Jeff,

That is a great quote, and what I clearly strive for every day.

Maybe one day I'll make it.....

Boy, after going through my watch lists tonight it sure seems like the market is into buying the dogs of wall street this week. Lots of significant upward moves on increasing volume on downtrending stocks.

Do we have to change thought patterns again?

Jeff,

I mean this in all sincerity:

Your individualism is what has brought you the most success. It's what attracted me to your style to begin with. To have the kind of years you've had, you need to think different from the rest of the traders. You've taught me the nuts and bolts of how to do this, and I wouldn't be where I am if it weren't for you.

You always help when you know I need it, but you always hang back and say nothing when you know I need to make my own decision on something. It frustrates me often, but it works.

Oh, and you still owe me a post.

To everyone raving about the Mean Bean, please try the Big Black or the Loca Moca before you come to a conclusion. I urge you.

Jeff

You are absolutely brilliant. The more I know about trading, the more I know I don't know. The more I don't know, the more I ask, and the more I ask, the more I realize how lucky we all are to have you at the end of our emails....a complete wealth of knowledge at the tips of our fingers.
I admire that you are different, it's a rocky road and it takes a lot of courage. You are definitely one of a kind and I'm honoured to know you.

Jeff-
Love the videos today. I could relate to Chris when he said that the video made him sick in the end because it reminded him of his account. That was my account!!! @$%$&%*(&()*$%^#@!!!!!

And now that's out of the way...

I was drawn to this blog and to you as a teacher because you stand apart and you have a way of making trading understandable. You don't complicate everything. I like that.

I went to a conference this weekend and they were discussing the importance of mentors in your life when you want to be successful (in all areas of your life). There is no such thing as a "self-made millionaire". You can't do it very well by yourself successfully and I realized that I have you and Brett and Raimo and a whole bunch of other traders on this blog as mentors and supporters. I'm super lucky and grateful. So thank you Jeff for the great quote which will now be above my desk and thanks for your continued teachings.

Now back to computer hell.

liz

Jeff,

I am a bit concerned that when you said "I have delivered a big surprise to the labor market" that you have quit your day job. Am I right/wrong??

I hope all is ok. We need you bud but of course want the best for you and your family.

I can't speak for everyone, but I am convinced there is a fair amount of us that would have quit trading and thrown a lot of money in IT education away if it were not for you and setting up this community.

That is a great quote! Already cut out and hanging on the wall in my office with other important notes, such as REE and RTR.

Jeff--your teaching style is awesome. I started out sitting through many trading rooms and master talks over the past year, but always went back to yours. You truly have a gift and you can feel your passion for it.

Brett--I'm with you on the Java Monster. The Mean Bean sucks compared to the other two!

And Va Beach Girl--Everything I looked at today that was supposed to be bearish was showing strength. Since I had to toss out LAMR yesterday, I need to replace it sooner rather than later. Still looking.

LisaG,

The only 2 bearish position I have left are CNA and RL. I am a little concerned about RL based on volume today but I have a very tight stip on it at about 79.

You are correct very difficult to find bearish plays. I will do some more search tonight and see if I can come up with a list.

Sure could have used some bearish plays today as the bullish ones were craping also.

Mahmood,
CNA still looks pretty good. Looks like it is rolling over from that resistance/support around 39.50 or so. I see the next line around 37.50 where it bounced on 9/18.

Not sure what to make of RL. Looks like some indecision going on there. I'm not that great with the candlestick. Actually getting ready to purchase a book so I can get smarter on them.

Arty,

You asked in mastertalk about a flag search. I have Dave Johnson's flag search, if you want it. Post your email and I'll send it over.

Brett,
Had my very first Java Monster today, Mean Bean, not bad. tomorrow Loca Moca. those were the only 2 flavors.

Jeff,
It took me all evening to catch up on the blog today. That in itself is a testament to your abilities as a teacher, motivator, mentor and of course, trader. From the first time I heard you in a Master Talk, well over a year ago, when you told us that you trade OTM frequently and dared to be different from all the other instructors, I knew that YOU were the one to watch and emulate. You are living proof that that quote is gospel.

