Some symbols to consider:

MSTR - Ascending Triangle
BYD - Bull Flag
SYNL - Bull Flag
OEH - Bull Flag
NVTL - Bull Flag
NICE - Symm. Triangle
CVNS - Support Bounce
BRCM - Support Bounce
DE - Support Bounce
PLCM - Support Bounce

John O'Shea

Debbie,
I am not familiar with Stacy's talk, but the way i learned to draw the fib lines is from top to bottom on the incline (uptrend) or from bottom to top on the decline (down trend). Honestly i don't think it really matters if you draw them from top to bottom or vice versa, it is all in how you interpret them as support and resistance. BUT i would like to hear more about what Stacy had to say in Orlando, if you could share the "cliff" version with the blog.

Glen,
I'm looking forward to your "scalping syst" for the $SPX.

?? JBX ?? am i looking at the right chart?? it looks to me like a sideways trend since the end of Feb with resistance very near, i would need to see a break above $71.60 with good volume before i would consider it as a trade.....besides, i remember cramer recommending this one a while back !!! that alone is enough to make me step back !!!

POT ??? i see a sideways channel b/n $169 - $150 since early Feb....no buy signal yet...

AVB needs to break below $125 before i would consider a trade, it has acted as major support since nov 06

ATI .....good set up, but no volume

Stephen,
I like the set up on TTWO, thanks for sharing.

and last but not least, i like the looks of BGC

I hope no one is offended by my 2 cents, but this is what i see...

oh yeah, Jeff, can't wait to see what you have planned for the future of the blog !!!

good night/morning to all,

Tonya W
daytona beach

I read that people were looking for bearish plays yesterday and figured I would finally contribute. Here are a few bearish plays on my watchlist that are getting close…

PRAA – a symmetrical triangle nearing the end. All we need is volume to the downside. I see a $7 move.

WTI – approaching diagonal resistance. Could find support in the high $27’s. A lower low is possible. However, for all those who pay attention, Oil and Gas Operations are moving up on the big chart quite rapidly. Very little risk at resistance.

GYMB – is approaching downward sloping resistance and has been in a good size downward channel since mid November. Very little risk at resistance.

COF – is currently retesting a descending triangle breakout. Anything in the Consumer Financial Services sector looks good for a bearish move. Very little risk at resistance.

SLM – A couple days away from diagonal resistance. The downward trend has slowed a bit but doesn’t seem to be stopping the train yet.

BRCM – Maybe another semiconductor stock would be better but if it bounces off downward sloping resistance tomorrow, we are looking at a possible $3 move or 10% of the equity.

Please give any feedback if I am missing something(s).

John
Rhody, Oregon

POT, PCP, METH....LOL...

I am bearish on:

CRK and COKE......LOL

HOG....

Bear flag, at resistance @ $60.00..(earnings soon....)

BIDU...at support, just watching...looking for a break..

I am bearish on ICE, though not taking a trade..

Bullish on OEH and DRYS, waiting for a signal....

John,
Out of all your stocks I like SLM the most, but earnings are MIA. They're due out around 4/16 but are not showing up on the charts.

Beware the earnings.

Tonya W, Stacy's talk in Orlando was worth the price of admission on it's own and you, especially would have enjoyed it as it was talking about day trading the SPX. My brain overloaded on day 1 and I can't wait to get the DVDs in a couple of weeks. It's too bad we couldn't post it on here as it was a worthwhile course... but of course that would infringe copyrights and could involve the police... and having been into POT last year for a few months... and had HOG for a while, too, so who knows where a POThead on a Harley may lead. It can't be good.

I'm running a 25K race through the bush of Ontario with only a map and a compass to find 20 checkpoints on the weekend. I'm thinking NKE could take a shot in the arm, as we all know my involvement with a stock can have wild implications. Does anyone know who makes Advil? I'll be downing it by the barrel on Sunday, I think. Look for their stock to pop.

Chris and Catherine

EARNINGS!!!!!

