON
HONEYWELL INTL INC
HPQ
HEWLETT PACKARD CO
IBM
INTL BUSINESS MACH
INTC
INTEL CP
JNJ
JOHNSON AND JOHNS DC
JPM
JP MORGAN CHASE CO
KO
COCA COLA CO THE
MCD
MCDONALDS CP
MMM
3M COMPANY
MO
ALTRIA GROUP INC
MRK
MERCK CO INC
MSFT
MICROSOFT CP
PFE
PFIZER INC
PG
PROCTER GAMBLE CO
T
AT&T
UTX
UNITED TECH
VZ
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS
WMT
WAL MART STORES
XOM
EXXON MOBIL CP
Recommendation: Buy options on stocks that are going to move.
Long: Stocks that move
Short: "The Living Dead"
Disclaimer: This is only a personal preference. Always choose your poison wisely.
Brett, re-posting this from the bottom of last thread.
I'll go AEM. Setting up a small H&S at the top of a trend. Its bouncing off the 30 day now setting up the right shoulder. Not actionable yet....but can be put on a bearish watch list .
Jamie
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:11:00 PM
Barbara,
Listen to Raimo and Jeff. They have experience and know what they are doing.
I am holding over earnings, but I sold my contracts a few days ago, and bought a small stock position.
What I've heard here on the blog and by others is it's okay to gamble, but be willing to lose the whole amount. If you are okay with that, then let it ride. That's my 2 cents' worth. I am still learning. Thanks again, Raimo, for teaching taking profits. It is helping me tremendously, along with buying on the bounce.
"Never give up." I love that.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:12:00 PM
Just the list I was looking for. Thanks Jeff :)
Posted by Jodi | 10/04/2007 12:14:00 PM
By the way, Jeff, great Masters Talk session on flags. I learned a great deal from it. I wish you had a visual session for each of your topics on the right. Thanks again for all that you do for us.
Posted by Lisa | 10/04/2007 12:25:00 PM
HNAVZ..C'mon, someone call me crazy, please..
Posted by Raimo | 10/04/2007 12:31:00 PM
Raimo,
WTF you thinking? NAVZ in an uptrend, in a strong bull market and you think it's a good put play???
You are cah raaazeee.
Or you been smoking some pot lately...
Posted by Jodi | 10/04/2007 12:34:00 PM
Barbara, Sorry to hear Dan has a kidney stone. It feels like giving birth. I wish him well.
Almost all Solar stocks are dropping today heavily.
Brett, what is your line inthe sand for NILE. It's very near mine at 93.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/04/2007 12:37:00 PM
Jeff,
Where are you hearing this info on RIMM?
Now I am considering buying a contract, just so you know if I do obviously that is my decision and I would not blame anyone else for a loss, but I would give you credit for the gain, lol.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:38:00 PM
Man, IV on the front month RIMM options is ridiculous.
Oh well, one 100 call is about 2% of the account so if I am risking all the premium it is still acceptable to me. i too like gambling, with odds in my favor though. :-D
I fear IV will drop so much it will make RIMM need blow out numbers for it to make money, but we'll see.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:44:00 PM
Patti,
$93 is strong support.
Posted by Brett | 10/04/2007 12:44:00 PM
I am re-posting this for Dan from the prev thread..
KIDNEY STONES!!!
YIKES! Had those myself a few years ago...do not look up what they look like on the internet...I don't know what sick gothic torture those things are derived from......
My advice Dan,...... Johnny Walker Blue Label, start now, don't stop till the bottle is empty..
I did not feel a thing...
Posted by Raimo | 10/04/2007 12:47:00 PM
Brett- I am with you on the burritos. Nice call... soon to get spicy.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:48:00 PM
Thanks, Brett. NILE is still in that 93 area.
Ben, You'll have to sell RIMM first thing in the morning before IV drops off.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/04/2007 12:49:00 PM
Ben,
I try and stay "connected" to the super-highway of information out there.
I have a few guys I talk to occasionally that manage money that are tied into the beat on the street.
They are worthless for a good trade reco, but once in a while are pretty solid when it comes to information that will surface over a few weeks or so.
To give you an example, this guy has an unreal cost basis in the stock. He's been trading it for years...and he added last week.