So please just keep on doing what it is you are doing.

OAs - if you can't find any bearish plays to balance out your portfolio, try some QID or SDS or TWM depending on what your bullish plays are. These are the Ultra short ETFs that inversely correlate to the Qs, S&P and IWM. Think of it as insurance.

I hope you all at least buy $200 (no more than $500 please) worth of TSSP. This lotto ticket might be able to buy you a house in some parts of the country, free-and-clear.

Give it a few years.

GnR rocks
JK rocks
JKB rocks

the fact that i logged onto master talk and saw that kelly was teaching session 1, so i went to session2 really sucks b/c i missed jeff's presentation, but pat did a good job teching stuff i never knew (mostly economics).....i should have checked the blog for clues, i guess i will watch the recorded version tomorrow...

ps LVS and WYNN bite the big one

have a good night

oh Jeff, thanks for the flashback to my teenage yrs.....or shall i say the trouble making yrs...did i tell you my old physics teacher was at the wedding?? he refreshed my memory of all the "stunts" we used to pull...yie yie yie

bzzzzz.....bzzzzz....bzzzzzzz...what is that annoying sound???......SWAT! Sorry beannie, now where is my Windex, I need to clean this up!!

Sarah,
i emailed Dave about the flag search a while back but haven't heard from him yet.

Would you mind sharing the flag search w/ me as well?

My email: kevin9679@gmail.com

Thanks!

As far as another bearish play. RHD looks like it may be a good entry soon. Keep an eye out!

-Kevin

Raimo, my friend, another good one. I will reply as soon as I know you are vulnerable. I realize the gun is just a facade for your female side. Secretly, I know you are vying for a spot on Dancing With the Stars. Good luck and keep your toes pointed during the Tango!!

PP

Option Addicts, and yes, Jeff,

I am constantly receiving posts and private e-mails from many of you, 100% of which is either a chart to look at or a post of support and friendship.

While it is all flattering, I'd like to take a few lines here to thank all of you, be it a new or seasoned trader or a new or seasoned OA crony..but in either case, thanks, because if not for all of you, my trading would suck. For one thing, by allowing me to share my experinces, analysis, techniques, by allowing me to help you, I have received so much more back from you.

I have received an education, lots of friendships, and that makes all of you golden in my book. Even the PP.

Anyway, you guys are making me all mushy here...

I just wanted to say thanks.....this is a very cool place....now lets see if I can get a full day of cable working..

Trade on, you guys rock.....

Doji Girl,

Wow! Wish I had a V8! That is a great idea. Why do those never come to me as an option? No pun intended...

I'm going to put those in my bearish watch list as a thundering reminder.

Thanks, Kim

kevin,

The bull flag search that Dave talks about is

Volume > 1000000
Price b/w 20 - 200
Relative Performance 12 weeks high as possible
Relative performance 6 week high as possible
Relative performance 1 week low as possible


Some variations to it are 1 week pull back can be a 4 day pull back.

For a bear flag you can do the reverse.

Enjoy

Look like HANS is getting creamed in the premarket to continue to big slide from yesterday's high of $61.50. I'm just going to guess it's a downgrade on valuation, since that seems to be the weapon of choice for analysts late to the party. This one probably had his first Big Black yesterday morning and realized he needed to be a part of this runaway train.

As long as we're discussing analysts...

Would anyone care to comment on the NTRI upgrade monday? Hope there's a lengthy investigation into that one.

Brett,
Are you saying, on HANS, that the analysts do this on purpose so they can get the stock at a cheaper price and then enjoy what everyone here has been enjoying?

Brett, isn't NTRI an oxymoron. A diet company making your portfolio fat....interesting. Enjoying the ride too.

Jeff, great quote...thank you. YOUR style of trading is fabulous and I am glad that you share it with all of us.