Just a quick note to remind everyone of the dire consequenses of owning an option over earnings. There's a ton of stuff we're all talking about on the blog that have earnings coming up this month. Speaking from experience (Just have a look at MA on 2/16 when they crushed analysts earnings estimates) Unless you've hired a troup of Boy Scout Accountants to analyse the numbers and Sherpas to carry the paperwork... be afraid... be VERY afraid of earnings.

But that's just me.

Chris and Catherine

Good morning all!

Office is getting carpeted today so I will not be at the computer to watch the action or read the blogs.

My stops are set and hopefully it will be an up day, as I am currently in all bullish plays.

Thanks for the post on bearish plays, I'm watching the trend closely and have money ready to jump into a couple if need be.

Good luck!!

Gary
Boston

Hello all,

I was wondering if anyone else is interested in hearing what Jeff has to say about trading earnings. I know we have all been taught that it is taboo and you never hold over earnings - but the man did say he went 5 for 7 in earnings plays (or something to that effect). What do you think Jeff, can you pass along any tips for this earnings season?

stephen

Stephen,

I second the motion.

Anyone else in on SNDA?

C & C..

I did get into ATI yesterday...

SNDA was not on my radar...

I have played earnings by buying calls two weeks into earnings release, and a day or so before selling my position.

Usually people will want to bet on the earnings of a stock. You could sell before the news, unless you see extreme volume spikes and that usually tells you that some insider knows something or word has leaked. Last season a lot of the stocks that were breaking out or about to break out reached the peak of the pattern right after earnings and also right after earnings.

Also a pattern forms because of buying and selling interest, if the pattern is there right before earnings I like to take it.

Jeff what say You?

David S

TSO is looking sweat

I say FDS is toast, trapped under the MA and failing to bounce.

Keep an eye out for TSL breaking out of Symm Triangle. FSLR breaking out of a flag. Also missed HOC this morning. Looking for a pullback with a stop just below the 30 day to get long.
RTP was my big mover from yesterday. Ascending Triangle Break with volume. I think it looks like good things for RTP.

Stephen, TTWO does look like a good set-up...thank you

Jamie

Went long HOC earlier this morning and exited half my trade with 14% gain. Not too bad a start to the day! Will exit rest of trade unless we get a lot more volume... only up a little over average now.

lisa

DRYS......Keep it on todays radar..

Lisa,

why did you exit HOC? Looks like a great bounce and a run to new highs.

David S,
I hear your logic on buying earnings. But I repeat my earlier suggestion. Look at MA over it's last earnings. Volume started to pick up a few days before earnings (nothing outrageous, but still it was increasing) and for 3 straight days before earnings, the stock was up. It looked like a sure-fire winner over earnings to me.

Brett, I'm seeing your point on AL. The triangle looks like it's a bit extended to me and we may, in fact, be past it's apex. BUCY I'm not so sure about. I think your take on FDS is correct, too, my friend.

My 401k is up 50% more than it was yesterday and my options are up virtually the same amount as yesterday. Huh... go figure.

GOOG looks like it's stuck... and AAPL seems to have formed a cup and handle... could it be that $100 may happen yet? The Master of Mochas (white ones) should have some thoughts on that.

CME seems to have broken out of it's triangle with a vengeance, but there's no volume to support it. And earnings are coming up. Brrrrrrrr.

Chris and Catherine

Chris-

I see your AAPL cup but to wait 3-4 months for a $10 move on a $95 stock, it seems like there's better plays elsewhere. The ONLY thing that would intrigue me is that it's nearing $100.

Chris and Catherine:
It all makes sense, but I did not see a definitive pattern break or about to break on MA before earnings. But look at ACL nice pattern and buying volume right before announcement, almost same set up right now. Yes you are taking a gamble but that is the name of the game, you are also taking a gamble before earnings because there could be a downgrade, bad news, etc. You could use Jeff's strategy and measure the pattern and buy out of the money calls if the pattern works then you get rewarded if not then you knew what your risk was and maybe use it as bear spread (not Jeff's Strategy).