I'm not basing my decision totally on this element, but I have a decent cost basis here also, and I have taken profits on most of my recent position.
Think of it as coming across some insider buying.
Hope I don't "crap out."
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 12:50:00 PM
Jodi out smarting me??
Posted by Raimo | 10/04/2007 12:52:00 PM
Reposting because no one answered me. :-(
Any thoughts??
Can we talk NTRI? I am wondering if once a stock has a big gap down on news if it traditionally will stay down. NTRI has a history of this in the past, too. I was looking at GRMN and DNDN and this seems to be the trend.
I am trying to take emotion out of the equation and look strictly at what the chart is telling me. It is telling me to hold and enjoy the ride but I am a little gun shy after the GRMN fiasco.
Also, the last time NTRI was down this far was '05. How far back do you consider strong support to be?
Posted by Laney | 10/04/2007 12:54:00 PM
This seems to be one of those days for me! Everything I've touched has gone DOWN! I think I will sell out of everything today and take a few days off! Got into LDK early and then it TANKED! Oh well. I have still had the best three weeks overall! Just gave back some profits, no capital. Tomorrow is another trading day!
As a new trader it helps to read the advice that everyone gives! Today has just been one of those days, trading and at work!
scott aka tallred
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:55:00 PM
Thanks for the info Jeff. I may take down a contract just for fun, haha.
Also, if I have pics to send should I send them to your email? I figured maybe I would send some pics so people could make fun of me and introduce myself more and feel "official", lol. Partly because I don't think my profile works when I post on here, does it?
thanks again for everything.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 12:58:00 PM
Raimo, You're too funny! Dan isn't much of a drinkin' man, but I think he was seriously considering it last night. I just hope it's over for him soon.
I have a question. Will someone elaborate on the conversation between Ben & Jeff? I was totally lost in what they were telling us.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:10:00 PM
Brett,
Take a look at old blog friend GPI for a put.
On my second profit run with this one.
Rd
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:12:00 PM
Laney,
Are you in NTRI?
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 01:13:00 PM
Barbara,
Jeff and Ben were discussing holding RIMM over tonight's earnings release.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/04/2007 01:14:00 PM
Look at RIMM cracking $100 in the final hour of trading. Some traders are anticipating a good earnings report. I am holding a reduced position.
Posted by Joel R. | 10/04/2007 01:15:00 PM
Yes, Jeff, I am. I only have one contract so getting out of half is not an option. I don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth but I also don't want to leave profits on the table.
I was wondering what the psychology behind this kind of drop is. Or does psychology not play a part at all, just price action?
Posted by Laney | 10/04/2007 01:17:00 PM
have you guys checked out GRMN ( i know we are not suppose to talk about :) )
massive move today.
Posted by mahmood | 10/04/2007 01:19:00 PM
Jeff,
Thanks for posting the slow-moving stocks! I printed it out for future reference.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/04/2007 01:21:00 PM
Laney,
NTRI is a gift as far as I am concerned. Those you take, and never look back...
Posted by Raimo | 10/04/2007 01:22:00 PM
Laney,
I don't know how else to say this...
TAKE PROFITS
Don't get greedy. A gift is a gift.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 01:28:00 PM
I hope everyone realizes that this list is the Dow 30.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 01:28:00 PM
Laney,
I agree with Raimo. NTRI has been slowly moving down for the last few hours so I am waiting toward the close and I am out. I am anticipating a bounce tomorrow( I would say Dead Cat Bounce but since I am a Veterinarian it wouldn't be appropriate).:)
Posted by Sean M. | 10/04/2007 01:31:00 PM
OK, thanks.
I always think that I am not greedy until I don't want to sell and realize that I am really, really greedy.
My husband also wants me to get out.
Posted by Laney | 10/04/2007 01:34:00 PM
Er, get out of the trade. Not get out altogther.
Posted by Laney | 10/04/2007 01:36:00 PM
MDC is at resistance. Not sure of what to make of the candle. Anyone care to share his/her thoughs?
Posted by Amy | 10/04/2007 01:37:00 PM
Ben (and Jeff),
I own a Oct 100 RIMM Call - would a OTM Put as a hedge make any sense?
Mark
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:38:00 PM
PULL OUT!!! PULL OUT!!!
Just sold my 100 contracts on NTRI and then... oh shoot... that was yet another dream.