I reviewed some of my trades last night and woke up at 5 with an idea on something to look at.
I came in all charged up, logged on to Bloomberg which always puts a quote of the day on the start-up page. Todays was:
"However beautiful the strategy you should always look at the results."....Winston Churchill

Jamie

No, Laney. I would NEVER suggest that analysts manipulate the market. I'm sure they're all absolutely shocked when they downgrade a stock and then it magically goes down afterward. And being the honorable saints that they are, I'm sure NO ONE at their firms profits from this event.

yes, Laney, I think analysts are morons. and rather than get angry with them, i profit from them.

Hey Raimo

What a nice post..... after saying all that stuff, we're catching on....you're not the tough guy you claim to be. Pretty soon, I expect you to change your picture to one where you are holding a teddy bear ;)

Brett,
Do I detect a hint of sarcasm this fine morning? :-) I sometimes feel like the slow kid in the back and I like to be clear about what I am reading. Thank for the heads up.

Oh, and I couldn't find anything about NTRI being upgraded except that it was upgraded.

tos says BCSI is priced at $41.46 ??? will someone check to confirm or disprove this???

Tonya,

BCSI split 2-1.

oh i see, a stock split for BCSI

Down it goes...

NTRI is shedding heft faster than its customers! If there are any left.

Someone please shoot down LAMR. This senseless buying has to stop.

BLUD is moving pretty big off of positive earnings last evening.

RESP finally over 50. And with that I am off to the zoo.
Have a great day everyone!

HANS is trying to come back
LIFC is off to the races

hey i wanna go to the zoo....

DE ??? good entry??

LAMR needs to go on the NTRI diet!

WHR turning down from resistance

FWLT at REE?

CSCO looks like a good entry.
Barry

BIIB is making a perfect double bottom on the 15 minute chart - no breakout yet. And would be a good entry at 66.5 with a stop below 65.

this is a flag on daily graph with support at 30DMA. Do you own analysis if you want to trade this

Brett.....when you look at ISRG what do you see as a price target?? i start the ascending line of my triangle on 8/16 or 8/17 around $190 and have my resistance line drawn in around $230, which gives me a target of $270....i thought someone said they had a $50-$60 projected movement, that would mean they started drawing on 7/20 when price was around $175.....the resistance area from july and early aug was closer to $215, so does that make this part of the triangle invalid??? sorry this is so wordy, i hope it makes sense....

Tonya
I drew my lines exactly as you did with the same target- Mark and Michelle each have different targets. I'm a little confused on whether I am seeing it right or not.

Hi Jeff,
I was wondering if you can give me some advice - it seems that lately I am getting ZERO follow-thru on my breakout plays. For example: CSCO and DKS. Turds like these really annoy me and are putting a beating on my account and confidence alike. Any advice buddy?
Stephen in Buenos Aires

WOW
is anyone experiencing this volatility. It seems that if there is a move up, it vanishes completely in a day.

Look at Dakt, I sold yesterday expecting a pull back. CVS, cmi goes up down. SLb pbr

This is like pulling teeth, china up down, It seems that you have to take your profits fast or they disappear. Anyone with me here?

Stephen....on DKS where was your break out? i see a break out on 8/21 or 8/22 with beautiful follow through, where did you get in? on CSCO i see an ascend tri breakout on 9/26 with a rest yesterday....the day is early and todays candle is scary, but i have seen stock prices dip intraday only to close flat or a little positive by the end of the day....that is why i wait til the end of the day to make selling decisions....i know i'm not jeff but i hope it helps a little

lis...thanks thanks for your perspective

All you NILE holders-

I think that it is showing some real strength, refusing to close below $94-ish. But, I am concerned that the more it knocks on that $94 door, it will open and crash. Anyone else see something that I am not?

David,
I held onto DAKT. Yesterday's price action was strong, with volume, and it blew through that $30 line.

I know what you mean though. It's like watching someone water ski for the first time. Their up! Their down!