Last quarter a lot of the breakouts occurred during earnings. Maybe that is why the pattern forms that way.

I think in this game you have to take the exuberance of others, if you sell right before earnings and the underline is being trumped up because everybody thinks they will beat then that is good as well.
I think ascending triangles should work best with this strategy. Continuation triangles, most likely to go either way.

David S

C and C,

What are you looking at on AL? I am not sure I understand the comments on "extended" or past it's apex.

Amy

David S
Oooooo, nice analysis on trading earnings. You've obviously put more thought into this than me. I looked at MA and thought "Huh, that's interesting... let's buy some and see what happens." Sort of like my comment a few strands ago... You mean we're supposed to have a PLAN????

Amy, If you get down to the nitty gritty, the AL triangle could be drawn so that the apex actually formed a week ago. This means all this sideways movement up to yesterday was sort of outside the triangle, making it a questionable play. I think you got into it yesterday, yes? I wouldn't worry about it as it popped yesterday on good volume and today it's pulled up from a red day to a black one. I still think it could move but I'd only bet Jeff's money on it (mine's all tied up in other stuff) but he's not giving any of it away.

Go figure.

Brett, I was only trying to goad you out for a comment on it. I still remember your comment a couple of months ago about "$100 in the next week!!!" I think you're right though, if it breaks 100 it could get moving again.

Chris and Catherine

The IYR (real Estate ETF)is weak today. So I started looking in there for some bearish set-ups.

Came up with AVB.

Is that the beginning of the right shoulder ?

I am looking at as a bear flag break. Anybody see that with me ? Volume is light.
There may be some others in this area weak. I am just a little busy to do some more digging right now.

Jamie

Jamie,

You are looking too short term. Back out to a 9-month chart and you may have an "a-ha!" moment. looks like a major complex h&s forming. I wouldn't take that trade until that major support at $125 breaks, though.

David,
Thanks for your thoughts on trading through earnings. I am still not qualified to do it.

Chris and Catherine, I originally drew my triangle and looked for a breakout a few weeks ago. I continued to redraw them as the breakout never occured. I wondered if this made a valid signal. If anything, I have my exit in place.

Amy

Hi Guys

This should be fun..... (haha -who do I sound like?)

Looking at IPS, what do you guys think? Is it exhausted or flagging...? Is it gonna take off again.

Jodi
Canuck

Hi Jodi,

Looks like a flag to me. Notice how the volume has been decreasing as the stock pulled back the last few days. It's probably going to run again. It also looks like a low risk point to add to the position. I would give it a few more days and see how it plays out.

Lot of good conversation on the blog today.

Joel R.
California

Is it too early to say that IPS made a pre-earnings run up? This big of move is not typical for the stock.

Amy

Brett, re: HOC
I'm testing a new strategy that only looks for a 3% move in the underlying. I got it in an hour... not a bad play. However, I know the importance of letting winners run, and for now, i'm letting my other half run. Like I said earlier, volume on the move up was not bad, but not as much as I'd like for a move this "strong".

Can't lose money taking winning trades off. Thanks for asking.

lisa

HNSN bouncing off support.

MikeH

RATE..Re-test H & S, 10pt move..??

Lisa,

I urge you to reconsider that philosophy. If you're only willing to take a 3% move on the upside, what is your downside risk? enormous. Your losers will wipe out your winners pretty fast.

I am not sure if anyone has mentioned this one or not:

FAF

-stephen

It's funny, First American (FAF) owns a 30% stake in the company I work for. I haven't looked at their stock in a while, up almost 40% in the last 3 months.

I guess the sub-prime woes are not affecting title companies.

