Jeff,

no bearish bounces?

take a look at FSLR about to break out ascending triangle. TSL also but not optionable.

Also CF are we too late to enter?
nice trending stock I say it keeps on going after resistance.

Good morning Jeff & fellow option addicts:
CME is at its descending resistance line; if it turns down, what are your thoughts about a put with a target of ~$540 (ascending support)?

Debbie, wait for a confirmation on the CME pattern. it could break out either way.

Anyone get shaken out of CTSH this morning? I hope not. Not yet, anyway. I am watching closely to exit my calls and buy puts if that support fails.

SNDA is offering a nice entry on this little pullback which of course i don't expect to last long.

POT is flying HIIIGGGGHHHHHHHH!

Also, anyone finding these bearish plays suck? Waiting for GYMB, LEH and RATE to fall is like watching paint dry.

BLUD reported good earnings after the bell yesterday; popping today on great volume.

Brett take a look at ROK for bearish play. Its too late unless it brakes that support @57.50 should continue down for 5 points

CTSH...still in the trade with my line drawn in the sand..

Anyone bail on CAL yet? I'm about to cut it off. any words of wisdom?

Sarah

ACI making a nice run.....

Man, that is one nasty candle on ROK!

Glad i exited AGU puts yesterday, but i'm not so glad i was patient this morning when i wanted to jump on this breakout. Hopefully by day's end it will come back in a little.

Sarah, it's right at horizontal resistance, and you can wait it out, but I got out when it gapped up to the trendline resistance 2 days ago.

Brett,

thanks, I'll wait till the close to see if resistance holds. It's testing my patience.

Sarah

I feel an end of day rally coming on..anyone else??

have you guys heard of "Wolfe Wave"? what do you guys think of it?

DE

Wolfe Wave???

Anyone still in PCP? I am letting it run so long as it does not close below $105.50...

Thoughts??

Brett

at what point are you out of CTSH??

I'm out at a close below $85..

I know do not look at intra profits but what happened to POT? Still nice but that $5+ move was amazing. Looks like an end of day rally to me too and I was out of CAL on that first big up candle.
Bob H.

Happy Day B4 Long Weekend Everyone!

Anyone care to express their opinion on DRQ? It's been in a fairly strong sideway's channel since May and is breaking out of it today. Looks good to me except light volume. What say you guys? Good, Bad or Ugly?

Jodi
Canuck

Jodi,
I was also looking at DRQ to see where it closes. The volume isn't really light considering we're not halfway thru the trading day yet and it came down to touch it's new support and is heading higher.

I like DRQ it seems a little overbought, but if you like the play you have good resistance at 43. YOu could buy it now and use that as your stop or wait until it re tests.
Also you have a three day weekend. Will the call deteriorate more over the extra day?

hope that helps
I like to see how others feel about it too

ACL is looking good right before earnings.

Sarah,

Still in on CAL - June 35's - Will see if the retest of the neckline will hold and if not gonna bail. Not sure if today will be the day, but tough to watch it climb. Thoughts?

Bob,

$85 is really my support line on CTSH. I really like today's action and perhaps it's hammering out a short-term double bottom here. Clearly there's support here.

Me too, that is my line in the sand.

Have a great wkd everyone, till next week, Happy Easter to all...

I hate weekends. The only think I hate more than weekends are work days that the market's closed.

I'm only kidding (if my wife's reading this).

Not me, I love weekends...off to the Endless Mountains of PA for some 4 wheelin, shootin, and putting up more deer stands for the hunting season!

Have great wkd..., Lets keep X going!!!!

SELF SABOTAGE!!

I break even every month. I don't have a big profit or loss. Just the same numbers. It is like I don't allow myself to take a profit (or a loss).
This is where I think I go wrong in my trading...
I take trades that have a good risk-reward ratio, but at the first sign of weakness, I exit. PCAR is a perfect example. I took the trade last week on the bounce. It moved up for a few days. Things are good. But now what? I don't know how to read the chart for weakness. I was taught that when the MACD steps down, that this is a sign of weakness. This is killing my profit potential. I would like to hear your perceptions of what PCAR is doing. I see that it could be just moving sideways and using 74.25 as short term support.
I struggle with "it's better to get out with a profit than take a loss". I hear that a lot. Maybe it is a patience thing, and I need to trust the price and let my winners run. I have been trading for quite a while and I am not living up to my potential as a trader.
Please help,
Amy

Amy,

I see PCAR making higher highs and higher lows, like a lot of great trending stocks. For trending stocks, i wouldn't even look at the oscillators. Buy at support and sell when it's broken or when your stop (i use the ATR) is hit. Oscillators work better for stocks that are going sideways.

I have found (through rigorous testing) that taking losses is actually a very good thing because it allows my trades the flexibility to see their patterns and trends through. If I'm good with my setups then i know i'm going to hit some home runs, and those small losers are nothing.

Amy, the only way to learn this stuff is to take your lumps and figure it out. You need to find your own way through the dark tunnel, and that is why so many people must quit. It's really not for everyone. Jeff and the rest of us here are a great resource, but it's your own soul searching that will pull you through it. If you can't master your own psychology, you are just going to continue to sabotage yourself.