RIMM and POT looking well today. Rimm announces earnings today at 5pm.

yeah, perfect example of letting the trade come to "you".....i missed the MLM entry, so i placed a buy order at the price i wanted to pay, i almost cancelled it this morning thinking it would never get back down to the price i was willing to pay BUT i just checked and seems like MLM dipped down over $3 this morning and i got my fill and now that it is only down $1.94 i am already positive in the trade (yes, the little things get me excited....well sometimes)

Hi Tonya
I got in on DKS on 10/1 when the price broke the downsloping trendline of the flag. On CSCO I got in on 9/26 like you mentioned and it just has been worthless since then. Todays candle is breaking all sorts of support so I dumped it. I know it could go back up later in the day like you mentioned, but it could also keep selling off - the volume huge compared to recent activity. I castrate trades when they are not obedient:) Thanks for the help - Ill take advice from anybody willing to give it:)
Stephen

JEEPERS!!!! is there a such thing as the terrible ones (instead of the terrible twos)? i turn my back on xavier and he is drawing on the leather couch with his bottle (completely covered in milk), then as i am cleaning it he starts fussing and i see him tangled up in the bar stool like a pretzel....i think it's nap time

OK, now here comes NILE and HANS.


Tonya,
I am here to tell you that there are terrible ones, twos, threes, sevens and tens! :-)

Jeff,
We are glad you are "different."
Following the crowd is for sheep.

My kids always say when we see a picture of a tryceratops (not sure about spelling) -- they "never give up." I don't know which book or movie they heard that from, but they say it every time.

Thanks for teaching us to be different and never give up.

Trade on,
Michelle

Look at the strength in HANS. It does seems that the downgrade was just to let some people in at cheeper price.

have a look at FCN's volume

From Jeff's list, it is winding tight/

Dan&Barbara...thanks for bringing POT to my attention, i hadn't made it that far down my watchlist yet

Laney...yie yei yei!!!

Do we think it is safe to run out and get a MEAN BEAN yet?
Barry

Tonya,
what is yie, yie? When I read it I feel like I'm putting a hex on something :)

ANF is at ree after breakout yesterday, see what I mean.

ALso ODP is turning down.

I took KLAC in anticipation, but there is another entry if it breaks 53

Jodi....sorry, i went "home" last week (new york) and i brought back some of the lingo....just picture me with my hands in the air, shaking my head, and rolling my eyes.....maybe "oh brother" or "ahh great" would have been better.... (lol)

LFC is up and running again

Anyone got any good put entries today? Let's have a contest. Winner gets a great breakout trade emailed to them.

Hi OA's,

I'm new to the blog but, have been following for a few months. Jeff is so helpful and all of the information has been great.

I am having trouble analyzing LIFC and could use a little help here. I have my target areound $43.00- $44.00. Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks,
DaKine

Brett

odp, omx

your choice

Brett,

I do not know if they are ready to enter but here are some bearish one I am tracking

HD, GCI, LEN, KBH, NYT, MAS, RYL, FDX, BC, ODP and RF.

Also I am in RL right now

Share you thought on these please

Brett...

I have a great short for you.

4 letters.

N not going up
I I think I am right
L Losing value
E EAK! I know this post I am going to get hammered for!!!

Raimo-


F - you're a gimp.

Our lotto ticket is leaving the train station!

---

Buy TSSP only if you believe in the solar/alternative energy bull market.

TSSP trades@ .0006

The stock is a pinksheet. I have not play anything less than $10 in awhile. But i truly believe in the solar and alternative energy super bull market that will last another 4-5 years. If it turns out to be the case, ALL SOLAR AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY stocks will fly, regardless of whether they're big or small.

At one point, TSSP traded at $0.35 several years ago. That is nearly 600 times the current price. I know there's been alot of dilution since then but it's a very small cap company, nevertheless. If the solars become white hot, eventually i see TSSP trading above $.35 . I don't mind increasing my stake 600 times. For every $100 invested, it could get you $60,000 when and if the solars become white hot.

Please play no more than $500 and consider it a lottery ticket only. I'm personally only playing $200 for this lotto, but could add more as it rises and as the solars really take off. I plan to hold for a few years.

Good luck.

I am also raising my VMW target to $300.

i am in puts in ODP, MTH, and MNST. Most are looking pretty good today and could still possibly be good entries.