I actually held LVS until today because... well... I had no choice. I ended up losing another 40 bucks. That I can handle.
DE and BIIB are both at great entry points for those who care. Now I have to go pick up my youngest daughter who just made the rep volleyball team.
We are very excited.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/04/2007 01:40:00 PM
Hey Jeff, I've got a question. And I'm sure it's been answered before. So please forgive me. I have BCSI and I'm getting fed up with it. It split yesterday and I'm contemplating getting out, but I only have my initial contracts. How does this work? I'm pretty sure it's all automatic but how long does it normally take the brokerages to get my extra options to me? Right now my account is showing I'm down hugely because of the split and I don't know how to intrepret it.
Dazed and confused.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/04/2007 01:44:00 PM
When should I get into HANS?
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/04/2007 01:45:00 PM
C&C
Usually a split means your options are now worth twice as many shares at half the price. At least that was the case for me in the past.
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/03/092103.asp
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:46:00 PM
VFC is doing what it's supposed to. And it's a put play at REE.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/04/2007 01:47:00 PM
Mark,
Hopefully Jeff will reply because I have just been trying to come up with a good answer and I don't know if I have one.
One scenario is that you do buy an OTM put, but going front month again is going to suffer from IV decay just like a call. However if you already have profits that could be a good way, depending on how many contracts you hold.
In my case, I am only going to buy 1 which will be approx 2% of my account, so there is no reason to hedge that as I am comfortable risking it.
Like Jeff said though, it is not wrong to take a profit, I doubt you'll see a 50 point gap again. The nice thing will be if it surprises it will likely break over 100 and then we have that 100 as the next support line and I can see it pulling back again.
Like I said, I don't really have any answers, haha. Sorry.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:48:00 PM
Sean! I just read that comment and I literally laughed out loud. I'm out of NTRI, I made over 400% profit and I can't believe that I was willing to risk that.
Must.Control.Emotion.
Posted by Laney | 10/04/2007 01:49:00 PM
Raimo,
Now might be a good time to post on your second rule. How long and how many times did you have to talk about REE before we got it.
We need you, man.
Okay. Brett, how about that burrito? We are expecting big things from ya.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:53:00 PM
A RIMM put might be the most expensive insurance on the planet right now.
I love betting red and black at the same time.
Not.
Just kidding. I would do this against a stock position perhaps, but I prefer straight speculation, not an overly expensive strangle. If you are interested in strangles, the key is getting in at least 3 weeks early or so...like I did on MSTR.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 01:53:00 PM
Ben,
Thanks. I'm up on the call about 20% today, I'm going to let that ride and add a way OTM put (85 strike) as a little insurance. Hopefully what Jeff heard is right and this thing explodes. Good luck.
Mark
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:54:00 PM
Lis,
Was that you in ISRG? I sold my October yesterday and bought Januarys. I think it needs more time than I gave it. Wasn't sure where you were on the trade.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:55:00 PM
Alright, I got some skin in the game now. 1 RIMM 100 oct call, WOOT! Haha.
And I'm already up .15 on it, man I am retiring early! ;-)
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 01:57:00 PM
Gang,
Please don't go buy calls today on RIMM. I have had RIMM calls forever, and this trade is so much different when the only thing at stake is unrealized gains.
Going out and buying calls today goes against everything we are trying to accomplish.
A trade like this is only a gamble. I assume everything I am told by anyone other than myself is wrong. I see risks and I see rewards, and I find balance between them. I am taking a small risk that I am comfortable with.
Tips are for waiters.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 02:01:00 PM
Michelle...i have jan $230 strike, it was OTM when i bought...
Posted by Tonya W | 10/04/2007 02:03:00 PM
RIMM is already running, up $2 no $3, no wait $1.50 i guess it's a little schitzo, ut oh now it is down $5, holy smokes it's falling, down $6...ok i need to step away from the computer and come back after 5pm
Posted by Tonya W | 10/04/2007 02:07:00 PM
I do not know if you guys have noticed this or not. But most recent flag breakout had a retest to the breakout point before they started moving again like SLB, SOHU, SINA, FWLT.
IS this normal for flags just like other price patterns?