Joel R.
California

Thanks to Jeff for the blog and all you bloggers out there. Great to see all the activity on the blog. Perhaps others will find opportunities in my positions as I have in others. I trade a combination of stocks and options:

LONG:
AFFX (Bought stock on 3-15 broke out of bull flag on 3-30)
AFL (Stock - very profitable held for a long time)
AH (Stock bought yesterday)
BA (Stock bought yesterday on bounce)
FSLR (Stock since 3/21 on Asc. triangle breakout - recent retest/bounce)
GRP (May $55 CALLS since 3-21 - approaching target and earnings)
HNSN (Bought stock today - Thanks MikeH)
KFT (Own stock due to Altria spin off)
LVS (Stock - Down in this but see a bullish trend change now)
MO (Stock since 3/2 - recovering well since KFT spin off - profitable)
NYX (Stock bought on bounce on 3/21)
PCAR (Stock bougth on bounce on 3/29)
RIG (Bought stock on 3/21 symm triangle breakout - bul flag now could be an opportunity to add)
SII (Bought CALLS yesterday. Thought I was seeing a bull flag breakout - down today)
SII (Bought stock on bounce on 3-21)


SHORT:
CAL (Owned June $40 PUTS since 3-27. Getting close to my stop out now)
RATE (Short Stock - currently a loser but looks like its headed back down)

Perhaps others will find opportunities in there. I also welcome any opinions - esp. on RATE and CAL.

I'm so net long it isn't funny. I'm looking at a bullish market and won't start to hedge unless I see weakness.

Thanks again Jeff and all you bloggers out there.


Brent in San Antonio

OOps above last Long one was not SII but TS. Bought TS bounce on 3-21.

Love the blog

Brent in San Antonio

Lisa,
I was just about to write to you when I saw Brett's response to you. I agree with Brett whole heartedly. One of the first things I read when I started this whole options thing is that the quickest way to lose money in options trading is to take your profits too early and letting your losses run. Trust me, you can lose money by taking your profits early.

Chris and Catherine.

PS anyone looking for a bear trade have a look at BIDU.

Yeah Lisa,

I recall teaching this to you back during our 1 on 1 sessions.

However, we can't assume she is letting losses until she confirms it.

Lisa, get in here with a rebuttal!

TEX

I bought a may call on 3/16.....

It has a hit a wall....

should I stay or should I go...I am frustrated with it.

ALL COMMENTS WELCOME!

Anyone take a breakout trade on KLAC (besides me, of course).

Also, love the bearish setup on GYMB.

Dang Brett....

KLAC..

Where did this come from...another not on my radar...

Everyone loves a deal, check out the action on Big Lots - BIG (formerly Pic N Save). Look at it on the one year chart.

Joel R.

Harry S.

Lost your #..

Ouch, you guys! In the first post I said I was testing a new system. This is not the way I trade normally, but HOC had enough of a breakout that I wanted to share the symbol and get some of you in on the action.

The breakout was good enough for me to only get out of 1/2 my position for a 30% gain (not 14 as I commented earlier). The system is a swing trade system that gets the trader out v. quickly whether profitable or not.

The losses are a 1% move down, so my wins are always greater than my losses! Fear not, Jeff, you taught me well.

I didn't say I liked the system, only that I traded it, and it got me a return I liked in just a few hours.

Thanks for the concern though... I like that someone (plural) is looking out for me, and that feels great.

I've let RIO run for 3 weeks. I'm a happy girl.

lisa

Lisa,

we only speak from experience. If your system works, that's all that matters. However, i've had many mornings where that 1% loss i figured in gapped down to a 20% or 30% loss. it takes a LOT of 3% winners to cover that one. Unless you're closing positions at the end of every day.

Lisa,
A good system is the system that works for you. I have tested a few and am still looking for that "comfy fit" that gives me the returns without causing Malox moments every day. RIO's been on a tear... way to go. Are you going to hold it over earnings? (enquiring minds need to know).

Speaking of Malox moments, my 105/110 channel I need MA to stay in for the next 2 1/2 weeks is working out pretty well so far (yes the dreaded Iron Chicken) but causes me to wonder about my sanity. Mind you Catherine's been questioning it for years.

There have been lots of awesome stuff on the blog this week. Thanks to everyone who's contributing. I don't think I'd have time to follow a chat line... this blog is just perfect for us.

Chris and Catherine