Mahmood,

Thank you, I like ODP, but i'm already in OMX.

How about we do a put play on beanie weenie.


Michelle

Brett...

you want a short one at REE
I have a chart for you to see
I been holding it back just for me
but what the heck, check out NAVZ....

Tonya W - I have not yet tried that buy stop approach. Do you use TOS for that and if so do you just have a limit buy?

Chris, sorry the ants got to your sandwich but I sent it FedEx anyway. As I did not have enough money (account going down and all) they sent it slow boat and so look for it around Christmas time. Hey, at least the ants will probably be dead.

Now to get to work on some trades.

Be nice to CF....

NEU

Add this to the list

Beanie,

I took your advice and put all of my account into TSSP.

You better be right or I will hunt you down and make you my pig.

Ever seen Deliverance?

Brett i have nothing new to offer for bearish plays..... WHR, ODP, OMX
Raimo better put a sock in it ;-)

Bob....i haven't called it a "buy stop", but if that is the technical term then so be it...i just figure where i think the option price would be at the price i want to get in at....i use the the theo price under the trade tab on TOS and if i think the stock price need to fall about $3 then i put that in the theo calc and it gives you a price, i would say it's not a perfect way, but as you know my computer time is limited during the day, so it helps when i can't monitor my watchlist all day long looking for entries.....it seems to work pretty good for me....hope this helps,if not email me and i will try to explain it better...

MFW- Desc. triangle at resistance

Raimo
CF looks more like a buy than a short

betred

Bear idea - GES close below 50? The last several times it has hit a pivot high, it has broken down nicely.

A perefct REE.....

Yes, go China....

SNP...i am in. lets rock

Tonya, thanks and just emailed you.

HUBG (from jeff's watchlist) is turning dwn, creating the final leg of a desc triangle, support at $30

Raimo,

I don't like it when you put the thumbs down on NILE,since I'm long. Although the bounce appears to be failing. It's sooo close.

or JAH is turning dwn from resistance, has been in a channel for a while, also from jeff's watchlist

JCP turning dwn from resistance

MCHP at support

UNT still hovering at support

ok Brett that what i got....

Sarah,

Think of NILE like a dirt bike, spinning its wheels, kicking dirt everywhere. That's the area it's in right now. When it leaves the stratosphere, none of this will matter.

Check out ACO.

Brett
how about
NIHD
WCC
KSS?

Alright guys.

It's been awhile.

It hasn't worked in awhile.

But since all Caribou Coffees have closed in the Omaha area.

I have switched to the Java Monster.

But I haven't had a burrito.

In quite some time.

Strap yourselves in.

HB - watch for close below 54.

is BCSI broken??

Brett,

I'm holding up my cup of moca loca to you.and yes still am fine w/ NILE the day is far from over, I just want it to go up.

BTW, mean bean and moca loca taste the same to me. Whatever it takes to get my trading to keep moving in the right directon.

Tonya W

BCSI: I have a stop below 40. It sure is close. Anyone else's thoughts?

Brett,
I still like my caffeine hot. How about a white mocha (am I remembering that right?) to top it off? (laughter)

Michelle

CF...I never said it was a short, I just said be nice to it....but yes, I went long..obviously

Sarah,

FOR THE RECORD..I HOPE NILE ROCKETS ONWARDS AND UPWARDS, my previous NILE lingo was directed at Brett...and only as a goof...

BCSI - I'm out if it closes below $39.60 .. In my view, it doesn't appear broken at this point - mid-day .... Had to redraw everything after the split ... but all seems in tact .. unless....

I purchased 3 Rimm contracts, $76.62 strike, on 08/27/07. Earnings are being announced today at 5pm. I REALLY want to hold, but, I know all too well, it is a flip of the coin as to which way it will go. I am thinking about selling 2 contracts and playing with the other. Thoughts please.

well if you guys want a good laugh...i just pulled a soccer ball out of the toilet, yes xavier is on a role today!!! him and the dog are tag teaming me today (lol) maybe i should have gone to work!!!

thanks for the reassurance on BCSI, i have my line drawn in just about $40....

bob i hit you back, check your email, if you need more help send my your phone # and i will call you when i get home from the chiropractor, maybe ~ 4:00 florida time

OI...very nice! Was that Brett's or Raimo's?