By the way I took a Nov 110 Call on RIMM, the thought is that the whole options premium is at risk for this trade. Lets see what happpens. The position was up 20% by end of day in 30 minutes.
Posted by mahmood | 10/04/2007 02:07:00 PM
Jeff,
Thanks for that on RIMM. I wish I'd read it before I bought the put. I've had the call for a week, it's up a little, and I'll cross my fingers tonight. (There's a sound trading attitude!) Everyone have a great night.
Mark
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 02:08:00 PM
Mark,
Good deal. I just hope everyone understands the risk that this stock can go down tomorrow just as easy as it can go up.
Jeff
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 02:11:00 PM
Michelle,
That was me also in ISRG. I also have Octobers, and the Januarys are a good call.
Mark
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 02:12:00 PM
Hope no one straddled RIMM. Jeez. Only a $5 move?
Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go find a LAMR billboard to piss on.
Posted by Brett | 10/04/2007 02:13:00 PM
The night is young...
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 02:22:00 PM
Brett,
It is still moving. The news is good and the market seems to like it.
I think it will turn into $10.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 02:40:00 PM
Good post Jeff, and I agree this is a bad time to have gotten into RIMM. I understand in general even if you are risking 2% on a trade you want it to be high probability, and this isn't necessarily high especially with IV going against you, likely.
It added some excitement, I didn't risk much capital, and was willing to accept the possible outcomes.
Although I do feel bad doing it if it really is going against everything we are about, which it kind of is, haha.
I'll save the real gambling for Vegas in a couple weeks.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 02:44:00 PM
Brett,
Drink a six pack first and then soak the Lamar billboard for the group. Lamar is dead to me, of course, in a non-emotional sort of way.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/04/2007 02:49:00 PM
Ben, if you bought an Oct 85 put on RIMM this afternoon, it might have been me that sold it to you!
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/04/2007 03:07:00 PM
Doji,
I'll cop to the Oct 85 RIMM put. Live and learn.
Mark
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 03:11:00 PM
Brett ...
I laughed out loud with your Lamar post ... Earlier today .. I found a Lamar billboard here in TN and pissed on it at the same time I gave them a little money as I left them .... Good riddance ...
Bad fundamentals .. definitely a downer stock and that replacement has some idiots buying a bad stock ... RESEARCH folks (not aimed at the smart traders on this blog! ) ... not market placement ... ugh!
Posted by Benton | 10/04/2007 03:18:00 PM
Jeff,
I've got the pairs trade of the year. Long TSSP and Short LAMP. You could probably make about hmmmmmmm (carry the two) hmmmmmmmm NOTHING!
LONG: Loca Moca, RIMM, RESP (as long as it behaves)
Short: Beanie Weenie
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 03:29:00 PM
All this talk about RIMM and no applause for the $4.00 move in HANS today (and almost $8 of swing) on 8.5 million shares - 3 times normal volume. Give it up for the Monster (insert your favorite drink). Starting to look like the Hansen chart from a couple of years ago.
What a boondoggle on RIMM. Lot of volatility, but essentially a break even price. I guess we'll have to wait til tomorrow to see the real impact and try to distinguish it from the payroll report.
Posted by Joel R. | 10/04/2007 03:31:00 PM
RIMM
Wow! Watching the afterhours quotes stream by is almost like intraday. Afterhours volume is over 10 mil or 25% of the days total volume!! Oh, and down 2% too FWIW.
Posted by Matt | 10/04/2007 03:35:00 PM
Does anyone know Micrsoft Access, I need help creating a database.
Thanks.
bob@raimo.com
Posted by Raimo | 10/04/2007 03:38:00 PM
I felt a really bad pain in my abdomen so I went and pissed too. I passed for stones and they hurt like crazy. They were"
L
A
M
R
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 03:40:00 PM
Arty,
Judging how LAMR did today, I am sure those stones passed through your colon and not your bladder!
Lowes sells a porcelain repair kit.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/04/2007 03:58:00 PM
Sean, thanks.....I need a Yuengling
Sarah,
cclaunch@incentrasolutions.com
Thanks for the helping out with my flag search.
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 04:06:00 PM
Bob and Jodi,
And all you rambunctious Option Addicts out there. I have a topic for discussion around Bob's little teaser NAVZ. Nice call BTW Jodi.
