Tim,

Congrats on the CMG. I was really thinking of slapping a call on that, but my rules are against holding on earnings mostly because it has gone the opposite direction for me in the past, which hurts on a large emotional scale :P

Jeff,

I have an exit or tight stop at around 20.00 on AHM to the downside. Is this close to what you have as a support line there? When it gets close to this do you just get out and then if it breaks jump back in...?

moe_japan Does she trade or is she an imposter?

so I added a photo as suggested,don't why there's a white background. did I goof again?

Sarah,
I can't get anything but my pic to come up on the community view. I to have a white background. Need help please!!!

This comment has been removed by the author.

I think the white background shows up when you're logged in. I have a white background as well but neither of you two have a white background on my computer.

liz
pasadena, ca

Tim,

First off, congratulations on CMG. I didn’t have the guts to hold over earnings after the price action the two days prior. I got stopped out when it tanked the morning of earnings. Your 1000% gainer will certainly help on my thoughts below.

I know this comment may be a little late… I haven’t looked at your entries and exits but what it sounds like to me from reading a lot of your posts is that you may need to check your emotion at the door. We, as new traders, are emotional. That is the hard cold fact. My biggest mistakes have been made on emotion and today’s post, denial. Now, I may be too quick to give the hook on trades that slightly penetrate my S/R lines. My ISIL’s analysis on Monday for instance.

I am over the stress of my puts being up and calls being down. I got over this when I was so pissed off one day a month or so ago when the market was up BIG one day and I had the put/call debacle going down on my fifth consecutive down day. I said to myself as I was walking to my car to go to work in the driving rain (which it does almost every day in the foothills of Mt Hood from November through June), “this sucks, I want to throw in the f&#*@^g towel!”

Then it dawned on me that I never gave up on anything in my whole life. And that after careful analysis of my trades, I was right on my analysis, I was just going through a tough stretch. In April, I had less than 20% profitable trades and still made money; I added 2% on closed trades and 10% in account value which I closed yesterday and today. My biggest contributors were TSO 355% almost 6 weeks long, BW 286% 3 weeks long, NVTL 150% at over 6 weeks long.

You are on the right track. Stay the course!

Liz,
Thanks for the info. I'm new to this blogging thing and I thought I had made a mistake.

Jeff,
I wanted to send a special THANKS out to you for all the hard work you put into this blog. You have created a wonderful learning enviroment. You are a great inspiration to me and others as well.

Thanks Again,
Jeff Tighe (basstrader)
Pendleton, Indiana

P.S.
(Group Hug) You ALL rock.

Good morning everyone:
Tso not our friend this morning, Lvs could be a good put candidate.

David S

From the people who brought you ISIL...

The sequel: CNS: Trade of the Year.

Coming soon to a breakout near you.

Although Mil did not confess with good results the stock is still maintaining its upward trend
and Braking out

Mil
David s

Can someone PLEASE explain to me why my call option on IPS just imploded when it gapped up8pts. the news of a takeover good,so I thought. I had sept 160's@8.00 and this morning got stopped out at 1.60. TOS said the IV collasled.I'm sick over this trade. It did exactly what I wanted, and the reverse happened.It's a trade like this tha makes me want to QUIT!

advice please.

Sarah,

The only thing i can think of is that with a $160/share bid, there's little chance that the stock will trade higher. Therefore, your $8 time value is all you have left, and it isn't worth much if the stock won't clear $160. Now, if someone comes in and bids higher, you've got a shot.

Had you bought ITM options, you'd probably be capitalizing more on it (I would likely be in your shoes with OTM). You shouldn't want to quit because of this trade. If you sized it properly, it shouldn't hurt too bad.

I agree with Brett The stock would have to reach 161.80 for you to start making money, now that the unkown is taking out where the stock will reach there is no reason to pay a premium for that call.

Brett are you in TSO, I have the 120 call what do you think?

David S

take a look at NETL

Sarah,

Advising you to quit is probably the last thing you'd expect someone to advise you...so I'll leave that to someone else!

Just because your stock pick was bad doesn't make you a bad person. You need to march right on out there and show that stock that you are better than it! Pick another and it will sure to be a winner!!!

OK, I'm making myself laugh too hard here...sounds like bad advice I'd give my kids.

I've never heard of IV imploding like that on a takeover speculation. Let us know by end of day if the bid/ask follow. Maybe there's a lesson that sometimes with crazy things like this it's better to just have the mental stop? Since I work for a living, though, I know how hard that is to do.

Good luck,

Gary

.
Hey Brett,

Do us a favor and explain why CNS is going to be the trade of the year and your breakout logic?