Anyone have a target for this? Not sure how to figure this one. Would appreciate any comments on how you figured it out.

Scoot,

I agree on GES - looks like a good PUT maybe down to $37.50 area

David in NH

Dan & Barbara,

My take is it depends on your risk tolerance if RIMM falls on the news. Some play a straddle on this but you'd need to have purchased last week.

Congrats to all who have HANS. I didn't have my wits about me to get in on the drop this am. I got PCLN and look where it is..down .05.

--Patti

Dan and Barbara,
You said it, it's a flip of the coin. If you hold and it goes up, you'll be a hero. If you hold and it goes down, you'll kick yourself.

I've had trades go both ways over earnings.

Michelle

Dan and Barbara ... I held over last earnings with RIMM ... made a boat load .... I had contracts going into this week and sold ... Why? iPhone . I had no good indication as to what damage that might have done to RIMM this QTR ... I considered holding 1 contract but backed out of it too. May cost me some profits but for me, this go around, better safe than sorry!

Good luck with your decision.

Tonya,
I have a laundry list of things that I have fished out of the toilet. I feel your pain, it's never fun.


Can we talk NTRI? I am wondering if once a stock has a big gap down on news if it traditionally will stay down. NTRI has a history of this in the past, too. I was looking at GRMN and DNDN and this seems to be the trend.

I am trying to take emotion out of the equation and look strictly at what the chart is telling me. It is telling me to hold and enjoy the ride but I am a little gun shy after the GRMN fiasco.

Any thoughts?

Also, the last time NTRI was down this far was '05. How far back do you consider strong support to be?

Patti...i am just glad that jeff, bret, and raimo have preached "patience" til they were blue in the face, oh and waiting til the end of the day to make your sell decisions.....this time last yr i would have sold my HANS for sure !!! i wasn't savy enough to buy more on the dip, but i still have what i have...

Dan & Barbara,

I like getting paid, so I'd be selling and collecting my paycheck on RIMM. If you wanted to let something hold over, sell two, keep one.

I think Benton has it on RIMM, I was just thinking about it and figured this will not be the same as last time, not to mention it has ran up so much, generally after doing that going into earnings it will pull back, but you never know for sure.

New interest from smart phones due to the iphone may have helped but I don't think so right now, I just think the regular consumer bought the iphone and the same type of customer bought the blackberry.

Just my thoughts, I guess we will see later today.

Ben

OI,

I posted when I took OI at REE as a trendline bounce on 9/25, and in anticipation of an ascending triangle breakout. My target is $49 based on the ascending triangle being 7pts....

Benton, Thanks for the insight on RIMM.

This has been a hectic week. Dan is going through passing a kidney stone. We ended up in the emergency room Sunday. And now we're just waiting for the "birth". It seems to be really bad at night, so very short on sleep!

I also went long this morning on ACH..a weaker of my REE entry's, but I have been playing china since last year, so I have a good relationship/track record with some of these stocks...

Not to try and influence anyone here...

But I heard RIMM is supposed to have it's best quarter ever.

I have still reduced my position size heading into earnings.

I like to gamble.

I love lamp.

sorry for the excessive posts here, it's just nice to have my cable service back after two days..

PS- Clean Cups

Brett,

I'll go AEM. Setting up a small H&S at the top of a trend. Its bouncing off the 30 day now setting up the right shoulder. Not actionable yet....but can be put on a bearish watch list .

Jamie

Brett or someone,

What's your take on NILE now that it has dropped?

--Patti

KIDNEY STONES!!!

YIKES! Had those myself a few years ago...do not look up what they look like on the internet...I don't know what sick gothic torture those things are derived from......

My advice Dan,...... Johnny Walker Blue Label, start now, don't stop till the bottle is empty..

I did not feel a thing...