For you that listened to me rambling on on the Mastertalk last night taking up all of the valuble Q&A time, you will notice a common theme between my last question and NAVZ.
There are a ton of great set ups out there right now but are flawed by a major component just like NAVZ. It would be a great PUT PLAY at resistance but like Jodi so cleverly caught, however, it is in the context of an uptrend. (I need not remind you what my grandma used to say).
Now if there are reversal patterns this makes this dichotomy solvable, H&S, Inverse H&S, Triple tops and bottoms etc. But with no reversal pattern what to do?
My question for discussion out there is, can there be a time in certain markets where it is EVER appropriate to take trades, with awesome set ups counter to the overriding trend??????
OK be easy on me!
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 04:24:00 PM
Anytime you like the risk, buddy.
Should I create a video on topic?
Posted by Option Addict | 10/04/2007 04:29:00 PM
First Jodi, now Arty...
You guys are getting good.....
Minds are working...
Posted by Raimo | 10/04/2007 04:30:00 PM
Here's (Dwight's) bullflag search especially for Arty, but I see he has already gotten help. Perhaps someone else may be interested.
the Power Prosearch goes like this (line by line):
1. Background - Stock Type - Optionable Stocks
2. Price Performance - Price of Stock - Between - 25 and 1000 (Max is just to make the search work)
3. Volume Indicators - 30 Day Average Volume - Between - 1000 and 200000 (remember, no commas)
(the ratio is 1:1000 so 1000 = 1 million shares)
4. Price Performance - Relative (Rel) Performance 6-week - High as Possible (ignore Min Max)
5. Price Performance - Rel Performance 1-week - Low as Possible (ignore Min Max)
Go down to step 3 and submit 50-75 results and start looking for Bull Flags. This search kicks out optionable stocks with high enough price and volume that are often in intermediate uptrends (6-week or greater), with a short-term (1-week) pullback (perhaps a Flag). For a Bear Flag just turn the Rel Performance 6-week to Low as Possible and the Rel Performance 1-week to High as Possible.
You can also use a Rel Performance 1-day high as possible and skip line 5 to find out who is moving today. You can use 1-week to find movers for the week and so on.
Great mastertalk last night Jeff.
Valerie w
Valerie W
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 04:33:00 PM
Jeff,
I would love a video on the topic of counter-trend trades. If my brain is working, I do not as a rule take counter-trend trades but would love to hear your opinion and the group discussion that I am sure will follow.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/04/2007 04:44:00 PM
DaKine-
Sorry you weren't answered earlier. Here's my take on LIFC.
Over the last 5 years this stock as been in an uptrend. Overall I think it looks good. If you're going by how this stock seems to move I think you were right on as far as target. It made a nice pop up today. I'd watch it tomorrow for a pullback. You just don't want this to fill the gap. Hope this helps.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/04/2007 04:47:00 PM
Jeff-
Thanks for the list of stocks. I've picked a few of those as option plays in the past and now I know why they sucked!
Thanks!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/04/2007 04:48:00 PM
Love the clip.
"You rush a miracle man, you get rotten miracles."
-Miracle Max
This is how we should choose the trades we get into.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/04/2007 04:54:00 PM
My name is Enigo Montoya...you killed LAMR...Prepare to die.
As for GT, you have been mostly dead all day!
Posted by Sean M. | 10/04/2007 05:10:00 PM
Jeff,
A little vid would be awesome! If you were asking me.
I blush!
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 05:22:00 PM
Can we make CSCO #31 on the list?
Cheers
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 05:23:00 PM
I'm curious if anybody has any objective rules they have successfully used for setting stop losses. Just read Jeff's post about setting them based on ATR, and am considering setting them based on 2 x ATR below (or above) the stock price. This formula would set my stop a little lower than I have been. My method now is basically a combo of calculating 3% below support, and then fine tuning by eye. However, I've been stopped out too often lately, and am interested in creating a clearer set of rules for myself that work to take the hemming and hawing element out of the decision process.
Thanks,
Peter
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 06:16:00 PM
Ha-ha-ha, Sean! That was funny. The Princess Bride, one of my favorites.
So...what's the verdict on RIMM?
Posted by Laney | 10/04/2007 07:02:00 PM
Liz,
Thanks for the feed back on LIFC. I will keep an eye out just in case of the pull back. I also got in SYNA today since it looked like a bounce off the MA.