Sarah, while I'm not in your trades, virtually all of my calls and puts are going the opposite direction today! Yikes... So don't quit or I might have to think the same thing! Hang in there!

Sarah,

Yikes, what can I say? I was going to post comments on your trade but by the time I got in here, Brett had answered and said exactly what I was going to say. The only hope with OTM options is that one day the stock will reach that price and right now, obviously, sentiment out there is saying it's not too likely.

I did exactly the same with TSO. Sold my ITM options yesterday for 250% gain and got so wrapped up in the climb it was making that I decided to buy OTM May calls on the hope it would pop today. It HAS popped... but the wrong way. I was willing to lose the whole trade (my $2.12 calls are now worth $0.30) yesterday, but now don't feel so good about it. Your situation has made me realize that even if it had popped a bit, I probably would have lost money on this trade. Both our trades have taught me a huge lesson which I will take and hold on to. Holding over earnings is risky in so many ways.

Right now I feel like selling everything and going back to bed(DECK is down, AVB is up, BBY is up... sound familiar?) as I'm having one of THOSE days. TSO anounced record earnings, and a stock split and a doubling of their dividend.... and it's down 7 bucks. As the giraffe would say... Mother F@#%&@.

Now excuse me while I go wait for Acceptance. It's gotta be around here somewhere. The good thing is I KNOW there are lots of good trades out there. I will find them and exploit them to within an inch of their lives!

___________________________I WILL OVERCOME!!!!_______________________

I'm not in TSO, i sold that one at $108. That's why i'm brilliant.

NETL is a nice uptrending stock.

I'm thoroughtly enjoying AMG, AH, CNS, ISIL and OO today.

Not so much enjoying AMR, BBY, CME, LCC and PENN.

Sarah, when you get to the bottom of what happened please let us know so we all learn from this. So sorry you got hit with this. Hopefully your position sizing saved you but it is really tough to see a great winner turn like this.

Hey here's an idea. TSO is still an awesome company with a bright future. This pullback is a perfect time to get in. IV has just dropped off the edge of a cliff (or out the hotel window... as I was thinking this morning) and some long options should be pretty cheap right now. Even with this drop it is still above it's support lines.

Hmmmm.

To All,

Brett explained it perfectly about what happened to the option. And yes I did position size correctly. But it really makes me think twice now about buying OTM strikes(jeff pleeas chime in on this). What is frustrating was that my tech's were spot on and I still got punched in the gut(that's what caused the quitting reference). As they say I just paid for information, hope you will all gain from this. What about the saying if you buy OTM , you will soon be out of money.

Thanks all.

Sarah,
My heart goes out to you. IPS bit me really bad on Apr 11. I sold (emotionally) and it gapped up the next day. That one was the toughest on me because I didn't stick to my game plan. It must be frustrating when you stick to your game plan and still it doesn't work out. Stupid Stock.

Brett,
I love your confidence. You are soo brilliant. I wasn't expecting that comment, when I read it, I giggled right out loud.

Jodi
Canuck

okay, I don't usually leave any stock trade stuff because I'm still feeling a little insecure, I guess. I'm much better at giving emotional support and computer help. But this morning I'm really excited about ISRG. Oh, and ISIL. CHD is okay... waffeling... and QCOM is getting there. Slowly...

liz
pasadena, ca

TSO is great, Chris, but i think it can be had on a bounce $5 lower than this.

Chris: I sold all my calls on the run up of TSO, but right before earnings I bought a small amount to play the earnings game. I came close on pulling the trigger and getting out but I guess the giraffe in me is not letting me. Also that small support at 115 117 is holding. I like the fact that it will pay a better dividend and a lot of people like to buy into that, I have May expiration and I will have to decide by the end of the day.

support holding, dividend play, and giraffe

David S

Jeff K,
Master Talk was terrific last night. I laughed when you made the comment about ," taking the training wheels off ".
You talked about entries last night. Which brings me to PLCE...

You traded PLCE on Symm Triangle break on 3/28 or so. Looking at a bigger picture I see a descending tringle from the top in Nov '06. Today it looks to be bouncing down off that resistance line. Good entry ? target is a 20 point move over 5 months.

Jamie

The Geek Squad are dying off one by one, picked off by my put arrows. Pretty soon there will be no more of those black and white buggy cars. No more bright yellow ticket signs. They continue to fight on, but our triangle fortress is strong.

Today is the last day they attack us with their sticker guns when we want to return something. The last time they try and sell us an overpriced warranty that we don't need. The last day the guy at the door looks at us sideways and checks for receipts.