Remember: Set up your trades so that you know where the stock should go and not go. I see multiple entries on PCAR over the last 3 months. Perhaps you are relying too much on indicators and not focusing on price action.

Amy,
I second Brett's feelings. I just had a similar experience with PCP and finally decided to get out with only a 26% increase. I thought things were rolling over only to miss out on another $2 + move in the stock. Even today the stock has battled back because it is a strong stock right now.

No one can promise you a definite high return on PCAR, but it is worth waiting to see if it breaks out here.

I was questioning the same thing today on whether or not a head and shoulders is startig to form on this one. Unfortunately we won't know until a few more trading days.

Look back on your trades to see if you can detect where you cut profits short and discipline yourself not to do it next time. I'm right so many times but bail as soon as it starts to turn down because I trade a very small accoun and need to preserve capital.

Good luck.

Gary
Boston

Oscillators.....

I have been learning to watch price action and volume. I pay little attention to MACD or Stochastics. I like trading the patterns and support bounces.

I am learning to trade exactly like Brett said...buy at support/resistace..sell accordingly.

I am now learning/trying to figure out this ATR....

My biggest mistakes were self sabotage also Amy....

Brett,

I couldn't agree with you more about looking at too many oscillators. I have considered not looking at them unless I am questioning a stock being overbought, but I can even see that in the price action.

I don't put enough emphasis on the overall trend. I focus too much on daily price movement and those stinkin' oscillators.

I appreciate you laying it on the line. I need that.

Gary,

Thanks for the suggestion to review my trades. I did this earlier in the week. That's how I discovered I am screwing myself over. I am right on the anticpated move, and I do bail out to early. Now, I think it is staying disciplined enough to allow the stock to move. Everyone mentions patience. I thought I had it, but I think I am just now grasping it.

Thanks for your help,
Amy

All my trades rallied back up today...says something for waiting for the last hours of the day to make decisions....

In the past, I would have gotten out of PCP today, CTSH, even X and others on other down days. I would have botten out of GRP on 4/2, but waited till the end of the day, and here I am a couple days later at a higher return IF I exited, which I have not...

I attribute this newly found discipline to Jeff and Brett for their reiterations on this.

thanks...

Amy/Brett/Gary,

The thing for me has been entry points. I can't tell you the number of times I looked at a stock that had a phenomenal trend and I refused to take the time to wait for it to come back to support. "What if it doesn't come back and I miss out?" types of thoughts would force me in just as it was peaking and then started re-tracing. It would re-trace to my limit of 1.5% of my account... I'd bail out, and then it would turn around and charge back up. Catherine would smack me around for a while, and then I'd do it again. I guess that would mean that my exits sucked too, on those ones, but they actually were pretty good on the winners.

I think Brett and Gary were spot on in that everyone needs to find their comfort zone. So far, for me, it's catching support bounces on upward trending stocks. I haven't gotten really comfortable with some of the break-out patterns, as I find they can be finicky and re-trace a fair bit (sometimes) before either heading up, or down. Strong trend-lines, however seem to bounce off support much more frequently and are much easier to bail out of with very small losses. But this is just what I have found comfortable.
I've been out all day so don't have a thing to offer except a "Happy Easter" to everyone. My Iron Chicken will make a touch more money over the long weekend. It was a good week. Thanks again to Jeff for doing this blog, and to everyone for an overwhelming number of great trades.

Chris and Catherine

One thing I love about this Blog is you find that you are not in this alone. I know I hear that all the time that we all go through the same stuff but reading through Amy's post and then the replies reinforces why this community is so important to me as a trader. Awhile back I told you all that my paper account was more successful than my real $ and upon review found patience was the main issue. If the trade goes well you want to get out and lock in the small profit and if it goes against you, even for a bit, then we want to limit our loss. In the end we just have a basket of small losses.
A BIG thanks to all and happy Easter.
Jeff, sounds like you have a real trader in the making there.
Bob H.

Chris and Catherine,

I couldn't agree more. I found I was always chasing the trade and couldn't handle the retest. As of late I've focused more on simple support and resistance,lower risk entry's and that has been going much better. I'm in and looking at trades like CG,CF,WCG,FSLR,and DECK. Just trying to stack the odds in my favor. Strong trends,buy on the dips(as Jeff would say).Although sometimes I can't resist a good breakouts such as HWCC.

Hope everyone had a great week,have some fun this weekend and see ya all on monday.

Sarah

P.S. Amy,

I'm in PCAR as well, and although I don't like the pullback the trend is in tack. Normally I too would have bailed,but I'm trying to staying disciplined and review the resaons why I took the trade,giving bounce plays a little more time to develop. Since support has not been broken I choose to hang in. We'll see what happens.

Sarah

amy,
thanks for sharing your comments as i can also relate. what has been working for me is when my position may consolidate or retrace from an original breakout/bounce, ill take half off and allocate those funds to another setup that has more profit potential for the near term. once my previous position bounces again, ill move capital back into that original position. if the position doesnt bounce back, ill get stopped out generally flat to slightly down. for example, i did this today on AMX. i bought just above $46 and sold half today and used that capital to commit to a bear call spread as a hedge on my DIA's to collect some theta over the long weekend. everyone on this blog is great and we are lucky jeff is kind enough to support us
have a great weekend all
brendan
ca