RIMM-I have one word for that, "INCONCEIVABLE" I also liked that movie.
DaKine
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 07:12:00 PM
No more rhyming now I mean it!
Anybody want a peanut?
Posted by Brett | 10/04/2007 07:37:00 PM
Oh Brett you make me laugh,
but don't take me down that path!
Peter,
It seems as though that traders that can monitor their trades "ALL" day have not found a mechanical stop that works. I for one hate them so much I take some bigger losses than I should. That being said if you go back and search the Blog you can find people who have found some success with them.
And though I commented on it,
remember I don't know shit.
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/04/2007 07:46:00 PM
While I have a lot of freedom to watch the market, there have been some expensive afternoons where I have been away from the monitor with no stop. I think the mechanical nature of having a stop works for me in the that it provides me time freedom, and discipline.
What do those of you that don't use stops do when you have to be away from the market for a day or more? Liquidate or cross your fingers?
I know Arty, it's a tired subject, but I'm still dealing with it.
Peter
Posted by Anonymous | 10/04/2007 08:56:00 PM
"Am I going MAD, or did the word 'think' escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic land mass".
Peter-
I have to say that I concur with C4. I don't like them very much either but I do use them when I know that I won't be able to watch my trades for a few days. I usually go between 1 to 3% below where my support line(s) are drawn depending on what kind of trade I'm in. If it's a bounce or swing trade - 1%. If it's a trend trade and a little more long term - up to 3% depending on the way the stock usually moves.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/04/2007 09:01:00 PM
Jeff-
I really liked the marketcast tonight. I was reminded the other day that when you trade, the only thing you can control is risk. Thanks for another hammering into our brains.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/04/2007 09:08:00 PM
Amy,
I jumped into MDC near the close today. Once I read Brett’s request for a put, MDC was my thought right away. However, it is a little late and by the time most people read this, the labor report will be out and this trade, currently at REE, will either heading in the right direction or heading in the wrong direction. Or I guess, no direction at all.
I wouldn’t worry too much about the candle as it is near REE and this one seems to have really long wicks at the highs and lows. This candle you speak of, once confirmed of course, we will call a hanging man…
Peter, I only use hard stops when I know I will be away from the computer at the close and I have substantial profits in something that I, for one reason or another, will be exiting real soon and don’t want to give away too much that won’t be recovered because of the time constraints.
Good luck tomorrow (today) and always.
Posted by Logan | 10/05/2007 12:41:00 AM
Logan,
Thanks for your thoughts. I also got in MDC near the close. My analysis got a little blurred with that candle, but then I went back to the basics of trend and support/resistance. My target is around 38.50.
Amy...good morning, all.
Posted by Amy | 10/05/2007 03:34:00 AM
Michelle
Yes, I too have ISRG. I'm waiting to see what happens with it today to decide what my next step is- sell today if it reaches my target or buy an Oct. call like you did.
Posted by Lisa | 10/05/2007 05:41:00 AM
NAVZ-
I see a very large H&S forming beginning on 4/23 that is in the process of making the second half of the right shoulder. If my analysis is not full of brown matter, than Raimo is taking this trade as an anticipatory trade at a diagonal REE.
It just turned down from significant resistance at 65. Break below $47.50 would confirm the H&S.
How am I doing?
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/05/2007 05:46:00 AM
Consequently if my H&S viewing is right on NAVZ that is one fantastic risk/reward scenario that Raimo is jumping on even before the pattern confirms.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/05/2007 05:47:00 AM
Pardon my ignorance here, but NAVZ is still making higher highs and higher lows. Why would you think it is going down.
Both on weekly and chart and daily the MACD is above 0 to show uptrend. if it is H&S then we do not have any confirmation on pattern.
I just want to learn from you guys on why do you think it is heading down.
Posted by mahmood | 10/05/2007 05:58:00 AM
NAVZ...
I presented this trade to the blog for discussion, but no one is really biting...or are afraid too.
Discussion is a great learning tool..
I see two tings on NAVZ, and Jodi, Arty and Kim have now presented BOTH sides of the story...again, different traders see different things on the same stock.
One can look at NAVZ from Kims point of view...a perfect REE (clearly defined exit and your entry is right at it)...this presents a VERY low risk entry.
