Everyone,
I took a position in PCAR today. Tired on sitting on the sidelines with this one.
Also got a nice entry on CEG at 90.
Check out GLBC and DE forming a nice ascending triangle.
Rd

spf for a bear play

david s

Yes, I'm watching DE too!

Anyone still in XHB? I held on yesterday and today is looking much better.

Ann

Jeff,

I would love to see a post on a technical strategy for determining when a bounce is a bounce.

I always seem to late or anticipate and don't get the bounce. I need a better rule set for the entry on this situation.

MikeH

Wouldn't you know it. I bailed on my AVB put when it formed that new high at 134. Pffffft! I'll be back in if it breaks... MikeH

Hi folks,
I'm mad as he#* at WCG today. It's taken away every cent I had made on it (and then some.) Don't know if breaking it's diagonal support is as important as the horizontal support at $85. I think I'll hold on until it breaks through $85. I hate seeing all those juicy profits disappear... this is why I sold DRYS when it appeared to be peaking. Meanwhile it has kept soaring.... Sigh.

Bottom Feeder... AVB has huge volume today... looks like it could be heading back down.

Ann... I sold my XHB yesterday and probably should have held on, but it had gone up so far yesterday, that it looked like it had broken it's trend.

DE is looking like a good triangle... probably a while before it breaks.

Jeff, last night I said to Catherine "It sure looks like VSEA is ramping up to good earnings. Good volume the days preceding earnings and rising price. Probably should have bought into it." AND LOOK AT IT!!!! Meanwhile WCG tanks.

It's a frustrating day, but the good thing is that we're still going to be 'way up on the week.

Chris and Catherine

SLB Symmetrical Triangle may be on the verge of a good pop...making nice traction upwards today.

VIP has been trading sideways for a while, may also be coiling for an upwards pop.

I've been in Bear play with SPF, hanging in there, it looks like it may be headed our way!

I have a small position in MLM, looks great!

WCG, I'm still holding on as well, yes, have lost all of my profits, but that's the name of the game. Historically, it doesn't seem to stay below the 30-day MA long and then pops back up, if it doesn't I'll bail.

Chip H.

Chip, i'm not here to tell you what to do, but you could put that money to better use somewhere else.

Guys, just completed a trifecta...CMG burrito for the third straight day for lunch. You know what that means? Your accounts are cleared for takeoff.

I just want to share something with you guys, not because I want to brag, because I want to add to this blog.

About two weeks ago, I bought a 55 call on bud, I bought it expensive as always because I thought after earnings bud was going to move that much or close to it, that was my technical analysis based on the triangle.

Earnings came and of course it tanked. If it wasn't for my perseverance I would just have sold my position for 10 c and move on. The day before, I went through this scenario and I said well if they miss I hope they miss by a lot so I can turn it into a spread.

That day, news is out, it is tanking I decided to sell the 50 call against my 55. Not thinking It was going to go through 50 but getting close to it so I can gain time value.

The moral to the story I made 65c cents total on a $1.15 perceived loss. So I turned a loss to a gain.

It does not work all the time it has to move against you decisively.

So next time you have a tanking position, hope it tanks and salvage the trade. Don't panic!!! just make sure the opposite trend really continues and it is not a head fake.

David S

QCOM looks like a nice setup, retest of an ascending triangle breakout. Thanks Geoff, I'll be picking up some contracts at the end of the day.

XHB looks like a reverse head and shoulders to me. I know in the macro picture homebuilders are likely to continue downward, but from a purely technical perspective this looks like it confirmed a reversal yesterday (breakout with volume) and is retesting the neck-line today.

Long: PCP, SLB, SHLD, GOOG, ATI, HWCC

Short: CME, LOW when it breaks 30, still looking for others

Have a good weekend bloggers, the dialog this week has been phenomenal.

Joel R.
California

David,
That is a great example of how to turn a losing trade into a winning trade. Good work. I just take my loss and run...very fast.

I closed my trade in KBH yesterday. The setup reminded me of my CAL trade in April. Both stocks broke out of their diagonal resistance. Brett pointed out that the diagonal resistance appears to be a new support line. For now, I will leave homebuilders alone.
I would also like to hear more about the bounce entry...I am not looking to pick the bottom. But more often than not, I am either too early or too late. I think if I could do a better job on entry, I could put risk/reward more in my favor.
Amy
Long: BNI, DKS, PCAR, ISIL, CVH
Short: CAL

Addicts,

I don't know about you, but DECK looks like as good a triangle breakout as i've seen. great target, great movement. The target puts you right at expiration day in June. Beautiful.

Brett,

Which were you referring to, that is "put that money to better use somewhere else"? Thanks,

Chip H.

Amy:

The Way I do the bounce entry is when it is close to support. I do not worry about being 100 percent right on my entry, but I worry about being 100 percent wrong if it brakes support. Classic example, is ARW it should bounce if it does then you are good if it brakes then you can either salvage or get out fast. But remember these supports are made with crayons so the brake has to be decisive with volume to get out. To get in I do not look for great volume but continuation of the trend.

Listen to Jeffs videos, he likes those because of the low risk you have a line in the sand that tells you to get out.

Hope that helps

David S

PLCE looks like a resistance bounce to me. I'll probably be in this one by the end of day. part of a retest from a sym triangle breakout. still a ways to go to the downside.

Chip,

I meant dump WCG and buy something breaking out today.

um...was that all you addicts buying up DECK after my post? Man what a move.

Hey Chris, "I've been working on the Railroad.."

AVB - looks like support at 125 is going to hold again. 40 minutes left in trading.

JEF - stock retested the inverted H&S and is breaking back up today on big volume. Or if you just want to call that a flag, its breaking out of the flag.

MikeH

David,
Thanks for the comments on support bounces. So, a decisive break with volume to exit at support. That will be one for me to learn more about. In the past, I get when it closes below my support line. I don't even consider the volume. It seems that I get out just to watch it go back up.

I also found Jeff's post about support bounces in the archives...excellent read.
Amy

I wanted to puke last night, I looked at DECK and they killed earnings (good kill), then the heads started to speak and they did not make any sense, like they wanted the stock to tank for some reason.
I am glad I held to my calls, I hope this is not a fake so we can make some money and send Jeff dinner on us (is there an Outback in Utah?)
I almost doubled on my calls but did not have the guts.

David S

Brett,

Thanks for the comment on WCG...I've been thinking about dumping, it would be a relatively small loss.

Got into DECK on your suggestion, looks like a good call!

Thanks,

Chip H.

Anybody seeing a June55 Call on WFR? Looks like a mover after the earnings shock to me ... Poke holes through that to help me out ... :) Thanks.....

Brett,
I'm already ticked at all the stuff I've missed today and my stupid WCG. CNI just proves that you can't bother with news and all that stuff... just go on the technicals. Nice call, buddy.

Have a good weekend everyone. I've got to sit back and re-load this weekend. I'm feeling somewhat rattled as the last two days took off a chunk (although not a big chunk) or our first day's earnings.

Chris and Catherine

Bailed on MLM yesterday it hit my target... good to see it was good to the one's that stayed in.

Danny