Today BBY will fall.

Loved the DECK trade. I just sold off 2/3 of my position and am letting the remaining winner run (profit is in account already).

In AH, up big today. Set stop for 2/3 to lock in profit as if/when it pulls back.

In MUR, up. Again, set stop for 2/3 to lock in profit.

Short - FFIV.

Current losers - TTWO and HWCC. Time will tell if they come back or expire (that was my plan, small positions in each).

Love the blog, Jeff's thought process, and the pictures!

Strat, congratulations, but i think you're going to wind up leaving a lot of money on the table.

Brett... I'm not enjoying AMR either today ... but do you concur that history shows a 3 day gain then falls back? I'm having a hard time deciding to stay in or not ... it's not at my stop yet but I'm being vigilant (or maybe overly cautious) here ... If you could shed a little of your thought process would be greatly appreciated. I have a 19 stop to drop on this one..... THANKS!

_________I'VE GONE BLIND!!! I CAN'T SEE!!!_________

No wait, it's just really foggy outside. Sorry 'bout that.

I went for a run to try to work some of the cobwebs out of the system (Joey Tomato's makes awesome marguarhitas) and checked my holdings. This morning I was down nearly 10% on my account, and when I got back, it was "only" 2%. Never thought I'd be happy to see a 2% loss.... but I am. The moral.... if you're not happy with your trades, go for a run. But not in the fog. I almost hit a Boy Scout who was helping an old lady accross the street and that CAN'T look good on my resume.

The reason I mention this is yet another poke in the forehead... you HAVE to wait for the end of the day to place those trades. If Jeff uses my chart I sent him (which he may not, because it's not spectacularly stupid like some of my trades... but I'm out of town and my trading journal's at home) I got into BBY intraday and it is biting my butt right now.

Another rule I have is... stick to your rules. If you don't stick to your rules, make sure you're married to someone who's not afraid to run you over with the car when you break the rules. Catherine is a little tentative on this rule, and as such I continue to break the rules.

I think this post will be good for many people. It's almost therapeutic for me to type it.

Many people like to take profits. It provides instant gratification, it makes you feel successful. Especially in trading. Who doesn't go home after closing a winning trade and feel they can do this easily?

The problem is, if you do this long enough, you will see that all those quick gains you took (even if they're 30, 40, 50% gains) are more than offset by all those 'small' losses. A small loss in option trading is 20-50%. Maybe more.

So how do you win? You win by identifying large moves and having the EXPERIENCE and conviction to ride them. Today was a perfect example. I gave my father the AMR trade on the head and shoulders breakdown. This morning, he told me he was going to 'take his profits'.

Fine, i told him. But I wasn't. Why? Because I have a target price far lower than this price. Because stocks don't go straight down. Because on a slight retracement, i get another opportunity to add to the trade on a flag breakdown. Because I'm not satisfied eating meat loaf when I can wait for the Porterhouse.

This is a very common problem that I've seen with traders. Actually not real traders, just friends of mine who think they can trade.

Is CME making any of you nervous today? It shouldn't. I'm actually delighted to see this bounce because i've been waiting for a flag. It's healthy for a consolidation.

Think about what I've said and incorporate that into your own trading ideas.

Am I perfect? Hell, no. I have been stopped out of trades that eventually rocket higher (TSO is one). But that was part of my exit plan. It wasn't the right plan, but I stuck it it. Now, I've learned to change some exit plans.

The point in all this is, when you spot a pattern and identify a target, do you have the conviction to wait it out? To sit out the rebounds and retests?

ICE ICE BABY- As I right this the price is 134.50 up $7 plus.

My stangle looked like death yesterday. I sold the PUTS about a half hour into the open for a .10 cent loss EVEN though the price had dropped $5 from when I bought them.
My calls had so much IV sucked out of them that they were worth 1.30 and I had paid 3.40 for them.

So I went from being up 200 before earnings to down 1000 plus at market open.

Right this minute I am up about 150 on the whole trade and would like to heare what the group thinks I should do.

What is the target or sell price on ICE?

I originally said I needed a 10 point move for this to work and it has went from 123 to 134.50.

You can blog back and I will try to check or email me at dburg@clearwire.com

Jamie,

I like the trade, but have a hard time with the target price. It would be asking a lot for this stock to lose almost half it's value. Set your targets smaller, and work your way through them. But I do like the set-up.

Brett,
I hope you were joking about brilliant for getting out of TSO at 108. That thing made us lots of money and went up to 120 something before coming down after earnings. It looks like it might be right at support and ready to head up again.