Jodi had picked up the fact that the stock is recently in an uptrend, and going short now is counter trend. So how do you trade this??
You have three options.
1) skip it
2) get in now at REE (well, yesterday was perfect), and see if the stock breaks the uptrending diag support line. If it breaks through, you are golden. If it bounces up and breaks through your HZ resistance line, your out with a small loss...or you could get out if it bounces off the uptrending diag support line too.
3) you go long on a bounce off the uptrending diag support line, which would be REE, and see if it breaks up through the HZ resistance line.
I am not telling which of the 3 ways I played this, so as to not influence anyone....
Trade away, it's friday , and I will miss the open..off hunting, see you all Monday.
Have a great weeekend addicts!
Posted by Raimo | 10/05/2007 06:16:00 AM
I bit! I had to wait til this morning when I had a clear head to really look at this thing objectively.
(I was also afraid of making an ass out of myself before the day even started. I decided to shed the chicken suit.)
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/05/2007 06:24:00 AM
FYI! jobless report is out and so far market is liking it. Futures are indicating a strong up open.
Posted by mahmood | 10/05/2007 06:37:00 AM
a perfect example of implied vol working for you....ISRG, closed down .09 yesterday and my (1) contract closed $70 higher.....
i thought that was interesting, now i need to finish my lucky charms and get my a$$ to work!! i am already late, jeeze!!!
looks like a good day is in the making....
Posted by Tonya W | 10/05/2007 07:02:00 AM
Jeff,
Superb Marketcast yesterday, as usual. I liked your answer about line in the sand where you said,"Become one with the stock." That struck me as something Yoda would say. Becoming one with the stock is something I aspire to.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/05/2007 07:08:00 AM
HANS is the next COke. Believe it!
Solar flare!!! So sunny my eyes hurt. FSLR lifetime highs. YGE going to $40. LDK is too cheap.
Posted by beanie11111 | 10/05/2007 07:21:00 AM
Become one with the stock. Merge yourself with FSLR.
Posted by beanie11111 | 10/05/2007 07:22:00 AM
Beanhead ... forget those ones ... they are done... try CCGY on for size!
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/05/2007 07:31:00 AM
CREG also ready for lift off for a speculative china stock play ... be careful with these as you may be able to get in easy but getting out could be a problem when the music stops. Buyer beware!
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/05/2007 07:36:00 AM
Sorry about posting to much but I like BG as a good REE.
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/05/2007 07:57:00 AM
Peter, I know you already got a couple answers on this but stops have been a real problem for me in the past. I was stopped out all the time using 1-3% and always it seemed at the worst time. So I asked the same thing you did and the answer that changed things for me was from Tim and his 2 x ATR with the 1-3% combo. Normally I just split the difference between 3% adn 2 x ATR as my hard stop (emergency) and then place my mental stop on the chart. This allows for insurance (like with GRMN) and also understand normal movements allows me to make the exit decision. Having said this, you should know that I HATE stops!
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/05/2007 08:02:00 AM
CELG at REE this morning.
Possible put entries today: AKAM, ADM, and CPS.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/05/2007 08:11:00 AM
Oh and thanks Tonya W.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/05/2007 08:14:00 AM
HUBG- looks like a double bottom and breakout today. Still need volume confirmation.
Let me know if you see something different.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/05/2007 08:25:00 AM
What is up with PCP?
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/05/2007 08:30:00 AM
PCP looks like it has a bad data tick creating that really long wick.
Posted by Joel R. | 10/05/2007 08:38:00 AM
TOS platform just had a message saying the BOX exchange is reporting bad Options data. may be PCP is showing it because of that
Posted by mahmood | 10/05/2007 08:43:00 AM
Jeff
Those two triangle b/o you mentioned the other day RBA and KHD are unbelievable. Thanks for the heads up on them
RIMM not that bad either, looks like another great week in the books for JK.
Congrats there big guy. You rock!
Posted by Jodi | 10/05/2007 08:47:00 AM
VMI looks good.
Love boring old bounce plays.
Posted by Sarah | 10/05/2007 08:57:00 AM
Peter,
I struggle with the stop no stop dilemma all of the time. Unfortunately I still work. However, I can spend the majority of my time monitoring the market. So what I do is I give Brett my log in and password and he trades for me while I am in meetings. (LOL Just Kidding).
Seriously, I use the exact same set up as Liz as far as stop losses, mostly 1% below support option swings, and 3% for longer term positions. I also like to use both Diag and Horz support whenever possible. I block out between 1:30 and 2:00 everyday on my calender as non-negoitable time.
Then I exit trades just prior to the close that have voilated my lines in the sand (LIKE LAMR Violated me).
Moreover, when I am "out of Touch" I will set stops especially if for longer than an hour. That may seem like a lot of effort but it works for me.
Hope that helps a little.
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/05/2007 09:05:00 AM
C4-
If i were trading for you, i'd be loading up on THE PHOENIX right now. $17 is new support and I'm reiterating my $100 price target on it.
Oh, I didn't tell you? I was hired by Broadpoint yesterday. Apparently you can rate a stock whatever you want there and it doesn't really matter.
Posted by Brett | 10/05/2007 09:11:00 AM
COLM triangle breakdown and retest today on $#!+ volume. Now the stock is below all conceivable levels of support and earnings 3 weeks away, so implied volatility should continue rising until then. I like the entry here.
Posted by Brett | 10/05/2007 09:13:00 AM
Brett,
BPHX, how did you come up w/ $100 target or is that the java monster talking?
Nevertheless nice looking chart.
Posted by Sarah | 10/05/2007 09:19:00 AM
Thanks for all your input on stops- much appreciated. What a great forum!
In recent history, if I had gone with the 2 x ATR method I wouldn't have been stopped out (barely) from NVDA, ELON, KOP, VSEA, DWSN- ouch! I definitely had them on too tight a leash, and cost myself gains in an effort to protect them. The exciting part is with continuing to dial in aspects of my method that are not working like this, profits are coming back. The DOW being up 1,000 points in the last 6 weeks probably doesn't hurt either ;)
Peter
Posted by Anonymous | 10/05/2007 09:33:00 AM
I see POT in a sym triangle for today's action. Its right at the apex.
Posted by Calvin | 10/05/2007 09:34:00 AM
Sarah,
This stock has the heart of a champion. It's the fire in the belly of the bird. When you look into its eyes, if you can avoid being blinded by the flames, you can see it. Nothing will stop it.
As for my $100 price target, I took the price of $11 where I started accumulating shares and slapped a multiple of 9 on it, because that's how many times I added to it on the dips. See, that's how Broadpoint does its analysis.
Posted by Brett | 10/05/2007 09:35:00 AM
SYNA - Is anyone trading this? It looks to have bounced off the bottom of a "channel up" pattern. I project it to go up 6 pts. Would anyone care to offer your .02? Any feedback is appreciated.
VeroBarbara
Posted by VolSmile | 10/05/2007 09:50:00 AM
Brett,
lol. Now that's a compelling argument.
Posted by Sarah | 10/05/2007 09:50:00 AM
I'm on a BEAR hunt .... Not Raimo's kind but PUT kind ...
Patti - thanks for yours ... I also have ODP and WNR on the list ... because this kind of day doesn't go forever ...
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated .. Balance is the spice of the portfolio ... I'm out of balance right now.....
Posted by Benton | 10/05/2007 10:00:00 AM
Oh ... by the way .. The Master reigns .. Mr. Kohler once again is sweeping in CALL profits on RIMM today along with a few of you other brave souls .. Congrats to you all ...
I loaded up on common stock in the last 15 minutes yesterday .. stopped $1 under and $12 over ... made a nice profit this AM ... and yes, it could have been much higher with the option .. but it was a risk I wasn't willing to take this time around ..
Don't you like the variety of ways we have to win or lose around here? Thanks to this blog for teaching those 'options' ....
Posted by Benton | 10/05/2007 10:04:00 AM
Clean Cups!
Posted by Joel R. | 10/05/2007 10:11:00 AM
Brett,
You know I have told you time and time again don't look into the eyes of the BIRD it will burn you. And the fire that shoots form its wings.
My price target is only $60 as I entered around 15 and have added 4 times.
I think the Phoenix may have even had a sip of Brett's Mean Bean this morning so don't be surprised by an all time high!
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/05/2007 10:48:00 AM
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/08/2007 01:11:00 PM